COVID – 19 update

22nd March 2020

I thought I should do a quick update on COVID-19, as some interesting and important information has been published in Italy. Looking at deaths in various age groups, underlying conditions etc.

It can be seen here

Points of greatest importance

  • Far more men are dying than women, with a ratio of around 3:1 – reasons unknown
  • Mean age at death is 78.5 years (women slightly older than men)
  • 2% of those dying had no comorbidities (other diseases e.g. heart disease, diabetes, cancer)
  • ~50% had three or more comorbidities.


  • 1% were coughing up blood (haemoptysis)
  • 8% had diarrhoea
  • 40% had a cough
  • 73% had difficulty breathing (dyspnoea)
  • 76% had a fever.

[5.7% were admitted with no symptoms at all – not clear what they came in with. Presumably admitted with something else, then developed the symptoms later]

What did they die of?

96.5% died of acute respiratory distress syndrome.

‘Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) occurs when fluid builds up in the tiny, elastic air sacs (alveoli) in your lungs. The fluid keeps your lungs from filling with enough air, which means less oxygen reaches your bloodstream. This deprives your organs of the oxygen they need to function.

ARDS typically occurs in people who are already critically ill or who have significant injuries. Severe shortness of breath — the main symptom of ARDS — usually develops within a few hours to a few days after the precipitating injury or infection.

Many people who develop ARDS don’t survive. The risk of death increases with age and severity of illness. Of the people who do survive ARDS, some recover completely while others experience lasting damage to their lungs.1

Treatment is with oxygen and ventilation but has a low success rate in the very elderly.

Deaths under 50 years of age

To date (March the 20th), 36 of 3200 (1.1%) COVID-19 positive patients under the age of 50 have died. In particular, 9 of these were younger than 40 years, 8 men and 1 woman (age range between 31 and 39 years). For 2 patients under the age of 40 years, no clinical information is available; the remaining 7 had serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity).

There do not seem to have been any deaths below the age of thirty.

ACE-inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers (ARBs)

There has been much debate as to whether or not ACE-inhibitors (angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors) and ARBs may increase the risk of death [these drugs are widely used to lower blood pressure]. This is because COVID-19 appears to enter the body through ACE2 receptors – found in high concentrations in the lungs and can cause upset to the neurohormonal system where ACE, and ACE receptors, play an important role.

The data from Italy is that:

‘Before hospitalization, 36% of COVID-19 positive deceased patients followed ACE-inhibitor therapy and 16% angiotensin receptor blockers-ARBs therapy. This information can be underestimated because data on drug treatment before admission were not always described in the chart.’

That is 52% who were on one, or the other (it is very rare for anyone to be on both). That was clearly, as they state, an underestimate. Possibly a considerable underestimate.

Knowing this, it is important to know how many (elderly people) take either of these drugs, to see if there is a correlation between taking them and dying from COVID-19. The figures from Italy are not clear at all. However, the latest data on prevalence of high blood pressure in the adult Italian population was, around 52% (This is an absolute maximum).2

However, the number of people known to have had their high blood pressure recorded by their general practitioner is around 20% 3 . Which means that most people with high blood pressure are not treated with anything.

Bringing these figures together, it can be estimated that a maximum of 10% of the Italian population are taking antihypertensive medications. These figures may be a little out of date, and these data are not specifically for the age group of, around, 80 years of age. Here the figures on diagnosis of hypertension, and use of antihypertensives will probably be higher, possible double.

So, we can say that 10% of the adult population is treated for hypertension, and that this may be around 20% in those aged around 80. Taking the figures one step further, it is estimated that about 67% of those who take antihypertensive in Italy use ACE-inhibitors, or ARB. 4

Bringing all of these figures together, it is likely the average percentage of eighty-year olds taking an ACE, or ARB is

67% of 20% of 52%x 2 = 14.0%

Which means that amongst 80-year olds ~14% are taking one, or other, of these drugs.

I cannot say either of these figures in carved in stone and I believe 14% is probably a overestimate. I wish there were more fully accurate figures to be had. So, what does this mean?

It means that:

  • A (probable) maximum of 14% of the elderly population in Italy are taking ACE-inhibitors/ARBs
  • A minimum of 52% of people in Italy who are dying from COVID-19 are taking ACE-inhibitors/ARBs.

Which suggests you are four times as likely to die from COVID-19 if you are taking one of these drugs, prior to contracting the virus. This, of course, does not take into account confounding variables – many of which are currently unknown. By a confounder I mean that people taking these drugs may have more comorbidities, such as heart disease, diabetes etc.

However, it remains a very strong signal, and I do not think it can be ignored, particularly in the light of the knowledge that the COVID-19 virus has a significant impact on the ‘ACE system’.

On this basis I would strongly recommend that elderly people, with any comorbidity, who is taking an ACE-inhibitor/ARB should look to change their antihypertensive treatment to something else – whilst the threat from COVID-19 is high.

I should point out this runs contrary to the advice from the authors of a study in the European Heart Journal 20th March:

SARS-CoV2: should inhibitors of the renin–angiotensin system be withdrawn in patients with COVID-19?

‘In conclusion, based on currently available data and in view of the overwhelming evidence of mortality reduction in cardiovascular disease, ACE-I and ARB therapy should be maintained or initiated in patients with heart failure, hypertension, or myocardial infarction according to current guidelines as tolerated, irrespective of SARS-CoV2. Withdrawal of RAAS inhibition or preemptive switch to alternate drugs at this point seems not advisable, since it might even increase cardiovascular mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients.’

It should be borne in mind though, that their advice does acknowledge that they had no evidence about the number of people who were taking ACE-inhibitors, or ARBs, who then died. The data from Italy came out a day after the EHJ article was published.

Of course, no-one can be certain about what exactly is happening. I cannot be certain, but the signal from Italy on ACE-inhibitors and ARBs, seems very strong, and concerning. Based on it, I think my advice would be to change medication, if possible.

Stating this, I am aware that most GPs will not change anything, unless they get instruction from the acknowledged experts. Unfortunately, this is likely to take far more time than many people actually have.





499 thoughts on “COVID – 19 update

    1. Gary Ogden

      Southern Memorial: ACE inhibitors end in -pril, and ARB’s in -tan. For example, Lisinopril is an ACE inhibitor; Losartan is an ARB.

      1. Gary Ogden

        Jeanette: If they end in -pril, they are an ACE inhibitor; if the end in -tan, they are an ARB, so Candesartan is an ARB.

  1. Jillm

    Very interesting. Thank you Dr Kendrick. Yesterday I watched a documentary from journalists I trust. They presents lots of data. Their conclusion was that COVID-19 is less dangerous than the average flu.

      1. Anon

        If I understand you correctly, you are aiming at an alternative explanation for the high mortality not being the virus alone, but the combination of the virus and those drugs.
        Very interesting. If true, this discovery could save many lives and a reduce the duration of the economic crisis.

        (For those who think that the economy is unimportant in situation, they should realise that a protracted depression would cause the death of many people over the next two years or more from lack of drugs, food, shelter, or violence or even suicide. So it is a very good thing that there is enough “cold blooded” people thinking in the future, the fine day when the disease is over.)

        One possible confounder is that some people do not take the medicines. They just get them for cheap, put it in a drawer and forget about them. When asked if they take the medication by their doctor, old people roll their eyes and say “yeah, yeah”. They don’t want to be scolded by the doctor for not being compliant. This is how many people manage to live past 90 in Italy, Spain and Greece. It is wasteful, but no one likes to just “do nothing” for the elderly. And the drug companies get money by selling drugs, not by making people actually take them.
        But it is very likely that there are many who are well educated citizens, who dislike wasting valuable things. I think it’s time to retreat and regroup.

      2. johnplatinumgoss

        I have read several reports speculating that this is a man-made virus, its incubation period is longer than flu viruses. Also as it seems to target the elderly, as you say, could it be a modern attempt at eugenics to deliberately weed out the old and vulnerable in an overpopulated world?

      3. AhNotepad

        I think all diseases target the elderly, but the diseases really target those without strong immune systems. Don’t rely on drugs, strengthen your immune system.

      4. andy

        johnp: I don’t believe anyone is out to get us, we have done it by ourselves. Look at the evidence compared to say 20 years ago, more obesity, more diabetes, more omega-6 seed oils, more sugar and fructose, more medically damaged seniors, more processed/packaged foods, soil depletion from Roundup resulting in less nutrition, etc..
        Longer incubation time could be a benefit by allowing immune system more time to fight off the virus. There are probably very few healthy seniors left that can survive this virus on their own.

      5. johnplatinumgoss

        Andy and the person who gave me the thumbs down. I used to believe in the honesty and integrity of governments. I never used to look for alternatives to what the television news told me to accept. It was a mistake. Now I am a cynical old man. Perhaps I deserve the thumbs down somebody gave an earlier comment because I dared to suggest that coronavirus-19 might be man-made. Perhaps I don’t. When people used to say similar things about HIV and AIDS I was more than sceptical. Then I saw this video.

      6. Joe

        Status of COVID-19
        As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

        The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

    1. Joe

      To Dr. Kendrick:

      “Meanwhile, according to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), “influenza and pneumonia” took 62 034 lives in 2001—61 777 of which were attributed to pneumonia and 257 to flu, and in only 18 cases was flu virus positively identified. Between 1979 and 2002, NCHS data show an average 1348 flu deaths per year (range 257 to 3006)”.

  2. Jenny11

    Just wondering what your view is on using intravenous Vit C? It appears to be cheap and effective in some cases. I’m thinking of the little reported trials in China & of Dr Paul Merick and his successful treatment of patients with sepsis.

    1. Beth Kydd

      Hi, agree vit C, see Andrew Saul. My lay understanding here is vit c would be excellent as it works at the epithelial and endothelial interface creating an environment not conducive to viral life. Also check pH levels and use Bicarb of Soda to amend as viruses are sensitive to pH. Dr Sircus writes clearly on this.
      However Dr Marick’s protocol also added in cortisone (?) steroid (?) for anti-inflammatory purposes in sepsis. I’ve read the steroid would not be helpful here at the cellular level in the lungs, but vit C is brilliant, probably due to the massive congestion present.
      Hope this helps a little

    2. Eric

      What bothers me about preemptive use of Vitamin C is that, mostly, it is an antioxidant.

      There have been studies that supplementation with antioxidants does not appear to do any good, and it probably even drives up cancer rates a little, maybe by shutting down ROS signalling.

      Any insights here?

      1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

        Vitamin C is an antioxidant. However, it has many, many, many other beneficial effect in the body. Protections against endothelial damage is probably most important in the case of COVID-19. It is called a vitamin, because it is ‘vital’ for human life.

      2. Beth Kydd

        Vitamin C is available in powder form today on sold by Peak Supplements, 1kg or 5kg bags, if you take 3-5,000mg a day or more if symptoms appear, where is that calculator? Easy to take as a spoonful in water or juice, maybe easier for some than tablets.

      3. Anna M


        It isn’t that simple. Vitamin C in higher doses is oxidant. So far as I understand, that is its killing power.

      4. AhNotepad

        Anna M, how does that work? acsorbate has a spare electron, so is anti-oxidant. I don’t see how using more of it can make it oxidant.

      5. DrS

        At high enough concentrations (attainable only by IV route), vit C will make peroxides and these can affect cancer. The gut tightly controls the absorption of vit C and won’t let blood level go up beyond ~200umol, so it’s good to have it in your gut to replenish the blood levels as the WBCs gobble it up to use to fight things. With IV use, it is possible to drive blood levels up 100x higher than oral intake which gives considerably effects than what we can get with oral intake.

  3. Göran Sjöberg

    Thank you for this information – exactly what I was looking for!

    As I interpret all this it is to keep away from NHS where they will put you on a number of drugs added to their diagnosis.

    To me the alternative medicine/life style is then the “solution” to all this mess and where your improved immune system then will help you to “survive” and die happily irrespective of any CVD.

    1. chris c

      Agreed! Big thanks to Malcolm for this and the previous post, and to all the other contributors.

      I was pondering how a disease could be relatively trivial in most people and yet kill some. Seeing as most of the deaths are in elderly folks with preexisting conditions, these are likely to be on “Old Fart Pills” – statins, ACE inhibitors, PPIs etc.

      There are a small number of deaths in young and apparently healthy folks. What could they have in common Vegans? Also on the same drugs or different ones? I predict some of this research will never be done.

      Once you get so ill you are hospitalised it is lights out for most. I find it hard to believe that doctors and nurses would be actively euthanasing people, but then there was the Liverpool Care Pathway. It appears they will be following Standards Of Care. Will those standards be changed in the face of the appalling results? I suspect not. I especially suspect the Chinese research into Vitamin C will be ignored in the West despite the results.

      The Anointed Have A Plan, and are unlikely to back down in the face of evidence the plan is not working. I’m surprised they have not yet made more efforts to shut down anyone who goes against The Narrative,

      What is actually happening looks more and more like an agenda of social control. When the shortages started in the supermarket it was all the good stuff – no President or Kerrygold, in fact hardly any butter but shelves of margarine. No 85% chocolate but stacks of the high sugar stuff. Lots of missing fresh and frozen veg but loads of high carb low fat processed foodlike substances. And you cannot buy more than two of anything so of course you will have to go shopping more often. So much for Social Isolating.

      Going downtown was like visiting a different planet, loads of veg and fruit in both shops, loads of meat in both butchers. I went to one of the farm shops and stocked up on frozen meat from their bursting freezers. I told them I was stocking up my own freezer and the didn’t try to stop me – very much the opposite, of course they exist by making a profit from selling stuff. Funny the supermarket doesn’t follow suit. Actually I suspect the rationing is coming from further up the supply chain.

      Perhaps I shouldn’t have written that, expect the next step to be closing all food shops other than supermarkets. Rationing? Dieticians in charge of what you are permitted to buy? The Horror!

      They even closed the public toilets, so if you need a leak you’re SOL.

      Fortunately there are a number of places I can walk not far away, without many people around, so I have been catching lots of rays. I walk up the hill and sit on a big rock facing west. So far I haven’t been stopped by the police but it;s only a matter of time.

      I spent the first fifty years of my life as a petri dish with minor chronic infections, and I used to catch every cold, flu and food poisoning bug going. Once I even reached the mythical 8 in the Bristol Stool Scale – that’s when the turd comes out as an aerosol and plasters itself over both arse cheeks, the bowl and the ceiling.

      In the last fifteen low carb/paleo/keto years I haven’t had the flu at all and have had about two actual colds. Sometimes I feel like I’m going to get a cold for a couple of days, then a few days feeling like I just had a cold, without the actual cold in between. I suspect this is my immune system blatting the invaders.

      I hope this will also stand me in good stead with the coronavirus, though someone pointed out the potential for a cytokine storm with one of the earlier “epidemics”.

      It looks for all the world as if They are trying to stop us being healthy and accept we are going to catch this thing and die. But as long as we Obey, it’s all good . . .

    1. Danny Evatt

      I agree. It seems the more we read and learn about this virus, it’s those that are not taking (or minimally) medications for various things, that are being gently passed by.

      I also read on a French medical blog (link below), that those taking Statins (and those with very low LDL) are also more prone to get sick and have issues with COVID-19.

      Best to stay healthy, eat few carbs and sugar, take vitamin C, take as few RX as possible, drink plenty of water, get sunshine and light exercise!

      1. andy

        Hi Danny!
        I have always wondered why someone on statins would have difficulty with phlegm accumulation in throat. Your comment inspired me to find out, stagnant cilia. A slow day and housebound.
        Motile’ (or moving) cilia are found in the lungs, respiratory tract and middle ear. These cilia have a rhythmic waving or beating motion. They work, for instance, to keep the airways clear of mucus and dirt, allowing us to breathe easily and without irritation.
        “When zebrafish embryos are treated with statins cilia dysfunction phenotypes including heart defects, left-right asymmetry defects and malformation of ciliated organs develop, which are ameliorated by cholesterol replenishment. HMG-CoA-R inhibition and other means of cholesterol reduction lowered ciliation frequency and cilia length in zebrafish as well as several mammalian cell types. Cholesterol depletion further triggers an inability for ciliary signalling. Because of a reduction of the transition zone component Pi(4,5)P2 we propose that cholesterol governs crucial steps of cilium extension. Taken together, we report that cholesterol abrogation provokes cilia defects.”

      2. Beth Kydd

        Hi Andy, Matthew Wood American Herbalist, herbal Elecampane second to none for activation of the cilia….
        See the American Guild of Herbalists for many wise writings on Covid 19 from herbalists at the sharp end of treatment.

      1. Madge Hirsch

        There is a study done on US veterans in the 2017 -18 flu season that concluded that those who had had a flu jab were 36% more likely to be infected by the corona viruses that affect humans. A French website AIMSIB that you may be familiar with ( a gang of heretic docs who are very scathing about statins) has come up with some interesting info out of Wuhan showing that those who did worse with COVID19 had lower LDL cholesterol.

      1. binra

        Never panic. Educate yourself in ways that make real incremental steps. Consider the things you do that may undermine or overload your immune function and those that will strengthen you.
        The body has amazing regenerative powers, but I believe there is a psychic-emotional component as well and not just as affecting microbiome but there is that.
        The decision consciously accepted and engaged, to align in health, may be the context from which all else follows.
        Everyone is ‘likely’ to either already be hosting coronovirus or meet it – just as you host and meet a wide range of bacterial and viral conditions or communications.
        Watch out for stories that bend the truth and your liability to believe them.

  4. Göran Sjöberg

    There is to me a logic that massive IV vitamin C may have an important effect since it will strengthen the epithelium of the cells in the lung, a collagen action.

    1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

      Indeed, I think strengthening the endothelial barrier function will be important in helping to prevent fluid build up in the alveolae. This seems to be what is killing people, and vitamin C appears to have significant activity here.

      1. Eric

        Isn’t there a danger, if taken preemptively, that it shuts down ROS signalling, hence allowing more glucose metabolism?

      2. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

        In medicine nothing is black and white. Those who wish to avoid Vitamin C are free to do so. In my view, on the balance of probabilities (and clinical evidence) Vitamin C will protect you against COVID-19. That, therefore, is my advice. One can always be proven wrong.

      3. TessaNaomi

        In CVD discussions many have advised that PDE5 inhibitors are likely to do no harm for the endothelial barrier. Anybody know of contrary research for COVID?

      4. Arie Brand

        Some people might not be familiar with this New Zealand 60 minutes report on the dairy farmer dying from swine flu and saved by vitamin C – about which the hospital authorities had to be fought (they are still trying to explain it away).

  5. grahamrhenry

    Thank you for this valuable information. Given the Italian evidence regarding the enhanced risk posed by ACE Inhibitors, does your earlier advice regarding potassium intake still stand, and could this potentially offset the risk if a doctor is unwilling to change medication.

    Your earlier comments and recommendations regarding Vitamin C and D were also very compelling, thank you for this.

  6. Helen

    Thank you for this information, I’m at 68 year old woman and have been taking 100 mg Losartin for 2 years. My doctor was keen to reduce it as my bp previously high is now stable. I don’t know whether to continue or to ask for an alternative. What would you suggest as an alternative?

  7. David Winter

    I am still taking an AC inhibitor along with Ramapril. I have for about twenty years when my blood pressure was high. I changed lifestyle and lost some wight and my BP has been 125\85 for years but the GP suggested I continue as was in my late years. What could replace ACE inhibitors ?. Thank you for your great help. Really appreciate.

    1. SteveR

      Dig back in DrM’s blogs and find discussions about BP, my understanding is that providing you have no eye or kidney problems then 125/85 is flipping marvellous. You are not a neonate and your GP shouldn’t be trying to drug you system back to a neonates B.P.
      You might also up your D3 and magnesium to keep your BP in check if that low score bothers you.

      1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

        The date of the ESC position statement is the 13th of March. The figures from Italy showing that 52% of those who died from COVID-19 were taking ACE-inhibitors or ARBs came out on the 21st. I think that the theoretical arguments have been overtaken, somewhat, by the facts.

      2. Arie Brand

        Some Italians at the frontline don’t seem to agree with you Malcolm. From the Italian paper “La Repubblica” (via Google translate)

        . I have added some articles that seem to support Professor Rossi’s position.

        Coronavirus, cardiologists: “Don’t stop taking life-saving drugs”
        The University of Padua and Professor Rossi deny the latest fake news: In actual fact “Ace inhibitors, in addition to saving lives, protect the lung”


        March 25, 2020
        ogists: “Don’t stop taking life-saving drugs”

        ROME – The University of Padua wants to dismantle the latest viral news claiming that patients suffering from Covid-19 should stop taking Ace-inhibitors and Arbs, the so-called life-saving drugs, very common in cardiovascular diseases, in therapies for Alzheimer’s and in favor with stroke veterans. Furthermore, stopping taking lifesavers would be counterproductive to ongoing therapy and to fight the coronavirus itself.

        The issue is put on a scientific basis by the University of Padua, which has entrusted the necessary clarifications to Professor Gian Paolo Rossi, director of the Arterial Hypertension Clinic and coordinator of the International PhD Program in Arterial Hypertension and Vascular Biology. Professor Rossi says: “Some self-styled researchers, on the basis of an evidently hasty and superficial reading of scientific studies, have spread fake news according to which Ace-inhibitors and Arb are harmful in patients infected with Covid19. In reality it is not so The news, albeit without scientific basis, quickly spread through the web, so much so that patients and doctors immediately asked themselves, and ask us, if these drugs should be discontinued “.

        The answer is no. But why did the question arise? From the beginning of the spread of the epidemic, on 20 January 2020, it was understood that Covid19 using the same pick of the Sars virus, which killed 774 in 2002, enters the cells of our body. The pick is a protein in its envelope, the Spike or “S”, through which the coronavirus binds to Ace-2, an enzyme present in the alveolar cells of the lung.

        Ace-1 and Ace-2 are completely different: Ace-1 is the target of Ace inhibitors. It is here that confusion arose and false information developed. Ace-1, in fact, is responsible for a large part of the deleterious effects of the virus in the lung, effects that are blocked by the Arbs. Ace-2 is not stopped by Ace inhibitors and, on the contrary, counteracts the harmful effects also on the motor of respiration. In other words, even if it is used by the virus to enter the cell, it plays a protective role in the lung.
        In summary, despite having a similar name and distinguishing itself only by a number, Ace-1 and Ace-2 have opposite roles in the lung and other organs, the first harmful and the second protective.

        “Based on the available evidence – explains Professor Rossi – not only is it useless to suspend Ace-inhibitors or Arb, since they are life-saving drugs, but, on the contrary, it is counterproductive in Covid19-positive or at risk of infection patients. The suspension would expose the their lungs to the harmful actions of excess Ace-1, no longer counterbalanced by Ace-2.

        A study of over 21,000 patients has shown that ACE inhibitors are superior to other anti-hypertensives in the prevention of pneumonia in the categories of patients at risk. “In such a serious emergency situation,” concludes Rossi, “false news, anecdotal data and impromptu results can generate serious collateral damage”.

        Other reading:

      3. james

        Dr. Kendrick: myself, I take losartan and bisoprolol, and thus am greatly concerned. But on the other hand, some scientists are saying and currently doing studies that show losartan might actually be useful in blocking Covid-19. Their arguments are similar to the Italian doctors cited here. Could the stats you cide be moreso due to that elderly people typically have just weaker immune systems, and coincidentally many of them also take these meds?
        My doc says not to change the meds yet, as this issue has not been settled. That said, I also recently read in a science blog about a medical doctor in Kansas who came down with Covid-19 and, aware of this same issue, said he changed his own meds from an ARB to a calcium channel blocker and said that his symptoms (like cough and fever) began to quickly subside within the next 24 hours.
        So, it makes me wonder…Any advice?

      4. JDPatten

        At least two randomized controlled trials are now underway to answer these concerns about losartan and COVID-19
        The results will be in for all of us to ponder about WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN, one way or the other, by April first, Two thousand twenty ONE.
        Patience, patients.

  8. Natasa

    With regard to “Far more men are dying than women”, I have noticed in my family that some viruses only affect the female members of my family, some affect the male members, others affect the whole family.

    1. Bob Niland

      In the case of Italy, it is speculated that the gender difference may be due to a similar disparity in smoking habits. Perhaps there is case data that might shed some light on that.

      1. chris c

        Good point! I was actually pondering whether smoking might kill the virus (if it did they’d never admit it). Seemingly not. I was thinking about how so many Chinese smoke like chimneys.

