COVID the strange the inexplicable and the weird

26th June 2020

This article was first published on RT.com

This is so weird and inexplicable I can’t fathom it: why did deaths in people aged 15-44 spike during lockdown, & only in England?

As a doctor, I occasionally get confronted with difficult, unexplainable things, but this is a mystery I cannot solve. What lies behind this unusual rise in deaths in an age group that isn’t vulnerable to COVID-19?

It has been almost impossible to make any sense of the figures on COVID -19 deaths from around the world. They do say that the first casualty of war is truth. However, the enemy, in this case, does not much care what anyone says, so there is no point in lying to it.

All it wants to do is move from one host to another and propagate itself. Why does it wish to do this? We don’t really know, it just does. COVID -19 doesn’t do interviews, but we can guess that its mission is to completely dominate the world.

Faced with the same implacable enemy, you would expect that every country would see similar patterns of infection, and death. Or, you might expect to see the same figures from countries that carried out the same actions. Essentially, did a country lock down, or not.

However, if you do try to compare lock down vs. no lock down, the COVID mortality figures appear incomprehensible. Belgium, for example, entered lockdown on the 18th of March, whilst Belarus did not lock down at all. Belgium has a population of 11.5 million, while Belarus has 9.5 million.

Belgium, as of the 22nd of June, had suffered 9,696 COVID related deaths.

Belarus, as of the 22nd of June, had suffered 346 COVID related deaths.

The death rate in Belgium, per million of population, is 847.

The death rate in Belarus, per million of population, is 36.

Which means that the death rate in Belgium is over twenty-three times as high as in Belarus. Yes, two European countries sitting at approximately the same latitude, both starting with the letter ‘B’, and they have a vastly different rate of death. What can we make of such statistics? The simple answer would be to say that I don’t believe the figures from Belarus.

Alternatively, you could say that you don’t believe the figures from Belgium either, because they have the highest death rate from COVID, per million, in the entire world. Why? Who knows? However, I would caution against dismissing figures that you don’t like, or don’t feel make sense.

After all, there are other countries that did not lock down to any extent, such as Japan, where there has been a death rate of seven per million, or one fifth that of Belarus. I think it would take someone very bold to simply dismiss the Japanese figures.

In fact, the death rate in Japan is very nearly the same rate as the rate in New Zealand, which has had only twenty-two deaths, and has been lauded for its aggressive lockdown policy and low rate of deaths. The NZ death rate is 4.9 per million.

In short, if you look around the world, there are no patterns to be seen, and the death rates between countries vary by more than hundred-fold. However, nowhere in the world have they been weirder, or more difficult to interpret, than in England, and – even more curiously – in younger people.

Around ten days ago, someone pointed out to me an anomaly so strange, so unexpected, that I have since spent a considerable amount of time speaking to other doctors, and statisticians, to find an explanation. With no luck so far.

First, to provide some context. The most accurate figures to use, in studying the COVID epidemic, are excess deaths. That is deaths from all causes, over and above the average from the last few years. If, say, 10,000 people normally die in the first week in April, a figure of 15,000 deaths, in the same week this year, would represent 5,000 “excess” deaths.

This figure is of crucial importance. Mainly because it can be fully relied on. From personal experience, I know that what is written on a death certificate is often no more than an educated guess. I also know that there have also been huge differences across countries in the way that doctors have been instructed to record COVID related deaths.

If an elderly person goes downhill rapidly and dies in a care home, and they did not have a test, did they die of COVID, yes or no? Probably, possibly? Doctors in the UK have been advised to write yes, while in other countries they are more likely to write no. On the other hand, there are tales of doctors in the US being coached to write COVID on almost all death certificates, because the hospital is paid more money if they do so.

Which means that relying purely on the statistics for COVID recorded deaths may be highly misleading. However, you can absolutely rely on the diagnosis of death. It is a tricky clinical condition to miss.

So, if you want the outcome that is the most reliable indicator that something truly significant is going on, you need to look at excess mortality rates. If they stay the same, you can be reassured nothing serious is happening. This is true however much the diagnosis of a single condition rises.

To provide this data, as close to real-time as possible, EuroMOMO (European mortality monitoring activity) was established. Currently, it monitors changes in overall mortality in 24 different European countries. England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are treated as separate countries. This becomes important.

EuroMOMO showed absolutely no change in mortality across all 25 countries until week eleven, the second week in March. It then rose rapidly, topping-out in week fourteen. By the end of May, everything had fallen back to normal. Which means the COVID mortality spike lasted ten weeks, from start to finish. Overall mortality rates are now lower than normal

It is fascinating that some countries showed a sharp rise in mortality, and some showed nothing. For example, Austria, Denmark, Finland and Germany – nothing. France, Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands, England – major spikes. Thirteen countries spiked, twelve did not.

Then, and here we get to the really weird part, is the data that was tucked away in a sub-section. A massive rise in mortality that was seen in only one country out of the twenty-five, and nowhere else. And a spike in the age group 15 to 44… one of age groups least vulnerable to COVID -19… and in England alone. Not in Scotland, Northern Ireland or Wales. It lasted five weeks and then disappeared.

Frustratingly, the figures on causes of death are not available – some types of death can take a long time to be recorded e.g. deaths from accidents, or suicides. So, were all the excess deaths from COVID, it seems unlikely as the total number of recorded deaths in this age group has been less than five hundred since the start of the epidemic and that is not going to create such a spike.

Might lockdown have, in some way, have caused it? Might the loneliness of it have caused a rise in suicides? Or a surge in drug overdoses? Or other reckless behaviour?

I don’t know… but if we are to truly understand what happened during the pandemic, we need to find out.

555 thoughts on “COVID the strange the inexplicable and the weird

  1. Elizabeth

    What is the gender breakdown in that spike in England in the 15-44 age group in that time frame? More men?

    Reply
    1. Mike C

      Considering weeks 11-22 deaths among 15-44 year olds for England & Wales (yes, I know Dr Kendrick’s article is about England only) the 5 year average (2015-2019) is 64.24% males. For 2020 the ratio is 63.53% males. I doubt the difference is statistically significant.

      The excess deaths were 6.38% more males and 9.70% more females than the average for the period over the previous 5 years.

      England accounts for 94.66% of the population of England & Wales.

      The really odd thing is that England is apparently different from the rest of the UK and the rest of Europe or the world. I don’t have access to BAME population stats for most of Europe but I know that England is 15.45% non-‘white’ compared with Scotland: 4.77%, Wales: 4.53% and NI: 2.04%. I have also heard that BAME people are more at risk from this bug. Is the increased representation of BAME people in the England population stats enough to explain this 15-44 year olds spike in deaths? If so, now ‘all’ we have to do is explain why BAME people are more at risk.

      Reply
      1. KJE

        I also wonder if any of these were child birth related. No antenatal care/classes because of lockdown? But I doubt there’s any point speculating as we’ll be told it’s all down to the virus whatever.

        Reply
      2. Harry de Boer

        BAME people have darker skin that British, make less vit D3 which is a huge determinant of covid-19 severity.

        Reply
        1. Simon C

          You are correct. Sadly, the media and the powers that be are pushing the inequality angle, inevitable given the social climate I suppose.

          Given how many bame doctors and nurses have died – neither a demographic you’d associate with social deprivation – they plainly need to widen the scope of their investigations.

          Reply
      3. Mike C

        One more thing about the stats: That spike of excess deaths for 15-44 year olds in England represents about 260 people. It’s statistically significant because the 5 year average is around 3,218 deaths for that age group over those 12 weeks.

        Reply
        1. colinbannon

          Im sure Malcolm would agree, there are plenty of vulnerable adults in their 40’s which might well explain this. My question would be, why not in other countries? Again we are being world beaters for all the wrong reasons.

          Reply
        2. Damien

          When you have an anomalous spike in data such as the deaths in the 15-44y group there must be a pretty significant change in epidemiological circumstances. There may be one possibility that might account for the jump. The spike started in week 9, more or less when the ‘lockdown’ was started (23 Mar). The people who were succumbing must have been infected on possibly 22 days previously – 4-6 days incubation then 14-16 days to death (ie the infection started at end the of February). (Prof Michael Levitt talks of 23 days) I speculate that during this time that some people across the world were looking for somewhere “safer” and made their way to the UK, London in particular. It is possible that some left the departure country already ill – with the view to seeking immediate medical care. I wonder if it would be the younger who would be travelling? Depending on the country from which they originated they might have lower D3 levels, even in the younger . . . which might modulate the expected demographic death rate profile for England. A big influx could form the foundation for an explanation for the 14-45y spike. A big influx would also explain why England and not the other parts of the UK had a dramatically higher deaths/million rate overall. To see if this idea has any legs one would have to analyse the air traffic into the country from the back end of February through March.

          Reply
        3. Tom Morgan

          Mike C: You point out some very intriguing features of the excess deaths in the England. Also Harry de Boer speculated about BAME and Vitamin D levels. As you point out the number of excess deaths amount to just 260 people. So I’m wondering about how many of the 260 are in the BAME population in England. Also in the rest of the UK. It would (have been?) be interesting to know about the Vit D levels involved in those excess deaths, and on average.
          Also the differences between Belgium and Belarus – could that be explained by different sized populations of folks from the mid-east, or Africa who don’t get enough Vit D? Given the reasonably small numbers involved in the excess deaths, it might not take a huge BAME-like population in Belgium, to skew the stats.
          I believe Belgium has a significant population of ‘BAME’, but I don’t have any idea what that type of population would be for Belarus, say.
          Just a few things to ponder …

          Reply
    2. Cheezilla

      Useful graph:

      Reply
  2. trishb53

    Could this non vulnerable younger group have been BAME and/or morbidly obese? (The vitamin D connection).
    Wondered, are there any stats available that give BAME statistics for a population to give any clues? Not sure if you could ever know on obesity re a population?

    Reply
    1. johnplatinumgoss

      The BAME fear factor may have no basis in fact and if there are definitely more BAME people dying from the virus it might well be overseas workers in the NHS who came here for a better life (nothing wrong in that) and now find themselves at the leading edge of contacts with COVID-19 sufferers,

      Reply
      1. Steve-R

        While what you say may well have some relevance, you cannot wish away the studies showing the relationship between D3 levels and Covid-19 severity in countries where there are few Caucasians.

        Reply
        1. Harry de Boer

          I’m scratching my head on this one. I always thought that the countries with few Caucasians had much more UV-B irradiation than those with many. Actually I thought the fact that Caucasians are white was because then they use UV-B more efficiently and can survive further from the equator.

          Reply
          1. Tom Welsh

            Harry, I think the point is that the first humans were black but could make sufficient Vitamin D from ultraviolet light because they lived in hot countries (originally just Africa). As some of their descendants moved into other regions where it was (a lot) colder, they had to evolve lighter skins or sicken and die of Vitamin D deficiency.

            I read recently that a person with dark black skin needs as much as 2 hours of exposure to hot sun to generate as much Vitamin D as a white person can in 20 minutes. (Incidentally, as they tan and get older even people with lily-white skin need longer than 20 minutes too).

  3. Jeff

    Yes, very strange about the young deaths in England.
    In Sweden with no lockdown there has no been NO deaths in people younger than 50 (out of 5,230)
    As far as I can tell from their statistics website –
    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
    The vast majority of mortality was in over 80 year olds.
    They should have just let the virus spread concentrating on protections for the elderly and ill (who are usually not working or very mobile and could be quarantined or similarly protected).
    With no general lockdown, unemployment, massive government debt and recession.
    It would have been over in probably 3 or 4 months and then the elderly and ill could breathe easier so much sooner, since the majority of the population would have acquired immunity and not be a possible threat to them any more.

    Reply
    1. markheller13

      This is truly a terrible idea…

      No one yet knows whether getting CV-19 confers immunity, and even if it does, for how long, so your plan has a very real risk of not working, and at the same time killing lots of people.

      It’s also naive and wrong to assume that no lockdown means no economic damage – try and imagine our country with millions of people suffering from CV-19, and the health service overwhelmed many times over.

      It’s also very easy to say ‘protect the vulnerable’, but in practice that isn’t possible – who would look after the old, the sick, the vulnerable if they are isolated?

      You should also read up about the damaging long-term and non-trivial health implications of the virus that a significant proportion of CV-19 sufferers are experiencing.

      Reply
      1. Jeff

        Lockdowns achieve nothing but massive economic damage and upheaval, with subsequent deaths caused by lower socio economic conditions for most.
        The virus spread is just temporarily delayed, and its rate of spread can easily be adequately controlled with economic simple sensible actions by people, the like of which are now being adopted in most countries.

        Reply
        1. markheller13

          I’m not arguing for a lockdown, I’m saying that letting the virus run unchecked through the population, as you suggested in your first post, is madness.

          You’re now arguing for something completely different – that we should take measures to control the virus as best we can – which I think is sensible. But still, saying the virus can be ‘easily controlled’ I think is mistaken, and a huge under-estimation of how hard it will be.

          Reply
          1. anglosvizzera

            As far as I recall, Dr Kendrick wasn’t saying to let the virus loose for everyone to be exposed to, I’m pretty sure he said that protecting the elderly and otherwise vulnerable would be a better strategy.

        2. Jeremy May

          ‘Sensible actions by people’……. this is where your strategy falls down I’m afraid. Just witness the lunatic behaviour at our seaside resorts. Wait till the 4th when the pubs open. You cannot trust people generally – they need to be told what to do and actively prohibited from doing anything stupid. Sad but true.

          Reply
          1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

            Jeremy, rest you well in your dictatorship.
            people are very capable of sensible decisions, but if they are persistently degraded by social conditionings, as corporate assets, so as to lose there own life support for a managed existence – then they will not have an active responsibility for themselves and each other.
            I was on my local beach yesterday and today with hundreds of families enjoying a day at the beach. The only lunacy is regulating against allowing such freedoms.
            There is something abhorrent in the self-righteous presumption to judge others unworthy. But no one who is sure they are right can recognise their own stupidity.

          2. AhNotepad

            Jeremy May, what lunatic behaviour? Why was the behaviour lunatic? (In your humble opinion). The lunatic behaviour is that of the government control freaks and their draconian house arrest followed by numerous twists and turns which could only serve to frighten and confuse most people. Now we have Matthew Hancock talking about closing beaches. Why doesn’t he go and live on his home planet and leave ours alone? The same nutty tactics were used in the US, There, one state would close beaches but allow people to walk in the parks, another would close parks and allow people to walk on beaches.

          3. Jeremy May

            Sure people are capable of making decisions. They do make them. Some people actually make decisions based on common decency. Unfortunately a significant minority make decisions to leave whole towns under mountains of filth, or force the closure of a nature reserve because of revolting, drunken, pack behaviour, they hurl rocks at the police in the name of protest. You speak of degredation through social conditioning and the population being used as corporate assets. Rubbish frankly. Limitations and warnings during these tough times are in place for everyone for a reason. Decisions are made by the authorities with (I believe) the best of intentions for the benefit of everyone. Just because you don’t agree doesn’t mean you can do what you want. Today’s me me me attitude means that restrictions need to be tougher than should be necessary, precisely because we can’t trust the significant minority to keep us safe. I and many others feel that, because some feel aggrieved at being socially conditioned they can do whatever they like, does not cut it. The very tone of Dr Kendricks article suggests that we just don’t know enough about this virus. People have had to make decisions based on advice and instinct. At every turn some group (media led) has called for the opposite. Recently we have had the hindsight brigade saying see, I told you they’d mess it up. Now people have been let off the leash they are behaving like animals. I’ll tell you this, I would rather put my grandchildren’s future in the hands of those currently in place as opposed to a mob, socially conditioned or not.

          4. peter downey

            Jeremy you encapsulate it wonderfully. The Puritans have taken over. This is your disneyland – Self flagellation and finger wagging. And woe betide anyone who has the temerity to introduce dilemmas, becasue dilemma is not something Puritans take kindly.
            Lunatic behaviour it was not. It was people saying ‘We’ve had enough’.
            Second wave or not, there will be great difficulty I think in getting people to lock down again as we have. And I predict that in years to come certain politicians will come out and say “We knew it was an overreaction, but it was a mess we didn’t know how to get out of’.

          5. KJE

            I think to be even moderately successful in politics these days you’d have to be a sociopath. I think I’s probably score quite high on that scale myself, but I have no desire to go into politics

      2. Mike C

        ‘No one yet knows whether getting CV-19 confers immunity, and even if it does, for how long,’

        True, we don’t know for sure but catching most bugs does give some immunity against a recurrence.

        ‘so your plan has a very real risk of not working, and at the same time killing lots of people.’

        Why would the plan kill more people than otherwise? Are you imagining that if fewer people catch the bug it will eventually just give up and go away? Only one bug has ever been eradicated as far as I’m aware: smallpox – and for that mankind developed a vaccine.

        Perhaps you want us to remained locked down *until* there’s a vaccine? Trouble is if catching the actual bug does not give immunity then a vaccine is unlikely to work.

        ‘It’s also very easy to say ‘protect the vulnerable’, but in practice that isn’t possible – who would look after the old, the sick, the vulnerable if they are isolated?’

        Ummm. Perhaps some of the fit and healthy who are not locked down?

        However, we mustn’t run away with the idea that reversing the lockdown now will fix everything. The damage has been done; the world economy has taken a terrible hit. Most countries trade with other countries and will take an economic hit if their trading partners suddenly stop buying and selling. In the developed world we will (somehow) afford to pay for the economic hit – but the people in the developing parts of the world do not have any buffer and losing their jobs due to the developed world’s *pause* will kill millions of them.

        Reply
        1. markheller13

          You’ve made a lot of incorrect assumptions about what I’m saying.

          I’m not arguing for prolonged lockdown – it’s a blunt tool with many harmful consequences.

          I’m not suggesting the bug will give up and go away – in the short term we have to hope that we find a vaccine and/or effective treatment. Failing that, we will need another solution, which will probably be a mix of different measures such as long-term changes to how we interact with others, effective TTI measures, etc.

          My points about protecting the vulnerable were in response to the proposal that we let everyone except the vulnerable catch COVID. In this situation, there are no fit and healthy people as everyone potentially has it.

          Reply
          1. Harry de Boer

            The majority of the people don’t ‘catch COVID’. The majority of people have an innate immune system that immediately rids the body of the virus. Unless they have been exposed to a viral load that’s too large for their innate immune system to cope with. In that case they have to get sick and let their aquired immune system deal with it, which ends in succes in a majority of cases. Especially in the people of working age, which means that the economy won’t be severely hit at all if covid-19 had been allowed to run its course.

            A clever thing to do would have been to prevent contaminate aerosols to accumulate in confined spaces with lots of people without facemasks. So close the pubs, no choirs, churches with face masks, no singing etc. etc. Outside infection rarely occurs because of the immediate dilution of the viral load into an acceptable one that can be dealt with by the innate immune system of most ‘fit and healthy’ people.

            There are a few facts that are misunderstood and on which policy should have been based:
            1. Outside infections rarely occur –> no 1.5 m, no face masks outside, or at own discretion.
            2. Inside infections take place through aerosols –> inside buildings or when together with non-family members wear face masks, maybe wash hands a bit more.
            3. Kids don’t get sick from covid-19 –> open the schools.
            4. Kids don’t transmit the virus, they are not a vector –> don’t panick when they come home.
            Only the teachers have to wear face masks to prevent them from infecting each other. Check teachers’ temperatures upon entry of the school. If too high, send them home, test.

          2. AhNotepad

            We have to hope people come to their senses and stop this unfounded faith that vaccines prevent diseases. This was the theory, and the claim, but where is the proof?

        2. AhNotepad

          Mike C, you wrote “Only one bug has ever been eradicated as far as I’m aware: smallpox – and for that mankind developed a vaccine.” This is a contentious statement, but I don’t intended that to sound harsh. As ever I would refer you to “Dissolving Illusions by Suzanne Humphries and Roman Bystrianyk. A section there deals with the smallpox history. I don’t think it is in the book, but Jenner was a fraud (does that remind anyone of modern pharma?). He wasn’t a medic, and bought his qualification from Aberdeen University for £15. He then used that to get another adulation from Oxford. The vaccine (pus) caused more deaths than if it hadn’t been used. The story has been on this series of blogs several times, but rather than repeat it, reading the book would be a better route for the information.

          Reply
          1. Mike C

            As I understood it Jenner did not invent the idea of inoculation with either smallpox or cowpox pus – but he did test whether cowpox inoculation had worked as hoped by following up with repeated inoculations with smallpox and which I have no doubt would have modern ethics boards in a rage. If he bought his medical qualification then that might help explain his cavalier attitude to his test subjects – who he should have thought of as patients. I will certainly read Dissolving Illusions – thank you for the recommendation.

            My comment was not intended to exalt Jenner but instead the determined effort in more modern times to stamp out smallpox so that these days the bug is only to be found in laboratories (until and unless somebody makes a mistake). We (mankind) had Polio on the ropes – but it looks like we’ve let it rally.

          2. janecnorman

            Interestingly, Leicester didn’t vaccinate its citizens during smallpox, but quarantined them instead. I think the very book AhNotepad mentions is the one that describes this. History repeating itself for Leicester, then.

          3. AhNotepad

            Leicester did vaccinate until the citizens revolted. I don’t know about the quarantine, but I suspect quarantine was for those infected, not lockdown for everybody. The present day rubbish the government peddles has nothing to do with infections, it is trying to screw people’s brains so they become compliant. The techniques have been known for years, if not decades, if not centuries. In the middle ages there was the inquisition and the Witch-Finder-General, today we have track and trace and Bill gates and Tony Fauci and others. Instead of the rack we have the ventilator. Nothing much changes.

          4. Sasha

            The story I heard about witch hunts in New England was that they initially started (at least partially) as docs trying to get midwives out of baby birthing business. Never double checked that story but that’s what I heard…

        3. Mike Wroe

          Whether catching the virus leads to immunity and for long immunity lasts remains unanswered. However why should anyone who has recovered from the virus fear catching it again? If an antibody test showed that I have had the virus I would be no more concerned about a recurrence than of catching a heavy cold.

          Reply
      3. AhNotepad

        Let’s deal with facts. There are not millions of people with covid 19 needing treatment, and the hospitals are not overwhelmed.