  9. Beth Kydd

    Hi, please look at Stephen Harrod Buhner’s website, technical herbal protocol gives clear guidance on what to take and why scientifically.
    Also Andrew Saul on FB, doctoryourself website and orthomolecular medicine re Vitamin C including intravenous protocol which I realise Dr K you are aware of, used successfully in China and Singapore.
    Plus Matthew Wood herbalist FB and webpage gives strong guidance on easily accessible herbs to use now, linking to TCM protocol used by Chinese medics as this affects the Lung and Large Intestine meridians (as mentioned sites of high numbers of ACE2). LI5 and LU9 are absolutely key acupuncture points to use on your wrists so accessible for all.
    Keep your guts internally warm and moving folks!
    Best wishes all

    1. Sasha

      I don’t think people should recommend generic Chinese formulas to treat anything. A patient needs to be seen by a trained TCM herbalist. TCM herbology is quite complex. Its level of differential diagnosis is beyond anything in Western medicine or even Western herbalism. Recommending generic formulas to treat X condition can have unintended consequences.

      1. Beth Kydd

        Hello Sasha
        Neither I nor the sites that I suggest you have a read of, are doing anything generic. I have given them here as pointers for anyone who wishes to investigate and come to their own educated conclusion. Dr Kendrick always points us to do our own thinking and research,while giving us a good solid base from which to start, something I value highly. The Chinese doctors referred to, and their research reports are easily accessible via Andrew Saul, give clear guidance on what they found, experienced and did under very challenging circumstances. Some herbs were used but their starting point, as the logistics of getting hold of the herbs/patent formulas even in China were challenging, was simple acupuncture of 2 points on the wrist where the Large Intestine 5 and Lung 9 channels meet. The results in terms of patient experience were immediate with a draining of the solid mucous on the lungs via the large intestine and a dramatic lifting of mood as patients could breath better immediately. I suggest anyone teaches themselves where these 2 points are on the wrist and live in awarenss in case of need and self treatment via finger pressure. Relatives can do this too. None of us know how desparate this situation may become and self knowledge and awareness of what to do can be critical. I hope this gives some clarity to my earlier words.

    1. Harry de Boer

      I’ve read that too, find it a statistically interesting concept and will try to find some melatonin in a pharmacy today.

  10. Beth Kydd

    Hi, agree vit C, see Andrew Saul. My lay understanding here is vit c would be excellent as it works at the epithelial and endothelial interface creating an environment not conducive to viral life. Also check pH levels and use Bicarb of Soda to amend as viruses are sensitive to pH. Dr Sircus writes clearly on this.
    However Dr Marick’s protocol also added in cortisone (?) steroid (?) for anti-inflammatory purposes in sepsis. I’ve read the steroid would not be helpful here at the cellular level in the lungs, but vit C is brilliant, probably due to the massive congestion present.
    Hope this helps a little

  11. Shaun Clark

    Just a quickie. I had a SAR’s ‘flu’ issue back in 2002. It was shocking. I lay on the sofa for 2/3 weeks with a cytokine storm raging through my joints. It fucking hurt. It was 18 years ago. I’m 68 and I still talk about it. My accountant also had it (I think I got it from him). He very nearly died as it hit him badly in the heart. His heart went wild and his weight literally fell of off him. He was eventually airlifted from Cyprus back to the UK (his post tax return holiday in January 2002). When I next saw him I refused to believe it was him. To this day he is still on mega drugs to stabilize him. Up until that time I never really understood how folk could die from such an illness (I have always been pretty fit, and thought, well, most folk walking are OK). If folk are suffering today with this (new) crazy Wuhan Bat Flu variant they have my greatest sympathy. SAR’s was a utter sod.

    1. LA_Bob

      Shaun Clark,

      As much as I think we have hysteria about this, I’m sure I would have a different perspective were I to get sick — especially very sick — and recover.

  12. Joan

    Now I am really worried. I’ve been taking Ramapril 10 mgs daily for the last 7 years. I have no chance of discussing this with my GP, she is understandably overwhelmed at the moment.

    1. Barovsky

      I’ve been on 5mg of Ramipril for 8 yrs. The last time I checked my BP (not at the hospital, white coat syndrome) it was 70/130. I’m 74 with (now) 5 stents in two arteries but otherwise okay (if I discount my underactive thyroid). Same question; should I stop taking the Ramipril?

  13. Carole

    I’m confused about ACE inhibitors and potassium.
    Dr. Malcolm, unless I’ve misunderstood are you saying ACE inhibitors can cause low potassium levels, and Covid-19 causes low potassium so it might be advisable to take a potassium supplement if you’re on an ACE inhibitor? From a quick internet search I’m seeing that ACE inhibitors (Ramipril is the one I’m interested in) may INCREASE potassium levels.
    Can someone please tell me where I’m going wrong? This current situation is slowly driving me insane 😦

      1. Carole

        Thank you, I’m still confused though as to why take potassium supplements. Sorry, I must be missing something obvious.

      2. Shaun Clark

        It would be nice. Give me a list of the really, really good stuff (…yeah, yeah, I know), and a list of the bad stuff. Malcolm, you could do it! And, I’ll come to your funeral. In a coffin.

    1. Gary Ogden

      Carole: Both ACE inhibitors and ARB’s cause retention of potassium, so taking a potassium supplement might not be a good idea. Both my doctor and Dr. Kendrick agreed on this point. One reason I weaned from Lisinopril is so that I could begin taking a potassium supplement. But I only did so after weighing a great deal of evidence, and my doctor did not oppose this.

    2. BobM

      I’ve seen that too (that ACE inhibitors can increase potassium levels), but have been on lisinopril for 7 years and have never had high potassium. I have been low carb/keto since 1/1/14, though, which tends to mean I have to eat a lot of salt (as salt is basically no longer held onto by the body). I have also taken extra potassium and not taken it. I have not had potassium issues regardless.

  14. andy

    Thanks for the update, looking forward to the next one already. “Medical damage” keep ringing in my ears.

    1. Gary Ogden

      Mr Brian Fullerton: Yes, as much as 20g, sixty times today’s adult dose. There was no Pure Food and Drug Act then, so it was the wild west. Also, our Army was quite small prior to our entry in the war, so millions of draftees had to be mustered in a very short time, housed in crowded, flimsy barracks at Camp Funston in what is now Ft. Riley Kansas, given a set of experimental vaccines, them shipped in crowded rail cars to East Coast ports onto crowded ships to Europe. A sizable proportion were too ill upon arrival to serve, and were shipped back. As the situation unfolded, many family members of the returning soldiers were given the same experimental vaccines (here, and in Europe as well). Among those autopsied, most of them had the cause of death listed as pneumonia. So we don’t know what role influenza played in this disaster. Certainly the conditions under which our soldiers were mustered and shipped out, as well as the battlefield conditions in the war were fertile ground for an epidemic. Is it possible a virulent strain of influenza circulated that year? Yes, but we’ll never know. The electron microscope was not invented until the late ’20’s, so at that time nobody had seen any visual evidence of what viruses were. It was all supposition.

  15. 103agency

    Chaps. This is from the GP whose blog I subscribe to. He tells it like it is. Only listen to your own GP obviously but if you know anyone on ACE inhibitors to combat hypertension (high blood pressure) definitely worth a read.


    Sent from my iPhone


  16. Deb

    Dr K. Thank you once again for your sensible and well researched advice. Do you have a view on how long would it take to reverse the ACE2 effects following discontinuation of ARB/ACEI’s?

    1. Anna M

      I second the question. I have said if I get symptoms I will quite the captopril, but now I am wondering if that will be too late.

  17. Dr. Nicholas Stanley-Cary

    Hi Malcolm, I am an Australian GP ( (trained at Barts. Qualified 1974)presently in day 5 of my Covid 19 + ve infection, courtesy of a recent European ski holiday which included a week in Italy but the timing fits better with Verbier in Switzerland. Aged70 and fit with no medical problems and on no medications, this has been a mild flu illness for me. My question is why these common BP medications could make Covid worse? Is it because the body makes more of the ARB receptors in the lung when these drugs are taken as a way to counter their blockade? Therefore these patients will have more receptors for the virus to latch onto and are at much higher risk of serious lung involvement? In which case, how long will it take to reverse these changes when the drug is stopped? As alternatives , B blockers would seem the obvious choice but certainly NOT with any history of obstructive airways disease. I personally don’t like Calcium channel blockers much as my patients often complain about the peripheral oedema and would hate to have them on this class if they were to develop lung oedema. I have used the golden oldie “Aldomet” or Alpha Methyl Dopa with great success in some patients in whom everything else seemed not to work or caused s/effects. I would value your thoughts on what you would think of as a substitute for the ACE inhibitors andARBs. It certainly does explain why treated hypertension seems to be an added risk factor for this particular virus.Thank you for a great blog. You are always highly informative, balanced and very well researched and cross referenced. You have changed my clinical decision making for the benefit of patients.

    1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

      Thanks for your support. I am not certain what is going on, for sure. This virus does seem to go for the lungs – at least the lung problems are what is killing people – above all. If the virus is entering the lung epithelium via ACE2 receptors and getting into epithelial cells through this route, then killing them, this may be why there is so much fluid leakage into the alveolae due to breakdown of the epithelial barrier function, a kind of super-accelerated altitude sickness. If ACE2 receptors are upregulated by angiotensin I blockade, or receptor blockage, this may create more lung damage due to greater viral uptake into these cells. This, of course, is purely speculative. They hypokalaemia seen with COVID-19, further points to a problem with degradation of cells expressing ACE receptors. This may, of course, turn out to be speculative bunk. What matters, in the end, is whether or not more people on these drugs are dying, which does seem to to be the case.

    2. Jerome Savage

      Dr Nicholas
      Might you have been one of the, up to 50%, false positives ?
      “In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the ‘asymptomatic infected individuals’ reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives”

      1. Dr. Nicholas Stanley-Cary

        Hi Jerome, No, I am sure I have the pesky virus. Have been skiing in Austria, Italy and Switzerland for the last 4 weeks. Returned to Australia on Wednesday last week and became symptomatic the next day with a hacking cough and stuffy nose. I never get sick! Thought I had acquired a mountain cold but went for a test anyway. I have since found out that x6 of my apres ski friends in Verbier have tested +ve as well, so the timing suggests that I caught it in Switzerland . Luckily for me, this has been a mild flu illness… honestly nothing to fear. The great news is that soon I will be “bulletproof “ and hopefully useful as an immune doctor and as a serum donor. I think this virus will be a huge wake-up call for all of us to lead a healthy life style… maintain close to ideal body weight, be a non smoker and exercise regularly. As a full time GP I will definitely be advising my hypertensive patients to get off their ACE inhibitors and ARBs and switch them to alternative medications until this virus runs its course.

      2. Bob

        There’s contradictory information out there on immunity after having it, and some simply say “we don’t know”.

      3. Jerome Savage

        Thanks for the response. As a fit 59 yr old on ACE and taking a med for AIS, am concerned about boosting my immune system.

  18. Shaun Clark

    Peeps. Some folk are getting by ‘cos they are on some cracking ‘good’ stuff. Anyway, lets wind it up eh? Let’s give it a go. So, grab a big (…bigger?) Cognac/Armagnac/Oban Whisky, sit back, and look up at the moon whilst listening to some brilliant Nina Simone. Then, tell the grand-kids ya love ’em, give ’em a kiss, and have a deep, deep think. Penny for your thoughts? Been here, done that eh? Been here… too long? Spin the bottle.

    1. AhNotepad

      I know some people think they will live longer if they consume alcohol, but I find it’s fine without.

      1. Shaun Clark

        Ha, ha! Me thinks you have missed the point entirely my man. It’s how Big Pharma got you. You are smoked by your ego.

      2. AhNotepad

        What are “love-in folks”? You have made what looks like a remark which appears to negate the initial apology, though the form of words does not have any clear meaning. All of us have only a small picture of what other people on this blog are like. Then we form an opinion. It could well be the wrong opinion.

      3. AhNotepad

        I suppose it would help if I knew what point you were making. It seems like talking in riddles to me. I do plain English (most of the time) I’m too simple for anything else.

      1. Frederica Huxley

        I was searching through my books for my copy the other day! I seem to recall the human nature hasn’t changed in the past six centuries.

      2. mmec7

        Ah yes. The Decameron – the Burton translation ? Can thoroughly recommend ‘A Rage to Live’ by Mary S Lovell; a biography of Richard and Isabel Burton, the Victorian explorer, ‘among the most eminent of Victorians. Soldier, spy, diplomat, linguist (was fluent in 29 languages), scholar and translator of erotic fiction’ – for this last much excoriated ! – and his wife, Isabel Arundell, “the scion of England’s most distinguished Catholic family”. “Mary Lovell has written a compelling joint biography that sets Isabel in her proper place as Burton’s equal in daring and endurance, a fascinating figure in her own right”.
        Great research, enthralling, erudite, beautifully written – backtracked on many paragraphs to retaste superb writing skills; language, phrasing, sentence construction and grammar. A total delight.
        A good big read – pp 910.
        Thoroughly recommend as just the book to dig into during these trying times.

      3. Gary Ogden

        mmec7: Thanks. Sounds like a great read. I’m working on my large P.G. Wodehouse collection. Puts everyone in their proper place, except Jeeves, who appears to be the only one with a brain.

      1. Shaun Clark

        Highland Park? Yes, I’m with you on that! If I do have a tipple though mine’s Cognac. I prefer the grape to the grain. I mentioned Oban as I lived there for many years, and so its kinda sentimental. It’s also my kids favourite for the very same reason.

  19. Jeff Cable

    Thank you for this information Malcolm. This is a very helpful public service announcement. Like many other folk over 70, I take medications for ACE inhibition along with beta & calcium channel blocking meds. My current co-morbidities include Hx of CABG 4 years ago, Mild Type II diabetes and essential hypertension. Of course I still work in the NHS full time (T&O) and I suspect my hospital is less likely to throw up random Covid-19 cases than my local supermarket. I will continue to work because living at home would drive me demented in a short space of time. I really appreciate your sense of community care. You are an exemplar for the medical profession. Stay well.

  20. Ivan Lowe

    Some are asking what alternative hypertension medicines exist. When I recently had to negotiate this with my GP I found the following recent summaries helpful:
    2/ “Treatment of hypertension in patients with asthma” NEJM review article 2019. by Christiansen SC and Zuraw BL
    I chose, and was prescribed, amlodipine, a calcium channel blocker, which has the added desired side effect of inducing mild bronchodilation.

  21. Frederica Huxley

    Given that it is known that calcium channel blockers induce mild bronchodilation, it would be interesting to know what effects each of the different hypertensive drugs has on COVID. Could it be that untreated hypertension itself has an effect on the body’s ability to recover?

    1. Sue Madden

      Italy like the UK has had years of de-funding of public health and closure of beds and hospitals also reduction of qualified staff – promotion of private care etc However, currently the situation in the NHS is worse than the average state of the Italian system – for the same reasons of course!! what is driving the italians mad is seeing other countries (especially the UK (a real outlier with its “herd immunity” let them all die approach, and the US who didn`t even bother to cover their approach with science!) behave as if what is happening in Italy won`t happen there!!!! Also why are other countries not seeing the danger and going into lock down immediately AND cranking up the provision of facitlites and vital materials. Why haven`t they been using the weeks of warning provided first by China and then by Italy. This approach of waiting beyond when the first cases declare themselves until the virus is disseminated throught the whole population and begins its exponential rise before putting in serious measures to slow propagation. This virus is especially difficult as perhaps 80% of cases go undocumented. We know there is a high proportion of asymtomatic spreaders also, yet the UK was partying until the day before yesterday.
      Thanks as usual to Dr Kendrick, I was hoping he would start to post on this…..
      There is a big worry about NSAIDS (links to the suggestion re aspirin and the 1918 flu) , and also a suggestion that Italians reach for Ibuprofen when they get a fever. I have`nt noticed any clear difference between this aspect of medical culture in the Europwean countries I know quite well. I do know that Italians use paracetamol less than the Brits, so this might indicate a higher tendency to use NSAIDS instead.

      1. KidPsych

        More on Italy: In Italy, there are several reasons why CFR might be higher: the age structure of the Italian population (2nd oldest population in the world); highest rates of antibiotic resistance deaths in Europe which might contribute to increased pneumonia deaths (Italy tops the EU for antibiotic-resistance deaths with nearly 1/3rd of the deaths in the EU). Smoking also seems to be a factor associated with poor survival – in Italy, 24% smoke, 28% men. In the UK, for instance, 15% are current smokers.

        Useful, factual link:

      2. Jerome Savage

        Some commentators have referred to the high levels of air pollution in Lombardy where 68% of Italian C19 deaths occurred.(Wuhan and Tehran mentioned in same breath)
        I ask if the supposedly high levels of cigarette smoking in Spain might be considered in the Spanish fatalities.

      3. chris c

        Yes the air pollution link looks plausible. Smoking too,I didn’t know what it was like in Spain.

        Some regions of China have high to toxic levels of selenium, other areas are selenium deficient, but I don’t think Wuhan is either.

  22. mmec7

    Superb summation. Thank you Dr Kendrick. And thanks to the adherents, for some great comments, useful links,and information.

  23. Gary Ogden

    Thank you very much for this, Dr. Kendrick. This is indeed a very strong signal, best paid attention to. Makes me doubly glad I weaned from Lisinopril. Not certain how much longer taking these RAAS-affecting drugs will allow us to be alive, walk around and smell the flowers and fresh air. We’ve had a series of storms lately in this severe drought year, so the air, except what has blown here from China, is very fine indeed. On the West coast we do get some pollution from China, but that, too is reduced, with the shutdown of industry there. A silver lining in every cloud. Wish the best for the Chinese, the Italians, the Iranians, and everyone else. But I think the politicians have made a massive error in over-reacting. My pork supplier (who has nothing to sell since the USDA pulled inspectors from small processors to the big boys) says the third-fourth quarters will see an economic contraction of 25%, adding that in the Great Depression the economy contracted 15%.

    1. chris c

      Yes here in the UK the economy is comprehensively trashed. Millions out of work, thousands of businesses closed down, many will be permanently gone. Or maybe Big Business will be buying them up for pennies.

      Supposedly the government is giving out benefits but not many people seem to be succeeding in obtaining them. And who will pay for them?

      Country by country the New World Order is coming.

  24. JD

    Would be great to have a huge dataset to answer the question if taking ACE inhibitors should better be stopped. Here is a small study by Chinese doctors [Clinical characteristics and outcomes of 112 cardiovascular disease patients infected by 2019-nCoV, who found:
    “Higher BMI are more often seen in critical patients and non-survivor. ACEI/ARB use does not affect the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 combined with CVD.”
    but it is beyond my knowledge (and my Chinese) to judge if this is significant.

  25. Dr. John H

    I wrote this a while ago, I hope it can help anyone looking for safe treatments that can dramatically lower BP without drugs.

    Hand-grip exercises can reduce your number by about 10 percent. Inexpensive hand grippers available online or at a local sporting goods store ($10 to $15) are effective. Squeeze and hold the gripper for 2 minutes at a time, for a total of 12 to 15 minutes, three times a week. How to video here (1).

    Malcolm Kendrick recommends to patients with high BP(2) “Increase potassium consumption, go on a high fat low carb diet. Use relaxation techniques: mindfulness, yoga, whatever floats your boat. Take exercise. Get out in the sun – this stimulates NO (nitrous oxide) synthesis. Try L-Arginine and L-Citrulline. Increase magnesium consumption. This will often, if not always, do the trick.” Note that a high fat low carb diet is very effective in reducing BP, and weight loss if needed. He also says(3): “I would further add that sun exposure is the best known way of increasing NO synthesis throughout the body. This protects the endothelium and, as you would expect, lowers blood pressure (the natural way). So, you are far less likely to die from CVD.”

    He also points out (4) “With regard to blood pressure, a study published in 1997 found that adding roughly 2 grams (2000 mg) of potassium per day lowered blood pressure in older people by 15/8 mm Hg. As good, if not better, than any antihypertensive drug. And with no side-effects at all.”

    Nitrous oxide synthesis makes the arteries flexible, which can lower BP. Beet root powder stimulates NO synthesis. Drinking 8 oz. of Pomegranate Juice (5) a day can lower your BP by 10% and clean the plaque out your arteries in the process! Beet Kvass is another delicious option.

    If your BP is always high, then the arteries may be clogged, in which case Linus Pauling Therapy (lots of vitamin C plus maybe a few other supplements) is highly effective. See “Reversing Heart Disease” (6). One thing to try is Cardio-C (7) (1-2 jars/month) to clean out plaque and heal up your arteries. Statins do not help, and have many dangerous side effects (8).

    L-Arginine and L-Citrulline promote NO synthesis and can dramatically lower BP. People like this formula (9) because it is flavored, and dissolves well in water, though it is very expensive. L-Arginine has the potential to stimulate chronic viruses (such as herpes), so may be contraindicated in some cases. You can also buy these 2 amino acids separately, and mix your own drink, which is much less expensive. The recommended ratio is 4 or 5 grams L-Arginine to 1 gram L-Citrulline mixed in water and take once or twice a day on an empty stomach.

    If the heart muscle itself is working too hard, Chinese herbs can work wonders to calm it down. Also, the formula Luo Bu Ma can reduce BP significantly.

    Salt is a necessary nutrient, and restricting it causes many problems. Salt restriction generally does not lower BP, or does so minimally. When BP does drop due to salt reduction, it doesn’t reduce mortality rates. See The Salt Fix book (10).

    Be sure to have a good quality BP measuring device so you can check your BP one or more times a day while trying these methods.

    The above methods can lower your BP very significantly, which means if you are taking BP lowering medications, it is important to work with a qualified doctor if you want to transition to these natural treatments. Stopping BP meds abruptly can be very dangerous.


    1. grahamrhenry

      I have to disagree with regard to the high fat low carbohydrate diet advice. There’s stacks of evidence based on classic studies that increasing our consumption of dietary fat increases our risk for cardiovascular disease as well as diabetes and certain cancers. Look at the research from Dr. Colin T Campbell, Dr. Caldwell Esselstyn, Dr. Dean Ornish, Dr. John MacDougall for example. The best diet is a low fat, high fibre wholefoods plant based diet which by definition is high carbohydrate, but not refined carbohydrate. Animal protein contains cholesterol and a high level of saturated fat and certainly isn’t heart friendly.

      1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

        Can you please point the readers to a single RCT demonstrating that dietary fat increases the risk of CVD and/or diabetes. Observational studies are hypothesis generating, but cannot prove causality. Also, your statement that animal protein contains cholesterol is wrong. Protein does not contain cholesterol, it is a completely different chemical. Neither does protein contain saturated fat. If you mean that meat contains cholesterol, and saturated fat, this would be scientifically accurate.

      2. grahamrhenry

        I meant cholesterol and fat is found in the tissue of meat. It was poorly expressed. I accept the evidence is based on observational studies but for me, actual evidence based on populations is compelling enough for me rather than having to go down the route of doing RCTs. I prefer to look at how people actually live and even though correlation isn’t the same as causation, it’s enough for me also based in my own experience transitioning to a plant based diet and losing a significant amount of weight, reducing my blood pressure, lowering my total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol.

      3. Gary Ogden

        grahamhenry: Read “Nutrition and Physical Degeneration,” by Weston A. Price, DDS. He was a practicing dentist, as well as the head of the American Dental Association research lab for twenty-five years. He travelled the world in the 1930’s examining ancestral diets, and comparing them to modern diets in an attempt to explain why the dental health of his patients was so much worse than that of their parents. To his dismay he found not a single population consuming a vegetarian diet, and the healthiest of all were those who consumed large amounts of animal foods.

      4. Jean Humphreys

        A low fat diet is the reason why I am obese: once it arrived, I never was able to remove it, even though I reverted to feeding sensibly.
        As for cholesterol – I MYSELF contain cholesterol, and I am very glad of all that it does to keep me alive.

      5. Dr. John H


        When I was a young man, 30+ years ago I was very smart, but not very wise. After reading John Robbins “Diet for a New America” and many others (like MacDougall) I was inspired to become vegan. At first, I felt better, because I got off wheat and processed foods and ate all organic. But, soon after my health started to degrade rapidly. I remained steadfast to the diet though, despite what my body was screaming at me. After 2 years I gave up.

        I wish at the time I had learned about the work of Weston Price. Plant based, and especially plant only diets are not sustainable for most people, and they often end up malnourished.

        One of the brilliant things about Weston Price is that he was able to obverse diets of exceptionally healthy groups of people that were maintained for many, many generations, which is something we cannot do today. Weston Price said that you need to look at at least 3 generations of people following a diet to know it’s value. Malcolm Kendrick uses modern science to prove what Weston Price observed: that fat and cholesterol are good for you! They are not your enemy. As far as fiber goes, some people do well with a lot of fiber, some don’t (it appears to be about 50/50). I’m glad you are interested in reading Malcolm’s blog, and wish you the best on your journey!

      6. chris c

        Been there done that. It didn’t work. Animal protein comes with fat, some of which is saturated. The actual reason for scaring people off meat is that it causes lust, and worse, masturbation, which is ungodly.

        Vegetable protein always comes with carbs. The EAT-Lancet diet (curiously sponsored by a raft of “food” manufacturers, drug companies, agrochemical producers and seed suppliers). contains 252g carbs, plus a bunch of dietary deficiencies. That’s about twelve times as many carbs as I can eat and twenty times what many people are limited to.

        Saturated fat is chemically stable, unlike industrially produced Omega 6 seed oils, and does no harm, provided you can metabolise it. Carbs/insulin are what stop you metabolising fat.

        Another thought, what would be the effects of the massive consumption of seed oils on the virus and the immune system? Not good I suspect. Any data from Israel or Bulgaria, which I believe have the highest ratio of O6 to O3? Even higher than the rest of the world.

    2. Dana

      Thank you for the referenced research. I would add that in Canada Dr Gifrord-Jones Medi-C plus with vit. C and lysine powder is similar to the Cardio-C product mentioned in Ref. 7.

  26. Raphael

    Dear Dr Kendrick

    What are they doing? What’s up doc? Is there going to be a cull of the expensive elderly on the NHS? In three months time all us over 70’s and others with critical illnesses will be released from confinement at home and will be let out all to be exposed to Covid-19 in a short period of time. A large percentage of this “cohort” will probably get an infection and as the statistics show will die as has happened in Italy. It looks as if we all have to get an infection at some point unless a vaccine is found.

    The Hospitals will not be able to cope with this sicker elderly group. Many will have the listed conditions that they have been confined for, so other complications will be huge as many will be sickly to start with.

    I do not thing I am being totally paranoid, but I am worried/nervous at what is happening. I know they are trying to prevent a sudden run on hospitals now. Boris Johnson keeps telling us to “Protect the NHS,” but what is going to happen when the isolation period comes to an end? Are they going to let us out in groups every month and slow the bump and not cross the critical line.

    I use to be a doctor in South Africa and was registered as a Family Physician, I later became the Group Medical Consultant for one of the top companies in the Country but had to retire early. At 56 I had to do something else with my life so studied Orthodox Christian Theology and was Ordained as a Priest. So my background is medical. So my mixed title is explained!

    I have followed your Cardiac and Cholesterol blog for a number of years. The Government has been conning us with dietary advice even though the evidence is against their recommendations. Is this another con?

    Your thoughts if you have time now you have expanded your queries into Virology!

    Best wishes Fr Dr Raphael Hawkes

    8 Dewartown Gorebridge Midlothian EH23 4NX

    Tel: 07500008653 01875 320090 ____________________________________

    On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 at 18:22, Dr. Malcolm Kendrick wrote:

    > Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: “22nd March 2020 I thought I should do a > quick update on COVID-19, as some interesting and important information has > been published in Italy. Looking at deaths in various age groups, > underlying conditions etc. It can be seen here https://www.epicentr” >

  27. elizabethhart

    Australia has gone into lockdown today with draconian rules. Gyms, cinemas, churches, indoor sporting venues, cafes and restaurants, pubs are all closed. Possibly for six months. This is a momentous decision which is going to have a devastating impact on the economy, society and health.

    To try and avoid one problem, they are going to create many, many more. Older people are going to be more isolated. Younger people may become resentful at the way society is being turned upside down. Huge stress in families. Livelihoods lost. Depression etc. The social fabric is being destroyed. It is incredible.

    The mainstream media pours forth with a constant stream of fear-mongering. The government is now our master instead of our servant. Freedom of speech is under threat, they’ve been progressively shutting this down over the years.

    I am very concerned about the way this is being handled and who is driving it.

    Again consider:
    In the coronavirus pandemic, we’re making decisions without reliable data

    1. Janet Love

      Elizabeth, always ask “Who profits?” – (and always take the long-range view)

      “Profit” is not restricted to mere money, so include “Power” which can be interchangeable, – and more desirable in the long run.
      So don’t exclude the reality of …. being taken for a ride.

    2. Sasha

      New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania are going into lockdown as of today as well. Possibly other US states, too. I haven’t looked it up

      1. Gary Ogden

        Sasha: California as well, on the 19th. As far as I am concerned, the governor can kiss my patootie. Raining here, anyway. A blessing!

      1. AhNotepad

        I remember the last UK foot & mouth fiasco, based on advice that was as flawed as this probably is. So they suggest that to suppress the virus, these lockdown conditions may go on for 18 months, er, until a vaccine becomes available? Really? I may be reading something into the report, but in line with many reports it has a waffly style that is based on opinion more than anything else as far as I can see.

  28. wcmozart

    Re the increased odds if you are taking ARB or ACE BP pills ..
    I get a higher factor of around 6, not 4. Here is my calculation .. perhaps there is an error in my method..
    take 100 elderly people ; 14% on BP ARB or ACE pills — so we get 14 on pills, 86 not on pills
    now : ~ 50%+ of all those who die are on pills, balance who die are not on pills
    so 50% pill death rate x 14 elderly on pills = 7 who die who are on pills; leaving the balance, or 7 others of the remaining 86, who die who are not on pills
    % of those dying as % of total NOT on ACE, ARBs = 7/86
    % of those dying as % of total TAKING ACE, ARBs = 7/14
    Ratio: 86 / 14 = 6 times more likely


    1. Martin Back

      I think the reasoning is that if 14% are on pills you would expect 14% of the deceased to be on pills, if the pills made no difference. However, 52% of the deceased are on pills, so they are 52/14 = ~4 times more fatal.

      Not mentioned by Dr. Kendrick but in the report he quoted from is the fact that 73.8% of the deceased had hypertension as a co-morbidity. So clearly it is in your interest to get your blood pressure down by some means or other, although preferably not by taking ACEs or ARBs.

  29. Adrian Molenaar

    Thanks Check out that 2011 paper on SARS and lacoferrin. Those in spring should be able to get do.e colostrum Best Adrian

    Get Outlook for Android


  30. Devs Gmail

    Thank you!

    I wanted to share an important voice message with you from a friend in Spain. Its scary! Think all the UK medical experts need to insist on lockdown and learn from mistakes of Spain. Can I share the voice message with you? 07970 161155 Devina Haime

    I was going to send to Sam Feltham of PHC public healrh collaboration as think he knows alot of medical experts

    Thanks, Devina

    1. Fleur Brown

      Ria there seems to be some confusion between ACE inhibitor intake and ARB (eg Losartan) intake. I need to dig deeper – what I read\heard was that ACE inhibitors could aggravate the virus but ARB’s could be protective and perhaps that is why a trial (s) is going on with regards to ARB’s and not ACE Inhibitors.
      Also the way ACE inhibitors affect the lungs – is this why so many people taking ACE Inhibitors get a cough as a side effect and the same does not happen with ARB’s like Losartan.
      Would you know Dr Kendrick ??

  31. gallusgail

    Dear Dr. Kendrick
    thank you for another very interesting post. I really appreciate all you do to enlighten the public. This must be a very busy time for you. Wishing you all the best.

  32. Anne Armstrong

    Thank you for picking up on this so quickly. In comments around 2 years ago you mentioned a preferred blood pressure medication . Thank you

  33. johndstone


    ce-inhibitor induced cough ad fermented dairy produce : A source of insight into pathogeneisis of COVID-19 in children and adults ? Re: Covid-19: a puzzle with many missing pieces Re: Covid-19: a puzzle with many missing pieces Pauline Vetter, Isabella Eckerle, Laurent Kaiser. 368:doi 10.1136/bmj.m627 Dear Editor,

    Ace-inhibitor induced cough and fermented dairy produce : source of insights into pathogenesis of COVID 19 in children and adults?

    Why are children spared from corona while the elderly die? The answer to this may unlock a strategy to protect the elderly. The reported incidence of ace inhibitor induced cough in adults is 5-35%1. The incidence of cough with angiotensin receptor blockers was found to be lower at ( 29%) than was found to be lower than that for lisinopril (72%) in the losartan cough study group2. The incidence of cough in children receiving ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers is very low at 3.2% and 1.8% respectively3. It is recognised that Covid 19 uses the ACE2 receptor pathway to enter the lung4. Does a common pathway for ACE inhibitor induced cough and COVID 19 disease explain the differential incidence of cough in children and adults with ace inhibiting drugs and the differential morbidity in children and adults with covid -19 lung disease?

    Early clinical investigations of Covid 19 cases indicate hypertension as a co- morbidity with the highest association with hospitalisation and death.5 The European6 and American 7 Colleges of Cardiology recommend continuation of ACE inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockerss for patients already prescribed these medications while awaiting further studies. It would be helpful to examine the incidence of ACE inhibitor induced cough as a risk factor for severe COVID-19 disease.

    The role of fermented dairy products needs to examined in this pandemic. In 1991 Japanese scientists created the first milk based ACE inhibitor using specific cultures to liberate lactotripeptides. In 1996 the first human study confirmed the blood pressure lowering effect of fermented milk.8 Since this discovery there have been more than 20 human trials in humans confirming the blood pressure lowering effects of these drugs.9 The ACE pathway is used by fermented mild to achieve its effects. Could the consumption of large quantities of fermented milk products e.g parmesan cheese be one of reasons for increased mortality in Northern Italy? Given that hypertension is a strong independent risk factor for severe disease with covid 19 healthcare workers with hypertension should be assigned to ‘non- covid 19 ‘ clinical practice in the coming weeks . This includes hospital workers and also general practitioners who have a higher mean age than other sectors of the health service. The middle aged hypertensive in the general population should also be advised that they are at a greater risk and should be encouraged to engaged in enhanced self isolation or cocooning techniques similar to elderly population.

    1. Angiotensin concerting e=enzyme inhibitor induced cough : ACCP evidence based practice guidelines Dicpinigaitis Chest Jan 2006 2. ACE inhibitors angiotensin 11 antagonists and cough : The losartan cough study group Ramsay J Hum Hypertension 1995 3. Cough in paediatric patients receiving angiotensin concerting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker therapy in RCTS Baker Smith et al Clin Pharmacol Ther 2010 4. Hoffmann M et al SARS COV 2 Cell Entry Cell 2020 March 4 5. Are patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus at increased risk of COVID-19 infection ? Fang et al Lancet March 11 2020 6. Position Statement of the ESC Council on Hypertension on ACE inhibitors and angiotensin Receptor blockers 13 March 2020 7. Statement from the American Heart Association , the Heart failure association of America and the American College of Cardiology March 17 2020 8. Hata et al A placebo controlled study of the effect of sour mild on blood pressure in hypertensive subjecys. The American Journal of Clinical nutrition. 1996 64 (5) : 767-71 9. Lactotripeptides and antihypertensive effects: a critical review Boelsma et al The British Journal of Nutrition 2009

    Competing interests: No competing interests

    22 March 2020 Muireann N Ni Chroinin Paediatric respiratory Consultant Cork University Hospital

    Sent from my iPad


      1. barovsky

        Apparently, children up to the age of 10 or 11, don’t have fully developed lungs, so lack the chemical that the virus latches onto. I can find the ref if you like

  34. Nick Obolensky

    Thanks a second very useful blog on the subject.

    Please keep going with it!



    On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 at 18:21, Dr. Malcolm Kendrick wrote:

    > Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: “22nd March 2020 I thought I should do a > quick update on COVID-19, as some interesting and important information has > been published in Italy. Looking at deaths in various age groups, > underlying conditions etc. It can be seen here https://www.epicentr” >

  35. Muhammad Daniel

    Hello, I’m on Ramipril as I had a heart attack last September. I’m speaking to my GP in an hour about switching to something else, but I’m almost certain he won’t know or be interested in evidence here and will advise official line until it changes. Any advice on how to approach this would be appreciated. I understand individual medical advice cannot be given, but I’m struggling to find an alternative drug I could request him to prescribe…

    1. Muhammad Daniel

      Further to this, just had the conversation. His main point was that while there may be alternatives to lower blood pressure, the Ramipril is to support my heart following the attack. He said there is no other drug that can do that apart from ACE inhibitors. I believe I have also read positive things here about their effect in that regard. So I basically now have to choose to either keep taking them and supporting my heart, but potentially risk being more susceptible to COVID. Or stop taking them and… be more likely to have another attack? Not an easy one. I suspect many others are in the same boat, however.

      1. Gary Ogden

        Muhammad Daniel: The downsides of ACE inhibitors are pretty minimal. These (and possibly ARB’s, though I know little about them) are the least problematic of the BP drugs. I took one for more than twenty years, but weaned from it after research convinced me I was probably as well or better off without it. No CVD, though, that I know of. I am curious as to his reasoning that it will protect your heart.

      2. Muhammad Daniel

        Gary Ogden: Agree downsides of ACE inhibitors are minimal in general, but as I understand it, the issue here is they may be increasing the body’s production of ACE receptors, which act as conduits for COVID to get into the lungs. GP said Ramipril support left ventricle.

      1. Muhammad Daniel

        Indeed. He is open to alternatives, but doesn’t think there are any that will support the heart in the way Ramipril does. Apart from ARBs…

  36. Margaret O'Rathaille

    Thank you.
    I’ve also seen a comment about coagulation issues being a risk factor in Covid 19. I presume this would include people taking anti-coagulants? Which I do, for A. Fib. (as well as a diuretic and beta blocker for BP.)
    Would you have any comments on this?

  37. Håkan

    Then we should expect the US to be hit harder than others by Covid-19 since they are keen to go on meds, right?

  38. Håkan

    How can we understand if there is a causality or just a correlation between Covid-19 and ACE-I/ARB? Can hypertension be seen as the confounding factor for both the disease and the prescription?

  39. David Bailey


    I suspect that your advice to change the type of BP medication in use may be impractical.

    For example, in our area the local surgery is closed, and as I understand it, if you want an appointment, you are put through to some sort of triage nurse. Unless/until the advice about ACE inhibitors changes, I expect that is as far as you can get.

    Furthermore, I imagine that changing the type of BP medicine may require several visits to the GP to readjust the dosage, side effects, etc.

    Give that, people taking ACE inhibitors probably have a stark choice of either accepting the extra risk, or reducing/stopping their medication and monitoring their blood pressure. I wonder how far it would be reasonable to let the BP rise – as high as the age+100 guideline that used to apply – or what?

    1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

      I cannot advise people simply to stop antihypertensives. Also, GPs are available for telephone consultations and most people on treatment have devices to take their own BP. It is not the simplest undertaking, but if these drugs do increase the risk of death – what else can be advised?

  40. Harry de Boer

    I love it when an independent expert speaks out his mind while using calculations on the back of a cigar box.

    1. Steven Root

      Malcolm was very clear that he was only stating a hypothesis based on an observation. The observation itself – that 52% of a group of 3200 persons who have died from Covid 19 in Italy were taking ACE Inhibiters and ARBs before presenting – is extremely alarming. Correlation is not causation, but that is one very disturbing correlation. It begs the question of to what degree this 52% exceeds the percentage of the general population that is at risk, and Malcolm offered some speculative thoughts labeled as such.

      1. mmec7

        Malcolm was very clear that he was only stating a hypothesis based on an observation. The observation itself – that 52% of a group of 3200 persons who have died from Covid 19 in Italy were taking ACE Inhibitors and ARBs before presenting – is extremely alarming

        Indeed yes. Civilised discussions. ‘Backs of a cigar box’ are not part of any discussion – might have been a shirt cuff… Open and civilised discussion. Evidence is being accumulated, sifted, an attempt to arrive at solutions. Correct solutions take time.

  41. Helen Paterson

    Trials are about to start of an ACE2 drug as a treatment for COVID-19. ACE 2 soaks up the virus, prevents it from attaching to receptors, and reduces infection. That’s an over-simplistic explanation but it does beg the question of whether ACE inhibitors are indeed implicated in the high death rate in Italy. ACE2 is found on the X chromosome, females (XX), have two, which may have something to do with the lower death and infection rates for women. Makes it all very difficult to decide whether to stick with Ramipril or not.

    1. Ria Lloyd

      Yes. It’s all very confusing. On the onevhand we are told losartan makes it worse but on the other hand it’s trialled as a possible ‘cure’

      1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

        It is complicated. It could turn out that losartan is a miracle cure. If so, I wish these researchers well, and I will instantly change my advice and apologise for having given guidance that proved to be wrong – and potentially damaging.

      2. Fleur Brown

        Helen as far as I am aware, the trials are about ARB’s eg Losartan not ACE Inhibitors like Ramipril. There seems to be confusion about these two families of drugs perhaps ?

  42. Dr. John H

    Here is the first 1/2 of my blood pressure article to give an idea of what healthy blood pressure really is:
    Current blood pressure guidelines define high blood pressure as above 130/80. In the old days, the cutoff for high blood pressure which warranted treatment was your age + 100/90. Then, they changed it to 160/90, then to 140/90. Now prehypertension is defined as 120/80! Researchers (1) that define these numbers are paid huge amounts of money by the drug companies to manipulate the numbers to be artificially low, to get as many healthy people as possible on blood pressure lowering drugs, which of course results in billions and billions of dollars in drug company profits.

    To gain a more accurate look at what the threshold numbers really are, this fascinating study (2) re-evaluates the Framingham Study data that blood pressure guidelines are based on. Their formula is very similar to the older guidelines of your age + 100/90.

    The study gives these rules of thumb for the treatment threshold for a person of a given age and sex, up to age 74:

    Threshold for men=120+(2/3)(age)

    Threshold for women= 114+(5/6)(age)

    The study data goes from the ages of 45 – 74. The next 2 studies also go up to the age of 74.

    In a prior study (3) the same authors say “While our model shows that there would be no benefit in reducing pressure from 160 mmHg to 140 mmHg it does show there could be substantial benefit in reductions from 180 to 160 mmHg.”

    Another study (4) points out that “Only when SBP [Systolic Blood Pressure] exceeds the 185 mark does the number of deaths start to increase steeply.” They go on to say: “It would also be useful if patients are told that… 0.39% of people over 85 die each year due to their HBP (including hypertensive heart disease) according to the USA CDC. This means that the great majority of older people die from something else even though they have HBP. In addition, the negative side effects (ranging from sexual dysfunctions to depression and increased suicide rates) of HTN [hypertension treatment with drugs] must be made clear.” This study (5) finds that people hospitalized with acute heart failure with the highest SBP (>161) had the lowest mortality, while those with the lowest SBP (<120) had the highest mortality.

    For the ages of 75+ this amazing Italian study (6) shows that the lowest mortality is associated with a SBP of 165, and DBP (Diastolic Blood Pressure) of 85. in patients with impaired physical and mental functioning, a higher SBP near 180 was associated with lower mortality. They conclude that those with physical and mental impairment benefit from higher BP, as a higher BP can more effectively push nutrients into the cells where needed.

    Interestingly, this study (7) concludes “Blood pressure values below 140/90 mmHg during antihypertensive treatment may be associated with an increased risk of mortality in octogenarians [people over 80 years old] or elderly patients with previous cardiovascular events.” Having naturally lower BP is very different than lowering it with drugs. Using drugs to lower BP can actually increase the risk of death along with many unpleasant side effects.

    This study (8) says the "risk of stroke went up 33 percent with each blood pressure medicine” and "three or more blood pressure medications had a stroke risk of 2.5 times higher”. That’s a 250% increase! They go on to say: "You're in as much trouble by the time you are on three medications that achieve excellent control as you are when you have hypertension and it is untreated, which is amazing," Howard said. "We want to raise the issue that, despite great advances in a pharmaceutical approach, relying solely on this approach is going to come at a dear price of people's lives.” This study (9) finds that ACE inhibitors are linked to increased lung cancer risk. In addition, Beta-Blockers (10) commonly used in the treatment of high BP killed 800,000 people over a 5 year period in Europe.

    The ALLHAT study found that lisinopril and amlodipine were no more effective than water pills in preventing deaths, and lisinopril is linked to a 60 percent higher frequency of strokes. Amlodipine is linked to 38 percent more heart attacks and increased rates of suicide and depression. Dr. Paul Whelton, head of the ALLHAT study team and senior vice president for health sciences at Tulane University said "The study proved clear-cut advantages for diuretics. All the newer, patented drugs had worse outcomes for heart attacks or strokes" (See the Seattle Times article (1)).

    Cardiovascular researcher Dr. Malcolm Kendrick (11) says that a SBP above 160 warrants treatment.

    An elevated BP, even when below the treatment threshold is a symptom of something else, and it is that “something” that you want to work on. Regardless of your numbers, maintaining arteries that are strong, flexible, and free of plaque is desirable. Common causes of high BP are stress, clogged arteries, stiff arteries and being overweight. Fortunately, there are many safe treatments that can dramatically lower BP without drugs.


    1. Mr Chris

      Thanks Dr John, I have read several serious analyses like that, but one tends to forget so this is a timely reminder. I take L Citrulline hoping to keep my arteries in shape with a corresponding benefit for my blood pressure. I am over 80, I recently had a second replacement hip operation: when I came out of the theatre to the re animation place, the boss man announced to all the room this is Mr X he is over 80 and takes no medicine on a regular basis, so I suppose I am doing something right

    2. David Bailey

      Many thanks for that review, because it will help if I decide to reduce or stop my lisinopril treatment in the present situation. I know Malcolm is reluctant to reply directly to medical queries.

      Just to clarify one point – those numbers apply when calmly seated for say five minutes before taking a reading. I always find the second reading (removing the cuff and waiting a few minutes) is lower than the first, and I use that second reading.

      I would see myself making gradual reductions, and maybe stopping treatment altogether if I can stay within those guidelines.

      Have you decided to get your patients off ACE inhibitors, I wonder?

  43. Soul

    Was reading that in the state of New York patients with the corona virus from China are to begin receiving the malaria drug treatment tomorrow. I’m hoping it goes well. I imagine by the end of the week we will know how well that treatment works.

    Saw another article about a fellow that tried the malaria drugs and had success.

    “Florida man with coronavirus says drug touted by Trump saved his life”

    1. mmec7

      Not all roses on that front – this has just come through to me …
      Nigeria records chloroquine poisoning after Trump endorses it for coronavirus treatment
      By Stephanie Busari and Bukola Adebayo, CNN

      Updated 2102 GMT (0502 HKT) March 23, 2020
      Lagos, Nigeria (CNN)Health officials in Nigeria have issued a warning over chloroquine after they said three people in the country overdosed on the drug, in the wake of President Trump’s comments about using it to treat coronavirus.

      A Lagos state official told CNN that three people were hospitalized in the city after taking the drug. Officials later issued a statement cautioning against using chloroquine for Covid-19 treatment.
      US President Donald Trump claimed at a White House briefing last week that the Food and Drug Administration had approved the “very powerful” drug chloroquine to treat coronavirus.
      “It’s shown very encouraging — very, very encouraging early results. And we’re going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately. And that’s where the FDA has been so great. They — they’ve gone through the approval process; it’s been approved. And they did it — they took it down from many, many months to immediate. So we’re going to be able to make that drug available by prescription or states,” Trump said.
      He added: “Normally the FDA would take a long time to approve something like that, and it’s — it was approved very, very quickly and it’s now approved, by prescription.”
      However, the FDA after the briefing issued a statement saying it had not approved the drug for use against Covid-19 and is still studying its effectiveness against the disease.
      Price hikes
      Trump’s endorsement of the drug led to a surge of interest among Nigerians keen to stock up on the medication, which has led to inevitable price hikes in the megacity of around 20 million inhabitants.
      One man told CNN that in a pharmacy near his home on the Lagos mainland, he witnessed the price rise by more than 400% in a matter of minutes.
      Kayode Fabunmi, a Lagos-based lawyer, said: “The pharmacist knew the market and was saying to every incoming customer, ‘You know Donald Trump has said this thing cures coronavirus,’ and the price kept changing.
      “The original price was 200 naira (around 50 cents), then it became 500 naira ($1.38) then it became 1,000 naira ($2.77) while I was there,” he said.
      The Lagos State Health Ministry issued a brief statement saying there was no “hard evidence that chloroquine is effective in prevention or management of coronavirus infection.”
      Chloroquine is used to treat malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.
      Malaria is an endemic disease in Nigeria and other parts of Africa and for many years, it was common to treat it with chloroquine. However, at least 40 African countries, including Nigeria, have phased it out as a frontline antimalarial drug and replaced it with other drugs following widespread resistance to it.
      Lack of clinical evidence
      While doctors in China, the United States and other countries have used the drug experimentally in Covid-19 patients, there is not yet enough clinical evidence that it’s effective in humans or the management of the disease.
      Dr. Michel Yao, Africa emergency response program manager for the World Health Organization, told CNN there are 20 drugs and the same number of vaccines under clinical trial, and it is too early to make recommendations about the efficacy of any for the treatment of the virus.
      “The WHO’s position is clear. Any medication should be based on evidence. We don’t have yet any evidence from any of these trials that would allow WHO to do a formal recommendation. All these are in progress, so it is difficult for us to recommend at this stage that any of the medicine can be of use for the treatment of coronavirus,” Yao said.
      “It is too early to rush to the decision that chloroquine … at least for WHO to recommend it for the treatment of coronavirus,” he added.
      Begs more than a question or two – wonder how many have lined their pockets meantime, as the peoples of an African nation are used as guinea pigs…pharma making hay, bet trump is quietly trumpeting, as for th hangers on. Sick at heart. The purity of medicine plunging in to an even deeper abyss. One feels a desperation of futility with the establishment.