        Reply
        1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

          AhYes. But the lie is that millions of asymptomatic ‘infected’ people are a threat to world order, and so a new world order has to surveil, control and micromanage them.
          That we can also be tested for and found to be ‘infected with’ a host of other viruses and bacteria supposed to cause disease, or that those ‘tested’ for covid – also would have shown the genetic traces of other viruses – is not the intention of the crisis.

          Reply
      4. Harry de Boer

        I’m afraid both Sweden and Belarus prove you wrong. Sweden even admitted they should have taken better care in protecting the elderly, if anything.
        Every coronavirus infers immunity, that’s why they mutate like crazy, to get around this.
        Sweden has indeed much less economic damage.

        In Sweden the health service wasn’t overwhelmed at all.

        Who was looking after ‘the old, sick, vulnerable during their isolation in lock-down?

        To summarize, you infer a lot of fear, uncertainties and doubt (in the time Gates wasn’t yet trying to use the WHO to make us buy 7 or 14 BILLION of his vaccines we used the term FUD for this technique of attempts to dismiss otherwise very rational deliberations as ‘dangerous’), and show faulty reasoning in order to… Well, what is it exactly that you are trying to say?

        Reply
      5. Yolanda

        But we have always let a virus run its course, we have done so for hundreds of thousands of years. Why? Because you can ‘t stop a virus nor do you want to. Virusses play a very important part in human life, without the little buggers we’d die. Virusses have been on this earth for billions of years, we, the human race, are Johnny come latelies. Virusses are in us, on us, around us and part of us.

        Virusses are not the enemy, they merely invade our cells to replicate. They can only do so in living cells, so dead humans mean dead cells and thus non active virus.#Fail Virusses mutate and most mutate towards non killing as killing the host defeats the purpose.

        Not sure why you claim that you don’t get immunity after you have had covid19 because that is not true. At first they thought that some people got ill twice but later they found out that that was due to the fact that PCR tests are not that reliable so you could get a false positive test.

        Lockdowns have not worked, those whose immune system has no answer to covid19 will die once they get infected unless treated in time with either a huge dose of vitamin C or with the protocol used by dr Raoult for instance.

        And not only have lockdowns not worked, they have killed far more people than covid19, in third world countries millions are dying from starvation. In the UK, the Netherlands etc. many seriously ill patients have not been treated because the ICU beds need to remain empty for the millions of covid patients that so far have not shown up. It’s a funny ole world, innit?

        Cheerio, Yolsnda

        Reply
        1. AhNotepad

          Hi Yolanda, yes, it’s funny that there people still suggesting that allowing people to do normal things is claimed to be the same as them going out killing people. I have seen a youtube video with a policeman telling someone “go home and stop killing people”.

          Reply
          1. Yolanda

            Hi Notepaddy, Totally weird. That sort of thing has calmed down a bit in Dutchland. Went for a meal in a restaurant yesterday and all seemed normal, you know, the normal normal. Officially we still have to keep 1,5m apart but most don’t take a blind bit of notice of that preposterous rule.
            In the restaurant people were munching happily, waiters served your meal like you didn’t have the bubonic plague, people were smiling and relaxed. Can’t tell you how relieved I was to be back in our normal world instead of that nightmare we have been living these past 3 months.

            Tomorrow another big demonstration in the Hague to get rid of the 1,5m rule. The Dutch government tried to impose a new law that basically cancelled democratie. We are not there yet, but we are fighting to get our rights back and our normal world. They can stuff their new normal!

            I have read quite a bit about the situation in the UK, you still have a looong way to go before you are back to the normal normal. The situation in de US I find even more worrying with all those riots, killing and looting going on.

            Cheerio and keep safe, Yolanda

          2. AhNotepad

            when restaurants open in the Uk it looks like it will be far from normal. Specified times you can sit at a table (I bet you had no idea this cunning little virus carried a stopwatch). May have to give all sorts of personal information when you arrive. Never mind there are laws that are supposed to govern collection of data. This is probably for Hancock’s Health Service, “keep you locked down tracing system”. Collect names and numbers, then send texts to say you’ve been near someone with soething, sometime.

            Boris the Clown told everyone to get out and go to the beach. People went to the beach, so Hancock the Goon says he will shut the beaches. If people are allowed to go to the beach, you might have tought even a half-wit could take a guess that some might need the toilet during the day, but the toilets are kept shut.

            These specimens that constitute an apology for government should be charged with negligence. They haven’t a clue, about anything.

      6. Terry Wright

        Mark; it is clear you are on the side of the screechers; an honourable group indeed;

        “You should also read up “; my dear fellow; this is what the whole world has done; endlessly;

        “try and imagine our country with millions of people suffering from CV-19,”

        .. that is what this is all about Mark: the narrative that has been promulgated by the MSM and left-wing academia; imagine: fantasy; imagined; made-up; conjectured; modelled;screamed about; screeched about;

        “your plan has a very real risk of not working” .. what on earth are you wittering on about? Whose plan? What does it say?

        Reply
        1. markheller13

          Hi Terry, thanks for coming back to me.

          You seem to have jumped in with your own pre-formed opinions about what I think, and where it comes from, without reading the message trail carefully enough, or stopping to think for a second.

          Please re-read and you’ll see that I was responding to Jeff’s suggestion that we should protect the vulnerable, and let the virus pass through everyone else. It was Jeff who proposed that the vast majority of the UK (i.e. millions of people) would get COVID-19, not me – I was simply pointing out the folly of that proposal.

          And to answer your question ‘whose plan’, Jeff’s – as is obvious if you read the trail a little more carefully.

          Reply
      7. Lms2

        If what you say is true, i.e. contracting CV19 doesn’t necessarily confer immunity for very long, if at all, then vaccination would be pointless.

        Reply
  4. AhNotepad

    I doubt something like the truth will ever come out, as the data has not been, nor will ever be available. The misinformation that is available just because of the way the system has been handled with no interest in the facts, but to generate a political situation that causes suffering for most people. Why can’t I provide references for my assertions? The real data does not exist, and the only figures would then be mathematical models, and we know how good they are.

    Reply
  5. John

    That is a strange anomaly, but it covers 30 years in age difference, are there any figures to split it into smaller age ranges? I know that our local police force were warning people not to drive at very high speed on the almost empty motorways. They were clocking drivers at up to 150 mph. There were several serious collisions and not only on the motorway but on rural roads and also in and around Leicester, high speed runs through empty streets. This could go some way to explain why England is different from the rest of the U.K. but not the remaining countries.

    Reply
  6. axelle, naturally simple

    Nice one. Hopefully he will say something about it!

    It just started raining hard here.

    >

    Reply
  7. Ken Garoo

    A finer regional breakdown might offer clues. There are significant regional variations in the UK death rate during the lockdown – from ~50 per 100,000? in rural south west to ~850 in poor de-industrialised northern(*) urban areas. * – Ashford, Kent is an exception.

    The relentless fear-mongering from the media might have played a part. The young seem particularly susceptible to that. I know from personal contacts of attempted and actual suicides.

    Reply
    1. ShirleyKate

      Ken, do you mean Ashford Kent has had a higher death rate? Or a lower? It’s not poor, has never really been ‘industrial’ but is of course ‘urban’. I don’t have TV and hardly read the papers (too much controversy to digest!) so I don’t know about death rates anywhere. I live just down the road from Ashford, on the coast, and I would be interested to know.

      Reply
  8. Eileen Chapman

    Some other possibly significant differences between the two countries. Belarus is more than six times the size of Belgium 207000 sq km versus 30000 sq km. Belgium has the highest population density in Europe at 376 per sq km as opposed to Belarus with 40 per sq km!
    Belarus is an inland country whereas Belgium is a large port. The population of Belarus is 83% Belarusian, 8%Russian, 3%Polish, 1% Ukrainian and 3% Other. Belgium has a much more diverse ethnic makeup – can’t find figures for BAME but Muslims are predicted to make up 10% of the population by 2030.

    Reply
  9. markheller13

    Very strange… Is it possible that these excess deaths relate to medical and care workers, who have been exposed to much larger – potentially lethal – levels of the virus, due to the nature of their work, and the lack of adequate protection because of PPE shortages?

    I’m not sure that would explain why it is just the UK though, as I understand other countries like Italy were overwhelmed in a similar way…

    Reply
        1. Tish

          Dr Kendrick has suggested that the number of Covid deaths registered in this age group wasn’t large enough to form such a spike.

          Reply
          1. markheller13

            That’s true, assuming that causes of deaths are recorded accurately, which may or may not be the case.

            I don’t know what the explanation is, but if you look carefully at the relevant graphs, you can see that the shape and timing of the 15-44 mortality spike is pretty much identical to the spikes in all the older age groups, which suggests that the same factor(s) are at play.

    1. Terry Wright

      “Is it possible that these excess deaths relate to medical and care workers,”

      this is a myth: carefully promulgated; carefully nurtured and fostered; promoted; pushed; advocated but no evidence ie staff are NOT dying. I know beliefs win over facts .. but ………
      ___________________________

      “I understand other countries like Italy” .. no Mark; you got it wrong there too: it wasn’t “Italy”:

      it was Lombardy: 16% of population/68% of deaths (Sicily 8.3% of population, 0.1% of deaths)

      similarly folks generalise to Sweden; it is STOCKHOLM where deaths have been;

      Malmo (SW Sweden) faces Copenhagen; whose population was under house-arrest;

      Malmo had LOWER death rates than Copenhagen: please explain ……… it was Sweden, right?

      Reply
      1. markheller13

        Terry, last time I looked, Lombardy was in Italy, but thanks for trying to correct me.

        And your claim that no care or medical workers have died from COVID-19 is not just factually wrong, but it’s also deeply insulting to all those trying to care for and protect us.

        Reply
        1. Sasha

          I spoke today to an engineer who has a degree in mathematics. He asked a friend who is a nurse in Lombardy (and obviously has access to Italian language data) to compile it for him. According to her, in Lombardy the average age of death of Covid patient is 81. With most people having multiple co-morbidities.

          As far as people “who are trying to care for us”, I know three anesthesiologists. They are intubating Covid patients every day. I can’t speak for the 3rd MD but the first 2 are kind of amazed at what’s being said about Covid as it applies to general public. As is the mathematically trained engineer, by the way.

          Reply
  10. David Bailey

    Malcolm,

    Thank you very much for your latest thoughts!

    Coincidentally, just the other day I came across this article, which claims that COVID-19 does not really exist! I posted it with your previous blog entry. It seems superficially well argued and contains lots of references.

    Click to access CoronavirusPanic.pdf

    I thought I would re-post it here because it seems to suggest a possible – if radical – explanation of the curious inconsistencies you are describing.

    David Crowe’s explanation seems to resemble what Henry Bauer has been saying about AIDS for decades now (sadly HB seems to have given up posting on his website) – that it is another example of a virus that (he claims) has never been isolated. This means that the RNA that has presumably been used to create the COVID-19 PCR test may itself be human RNA – possibly expressed in particular medical circumstances – or may come from funguses or other pathogens.

    More generally, the whole scare may be an example of what can happen when Koch’s postulates are ignored.

    I know you had to deal with some pretty harrowing COVID-19 cases recently, but I wonder – is there any other pathogen that might have produced those symptoms but was never tested for?

    Reply
    1. Ian Roselman

      For many years Peter Duesberg denied that HIV caused AIDS, even before the virus was identified as something new. It is no longer relevant as we have very effective treatments based on anti-retroviral drugs. This paper strikes me as similar and equally unlikely to be helpful in dealing with the pandemic. There are clever people who still argue that quantum mechanics is an unnecessary branch of physics and that the theory of relativity is just that, a theory lacking proof. We should not assume that conventional explanations are always wrong, any more than that they are always right.

      Reply
      1. Terry Wright

        “It is no longer relevant as we have very effective treatments based on anti-retroviral drugs.”
        …… really? You do know there are no placebo-controlled trials in this field?
        “even before the virus was identified”; can you cite the evidence for that; that it has been identified? I am just curious; some would say this is still contentious! I have no personal stance to take: the test for this agent does not identify the agent I am told: it identifies antibodies instead. Those advocating for this virus seem to say they cannot isolate or identify it: it seemingly is very clever and hides; I admire it for its cunning.

        “We should not assume that conventional explanations are always wrong”; pray, who is doing that? The suggestion is that if someone asserts something, the onus should be on them to demonstrate their stance.

        Reply
  11. Jean Humphreys

    Thank you. It looks more and more likely that we will never know the truth. Too many things have been erased, or not recorded at all, and once the ledger is closed, there is no chance of knowing the things that should have been there but are not.

    Reply
  12. johnplatinumgoss

    There is something very strange going on and I am not sure of its purpose. However I do think it is about control. There has been no debate. To my mind the global elite is behind it. Proving that would be difficult, I have speculated on what the reasons might be. When people have questioned and seem to be right I have amended my findings.

    https://johnplatinumgoss.com/2020/06/22/never-again/

    Fresh air is good for fighting off viruses. As Belarus shows there seems to be no correlation between lockdown or no lockdown and the disparity in deaths. Something is going on and my philosophy from day one has been to treat Covid-19 like any other virus, not let the fear factor interfere with my life, while at the same time taking precautions when close to those in the risk groups.

    At my golf club there has not been a single individual known to have had COVID-19 let alone a death from it. In the three months since this started I have spoken to only one person who says she had it, and know of no others. Curiously when it started in China and MSM first created fear and panic she was worried about catching it and asked if I knew where she might get a face mask. I suggested it was nothing to worry about! I still think that. But people are worried. I’m worried too. I’m worried that the media, and those who own the media, have the power to indoctrinate the masses to such an extent.

    As people take to the beaches and celebrate their football victories the MSM is still putting out the same fear messages about second waves and so on. There may be a second wave but rarely, if ever, is a virus as potent second time round. It was not with MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) which is closely related to SARS-COV-2.

    Reply
      1. johnplatinumgoss

        The other thing ShirleyKate that we don’t know, at least I don’t know, is if the Spanish flu pandemic was the same virus for both outbreaks. Viruses could not be identified until the 1930s.

        Reply
        1. Frederica Huxley

          The books I have read on the 1918 pandemic have not intimated that there was more than one virus, and it has been identified from research on a number of corpses from around the world.

          Reply
      1. AhNotepad

        Long on words, short on evidence. This is the case for both sides as far as evidence goes, it is on the weak side. Which means there is no compelling reason to wear masks.

        Reply
        1. JDPatten

          Sides? SIDES??
          The virus does not care about sides. It’s human behavior that determines what happens – whatever “evidence” you care to deem of value.

          Reply
  13. Darby

    So we’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t, or in some countries not damned if we do or don’t !!
    Is alcoholl protective because i surely need a drink?

    Reply
    1. Steve-R

      Not if you use it like Boris uses industrial refrigerators.

      Savoured in moderation is fine though and will do less damage to your liver than sugary cakes and buns.

      Reply
    2. Yolanda

      According to the president of Belarus wodka and a sauna are very protective against covid19 and he seems to be right because the mortality rate is very low there. Cheers!

      Reply
      1. Sasha

        Sauna does offer lots of benefits, especially as it pertains to cardiovascular health. There are studies out of Finland on sauna use. I don’t have the links but Rhonda Patrick on FoundMyFitness probably does.

        Reply
          1. KJE

            Reference to the political situation in Belarus – protests and violence – nothing to do with viruses (unless the media says it is …)

          2. Steve B

            A winner who gets 80 per cent of the vote ?This man will anything to hold on to power just you wait and see

          3. Steve B

            I bet it’s confusing to you Putin lovers (platinum gross, tom belch etc}when the president of Belarus criticises Russia
            But they are going to be the best of pals now, one dictator to another You better believe it

  14. anglosvizzera

    So sad – as I also know of a few suicides that happened early on, and also of young people who are still very ‘stressed out’ about the whole thing.

    What might be to come is more deaths as a result of the severe recession and unemployment that is here now and will likely increase. All those young people who leave school or college with no job prospects, and all those young people with high living costs who are suddenly made redundant. Awful.

    Reply
    1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

      My children (late 30s) are acutely aware of the psychic atmospheric of fear and in each their own way seeking not to feed it – because fear mounting upon fear is a breakdown of sanity and family. One of them is tying NOT to know anything as an attempt to evade fear. The resort of limiting consciousness as escape from pain can take many routes – including a global monopolist takeover of all major functions.

      The ‘easiest’ route for many is to believe what they are told and do what they are told as a way of mitigating their fear behind the ‘authorities’ and ‘experts’ that interject masks, props and ritual observances as the new bubble. But only if you are willing to give up consciousness for systems management.

      Reply
      1. LMS2

        I read Lockdown Sceptics. It counters the hysteria pushed by the MSM.
        I’m not a complete sceptic, as I know of two people who’ve died with CV19: one was reasonably fit until a bout of bronchitis, severe enough to require hospitalization and IV antibiotics, which is where he contracted CV19. He died a couple of weeks later, aged 77 from organ failure, presumably caused by the inflammation and blood clots.
        The second died in hospital following surgery, aged 90, with heart failure, and also contracted CV19 whilst in the hospital. It’s a guess as to what actually caused his death.

        Reply
  15. Kevin Dineley

    Malcolm I was talking to a Slovakian man yesterday about this yesterday. He was suggesting that BCG vaccination could be a factor. Many eastern bloc countries did not stop it, so could the combined effect over ~40 years make a difference, particularly in that younger age bracket?. Are there numbers available? Regards Kevin

    On Fri, Jun 26, 2020 at 9:21 AM Dr. Malcolm Kendrick wrote:

    > Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: “26th June 2020 This article was first > published on RT.com This is so weird and inexplicable I can’t fathom it: > why did deaths in people aged 15-44 spike during lockdown, & only in > England? As a doctor, I occasionally get confronted with diffi” >

    Reply
    1. Gary Ogden

      Kevin Dineley: A few days ago, on the previous blog, I posted a link to an article suggesting that a mycobacterium related to the TB bacterium plays a role in the ‘rona, and that those countries who have consistently given the BCG vaccine have lower death rates. I’ll try to find it again and repost it.

      Reply
  16. Alanna Ratna

    Lack of sunshine and lack of fresh air might be part of the reason for spikes during lockdown and possibly an increase in carbohydrate intake.

    Reply
    1. Tom Welsh

      Many British people could hardly increase their carbohydrate intake any further. Thanks to the “EatBadly Plate”.

      Reply
      1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

        How can you keep an infection-based fear and control system running – unless you manage (help) people so as to weaken them – so as then to medicate them into ‘morbidities’ that can spawn novel viruses by which to restate and consolidate control?
        There is more to carb intolerance and obese malnutrition than quantity. The undermining of the ability to digest is an anti-bios agenda.
        When do we recognise we hate, fear, attack and deny our own life from a false frame of thinking?

        Reply
  17. Jillm

    What is the flu vaccine status? Covid appeared in the northern hemisphere after seasonal flu vaccination season. It appeared in the southern hemisphere before flu vaccines were ready.

    Reply
    1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

      It is already a known fact that flu vaccines increase other vectors of respiratory disease – including coronaviruses. I believe there are accounts of immune disregulation that can result from antibodies of the flu vaccine and the coronavirus ‘in the wild’. I have read that canine coronaviral matter is in (some?) flu vaccines, (as a result of being passaged through canine subjects or cells), and this could be a cause of cytokine storms etc.
      I have also read of the attempts to trial coronavirus vaccines, in otters – where all subjects showed excellent antibody response after vaccination, and all subjects died on exposure to corona in the wild. I think another trial on humans was not as catastrophic but criminal proceedings in the Philippines are ongoing.

      I suggest that if ‘globalism’ cannot achieve its takeover, then there will be a true Reset, because the systemic corruptions in medical and other sciences and professions are at breaking point.
      I also believe that such levels of control as are being implemented, can NOT work as a form of governance. It will kill the goose that lays the golden egg – though it thinks to switch to bio-tech and robotics. But it does not really ‘think’ so much as strategize evasion.

      Reply
      1. Sasha

        I wouldn’t hold my breath for a “reset”, not in medicine at least. One man’s corruption is another man’s paycheck.

        Reply
  18. John Stone

    Plainly there was additional mortality in England in the hospital service, in the care home service, among bus drivers for example. Because it’s a low mortality group it would not take a lot to create a bulge but it is just surprising this does not seem to happen anywhere else.

    Reply
      1. John Stone

        Mark

        I think there is evidence and what you’d expect – probably many reports, but why only England?

        Reply
    1. IMoz

      Extrapolating from your explanation: England is what should’ve happened, and all the other countries in the EuroMOMO dataset (i. e. way more than just the UK) are anomalies… Yup, that’s not it!

      Reply
  19. Shena McLelland

    Love your letters. I have read in several places including the Scottish Govt website that the annual flu jab makes you more susceptible to COVID complications. Keep writing please. Need your common sense and authority out there.

    Shena

    >

    Reply
    1. anglosvizzera

      I think what the Scottish government and others have said is that those people who are eligible for the annual flu vaccine are more susceptible to the virus, not as a result of the vaccine, but because their status makes them eligible for the flu vaccine.

      However, it may be true that the annual flu vaccine actually DOES make people more susceptible to the virus but that’s not really what they’re saying…

      Reply
      1. Anna M

        In the US everyone, including pregnant women and babies, are considered eligible for the flu vaccine. But I think that compliance is much higher in the elderly.

        Reply
        1. AhNotepad

          My daughter-in-law miscarried just after she had a flu jab. It is apparently a known risk, but she didn’t know at the time and the medic neglected to say.

          Compliance is higher in the elderly for reasons including, not wanting to cause a fuss, unquestioning faith in their doctor, not understanding the risks, and not understanding that the effectiveness (I presume indicated by antibodies) in the elderly is low.

          Reply
    2. Stuart

      Shena can you post a link to Scottish Govt that states this.Seems extraordinary and I would need to see this for myself before I believe it. Thanks

      Reply
      1. anglosvizzera

        I have had a look for this – but it only says that those who are eligible for the annual flu vaccine should take extra care, not that there is any particular risk having had the annual flu vaccine.

        “For those under 70, underlying health conditions refers to all those eligible for the flu vaccine.”

        https://www.gov.scot/news/people-advised-to-limit-social-contact/

        I’ve also seen the US military study that does appear to state that while the flu vaccine ‘protects’ from flu, it increases susceptibility to coronaviruses in general. But I don’t think that the Scottish Government is actually meaning that!

        Reply
          1. anglosvizzera

            I had already read that response in the BMJ by Alan Cunningham, but I doubt that the Scottish Parliament would be suggesting that as the reason for people ‘eligible’ for the flu vaccine to be extra careful. Certainly they haven’t actually worded it in that way, even if they did mean it.