      1. Soul

        That is sad about the passing of the Nigerians from the malaria drugs. Hate to hear that. There is a report out today too about a husband the wife that took pills used to clean fish tanks thinking it was the same as the malaria medicine. The two pills sounded very similar but are very different. The husband passed away from poisoning after taking the fish tank cleaner, while the wife remains alive but sickly the article mentioned. Obviously best to follow medical advice on what to take and dosage required.

        I did see some other hopeful news reportedly by a physician out of New York treating hasidic Jewish people with the Chinese corona virus. I hope what he says is true. His video can be seen here. Fears seem to be calming in America some, but still many remain fearful. Positive news with treatments will be helpful with all the anxiety and stress people are feeling.

        Talking about fear, the neighborhood my parents live in, they live in Florida, are upset over the New Yorkers that are visiting. They are looking to kick out of the neighborhood some that are visiting the area out of fear of the disease. (New York is under a lock down quarantine according to their governor) It’s also being done out of fear of legal liability. Unusual times we live in.

      2. mmec7

        Indeed Yes, Goran. What about. Excellent advice in the article., which I had seen and shared. Tried to share on f/b but, the ‘scrutineers’ sent it back to me as ‘false’ information, and ‘dangerous’…!! Can’t invent it. Did try again, and now have three rejections by the Oh so scientific…HaHa … f/b mob as to be ridiculous. One gives up. Sigh. Back to my vitamins and especially Vit-C, Magnesium, Zinc – and all the rest. Gee, am a’rattlin !

      3. andy

        mmec/soul: re chloroquine for COVID-19
        Bad news is that someone died from overconsumption of a good medicine.

        What chloroquine does is increase Ph of the host cell thus preventing endocytosis of the virus docked on the cells ACE2 receptor. The virus then cannot enter the cell and replicate. Apparently the drug works if used appropriately. No need to stop BP medication.

      4. Stuart

        And as a result of that idiot Trump shooting his mouth off there’s been a run on pharmacies in the USA and chloroquine is now in short supply. (I’d assume this is a prescription medication so why are doctors prescribing it to well people?) If CQ does turn out to assist in treating Covid19 it should be reserved for the seriously ill not sitting in a drawer of the Worried Well. Does Trump engage his brain before opening his mouth or reach for his phone? Does he even HAVE a brain? Sheesh!!!

  44. Jeff Cable

    Medicine change discussed with my GP during an urgently requested phone consultation. GP understood the rationale and said that the current advice is to leave patients on ACE/ARB meds. GP stated there was no clear evidence for or against the proposition that ACE inhibition gave Covid-19 improved access to the human body. GP did not object when I requested a change from ACE meds and a doubling of my calcium channel blocker, Amlodipine. Job done.

    I note that some correspondents are wondering how to suggest a change in medication to their GP and they may find the following paragraphs helpful. FWIW , I had a telephone/video consultation with a private GP service because my own GP practice has had increasing difficulties with staffing since one partner retired early last year. The private service GP offered to write me a script and get me to monitor my own BP for a week then give me a further consultation to advise me based upon my recorded BP data. As my own GP has agreed to a change in my medication, that is now not necessary. It is possibly one avenue worth following if you have a lot of difficulty making GP appointments or are in an occupation that leaves you with very little time to visit your GP. Stay safe to all.

    1. mmec7

      Has been mentioned Pete -the Chinese tend to be heavy smokers, and has been commented on that many are/were smokers, men more than women. In addition I saw a note yesterday relating to Vaping. No surprise, any smoking is going to attack the lungs.

  45. DaleInNC

    There are other theories that say people are actually better off taking an ACEI or ARB. As someone who takes a pretty high-dose ARB, I have been researching this a bit online and found that this helped my understanding of how it all might work. Confusing times.

    1. mmec7

      Superb video. Excellent presentation. Thanks for putting it up – will share onwards.
      I don’t take any anti-hypertensive meds myself, tried 16 of them, far too many unwanted side effects. Gave up. This in spite of a ‘usual’ BP 160/90 with spikes to 195- 207/90-107. Worst yet was 217/107. (I do have my own upper arm cuff). So, drugs being out, I take L’Arginine. Seems to do the trick. More to the point is, *Why – *Cause. That, I am keen to know; but no one over here is at all interested, they only want to prescribe their fave drug ! Was never good at ball games…….. 🙂

      1. Mr Chris

        I too used to take L Arginine but found its effect limited. Read up on L Citrulline, more easily absorbed and thus more effective.

  46. John Hudson

    I read in several papers that 63% of corona virus victims are overweight, obese, or morbidly obese. Though, to some extent, this replicates the rates of these problems in the population at large.

  47. Jerome Savage

    Shaun Came off a bicycle on a cycle lane a few miles north of Oban couple of years ago. Came round the corner and the road engineers had placed a bollard right in centre – in their infinate wisdom. Shoe cover to keep the rain off ( yes of course it was raining- but not hard enough to clear the damned midges) caught in the pedal. Down i came on the bollard bruised but not beaten. Well ok I took a lift back to Oban, in a camper van driven by a nice retired English couple. Drug companies make mistakes – so do engineers. Maybe cycle lane design is still in its infancy. Never got to fort William or Nevis.
    I digress !

    1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

      It is well balanced. He calls the ACE2receptor an enzyme. But that does not change the rest of the information which is accurate. However the potentially beneficial benefits of ACE inhibitors and ARBs are only theoretical and may not exist. Or may be harmful rather than beneficial. The Italian evidence is currently the best we have. It points to potential harm rather than benefit.

      1. Fleur Brown

        Why is it that the patients with hypertension are the highest in no of patient deaths in Italy?

      2. Anna M

        Fleur Brown

        I can only assume that it is because of the meds such people tend to be on. That hypertension itself would raise the severity rate very much just seems counterintuitive to me. Half of people have hypertension by middle age, and may be otherwise quite healthy and fit.

  48. Mike Wroe

    I am told that NHS staff at the Princess of Wales hospital have been given this advice.

    Prevention. The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 27 degrees C. Therefore hot drinks should be consumed abundantly during the day. These hot liquids kill the virus and are easy to ingest. Avoid drinking ice water or drinks with ice cubes. Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet. When the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth it will get flushed through the oesophagus into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea from there to the lungs.

    Their advice is much more comprehensive than this. Much of which is already recommended.

    1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

      This is complete and utter non-scientific nonsense. I have only approved this comment in order to dismiss this advice out of hand. For starters the average temperature of a human is 37oC. At this temperature the virus lives completely happily and reproduces itself. The idea that you can flush the virus down into the stomach is also completely ridiculous…. Enough. I assume that this comment has been put in good faith, but I can only advise everyone to completely ignore it.

      1. AhNotepad

        If that advice was given by the NHS to it’s staff, maybe it indicates even NHS advice should be treated with caution.

      2. andy

        Malcolm, I read your comment too late. Agree that 27 C is not a hot drink. Purpose of inflammation is to raise body temperature by inducing fever to kill the virus. The sauna idea might still have benefits.

      3. Beth Kydd

        Please can I make a teeny weeny comment here? Please do delete as no wish to upset anyone.
        The info coming out of China is that the virus causes something that has rarely if ever been seen in TCM, that is a condition of cold damp, this settles on the lungs with serious effects of solid mucous – hence the dry cough as the cillia are drowning in fluid and not able to shift the gooey mass (tricky description, sorry). Think of being in a damp cold field in November and how you quickly become chilled to the bone and your lungs fill with cold damp air?
        A key approach to this is to ‘warm the interior’ and keep fluids moving. Warm bone broths with lots of vegetables and plenty of ginger and garlic, a dash of chilli. Less carbs, their too heavy on the digestion. You get the idea? You are wanting to keep warmed through, not by sitting in front of the fire but internally. Herbal teas, avoiding dairy as it can enhance mucous production. Keep the digestion flowing, peeing and pooing and sweating! Yes of course exercise too in fresh air if you can. An essential oil atomiser will help too keeping the environment fresh and clear. And this helps explain a dry sauna is helpful but not a steam room, that brings more damp into an already swamped body. Vitamin C of course!
        I make what I call ‘Glow Tea’ – in a steel flask to brew for a couple of hours, all the kitchen spices. A pinch of fenugreek seed, mustard seed, a bay leaf, a few leaves of fresh or dry thyme, a coriander seed, pinch of chilly, a bit of cinnamon, a peppercorn, a teaspoon of honey. Add hot water then the juice of half a lime or lemon including the pulp. Play around with the mix to suit. Others to add are marjoram, star anise, basil leaf, coriander. Let the herbs and spices warm and dry you through.
        Thank you Dr K for your wisdom and patience with us all on this steep learning curve.

    2. andy

      Mike Wroe: re virus dies ar 27 c
      This is useful information. A daily hot sauna with breathing exercises will be implemented starting today. I have a sauna in the house, need some activity during isolation.

      1. Beth Kydd

        Dry sauna only….
        Don’t you just love spell checker? Their there deer! Grrr.
        To comment on my own post, how could I forget a slice of root ginger, turmeric and liquorice in the Glow Tea.
        Pine needle I hesitate to add is useful too but please make sure it’s not Yew, poisonous

    1. andy

      Håkan: re low cholesterol, this could be important
      Also it would be meaningful to know if patients were also treated for hypercholesterolemia. Need to know two variables to arrive at a conclusion.

  49. Eric

    Medical culture – prescriptions?

    Re diverging fatality rates, it is notable that Austria, Germany and Norway (and to a lesser degree the other Scandinavian coutries) stand out with very low rates.

    Much has been written about different testing rates, and that may well be part of the differences. It is also true that deceased are not mandatorily tested post-mortem in Germany, but I just read an interview with a medical statitician who says that everyone is on alert and she doesn’t see a large number of pneumonia related deaths slipping by unnoticed.

    Yes, it may be true that Germany is still early in the curve, but this is defintely not true for Austria, and neither is it true for North-Rhine-Westfalia, which had a very early and huge outbreak due to an infected couple attending the raucious carnival celebrations there, and even there, the death rates seem low compared to neigbouring countries.

    So is there a chance prescription habits in German-speaking countries are different, due to “local” medical culture? I have noted that medical cultures can differ significantly. For example, a very common nose decongestant (runny nose relief) containing Xylometazolin is impossible to obtain in France.

    I think we can rule out eating habits. Where carbs and seed oils are concerned, Germany is way worse than the mediterranean countries that are so hard hit right now. Also, Vitamin D levels are bound to be lower than there.

    1. Jerome Savage

      Eric – is it possible that cause of death in Germany & certain Scandinavian countries is recorded with reference to the pre existing & underlying condition or simply a pulmonary disease rather than the Virus itself ?

      1. Eric

        No, to the contrary. They record corona virus deaths and report underlying disease for information.
        There was some discussion among epdiomolgists, coroners, medical statisticians. The consensus seems to be that a few deaths might have slipped by initially, but that for the past two weeks every doctor would habe been alerted to CV.

      2. Geoff Arden

        sadly it would seem not from this video

        It is a 3 minute video. The first death “of corona” in Schlesweig-Holstein is described as an elderly person with terminal cancer in a palliative care ward; so someone did a “corona test” 4 days before he died; so his death is recorded as a “corona death”. Thus does science advance.

  50. Fleur Brown

    I have read info from various researchers that ARB’s could well be protective against the virus but ACE inhibitors have the opposite effect and can have negative effects on the lungs (hence why a cough is a very common side effect of taking an ACE Inhibitor).. Anyone know more about this ???

    1. andy

      Hi Fleur: re ACE inhibitors and lungs
      Inhibiting/modulating inflammation is MEDSPEAK for a compromised immune system.
      “In addition, ACE has a role in both innate and adaptive responses by modulating macrophage and neutrophil function — effects that are magnified when these cells overexpress ACE. Macrophages that overexpress ACE are more effective against tumours and infections. Neutrophils that overexpress ACE have an increased production of superoxide, which increases their ability to kill bacteria. These effects are due to increased ACE activity but are independent of angiotensin II.”
      In healthy individuals, billions of cells die by apoptosis each day. Clearance of these apoptotic cells, termed “efferocytosis,” must be efficient to prevent secondary necrosis and the release of proinflammatory cell contents that disrupt tissue homeostasis and potentially foster autoimmunity. During inflammation, most apoptotic cells are cleared by macrophages; the efferocytic process actively induces a macrophage phenotype that favors tissue repair and suppression of inflammation. Several chronic lung diseases, particularly airways diseases such as chronic obstructive lung disease, asthma, and cystic fibrosis, are characterized by an increased lung burden of uningested apoptotic cells. Alveolar macrophages from individuals with these chronic airways diseases have decreased efferocytosis relative to alveolar macrophages from healthy subjects. These two findings have led to the hypothesis that impaired apoptotic cell clearance may contribute causally to sustained lung inflammation and that therapies to enhance efferocytosis might be beneficial. “

      1. Fleur Brown

        Thank you Andy for the info on ACE Inhibitors – my question was more about ARB’s having a protective effect on the lungs as opposed to a negative effect.

  51. andy

    Maybe another piece of the puzzle: air pollution, COPD, zinc
    COPD + COVID19 = pneumonia
    My multivitamin has 11mg zinc
    Zinc and Zinc Transporters in Macrophages and Their Roles in Efferocytosis in COPD
    In healthy individuals, billions of cells die by apoptosis each day. Clearance of these apoptotic cells, termed “efferocytosis,” must be efficient to prevent secondary necrosis and the release of proinflammatory cell contents that disrupt tissue homeostasis and potentially foster autoimmunity. During inflammation, most apoptotic cells are cleared by macrophages; the efferocytic process actively induces a macrophage phenotype that favors tissue repair and suppression of inflammation. Several chronic lung diseases, particularly airways diseases such as chronic obstructive lung disease, asthma, and cystic fibrosis, are characterized by an increased lung burden of uningested apoptotic cells. Alveolar macrophages from individuals with these chronic airways diseases have decreased efferocytosis relative to alveolar macrophages from healthy subjects. These two findings have led to the hypothesis that impaired apoptotic cell clearance may contribute causally to sustained lung inflammation and that therapies to enhance efferocytosis might be beneficial. “

  52. briansteere

    Sober and sane information ‘from a Swiss doctor’ – but with sourced references:

    This has some overlap – of course – with data that Malcolm is sharing but has a good list of some of what is NOT being said, under a globally orchestrated ‘media frenzy that is ‘doctoring the data’. But also signifies the power to enforce penalty on non compliance and mobilises mass opinion to police it.

    1. David Bailey

      Thanks, I found that very informative.

      “The younger test-positive deceased almost always had severe pre-existing conditions. For example, a 21-year-old Spanish soccer coach had died test-positive, making international headlines. However, the doctors diagnosed an unrecognized leukemia, whose typical complications include severe pneumonia.”

      I’d encourage everyone here to read that.

      I am sure this is an extreme case, but even so!

      1. KidPsych

        And David, even the notion of not having a pre-existing condition might be rather vague. I recall an Ivor Cummins piece in which he discussed the Kraft test and how a random population would show many more cases of underlying T2 diabetes or pre-diabetes (which he interpreted as just having diabetes).

      2. LA_Bob

        That’s a very interesting blog. Thanks for posting it.

        From a March 28 entry:

        “British media reported on a 21 year old woman who died of Covid19 „without any previous illnesses“. However, it has since become known that the woman did not even test positive for Covid19 and died for another reason, possibly even suicide. The Covid19 rumor had arisen „because she had a slight cough“.”

        The “become known” links to an article in The Guardian which has been taken down “for review”.

        Here’s another article referencing the since-removed Guardian article. Pretty clear we currently don’t know what to think about this situation.

  53. angiewhitelondon

    Thank you Malcolm.
    I have had the conversation with my GP and am switching to a Diuretic as Candestartan has not consistently kept my BP in check over the last 3 years. She was hesitant to change in the middle of this pandemic but was more reassured that I referred to this research and your analysis of the figures. She said she had seen you speak once and thought that you were brilliant. So hopefully these will work and I’ll see more of my ankles in the near future!

    1. Fleur Brown

      A moot point as ARB’s such as Candesartan may in fact be protective and therefore should be continued not stopped….

  54. David Bailey


    You have mentioned the idea of QUALY units to describe the value of various medical interventions. I wonder if anyone has applied this concept to the people dying of COVID-19 so as to tell us an estimate of how many years of life are being lost to this virus, and/or to estimate the number of QUALY’s that are being lost.

    I think this would be far more instructive than the raw death rate, even though I am usually suspicious of cooked statistics.

    1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

      QALY = Quality Adjusted Life Year. Clearly, if the average ago of those dying is, as in Italy 78.5 and the average life expectancy is 82.54, then each deaths reduces life expectancy by three years. As of today, there have been 6077 deaths from COVID. So the loss of QALYs is 18,231. However, almost everyone who died had significant co-morbidity. CVD, COPD etc. So, their quality of life will have been less than 1. Let us say, on average, 0.7. So the loss of QALYs is 0.7 x 18,231 = 12,761. To be frank, I have no idea what to do with that figure.

      It would be more interesting to know by how much the total death rate is being affected. Italy has a population of 60.5 million, the death rate is 10.5 per 1,000 per year. So 635,250 die each year. That is 1,740 per day – on average. Whilst more people are dying of COVID, are less people dying of other things? I don’t know, but the total number of deaths is the figure that really matters. Because, in an ‘epidemic’ there will be a tendency to state that everyone with COVID symptoms dies of COVID. Maybe they just died ‘with’ COVID. What killed them was what was going to kill them anyway.

      1. David Bailey

        Thanks Malcolm, That is what I was getting at.
        “if the average ago of those dying is, as in Italy 78.5 and the average life expectancy is 82.54, then each deaths reduces life expectancy by three years.”
        This is just a niggle, but surely on average, a person who has made it to 78.5 has a life expectancy that is longer than that, I think.

        I guess 6077 deaths out of 635,250 wouldn’t really show up at all That is why I was trying to think of a reasonable way to quantify the real damage caused by this virus.

        I suppose the number 12,761 could be compared to some other epidemics, such as Bird Flu or Swine Flu.

      2. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

        With regard to you little niggle. I was (roughly) accounting for the fact that those dying have multiple morbidities – so their life expectancy would be reduced vs. a healthy 78.5 year old.

      3. johnplatinumgoss

        As you say “the total number of deaths is the figure that really matters.” Yet in every mainstream presentation of comparison of COVID-19 deaths and worldwide annual flu deaths I have seen the figures are given as a percentage of those infected – which is a lot more scary. We really don’t know until the epidemic has run its course what the total numbers will be.

      4. Anna M

        I must be wrong but it seems to me that the math calculation above is wrong. If you go from a life expectancy of 4 years down to .7 years, how do you get two thirds of the original life expectancy?
        Should it have been 0.7 x 6077?

      5. Kevin Frechette

        I think that by defining human existance by a QUALY metric or any metric is a step in the direction of Eugenics. Humans are more than a quart of milk that has an expiry date on it. It is unfortunate that sometimes milk spoils before it’s time and has to be chucked but we want to keep it around as long as possible. We are fortunate that our society can have elders and we are not limited to a breeding population and immatures like mosquito’s.

        I think also that if you are after metrics, you need to look at demographics. Presently a 90 year old in Canada represents 2% of the population and for thier cohort, who’s average life expectancy was 58 years, they have done very well by living 32 years beyond average for their cohort.

        What is demographically interesting, is that the 70-90+ group of Wartime and Depression Babies represents less than 10% of the population, the next group of Baby Boomers in the 55-69 group is 20% of the populations and will swamp existing medical care very soon.

      6. Martin Back

        QALY could be useful in comparing alternatives. For instance for a cancer patient, do nothing and die in six months; or radiation and chemo and feeling miserable but live for two years, and put your family through two years of trauma?

        Of course, this only works if you can accurately assess the outcomes of your decisions. If you were an administrator in charge of COVID-19 policy your choices are basically lockdown and hurt the economy so people die of starvation but minimise deaths from COVID; or carry on regardless and keep the economy humming while many die of COVID.

        The problem is, there are too many unknowns to make a rational decision. So politicians will do whatever they feel will cost them the fewest votes in the next election. As good a system as any other in the present circumstances, IMO.

    2. Charlie

      Eventually everyone will be exposed to the virus. All isolation measures are only to reduce the number of critically ill at a rate that health authorities can deal with them. For those with a healthy immune system there will be no trouble.

      There are many natural ways to reduce the risk of serious illness. A few have being mention vitamin C, Cinnamon, zinc etc. But there is one that is one the best antimicrobial that have been proved to kill other corona virus oil of oregano. It is sold in capsules or can be diluted in a carrier oil.

      Antiviral Properties of Oil of Wild Oregano

      “Perhaps the most dominating study was done by Ijaz and Ingram on human coronavirus and also influenza A. In this study the viruses were allowed to infect cell culture. At a growth of some 5.5 million viruses per milliliter in the case of the coronavirus the oregano oil in a 1% dilution was found to destroy 99.9% of the viruses.

      A multiple spice oil concentrate or extract destroyed 100% of the germs such that none were detectable. This amount to the deaths of hundreds of millions of viruses, all in a short 20 minutes. Incredibly, by 5 minutes there was a greater than 98% destruction of all pathogens. Nothing known in this world could operate so powerfully. The multiple spice oil complex was even more potent, dropping numbers by the 5 minute point to 99%, that is less than 1% survival. “

      1. Gary Ogden

        Charlie: I have a very big wild oregano in my garden, of which we eat freely. Perhaps this partly explains our good health.

      2. Anna M

        Very interesting. Oil of oregano is cheap and I use it as part of my protocol to hopefully kill cancer stem cells.

      3. Charlie

        Yes Anna Carvacrol the main ingredient in oil of oregano is also a proven cancer killer for many types of cancer and yes vitamin c in high dosages is an oxidant, that is how it works. If people are going to take high dosages of vitamin C is best to take 500Mg at various times of the day.

      4. BobM

        Any in vivo studies?

        Also, if everyone will get covid-19, why did China stop around 80,000 cases? (Assuming the data from there is valid, that is.)

      5. Charlie

        Is how is used for cancer were the high dosages in plasma require IV that you can’t achieve orally were the absorption limit is around 500mg. There are studies of how it works.
        Pharmacologic doses of ascorbate act as a prooxidant and decrease growth of aggressive tumor xenografts in mice


        Ascorbic acid is an essential nutrient commonly regarded as an antioxidant. In this study, we showed that ascorbate at pharmacologic concentrations was a prooxidant, generating hydrogen-peroxide-dependent cytotoxicity toward a variety of cancer cells in vitro without adversely affecting normal cells. To test this action in vivo, normal oral tight control was bypassed by parenteral ascorbate administration. Real-time microdialysis sampling in mice bearing glioblastoma xenografts showed that a single pharmacologic dose of ascorbate produced sustained ascorbate radical and hydrogen peroxide formation selectively within interstitial fluids of tumors but not in blood. Moreover, a regimen of daily pharmacologic ascorbate treatment significantly decreased growth rates of ovarian (P < 0.005), pancreatic (P < 0.05), and glioblastoma (P < 0.001) tumors established in mice. Similar pharmacologic concentrations were readily achieved in humans given ascorbate intravenously. These data suggest that ascorbate as a prodrug may have benefits in cancers with poor prognosis and limited therapeutic options.