            For the record, I don’t doubt that the flu vaccine makes people more susceptible, just that I don’t think the Scottish Parliament even knows about stuff like that!

          2. Sasha

            Anecdotally, it appears to be the case. There’s a whole movement of health care workers in the US fighting mandatory annual flu jabs because they are sick of getting sick after each jab. People are willing to loose jobs over this…

          3. Gary Ogden

            Sasha: Yes, even administrative workers in hospitals, such as my neighbor. In the case specifically of the influenza vaccine, it is both worthless and dangerous for some, and counterproductive for some. Influenza is not very transmissible from person to person, and it rarely kills, according to the CDC.

  20. Lynda Cooper

    I have feared all along that the figures were very unreliable. Yesterday my fears were confirmed. I was checking the local newspaper for news of new cases and deaths at local hospitals. They state the deaths so far at each hospital and in brackets the number of deaths for the day before (eg 220 overall (2 yesterday) ). I was surprised that one hospital had recorded that yesterday they had minus 1 deaths. A miracle had obviously occurred. If this continues and gathers pace there won’t have been a pandemic at all !

    Reply
    1. Jill

      NHS England publishes a daily download – this may be what you are referring to. I recognise the ‘2’ you are referring to – and yet you will hear something like ‘178’ on the BBC. What they are presenting as daily deaths on TV are not. On the day in question, the ‘2’ on the spreadsheet just shows that at this point in time, they know that 2 people died on that day. That number will increase and be retrospectively added to over time – as there is a lag in adding the deaths to whatever the system is that they use…however, the MSM are misleading us! Here’s an excerpt from an OffGuardian article which explains it better than I could:

      To illustrate this, let’s look at one day in detail: April 10th.
      The DHSC report released that day states that 980 people died of Covid19. This was covered in the press as the UK’s “deadliest Covid19 day”.
      The Telegraph’s headline announced: “UK death toll jumps 980 in 24 hours in biggest rise yet”.
      The Daily Mail reported: “Britain records Europe’s highest single-day death toll: Number of victims jumps by 980”
      Sky News went with: “980 tops Spain and Italy’s highest daily number of deaths, which were 961 and 919 respectively.”
      But, at the time the report was released, the previous 24 hours had seen just 117 “Covid19 related deaths” according to NHS England, with a further possible 90 coming from Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, for a maximum possible total of 204.
      The other 776 people included in the report had died at seemingly random points between March 5th and April 8th.
      The reported “980 deaths in one day” were, in reality, spread over five weeks.
      Who were the 980 added to the Covid19 death figures on April 10th? Why was this apparently random sample of people, whose deaths were many weeks apart, selected for inclusion as “daily deaths” on the same day?
      We don’t know. No explanation is given, no rationale supplied.
      What we DO know is that, despite what government graphs claim, they didn’t all die on the same day.

      https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/23/why-you-cant-trust-the-uks-daily-covid19-updates/

      Reply
  21. Yolanda

    Malcolm, that Belgium seems to have such a high death rate is, at least in part, due to the fact that they recorded pretty much every death as covid19. In contrast, in my country The Netherlands, only those who had tested positief for covid19 and died are counted as covid19 deaths. In carehomes across the country 2700 elderly people have died. Most were not tested and therefor not counted as covid19 deaths. The tests that are used are PCR tests that are not that reliable, to put it mildly. Virus viability tests, to see if the detected sars cov 2 bits are actually still active, thus infectious, have not been done. Testing in Dutchland has only recently , as of June the virst, become available to the general public. The number of people who test positive has remained steady for weeks now and could be explained by the number of false positives from the test. It seems covid19 has left the building.

    All those young people dying in England only, is indeed a puzzle, a very worrying one. What the heck was going on there?

    TO ALL: in the Netherlands more and more people are resisting the lockdown, there are a lot of demonstrations going on, the Dutch government is taken to court by one organisation after another. The same is happening in Belgium, Germany, France etc. There is still a lot of censureship, articles and vids disappear with sickening regularity from the internet and a lot of disinformation is spread by MSM. In my country the MSM is slowly waking up to what is really going on and the government has suddenly ( after 1 big eye opening demonstration in The Hague and 1 day before a courtcase) relaxed some more covid rules altho the 1.5m rule still holds.
    In England you now have the 1m rule whereas in Wales it is still 2 meters. Apparently covid knows the difference between England and Wales and acts accordingly. Whatever. I sincerely hope more and more people wake up to the real crisis caused by the idiotic lockdowns world wide. How are things going in hour neck of the woods gentle readers?

    Cheerio, Yolanda

    Reply
  22. Izzat Bibi

    Greetings Dr Malcolm,

    Sorry to get to the point, I cannot fathom you comparing Belarus 🇧🇾 data with western democratic nation that does not control its data. Very much I question the credibility of Belarus. Forgive me if am wrong, but I trust my readings, educated awareness and finally common sense.

    Thanks

    Sent from my iPhone

    Reply
    1. peter downey

      I think, Izzat, the point was to be careful about questioning figures that don’t fit in with one’s point of view.
      It may be the case that Belarus is not to be trusted. But one thing they have been playing football for quite a while with fans in attendance. As far as I know they have had no deaths from this. And I do think that had there been our UK media would have let us know.
      A UK media by the way that has for 3 months been minding Sweden’s business. Making comparisons with Norway, Denmark and Sweden; that seems to fit their agenda. But not comparing with the UK. Why’s that?

      Reply
    2. IMoz

      This is nonsense, you can’t simply choose not to trust data. Here’s an example: Russian figures for deaths might seem “low” compared to the UK ones, so “let’s not trust them;” but then you look at Israel, and discover Russian and Israeli CFR is virtually identical (one is higher, and you woulnd’t have guessed it: Russian—14.26% vs 14.01%), so do we not trust Israeli data either? What about other countries where CFR is on par or less? You can’t just eliminate data on some dubious grounds simply because the data is inconvenient.

      Reply
      1. Tom Welsh

        What a beautiful reductio ad absurdum, Imoz! If an argument leads to the conclusion that you can’t trust something coming from Israel, that argument is obviously false!

        Reply
        1. IMoz

          Just as well nobody checks maths, I was a factor of 10 out: CFR for Russia was 1.426% and Israel 1.401% :p

          Reductio ad absurdum is a great tool to show how fallacios an argument is, but Israel was the first that looked like they had similar ratio looking down two columns in WHO’s SitRep for the 25th (WHO don’t compute CFR so you have to skim two columns). Icelandic CFR was 0.547%, for example, while the Singaporian was a mere 0.061%. FIY, UK’s CFR was 14.04%.

          For some strange reason there are two arguments that are on collision course in a lot of people’s minds here: every single one but our government lies; and then, our government lies about the true picture! Of course, we know what the threshold for a death to be counted a “COVID-19 death” here in the UK is. The situation is actually quite perverse: instead of asking why so many are dying here, the criticism is directed at the countries where there are “not enough” deaths…

          Reply
    3. Binra (@onemindinmany)

      Gosh you are so trusting. Are you living in a western democracy?
      Such as remains is being stamped out.

      Belarus’ president called our covid epidemic ‘psychosis’.
      It of often so that the truth is told by one who can easily be ridiculed – but then is it truth we seek to recognise or reinforcement for our narrative identity?

      Reply
      1. Tom Welsh

        “Are you living in a western democracy?”

        Gosh, that’s a challenging question! For what values of “Western” and “democracy”?

        Reply
        1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

          My comment was put apart from the comment it responded to – relating to the inference “Belarus must be lying whereas western democracies can be trusted to give reliable data”. (!)

          And so my question above is challenging that posters presumption.

          This is the post I responded to (I capitalised the relevant point)

          /SNIP
          Izzat Bibi
          Sorry to get to the point, I cannot fathom you comparing Belarus 🇧🇾 data with WESTERN DEMOCRATIC NATION THAT DOES NOT CONTROL ITS DATA. Very much I question the credibility of Belarus.
          /SNIP

          full post on this page at
          https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/06/26/covid-the-strange-the-inexplicable-and-the-weird/#comment-167143

          Reply
  23. Sue Richardson

    Fascinating post. I hope you carry on ‘Sherlocking’ till you work it out. don’t know if this is any help to your statistics but I live on the Isle of Man. Population about 80,000. We closed our borders on the 27th March. We had 24 deaths from COVID, and 20 of those were connected to one particular care home. There have been no active cases since 20th May, and all restrictions here have been lifted, apart from the borders. The other deaths were people with underlying conditions. It is possible that they were all from the same part of our island.

    Reply
  24. Tom Welsh

    “They do say that the first casualty of war is truth. However, the enemy, in this case, does not much care what anyone says, so there is no point in lying to it.

    “All it wants to do is move from one host to another and propagate itself. Why does it wish to do this? We don’t really know, it just does. COVID -19 doesn’t do interviews, but we can guess that its mission is to completely dominate the world”.

    I fear that Dr Kendrick has (breifly) surrendered to the temptation of purple prose. For a start, as I am sure we all know, a virus doesn’t want to do anything. Writers find it hard to resist attributing human motivations to diseases, and up to a point that is OK – but when a doctor or scientist is writing about the expected behaviour of a virus, I think precise language is desirable.

    So, to get things straight, a virus doesn’t have a mind, motives, purpose, or even a single brain cell. It doesn’t have a single cell. It’s just a scrap of DNA (or, in this case, RNA) wrapped up in some proteins that get it into cells and then “implement” the viral RNA by making different proteins or by incorporating the DNA version of the viral DNA into the cell’s own DNA.

    By George, I’m quickly beginning to see the attractions of anthropomorphising the virus! Writing about it in strictly correct language is both tedious and very clumsy.

    In the second place, Dr Kendrick concedes that the pandemic is over, at least for now. Whether there is a “second wave” remains to be seen, but there is no special reason that there should be.

    “By the end of May, everything had fallen back to normal. Which means the COVID mortality spike lasted ten weeks, from start to finish. Overall mortality rates are now lower than normal”.

    Doesn’t sound like something whose “mission is to completely dominate the world”. Especially as it doesn’t (and can’t have) a mission, and it certainly cannot have any idea of “domination”.

    On the contrary, it seems quite likely that it is destined to “dominate the world” in a very quiet, virusy way – by doing what other brands of coronavirus have done, and colonise most of the people in the world permanently without doing most of them any harm.

    Reply
    1. markheller13

      I might have missed your point, but I think you are both saying the same thing…

      For the virus to dominate, it needs two things: to be very infectious, and to keep its hosts alive, so that it can be spread to more hosts. As the virus mutates, those mutations that most favour these two characteristics will naturally dominate, since they will be spread more widely than other mutations.

      Reply
      1. Terry Wright

        Hi Mark; that is emotive language:

        “For the virus to dominate, ”

        instead, think of the virus as just wanting to get along; sort of like a protection racket: call it “Mr 10%”: it just wants its cut; like crocuses that come up in spring; create starch to get through the rest of the year, respiratory viruses are profoundly seasonal; they promulgate (briefly) late winter and are not evident for the summer; Hope-Simpson talked of DIPs: defective interfering particles that a viral wave produces: so as the active are produced; many are “duds” so the wave rapidly looses steam and settles down: William Farr described all this in the 19th Century https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-farrs-way-out-of-the-pandemic/ ….. bell-curves …… way up and way down ……..

        Reply
      2. Binra (@onemindinmany)

        There you go! – ascribing your motives to a ‘virus’.
        ‘dominate’. ‘needs to do’ and on and on.
        You are assigning life to a virus, and applying evolutionary theory to your posited entity as if it can DO anything.

        You are running the virus in your mind – as an attribute of motives you don’t openly accept.

        But if you slightly edited it you could be saying

        “For the virus to dominate our mind, it needs two beliefs: to be very infectious, and to keep its protection racket in business, so that it can be spread to more hosts. As we mutate the virus by shifting definitions, diagnoses, testing parameters and treatments, those mutations that most favour these two characteristics will naturally dominate, since we will spread them more widely than other mutations.

        It is my observation that there are all sorts of clues that once seen, cannot be unseen. But virus hysteria has been worked over and again as cover story for polluting toxicity, and reinforced as a basis for a ‘gold rush’ that restructures the funding, of research and career opportunity.
        This is being leveraged for restructuring our global society from a (corrupted and collapsed) economy, to a systemic credit control system – in which you are no longer an individual, but an asset – with an infection status, ‘immunisation’ (sic) status, and carbon guilt-debit status – with further disincentives to be coded in, such that indivuality cant even imagine let alone look up to see the Boot on its face.

        However – all of which is a derivative of guilt given power over life.
        Watch and pray – might be expanded to ‘watch your thoughts, perceptions and reactions – that nothing is given permission to run deceit in your name’.

        But once someone is reactive within a story, they rarely pause the action to question their investment. It runs its course – not unlike an infection.

        We know code on computer operating systems can be injected under various ruses by which to be run as executable commands by the host computer – which can include sending messages of similar ploy to other devices. Looking at virus as code is more interesting, because we CAN know that code of itself does nothing. The system uses coding, and the intent to rig or corrupt the system to hidden functional agenda, depends on a programmer and a user. I notice this not only between people – as manipulative behaviours, but within our own mind, as masking over and from ourselves so as to ‘survive’ under coercive demands founded upon dreaded or terrifying conflict from which the mind recoils.

        Reply
  25. abamji

    There’s no doubt the figure are unreliable, but equally I have no doubt that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is very infectious and Covid-19 is very nasty. Disentangling all the known risk factors for a bad outcome is a mammoth task. Obesity; underlying pulmonary disease; heart disease; age; ethnic origin are the main ones. Until we can see any differences in local populations we will not explain the England spike, though I would speculate that population density is a factor.
    There are more large conurbations in England than in the other countries; whether there are more ethnic minority residents in England proportionally I don’t know. Of course the number of deaths will be higher the more people actually get the virus.

    I have said for several weeks that an excess mortality in March/April is likely to be balanced by a lower mortality later in the year because the has been what I call a “cull of the susceptible”. But the right treatment stops people from dying. Early in the disease it may be the virus that kills, but later it is the cytokine storm – antivirals may, as with other viruses, work somewhat, but treatment for cytokine storms has been established for decades. It just seems to be taking an age for folk to get to grips with the concept, and even then they await the results of trials before making recommendations.

    If people don’t die from Covid-19 then it really doesn’t matter who gets it, or at what age. It’s just another infection (or rather an infection the consequences of which are treatable).

    Reply
    1. Tom Welsh

      “I have no doubt that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is very infectious and Covid-19 is very nasty”.

      All very true and sensible, abamji. But consider that the common cold is very infectious, as is the common flu. And flu, at least, can also be very nasty. We read a lot of horror stories about the dreadful symptoms and experiences some patients have – and I admit to being impressed and scared by them just like anyone else. But flu and TB kill far more people every year than Covid-19. How can they do that if they are not also “very nasty”? Do they hug their victims to death?

      Also, I remember very vividly Dr Kendrick’s description of how some patients got hypoxia and just passed out and died very quickly. As someone most of whose life is over, and who needs to think very soberly about death and how it will come, I must say that sounds as close to ideal as I can imagine. Compared to cancer, TB, diabetes or even a heart attack I will take that death gladly. (Only, as St Augustine comically prayed, not yet if God so wills).

      It is true that “Disentangling all the known risk factors for a bad outcome is a mammoth task”. But luckily we don’t have to. Instead, we can study the reported deaths to date: nearly half a million should provide splendid grist to the researcher’s mill. What were their ages? (We have already heard quite a lot about that); what were there pre-existing morbidities; where were they taken ill, and where did they die; what was their diet, how much sleep and exercise did they get, and what was their general state of health?… and so on.

      It seems an eminnently desirable and very inexpensive and easy task to undertake. It’s just a pity that governments and other organisations have taken such pains to hide, forge, obscure and otherwise make the data unavailable.

      I wonder why they would do that?

      Reply
  26. KJE

    Didn’t some Chinese youths die from exercising while wearing masks? I didn’t see mask-wearing in younger people where I live, but perhaps in some other English areas, youngsters were trying to make up for the lack of gyms and football practice by running or cycling in masks.

    Reply
  27. andy

    Covid-19 might have mutated with epicentre in England. Do people eat anything strange there?

    Or perhaps cause of excess deaths is mental stress leading to reckless and strange behaviour. Could this virus cause neurological damage, stiff upper lip syndrome, Brexit syndrome? Pure speculation until actual cause of death is established.

    Reply
        1. LA_Bob

          Hi, andy,

          Scary article indeed on the stroke issue. I’m a bit suspicious that the victims are really “free of pre-existing conditions”, but I certainly don’t know one way or the other. I do believe diagnosis of metabolic dysfunction is flawed. It is usually not suspected in most people until there is a bad fasting blood glucose result, and this is a lagging indicator. And insulin levels are not measured in a standard health screening (a la the Kraft protocol), so I’m not sure we know well what is really going on with some of these younger people.

          One more COVID head-scratcher, I suppose.

          Reply
        2. Darby

          Andy
          Stiff upper, stress,depression,cvd problems “might be more prevalent in England for historical reasons”
          What nonsense Please show any proof this might be true

          Reply
          1. andy

            Hi Darby: re high z scores for all age groups in England peaking after week 11, not just the15-44 group. I live in Toronto, Canada and not familiar with life in England. The common feature is the high stress pandemic. Why did England react so badly?

            How stressed were they before Covid-19?
            https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/news/stressed-nation-74-uk-overwhelmed-or-unable-cope-some-point-past-year
            Stressed nation: 74% of UK ‘overwhelmed or unable to cope’ at some point in the past year

            https://www.covermagazine.co.uk/news/4007988/90-uk-workers-suffer-excessive-stress
            Almost 90% of UK workers suffer ‘excessive’ stress

            https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/britain-suffering-enormous-stress-over-brexit-psychologist-warns-1.3892975

            What happened in week 11 that increased stress level?
            WHO announces Covid pandemic disaster, everyone on high alert.

            What happened in week 13 that was the last straw?
            March 23, lockdown of pubs and isolation, end of normal.

            Week 14, deaths peaked, and then returned to normal.
            It wasn’t the Covid, one has to learn how to cope with stress.

          2. Darby

            Hello Andy.
            This might be a load of cobblers but is there a connection between right wing states eg US,UK Brazil possibly Russia, and high prevalence of Covid19
            Just wondering

          3. andy

            Hi Darby: re right wing states and high prevalence of Covid19
            The body counts are real, what is unreal is the media coverage. If Joe is the next president my guess is that the pandemic would be quickly over in that country. This will be proof that the virus has political ambitions.

          4. Gary Ogden

            andy: If this is the case, and no doubt it is, we should see a spike in CVD events and other stress-related outcomes. Perhaps too early to know about the ‘Rona effect, but what are the long-term trends in CVD in the UK?

          5. Darby

            Hello Andy.
            http://www.heart.org
            31st January 2019
            121 million adult Americans (48%) have CVD
            Healthsurvey.hscic.gov.uk 14 % of English have CVD
            These figures don’t sound believable do they?

          6. AhNotepad

            Darby, language comprehension I accept is difficult for some, but did you not notice the link to the reference andy had included in the post?

      1. KJE

        I think there is an equal amount of boiling in Scotland and Wales, but perhaps deep-fried Mars bars are protective to the Scots.

        Reply
      2. ShirleyKate

        No Janet, we don’t boil much of our food. In the 1940s, yes, we lived on boiled spuds and cabbage. Now it’s more yer KFC, in common with the rest of the world. And deep-fried Mars Bars as an occasional treat.

        Reply
      3. Sasha

        It is weird, isn’t it? The population of Britain and Ireland seems to be a gastronomical outlier. Every other old culture on Earth seems to have developed a varied cuisine but not the British (or Irish for that matter). What is that all about? Is there some scarcity of resources?

        Reply
      4. Darby

        When we end up with no trade deal with the EU we will have to go cap in hand to the US for a deal.
        Then we will be swamped with cheap food. Genetically modified, chlorinated, full of growth hormones and antibiotics
        No amount of boiling will make that stuff edible

        Reply
    1. Darby

      andy
      “do people eat anything strange there” ?
      black pudding? piclets ? Ungenetically modified anything ?

      Reply
  28. Pauline Greenhalgh

    I would take a guess that in England in particular parents are not as in control of their children as in other countries and that the teenager/young adults groups continued to leave the house and meet up with their friends and continued to date and flirt, kiss and cuddle …. cos despite my age I do remember being a teenager and being grounded for any reason – even a life saving one, was a catastrophe – the world was ending if I couldn;t go out!!!

    Reply
    1. ShirleyKate

      Hi Pauline. Do young people ‘date and flirt, kiss and cuddle …’? They do. On my walks round the local rec I’ve seen a few doing just that. In my own case it was over the white cliffs on a Sunday afternoon, in long-ago days when our boyfriends were all doing ‘national service’. And long may that continue. It will at least ensure the continuation of the race when the ‘virus’ has finished it’s work on my generation.

      Reply
  29. Tom Welsh

    Wikipedia, that infallible fount of correct knowledge, informs us that:
    ========================================================
    Four human coronaviruses produce symptoms that are generally mild:

    Human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43), β-CoV
    Human coronavirus HKU1 (HCoV-HKU1), β-CoV
    Human coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E), α-CoV
    Human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63), α-CoV

    Three human coronaviruses produce symptoms that are potentially severe:

    Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV), β-CoV
    Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), β-CoV
    Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), β-CoV
    ========================================================

    The four mild ones are among those viruses that cause the common cold – not usually dreaded as a mass killer. (But note that the common cold viruses are very widely established in populations worldwide). “The common cold is the most frequent infectious disease in humans. The average adult gets two to three colds a year, while the average child may get six to eight. Infections occur more commonly during the winter. These infections have existed throughout human history”. (Wikipedia).

    Wikipedia doesn’t say how many people are infected with common cold coronaviruses worldwide, but you can bet the number is far, far higher than the nearly 10 million “cases” of Covid-19 that have been officially reported. That doesn’t mean the common cold is an immense tsunami of doom about to break over our heads and kill us all. It means that the common cold is very infectious, so that almost everyone gets it, yet it does very little harm. In other words, it is symbiotic with humans. (There is even some evidence that the common cold and the antibodies whose production it stimulates protect us against more serious diseases, even including some cancers).

    Turning to the “potentially severe” coronaviruses:

    MERS – “Over 2,000 cases of MERS have been reported by 2017 with about 600 deaths, so the case fatality rate is <30%". (Wikipedia)
    SARS – "SARS was [note the past tense – TW] a relatively rare disease; at the end of the epidemic in June 2003, the incidence was 8,422 cases with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 11%". (Wikipedia)
    Covid-19 – As of now, there have been 9,736,692 officially attributed "cases" and 492,379 officially attributed "deaths". 5,269,741 are admitted to have "recovered", although some countries such the Netherlands and the UK apparently do not allow the possibility of recovery, as that field in the table is mysteriously marked "N/A" (presumably "not applicable"). Given what we have heard about the unreliability of tests, testing procedures and those doing the testing (for example, the mass kits sent out by the US CDC which were all primed to show positive whatever the patient's condition), the figures for both "cases" and "deaths" should be taken with a large pinch of salt. Moreover, any infectious disease yields time curves that go up, then down. Covid-19, uniquely, in some countries at least, yields curves that go up, then down a little, then "sideways" indefinitely. Almost as if someone were making sure the pandemic can never be declared over.

    Contrast those Covid-19 "deaths" (slightly under half a million) with the 60 million plus who die every year worldwide. 18 million or so from cardiovascular diseases; about 10 million from cancer; and over 6 million from respiratory diseases. Skipping a few, about 1.5 million die of diabetes, over 1 million apiece from TB and AIDS, about 800,000 from suicide, over 600,000 from malaria, and over 400,000 from homicide.

    Reply
    1. markheller13

      Two issues with your analysis: one, you’re comparing COVID deaths, which typically cover a few months, with annualised death rates. Secondly, we’ve had this many deaths, DESPITE having introduced incredibly drastic prevention measures.

      I’m also not sure what your point is – if it’s that CV-19 is less lethal than certain other causes of death, that’s possibly true.

      If you’re arguing that we shouldn’t worry about it, or that it’s all a conspiracy, that’s surely wrong.

      Reply
      1. Yolanda

        Indeed we have introduced incredibly drastic measures in many countries across the world but it did not even slightly hinder the virus. Simply look at all the not flattened curves from all the countries that did or only slightly or not at all impose drastic measures and the difference is …… zilch, nada, nothing. Virusses come and go and for some strange reason the human race is still here, the planet is actually teeming with us. Hmmm

        Cheerio, Yolanda

        Reply
      2. AhNotepad

        Hand sanitising, masks, staying indoors and antisocial distancing, making people queue outside shops to buy food, etc etc, are control measures, for people, not for diseases of the corona type

        Reply
      3. Terry Wright

        Gosh Mark; you have been busy

        “COVID deaths, which typically cover a few months,”

        …. that is grossly misleading: the peak of the UK deaths was quickly up and down; a matter of weeks; we can argue over that;

        …. “with annualised death rates” ……. what you find Mark; by looking at the long-term; is that a bad flu winter will cause more deaths; and a mild winter the next year will result in fewer deaths; another mild winter, and more vulnerable folks are tettering; to be taken away by the next bad flu; or crona; or whatever strikes. Long-term data does matter: excess deaths will be the only real measure we are left with, it seems.

        Reply
  30. peter downey

    “did they die of COVID, yes or no? Probably, possibly? Doctors in the UK have been advised to write yes”
    Doc, who by, the government?

    Reply
    1. Yolanda

      The WHO actually, they have written a loooong protocol about who died from covid19 and who did not. To give you one hilarious exemple: a person who had a motorcycle accident, has been tested positive for covid19 and who dies 2 days after having been admitted to hospital is not considered a covid19 death, but if s/he dies after 3 days then s/he was killed by covid19.
      Yup, this is of the sense that is none. The chap wot owns this blog has written about this subject eloquently until slightly blue in the face, bless him.

      Cheerio, Yolanda

      Reply
  31. Tish

    “…..we need to find out.”

    Yes!
    (and it would be good if the media were encouraged to look into it. They are good at talking and writing of the purely economic aspects but could look more into the misery.)

    Reply
  32. Tom Welsh

    Oh yes; there is one more question I often ask myself but haven’t seen much publicised.

    How many people do each of know personally who have sickened or died of Covid-19?

    Speaking for myself, that would be zero.

    If very few of us know, or know of anyone who suffered from the virus, that too might be quite interesting.

    Remember the old meme about “six degrees of separation” – otherwise known as “The Kevin Bacon game”? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Degrees_of_Kevin_Bacon That suggests that, if the pandemic is as awful as we are being told, many of us should have a close connection who has felt its touch.

    Reply
    1. emma k

      Zero.
      It only appears to hit political figures, celebrities and those who seek fame.
      Strange disease that!

      Reply
      1. Darby

        emma k half a million dead around the world
        how many of them are “political figures, celebrities and those who seek fame” ?

        Reply
        1. emma k

          Well let’s see.
          Those who claim coronavirus are the attention seekers who shout , ” coronavirus!! ‘
          Those who died in care homes………………….victims of poor health care and the common cold.

          Reply
    2. anglosvizzera

      I found out last week that my husband’s old boss, who now works in our small Somerset town, was in hospital for 12 weeks with Covid-19 (he made a short video to thank the hospital staff.)

      He is now MD at a factory making bits for railways. Apparently there were a lot of people infected there and the place was deep-cleaned. We only ever heard rumours that there was ‘coronavirus’ in our town, but nothing confirmed and my husband had assumed it was one of the other staff that had contracted it.

      We haven’t been in touch with him but know that he had returned from Bulgaria where he has a holiday place just before all hell broke loose in the UK (eg lockdown etc) so he must have become ill soon after that.

      Btw, we don’t have 5G here in our town either.

      Reply
    3. Yolanda

      Zero. In Dutchland the count is officially 6080 covid deaths or something, but if you substract all the peeps who were very old and had at least one co morbidity then we are left with 70 to 80 deaths from covid19 alone. There is 17,3 million of us so let’s panic and do something drastic like, o I dunno, wreck health care, our communities, the economy and what have you.

      Cheerio from the wreck that was formerly known as The Netherlands, Yolanda

      Reply
    4. Marilyn

      one family member sickened and recovered, four friends sickened and recovered, a close friend of a family member died . . . It’s out there.

      Reply
      1. Jeremy May

        Isn’t it peculiar that this post has been down-rated twice? Have you reason to believe Marilyn is npt telling the truth? Or perhaps you just don’t like it? I know people who have had the virus and recovered, also a friend of a friend who has died from it.

        Reply
      2. Fergus Glencross

        My sister a GP caught it 5 weeks ago. Tested positive still fatigued. One colleague ok now. One friends mother died.

        Reply
    5. ShirleyKate

      Yes Tom, tragically I do know someone. A neighbour aged 57, mother of a handicapped young man whose only support she was, went to hospital with a gall bladder problem, caught the bug and died. And i know one other one other, very old person.

      Reply
    6. Yvonne Lashford

      Interesting point. I know of one guy – in America [I am in Australia]. He was morbidly obese when I knew him twenty years ago so I am assuming he was still in that condition and aged about sixty – obesity and everything that goes with it seems to be the number one risk factor from what I can see.

      Reply
      1. Jean Humphreys

        Three cases. Grandson – 8. Daughter – 41. Grandaughter – 10. Just after the lockdown started.
        Eas Anglia, No worse than a nasty cold. Just different. There has been talk of a fatal case in the main village. Rural South Lincolnshire.

        Reply
        1. KJE

          So why do you think it wasn’t a cold, given the unreliability of rt-PRC test? If the media hadn’t been trumpeting about Coronavirus, would you have thought it wasn’t a cold?

          Reply
      2. Peggy Sue

        Zero (thank goodness) – and so far, no one I know has known anybody personally either. Lots of “my someone’s someone’s cousins neighbour” stories though.

        Reply
        1. KJE

          I know someone who had a bit of a cold with a slight evening cough in March and was convinced it was the virus.I still think it was a cold. Otherwise zero.

          Reply
        2. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

          I know two people personally, and thirty six patients. Oh, any my daughter tested positive. Only symptom – loss of smell. She was working on a COVID positive ward, which is why she got the test.

          Reply
          1. Gary Ogden

            In the Spring of 2019 my daughter got the heebie-jeebies, a fairly nasty bout for a few days, and lost her sense of smell. Maybe the ‘Rona was here last year, too?

      3. LA_Bob

        One person, a neighbor, here in the Los Angeles area, who had a bad flu in early February. She couldn’t get tested at the time but read enough about the symptoms to strongly suspect she had it. Case confirmed later as she was positive for antibodies. During “recovery” she also lost her sense of smell.

        Reply
    7. chris c

      In our town and surroundings there have allegedly been EIGHT cases. All survived and only one (health worker) was hospitalised). One girl in the supermarket had to self-isolate but wasn’t tested. In the other shops none. I’ve read of many places having no cases let alone deaths among supermarket/shop workers who have been customer-facing throughout. Sadly (or should I say SADly) there are a number of severely obese young girls and in contrast many slim fit healthy old folks. Nationally I wonder if that could have been a factor in the 15 – 44 deaths.

      What we DID have was a suspiciously covid-like cold/cough/flu type thing between October and February, mostly around December/January when I also caught it – I don;t normally catch things because I still have an immune system but this one got me, and far more people than were ever identified with covid. I’ve read the same in other areas. It looks like we have been protected.

      |In some past winters there were literally more ambulances than buses going up and down the street. Nothing like that this year, and we have some pretty elderly folks around.

      Reply
      1. Sasha

        Something similar happened to me. I normally don’t catch anything and if I do, it’s a couple of days of snifles, that’s it. This January I had a month of the worst dry cough and it just kept going and going. Then the upper lobe and later the lower lobe of my left lung started hurting. They say your lungs can’t hurt so maybe it was pleura, I don’t know. I later started to cough up green phlegm. It continued for a month until a friend treated me with acupuncture and Chinese herbs. It was very unusual, I never had symptoms like this before, at least not the ones I remember.

        Reply
        1. janecnorman

          It’s interesting, Sasha, that your instinct should have been to stay at home till you felt better and then when you didn’t feel better, to try acupuncture and Chinese herbs. Most people with symptoms like yours that lasted a month (!!) would have gone to hospital where, amid the panic and the fear of black death, they would have been made to lie in bed and take their medicine and possibly end up on a ventilator.

          Reply
          1. Sasha

            Jane: if a shark rips off my head, they can take me to a hospital. In most other cases, I think Traditional Chinese medicine and similar approaches are a much better option.

          2. Sasha

            Well, if a shark rips off my head, they won’t need to take me to a hospital, I assume

  33. Martin Back

    Do we know if the rise in deaths follows a rise in infections, in which case one might suspect a social cause like attendance at rallies or protests; or if they are the result of a lowered resistance to the virus, in which case one might suspect something used mainly by younger people such as a bad batch of vaping oil?

    Reply
      1. Martin Back

        Assuming the deaths were due to Covid-19, and it is spread by airborne droplets, I was trying to think of something used predominantly by the 15-44 age group that affected the airways.

        Reply
        1. Darby

          Martin
          Amphetamines, heroin cocaine etc
          I don’t know anybody who has the virus, probably because us middle aged stick to booze

          Reply
        2. andy

          Hi Martin: re deaths in 15-44 age group.
          “Deaths in this age group are most commonly attributable to cardiovascular disease; accidents; and suicide, poisoning, and the sequelae of drug and alcohol misuse.”
          Increase in all cause mortality above normal expected numbers probably due to an increase in all above categories precipitated by shock of lockdown.
          By assuming nosocomial covid infection all the excess deaths could easily be attributed to Covid-19.

          Reply
  34. TP

    The death rate differences could be related to installation of 5G in certain areas. Apparently, in China which has thousands of 5G installations had the worst cases of coronavirus in the areas highly saturated with 5G and then the symptoms got milder the further out of the areas you went. Also, related to the young in the UK. WIFI also is a factor in reducing immunity and predisposing to illness. They won’t give up their phones and WIFI so we are going to see more casualties of this. Wales had the worst cases in the south where there is 5G in Cardiff. The masts are right next to the stadium they set up as a field hospital!!

    Reply
    1. Darby

      Yeah right 5g is to blame
      The lizard kings of Atlantis are taking over the world. They own all the the companies who supply 5g
      The lizards are the people who control us They are shape changers Geddit ? just ask david yuck (or whatever his name is)

      Reply
  35. emma k

    Covid’s a giant hoax anyway so to expect rhyme or reason is pretty naive.
    How come after thousands of BLM supporters……………….many of them supposedly more vulnerable to ‘the disease’………………..congregated and flouted recommended distancing, we haven’t had a ‘spike’ in numbers ?
    How people on here can’t see it’s all nonsense is beyond me.

    Reply
    1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

      When ‘political ‘expedience trumps scientific veracity – any agenda that pushes the global Crash is fastracked, and then the next day Europa is back at war with Ocaeana (Orwell ref). But most of us are effectively immune anyway.

      But while you made a point – the risk of transmission outside is limited to the nocebo effect.
      Studies on transmission haven’t conclusively proven it – excepting to find samples of virus on surfaces or in droplets or aerosols. Not everyone gets pregnant after sex. A lot of things have to line up to ‘catch a baby’.

      The cognitive dissonance is disturbing – perhaps one of the most disturbing things in the whole business. Are we living on parallel planet Earth’s now? Is there a ‘sorting’ going on?

      The invested belief in the ‘hoax’ is very real. If you strongly but wrongly believed I was trying to murder your children – you would be murderous toward me. And in fact I have met such hatred from some who align with Bill Gates in seeing those who choose not to vaccinate as baby killers – and a threat to the lives of others. Bill sells the belief in ‘immunisations’ without scientific or legal accountability.

      Reply
      1. Gary Ogden

        Darby: Indeed, the families of those who have suffered from this and for whom they are grieving deserve our kindness and respect; nevertheless, the media and government narrative of this is perfect nonsense. The response has been completely botched. I have long thought those in Washington. D.C. to be nincompoops, but from what I see from the UK government, they seem like rocket scientists by comparison. We haven’t a pandemic, but what is a perfectly normal annual event: an infectious disease which takes those in poor metabolic health mainly in old age. The main differences here are demographic: almost completely sparing children and young adults, and presentation: As far as I know the pathology of neither colds nor influenza is primarily vascular, as this seems to be. Certainly a significant number of early cases were killed by improper treatment. But far and away the worst consequences of the government response has been to instill fear of the invisible and each other in the population and to seriously disrupt crucial social relationships. This will long haunt us. Here in California the authorities are planning to reopen the schools in the fall as prison camps. Horrifying is much too dainty a term for this.

        Reply
    2. Anna M

      Emma,
      And yet just two days after Trump had his rally they reported a spike in cases. What an amazing virus.

      Reply
  36. Mr Chris

    Thank you for that Malcolm. Figures are difficult, for example some reactions to the U.K. figures that I have seen, is that the Brits are the only honest ones. The Belgium figures are difficult to understand, on the site of the scientific agency that collects them, one notes that 50% approximately were in Care homes and that of these, only 23% had been actually tested are being infected with COVID 19. The discrepancies between countries of similar profiles can be very large. Unfortunately the explanations one hears from low death countries, are usually smug complacencies.

    Reply
  37. toddhoff

    Maybe toxic mold, some other environmental trigger, or family dynamics? We think of home as safe, but like most everything else it’s often trying to kill us.

    Reply
  38. Chad S

    Since I deal with a lot of data as my job, the first question that popped to mind was whether the data is actually correct or was there a processing error in loading it into the database?

    Reply
    1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

      Yes, while refusing data we do not like is an error, running errors as truth is an active ignorance. So I make use of brackets (like this) to hold anything that I do not fully accept or give credence to – but leave it as a place-holder – amidst probabilities and potentials.
      The more the figures can be inflated, the more a new treatment can be shown to ‘work’, when the parameters are tightened. I saw that this was done with polio. In the media frenzy of the outbreak – almost anything possible was assigned to polio, that after the vaccinations were introduced, was reassigned to other disease diagnosis – in the developed nations at least.

      Globalism rolls out different versions in different regions as part of testing and researching refinements to the system – and as well as to play off different regions against each other.
      At the top ‘insider’ level, Banks and Corporate monopolists have no boundaries – and make a world in their own image. They have done so covertly but are now out in the open – but for many, still hidden in plain sight while giving the knee to the virus that must be obeyed.

      Reply
  39. Harry de Boer

    Regarding Belarus you might have missed a little, but I think hugely important, detail:
    https://eng.belta.by/society/view/belarus-to-receive-potential-effective-drug-for-covid-19-treatment-130102-2020/
    From Prof Dr Didier Raoult’s website https://mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19 we can see 2 groups of people: those treated with hydroxychloroquine + azithromycine (I believe he later added Zinc to that cocktail), and those not treated with ‘the cocktail’.
    CFR in the non-treated group was 163/4921, in the treated group 18/3342. The untreated group had a (63/18)*(3342/4921) = 6.15 times higher mortality.
    That leaves a factor of ‘only’ 4 for further explanation.
    Maybe the health care for the untreated group in Marseille was much better than in Belarus?

    Another factor could be the timing of the lockdown. At the time of the lockdown a considerable amount of people had already been infected albeit maybe still symptomless and from the Diamond Princess we’ve seen that in a lock-down situation about 25% of the people involved get infected. So what happens if you lock down a society with infected members? You confine families of, say 5 persons of which 1 is infected and then infect 25% of the rest. What do you get? A doubling of the cases. Had those people been out the whole day except for the infected person, then as soon as the infected family member would become symptomatic, once in the house they would have taken measures to not get infected, probably sleep in a separate room and the time they passed in an atmosphere with virus contaminated aerosols would have been quite limited, i.e. the viral load wouldn’t have overwhelmed their innate immune system and free floating vitamin D molecules and much less infections would have occurred.
    Dr Maria van Kerkhove, lead scientist of the WHO, has clearly and on the record stated that from epidemiological contributions of member states with meticulous contact tracing and tracking it showed that non-symptomatic viral transmission is extremely rare.
    So maybe from lock-down vs no lock-down we can estimate another factor of 2, and the remaining factor 2 could be from other confounding factors, as for instance vitamin D status of the population. One could expect people from a poorer country to be outside during lunch time more than those in a *cough* highly developed country as Belgium.
    Obesity in Belarus (24%) is almost the same, albeit a bit higher, as in Belgium (22%).
    Less air pollution –> more UV-B perhaps?

    It is clear that Belarus’ president isn’t really in collusion with the WHO’s murderous attempts to stop hydroxychloroquine from being accepted as a life saving medicine (if cocktailed in time, i.e. NOT in hospitalized patients, there it’s too late). Belgium on the other hand has banned the use of hydroxychloroquine based on the fraudulent and retracted paper in the Lancet, formerly known as reputable medical journal. https://nypost.com/2020/05/27/france-italy-belgium-act-to-stop-use-of-hydroxychloroquine/ I wouldn’t be surprised if Belgium, like what happened in New York City, would have trumped up the number of covid-19 related deaths. That could be another contribution to the factor.

    Reply
    1. Terry Wright

      if one is able to mention again: how does HO-CQ.. hydroxychloroquine work?

      Well, it DAMPENS down the adaptive immune system: so fewer cytokines and less production of antibody: yes indeed, you read that right.

      Its use in malaria: its first use: it dampened down signs and symptoms of illness it seems: fevers, rigors, shivering, pain, cough ……… were these just cytokine manifestations, and did HO-CQ always “work” just by being an immune suppressant; dampening cytokines; and it never affected the malaria parasite?

      Curious that our assumption is everyone needs antibodies to be SAFE: yet, with HO-CQ the production of cytokines and antibodies is reduced: Uh?

      Reply
    1. IMoz

      The hump is from wk 12 till wk 18, and if it were covid-19 related, you’d subtract the incubation time (typical 3–5 days, if I recall correctly), then time between onset of symptoms till hospitalisation, and then time between hospitalisation to death (the latter two are four each (mean), according to the Italian Institute of Health). So you’d need to subtract 11–13 days (or even longer if you go with the whole 14 day incubation period nonse) from Wk 12 and Wk 18 to get to the point of infection, and that lands you somewhere around Wk 10–Wk 16 for point of infection, or March 2–8 till April 13–19, if my mental maths is correct. So unlikely it’s the pubs.

      Reply
  40. Zer0Point Strategies

    RE Belarus – England difference. When I moved to Florida, my first MD had recently himself moved from the mountains of Tennessee. He advised me not to drink the local water which was full of calcium because of the local aquifer. He said that was one reason the locals had so many different calcification issues. Drink mountain waster instead, much more magnesium leads to a healthier lifestyle. Are local environmental differences enough to be a catalyst for some of the variability? RIce grown in the southeast US is high in arsenic because the soil was poisoned during the cotton-growing days, but not rice grown in California If people don’t get proper blood work when they are alive what’s the likelihood they will get it once they are dead. How will we ever know what their status was?

    Reply
  41. Doug from Canada

    fentanyl.

    A user cut off from opioid supply due to lockdowns turns to an unlicensed source, consumes in the privacy of their home and overdoses and dies because no one else is around to help.

    England could be a hub for traffickers whom are cut off from the distribution network to the rest of the UK due to lockdowns thus offers discounts to move product locally, after all the government isn’t offsetting their loss of income and they still have bills to pay.

    My friend just lost his 23 year old step daughter in her own bedroom, in his own house, from this evil stuff.

    Reply
    1. Gary Ogden

      Doug fro m Canada: Fentanyl: manufactured in China and trafficked to the U.S. through Mexico. The toxicology report on George Floyd, the Minneapolis man who died in police custody, showed he had three times the lethal dose in his system. His death, by what appeared to be the actions of the police, was used by the political Left to excuse rioting, vandalism, and destruction in numerous cities. As if the ‘Rona wasn’t enough.

      Reply
      1. Darby

        Gary Ogden
        What are you saying?
        That George Floyd was high on drugs so it was okay for cops to kill him?

        Reply
        1. Sasha

          I think what Gary is saying that if the guy was high on fentanyl, it might have more than contributed to his respiratory distress. Fentanyl is a very potent opioid.

          Reply
          1. Gary Ogden

            Sasha: My point, as I replied to Doug in Canada, is that the toxicology report implies that it was fentanyl which was the cause of death. He was clearly in distress before he got the knee on the neck. I think we should entertain the possibility that the police, while they may have contributed to his death, were not the main cause of it. Open minds, people. We already know we can’t trust the mainstream media. As tragic as George Floyd’s death was for his family and friends, it is shameless the way media and political Left have used it for entirely partisan political purposes. Shameless.