  55. Soul

    This is completely different from the main topic, but saw it and it made me chuckle. By happenstance I ran across a company my brother in law is CEO of. The firm puts holes into hearts.

    I had no idea my BL was involved with this. I don’t keep in touch with my sister and brother in law all that much due to my illness. As many learn with a chronic condition, or at least I have found out, most are friendly about the condition others are in, but have a fear of being around someone ill. I don’t blame people. Life is short and best to enjoy it is my thinking.

    Anyway, I don’t have any idea if this company’s idea is helpful or not. I hope it is. I hope it makes lots of money. It is right in line with what my BL does. He teaches at a University on how to start a business. And while not teaching, he starts businesses. He often has wealthy backers with his business projects.

    If anyone needs a hole in their heart I can arrange a meeting. The companies web sight is ~

  56. Tony

    Re Covid-19; It is becoming increasingly difficult to find verifiable facts and figures of this disease in the UK that can be trusted as the media hype continues to bombard us from all directions. However, the UKGov site is well worth a visit for some facts relating to UK infections & deaths:

    It appears that data presented is post code related, By checking the map page, and zooming in, it is possible to identify towns and areas’s that do not have any recorded Covid-19…a valuable exercise on the are where you live.

    I live in Skelmersdale, near Liverpool & Wigan, and according to this map we are Covid-19 free! This is very re-reassuring……..but as no one has actually been tested this information is still of limited use and I find this surprising in a town of some 39000 people.

    Anecdotally, many residents have, since late November /early December last year. experienced all the symptoms of Covid-19 on an ongoing basis, and like a ‘flu’ with constant breathing and chest symptoms, high temperature etc Local surgeries don’t have appointments for any such trivialities (after ‘re-organisation) and appointments could only be made 4/5 weeks ahead, so those have just carried on with life as usual.

    This ‘bug’ affected all age groups, but seemed more prevalent in my age group (post 65).

    After 5/7 days it cleared for a few days then come back as a slightly different infection in the respiratory tract. ; This pattern of recurrence has lasted for 3 months (& still going on) for some people in Skelmersdale.

    This has been my experience, , and whether seasonal or my vitamin protocol, it is slowly clearing up.

    But, what if it was Covid-19 back then in December?
    Authorities would not have tested (if they could) for it.
    Do I have Covid-19 anti-bodies?

    Only time will tell; I will be following the Covid-19 map with interest.

    1. AhNotepad

      Tony, I might be missing something with the map, but I could zoom in to see areas, which were as small as local authoroties in some cases, but only as small as counties in other cases. I see Skelmersdale as an examle, lumped in with Lancashire, where there were 71 confirmed cases as of 24th March.

    2. Lesley

      I’ve been a so-called lurker on this site for a couple of years or more as I’m very interested in Malcolms work, particularly as his excellent use of ‘plain English’ makes it easier for people like myself with no scientific background to understand. I also like the way he conveys his opinions , advices & critiques using a carefully measured tone even when commenting on the most controversial of issues. Above all I trust his opinions as I know they are backed up ‘evidenced based science’ or when this is weak or lacking his best interpretation of the available science e.g his recommendations on Vitamin C & Ibuprofen which is why I visited the site this evening to see if any update had been posted.

      Personally, I’m disappointed that the comments ( which I do habitually read without commenting myself) have become a conversation between a handful of people with the same / similar views surrounding the C virus crisis that many would disagree with and some would dismiss as wild ‘conspiracy theory’.Responses such as: “I am not sure it is a question of being “pat”: Bob; pray, who is being “pat”? I see as a needlessly sarcastic put down on what I read as a reasonable comment from Bob who clearly takes a more moderate view as I’m sure do many others and may Influence them against posting more moderate comments.

      I acknowledge everybody has a right to their personal views & opinions and to promote & discuss such opinions but as comments are now overwhelmingly dominated by just a few members, I’m entitled to question whether this site is the best place for that to happen? Which is clearly a decision for Dr Kendrick alone to make.

      1. AhNotepad

        Lesley, are the postings “dominated” by just a few? If the posters stopped posting, there would be less to read. Would that be a good or bad thing? If people want less domination by a few, they could post to dilute the “dominators”. Unfortunately this would mean more work for Malcolm in moderating. I think “conversations “between a handful of people” could be because one might write something, another will read it and reply. The first then realises the interpretation wasn’t as intended and adds a correction, which is then read by someone, possibly a new person, and so it goes on. I think that’s a feature of language. People often have a go at my posts, and when I re-read the post I think, “hell, I didn’t mean that”.

      2. Mr chris

        Comments have moved to a sort of churn, plus conspiracy theory.
        I note a certain irritation has set in, a consequence of confinement?
        However the conversation on modelling, links to alternative views is very enlightening.
        You have to take a few smooths with the roughs.

      3. Shaun Clark

        It’s a Blog, not the Times, and I feel it is very decent Blog at that. There is good cross-fertilization.

      4. JanB

        It’s an EXCELLENT blog. I’ve learned so much here. I’m eternally grateful to Dr. K and his many followers.

      5. mikeezeem

        Well said Lesley.
        This is beginning to sound more and more like Mercola’s site
        One contributor banged on about “fake news” and then told us that it was now illegal to disagree with the government about the coronavirus What BS is that?
        I’m waiting for someone to tell us that it is all a conspiracy by Hilary Clinton and the WHO to destroy/control the world
        You think right -wing loonies aren’t saying this ? Think again

      6. AhNotepad

        Ok, you think it’s BS. Let’s go back quite a few years for an example. Mr Bliar and his unelected adviser, made a claim about WMD in Iraq. David Kelly said something that did not agree with the official line. David Kelly was said to have “committed suicide”. Still think governments tell the truth?

  57. anglosvizzera

    Any thoughts about this?

    “Status of COVID-19
    As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

    “The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.”

  58. AhNotepad

    Can we have some views on this?

    I remember seeing films in the 1960s (the films themselves may have been older) where an ailing person had their head over a bowl of hot water with a towel over their head to keep the water vapour from escaping too easily.

    1. anglosvizzera

      It’s something I’ve always done and my mother used to do with us if we had any kind of ‘head cold’ etc. I’ve recommended it to my kids many times too, who find it very helpful. As viruses seem to “hate” heat, it makes sense to me. It’s inhaling the steam that seems to work but obviously be careful not to scald yourself. Others add eucalyptus or menthol oil as well, but we’re users of homeopathic medicine (…cue laughter…) which is likely antidoted by these strong-smelling oils.

    2. Anna M

      Sure, it is a good home remedy to clear out the sinuses and perhaps the lungs. One should add something good to breathe in, perhaps mint tea or something. Be very careful of drops though, as they might be very strong and burny.

    3. andy

      AhNotepad: Have used the steam therapy with addition of eucalyptus and it works, not sure if it is only the steam that loosens the sinus passages. Apparently there are quite a few plants with anti-fungal and antiviral properties. The plants evolved in competition with other life forms such as molds, bacteria and fungus. The medicinal properties can be transferred to someone who consumes these plants. Other plants that evolved in competition with insects and larger predators have properties that discourage consumption, avoid these plants.

  59. Ola

    I’m happy to report that (some) New York City hospitals are using IV vitamin C as part of their treatment protocol for COVID19. The protocol includes: azithromycin, vitamin C, zinc sulfate & hydroxychloroquine for patients who are not in critical care. Patients in critical care also get a shot at remdesivir.

    Sources: (<– Twitter account of a local doctor, great to follow for COVID19 updates.)

    1. anglosvizzera

      Yes, I saw that too. Are any UK hospitals trying it out, I wonder? My doctor nephew is flat out as clinical lead for COVID 19 in the Emergency Department at UCLH in London but I passed on the info via my sister to ask him (if he gets any time to spare…) Would seem a sensible option going by the reports from the Chinese and Korean hospitals.

    2. Anna M

      Very encouraging! But I am confused about the antibiotic, since this is a virus. Is the pneumonia perhaps a secondary infection that includes bacteria?

    3. Martin Back

      I’m not a big believer in vitamin supplements, but I thought maybe I should get a kg of vitamin C powder to get me through the next 100 days at 10 g per day.

      Checked online for local suppliers. Hah! Either “Sold out” or “Price under consideration”.

      It seems there are plenty of vitamin C fans out there.

      Incidentally, I spend about R4 a day on fresh fruit. That would buy me about 7 g of vit C powder, which I’m sure is far more vit C than in the fruit, but maybe vit C from fresh fruit is more potent? It seems to work. I seldom get the sniffles.

  60. elizabethhart

    To put the current global coronavirus crisis in context, check out this brilliant documentary, which has just premiered online in the past day. It is absolutely brilliant, a must see for anyone worried about where all this is going…
    We’re Living in 12 Monkeys:

    1. Tony

      Thanks for the link; I do believe that we are now being controlled/conditioned by the powers that be, for a virus that ‘enough is not known about’ but the ‘experts’ seem to know enough to control our behavior. I feel that I cannot even discuss how we handled past epidemics (by doing nothing or let it run it’s course) because anything I say or postulate about the current situation accuses me of being ‘irresponsible’, this is certainly true on social media. My own family, bless them are following this cult message…..hell, I’m 75, still here, been there, done that…but what do I know!

      1. KidPsych

        Tony, it is challenging being level headed as the world around you implodes. I’ve been encouraging people to be cautious but not fearful. Context and data are important. In China, a country of over a billion, with tragically poor air quality and excessive smoking and T2 Diabetes across their population, corona killed 3,000. That’s essentially a rounding error in yearly traffic deaths (over 100K). One could probably argue statistically that the reduction in driving during the quarantine likely leveled out mortality across that time. Italy too – 28% of Italian males smoke. Median age of deceased at about 80, which falls above life expectancy.

        If I were elderly and had an underlying condition, sure, I would be frightened and completely self-isolate. But otherwise, the fear factor related to corona seems most logically attuned to what happens in ERs. This fear makes sense and should be addressed, hopefully with rapid expansion of capacity to treat patients safely.

      2. mmec7

        Agree with you Tony – Have just watched the video, agree with where it is coming from, and have been saying a while now. Would love to put the video on f/b but reckon that would only invite a hysterical outburst from those who just cannot comprehend the undercurrents of the unfolding situation. Would be pointless sharing on any social media, however, have shared with family and ‘most’ of my close friends. Thank God I am in my 80s. Been there, done that – more concerned with what to do with all my possessions – who in hells name wants porcelain or silver, paintings or 3,000 odd books ? Sheesh, gotta laugh. Heigh-Ho. Have another drink – No, wait until Lent is over and I have had my 83rd birthday… Cheers 🙂

      3. JDPatten

        Yeah. Having been through a good helping of life and being formed by it – as well as forming it to a good extent – it’s rough turning so much of that on its head.
        I’m 75 as well . . . deafness from childhood measles, Kennedy, Viet Nam, Nixon, energy crisis, typhus, Lyme disease . . . etc, etc.
        I and, I’m sure, you, have been through a Hell of an extended learning period. And we still should have a good way to go with decent quality of life.
        So, consider this – just a bit of perspective:
        Do you feel your present danger is exaggerated?
        Assume that the cylinder of your revolver has a capacity of 33 rounds of ammunition instead of the usual six. Spin the cylinder, target yourself, pull the trigger.
        ‘Course not. It’s still “Russian Roulette”.
        Unconcernedly going into crowded public spaces on principle would be the same, presuming the COVID death rate IS actually 3%. You’d be pulling the trigger on your family as well.

  61. angiewhitelondon

    I read this today. What’s your view on this statement giving your analysis of the data so far?

    The Council on Hypertension of the European Society of Cardiology wish to highlight the lack of any evidence supporting harmful effect of ACE-I and ARB in the context of the pandemic COVID-19 outbreak.

    The Council on Hypertension strongly recommend that physicians and patients should continue treatment with their usual anti-hypertensive therapy because there is no clinical or scientific evidence to suggest that treatment with ACEi or ARBs should be discontinued because of the Covid-19 infection.

    1. AhNotepad

      My question would be, what was the evidence showed a hypertension drug was needed in the first place? Other than the reading was above an arbitrary limit.

      1. Göran Sjöberg


        Being myself a very severe MI-case since 1999 I though decided to refuse all pills offered within a year (and the comprehensive CABG scheduled as well). Instead I took the Hippocratic advice of letting my food be my medicine and my medicine be my food.

        It all turned into the LCHF plus vitamin supplements and this seems to have worked pretty well since.

        And of course Cognac is a medicine also in these Corona days.

      2. Muhammad Daniel

        Interesting. Yes I’m finding myself going down that route (minus the Cognac!). Any tips on LCHF and vitamins? Practically finding it tricky what with a wife and kids who love their carbs and sugar!

  62. Soul

    A hopeful but troubling article, with some politics wrapped up into it, about how the prediction models for the spread of the virus have been wrong. The numbers have been overestimated, sometimes greatly. According to the author government officials, in America at least, have been relying upon prediction data from a group called COVID Act Now a group based at Imperial College London. Their worrying fearful data has not been right though. If past poor performance remains true in the future for COVID Act Now, hopefully politicians will make adjustments to their lock down actions.

    “Inaccurate Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-Advised Lockdowns”

    1. AhNotepad

      Soul, that really is a bad revelation. For those who may have thought it might be not too bad, here is a quote “Perhaps the goal of COVID Act Now was never to provide accurate information, but to scare citizens and government officials into to implementing rash and draconian measures. The creators even admit as much with the caveat that “this model is designed to drive fast action, not predict the future.”

      They generated this model under the guise of protecting communities from overrun hospitals, a trend that is not on track to happen as they predicted. Not only is the data false, and looking more incorrect with each passing day, but the website is optimized for a disinformation campaign.

      A social media share button prompts users to share their models and alarming graphs on Facebook and Twitter with the auto-fill text, “This is the point of no return for intervention to prevent X’s hospital system from being overloaded by Coronavirus.”

      All UK readers should write to their MP (Grrrr!!! I’ve just seen the talking head on the TV saying we have to stay indoors, don’t meet people, protect the NHS) So we just believe slogans generated by implementing a flawed model that was designed with an agenda other than to deal with a risk of infection. Protecting the NHS doesn’t seem to have been uppermost in all governments’ minds since Thatcher was prime minister.

      1. Tony

        I share your thoughts…….but sadly truth and facts seem to be irrelevant in the media and political argument….and yes, write to your MP, but be careful….your views will shouted down by the masses, to say the least!

  63. smartersig

    In a similar study of more than 100 000 individuals followed for 15 years, a strong, inverse association was found between t-C (total cholesterol) and the risk of being admitted to hospital because of pneumonia or influenza

  64. andy

    What happens when one is exposed to COVID-19 virus.
    Step 1- Breathe in virus infected air, or infect nasal passages with fingers
    Step 2- virus can get stuck to mucus and can migrate up and down air passages
    Step 3- the virus finds a lung alveolar epithelial cell that is exposed to the external environment. Normally a mucus glycocalyx layer protects the cell. Pollutants in inhaled air are normally cleared by macrophages residing in the alveola. Excessive pollutants will trigger inflammation (COPD)
    Step 4- Virus binds to alveolar cells ACE2 receptor and gains entry into cell by endocytosis
    Step 5- Viruses replicate inside alveolar cells and many new virus particles are released by excytosis
    Step 6- The virus is now in systemic circulation. Once present in circulation virus can spread through the body. There is abundant expression of ACE2 on endothelial and smooth muscle cells in virtually all organs. Enterocytes of the small intestine also sport ACE2 proteins and are in contact with the external environment. GI tract infected, virus can be excreted in feces.
    Step 7- Immune system is activated inducing fever. Outcome will depend entirely on status of immune system and health of subject. Lipoproteins are also part of the immune system, need lots of healthy LDL and HDL particles.

    1. andy

      Forgot to mention the mitochondria. The virus hijacks the cells mitochondria resulting in weakness and muscle pains.

    2. SteveR

      Strangely the paper on the development of Covid-19 in 9 patients in Munich showed no excretion/egestion of live virus only viral residues.

      1. andy

        SteveR: Not sure what happens in test tube containing blood from an infected person, I could only speculate.

  65. andy

    What about incubation period? Pure guesswork when first infected to detection of fever, probably equivalent to any other virus. How long virus can survive exposed to air and on surfaces is more important.


    You are a wonderful human being. I am in Spain on lockdown and know all the politics of this virus. But as I am at risk ie over 65, on my own etc. I read about a cure from Cuba which can help with people with good immune systems and media have not published So I keep my friends in Spain informed and sent the report to Talk Radio Europe who have broadcasters who take a stance on the New world Order controlling this epidemic. Keep up the good work Malcolm.

  67. Göran Sjöberg

    I just saw an interesting note about the death rate in Italy. Of the 1016 total deaths , by March 13, 781 occurred in just a very small part of the country, Brescia/Bergamo. And in this region, during Dec – Feb, a free vaccination campaign involving 40 000 participants took place.

    If you are a vaccin sceptic as myself and and at the same time realize that a vaccination by definition must impact the immun system you hardly see this high number of deaths as a mere coincidence.

    1. andy

      Göran: suppose someone gets a free flu shot containing 3 types of antibodies. The bodies immune system gets into high gear to create sufficient number of antibodies to resist an infection. Now if same person is infected with a new virus while the body is busy making the other 3 antibodies the body might be defenceless to the new virus. Just thinking.

      1. AhNotepad

        In that case it makes even less sense. As I understand it, meningococcal infections are very rare. It doesn’t really matter waht the vaccine was, the majority of the vaccine will be similar. The main effect being to hyper-stimulate the immune system.

      2. andy

        Mr Chris: Not sure if that would make any difference to the immune system, one insult to the system on top of another cannot be good.The immune system is always in high gear.

      3. Anna M


        I believe the idea is that the vaccination would have weakened the body’s defense system. Doesn’t matter what the vaccine was for.

      4. andy

        Hi Anna: re vaccination and immune system, CRP is part of the immune system. Vaccinations put extra load on immune system.
        “Influenza vaccination resulted in a statistically significant CRP response of 0.35mg/L (p<0.001), representing a 30.2% increase from baseline. For individuals with symptoms of infectious disease at baseline, the CRP response was smaller (12.9%) and not statistically significant (p=0.77). Lower CRP at baseline was associated with larger CRP response to vaccination in the entire sample, and among participants without recent symptoms of infection”

    1. AhNotepad

      Geoff, thank you for the link. Every idiot politician involved in implementing these appalling measures should watch this, but they are probably too arrogant to take notice.

      If I get arrested for being out when someone thinks I shouldn’t be, I’ll try hard not to cough when my hands are cuffed behind my back. I might fail miserably…………….

    2. Tony

      Geoff, thanks for the link, I reckon that just about sums the whole situation up in a clear concise manner……I doubt the herd and the leaders will be interested in ‘facts’, the meme is up and running and the truth has got lost somewhere down the line!

      1. AhNotepad

        Dr John H, the problem is the lockdown is about control (of people) not disease management.

    3. Gary Ogden

      Geoff Arden: Thank you very much for posting that. Trump needs to watch it. Perhaps we can avoid the worst of the coming economic nightmare.

      1. KidPsych

        Good stuff, Shaun. I think the more granular the data related to lethality, the clearer people can see this crisis for what it is, rather than responding with fear tactics and panic. I’m an one of the apparent epicenters here in Seattle. My girls were sick a few weeks back, with my youngest having very distinctly red eyes, which I have now just learned might be a telltale sign of the virus. We’ve been good citizens and quarantined ourselves, so I’m not making light of the potential effect on others, particularly healthcare workers, but I do suffer from hysteria/panic fatigue (of others, not me).

      2. Geoff Arden

        thanks Shaun; I note 68% of “corona deaths” as being in Lombardy. Seemingly the population of Italy is 60 million; and that of Lombardy 10 million; I make that to be 17%; so 68% of deaths in a population that is 17% of all of Italy; does anyone find that curious? It could be many things: what is described as about the worst air pollution on planet Earth; so each winter they live in smog; .. who knows? but it seems disproportionate.

    4. David Bailey

      Thanks indeed for that video! I think this is what I have suspected from the start of this crisis. Virus detections were described as infections, and deaths were attributed to COVID-19 regardless of how sick the people already were with other things!

    5. Jerome Savage

      Compelling no doubt.
      Some consensus that polluted air is a factor. But Spain doesnt exactly fit the picture.
      Tho is smoking particularly prevalent across Spain – and if so is it enough to make a difference ?

      1. Jerome Savage

        My comment March 26, 2020 at 10:10 pm is In response to Geoff,
        March 25, 2020 at 9:34 pm

  68. elizabethhart

    My rapid response published on The BMJ:

    Is it ethical to impede access to natural immunity? The case of SARS-CoV2

    If children, young adults and others can mount their own effective immune response to SARS-CoV2, is it ethical to impede their ability to access natural immunity by interfering with the natural progression of the virus?

    According to the WHO, “Illness due to COVID-19 infection is generally mild, especially for children and young adults.”[1]

    Is the focus on future fast-tracked vaccine products blocking full consideration of the opportunity for natural herd immunity? Who is Neil Ferguson to say “The only exit strategy [in the] long term for this is really vaccination or other forms of innovative technology that allows us to control transmission”.[2]

    In regards to young people’s and others’ right to natural immunity, it’s also vital to consider the startling admission by Heidi Larson, Director of The Vaccine Confidence Project, during the recent WHO Global Vaccine Safety Summit, i.e. “…We’ve shifted the human population…to dependency on vaccine-induced immunity…We’re in a very fragile state now. We have developed a world that is dependent on vaccinations”.[3]

    This is a very alarming statement by Professor Larson, particularly with the prospect of other epidemics emerging in the future. We have to learn to deal with epidemics and illnesses as they emerge, it’s not feasible to vaccinate the global population against every threat.

    In a recent article raising concern about making decisions about this pandemic without reliable data, John Ioannidis notes that “School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease”.[4] The UK’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, raised the prospect of developing natural herd immunity[5], but this idea was subsequently howled down by Matt Hancock, the UK secretary of state for health and social care[6], and others such as Willem van Schaik, a professor of microbiology and infection, as reported by the Science Media Centre.[7]

    Again, is it ethical to deny children, young people and others their opportunity for natural immunity, and to plan to make them dependent on vaccine-induce immunity, to in effect make them dependent on the vaccine industry?

    This is even more serious to consider in light of emerging vaccine product failures, e.g. pertussis and mumps.

    The international community must be assured that independent and objective thinkers are carefully considering the way ahead on this matter.

    1. WHO Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19) – Should I worry about COVID-19. 9 March 2020.
    2. Elisabeth Mahase. Covid-19: UK starts social distancing after new model points to 260 000 potential deaths. BMJ2020;368:m1089
    3. Heidi Larson. Vaccine safety in the next decade. Why we need new modes of trust building? WHO Global Vaccine Safety Summit, 2-3 December 2019.
    4. John P.A. Ioannidis. A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data. STAT, 17 March 2020.
    5. Coronavirus: 60% of UK population need to become infected so country can build ‘herd immunity’, government’s chief scientist says. Independent, 13 March 2020.
    6. The UK backs away from “herd immunity” coronavirus proposal amid blowback. Vox, 15 March 2020.
    7. Expert comments about herd immunity. Science Media Centre, 13 March 2020.

    1. AhNotepad

      I have seen Matthew Hancock described as an intellectual pigmy. I think that is not appropriate. A bit too generous.

      1. chris c

        Agreed! And now he has coronavirus along with Boris and Prince Charles, When they discover how mild the infection is will they back down? I suspect not.

    2. elizabethhart

      Please note that Neil Ferguson, referred to in my BMJ rapid response above, is one of the authors of the Imperial College London modelling study which is having a massive impact on how the SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 crisis is being handled around the world, i.e. massively impacting on our economies and societies. This modelling study is discussed in the recently released documentary We’re Living in 12 Monkeys, which provides exceptional critical analysis of the handling of the global coronavirus crisis and how this threatens our liberty going ahead, posting the link to this documentary again, it is so important:

      1. elizabethhart

        Also, it’s breaking news that Neil Ferguson has now revised his figures…based on the lockdown? Hmmmmm

        Here are some perspectives:

        Have to think about this carefully…what is going on here…

      2. Mr Chris

        Elizabeth hart
        You may well ask what I s going on here. 500 thousand to 20 thousand because of three days confinement is pretty rapid.

    3. David Bailey


      I am technically in the high risk group because of my age (70), my partner is 68, and i have three good friends aged 71, 75 and 80.