          2. Sasha

            Gary: I agree. I am in Philadelphia now and could write about what was going on here as far as looting but I am not sure if it would violate Dr Kendrick’s moratorium on the topic.

          3. Darby

            Gary Ogden and Sasha
            God Almighty! you Americans are unbelievable Your police are absolute brutes and you excuse everything they do.

        2. Anna M

          Darby,

          You don’t even live here and you say our police are absolute brutes. And why do you believe this? Why because you heard it somewhere. And what is the result of millions of people believing this lie? We are moving forward toward a totalitarian revolt in which our protection – the police – will be neutered. But then, oh then, we will have something in place and they will indeed be brutes, as they always are in totalitarian regimes.

          And, oh yes, removal of police has been done before in revolutions. It’s a necessary step, as is control of the media.

          Reply
          1. Darby

            Anna M
            I didn’t hear it somewhere. I saw it on a video. But of course anything you or Trump don’t believe is fake news

  42. Steve-R

    Just checked out https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality and it looks like England has far greater excess deaths in all age groups above age 15 than the other regions of the UK, and not just in the 15-44 age group.
    Still anomalous, if the Y-axis is % and not absolute numbers!, but we don’t need to consider the 15-44 range differently from the other ranges apart from 0-15.

    Reply
  43. Tom Welsh

    Doug from Canada – if the user you mention dies from a Fentanyl overdose, and tests positive for Covid-19… guess what goes on the death certificate.

    Or even if he had been coughing a bit.

    Reply
  44. andy

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    In week 11 there were 275 deaths in 15 to 44 age group, in week 15 there were 332 deaths. The numbers are for England and Wales combined. The spike amounted to 57 additional deaths, no reason to be alarmed.

    EuroMOMO data for 15 to 44 age group England only
    Z-score week 11 = 2.65
    Z-score week 15 = 8.81
    What information does Z-score provide in this example?

    Reply
    1. IMoz

      z-score is a statistical measure of how many standard deviations current value is from the statistical mean. Calculated as: ([current value] – [mean value]) / [standard deviation]

      Typically, +/- 1 standard deviation is “normal” variability of data, +/- 3 “tolerable” (if you can explain it away) and anything over +/- 3 is an “anomaly” in the dataset. In the case of EuroMOMO, they deemed anything over +4 standard deviations as “substantial increase.”

      Reply
  45. Frederica Huxley

    Interestingly, Dr Fauci has just stated that in some states the majority of recently infected people are young adults.
    Huff post, 26/06
    “With growing evidence that young people are some of the primary spreaders of COVID-19, the country’s top public health experts pleaded with them to adhere to safety protocols.

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, the infectious disease expert advising the Trump administration on its coronavirus response, and Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, both issued similar warnings at Friday’s coronavirus task force briefing.

    “The overwhelming majority now of people getting infected are young people, likely the people that you see in the clips in the paper or out in crowds enjoying themselves,” Fauci said, noting that he, too, remembers feeling “invulnerable” when he was young. But he warned, “if you get infected, you will infect someone else, who clearly will infect someone else.”

    “Ultimately, you will infect someone who’s vulnerable,” Fauci continued, emphasizing that many young people are asymptomatic after the virus infects them. “That may be somebody’s grandmother or grandfather, uncle who’s on chemotherapy and who’s on radiation or chemotherapy, or a child who has leukemia.”

    The spread of the coronavirus among young people is especially evident in states that are experiencing major surges in new cases. In Arizona, for one, people ages 20-44 account for nearly half of all cases, and in Florida, the median age of someone testing positive for COVID-19 dropped from 65 in March to 35. The phenomenon is prevalent across much of the South, where many governors speedily reopened their economies at the urging of President Donald Trump.”

    Reply
    1. Gary Ogden

      Frederica Huxley: The number of cases simply reflects the number of tests. Are these people sick? If they were Fauci would trumpet it from the treetops. We know that RT-PCR is unreliable as a diagnostic tool. It is not binary. The determination of positive or negative is entirely arbitrary, based upon the number of cycles run. You can take anything Anthony Fauci says with a grain of salt. He is part of the official narrative, the narrative of control.

      Reply
    2. Terry Wright

      Fauci will be 80 on 24th Dec 2020; happy birthday Tony and maybe time to retire then? After all, everyone over the age of 70 is meant to hide under their beds and wimper: only common sense.

      Redfield (and Dr Birx) were employees of the US Army in 1992; and were court-martialled over false claims re an AIDDSS vaccine; it was part of a bigger investigation into that virus. All was stopped in 1994, when the Senate became republican, it seems; Redfield and Birx then rose and rose, but perhaps did not become rosier and rosier.

      Reply
    3. Tom Welsh

      It sounds as if Dr Fauci and the mainstream media are trying hard to confuse the separate issues of being infected with the virus and being sick.

      He says explicitly that anyone who is infected may give the virus to a vulnerable person who may then die.

      But that is what always happens with all infectious diseases. In the end, everyone who is susceptible gets infected. Most fight off the virus, while a few get ill and a small fraction of those die.

      In the last analysis the only way any of us escape death from a virus is through the good offices of our immune system. No amount of snake-oil sales talk can hide the fact that all the nostrums and pills and vaccines in the world do little but try to encourage the immune system.

      Or is Dr Fauci trying to usher in a new dispensation in which, while bacteria and viruses roam the world, no one gets sick – ever – because they have all been vaccinated against everything?

      Then nobody would ever die.

      Reply
      1. Gary Ogden

        Tom Welsh: Fauci has a massive conflict of interest in having close ties with both Moderna (a failing biotech revived with $468 billion greenback dollars, borrowing massively from our children and grandchildren ad infinitum) and Bill Gates, for the mRNA vaccine, which couldn’t possibly do anyone any good, except for the stockholders. Anthony Fauci simply can’t be trusted, any more than Bill Gates can.

        Reply
    4. Terry Wright

      “the majority of recently infected people are”

      ……… this is just doing tests …….. for the sake of ……… keeping the hysterics going …… earning money for the test manufacturers …… for the sake of …….. doing tests ……… for the sake of … doing tests …….. for the sake of doing tests ……..

      Reply
      1. Bill In Oz

        I am perplexed. For months I have been unable to post at all. I tried again on Saturday .And simply teid a test as a way of seeing if it would work. And my comment did not appear. So I did a second comment with simply “test”. And again it vanished into the ether. So I gave up.. Yet both of those tests are now. I fully expect that this will not show up either..And maybe later appear ? ? Is WordPress playing silly buggers with me ?
        As for testing for Corona 19, yes I agree it is needed as otherwise we are all operating in the dark. Is the PCR test fully accurate ? No. But this is a new disease and the testing technology is gradually getting better. Just as it did for HIV in the 1980’s . I remember when nobody was able to find the AIDS virus but never mind test for it is a person.

        Reply
          1. Sasha

            Bill’s comments appeared in my mailbox, both of them. I don’t know if they made it to the general feed.

        1. Steve-R

          Acquired Immune Deficiency SYNDROME – not a virus.
          The Human Immunodeficiency Virus gradually destroys the ability to mount immune responses to any disease or pathogen already in the host or contracted subsequently.
          Both the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the HIV lentiviruses are detected using a tool (rtPCR) designed for research not testing for disease presence which, depending on the number of cycles can detect something out of practically nothing. In the early days of HIV testing, if you wanted a positive diagnosis you went to the US and if you wanted a negative diagnosis you went to certain African countries – the former using more cycles of DNA amplification than the latter.
          The only certain identification of the presence of any virus is ‘isolation’ and ‘replication’ of the complete virus, not amplification of selected ‘bits’ of the viral RNA that may not even be unique to SARS-CoV-2, but this is a slow and expensive process that will not be widely available.
          Quite how much of this rigorous identification is taking place I would quite like to know as it would show how much evolution of the virus is taking place, if any, and could explain the variation in symptom severity in patients with, apparently, similar health status.

          Reply
          1. Craig E

            Hi Steve-R I am really interested in this. There seems to be a lot of confusion as to whether the virus has in fact been purified (and I’m gathering from what I read it hasn’t). So that would mean the current RT PCR test for COVID amplifies selected ‘bits’ of the viral RNA? I read David Crowe’s analysis and it was compelling reading. Here is Australia I suspect there are currently problems with a number of ‘false positives’ given some of those who’ve tested positive are asymptomatic and contact tracing has been unable to determine that the person has been in contact with someone infected. Given the consequences of false positives and false negatives (either making people self isolate and their contacts, or not picking up that someone has the virus) it seems to me that it’s a big deal that these tests for Covid are accurate. Not convinced they are. The current spike in Victoria could be the result of false positives as the authorities are testing ‘entire suburbs’ (or at least trying to). I wonder how many of the current spike are asymptomatic….

  46. Jillm

    From The Australian newspaper. Doubts over accuracy of Covid test. Football star Conor McKenna’s results went from negative, to a low-level irregularity, to positive and back to negative in six days.

    Reply
    1. Terry Wright

      Are we surprised JillM? We place such stores on these things ………

      there is nothing to compare it against;

      ie typically, a more commonly used; or easier to administer test;

      …….is first compared to a more rigorous test; that might be more expensive or cumbersome to do; … once a “gold standard” is established, from this “more accurate” test

      …. the simpler test may be generally used; but for the multiple PCR tests used for crona, different in every country, there never was an initial test. No-one has seen the virus under EM; no-one has grown it; no-one has grown it in cell cultures; “they seek him, they seek him there, he is the dedicated follower of ..” If folks looks at the David Crow article that David Bailey has posted, he goes through the various flaws of the PCR business; everyone believes them as though they were true ……

      Reply
  47. AhNotepad

    This is so weird and inexplicable I can’t fathom it: why did deaths in people aged 15-44 spike during lockdown, & only in England?

    I wonder why. In the US there were states which had very low mortality, yet in others there was a high mortality, and age didn’t seem to make any difference. Young or old, the patients died. Could it have been something to do with the treatment and not the diseases? https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/06/27/elmhurst-hospital-coronavirus.aspx

    Reply
    1. Dr. John H

      Ventilators kill near 100% of COVID patients, compared to hydroxychloroquine plus zinc, or the MATH+ Protocol which both have near 100% success rates. If patients were properly treated, there would be very few deaths.

      Reply
      1. James DownUnder

        Dr John, – such Heresy ! – Burn him at the stake. My local hospital *rejected* considering MARIK for sepsis, consequently I spent 4 days in a medical coma. – A couple of days less in Intensive Care / without ventilation, would have been appreciated !
        I suspect the presence of ‘ascorbic acid / Vit C’ tipped the scales against…

        Reply
  48. colinbannon

    My experience is that many young people are stressed, unfit, indoors and eating some of the worst food ever known to mankind. Their health is poor way before they are troubled by degenerative disease which comes to them prematurely yet later in life. So perhaps the answer is sad spike is simple and offers big lessons. COVID like flu hits the vulnerable, many young people are vulnerable too. We are bottom of the OECD in terms of the well being of our children, COVID is likely to be magnifying the consequences of this. With climate change looming, species being lost and Agribusiness working hard to generate more pandemics, it is clear, collectively if not individually, that we behave as if we hate our children.

    Reply
  49. Susan

    It is very easy to miss what is staring us in the face. Factors such as the timing of the lockdown relative to the degree to which the virus has already escaped into the community, ability/willingness to close borders (both externally and internally) and/ore to impose effective quarantine measures, population density…
    Layered with a plethora of social/cultural and other factors. We are dealing with complex systems and interactions on a global scale. Not surprising to find a few outliers here and there.

    Reply
  50. dearieme

    Back to the original question: why, specifically, England?

    Could it be related to the headline in this morning’s paper?

    “Exclusive: Half of UK’s imported Covid-19 infections are from Pakistan
    Experts warn that the Government needed to concentrate its resources on screening individuals from ‘high risk’ countries”

    Reply
    1. Gary Ogden

      dearieme: Do these immigrants primarily settle in England, as opposed to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland? What is the rate of latent TB in immigrants from TB-endemic countries? What is the rate of latent TB in those who have succumbed to the ‘Rona?

      Reply
  51. Shaleen

    Could differences in covid cases and deaths in different countries be related to each countries vaccines, outdoor door, past exposures to other viruses, health life styles such food, nutrition, sleep, exercise, immunity strength??

    Reply
    1. Gary Ogden

      Shaleen: Yes, plus exposure to environmental toxins, population density, air quality, strength of social cohesion, and more.

      Reply
  52. Steve-R

    Reports in today’s news of detection of the SARS-CoV-2 in sewage collected and frozen in March 2019 in Barcelona, while from a paper that is yet to be peer reviewed, is interesting.
    A close relative living in England was severely ill with an unspecified respiratory virus in March 2019 and on recovery was unwell and inexplicably losing weight, eventually being diagnosed (on endoscope examination) with destruction of the cilia in the small intestine – auto-immune coeliac disease. She has been searching for answers as to why this happened and is convinced that the unspecified virus she caught last year had many symptoms typical of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
    Is it likely that the virus she caught last March was a forerunner – advance guard as it were – of the more highly infectious SARS-CoV-2. I should note that both myself and spouse suffered from an unusual, but mild, respiratory viral infection at the same time last year and the same infection again this January/February (as did my close relative – despite our living Wales 250miles from my relative – but more severely).
    Has anyone heard of similar experiences?

    Reply
  53. ned long

    This doesn’t address your specific question, but I would love to know what you, Dr. Kendrick, (and anybody else) makes of the following paper by Denis Rancourt:

    All-cause mortality during COVID-19: No plague and a likely signature of mass homicide by government response

    Easy to find online and downloadable

    Reply
    1. Tish

      I found this very interesting Ned. Thank you. I tried to say this yesterday but it didn’t get listed. (I had included a link to a video about the paper. None of the 7 states that did not have a lockdown got the Covid spike the others got.)

      Reply
  54. Ria Lloyd

    You also need to take into account the density of a country. Belgium is 10x denser than Belarus.
    On higher proportion of 20-40 year olds dying during lockdown: that is no surprise to me at all. This is the age group which is most likely to have been breaking lockdown rules. A much higher proportion in this age group than any other age groups have not been adhering to social distancing rules.

    Reply
    1. KJE

      But where’s the evidence that anti-social distancing makes any difference to anything? Especially if you’ve not been near anyone infected. I’d say it was the top end of that age group – say 30-44 – who paid most attention to running away from others. And why wouldn’t it be exactly the same in Scotland and Wales? If it did make a difference you surely see a spike in deaths in shop assistants and people running takeaways which have stayed open throughout, ans who came into contact with a lot more people just before lockdown. Has that happened? I don’t know and I doubt anyone does. It’s also the age group – esp the lower end – who are more likely to commit suicide or drink excessively. So perhaps they died from depression after losing their jobs, or from excess alcohol (no pubs to chuck them out when they’d had enough), or even running or cycling with a mask on. We’ll probably never know.

      Reply
      1. Steve-R

        Pubs don’t chuck people out when they have had enough, from a medical point of view they shouldn’t be letting most customers in in the first place. They only chuck them out when they, the publicans, have had enough of the customers.

        Reply
        1. KJE

          Round here the pubs chuck people out when they start behaving like prats – which is usually when they’ve had slightly more than enough. In most cases, that’s the same as the landlord or bar person having had enough of them. Of course, that was before. I suspect most people now will just go and get pissed on the beach or in the park rather than book online or sign a form – far too much hassle. Which is, I suspect, what’s happening right now in that age group.

          Reply
  55. Gary Ogden

    Doug from Canada: Not at all. It is never right for anyone to kill another human except in self defense. The implication of the toxicology findings is that it was fentanyl which killed him. Three times the lethal dose, and this also explains his erratic behavior. Besides his death, what is horrifying about this is the way politicians and the media have spun this politically to encourage and excuse the looting and property destruction which have followed. Not all of the businesses which have been destroyed are rich corporate-owned establishments. BLM may not be involved in the thuggery, but it is nothing more than a partisan political activist organization. Plenty of blacks in the U.S. wish to have nothing to do with them. It is partisan politics which sucks, which is dividing us, who have mostly shared values about governance and how to treat one another.

    Reply
      1. AhNotepad

        Darby, Of course it was, you know that for an unquestionable fact. After all it comes under “Answers that can’t be questioned”. Keep taking the tablets, and can I recommend a Rona vaccine for you? Maybe you would like to volunteer, and be safe.

        Reply
        1. Darby

          It’s awful how black people in the US are treated especially in the southern states.
          They are human too
          I know your going to tell me that everybody is equal and that you really care but do you really give a shit? I doubt it

          Reply
          1. Gary Ogden

            It bears saying that reality is much more complicated than it appears from afar. It would be presumptuous of me to comment on conditions in the UK regarding anything other than vaccine policy, of which I know a little bit thanks to John Stone. I certainly know nothing of the relations between whites and blacks in the UK, or of policing. But in the U.S., the black voices I hear are sick tired of being pandered to by political leaders, and most black Americans are appalled by the thuggery and violence which has occurred in recent weeks. It damages their lives as it does the lives of the rest of us, perhaps more. Black Americans tend to be more conservative than whites. The times I’ve been in the South I’ve been treated better than anywhere else in the U.S., by blacks and whites both. I suspect that racial animosity is a universal phenomenon in a portion of every population, but it is no worse here than anywhere else, despite the way the media portrays it. Americans are, on the whole, good people, as are the British, French, Australians, and all the rest.

          2. Darby

            Gary Ogden “Black Americans tend to be more conservative than whites” Are you serious?
            If a black American tells me me i am wrong then i apologise.

          3. Gary Ogden

            Darby: This is true, the fact that they vote in a high percentage for the Democrats notwithstanding. They are also more religious than the overall population. And they see through BS more easily because of our history. Jewish people have this kind of insight, too, because of the history of European Jewry.

          4. Gary Ogden

            Darby: Americans come in many shades of skin color, as do the British, French, Australians, Ghanians, Jamaicans, Japanese, Filipinos, Egyptians, Syrians, Germans, Swedes, Kenyans, Canadians, Mexicans, and so forth. For the most part, people are decent and kind all over the world, yet in every country I’ve lived in or visited, people with darker skin are looked down upon. I hate this, but there is nothing I can do about it except treat everyone with basic human dignity. The media presents an entirely warped view of people and their lives. So your view of what Americans are like bears no relationship to reality. By the way, I’m not white; I’m pink, though tending toward tan now that it is summer.

          5. Darby

            Gary
            What i’m trying to say is that a lot pink americans ( not you) and a lot of pink brits are nasty racists

          6. AhNotepad

            There are a lot of nasty people of most ethnicities around the world who are racist. It’s not just pinks in the UK or US, and it’s sometimes their own people they attack.

          7. AhNotepad

            The UK government spokesmen and women are mostly white, They are definitely not good people in my opinion, in fact the government of occupation appears to be run by people who are incompetent or evil. There is a short video on Monday’s (29th) UK Column broadcast, introduced by David Scott which shows a black speaker in the US, and who is definitely a good person.

            So why do you keep trying to twist anybody’s words as if you were a Channel 4 interviewer who is just trying to score points?

          8. Darby

            AhNotepad
            I would rather be a Channel 4 interviewer than a BBC ar~l~~ker
            The BBC has so disappointed me following the government line

          9. AhNotepad

            Darby as far as the BBC goes, I completely agree with your opinion. But then they are bought by Billy the Kid Unfortunately Channel 4, like the rest of MSM is not interested in truth either

        1. Darby

          If the “subject” as you call him hadn’t been killed then maybe the brute would have killed somebody else.

          Reply
    1. Doug from Canada

      Gary Ogden, I didn’t say any of that, you did.
      Go back and read the original post.

      This is not the forum for that type of debate.

      Fentanyl kills without hospitalization and it kills people in this age group. That was my only point.

      Reply
  56. Tim O'Rourke

    The Belarus Vs Belgium is interesting, but you need to look at population concentration not just population. Population density of Belarus is 48 people per square km, Belgium is 376 per square km. This explains many of the differences across countries and why the UK had it so bad compared to Italy. Also the rate in the USA is really bad but with a pop density of only 36, but most Americans are grouped in big cities which is why transmission rates are so high

    Reply
    1. David Bailey

      John,

      I think you said you are a GP, so I find it really interesting if you are reaching the same conclusion that I am.

      The continuing lockdown is justified by a test which may or may not produce false positives – nobody seems even interested in the question. The PCR test has an arbitrary cut off beyond which it is assumed to be negative, but the number of cycles can be as high as 37 or 45 according to one paper I read, and which I posted here.

      Almost everyone it kills is close to death for other reasons, and highly susceptible to a range of diseases that are normally considered unimportant. Something else seems to have happened in China and Italy, but can we even be sure there wasn’t some other disease or chemical pollutant responsible.

      If this disease is normally mild or asymptomatic, it may be widespread by now, and as ever more tests are performed, and the positive ones are described (wrongly I think) as “COVID-19 cases” – even without symptoms – the panic can be whipped up again and again by just increasing the amount of testing, or even ‘improving’ the tests to produce more false positives.

      No effort is made to stop people being recorded as dying of COVID when they died of something else.

      Some people make grotesque amounts of money on the stock markets betting against currencies – so there may be a motive for this sort of evil scam.

      Reply
        1. Steve-R

          Are you saying that the generally accepted progress of a SARS-CoV-2 infection;
          transmission to patient > 2 days > patient highly infectious > 2-3 days > symptoms of Covid-19 appear (patient infectious) > 9-10 days > antibody production in recovery (days to weeks possibly months during which patient is no longer infectious)
          Is incorrect?

          Reply
          1. IMoz

            if you don’t have the patience to watch the whole three minutes, the answer starts at about 1:15.

  57. Terry Wright

    shock; horror;
    https://www.wtvy.com/content/news/New-federal-COVID-19-nursing-home-data-fraught-with-inaccuracies-overcounts-and-undercounts-571064081.html

    “a 96-bed nursing home in New Jersey has had a staggering 753 COVID-19 deaths among its residents since January.”

    “Another nursing home owned by the same company, Advanced Subacute Care of Sewell, showed 396 COVID-19 deaths in CMS data. The state says it has had 28.”

    …… and everyone runs around believing “Test Results” ……and what the MSM tells them!!

    Reply
  58. Jimmy Christian

    Epidemiology is such a heterogeneous science, filled with so many variables, that we collectively struggle to discern patterns, particularly when half the data is missing to begin with. One could easily ask — how severe is the disease for those with comorbidities (no such thing as a pre-existing condition, by the way — if it is pre-existing it does not exist yet, other than pre-death) — but break it down into whether the individuals concerned are more susceptible due to the conditions or to the drugs they’re taking to tackle those conditions? Or some combination of both? How susceptible are people on a high-sugar content diet? What about ethnicity? And the biggie — which no one seems to be answering — might there be some level of partial immunity afforded by prior infection by known circulating human beta-coronaviruses? Antibodies to the spike protein could have some cross-reactivity, but of course no one is testing for OC43, either through serology or PCR, during the surge of Covid-19 testing.

    No test is valid as a diagnostic unless it guides the follow-up treatment. So much emphasis has been placed on the value of sheer numbers of testing, but that is purely for public health and epidemiological considerations. The value of a positive test (or for that matter, even a negative one) should primarily be for the patients/test subjects themselves, to help guide their treatment. That principle is not Covid-specific, it applies to every medical situation. When government web sites only tell you, if you test positive, “stay home, isolate, practice good hygiene and sterilize everything” that’s fine, but those instructions are for the benefit of others. They don’t help you with treatments you can administer at home.

    So – here’s my theory. Are those groups in England and other countries with higher death rates not receiving helpful information as to how they can help themselves when they receive a positive diagnostic? Whereas do those who have lower death rates receive a more constructive message?

    Reply
    1. AhNotepad

      Jimmy wrote “So – here’s my theory. Are those groups in England and other countries with higher death rates not receiving helpful information as to how they can help themselves when they receive a positive diagnostic? Whereas do those who have lower death rates receive a more constructive message?

      The information for most people is from the same places as all the Rona crap originates, so they don’t know how to help themselves. The death rate is low anyway, but shouldn’t we really be considering the infection rate? Most people don’t get Rona anyway, the ones who don’t get it or who have the best outcomes are probably people who question the official information, then do the right things.

      Reply
  59. Terry Wright

    “Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the PCR tests used to identify so-called COVID-19 patients presumably infected by what is called SARS-CoV-2 do not have a valid gold standard to compare them with. This is a fundamental point.”

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/27/covid19-pcr-tests-are-scientifically-meaningless/

    the article is entitled “COVID19 PCR Tests are Scientifically Meaningless”

    … more …..

    “Jessica C. Watson from Bristol University confirms this. In her paper “Interpreting a COVID-19 test result”, published recently in The British Medical Journal, she writes that there is a “lack of such a clear-cut ‘gold-standard’ for COVID-19 testing.””

    It heads off on similar lines to the article David Bailey has published twice: questioning; asking; searching; both the above and DB’s articles are worth reading; … folks come to this forum I think to contribute and reflect; (rather than be fed …)

    but hey ……. just put all your faith in the numbers; slavery is freedom; war is peace; Big Brother loves ya!

    Reply
  60. John

    Some more naive questions:
    1) With some bacteria, e.g. MRSA, Strep A, it is possible to be colonised without being infected, can the same happen with viruses (I know that Herpes family does remain in the body after infection) ?
    2) If 1) is possible then could that show up as a positive test?
    3) If the answers to 1) and 2) are possible then does that mean that you’re necessarily infectious?
    3a) if the answer to 3) is in the negative then does that mean that lockdown is ineffective?
    4) If an antibody test is positive, then why cannot it be said that you’re immune?
    5) if the presence of antibodies does not confer immunity then how can the efficacy of a vaccine be shown to work?

    Reply
    1. Fergus Glencross

      Answers
      1. Yes. If by infected you mean symptomatic.
      2. Yes
      3. No
      4. Not enough known yet about the virus.
      5. Good question.

      Reply
    2. angelinn

      re 4 – lack of evidence is the problem, there’s no evidence either way. Not seen a documented case of a second infection and it’s hard to prove it’s impossible. So we can’t be *certain* antibodies provide immunity, but on balance of probability it seems likely.

      Reply
      1. Terry Wright

        the assumption that everyone is led to: is that “immunity” .. survival .. can ONLY come from antibodies; this so, so wrong ……………
        from this paper Dr K pointed us to weeks ago: https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/1743-422X-5-29 it very nicely talks of what each of us have: AMPs (anti-microbial peptides): call them endogenous antibiotics if you will;

        we can destroy “invaders” (be they bacteria, virus, or fungi) … without having met them before: we have the mucosa of the nose and lungs: a barrier: from this, defence is done …

        think of the innate system as repelling the vikings before they land on the beach; or defeating them in the surf: there is no “memory” ie no crops burnt, or villages destroyed; think of wooden stakes in the water to prevent entry; and soldiers to meet them on the beach; that is the innate system. If you are well, it works well.

        Vit D UP-regulates this innate system;

        To the contrary, the ADAPTIVE system is the making of 1) inflammatory cytokines, and 2) the making of antibodies:

        sort of like the Vikings have got inland: they need to be rounded up and killed; they have damaged villages: and the damage cytokines do to us: is “collateral damage” in killing Vikings;

        so fascinatingly, Vit D DOWN-regulates this adaptive system: so FEWER cytokines roaming; depressed antibody production https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2821804/pdf/nihms171793.pdf

        strange? ……. well, if the vikings don’t get ashore, and you can stop them getting ashore, the primary defences (the INNATE system); is doing its job; the secondary (fall-back) system is NOT needed so much; (as it would be if the innate didn’t do its job ………)

        so eat lots of carbs; use lots of “vegetable” oils that are very high in omega-6: and so harm yourself; ie have a heightened inflammatory state; use sun-blocker; hide indoors; get no sun; get your Vit D levels really low ……. you are now primed to do really badly with any respiratory viral wave: any respiratory viral wave in late winter …. it can be any viral wave: you are wide open

        Reply
        1. John

          Let me see if I have got this right:
          First line of defence AMP, found in the mucosa, little or no symptoms. Enhanced by vitamin D.
          Second line of defence: adaptive immune system- this being triggered is demonstrated in presence of antibodies, but also is the source of the cytokine storms that have occurred in very ill patients. Modulated by vitamin D.
          The Swiss article that suggests that only very ill patients have measurable antibodies and those with relatively mild symptoms have few if any, is correct. Therefore my antibody test if negative proves nothing.
          The testing involves swabbing the nose and the throat for a specific viral signature, if the person is asymptomatic then the virus is being managed by the AMP.
          Is asymptomatic patient infectious or not?
          Does the viral signature imply an infectious viral load?
          The results from Leicester suggest that there are an increased number of children testing positive, and hence are seen as another source of infection with schools closing again on Thursday.
          The alleged spike in Leicester has occurred in an area of the city with a high Asian demographic, where TB occasionally emerges with higher levels of CVD, diabetes and vitamin D deficiency.

          Reply
          1. KJE

            Well,the more people you test, the more “cases” (positive tests) you get. It’s only a big deal if the death rate is high. When I lived in Leicester there was a large (ex-Ugandan) Asian population and also a lot of Afro-Caribbeans, so low vit D a possibility if they’ve been staying indoors.

          2. Terry Wright

            thanks John: a nasal swab test would be PCR: a serology test would be a blood sample test.

            PCR is meant to be: are there viral fragments in the system:

            a serology (antibody) test would be: has the body made antibodies to the virus?

            You ask … “Does the viral signature imply an infectious viral load?” .. I am guessing by viral signature you mean the nasal PCR test: .. well ……. this has never been validated; there is no gold standard: it is like a little princess stamping her feet and saying: it is so, because I say it is so; we have no idea of the false positive rate;

            and what you say prompts me to reflect; if the AMPs are killing virus on the mucosal surface; and they don’t get “ashore” and penetrate into the tissues; then a POSITIVE test could just mean there are viral fragments; breakdown bits; on the exterior: the mucosal surface;

            ……. there is no intact virus: like after a battle, it is like picking up damaged swords; damaged shields; smashed armour;

            the PCR then multiplies these damaged fragments a gazillion times; and like the sorcerer’s apprentice ……… ca-pow!! ……. you have a miraculous answer ……..

            a positive PCR test tells us nothing of viral penetration into the body; finding damaged viral fragments OUTSIDE: in the mucous fluid of the nose; is just crazy (to me) when I reflect on it: we have viruses all around; if we had tests for all of them circulating, we would go crazy ..

            ….. hang on; wait a minute ……… we have gone crazy already ………

            “an increased number of children testing positive” .. are these children unwell? The answer seems to be no: testing for the sake of testing.

          3. AhNotepad

            This is Hancock’s Health Service. I guess he might soon think it is time to move-on his investments in pharmaceuticals and killer ventilators, and buy stocks in the funeral businesses. They have a bright future. Talking of bright, when you next think of Watership Down, forget rabbits and think of “the vulnerable”.

        2. colinbannon

          Thanks Terry, that is such a good way of putting it. Analogies are needed with the immune system as its magnificence is so poorly understood and its wonder under-estimated.

          Reply
        3. Janet Love

          Excellent explanation, even politicians and journalists could grasp the concepts, – But not spectacularly headline- grabbing, so won’t go far.
          And it points the intelligent reader to appropriate therapy.

          Reply
      2. Terry Wright

        a memorable summary!! … “81% possess some degree of functional T-cell memory!

        ………………. Only the panic is novel …”

        citing https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1

        Translated: this means: coronaviruses are very common; they may change their surface proteins; but much of them remains the same: we have all been exposed repeatedly to these crona things; endlessly; repeatedly; over and over again .. our innate immune system should kill them; our killer T-cells are roving “bouncers” who dispose of them; (part of innate immunity) but within a T-cell is memory: they remember them as of the corona family; they know to dispose of them.

        Reply
      3. Sasha

        I had seen a headline (on Medscape, I think) that there’s evidence of ABs disappearing after 2-3 months in both symptomatic and asymptomatic Covid cases. I haven’t read the article and don’t know much about it otherwise.

        Reply
        1. Gary Ogden

          Sasha: Interesting. It is a fact that vaccine-induced antibodies disappear, but it usually takes years. Methinks the immune system is very, very complicated!

          Reply
        2. Terry Wright

          Hi Sasha; this would be antibodies produced by B lymphocytes:

          but have a read at the post above: innate and adaptive : antibodies are the lumbering, slow, plodding system that finally arrives ……. it is the later adaptive system

          .. the T-cells (also lymphocytes) are the nimble “early on the scene” bouncers; they largely sort things; if the scene is tidied up, there is very little remnants for the later, plodding, world-weary B cells to sit down and make antibodies to: like sort of doing your knitting ..

          .. so if the INNATE system: our endogenous antibiotics; the AMPs you can read about here https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/1743-422X-5-29 disposes of invaders before they “get ashore onto the beach”, then there is very little debris for the B cells to later make antibodies to: think of antibodies as actually a failure of the other systems to dispose of invaders, and remove them:

          so yes: if you largely sorted the invader with early T-cells; then little detritus for the B-cells to later rummage through, and ploddingly make antibodies; and the body will “tut-tut” and tidy them later if no further exposure; but there is deep memory, that only emerges when a further challenge comes.

          .. T-cells; deeply within them; seem to have elephantine memories: they remember coronaviruses from many years before: …. trust your T-cells; adaptable; rapidly-responding ..

          key is:
          1) avoid carbs; keep your insulin down; you are less tasty to viruses and bacteria and fungi that way: bugs love glucose; and insulin drives them along ….
          2) keep your innate system at peak condition: get sun whilst you can; take 4-5000 IU of Vit D a day .. probably all year round in the UK. best wishe

          Reply
      4. Anna M

        angelinn,
        I think there is some valid question as to how long the antibodies might remain in a person’s system, but the presence of antibodies should definitely indicate immunity.

        Reply
        1. AhNotepad

          That doesn’t seem to work with at least the dtp vaccine. Either it’s no good and doesn’t produce antibodies, or antibodies don’t result in immunity.

          Reply
  61. Phil Thompson

    Fiddling around with the numbers I can see 4 weeks starting w/e 10th April with an uptick in deaths in the 35-39 group only not in younger groups. Works out to about 100 excess deaths. Other groups don’t look by eye to be significantly different.

    Reply
  62. Anna M

    I thought I ought to share the following comment, from somewhere in the US:

    ” Another interesting fact is that our county was reported by our state to have 50 covid-19 cases by the local hospital – which has been closed for well over a year…”

    Reply
  63. Steve-R

    I see that both NICE and SACN have gone on record to say that Vitamin D3 is of no particular benefit if you catch Covid19, and that only tiny levels are necessary to promote bone and muscle health.
    Why have a got a tune from Ghostbuster running around in my head?
    “Who they gonna shill for?”
    chorus
    “Big Pharma”

    Sorry, but it maddens me that they can lie so openly to an already ill-informed public, about something vital for good health, that is known to be at abnormally low levels for known reasons. Are they scared to have to point out to our current political leaders’ ‘base’ that we whiteys aren’t pigment deficient because we are superior but because we had to evolve to produce enough D3 to survive ‘out of Africa’?

    Reply
    1. Terry Wright

      thanks Steve-R;

      “it maddens me that they can lie so openly to an already ill-informed public” you are very right.

      A friend sent me this newsletter from the College of Physicians; they are promoting the same line as NICE and all these lot: a sort of “tut, tut … we know best … nothing to see here … buzz off” .. .. approach …..

      If you google on Adrienne Cullum (PHE England) you will see she is deep into the “eat lots of carbs, particularly if you have T2 diabetes ” .. rubbish that PHE specialises in propagating .. there is this curious PHE web of deliberating propagating rubbish info: avoid fat; avoid salt; avoid Vit D ….. the good thing is whatever PHE says … do the opposite and it will be better ……. a certainty ..

      https://online.flowpaper.com/70b706f2/JuneCommentaryonline/#page=12

      You can see David Grimes is one of the 3 authors that wrote advocating Vit D; he is very articulate and informed on Vit D’s central role. Not well received.

      We can make maybe 20,000 IU of Vit D in the sun in maybe 30mins in summer; and they disseminate this mad idea that swallowing 4000 IU is harmful! Truly these folks are crazy.

      Reply
      1. AhNotepad

        Thanks for all the links you post, I wish I had time to read them all thoroughly. Must stop as I need to load hundreds of vit C into capsules for the family.

        Reply
    1. KJE

      Seems unlikely since no one has actually isolated the virus. I think I leave that one in the realms of science fiction.

      Reply
      1. AhNotepad

        KJE, there is also the flag that indicates some false information. The green monkey kidney cells are claimed to be “electron microscopy” image. Electron microscope do not show colour, only black and white.

        Reply
    2. Tom Welsh

      A sensational newspaper story that essentially rtells us that viruses hijack cells and use the cellular machinery to turn out more viruses and infect further cells.

      All of which has been known for at least 70 years.

      Words like “monstrous” are really not very helpful in the circumstances. Especially in reference to structures that look to be less than 10 microns in length.

      Reply
    3. Jerome Savage

      Randall – “Startling” , ” never-before-seen” ,
      ” monstrous tentacles”.
      Did you write that or did you copy & paste from the Sun ?

      Reply
    4. Terry Wright

      Thanks Randall; this sounds like one of those “EXPERTS WARN …. ” stories. I stopped trying to download the link; as endless other links lined up to get there first; so I didn’t read the story; but ..

      …. no-one has isolated the virus; no-one has an EM photo of it: it is all short-cuts, proxies, surrogate markers, sleight of hand; it is sort of Tommy Cooper magic: when I measure green, it must mean there is a monster hiding in that deep pond: why? you ask …. it is because I and my mates (us virologists) say it is: how dare you challenge us: we of the priesthood are right, and unchallengable;

      “monstrous tentacles that branch out .. ” ……. this is all just science-fiction fantasy: we are going mad, or being driven mad.

      Reply
  64. Jeremy May

    Referring back to the original post, it looks like we have another anomaly. An ‘unusually high’ number of positive tests among children in Leicester, a city that appears to be having a virus spike. So a partial lockdown will be enforced, with the agreement of the majority of residents, ‘according to reports’.
    But citizens wishing to get close and personal have suggested they’ll drive outside the city limits and boogy. Perhaps they’ll gather in Hinkley, or Loughborough and spread their good cheer there. Then they too will have a partial lockdown to contend with.
    Unless of course, as some have suggested, there is no virus, no problem.
    In which case what we really need is someone accountable to take control, make a decision and tell the good citizens of Leicester that there is’nt a problem after all.
    It’s all very confusing.

    Reply
    1. KJE

      I think the Mayor tried but was given a kicking. Perhaps they’ll all go and boogie on the racecourse since at least one side of it is technically in Oadby.

      Reply
      1. John

        Oadby is in lockdown as well, along with Wigston, Birstall and Glenfield which are all outside the city boundary. There’s a suspicion that the spike was due to unscrupulous practices by certain companies in the affected area according to the Guardian. On a different note, my antibody test came back negative (which I suspected it would despite me having symptoms associated with covid), therefore my innate immune system worked as it should with a bit of help from my vitamin D supplements and despite my age, gender and existing conditions.

        Reply
    2. Jerome Savage

      Jeremy – Leicester has possibly the highest urban BAME population per head in the UK.
      The Vit D factor ?

      Reply
      1. AhNotepad

        Look at https://youtu.be/_FxfJxYoa3Q I suspect there is no connection with BAME, it is a case of more tests = more cases and the intention is to disorient people and break communities and social structure as outlined in the behavioural document of 2010.

        Distrust the government. – Avoid the media. – Fight the lies.

        Reply
        1. Jerome Savage

          AHN – Governments & public bodies are highly inefficient. The possibility of such a massively organised below the radar and unbudgetted or not obviously budgeted scheme to subvert the people is unlikely to say the least. Only in a time of war can a rallying cry against an obvious & nation threatening foe beckon the resources and the will and the willpower of a public service and all ancillaries bring about the type of movement you suspect is being played out. No – it’s about media generating alarms, the alarms and alarming headlines vying for greater attention and politicians playing out to the cacophony – they must they must be seen to be in control, hav this problem by scruff of the neck or doing their damdest to protect the public. The media are the scriptwriters and the government take the stage. Pharma sell the overpriced hot dogs and candy floss and Gates funds the whole show and gets the accolades in the reviews. And that ladies & gentlemen is a true story.

          Reply
          1. AhNotepad

            Jerome, this is not a situation that was caused by a knee-jerk reaction to a claimed threat, the plan has been in progress for decades. Looking at a few broadcasts from UK Column will give the history. The plan has not been from public bodies, but from private interests meddling in the government business. Rockefeller and Gates to name but two.

          2. Jerome Savage

            AHN – just as the Telegraph has started asking awkward questions some 2 months after lockdown, and being a major mainstream player in the media world and presumably also part of the grand plot, so some intrepid reporter with a half decent editor would have found a whistleblower and blown open the whole charade – especially as this grand plot is 30 years in the making – no ? A major conspiracy with so many worldwide players and interactions would surely have sprung enough leaks to fill the barrels of half the worlds hacks.
            Journalists disappear in Russia & Saudi, not the UK or the West in general.

          3. Sasha

            I think we often underestimate how difficult it is for a true whistle blower story to see the light of day. For more on this, look up 2 books: “Science for Sale” that Gary (I believe?) mentioned earlier or “Side Effects”, the book that describes the saga that led to SSRIs getting a black box warning for children and young adults. “Side Effects” describes in detail how SSRI story was very close to being snuffed out. It’s almost a miracle (and due to heroic efforts of people involved) that it came out. There’s also a documentary about whistle blowers the title of which I don’t remember. They interview these people and describe the tribulations they go through before something happens. In many cases, I believe, nothing happens and the story gets buried.

            It’s important to remember that whenever there’s a true story worthy of blowing a whistle on, there are lots of people on the other side, whose livelihoods and reputations are at stake and who are very interested in it not coming out.

          4. Jerome Savage

            Sasha – exposure is difficult – true especially given the litigious nature of US society in particular. Re the SSRI stories, it’s easy to imagine an editor pondering the possibility of a reader’s self harm & worse , following “non compliance” with a prescription – for whatever reason and a solicitor or lawyer eying that media source for retribution. Might there also be seen to be matters of public policy bla bla ?
            It’s a legal minefield out there plus advertisers influence is not unlikely.

          5. KJE

            A web search for Children of the Cure, Dr David Healy, Study 329 and Samizdat might be enlightening on SSRIs.

          6. Jerome Savage

            KJE – re David Healy, quick look up produced this remarkable extract from his work
            “About 4000 families in the US have children born with major birth defects each year because of antidepressants taken in pregnancy. Up to 20,000 women per year have a miscarriage because of these drugs and a large number have voluntary terminations linked to antidepressants. Miscarriages are among the biggest single predictors of later mental illness and substance misuse in women” Healy appears to be very well regarded. Thanks for that.

          7. Sasha

            Jerome: SSRI INVESTIGATION was being worked hard to get shut down, not publishing it. Publishing the book came much later, after all was said and done.

          8. Jerome Savage

            AHN – yes they do. But not such a conspiracy within a medical context to manage to involve each & every public body and fool the whole world at the same time. That conspiratorial thesis just does not stand up. Our population has come to expect what our forefathers wouldn’t hav dreamt of just a few generations ago. Isnt it reasonable to assume that the same can be applied to matters of health even though our lifestyles & habits are less conducive to good health. It’s also possible that this skewed demand has been as a result of the sedentary false food lifestyle. Pharma duly responded to the demand with concoctions marketed heavily to counteract the human body’s new found WMD. Cholesterol being one of these new found WMD’s and statins part of the pharma war machine. Re iraq war, a once off, the UK would traditionally support the US war agenda along with the old WW2 allies. The big lie was WMD. Marketed by Colin Powell & swallowed by Blair without a second thought. Only mitigating factor was that Saddam was bad, almost as bad as about 10 other dictators. Maybe Tony & Bush should have focused on the hundreds of thousands of annual prescription deaths.
            https://ethics.harvard.edu/blog/new-prescription-drugs-major-health-risk-few-offsetting-advantages

          9. AhNotepad

            Jerome, not such a conspiracy in the field of medicine. Really? Have a look at this https://youtu.be/1Z5VYqJqrtI at around 20mins. There is a lot of mentions of “flood the zone” referring to controlling “the message” from Event 201 in October 2019. I suppose it’s still possible to deny this is a conspiracy, but that does require redefining what “conspiracy” means.