      Ever since the start of this panic, I have always felt that asking the young to refrain from socialising, postpone their planned marriages, or lose the continuity of their degree courses, just to ‘save’ some people who were close to death in any case, was grotesque in the extreme.

      It is said that polio infected many who remained without symptoms so I guess ‘social distancing’ would have had a chance, so I suppose we could all have ‘socially isolated’ ourselves back in 1956 when polio was about. I was infected at age 6, and even so, I think imposing such a draconian regime on the country would have been too much to halt the spread of polio. This seems far more trivial than polio because it mainly affects the old and sick.


      1. Barovsky

        I’m 74, had a couple of heart attacks (stents), underactive thyroid but otherwise I’m healthy.I go out every day, do my shopping (great Portugese fish shop near me) but I don’t shake hands, I keep my distance from people, but that’s it. My GP tells me that she doesn’t consider me at risk. Part of me even wants to get the damn thing and get it over with!

    4. Geoff Arden

      thanks very much; indeed NF is a master of all things: dreaming up models; opinioning on the need for vaccines for all: …”The only exit strategy [in the] long term for this is really vaccination or other forms of innovative technology that allows us to control transmission” .. and in this article, an expert on intensive care: “And according to modelling by Imperial College, London the majority of this age group are likely to need critical hospital care – including 80 per cent of 80-somethings – putting immense pressure on the health system. ” Indeed, we are blessed to have his brilliance amongst us; what Tom Sowell would call, one of the Anointed. I recommend this.

  69. Tish

    I have to ask, if this isn’t about control, can anyone hazard a guess as to what is behind it? Why would governments suddenly want to protect the elderly with such extreme measures when they complain that they are living too long to make pensions viable? Are we preparing the way for Artificial Intelligence when most people will have a lot of leisure time? Who knows? Whatever their reason or reasons, I wish they would come clean and stop treating us all as fools.

    Unfortunately, whatever the outcome, the government will not be proved wrong. If their spurious statistics show an abnormally high death rate, they will say their actions were right. If the death rate is shown to be low or normal, they will say it is because of their actions. Those of us who currently appear mad to our families and neighbours because we have doubts, I fear, will never be vindicated.

    But persistent anger is bad for us! It’s hard to laugh at all this though.

    1. AhNotepad

      Tish, yes it’s about control. Censors are out in force. Look up John Bergman, look up event 201, look up bill gates and population control, David Ike (has SOME strange views, but he’s got a grasp of the control aspect) for more youtube vids. People think I’m mad too, so you’re in good company. I know they’re mad, and they can’t see what’s coming. It’s ridiculous going shopping. People are queuing 15feet apart at the supermarkets, and there are goons at the door policing the entry of the next customer. Ok while it’s dry and sunny, but it won’t be so funny when it’s raining cats and dogs. Talking of dogs, I was standing on the path today talking to someone who stood about 10feet away (bonkers) and three people came along walking their dog. Rather than walk past me, they crossed the road and used the path opposite.

      Great, I’ve just found I have the power to control people, and all I have to do is to be there. I wonder if I can get someone to knit me a wooly hat that looks like one of those pictures of a corona virus.

      1. Tish

        Well we are on the coast which is getting daily visits from helicopters and police cars, even though there are few people about. And yes, people have climbed banks to avoid me. Now that is something to laugh about, on one level at least.
        If Earth had a sister planet, I might queue for a flight there.

    2. Martin Back

      One thing that struck me is that this is a perfect dress rehearsal for actions that need to be taken if a country comes under nuclear, biological, or chemical attack, or there’s a major radiation or chemical leak affecting a wide area.

      1. AhNotepad

        Martin, they don’t need to be taken, this is being used as an exercise to see how much control can be exerted.

    3. David Bailey

      It is hard indeed to laugh at this. I feel this is the ultimate consequence of allowing science to produce patently biased/false results without taking any measures to stop this. This blog is about twisted, manipulated science – lowering cholesterol, encouraging T2 diabetics to eat more carbohydrates, etc etc. This is where that was all leading.

    4. Göran Sjöberg

      Good points!

      To me this is institutionalized hypocrisy. Why this sudden incredible “care” for the “elderly”? The Corona in this perspective seems to me to be a God sent gift to the “rulers of the world” to stay in power through suppression.

      And by what disgusting means, BTW!

    5. Geoff Arden

      thanks Tish; some suggest these folks are what Tom Sowell called “The Anointed”: they believe they know what is right for others, and they move to institute it; eg NF who has dreamed up his model; he talks on that; vaccines; intensive care ……. truly a kaleidoscope of knowledge that must leave all in awe; but try this video

      1. chris c

        I also like Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “The Intellectual Yet Idiot” (see Matt Hancock above

        Entertaining talk by Tom Naughton

  70. Martin Back
    Covid-19: The game is over?!
    By Jean-Dominique Michel, MSc in Medical Anthropology, Geneva, Switzerland.
    Kindly and expertly translated by Mrs. Helen Arnold.

    This article is long but interesting, although written in the sarcastic tone the French seem to have perfected.

    M Michel, who modestly admits he is a world expert on the subject, analyses why most Western countries adopted the wrong policies in dealing with the Coronavirus epidemic.

    Confinement of everyone is a poor second-best way to deal with the epidemic, one that is due to the lack of everything that would enable us to fight it effectively…

    Why did it come to this? Simply because we failed to set up the proper responses from the outset. The lack of tests and screening measures in particular is emblematic of this shipwreck: while Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and China made these their top priority, we were unbelievably passive in organizing such technically simple action.

    The above-mentioned countries have used artificial intelligence in particular to identify the possible chains of transmission for each positive case (smartphones, for example, can be used to inventory the movements and therefore the contacts that the infected people had with other people in the 48 hours preceding the development of symptoms).

    Last, we have significantly reduced the capacity of our hospitals over the past decade and we are finding ourselves short of intensive care beds and resuscitation equipment. Statistics show that the countries most affected are those that have massively reduced the capacity of their intensive care units.

    After raving about the benefits of chloroquine he says:

    The only strategy that makes sense is to screen massively, then confine the positive cases and/or treat them, as well as high-risk cases, since this is possible, as may be seen in China and Korea, whose treatment guidelines include a combination of massive screening and the prescription of chloroquine, included in their treatment guidelines.

    Neither Hong Kong nor Taiwan nor Korea nor Singapore, territories with the lowest mortality rates for Covid-19, have imposed confinement on healthy people. They have simply set up a different organization.

    Western decadence

    Unfortunately, this decadence is glaring, and unequivocally revealed in this crisis… We have high quality medicine, but a medieval public health system. Technological and scientific leadership has gone over to the Far East long ago, and our intellectual self-centeredness often makes us cling to the lanterns of the past rather than to present-day science.

    Here in South Africa we go into total lock-down at midnight tonight. No one except emergency personnel may leave their houses for 21 days. Not even to jog or walk the dog. Michel understands that for countries which lack the necessary resources, this is the only way:

    To close everything down unavoidably leads to economic and social disaster. Given the lack of means to apply the best strategy (detection – confinement – treatment), resorting to a lock-down is archaic and hardly effective, but it was the only one possible.

    1. Jerome Savage

      Another French Scientist Didier Raoult head of the IHU Méditerranée Infection institute in Marseille champions hydroxychloroquine “a cheap and easy treatment” for the effects of Covid-19 suggesting a 70% success rate. (Apparently the Arizona guy who died using the stuff, used a fish tank cleaner containing hydroxychloroquine)
      A Raoult supporter on the times states “viruses are not alive, so it’s not possible to kill them. Viruses are just pieces of genetic code. In and of themselves, they can neither survive nor reproduce. Viruses need to infect cells. In the interior of a cell, a virus uses the cell’s own DNA and RNA in order to reproduce. In other words, what a virus does to an infected cell is to control it and use it to manufacture new viruses. This new virus, in turn, can move out of the cell and go and infect other cells. The way to control any viral infection is not to kill the virus, it is to kill the infected cells that have been turned into viral factories. And that’s just what that extra oxygen atom on hydrogen peroxide does. Healthy cells – cells that are not infected by viruses – are equipped to handle the extra oxygen atom that comes with hydrogen peroxide because they have healthy antioxidant defense systems. But once they are infected with a virus, they lose much of their defensive capability, and are then easily destroyed by hydrogen peroxide. Hydrogen peroxide is so good at killing infections, it’s what God designed your immune cells to use to kill and control infections of all kinds. When your immune cells are busy killing the infected cells that make viruses, they make their own hydrogen peroxide to do it. And that’s basically how it works. Hydrogen peroxide therapy works by helping your immune cells do the job they were assigned. He uses a nebuliser to get it into the lungs. Give this formula to your doctor: To a 100 cc bag of normal saline add 5 cc of pharmaceutical grade 3% hydrogen peroxide. attach a delivery mask to the nebulizer output (see the device’s instructions for specifics). Then add 3 cc of the hydrogen peroxide mixture to the nebulizer. Place the mask over your mouth and nose and breathe until the solution is gone”
      Could it be that simple ?

      1. Shaun Clark

        Jerome: Hydrogen Peroxide? OK. Before I went LCHF I occasionally suffered from Rhinitis. Nothing much ever worked, and so I self-experimented after a truly terrible upper and lower chest infection two years back. What I settled on after much research was:

        In a mug of warm water (or Neti Pot)

        1 level teaspoon of salt (I now just use dishwasher salt)

        A few drops of baby shampoo (to ‘acceptance’)

        A few of drops 3% Hydrogen peroxide (to ‘acceptance)

        BUT the key ingredient I found was 1/4 teaspoon of Sodium carbonate (Washing Soda). NOT Sodium bicarbonate, although that might be better for kids.

        When I tried snorting this mix for the first time the multicolour snot quite literally burst out of my sinuses (I had a horribly infected sphenoid sinus at the time, as well as a shocking headache that would just not go). At the time I used a Neti pot for about 4/5-times a day. It worked a charm. Now, I regularly use this mix to snort and to gargle. Sometimes I even use this to brush my teeth. Needless to say that with the coronavirus today this is my every day prophylactic hygiene routine (about 3-times a day). This mix is cheap as chips. I have not had any bother what-so-ever since. Hopefully, this will get me through CoV19.

  71. JDPatten

    How old are you? Just wondering.
    Just wondering what the death rate of this disease is in your age group. 5%? 10%? 15%? Researchers will eventually collate some reasonably accurate figures.
    Meantime, I’m also wondering if you’re taking any of the “draconian” measures such as staying at home, or if you’re socializing.
    Just wondering.

    What are others of our blog group doing?
    My wife and I are stocked up with no need to leave the house for a couple of weeks, leaving the young and brave (foolhardy??) to go out into the world. Perhaps they’ll survive, seeding the virus around and effecting a degree of herd immunity. –Eventually–. Although the young and brave are dying too, albeit in far fewer numbers. Viral roulette.

    Does anyone want to be the decider and implementer of what particular group of individuals should die?

    1. AhNotepad

      How old are you?
      Just wondering what the death rate of this disease is in your age group. 5%? 10%? 15%?

      I fit in the 3.6%, towards the upper end.

      I’m also wondering if you’re taking any of the “draconian” measures such as staying at home, or if you’re socializing.

      You need to be a lot younger to start a head-on with the cabal. All my socialising has been stopped by the edicts. It’s only been about three days, and it’s sending me screwy. There are others who are in a far worse situation. Some are ringing the local radio stations, and they will have a shortened life expectancy if these measures don’t end, and quickly. As Dr Sucharit Bhakdi said in his video, the measures are grotesque, and the consequences are likely to mean more will die than would have died from Covid-19 influence.

      My wife and I are stocked up with no need to leave the house for a couple of weeks, leaving the young and brave (foolhardy??) to go out into the world. Perhaps they’ll survive, seeding the virus around and effecting a degree of herd immunity. –Eventually–. Although the young and brave are dying too, albeit in far fewer numbers. Viral roulette.

      It is not a matter of being young and brave. It is a matter of taking care of your immune system. I have no problem from a health risk point of view, of going out anytime. I ensure I am nutritionally protected, and that’s relatively easy to do unless you have some underlying chronic condition.

      Does anyone want to be the decider and implementer of what particular group of individuals should die?

      Yes, there are several people who are already working on this and it is happening now. They are looking to get rid of a large group of the world population, unless they are rich and powerful.

    2. AhNotepad

      Something appears to have stolen my first reply, it might turn up later. So a near repeat:

      How old are you? Just wondering.
      Just wondering what the death rate of this disease is in your age group. 5%? 10%? 15%

      I fit in the top end of the 3.6% range.

      I’m also wondering if you’re taking any of the “draconian” measures such as staying at home, or if you’re socializing.
      Just wondering.

      You have to be a lot younger to indulge in a head-on with the ruling class. My socialising has been wiped out by the edicts, It has been three days and it’s sending me screwy. Others are in a lot worse position. Some are ringing local radio stations, and if this doesn’t end quickly, they might well be looking at reduced life expectancy. Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi described the measures as grotesque.

      My wife and I are stocked up with no need to leave the house for a couple of weeks, leaving the young and brave (foolhardy??) to go out into the world. Perhaps they’ll survive, seeding the virus around and effecting a degree of herd immunity. –Eventually–. Although the young and brave are dying too, albeit in far fewer numbers. Viral roulette.

      Unless you have an underlying chronic condition, I see it as a matter of looking after your immune system. You don’t have to be young, brave or foolhardy to go out, I have no concerns about catching anything.

      Does anyone want to be the decider and implementer of what particular group of individuals should die?

      Yes, there are already people who want to do this, they are the ruling class.

    1. SteveR

      But, can guinea pigs get it?

      Like us they do not make Vit c and rely on recycling ( I think) so when ill they are given extra at 50mg/kg/day.

      For some reason we are not considered to need ‘topping-up’

    1. Shaun Clark

      Agreed. Such a critical supplement. After this debacle, there must be a major, major change in diet, in smoking habits (…Vaping! Are you kidding me!!), drugs, general health, basic medicine, and not least in everyday lifestyle, and of course, and not least, the environment. Who is going to lead this? Malcolm? Ivor? Nadir? Geoff? Gary? David? Zoe? Aseem? I dunno. Far, far too many folk are presenting themselves as victims. Its something of the bizarre (celebrity?) culture we have (innocently?) engendered, that only ever helps to make the bandit puppet-masters invisible. The simplistic way out is to ask (all over the world)… “just give me a pill”, and, “I just want to carry on as is”. THAT is the basic problem. People are fucking, fucking lazy. Time and time again the ‘audience’ falls for the common trick of… A new drug. Wow. Even auntie BBC are brilliant at stoking it (well, they have a Gov. licence for it). Get real peeps! You really, really suck. Are we just being gamed… again?

  72. SteveR

    As I understand it, there are blood tests that can show;
    A) the presence of the live SARS-Cov2 virus
    B) the presence of ‘residue’ of SARS-Cov2 virus And
    C) the presence of antibodies to SARS-Cov2 virus

    Questions: which tests do I need and which results from them in order to be
    1) safe to come into contact with someone who has Covid-19 or
    2) safe to come into contact with a vulnerable person who has not had Covid-19

    1. Geoff Arden

      Thanks SteveR
      this was posted 10 days ago;

      the person alleged “There is no proof that a virus is being detected by the test and there is absolutely no concern about whether there are a significant number of false positives on the test.”

      he also alleged “If the virus exists, then it should be possible to purify viral particles. From these particles RNA can be extracted and should match the RNA used in this test.”

      “The coronavirus test is based on PCR, a manufacturing technique. When used as a test it does not produce a positive/negative result, but simply the number of cycles required to detect genetic material.”

      So this person has been studying viral issues for 15yrs: he investigated the SARS issue after it all settled down. He has written on it. You can find him I understand in various podcasts. You can dismiss with whatever term you wish; but he make statements, that “scientists” should be able to support or dismiss;

      I understand him to have a maths/physics background.

      Re your comments on “being safe”: some have commented how we gone from bustling into bars, pushing against each other on Tube trains; happily singing lustily in choirs together, travelling on planes, having good meals in busy restaurants; to being terrified;

      from here the very regarded virologist comments that the virus spreads rapidly; as viruses do. So it may well have been buzzing around since November; many have already experienced it; had mild or non-discernable episodes; this is one hypothesis, said to offer comfort in a world where everyone seems terrified out of their wits. All that is posted here is in the interests of debate and reflection.

  73. Geoff Arden

    some have pointed out that our attention was drawn to a virus from Wuhan in Jan? Wuhan has the largest virology research labs in China. Perhaps coincidentally such cities are recognised for much air pollution; and very cold in the winter. Then deaths were reported in the Po Valley of northern Italy; we all perhaps think of Italy as olive trees and green pastures but a friend pointed out this article and it is verified here … indeed air quality is said to approach “worst in the world” in this part of Italy, in their winter.

    I was pointed to articles in the medical literature.

    One, commenting on “excess deaths” said “We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, ” This can be seen in the EuroMo data someone else kindly supplied.

    They further said of these excess deaths “Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.” Could one add that those who have lived in badly polluted air for many years, are at risk of lung disease and illnesses?

    Indeed another paper commented about the rise of what we might term Italian boomers of the 1920: and how there were far fewer born during and after WW1: so this medical article commented “It is then clear that if there are 40% more persons at risk of manifesting an event, that is death, we must also expect that there are 40% more events, that is, deaths.”

    So the recording of “excess deaths” may also rise if the number in each cohort changes markedly … ie one may think many more are dying; it is just more in that age-group. All stuff that needs careful and dispassionate work; the MSM does not have that time!!

  74. anglosvizzera

    Hmmm…not as bad as he predicted originally then:

    “Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

    “He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

    “The need for intensive care beds will get very close to capacity in some areas, but won’t be breached at a national level, said Ferguson. The projections are based on computer simulations of the virus spreading, which take into account the properties of the virus, the reduced transmission between people asked to stay at home and the capacity of hospitals, particularly intensive care units”

    1. JDPatten

      Neil, correcting misapprehension of what he said. (It is that bad.)

      1. Shaun Clark

        Mmmm. My son has recently gone back to work (he is head of design and development at an engineering company in the UK), and they have just switched their production to making beds for the NHS. A very large amount of beds.

    1. AhNotepad

      “We’ve made up our minds, don’t confuse us with facts”.

      The one thing that might saves from this hell, is that another hell may happen first, ie. world economic collapse. Strange that Mr Gates wants to save all these lives by vaccinating, yet he says it will be one factor that will lower the world population by 15%.

    2. Geoff Arden

      thank you anglosvizzera; it is surely alarming to read such documents. We seem increasingly polarised between Big Brother and all the well-meaning souls who think that way; and those who have some vague memory of freedom, and choice.

      A general comment on the forum; I think it is a great celebration of “The Wisdom of the Crowds” that Tom Naughton talks of; I have found some many, many good things to read from folks who post: so a universal thank you to all. Perhaps if I post a link to Tom’s talk on “the authorities” who issue food guidelines; The “authorities: know what is best for you; they have the best of intentions for you. Relax, let them do it all. That sense seemed to jolt in the UK, where they didn’t seem to want folks in Brussels setting the rules. However is it all fine if folks in Whitehall do it for them?

      1. mmec7

        Loved your link Geoff – Felt exonerated in my pleas and outspoken comments on social media – which are pretty much confined to this blog, and blessed sanity of many out there. Cheers for Tom Naughton; Noakes; Nina Teicholz; Jason Fung; Frettke; Wakefield – and sanity.
        As for “what is coming”. Been on the cards for a long time – the ‘anointed’ driving the pharma and Big Ag vehicle. Wondrous !! Will be well gone before it achieves total strangulation.

    1. Martin Back

      I watched the video. He might be right in saying this is a typical coronavirus and something we shouldn’t panic about, but he totally ignores the fact that it resulted in so many people piling up in hospital that the medical system couldn’t cope. He says it’s all some big conspiracy, but doesn’t say what course of action a non-conspiratorial government would have taken, and what the outcome of that course of action might be.

      It’s all so simple when you pick some facts and ignore others when you present your theory.

      1. KidPsych

        That’s interesting. I didn’t interpret what he stated as this is a typical coronavirus. I understood that statement as reflecting an idea that the virus is not the Andromeda Strain, but rather falls within a range of illnesses that he understands. I think any information that elicits panic is not helpful. Clearly the virus targets those with underlying health conditions in areas where there is pollution and social factors that promote smoking, obesity, diabetes. In other words, rather than panic, take care of yourself to improve your immunity.

        My family has been isolated in Seattle since March 8, so we have been mindful of the potential for the virus to wreak havoc and kill people. But appropriate decisions about how to go about life cannot be made if people are panicking. I can work from home, so my life is restricted but not unpleasant at the moment. What happens to people who can’t work and did not have much in the way of savings? What happens to an already decrepit medical system if the economy tanks? Short answer: Healthcare will decrease and there will be deaths, just different ones than we’re seeing now.

      2. JDPatten

        Well said!
        And, the “facts” that one picks might not even be facts. Time has been so short. So much is still in flux.
        “. . . unknown unknowns.” Rumsfeld had something there. (Perhaps that’s all he had!?)

      3. andy

        Martin: present course of action is enforced, isolation and wait for a vaccine. Outcome is increased stress, depression, financial ruin, and divorces. There could be an epidemic of heart diseases and mental diseases that overwhelms the medical system.
        From what is known about the virus today, my proposed course of action would be to:
        – stop the isolation
        -censor news coverage about COVAR-19 to stop false news
        – create Ministry of Information to inform public of progress in fight against virus, report only lives saved
        – at first sign of fever doctors have to supply malaria meds and potent vitamin/mineral supplements
        – revise dietary guidelines because existing guidelines have accelerated obesity and diabetes
        – increase taxes on fructose, sugar, omega6 seed oils, and processed food items to pay for this program

      4. SteveR

        In the UK it is the case that our hospitals are operating at near capacity all year round and that it will not take much to break the system, especially where NHS staff are having to self-isolate leaving some London hospitals with 50% to 70% of staff available. In the absence of the self-isolating directive it is also the case on past practise that staff not actually exhibiting debilitating symptoms would be expected to be in work.

      5. Anna M

        It occurs to me that a lot of what is going on is about perception. For example, hospitals are regularly overwhelmed, esp in winter during outbreaks of flu and upper respiratory infections. Life becomes a near hell for the nurses. But it isn’t news and isn’t on the radar. For example, shortly before this outbreak a friend of mine got a brain aneurysm, and our small local hospital needed to transfer her to an ICU neurology bed at a bigger hospital. But the nearest logical one had no ICU beds available. Why? Who knows. This was the first week of March and there were no Covid cases in the state or the next one over. She had to go to a hospital almost two hours away.

      6. Martin Back

        People will put up with a lot if they think there’s a good reason for it. Not dying gasping for breath on a ventilator is a pretty good reason. So I think people will self-isolate, up to a point. But there are financial, and as you point out, emotional stresses, so the question becomes, at what point do you relax restrictions?

        Ideally, as people develop immunity, you could let them out and the rest must stay away from them until we have herd immunity, say 80%. But that depends on a reliable, quick, and cheap test, which I don’t think we have.

        So that leaves releasing on a schedule, and taking a probable second hit, maybe imposing a second round of isolation, repeat until it’s over or we have a vaccine.

        It shows the value of mass screening and vaccinations (if available), not to mention virus barriers like sanitizer and protective clothing. This virus attacks the lungs. Where will the next one attack? HIV of course is a coronavirus. Maybe we have an airborne HIV. That would be a disaster if we can’t respond rapidly.

      7. AhNotepad

        Martin, despite the hype from manufacturers (who don’t have to bother about product liability), and the bought MSM and politicians, vaccines have a litany of failures and adverse events. They are not even part of the answer.

      8. David Bailey


        The point is that COVID-19 is only supposed to bite hard on those who are very old or sick with other things – so that is presumably approximately the population of people turning up at A&E with problems – possibly greatly heightened by panic.

        I’d guess that if you have severe COPD (say) you would not get put on a ventilator to keep you alive a bit longer, but if you also had COVID-19, the guidelines would require (I am only guessing) the person to be ventilated! That would explain the panic over ventilators etc.A paper posted here a few days ago outlined how one man in his early 20’s was diagnosed with a severe form of leukaemia, but he also tested for COVID-19, so his death was recorded as being due to COVID-19.

      9. Martin Back

        Whether a person dies of COVID-19 or leukemia or any other comorbidity is a bookkeeping entry. It’s of interest to those who keep track of such things, but in the real world here and now, you have X number of sick people — what do you do with them? How do you allocate medical resources? How do you decide who gets priority and who gets abandoned to their fate? What’s your best guess as to what will happen next week or next month? How do you plan ahead?