          10. Jerome Savage

            AHN – Not really surprised at the links in the “health” conglomerate interests with an interest in illness & sickness. My point is the Boston Globe was not afraid to take on paedophilia in the beloved well linked church, Washington post took on Tricky Dickie in the Watergate scandal, all papers + the banal BBC on Epstein & the Prince (two major influencers operating at the very top) so why aren’t some of the talented journalists of today who have access to all this putting this to their editors & getting lots of attention ? Ok Guardian & BBC can be seen to be bought by Gates but there are plenty others who want circulation & attention.
            Incidentally she let herself down by signalling that 666 appears in a particular organisation’s logo – presumably to appeal to extreme religious nuts & ultra conspiracy addicts. Very interesting nonetheless & good to get a look at. Thanks

    3. AhNotepad

      Bear in mind the president of Tanzania has already exposed the unreliability and possible fraud associated with rona virus testing. Why should we think testing in Leicester is 1) reliable, 2) in anyway relevant. Also the US states that did not have a “lockdown” did not have a deaths’ spike thet the “lockdown” states experienced. Someone might be Doctoring Data.

      Reply
  65. David Bailey

    This article in the New York Times was a linked to within something someone else posted here. It seems particularly relevant in a medical discussion:

    It would seem that PCR tests have triggered previous ‘epidemics’. In this case it seemed like a bacterial disease, Whooping Cough, and the PCR test confirmed this. It was only weeks later that it was discovered that it was impossible to grow the bacteria that the mistake was discovered.

    Reply
    1. Terry Wright

      thanks David; in the early days of investigating the virus from the 1980s; Kary Mullins, who invented PCR; was brought in to help; as I understood it, he disagreed vehemently with the way it was being used; but why listen to the person who developed it !! …… sort of like the guy who developed the PSA test; who has written a book on how he is aghast it is now used to “diagnose”!! prostatic cancer …… no, no splutters the inventor .. you have got it wrong!!

      the article you cited in previous posts, David Crow talks in detail of this abuse and misuse of PCR technology: there are no policemen in virology: it seems a very closed circle of self-worshippers, self-promoters and self-believers; and the end-game: it would seem is vaccines and antiviral drugs; again, the article you cited (before the abover) discusses the seeming lethality of antivirals; often to humans, rather than viruses!!

      Reply
  66. phillip tate

    Fantastic bit of info I always follow your lead
    However after reading a part of one of your books on doctoring data how much of what you have discovered as been drs the data different countries have sent in how much of that as been drd

    Reply
    1. Jerome Savage

      Philip – can I suggest that Dr’g data almost exclusively looks at profit & market share driven business entities. Though we cant rule it out, the fact that the data collected comes largely from public sector bodies, the temptation to manipulate data is not the same. More likely different strokes etc & slovenly practices could have an influence.

      Reply
  67. Jerome Savage

    Back to living & living good.
    This from an Aussie wandering Europe currently near Trieste North East Italy- “As if by way of farewell to Italy I had a complete Italian conversation.” “He is 90 (though I made him prove it by way of his licence – he appeared to be in his sixties) explaining to me the secret to his youthfulness was regular bike rides – he’s a road cyclist – fruit, vegetables, pasta, and working” Pasta !!

    Reply
  68. Gary Ogden

    Darby: I’ve been responding to you because I think we’re on the same team; that is, angry at racial injustice. Most Americans feel the same way. What is revolting to me is the shameless way the political class (and the media, which heavily favors the Democrats) exploits every instance of injustice for votes. Political life in the U.S. has been disgusting since 2015. The main reason there are so many young black men in U.S. prisons is, not just racism, but the harsh sentencing laws put in place by the Clinton administration during the ’90’s, with Senator Joe Biden greasing the skids. An instructive read is “No Joe! Biden’s Disastrous Legislative Legacy,” by Andrew Cockburn in the March, 2019 Harper’s Magazine. Both Harper’s Magazine and Andrew Cockburn are aligned with the Left (Democrats), so this is no right-wing hit piece. How any black American could consider voting for Joe is beyond me. Except they don’t know, as I didn’t. As awful as he is in many ways, the reason we have Trump is that the Clinton’s are worse (and Trump s a much better campaigner than Hillary). I no longer pay any attention to national politics because it is ugly and meaningless. My vote in the primaries this Spring went to Tulsi Gabbard, who, other than Bernie, was the only honorable person in the running. She had a snowball’s chance in Hell of getting the nomination, but she told the truth. The only elections which really matter are local ones, though.

    Reply
  69. Terry Wright

    If I make another analogy about the PCR test for crona: the one where they fish around in the snot in your nose, and always come up positive!! They are always a winner!
    _____________________________________________________________________
    back to vikings: If we think of vikings invading England, in their long-boats;

    if they attempt to come ashore at a beach where there are stakes driven into the sand all along the beach; and out into the surf; and on the beach are armed men and archers;
    if the vikings cannot land their boat but come in individually; and are caught on stakes; or shot by arrows; or killed by soldiers on the beach; and the remainder flee out to sea and are gone ……..

    (the innate immune system: AMPs and T-cells has done its work ….)

    then anyone inspecting the scene a day or so later …… may find ….. broken shields … smashed swords …….. damaged helmets ……… where the INNATE (AMPs etc) system has done its work ..

    the point of an invasion would be for the vikings to establish themselves inland; and build a camp; and probably burn and destroy crops and villages; but establish themselves …

    if we think of a person “being infected”, we surely imagine virus circulating in the blood and propagating …… ?? .. like vikings roaming the countryside, unimpeded?
    ___________________________________________________________________________-so if we look at a nasal PCR test for crona:

    it is just looking for viral fragments; floating in the snot of the nose; this says NOTHING of active (complete) virus; it is just tiny, isolated, viral fragments; likely dead or damaged ………..

    so if the Innate Immune System has disposed of the virus amidst the mucous of the nasal mucosa,

    and all we are finding is akin to smashed helmets, broken shields and lances …

    how can it be seen as the vikings having successfully invaded?

    ie we take a positive PCR as a proxy for: OMG: the virus has invaded ………… it may well be just showing effective disposal of a few of the one trillion particles we breathe in each day …

    Reply
    1. AhNotepad

      Terry, I see that as a good analogy, there are one or two here will disagree, they may be right or wrong, but some people seem to come out od=f thier slumbers, and if they hear (or even think of) the word “virus” it seems to be considered a 100% indication of a death causing outbreak. Asterix the Gaul had something to say about the virus history https://youtu.be/_6yR6uNcVKE

      Reply
    2. Darby

      Terry, i wish i could understand what you were on about. The coronavirus might disappear without trace but the Vikings didn’t. just look at the dna of parts of Britain.

      Reply
      1. Terry Wright

        thanks Darby: I would suggest:
        1) think about the PCR snot test: can you believe it?
        2) antibodies are a sign of failure: you failed to keep the invader out.

        Reply
  70. Nick Turner

    Just received this from Simon Dolan via Crowdjustic, concerning the preliminary hearing against the Government’s lockdown policy

    “Update on Join the Legal Challenge to the UK Govt Lockdown

    Hi

    Quick update about the preliminary hearing tomorrow. Sadly there is no public video link, and of course, it’s being done behind closed doors. However we will be getting updates out just as soon as possible, and hope to be able to video it ourselves for release at some stage. Don’t forget to follow my Twitter account (@simondolan) for up to the minute news.

    In the meantime, to mark the awful milestone that it 100 days of lockdown, we have made this video which we would appreciate you sharing far and wide.

    Together we can beat them

    Thank you”

    The fund now stands at £198,335, with 6,407 pledges.

    Reply
    1. Nick Turner

      The video link doesn’t appear to be working here, although it worked for me – this should be OK.

      Reply
  71. Steve-R

    I wonder if the Russian Health Ministry’s publication of data indicating a sperm quality reduction of 38% in recovered males will make our testosterone fuelled lockdown ignorers a bit more cautious? I seem to recall that early on there was the suggestion that male gonads were particularly susceptible having a greater density of ACE2 receptors.

    On a speculation tack, could it be the case that care homes have inadvertently been making their elderly residents more vulnerable by removing them from the regular ‘challenge’ that the little virus-vectors provide to child-minding grandparents? After all the body definitely works on a ‘use it or lose it’ with brain and muscle and, as is being found with Varicella vaccine and teenage shingles incidence in the US, a failure to expose your immune system to pathogens on a regular basis reduces your ability to deal with them when they do attack.

    Reply
    1. Anna M

      Steve R,

      I am gobsmacked that the Russian govt has found the time and money to look for recovered males, not too elderly, and check their sperm quality against – what? – controls I guess. That is quite a project.
      Even if true, I doubt it is very significant. An insult to the body can cause sperm count or quality to drop. A woman under stress may not menstruate. But sperm is on a 3 month cycle. I wonder if they might find that from time to time males sperm go down for a bit.

      Reply
  72. Charles Gale

    Coronavirus – a retrospective back to March

    Fancy some sanity, common sense, science, articulate and interesting conversation?

    I’m a regular visitor to Ivor Cummins’ Fat Emperor website and I thought I’d bring this latest podcast to everyone’s attention:

    https://thefatemperor.com/ep85-viral-realities-revealed-dr-john-lee-pathology-professor-lockdown/

    What’s covered? I was going to itemise the topics covered but I won’t – it’s pretty much everything covered by Dr Kendrick (and some not covered) and also us commenters.

    Don’t let the 1 hr 18 min running time put you off – every second counts and the viewing time should fly by.

    With lockdown easing here in the UK and supermarket cafes opening shortly I’ve now been issued with a perspex visor to wear if entering the cafe.

    Perspex shielding gets covered – I had to smile at the timing – but do they work (and face masks too) and what could be behind it? Find out at 55 mins…

    Reply
    1. Dr. John H

      Charles, I skipped to the 55 minute mark as you said, and John Lee says faces masks and plastic shields don’t work. Did I miss something?

      Reply
    2. Dr. John H

      Oh, I get it now. He says face masks “simply don’t work” but they “make people feel better”.
      I look forward to the rest of the interview!

      Reply
    3. ShirleyKate

      Charles, I was going to view your link but Dr John has kindly answered the ‘masks don’t work’ bit. But I must use one as I need to get on a bus. One wonders why medical staff wear them if they don’t work? Perhaps to make them feel better? Thanks Dr John, you saved me an hour there.
      And Dr Kendrick please remember your promise to give us a piece that is not related to Covid. Soon?

      Reply
      1. AhNotepad

        ShirleyKate, locally very few people are wearing masks on buses , and the drivers say they cannot enforce it. Nor can anyone else as it is not a law.

        Reply
        1. ShirleyKate

          They must help a bit though Notepad, or why do medical staff wear them? For 5 or 10 per cent less risk it’s still worth it I think.

          Reply
          1. AhNotepad

            ShirleyKate, 5 to 10% less risk? Of what? The 5 to 10% figure, where ever it comes from could well be relative risk. What would that make the absolute risk? For that we would need some data, and it would have to be accurate. At present not much testing has been done, and the tests are inappropriate (PCR) for diagnosis and when used as such, are notoriously unreliable. Antibody tests are not much better.

            What are the claimed benefits of the masks? When tests on masks have been done, contamination was found on the inside surface on the mask. Much less, if any, on the outside. To me this indicates you might have breathed out the virus into the wider world, but the mask stopped that happening. The next breath you take will take in some of that contamination, meaning you breath in some virus particles and thus increasing the load your immune system has to deal with. How long can this go on before your immune system is overloaded? Of course you may not have the virus, and this will not be a problem, until you breathe in a virus from someone else, and the gaps in and around the mask will not stop a virus. Not to mention the blood oxygen level drop from having to work against the restriction of the mask.

            The question is why is wearing a mask a 5 to 10% reduction in risk anymore likely than a 5 to 10% increase in risk? Or any other figure. All the quoted risk figures are finger-in-the-air guesses. (Give away words are “could “ and “potential”.

            We haven’t even considered the psychological problems caused by blocking a major communication pathway, namely facial expression.

            I could be wrong in all of this of course.

          2. KJE

            Or perhaps the mask reduces the amount of polluted air breathed in by a small amount – which might make a difference to symptoms in polluted areas like large cities, but not in the middle of the countryside.

        2. KJE

          Most of the transport operators offer transport assistance cards to use if you have health condition which means you that wearing a mask would cause you distress – no GP letter needed – so just get one if you are concerned. It is enforced here as they won’t let you on without a card or a face covering.

          Reply
          1. KJE

            Thanks AhN, I have them for three companies now, but haven’t found one for the person assisting a deaf person – Arriva do a blank one so could probably use that. Stagecoach have one to ask others to remove their face coverings to enable lip reading. I will enjoy using that one.

    1. Tom Welsh

      Key words: “could” and “potential”. If it pans out like SARS and MERS, no one will notice.

      Reply
    2. Steve-R

      Next thing will have to be, everyone fitted with an IV cannula to facilitate the ever growing volume of mandated vaccines to be pumped in.
      On this, the CDC is proposing that the first tranche of lucky people in the USA to receive the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine won’t be those in the most at risk of dying group i.e. self-inflicted ‘metabolic syndrome’ sufferers, but healthy young women in pregnancy.
      Unbelievable!

      Reply
      1. AhNotepad

        With luck the at risk group will die anyway, the vaccines are for the healthy, to stop them being healthy. “We tried to protect them but despite our best efforts they unfortunately died”. The translation is “We have developed a world beating population control, and it’s working”.

        Unbelievable? It worked with Gates’s tetanus vaccine in Kenya.

        Reply
        1. Tish

          AhNotepad: When I was 12 years old I was bitten badly on the arm by a dog and was given 3 lots of tetanus jabs. On the third visit for the last injection I visited a friend afterwards and while I was in her house, a good half hour or so after leaving the surgery, I collapsed. I was not thinking of the vaccine or perturbed by it when I passed out, so nothing at all psychological.

          Reply
      2. Anna M

        I heard Melinda Gates wants to give the vaccine first to black people. Considering what has already been done by Bill Gates in Africa and India, I suspect racism!

        Reply
        1. Martin Back

          They might have a hard time vaccinating Africans. Bill Gates was here recently visiting a clinic in the township of Khayelitsha where his foundation sponsors a clinic. You should have seen the comments from Africans on Twitter. “Whatever you do, don’t let him inject you. He’s trying to cut the African population” was the general tenor of the comments.

          Reply
    3. Anna M

      The election can’t come soon enough. They will destroy the whole world to keep Trump from getting reelected. I wonder if they will dare to release the pig virus or just scare us.

      Reply
      1. AhNotepad

        The story I saw first is it is an avian pig virus H1N1 strain, beloved of Ferguson, he will now be able to generate some ficticious figures under the guise of a model, where “yes, the range is wide. Amnesty International example of torture by keeping people in a state of anxiety.

        Reply
  73. John

    KJE said “ When I lived in Leicester there was a large (ex-Ugandan) Asian population and also a lot of Afro-Caribbeans, so low vit D a possibility if they’ve been staying indoors“. The Asian community in Leicester developed in the 1970’s when Idi Amin expelled them from Uganda with little more than the clothes on their back.They created their own community in Belgrave, where they were when I was living there when a student. There are other southern Asian communities across the eastern part of the city, where the epicentre of the “current” peak is located. In all around 95 languages are spoken in the city, with representatives from the Indian subcontinent, various African countries alongside Eastern European countries. Most of the patients I see are from the subcontinent and a significant number are on vitamin D supplements.

    Reply
  74. Stuart

    I’ve been thinking about this since you posted. The only explanation that I have come up with is ethnicity, That is, the high proportion of Pakistani, Indian and Bangladeshi heritage citizens in England and Wales . I’m guessing that people from the Indian sub- continent are also working as key workers in higher proportions than the rest of Europe, including Scotland and Northern Ireland and therefore more exposed to Covid19. The rest of Europe (again I’m guessing) do not have such a high proportion of Indian sub-continent heritage residents.

    Reply
    1. Anna m

      None of the guesses by people here are believable to me. Yes, perhaps the darker skinned get more covid, but these people are just too young to die from it. Remember, this is not a magical virus. It is a cold virus. Do young people die from colds? No. Do old people die from flu? Yes. Do young people die from flu? Rarely.

      Reply
      1. AhNotepad

        Remember, the figures in Leicester are for cases, ie a result of testing. They are not deaths.

        Reply
        1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

          Remember also, that if you do more testing, you will diagnose more and more people as having COVID who do not (false positives). In fact, with the current sensitivities and specificities, the majority of those told they have COVID, will not have it.

          Reply
          1. Martin Back

            Is it still true that you have a good chance of being negative despite a positive test? I would have thought that Covid infection is so widespread now that the test is quite accurate.

            Some people might not realise that the reliability of the test depends on how prevalent the disease is. To take an example, say 20% of the population has Covid and the test is 95% accurate, i.e. 5% of the results are false positives. Now test 100 people. You will get 20 positives who actually have the virus, plus another 5 who don’t have the virus but are false positives. Out of the 25 positive tests, 20 are real and 5 are false.

            So if you test positive, you have a 20/25 i.e. 80% chance of actually being infected.

            But back in the early days of the pandemic when only 1% was infected, for every 100 you test you would get the five false positives as before, plus the one actually infected, for a total of six positives.

            So if you test positive, you have a 1/6 i.e. 17% chance of actually being infected. Same test, lower chance of being accurate, because of the lower disease prevalence.

            Incidentally, when the first reports of people being re-infected came out, I calculated the chance of getting two false positives in a row. It was very low, but given the many thousands of people being tested, it was statistically probable that the people were in fact never infected but had had two false positive tests.

          2. IMoz

            Of course people need to remember that, so far as genpop is concenred, contracting COVID-19 doesn’t necessary imply that one would have a severe presentation (or, even less likely, die). In fact, the more people contract it, the more it would become patent that it is not as terrible a disease as it was made out (and, IFR would keep approaching 0). The only people who lose out due to a large number of sub- or midly clinical presentations (which is most COVID-19 presentation are) are those whose narratives that shatters.

          3. JDPatten

            What think you, Doc, of this? :

          4. Gary Ogden

            JDPatten: There are too many holes in this sinking ship to save her. I say, jump into the lifeboat and row like hell.

          5. Jeremy May

            Blimey, that’s pretty startling, There are plenty of folk about who wish that tests for other conditions were equally inaccurate.

          6. Anna M

            Oh, thank you. I misunderstood. I thought there was a spike in sickness/death of the young. A spike in cases, and during the summer – I don’t take seriously. We’re having the same problem in the US – it’s a media problem I think.

      2. andy

        Hi Anna: My guess (hypothesis) is that the people who die have gut dysbiosis. There is also a connection with age, pigmentation, vitamin D, nutrition, and gut/brain/lung/immune system homeostasis.
        Plants have a symbiotic relationship with the soil, healthy soils equals healthy plants. Similarly we have a symbiotic relationship with our gut microbiome. All living organisms, animals, plants, and bacteria have an immune system that protects them from harmful external conditions including viruses. Compromised immune system results in dead organism. Primary function of eating should be to have healthy gut bacteria.

        https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0332-7
        “Emerging evidence highlights an important crosstalk between the gut microbiome and the lung (‘gut-lung axis’). Alterations in the gut microbiome or microbiome-derived metabolites may impact on lung immunity in the context of pulmonary diseases. Gut commensals regulate antiviral immunity at the respiratory mucosa through inflammasome activation upon influenza A virus infection.217”

        https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180125140834.htm
        “Until a decade ago, scientists were not aware that bacteria had complex immune systems — ones that could keep up with the pace of evolution in viruses called phages that infect bacteria. That changed with the discovery of what is now the most famous bacterial immune mechanism: CRISPR.”

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6985452/
        “Vitamin D deficiency or supplementation changes the microbiome, and manipulation of bacterial abundance or composition impacts disease manifestation.”

        https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1931312818305237
        “The gut microbiota can be altered by dietary interventions to prevent and treat various diseases. However, the mechanisms by which food products modulate commensals remain largely unknown. We demonstrate that plant-derived exosome-like nanoparticles (ELNs) are taken up by the gut microbiota and contain RNAs that alter microbiome composition and host physiology.”

        Reply
        1. Sasha

          Regarding gut microbiome-lung axis, it once again shows to me the wisdom of TCM where Lungs and Large Intestine are paired organs (the yin-yang pair) and have a very close relationship. How people more than 2 thousands years ago could come up with these correlations is mind boggling. Interestingly enough, Heart and Small Intestine are another yin-yang pair. Maybe one day modern science will discover the link between hearth health and digestive system.

          Reply
          1. Gary Ogden

            Sasha: Two thousand years ago people were just as smart as people today, probably smarter, considering the rubbish which passes for truth today.

          2. Jerome Savage

            Gary – theres nothing wrong with your mental agility. Your acerbic wit can be a welcome relief from what Dr K calls the “mummified prose” that permeates medical missals.

          3. andy

            Si Sasha, modern technology has discovered the connection between heart health and digestive system, the next step is to develop pharmaceuticals.
            Things make more sense when the digestive system is viewed as a personal internal compost bin where beneficial microbial metabolites are produced. These metabolites can enter the bloodstream and interact with cells in many organs. If a metabolite affects the brain it is called the gut/brain axis, there are numerous interactions. What happens in that compost bin will determine our health status.

            https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29895255/
            GUT Microbiome-GUT Dysbiosis-Arterial Hypertension: New Horizons
            “Gut microbiota contributes to blood pressure homeostasis and the pathogenesis of arterial hypertension through production, modification, and degradation of a variety of microbial-derived bioactive metabolites.”

            https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-019-0074-5
            Demystifying the manipulation of host immunity, metabolism, and extraintestinal tumors by the gut microbiome

    2. Stuart

      Correction to my previous post where I said “England and Wales”. This should have been only England as there was no spike in deaths in this age group as Dr K made clear. Wales has only 2.6% of the population with Asian ethnicity. Also type 2 diabetes is statistically higher among those from an Indian sub-continent background.

      • Type 2 diabetes is up to six times more common in people of South Asian descent and up to three times more common among people of African and African-Caribbean origin.
      • According to the Health Survey for England 2004, doctor-diagnosed diabetes is almost four times as prevalent in Bangladeshi men, and almost three times as prevalent in Pakistani and Indian men compared with men in the general population.
      • Among women, diabetes is more than five times as likely among Pakistani women, at least three times as likely in Bangladeshi and Black Caribbean women, and two-and-a-half times as likely in Indian women, compared with women in the general population.