        People are having to take real-time decisions with life-or-death outcomes based on what they can learn from others in the same boat and their own intuition and knowledge of similar outbreaks. I don’t envy them, and from what I’ve heard unofficially we the public don’t grasp the full extent of the damage this virus causes.

      10. AhNotepad

        Martin, it is impossible for the public to grasp the full extent (reality) of the damage. We are fed a prescribed narrative by the mainstream media, which has a vested interest in the medical industry. The industry funds the media, and industry trolls label anything that differs from the narrative as “mis-information”.

    2. Martin Back

      I am reminded of the cartoon where a scientist has a forest of equations scribbled on a blackboard, and somewhere in the middle of them are the words “and then a miracle occurs”.

      Somewhere in the middle of the alternative epidemic stories would be the words “and then the government intervened”.

  75. David Bailey

    A long time ago, Joe posted this extraordinary link, which is still live:
    Can anyone shed any light about how this assessment relates to our current situation?

    Status of COVID-19

    As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

    The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

    The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

    The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.

    Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios.

  76. Geoff Arden

    on March 26th, 8.51am Shaun posted a pdf from Italy that showed 68% of “corona deaths” as being in Lombardy. Thank you Shaun. Seemingly the population of Italy is 60 million; and that of Lombardy 10 million; I make that to be 17% of Italy; so 68% of deaths in a population that is 17% of all of Italy; does anyone find that curious? It could be many things: what is described as about the worst air pollution on planet Earth; so each winter they live in smog; a very elderly population; many co-morbities; .. who knows? but it seems disproportionate.

  77. elizabethhart

    In an Australian Prime Ministerial media release today, the Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy says: “So, we have just over 3,000 cases in Australia and we are worried. We are worried about the growth.”

    That’s just over 3,000 *cases*, the majority of which would presumably be ‘generally mild’.

    Australia’s population is 25.4 million. Using the 3,000 figure, according to a friend’s calculations this means 0.01 percent have ‘generally mild’ COVID-19.

    Is that figure correct?

    But what does that figure mean anyway, as who knows how many active cases there are, and how many might already be immune, because not everyone is tested?

    I continue to wonder if the current severe hindrances imposed on the lives and liberty of 25.4 million people are justifiable?

    Certainly there’s going to be demands for evidence to support what is taking place right now.

    1. AhNoteapd

      Elizabeth, there will be a few who want answers to the questions, but from what I’ve encountered when I tell people they are unlikely to even get, the virus and to experience more than mild symptoms, it’s easy to tell they fall into the “answers that can’t be questioned” group. They all seem to believe the grim reaper will get them if they are close to someone else.

  78. elizabethhart

    In Australia, “a group of eminent Go8 infectious diseases researchers” was convened “to discuss and synthesize recommendations on the scope and scale of Social Distancing Measures, with particular attention to School Closures and Public Gatherings in the context of Australia’s response to COVID”.

    It would be useful to know who are the often faceless people who make ‘recommendations’ impacting on millions of lives…

    In the interests of transparency, I’ve forwarded a request for the names of these people, this information should be openly accessible for the public.

    1. Geoff Arden

      Thanks Elizabeth: I am not sure if you have come across the works of Tom Sowell; in this video, he talks of “The Anointed”; it is a short video and you may recognise some of the characters he describes; if anyone is taken with Tom talking, one can google on longer versions. Tom Naughton has been quite influenced by Tom Sowell. His recent video is embedded in this page

  79. Tish

    Deaths from influenza have been quite low over the past two years so that chronically sick very elderly people who would normally have died of pneumonia, the old person’s friend, are more likely to succumb to the next virus doing the rounds. Surely this is expected. And surely a short period of dying is preferable to a drawn out one.

    I’ve had my daily coastal walk and for most of it met with no one. The car parks have all been closed. A hotel has new threatening notices displaying a warning that they have CCTV operating everywhere. How nice. I thought I’d pop into our local shop for some eggs but gave up when a lone customer queuing shouted at me to say that I couldn’t go inside yet (I was in the middle of reading a board full of instructions about entry) and that “YOU HAVE TO STAND OVER THERE!” Still, I enjoyed my walk. A peregrine falcon came down less than 2 metres from me!!

    1. Geoff Arden

      Thanks Tish; I feel great sorrow reading your post; you write so well; there is so much wisdom.

      To support your comment on “Deaths from influenza have been quite low over the past two years”

      you are so right: this link shows deaths in Europe since Jan 2016. So folks can see peaks: eg Spain; each year in their winter, they have a large spike of what this chart reports: “excess deaths”; a friend of mine suggested that while the MSM is reporting the now in Spain, it is not being reporting what happens every year.

  80. KidPsych

    At least Mexico is figuring out some important trends in health…

    FTL: “Coronavirus isn’t that lethal, except for people who have underlying health conditions that complicate it,” said Dr. Abelardo Avila, a researcher at the Salvador Zubiran National Institute for Medical Sciences and Nutrition. “Unfortunately, that’s the case for many millions of Mexicans.”

    When details of the coronavirus deaths in Mexico became public, even health officials who had previously urged the population to remain calm began to acknowledge the scale of the problem the country is facing.

    “Obese people, particularly morbidly obese ones, are the ones who are at biggest risk to suffer complications if they contract coronavirus,” said Ricardo Cortes, a Mexican health official.

  81. Soul

    An unflattering article about the French researcher that found in a study that malaria drugs can help fight against the Wuhan virus ~

    “As COVID19 pandemic rages on, French microbiologist Didier Raoult offers a cure. President Trump is convinced, but is Raoult’s research reliable, here and in general?”

    I hope the malaria drugs works. It certainly seems to have a buzz to it with testimonies of it helping. Then again as poor of quality as research has become it would not surprise me if the drugs doesn’t live up to expectations.

    1. andy

      Soul, the theory is sound. Conducting randomized studies looks improbable, there are too many confounding factors. Everyones immune and health condition is unique plus when combining that with poly-treatment it would be difficult to untangle what effect one drug would have.
      If a doctor prescribes malaria drug to infected patients and they do not end up in ER, that would be a reliable test.

  82. Tish

    Self isolation activities

    Heard a Dr. on TV say to get through the boredom of self isolation we should finish things we start and thus have more calm in our lives. So I looked through the house to find all the things i’ve started but hadn’t finished…so I finished off a bottle of Merlot, a bottle of Chardonnay, a bodle of Baileys, a butle of wum, tha mainder of Valiumun srciptuns, an a box a chocletz. Yu haf no idr how feckin fablus I feel rite now. Sned this to all who need inner piss. An telum u luvum xx

  83. Sylvia Brooke

    I had a lovely surprise a little while ago. Just before darkness fell I went into the garden to get a bit of fresh air before locking up for the night. There on the doorstep was a lovely bunch of daffodils, which had not been there ten minutes earlier when I locked the shutters. Just an act of kindness on somebody’s part which lifted my spirits and made me feel so much better. Whoever it was just made my day, and I wanted to share it with somebody. I may go and find a half-empty bottle now Tish !!

    1. elizabethhart

      I can recount a similar experience Sylvia. My aged parents recently received a lovely note in their letterbox from neighbours, prepared by the children, offering to help in any way. How lovely. 
      As a counterpoint though, my parents are much more socially isolated under this new regime. I’m their main social contact and used to go and visit them twice a week, including taking my mid-80s Dad out to the pub for a drink, an outing that was the highlight of his week. That’s gone now, can’t go to the pub. My Mum said she’d rather be dead if her daughter can’t visit her. I’m planning on visiting at the ‘dictated social distance’, and sit outside and have a can of Guinness with my Dad. 
      The local council has stopped the home library service because of COVID-19, so my Mum has lost this important service. How grim is this? And all on the back of Neil Ferguson and co’s modelling study it seems…  
      I’m now asking Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and other politicians for the evidence supporting their draconian policies which are severely impacting on our liberty.

      1. Sylvia Brooke

        Thanks for that Elizabeth, a friendly and understanding message which is very much appreciated at this very strange time. I know isolating ourselves is probably a necessary evil, but I think some of the officialdom has gone crazy. For instance, I have had emails from British Telecom and texts from Virgin mobile both asking/advising me to use my mobile and land-line as little as possible to give priority to vulnerable groups. Since this emergency began I have sent only two texts and made two calls on landline – my only means of communication now. A text I sent over two hours ago has still not reached a young friend who offered help if needed. Plus the fact that I am included in the group which they have labelled vulnerable! being in the same age-group as your Mum and Dad.
        A Guinness in the garden with your Dad sounds like a good idea to me, and I have hundreds of good books which your Mum could borrow too, if it wasn’t for the distance involved!! All we can do now is keep as positive as possible I suppose. I hope you get a sensible reply from Scott Morrison.
        Our Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is in self-isolation now after being tested positive for Covid-19. The poor man has had a rough enough ride since he won the election, I think I will leave him in peace just now.
        Best wishes to you and your family. Take care, all of you.

      2. AhNotepad

        Sylvia, I wouldn’t worry too much (or even at all) about Boris. Remember the journalist in Iran, whom he managed to get imprisoned through his thoughtless words? The only time he has any concern for us low-lifes is at election time. Otherwise you can do as you are told.

      3. Geoff Arden

        Oh Elizabeth; it is all so terrible; I could tell 2 very, very similar stories from our family. My wife and I just shake our heads. We are aghast at all the madness; there, I said it.

        Somehow I have this naive hope that out of this may come a degree of reflection on how to treat older people with some humanity; and consideration; and respect; my own view is that scaring them out of their wits; and locking them indoors is so wrong: naturally, the “authorities” will disagree; I do value this blog that allows discussion; thank you so much to everyone for all the wisdom you bring, and the collegiality, in these lonely times. For anyone thinking less could be better, can I recommend “Too many pills” by James le Fanu.

      4. elizabethhart

        I’m just gobsmacked by the over-reaction that is going on, it’s surreal. It’s like living in an alternative universe. The thing that’s really doing my head in is that so many other people don’t see it?!?!? We’re now up to 18 deaths of elderly people in Australia (pop. 25.4 million), and I suspect these are very questionably associated with COVID-19. When will the scales fall from eyes…?!?!

      5. andy

        Hi elizabethhart: the politicians want to wrestle this beast to the ground, grab the bull by the horns, unfortunately they grabbed the wrong end of the bull and now they don’t dare let go of the balls

  84. chris c

    Great stuff from all which I will be reading/watching during my isolation.

    I was talking to someone today (well shouting from a reasonable distance while out walking in the sun where not many people were around) who had been scared shitless by a report from Iceland that the majority of their cases showed few or no symptoms. I took this as a good sign that the disease was mostly mild. She took it as a sign that we were surrounded by people trying to infect us without realising it. I suggested eating good food and going out in the sun to improve our immune systems. I could have mentioned vitamin C but what was the point?

    This is a better interpretation of the story than some

    1. David Bailey

      Here is the info for Wednesday:

      German researcher Dr. Richard Capek argues in a quantitative analysis that the „Corona epidemic“ is in fact an „epidemic of tests“. Capek shows that while the number of tests has increased exponentially, the percentage of test-positive people has remained stable and mortality has decreased, which speaks against an exponential spread of the virus itself.
      German Virology professor Dr. Carsten Scheller from the University of Würzburg explains in a podcast that Covid19 is definitely comparable with influenza and has so far even led to fewer deaths. Professor Scheller suspects that the exponential curves often presented in the media have more to do with the increasing number of tests than with an unusual spread of the virus itself. For countries like Germany, Italy is less of a role model than Japan and South Korea. Despite millions of Chinese tourists and only minimal social restrictions, these countries have not yet experienced a Covid19 crisis. One reason for this could be the wearing of mouth masks: This would hardly protect against infection, but would limit the spread of the virus by infected people.
      The latest figures from Bergamo show that total mortality there almost quadrupled in March 2020 from typically 200 to 300 people per month to around 900 people. It is still unclear what proportion of this was due to Covid19 and what proportion was due to other, locally specific factors or other causes (see above).
      The two Stanford professors of medicine, Dr. Eran Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, explain in an article (Paywall) that the lethality of Covid19 is overestimated by several orders of magnitude and is probably even in Italy only at 0.01% to 0.06% and thus below that of influenza. The reason for this overestimation is the greatly underestimated number of people already infected (without symptoms). As an example, the fully tested Italian community of Vo is mentioned, which showed 50 to 75% symptom-free test-positive persons.
      Dr. Gerald Gaß, President of the German Hospital Association, explained in an interview with the Handelsblatt that „the extreme situation in Italy is mainly due to the very low intensive care capacities“.
      Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, one of the early and vocal critics of a „Covid19 panic“, was provisionally excluded by the board of Transparency Internantional Germany, where he headed the health working group. Wodarg had already been severely attacked by the media for his criticism.
      NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warns that governments are using the current situation to expand the surveillance state and restrict fundamental rights. The control measures currently put in place would not be dismantled after the crisis.

      1. Jerome Savage

        Quoting REM (music group) “Its the end of the world as we know it – AND I FEEL FINE”
        Someone referred to the hysteria of MSM and how they ramp up the fear factor in all this and why false or misleading information should be tackled head on with imposition of fines etc. MSM will of course cry fascism and whine about infringement of the right to know. Shoddy journalism is one thing but peddling false information & hype (why not use the L word ) when cool calculating heads are required is criminal. How to prove the crime is the conundrum. What about a labelling system, mandatory colour coding of journalists based on credibility? (I know, I know, a minefield but otherwise it’s the most hysterical that wins)
        Which is why the various articles pointing to the hyper reactions of government are more than plausible but are spoiled somewhat by reference to Ed Snowden, by all accounts a decent sort but his comments interfere with a medical narrative that can more than stand alone. Possible intro of conspiracy theories here is unwarranted.

      2. David Bailey


        I sort of agree, but the problem is, censorship just seems to favour the elite or wrong-headed. I don’t know what the solution is against sensational MSM.

        There might be a conspiracy at the back of this, but I feel it is just a spasm of panic.

        I do wish society had tolerated far less bad science over the years. Malcolm for example challenged someone who was claiming saturated fat was a cause of heart disease, but it would be nice if a challenge like that could have some legal force.

        In the end, shoddy journalism shades off into lies. I don’t claim to know the answer, except I suppose that those who do manage to survive this Science Lead Panic will probably be sufficiently motivated to solve the problem for a few decades at least.

      3. AhNotepad

        David, I agree with your post. The MSM will mostly sensationalise stories, but they are aided, or even led by those who should know better, such as the government spokesmen/women and advisers, who make biased claims on such platforms as the BBC. Anything to do with Murdock’s publications is just vested interest driven, truth has no place in that empire, as Elizabeth Hart will testify.

      4. elizabethhart

        Hi AhNotepad, thanks for the call out! On the subject of Murdoch, Gates Foundation, conflicts of interest in vaccination policy etc here’s a video of a presentation I made in mid 2018: Big Pharma’s hijacking of ‘over’-vaccination policy – Conflicts of interest and lack of transparency and accountability:

        The transcript and slides are accessible via this link:

    1. andy

      Hi elizabethhart: makes sense, bigger viral load equals worse outcome, why?
      “In the immune system, statins harbor strong anti-inflammatory properties, which result from their capacity to interfere with the activation of proinflammatory cells, including macrophages and endothelial cells. More recently, T-lymphocytes have been identified as cellular targets of statins. Here we shall review recent findings, which document an inhibitory activity of statins on T-cell activation, proliferation, differentiation to Th1 cells and migration across the blood-brain barrier.”
      “A steady decline in the production of fresh naïve T cells, more restricted T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire and weak activation of T cells are some of the effects of ageing.”

  85. Geoff Arden

    AhNoteapd: thanks; I often hear that Richard Feynman said just that:

    “I would rather have a question I can’t answer, than an answer I can’t question.” I have been a great fan of his sayings.

    A very pertinent statement for our times?

  86. Soul

    A hopeful article from the New England Journal of Medicine.


    ….If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2…

  87. Martin Back

    Here are a few extracts from a comment on Kunstler’s blog. There is a lot of technical stuff as well that I don’t understand. No mention of chloroquine or vitamin C.

    “I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know.

    Clinical course is predictable.
    2-11 days after exposure (day 5 on average) flu like symptoms start. Common are fever, headache, dry cough, myalgias (back pain), nausea without vomiting, abdominal discomfort with some diarrhea, loss of smell, anorexia, fatigue.
    Day 5 of symptoms- increased SOB [shortness of breath], and bilateral viral pneumonia from direct viral damage to lung parenchyma.
    Day 10- Cytokine storm leading to acute ARDS and multiorgan failure. You can literally watch it happen in a matter of hours.

    Now we are discharging with oxygen if the patient is comfortable and oxygenating above 92% on nasal cannula… We know many of these patients will bounce back but if it saves a bed for a day we have accomplished something.

    81% mild symptoms, 14% severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, 5% critical.
    worldwide 86% of covid 19 patients that go on a vent die.
    Do not use steroids, it makes this worse.

    1. andy

      Martin Back, interesting to get a doctor’s perspective. Did a search re cytokine storm, apparently nothing has been learned from previous pandemics.
      “Interestingly, an investigation showed that vitamin C was beneficial for patients suffering from severe avian influenza. In fact, many plant-derived antioxidants (e.g., polyphenol, flavonoids, etc.) could also reduce the damage of epithelial cells and the mortality of mice caused by lethal influenza.”

    2. Geoff Arden

      thanks Martin for this; in many low-carb talks, speakers point out that up to 60% of the adult US population may well be diabetic or pre-diabetic; it has been known for ever that diabetics are much more prone to infection: the rates of diabesity and obesity are highest in the southern states of the US. Not a well population.

    3. KidPsych

      Bad news for New Orleans: 36% obesity rate for the state of Louisiana. I suspect mortality rates would be higher across the South.

  88. andy

    Why obesity and malnutrition are a risk factors for virus infections.
    Changes in Nutritional Status Impact Immune Cell Metabolism and Function

    Starve a fever
    “In the context of malnutrition, fasting-induced hypoleptinemia caused activated CD4+ T cells to produce less inflammatory cytokines IFN-γ and IL-2 “

    “Moreover, many epidemiological studies have shown dysfunction in both innate and adaptive immunity during malnutrition (138). This explains the increased susceptibility to many kinds of infection in the malnourished individuals, such as influenza, tuberculosis, Streptococcus pneumonia and gastrointestinal infections (140–143), and the poor response to vaccines”

    “Obesity, however, is also associated with susceptibility to a number of infections (144). One example of this is with influenza. This was first reported when studies on the H1N1 strain of influenza showed a connection between obesity and poor disease outcome (145). Indeed, obesity was found to be a risk factor for developing H1N1 infection and was associated with a longer length of stay in the intensive care unit and with higher rates of mortality (146–148). Following the discovery that obesity increased risk and mortality from H1N1 flu, obesity that was subsequently found to be is an independent risk factor for increased morbidity and mortality from all strains of influenza.”

  89. Judy B

    Two questions (sorry if these have been discussed before but I cannot wade through all 400+ responses at this time):
    1. Has there been any word on how many of those infected were on statins?
    2. Any word on the smoking status of the infected?

    1. andy

      Hi Judy: the elderly population is probably 50% on statins. One of statins pleiotropic effects is immune system modulation, meaning that a person will be worse off if exposed to a virus. On the other hand shutting down immune system for few days with a high dose statin might prevent a cytokine storm. Have to know how a viral infection progresses.

      1. Geoff Arden

        thanks Andy: the phrase “a cytokine storm” seems a wonderful piece of obfuscation: what those on the scene see, is a person getting much iller: one can come up with all sorts of explanations:
        (I am reminded of the phrase …….. your idea is logical, compelling and completely wrong ..) so all that folks see is someone getting iller: give it a fancy title: which means I would suggest: to be honest, I don’t know.

      2. andy

        Hi Geoff: re cytokine storms, not sure what else to call an out of control immune response, how about hyper-iller syndrome
        “Diseases such as covid-19 and influenza can be fatal due to an overreaction of the body’s immune system called a cytokine storm.
        Cytokines are small proteins released by many different cells in the body, including those of the immune system where they coordinate the body’s response against infection and trigger inflammation. The name ‘cytokine’ is derived from the Greek words for cell (cyto) and movement (kinos).
        Sometimes the body’s response to infection can go into overdrive. For example, when SARS -CoV-2 – the virus behind the covid-19 pandemic – enters the lungs, it triggers an immune response, attracting immune cells to the region to attack the virus, resulting in localised inflammation. But in some patients, excessive or uncontrolled levels of cytokines are released which then activate more immune cells, resulting in hyperinflammation. This can seriously harm or even kill the patient.”

  90. andy

    What happens to infected cells?: unfortunately they die
    “CD8+ T cells (often called cytotoxic T lymphocytes, or CTLs) are very important for immune defence against intracellular pathogens, including viruses and bacteria, and for tumour surveillance. When a CD8+ T cell recognises its antigen and becomes activated, it has three major mechanisms to kill infected or malignant cells.”

  91. Dr. John H

    Fantastic quick read summary: “12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic”

    One of the experts is Dr. Peter Goetzsche who is well respected on this site, he says : “…remember the joke about tigers. “Why do you blow the horn?” “To keep the tigers away.” “But there are no tigers here.” “There you see!”

    1. andy

      A few years from now what we are experiencing today will be remembered as the “good old days” if politicians remain in charge of public health.

      1. Tish

        Yes Andy and it is frightening to see how easily people can be controlled and kept passive in the main. The present mess is an example of it. We have already seen with the cholesterol issue, statins, excess carbohydrates, etc. that intelligent and generally quite thoughtful people can be entirely negligent and passive in the area of health. They appear to abdicate all responsibility for it. The few brave workers in the field who speak out so deserve our respect and thanks. Credit, it seems, rarely goes to those who deserve it. However they are treated, these people (including Malcolm, of course) can be happy to know that they lived with integrity. I only wish there were more of them.

      2. AhNotepad

        As you know the narrative is we must be socially dislocated or millions will die. On Radio 4 Any Questions this week, someone said that Bill Gates-of-Hell described the situation in a TED talk in 2015, as if he was predicting a possible natural event. It seems people don’t understand he is one of the architects, as 201 demonstrated

      3. Tish

        I suppose that various kinds of attention act as a sort of placebo with some people, which might offset some harmful effects a little. For example, “My doctor is lovely. He/she is very pleased with me. He gives me regular tests. I have several expensive drugs to keep/make me well. I’ve had a wonderful gold standard procedure.” And then there might be, “Jesus loves me. I think I must have a guardian angel…..” And so the effort of getting involved can be avoided.

    2. Soul

      It is fascinating at how fearful people have become over this virus. It’s an issue obviously but one that can be addressed successfully in a majority of cases. The press though keeps up a constant drum beat on the Wuhan virus, with lead articles on the number of infected in an area, writing dire articles. Now on my phone I’m receiving loud warning alerts that the virus is in my area. It’s entertainment for people I suspect.

      I figure at some point many people will become tired of it all. I’m sure many are scared greatly right now. At some point though that will become essentially boring, living in fear all the time.

      That is what happened with me. I have a fairly serious IBD condition. When ever I’d see a doctor about my condition I’d hear something frightening, often along the lines of, you’re lucky to not have stomach cancer, etc. I used to be scared of my disease. Now, after 30 years of living with this condition I’m more scared of going to a hospital if anything.

      1. Jillm

        The Australian media don’t broadcast good news, such as the 103 year old lady who recovered and went home.

    1. Dr. John H

      Well worth watching the whole hour! Very insightful. He also has a brief article here:

      From the article:
      “If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.”

      1. AhNotepad

        Dr John H, Thank you for the links, and thanks also to all the other contributors who provide references. It has made this blog probably one of the best resources for information about this virus panic, sorry, pandemic.

  92. anonymous

    About V.A. Shiva Ayadurai.
    An aspiring Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, contesting Elizabeth Warren’s seat.
    He sent a letter to the President proposing a immune boosting treatment with vitamins to end the disease.
    He recommends 100 grams of vitamin c for critical patients. In addition to 400,000 I.U. of retinyl palmitate (vitamin A) and 50,000 I.U. of vitamin D.
    Also, for people who have not yet been infected with the virus, he recommended iodine. But he does not provide a recommendation on the route of administration (probably oral), nor on the concentration of the solution.

    It is unlikely that medical doctors accept this. Unless the death rate soars, we shall not hear Trump talking about the vitamin megadose strategy.

    Now a question for everyone who dislikes or hates Trump. Would you be happy or sad to hear him recommending whatever cure or therapy you are rooting for? I dislike Trump and I would hate seeing him hijacking the vitamin/immune proposed solution. But I prefer him taking the honours of the cure and let people survive and recover than seeing hundreds of million people die without treatment. On the other hand, it may be that my belief in vitamins as a cure is wrong. Then it does not matter that the supid politicians recommend vitamins to people or “force” doctors to administer them. We will have to find a real cure.

    1. AhNotepad

      We don’t have to find a real cure. Nature will do that very effectively. My ancestors survived the black death, spanish flu, and others. I would hazard a guess yours did too.

      1. andy

        AhNotepad, until nature solves the pandemic we have to rely on treatments and there will be many to choose from that could be beneficial. First on list is wash hands, second……..

      2. AhNotepad

        Andy, nature will find it harder to get a solution while humans, in their arrogance, continue to interfere, and generate an even larger problem.

      3. andy

        AhNotepad, agree, there are “natural” treatments that do not try to fool the body and then there are “high tech” treatments that try to outsmart our genes
        A high tech vaccine for CORD-19 will be an interesting study.

    2. Martin Back

      Re: immune boosting treatment with vitamins

      We’ve seen this movie before, here in South Africa. This treatment, proposed by Dr Rath as an alternative to conventional ARVs, proved to be totally ineffective, but because the political establishment bought into it and delayed the universal roll-out of ARV treatment, it led to thousands if not 100s of thousands of excess deaths and we are now sitting with the highest rate of HIV infection in the world.

      I won’t give my true opinion of Dr Rath and his Orthomolecular Institute, but I consider him no better than a snake oil salesman and I would not trust anything coming out of his institute.

      Not that I’m against vitamins in general or vitamin C in particular. I have some fresh fruit every day to keep my levels up, and if you want to take more, knock yourself out. It won’t do you any harm, although I would worry about shutting down my vit C recirculating mechanism if for any reason I ceased taking excess doses.

      Where I do have a problem is mandating massive doses vitamin C in the absence of good clinical evidence for efficacy. All the trials I have seen reported conclude that it has some slight benefits but not really worth the bother. To which the reply is that the doses needed to be bigger to show benefit, and Big Pharma is suppressing the evidence.

      Well, doctors do talk to each other. If there was a substantial benefit to massive vit C doses, I would imagine it has been discovered and passed on unofficially among clinicians, never mind the published results, and become part of established practice. Since that is not happening I conclude that the benefits of vit C are modest.

      1. andy

        Martin Back: re vitamin C not a cure all, agree with that
        One needs a healthy immune system. One way to get it is to provide all the necessary vitamins and minerals, that is why I add extra selenium, zinc, d3, magnesium etc etc.. The body will use whatever it needs and hopefully excrete the excess. Immune system can be supported, “boosting” is a sales pitch. The problem with studies is that they can be designed to prove whatever one wants. My favourite ones are where the mice on a high fat diet do not do so well. If megadoses of vit C don’t work try adding some of Dr. Rath’s d3 supplement. The guy means well.

      2. Stuart

        Martin Back wrote: “If there was a substantial benefit to massive vit C doses, I would imagine it has been discovered and passed on unofficially among clinicians, never mind the published results, and become part of established practice. Since that is not happening I conclude that the benefits of vit C are modest.”

        Martin, that substantial benefit HAS been discovered and has also been studiously ignored by the medical profession. Dr Frederick Klenner was treating viral and bacterial infections with high-dose Vitamin C in the 1940s, including pneumonia, rabies and polio. In the 1948-49 polio epidemic in the USA he treated 60 patients with IV C and all recovered without impairment.
        He reported this at a medical meeting and a published paper but was ignored by the “experts”. In more recent times Drs Hugh Riordan and Robert Cathcart also demonstrated the power of vitamin C.

        So why has this been ignored? Firstly, medical arrogance. The experts couldn’t accept that a country GP could cure polio but they couldn’t, so they ignored him. Secondly, they are prisoners of their pharmaceutical mentality – “a pill for every ill”. This is what is taught in medical schools, that only pharmaceuticals are effective. Thirdly, whenever they’ve tried Vitamin C they’ve used tiny doses and then conclude it was ineffective. In recent days I read a news story about a trial using “high-dose” vitamin C against Covid19. Their “high” dose is 1200mg/day or 1.2 grams. By contrast Klenner used 350mg/kg (or 20-35grams for an adult) EVERY TWO HOURS. As Klenner said “Don’t expect control of a virus with 100 to 400 mg of C.”

  93. Gary Ogden

    Jerome Burne has an interesting post today about the use in China of both vitamin C and an old drug called Dipyridamole (DIM) as anti-virals. Worth a read. We already know that high-dose, IV vitamin C is a good treatment option for conditions including CoV, but a small pilot study in China in CoV patients using DIM shows promising results.

  94. Jeffrey Dun

    “Far more men are dying than women, with a ratio of around 3:1 – reasons unknown”

    I suppose there will be many reasons that many more men are succumbing than women. I have seen rates of smoking suggested as a possible cause.

    When I read this observation, it occurred to me that the fact that women generally have higher cholesterol levels than men may play a part. Cholesterol has a vital part to play in the immune system and Dr K produced a graph in The Great Cholesterol Con (p 91) which showed that the rate of non-cancer, non-cardiovascular mortality in women kept declining as cholesterol levels go up.

    Moreover we know that for those with FH, “it causes no symptoms, you are far less likely to die from cancer and you live longer than anyone else” (A Statin Nation p240).

    With this in mind I was interested to see a preprint of a paper in The Lancet entitled:
    “Low Serum Cholesterol Level Among Patients with COVID-19 Infection in Wenzhou, China.”

    The research analysed the lipid panels of patients hospitalised in Wenzhou with covid19 and found that :

    “The absolute value of white blood cells, neutrophils and lymphocytes were lower than healthy controls ( P <0.05), more significantly, the patients had sharply decreased total cholesterol (TC), HDL-cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol levels ( P <0.001), 3.70±0.09mmol/L, 1.18±0.03 mmol/L and 1.82±0.08 mmol/L respectively, and increased monocyte/HDL-cholesterol ratio (0.37±0.02 vs 0.28±0.01 in healthy control)………………………… Compared with the female patients, the male patients had higher levels of monocytes [(0.46±0.02) ×10 9 /L], M/HDL-C ratio (0.44±0.02), and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, 257.6±12.32 U/l).”

    Perhaps cholesterol levels could play a part in explaining the differing rates of death of men and women with covid19 in China.

    1. Geoff Arden

      thanks Jeffrey; lipids should be considered; this debate has raged for so long; statinastas advocate a very low LDL: then when folks point out those dying of cancer or infection have lower LDLs .. they go …… oh, that’s a paradox ….. but it’s because …. blah, blah, blah.

      Dr K has talked several times of the Hunt 2 study: reference not immediately to hand but we printed out the graph for a lady on statins; (reasons why on statins? ….. as Bob Geldof sang ……… And he can see no reason, ‘Cause there are no reasons, What reason do you need to be sure, Oh, oh, oh tell me why ….” We try to persuade folks of alternative facts, and for ladies, the Hunt 2 graphs seem to help; (as well as giving out our several copies of “Cholesterol Con” as loans ……)

  95. elizabethhart

    A doctor friend in India has shared this video of the lockdown there…

    As for ‘social distancing’ – how can that possibly occur?

    And yet the lockdown is creating many, many more problems, in India and elsewhere.

    So much for the ‘modelling’ from Imperial College London, anyone ‘modelling’ all the damage resulting from this global lockdown?

    1. mmec7

      Elizabeth – a very good video, stating exactly how it is now in India, but, it will get worse, unless this lockdown stricture is removed to let people return to their villages. The lockdown is an impossibility in India, the preponderance of its peoples live in poverty and squalor, cheek-by-jowl, scraping a subsistence living. I can but agree with the final hope, that this draconian and useless stricture does not lead to famine. I was there during one of the famines. Horrific. Why in hells name President Modi is trying to follow the West beats me. The man is……

      1. andy

        mmec7, the man is suffering from groupthink, a very common affliction among politicians
        “Groupthink occurs when a group of well-intentioned people make irrational or non-optimal decisions spurred by the urge to conform or the discouragement of dissent. This problematic or premature consensus may be fueled by a particular agenda or simply because group members value harmony and coherence above rational thinking.”

      2. mmec7

        Andy – This is not the first of his excursions,a former one was to try to withdraw actual ccurrency – actual rupees and paise from the marketplace. One despairs.
        The world lacks true leaders and statesmen.

    1. mmec7

      Excellent address – Takes the hysterical hype out of it. Wahe yr hands, don’t touch yr face, keep distance. Wash yr hands or use hand sanitiser. Cover nose and mouth, so helping not to touch face. Simples. As for shopping on yr doorstep, leave on doorstep, then pick up with gloved hand.
      All pointers in straightforward protocols. Thanks for putting this up kidPsych, good share.

  96. Geoff Arden

    I found this article …… it would seem the DT feels NF has “form”:

    His mathematical models were at heart of the BSE cull of cows and other animals: readers may remember the distress of it all; fortunately NF continued free to go on producing models.

    if you google for “Risk Intellingence by Dylan Evans and Paul Kitcher” you should land on the page where Dr Kitcher drily points reality did not substantiate the models; and much more; perhaps the most spectacular phrase from the above DT article; where NF was questioned was “Of his work on BSE, in which he predicted human death toll of between 50 and 150,000, Professor Ferguson said: “Yes, the range is wide,”

    …….. we can only be confident the same narrow margins apply for our situation;

    Dr Kitcher produced this report

    entitled “Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom.” I have printed it out to read it.

    I hope this all will be of interest to readers. I am so very grateful for so much good work everyone contributes: truly, the wisdom of crowds.

    1. AhNotepad

      Geoff, Thank you for the links. I would like to add my not inconsiderable expertise to the predictions, and I will be proved right, so watch this space. I predict between 100,000 and 7billion will die from CCP (aka covid-19). Dear Neil, I would like a job on your team. I know I will be one of the best resources you have ever met. Regards ,,etc

  97. Soul

    In light of what has been found here with ACE inhibitor medications and the corona virus, I saw this article the other day concerning the sad first death from the corona virus in the Miami city area. His name was Israel Carrera. He was 40 years young.

    There is a quick mention in the article that he had no other health issues other than he had high blood pressure. It’s speculation on my part, but I’m guessing he was taking an ACE inhibitor.


    ….The symptoms quickly escalated and Carrera went to the hospital. Conquista said Carrera was healthy and had no underlying health issues except for maybe high blood pressure.

    “He could not breathe and then they put tubes in his nose and his mouth,” Conquista said. “He couldn’t even get the tubes out to eat, because he couldn’t breathe.”

    Carrera died Thursday. He is survived by his mother, father, and brother, who all live in Cuba….

    1. Geoff Arden

      thanks Soul; so many of the “keto” or low-carb talks focus on hypertension; the very quiet and kind soul Dr David Unwin has done compelling work on “essential” hypertension: it only seems “essential” if you persist in consuming carbs;

      Insulin causes sodium (and water retention) in the kidneys; drop the carbs; drop insulin levels; kidneys work as planned: note: giraffes do not need to watch their salt intake;

      Folks need hyper-insulin-aemia (HI) to have “essential” hypertension; Ivor Cummins estimates up to 60% of the US population has T2 diabetes or prediabetes: predisposing to infection; bacteria and viruses love glucose. Cancers love glucose. Hispanics seem to have higher rates of T2 diabetes; the southern states of the US have higher rates: folks drink lots of chilled sugary beverages in those hot climes.

      I heard Jason Fung say to Ivor Cummins on a recent video discussion, that the average BMI of Chinese developing T2 diabetes: was 23.2% (in the “normal range” of BMI). Mosley’s TOFI. China has an exploding problem of T2 diabetes. We seem to have common themes: air pollution, smoking, diabetes ……. Tehran seemingly has bad winter air pollution.

  98. Mr Chris

    Dr K
    The lessons I take away from your two blogs on this subject, is that if you are over 80 obese hypertensive and have heart problems and are taking four or fives pills a day, if something like Covid 19, comes along, things could get pretty tough for you, so it is possibly in your interests to look at lifestyle changes to improve your condition

  99. anglosvizzera

    Are ED admissions related to respiratory illnesses really decreasing? Or am I missing something? And the all-cause mortality rate not anywhere like a few years ago?

  100. Geoff Arden

    thanks to one of our contributors who pointed out that “swiss doctor” has been updating daily; I had missed this; this quote is from an Open Letter to Angela Merkel

    “The internationally recognized International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents will soon publish a paper that addresses exactly this question. Preliminary results of the study can already be seen today

    ……. and lead to the conclusion that the new virus is NOT different from traditional corona viruses in terms of dangerousness. The authors express this in the title of their paper „SARS-CoV-2: Fear versus Data“. [3]” [3] Roussel et al. SARS-CoV-2: Fear Versus Data. Int. J. Antimicrob. Agents 2020, 105947

    could I also say from the abstract of “Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom.” (2006)

    here are some: I think … stark statements .. from what would usually be quiet academia …

    “During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the
    slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options”

    “The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.” (2006)

    at least a review of our current situation; in a year or two, can use the same phrase? .. saves thinking up new stuff.

  101. Geoff Arden

    and also from Swiss Doctor, a german radio interviews an Italian

    “On his blog, he currently describes the situation of Carabinieri’s arrest of a person because the man had dared to sit outside on a bench and wrote the following thought (somewhat shortened):

    “The last decree puts him at risk of 6 months in prison, especially if it is caught up in the clutches of the Rome public prosecutor’s office. It’s called a state of siege.””


    “”And we run the risk of getting sick, losing our minds. What do you expect to happen to a person who is stressed by claustrophobia who is forced to suffer alongside more and more garbage programs, hour-long threats and scary data on television programs ?

    The boredom, the absolute uncertainty urge you to eat and drink, with the forced immobility you become obese and burst high blood pressure .. “”

    we seem to be losing our humanity, our compassion, and particularly for UK people, any sense of compromise. How long can this be sustained for? What terrible consequences for mental health, domestic violence etc etc …….. a crisis has been declared: there is only the SOLUTION: (no consideration of adverse consequence, untoward effects, complications, compromises)

    Tom Sowell talks of the folks, the Anointed who specialise in this stuff (they always have the answer)

    1. Jerome Savage

      Thanks Bob.
      From that, the Doctor indicates 20 % of test positives need hospital treatment. Quarter of these need intensive care and of ICU patients with the Virus half die. Thats 2.5% death rate.
      The original sample is unknown, is it persons showing symptoms or general population etc etc ?

  102. Geoff Arden

    I am not sure it is a question of being “pat”: Bob; pray, who is being “pat”?

    It is perhaps about reflecting on several aspects of “lock-down”: will it alter the death rate: the simplest measure we have; if we look at there are big peaks of “excess deaths” in the UK around Dec2016 and Dec2017; but things carried on; we didn’t talk about it; similarly Portugal and Spain at those peak excess-death rates; it didn’t stop folks flying towards those epicentres of death: bring it on: I am British: I will fight the viruses on the beaches ….. for winter holidays in the sun at that time: why not cower at home in cold weather, terrified of the grim reaper in Spain and Portugal? Did folks avoid bars in UK cities then, terrified? Also see current trends across Europe.

    in the way that children get up from chairs after playing musical chairs and continue running around; can anyone believe that the world is going to get up and carry on and just be the same: there must surely be huge unemployment; that brings health issues: it’s just we don’t talk about them.

    I could perhaps say more: the untoward consequences of current actions means folks are dying alone in hospitals; no relatives allowed; no-one to hold their hands; how have we lost our humanity; was this ever done in the past? I again commend this article to readers: an opportunity to read about the past and reflect on it.

  103. Geoff Arden

    “Here are excerpts from an article by two men who are primarily journalists but who have degrees in biomedicine:
    “COVID-19 isn’t the first infectious disease scientists have modeled—Ebola and Zika are recent examples—but never has so much depended on their work. Entire cities and countries have been locked down based on hastily done forecasts that often haven’t been peer reviewed.
    “It has suddenly become very visible how much the response to infectious diseases is based on models,” Wallinga says. For the modelers, “it’s a huge responsibility,” says epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, who co-authored a report about the future of outbreak modeling in the United States that her center released yesterday.”
    “Because the virus that causes COVID-19 is new, modelers need estimates for key model parameters. These estimates, particularly in the early days of an outbreak, also come from the work of modelers.
    “Policymakers have relied too heavily on COVID-19 models, says Devi Sridhar, a global health expert at the University of Edinburgh. “I’m not really sure whether the theoretical models will play out in real life.” And it’s dangerous for politicians to trust models that claim to show how a little-studied virus can be kept in check, says Harvard University epidemiologist William Hanage. “It’s like, you’ve decided you’ve got to ride a tiger,” he says, “except you don’t know where the tiger is, how big it is, or how many tigers there actually are.”

    copied from above “I’m not really sure whether the theoretical models will play out in real life.”
    …… and from the FMD paper (2006)
    “The disparity between the course of the 2001 epidemic and the model predictions demands an explanation. ”
    “The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.”

  104. Geoff Arden

    so public policies are being guided by modelling; surely all accept that; comments above.

    from here

    “Instead, No 10 blinked, ditching herd immunity for an Imperial College research paper, which warned that hundreds of thousands could die without immediate, draconian action. ”

    “It .. argued that lockdown may have to continue for as long as 18 months, until a vaccine is found. This despite the fact there is no scientific consensus (a rival paper claims a few weeks of lockdown may be sufficient).”

    and from here

    on BSE: when asked why his predictions were so vague he said “… , in which he predicted human death toll of between 50 and 150,000, Professor Ferguson said: “Yes, the range is wide,”

    ….. how could anyone sit and take advice from such an unwavering person: surely one of this civil servants might say: Is this chap not stark, raving, bonkers?

  105. mmec7
    Latest – Hydroxychloroquine – Cardiac Deaths – Toxic Effects – France
    News Health
    EXCLUSIVE. Coronavirus: several fatal cases of chloroquine use in France
    VIDEO. Cardiac deaths and toxic effects have been reported in several French hospitals in positive people who took hydroxychloroquine. By Jérôme Vincent
    Modified 3/30/2020 at 9:07 AM – Published on 03/30/2020 at 06:43 | Le

    New twist in the global controversy around chloroquine (marketed under the name nivaquine) and hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil) to treat coronavirus infection. The pharmacist of a large French teaching hospital, correspondent for the Center for pharmacovigilance in his region, launched an alert Friday, March 27, with infectious disease physicians and pharmacists at his establishment. “Cases of Covid-19 positive patients [that is to say, whose infection has been validated by a test] present, with hydroxychloroquine associated or not with azithromycin [an antibiotic], rhythm disturbances or cardiac conduction, cardiac arrests in other French hospitals. Some of these judgments turn out to be “fatal”.

    “These cases are being evaluated,” said the point that pharmacist, and “will be forwarded to ANSM [national drug safety agency].” Information quickly circulated in the direction of infectiologists from other CHUs, anesthetists and resuscitators, all of these caregivers on the front line to save the sick victims of this unprecedented and meteoric epidemic.

    Reported cardiac toxicity
    Sunday March 29, the regional health agency of Nouvelle-Aquitaine brought additional items. “Cases of cardiac toxicity have been reported in the region following self-medication of Plaquenil [hydroxychloroquine] in the face of symptoms suggestive of Covid-19, sometimes requiring hospitalization in intensive care. ” (more…)

    (more cases are being reported)

  106. Geoff Arden

    On 30th March, this Swiss site reported

    “”Various media reported that more than 50 doctors in Italy have already died „during the corona crisis“, like soldiers in a battle. A glance at the corresponding list, however, shows that most of the deceased are retired doctors of various kinds, including 90-year-old psychiatrists and pediatricians, many of whom may have died of natural causes.””

    They report today

    On March 30, we mentioned the list of Italian doctors who died „during the Corona crisis“, many of whom were up to 90 years old and didn’t actively participate in the crisis at all. Today, all years of birth on the list have been removed (see however the last archive version).

    They politely comment (very swiss) “A strange procedure.”

    Thank goodness for archive copies: I was able to re-load the original: they want folks to see all the doctors (and dentists!!) as “dying on the barricades against corona”: sadly, as long retired doctors and dentists, they are more likely to be sitting sipping a fine Chianti, and it Italy, puffing on a cigarette. Were they in Scotland, likely sipping a fine malt whisky!

    Here are a few of those listed (titles translated to English)

    Luigi Rocca 24 12 1926 Pediatrician –
    Flavio Roncoli 08 05 1930 Pensioner –
    Francesco De Francesco 09 03 1938 Retired, former hospital doctor
    Bruna Galavotti 03 04 1933 Psychiatrist
    Carlo Zavaritt 23 02 1940 Pediatrician and child neuropsychiatrist
    Marino Chiodi 30 05 1949 Ophthalmologist

    1. AhNotepad

      Geoff Arden, please stop this. We sheeple cannot cope with the truth.

      Government orders new PPE supplies

    2. mmec7

      Geoff – For a time the GP whom I consulted with was a 92 year old. Very civilised, but he was so way out of touch – proved very difficult. One lovely story concerns his attending patients at a nearby retirement home. He arrived there, felt unwell, and was taken round in a wheelchair to see to his patients ! He loved cars, had two of them, one a very sporty number. Partook in cycle races in his mid 80s. Passed away in his mid 90s. Dear man, gavemeabook to remember him by – was in English, which was a bit outside his ken…! Had many a laugh (and stress) as we tried to communicate effectively !!

  107. Geoff Arden

    this person posted here see comments section

    “The major drawback is in the estimates of CFR (case fatality rate).

    A gross violation of basic principles of statistical inference is present in all papers on COVID-19 I have seen by the moment.

    Calculations are carried out as if a random sample has been drawn from a general population. Then, characteristic of this sample, as in statistical textbooks, are projected onto the whole population (with some statistical techniques, like CI, p-values, etc).

    And this is plain wrong and leads to overestimation of CFR, often to radical overestimation.

    In Italy, for example, only patients with quite serious symptoms have been tested for COVID-19.

    Naturally, CFR reaches 5–10%.

    In Germany, patients have been selected according to much less strict criteria. Naturally, CFR in Germany is 0.3–0.5%.

    The cohort is never selected randomly, i.e. when any member of the population has had the same chance to occur in the cohort.

    And in all published case the selection rule included some symptoms. Naturally, the CFR is overestimated.

    As for me, I see no any evidence against the simplest default-hypothesis, that COVID-attributed deaths are “normal” deaths reclassified under the new name.

    Vladimir Koliadin, Ukraine”

  108. Geoff Arden

    I thought Justice Sumption spoke well.
    “The real problem is that when human societies lose their freedom, it’s not usually because tyrants have taken it away. It’s usually because people willingly surrender their freedom in return for protection against some external threat.

    And the threat is usually a real threat but usually exaggerated. That’s what I fear we are seeing now. ”

    “the tradition of policing in this country is that policemen are citizens in uniform. They are not members of a disciplined hierarchy operating just at the government’s command. ”

    When asked “There will be people listening who admire your legal wisdom but will also say ‘well, he’s not an epidemiologist, he doesn’t know how disease spreads, he doesn’t understand the risks to the health service if this thing gets out of control’. What do you say to them?”

    (…….. and this could apply to anyone questioning statins; or our eat-badly diet advice …)

    He said
    “What I say to them is I am not a scientist but it is the right and duty of every citizen to look and see what the scientists have said and to analyse it for themselves and to draw common sense conclusions.

    We are all perfectly capable of doing that and there’s no particular reason why the scientific nature of the problem should mean we have to resign our liberty into the hands of scientists.

    We all have critical faculties and it’s rather important, in a moment of national panic, that we should maintain them.”

    I do hope these issues can be discussed in the coming months.

    1. Bob

      And one can’t disagree with any of that*, but there are sensible people like Feldman and Cummins who accept we need some distancing measures and that this is a real problem.
      *Actually, it depends. People have correctly worked out that masks are wise despite official advice, but others think it’s wise to change your clothes if you’ve been out and clean all your shopping. I’ve no problem with individuals taking a belt and braces approach but often people don’t show an understanding of the fact that as soon as the virus reaches a surface it begins to die.
      But how much do we really know? How long will your sneezed virus be viable on my apples? How far can you spread it with a sneeze? Do I need to worry about a specific temperature or just whether I’m hot to the touch? So much advice, to little of it the same.

  109. R

    Thank you for the overview. Would you add health equity into the mix. People with many years more of living, but who have less equity in health and health care, are hurt disproportionately when we frame this as an age related trade off. .

    and India!


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