      Click to access diabetes_in_the_uk_2010.pdf

      Reply
      1. Sasha

        I am surprised to see Indians scoring lower than Pakistanis and Bangladeshis as Hindus have more dietary restrictions than Muslims, at least restrictions that may lead to T2D.

        Reply
  75. Terry Wright

    we chanted much about “protect the elderly”; however treating them as a cherished hyacinth bulb; and locking them in isolation and depriving them of family; seems to have certain drawbacks https://twitter.com/zoeharcombe/status/1278272001958916096

    It reminds me of the comment: “dying with a low cholesterol is not a successful outcome”

    there are many further anecdotes https://twitter.com/14freethinking/status/1278273670385938432

    maybe the elderly respond to human kindness and familiar family and friends: gosh. Maybe they would tell you to piss off it you wanted to lock them up and isolate them.

    Reply
  76. Tish

    This may sound silly (they don’t call me Tish-tosh for nothing) but I’m wondering if it could be a little contributory factor in men dying more often than women from Covid:

    When we have infections our appetites tend to reduce. Digestion takes energy which is needed to fight the virus or whatever.

    Women, at least among the older age group, still tend to be responsible for the meals.

    A good appetite can seem a sign of health. We women like to see our men well fed.

    Do we women encourage men to eat more than they want or should when they are ill – especially when gastrointestinal symptoms are involved? (Gastrointestinal symptoms are now recognised as being common with Covid.)

    (Many of us avoid excess carbohydrates but a spoonful of good honey when we are ill can give some energy quickly whilst requiring very little digestion?)

    Reply
    1. AhNotepad

      I think women are more robust. This starts right from birth, boys tend to die more than girls (or they did before medicine started interfering. This goes all through the ages as far as I can see, and women outlive men in general. Might be the higher cholesterol, or the cholesterol is a proxy indicator for something else.

      Reply
      1. Tom Welsh

        From an evolutionary point of view, women are much more indispensable. The entire future of the species (or the group) depends entirely on having enough children of high enough quality, and raising them to adulthood. Having a child is a major enterprise, taking at least 9 months pregnancy plus at least 12 years or so of child raising. A woman is a major, extremely valuable capital asset for any human group.

        Comparatively speaking, men are disposable. Their role in engendering the next generation can be minimal (very), and moreover in times of threat and danger more male babies tend to be born.

        So it wouldn’t be surprising if women had evovled a greater bias towards health and long life, while men swung rather more towards strength, speed, decisiveness and violence.

        Reply
        1. ShirleyKate

          Yes Tom, we’re indispensable in those child-bearing and raising years. After that we’re of no further use and can be dispensed with. I sure know that feeling!

          Reply
          1. Tom Welsh

            Be fair, ShirleyKate – I said nothing like that at all. All the women in my life who have reached 70, 80 and 90 have remained indispensable and much loved as well as very supportive.

            I was focusing on the Stone Age, when the key thing was to stay alive. And I was talking from a scientific viewpoint.

        2. Anna M

          Tom,

          I don’t think you got it quite right. Men not only provide a lot to the raising of a child, it is absolutely essential for a woman to have at least one other adult contributing. Women and children without husbands before the modern era were charity cases. Where I think women get their edge is in longevity because they are grandmothers. Even today, the difference in the involvement of women versus men in the lives of their grown children and grandchildren is huge. And if a mother dies, grandmothers will often take over. Men do this too, but to a much smaller extent.

          Reply
        3. Tish

          Men have the higher rate of metabolism.
          Compare the shrew with its very high metabolic rate with the Greenland shark and its very low rate:

          Shrew – very lucky to live 2 years
          Greenland shark – might live 500 years (could be rather a boring life though?)

          Reply
          1. andy

            Hi Tish: re why men with covid have higher death rates than women with covid?
            Answer; nothing has changed, men typically died faster than women. Looking for answers in the wrong direction. My suspicion is the differences in hormones, gut microbiome, smoking, drinking, and other factors. The usual suspects.

        4. ShirleyKate

          I know you didn’t say that Tom, I was merely pointing out the reality of many women’s experience. And, to be honest, exaggerating it a bit! I too have a supporting family for which (whom?) I’m grateful.

          Reply
  77. Charles Gale

    Dr. John H – perspex sheets.

    That’s correct. Here’s part of pathologist Dr. John Lee’s quote:

    “…you could do the same study, if you wanted to, on supermarket cashiers because all day, every day, they’ve been sitting there…after a while they had little sheets of perspex between them and the customers – do you really think the little sheets of perspex are going to stop viruses flooding around? I mean, honestly, pull the other one! What is it all about? This is not science…”

    He was good on social distancing/virus particles (17 mins):

    “…not credible…some of those are big droplets, some of them little droplets but the fact is big droplets will fall to the floor, they’ll dry out, they’ll turn into a flake, somebody else will walk past, they’ll turn into a dust mote and go into the atmosphere, you’ll breathe them in…the idea that walking 2m behind someone in a supermarket you’re not breathing the same air as they are and you’re not breathing the same particles is total bunkum…I mean, who could possibly believe that?”

    Reply
    1. gazzer69

      “Who could possibly believe that?”

      Seemingly most of the population of the UK! Over in America, there are seeds of a growing rebellion against the lies and bullsh*t being put out by Government and Covid control freaks, Dr Pam Popper (a voice of reason by any standards) has regularly updated and de-bunked many of the myths and lies that are being told to us, has just released this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtqf0Cl86QY

      When will someone in the UK, with knowledge and authority step up to the mark and tell the truth, the whole truth………..etc…?

      Reply
    2. David Bailey

      I wonder if anyone has examined the statistics for COVID among supermarket employees. Most don’t wear masks, and are happy to chat with customers, and don’t seem overly cautious about maintaining 2 meter separation. Since they meet so many people, they should be sitting ducks, yet I have asked assistants twice if a lot of people were off with the illness, and both times the reply was that not one of their colleagues has become ill.

      I think vast numbers of people consider the whole lockdown thing to be a total waste of time.

      Reply
      1. Dr. John H

        I asked at 2 markets. No one has gotten sick. A Natural Grocer employee told me he talked to the regional manager and no reports of sickness.

        Reply
      2. Anna M

        David,

        This reminds me of the utter inconsistency of the precautions in various places. Here in the US, masks are required in only some places and that only recently, whereas store employees almost all wear them.
        My favorite inconsistency was where in New York, You were allowed in the water but not on the sand, and in Los Angeles, you were allowed on the beach but not in the water.
        The longer this goes on, the more I find it to be a giant psyops.

        Reply
  78. Mike Smith

    Hmmm, this video really made me wonder about the whole COVID19 experiment – agendas are definitely at play. Found it on Parler, the new free speech platform.

    Reply
  79. Bob Dobbs

    As mentioned a dozen times already PCR testing can produce any results you like. Its inventor specifically states PCR is not suitable for viral diagnosis and every piece of equipment being used to sequence or amplify says “Research Use Only. Not for Diagnosis” on the label. How we continue the testing charade with those facts in place in beyond me.

    Reply
    1. Fergus Glencross

      Hi Bob, Your facts arent facts. We have used pcr techniques to diagnose many diseases over many years now. Eg Down syndrome, Turner syndrome etc. Our machines do not have research only stamped on them.

      Reply
      1. Steve-R

        Is there not a difference between looking for RNA from a virus by using reverse transcriptase to ‘create’ DNA which you then ‘amplify’ using PCR, or taking existing DNA and ‘amplifying’ it to match it to a known variation in genes typical of a particular syndrome.

        Reply
      2. Tom Welsh

        Thanks for your authoritative opinion, Fergus. It’s always very much appreciated when an experienced practitioner gives us the benefit of his experience.

        When you say that “We have used pcr techniques to diagnose many diseases over many years now” and “Our machines do not have research only stamped on them”, could you enlighten us as to who “We” are?

        Reply
  80. Nick Turner

    The preliminary hearing for Simon Dolan’s challenge to the Government lockdown took place, via video link, at the High Court yesterday. A rolling update was given by Joshua Rosenberg and can be seen on Twitter at:

    htt*ps://twitter.com/joshuarozenberg?lang=en

    I am unsure as to how much of this comment page the full link would take up – you will need to delete the star in htt*ps for it to work.

    Simon Dolan posted the following on the Crowdfunding site after the case:

    “Just a quick update. Our skeleton case was heard today at the High Court with our barristers laying out our arguments and the Govt’s barristers countering.

    The Judge, who described the case as “extremely important” has reserved judgement and will deliver his verdict early next week. This verdict will determine whether we can move forward to the full hearing which would likely be very soon after.

    We are feeling quietly confident.”

    The latest statistics for lockdown deaths (Covid-19 and normal) can be found on the ONS (Office for National Statistics) website. Search for “Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 19 June 2020” and turn to the chart in Section 3, or view this reproduction from the Daily Mail:

    Although the report states that the chart is ‘based on date a death was registered rather than occurred’, it is clear that nothing out of the ordinary was happening until on or about the first day of lockdown, 24th March. There is a strong case for cause and effect here because the sudden, rather than exponential, increase in deaths looks almost contrived.

    A further ONS comment on the chart states ‘A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Because pneumonia may be a consequence of COVID-19, deaths where both were mentioned have been counted only in the COVID-19 category.’ That would imply that the actual Covid-19 deaths could be much lower, making the shape of the curve even more artificial. At the very least it would suggest a much higher number of deaths due to lockdown. And what happened to give an instantaneous reversal in the slope of the curve on or about 16th April? I won’t speculate on that.

    Now that the line for this year is back to the average for the last five years, the ‘pandemic’ must be over, making the current obsession with controlling outbreaks unnecessary

    Reply
    1. Tom Welsh

      If the court should rule, at some time in the future, that the lockdown was always unlawful – what practical good would that do?

      The lockdown has already happened and been enforced. many people have been punished for defying it.

      Will there be a guarantee that nothing similar can happen in future?

      Will those responsible for the abuse of power face punishment?

      Reply
      1. KJE

        With any justice, if declared unlawful, all those businesses who have lost income should be compensated – preferably out of the personal pockets of the politicians who made it happen.

        Reply
        1. Tom Welsh

          That would be nice and just, KJE. Unfortunately the politicians’ resources would be exhausted long before even one thousandth of the harm they caused had been restored.

          Reply
        2. AhNotepad.

          KJE, good idea for the smaller firms, but the big corporates with their fingers in the GAVI, WHO and CEPI pies and their rslickers will be first with their snouts in the trough, even though they were the ones that caused it.

          Reply
  81. Gary Ogden

    Had a lovely hike today, again along the South Fork of the Kings River. About 40% of the hikers wearing masks. Terrible idea, climbing at altitude we need so much more oxygen. Even two backpackers masked. This is insanity. Carrying 50 pounds on your back and hiking up steep mountain trails. America, we are in trouble. At least we have 34% who would refuse the ‘Rona vaccine under any circumstances. That is enough to stop any mandate.

    Reply
      1. Gary Ogden

        Sasha: They cannot. The majority are in defiance. Nothing stupider than going to the forest for healing and doing something so unhealthy. One group of three we saw on the trail were just completing a 6-day, 76 mile loop. They were tired, but beautifully suntanned and radiant with health. I bet none of them even owns one of those stupid masks.

        Reply
        1. Sasha

          Gary: I meant mandatory jabs. You were saying 34% against is a good insurance against mandatory jabs…

          Reply
    1. Tony McKenna

      I am barefoot whenever possible and all my footwear is “barefoot”. I used to have a bad back. Now I don’t.

      Reply
  82. Anna M

    Martin Back,

    You are assuming that the virus is continuing to spread at the springtime pace. That is unlikely. That is not how epidemics operate and not how cold and flu viruses manifest. There is a bell curve and we have been on the downslope for a good while.
    See the post above mine!

    Reply
    1. Steve-R

      SARS-CoV-2 is neither a ‘flu virus nor a cold virus. As Malcolm has pointed out it is a novel virus that kills and damages in novel ways.
      Two Common Cold causing viruses are coronaviruses, that doesn’t mean that coronaviruses are Cold viruses in much the same way that humans are mammals but mammals aren’t humans.
      It is a category error you are persisting in making.

      Reply
      1. Tom Welsh

        Anna M understated her case. She wrote “That is not how epidemics operate and not how cold and flu viruses manifest”. The second part of her sentence is a subset of the first part (“That is not how epidemics operate”).

        Farr’s Law states unequivocally that ALL epidemics follow a normal curve. ANN M cited cold and flu as familiar examples, not as an exhaustive list of infectious diseases.

        View at Medium.com

        Reply
  83. Charles Gale

    Just a bit more on supermarkets, perspex screens etc…

    …Morrisons, a UK supermarket chain, are opening their cafes today. I’m on their emailing list and here’s their reassurance to the visiting public:

    “And to keep you safe, we have new measures including sanitiser stations, panels separating tables and colleagues wearing visors, as well as other steps such as checkout screens and signs to ensure social distancing is maintained”.

    I truly don’t get this! Why now with lockdown restrictions lifting? Even if any of this made a difference and/or was based on science, these measures would have made some/more sense months ago when lockdown was introduced.

    Psy-ops indeed! Keep them scared. And money of course.

    Reply
    1. Tom Welsh

      Simple enough. As with Facebook, Twitter, etc. – just don’t go there. Leave them alone to enjoy their ridiculous paraphernalia.

      Reply
  84. Steve-R

    Just read Dr Malcolm’s latest over at RT.
    How depressing that none of the UK based media mouthpieces will entertain such an important discussion.
    I tried to point out, in a comment in the Guardian, this state of affairs as regards lies put into the public sphere by contributors to medical journals to push business and political agendas, but the comment was moderated.
    Another case of Humbert Wolfe’s ‘British Journalist’?

    Reply
      1. Tom Welsh

        Naturally! They are quite sure that they are always right; so anyone who disagrees with them must be wrong. And isn’t it antisocial to publish wrong opinions?

        Reply
  85. Tom Welsh

    The BBC, the other commercial TV channels, and all the mainstream papers and magazines are essentially lying to us about anything that’s important. They disguise this consistent lying by dressing themselves up with truthful reporting about trivia and gossip.

    There is only one solution: rely entirely on a judicious selection of blogs and “alternative” news sites. The smaller they are the better, as they may be able to fly under the radar. Dr Kendrick’s blog is a perfect example – no lies, no axe to grind, and very uninhibited discussion in the comments.

    Reply
    1. Jerome Savage

      Tom – in a world with information overload I trust this site & look forward to it as well thought out and based on reason.

      Reply
  86. KidPsych

    Wow :Australia locks down high-rise apartments as virus cases spike

    Thousands of residents in several high-rise apartments in Melbourne went into lockdown for at least five days Saturday, as officials struggle to control a virus outbreak in Australia’s second biggest city.

    Hundreds of police were deployed to enforce the lockdown of nine public housing towers, as the country recorded its biggest daily increase of coronavirus cases in months.

    https://news.yahoo.com/australia-locks-down-high-rise-apartments-virus-cases-100139655.html

    Reply
    1. David Bailey

      Are they talking about actual cases of COVID-19 or positive tests? If it is the latter, they should call it that, and point out that as the number of tests increases, so will the number of ‘cases’

      Reply
      1. Tom Welsh

        We ought to stop referring to “tests” (at least as far as PCR is concerned), and call it what it is: a way of manufacturing DNA in substantial quantities.

        All that PCR does, essentially, is to induce DNA to replicated. At every stage the amount of DNA doubles. After some arbitrarily chosen number of cycles (typically 37-40), the amount of resulting DNA is measured; and if it is above a certain level, a positive result is returned.

        Consider the implications. First and foremost, it is impossible to carry out the procedure at all unless at least one strand of the relevant DNA is present. As we know, zero doubled any number of times is zero. So it’s never a question of whether SARS-COV-2 is present in the sample, but just how much of it there is.

        Second, 40 cycles of doubling increases the amount of DNA by about 1 trillion times. At every single cycle there is the potential for error.

        Moreover, how is it decided how many cycles are to be run and what should be the critical amount of DNA found after that number of cycles? It’s entirely arbitrary.

        When the inventor of a procedure such as PCR, who was given the Nobel Prize for the invention, warns that it should never be used as a diagnostic test, do you think we should take his word for it?

        So why do doctors and scientists eveyrwhere use PCR as a diagnostic technique? Because they have nothing better. Simply put, there is no reliable and accurate method known to man of saying whether a given person is infected with SARS-COV-2, and if so how seriously.

        Reply
        1. KJE

          But we don’t actually know that the bit of SARS-COV-2 RNA converted to DNA that is being tested for is actually novel – or just that no one had previously looked for it, is the cause of the covid-19 disease, is or is not shared with other viruses, and if it is the cause (not the result) of the disease, how much of it is needed to cause disease. It’s still a rubbish test, bu there is nothing else and no reason to create a better one in case it invalidates all the rt-PCR test results

          Reply
          1. AhNotepad

            It doesn’t matter what’s being tested for, just as long you can say you’ve done a test and have enough positives to inflict another house arrest session.

          2. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

            If the prevalence of COVID is one in two thousand (a working estimate), and your test has a false positive rate of three per cent (which may be an underestimate). If you test ten thousand people, you will end up with three hundred false positive cases, and five true positives. A ratio of 60 to 1 false positive to true positive.

            If you have track and trace, you will then identify another six hundred people (assuming each ‘positive’ case was in contact with ten other people) who are at risk of COVID, from your false positive case. Suddenly, you have a new outbreak on your hands and you lock down an entire city.

            Extending this thought a little further, even if COVID is completely gone, if we test two hundred thousand people a week (current UK plan) we will ‘detect’ six thousand new cases each week. This could become the ever lasting epidemic – kept going by a horribly inaccurate test.

          3. James DownUnder

            KJE – You’ve ‘got it in one’. (Aussie expression meaning 110% Right first time.)
            “… in case it invalidates all the rt-PCR test results…” – The foundational data built upon to lockdown countries & regions, destroy economies and enshrine into power some doubtful characters.

        2. AhNotepad.

          Tom, thanks for that explanation. I reached for my calculator to see what the numbers would look like. 2^37 is 0.137X10^12, 2^40 is 1.1×10^12, or about 8 times bigger. That gives a Ferguson spread to interpret if someone has a virus. I don’t call that accurate. No wonder there are false positives, and what or where is the control?

          Reply
          1. IMoz

            calculations of powers on computers using floating point always scare me… google “Kahan Challenge” and “Rump’s Royal Pain” (in the latter, the computer doesn’t even get the sign correct!)

        3. Bart Lakeman

          Near Geneva they used a SARS-CoV2 antibody test which proofs that Covid19 has the same morbidity and mortality as a seasonal flu. Yet the PCR test with a very high false postive rate is necessary to uphld Fergunson’s predictions and the Govt’ plans.

          Reply
    2. Jerome Savage

      Dr K – Only concern I hav with that theory is that testing in some countries eg New Zealand at various times have produced zero infections. And I might expect that they would hav carried out significant number of tests.

      Reply
  87. Gary Ogden

    You can’t make this stuff up: Kimberley Guilfoyle, the current girlfriend of Trump, Jr. and the head of the re-election finance committee, is the ex-wife California’s reigning miniature dictator, Gavin Newsollini, who has decreed that everyone must walk around looking like a bank robber, and she has tested positive from the fake-aloo ‘Rona test! No symptoms, of course. Both she and DJT, Jr. are “self-isolating.” Needed a laugh this morning, and got one.

    Reply
    1. Jerome Savage

      Gary – tight with it DJ on irish radio earlier announced that the highly trained virologist and health expert and sometime singer Lady Gaga with 40 million subscribers to her Instagram account has praised all her cool fans for doing the right thing & wearing a mask. There was more dribble, stretching credibility Marvel at these multi talented “experts”.

      Reply
      1. Gary Ogden

        Jerome Savage: Terribly disappointing. She is a very talented lady, but I guess a scientifically illiterate sheep.

        Reply
        1. AhNotepad

          Gary, my understanding is she is a globalist, and apparently writhed about on stage chanting “I hate the truth”. A cunning message which many of the sheeple may have latched onto, as you can’t trust those “horrid, stuffy scientists” unless they are the usual pharma lackeys.

          Reply
    2. James DownUnder

      We wonder if she’s getting the same advice about HCQ from (future) Father-in-Law….and Uncle Tony (Fauci)

      Reply
      1. Gary Ogden

        James DownUnder: No telling, but without symptoms, I wouldn’t. According to Dr. Zelenko, zinc is a powerful virus-fighter, as it inhibits the enzyme in the cells which viruses use for replication. HCQ assists in zinc entering cells. The explanation for its effectiveness appears as simple as that. He uses the protocol in the first five days of symptoms (so the patient doesn’t end up in the hospital), before replication has gotten out of hand. He has lost two patients, when the demographics suggested he should have lost eighty.

        Reply
  88. Shane

    Interestingly no fatality at all in Vietnam . They traced thousands of people in Hanoi when a hospital was announced to be epicenter but they all came negative. I like to compare Michigan and Sweden statistics. Earlier this week, my Canadian friend in health professions shut me down when I tried to say that Sweden did really well without lockdown. She said that Sweden was having a huge spike in death rate. She proudly mentioned worldometer as her data source and I could not accept what she said. So, I went to her preferred site and in 5 mins, I was right! Michigan with 10 million people with strict lock down, social distancing, mask etc was at 62000+ cases and 5900+ deaths and Sweden with 11 million people with no lock down was at 62000+ cases and 53000 deaths. So what did we achieve in Michigan with strict lockdown? All I know is that World Economic Forum is touting the greatest financial reset on their website and they needed the perfect excuse for it. Amazing that such a deadly virus but almost every country is making a vaccine (over 219 trials if I am not wrong). Ebola was 13X more fatal but no lockdown world wide. Last fastest vaccine took 4 years but now they will have it here in USA before November. From the beginning , everyone is talking about a vaccine even when no RNA vaccines have been effective so far. Surely, Bill Gates will have his wishes fulfilled by vaccinating everyone but the elites in the world.

    Reply
    1. Jerome Savage

      Shane – you meant “Sweden with 11 million people with no lock down was at 62,000+ cases and 5,300 deaths.”

      Reply
      1. Jaanet Love

        I’m Sure he did.
        Today, July 11 (here) and the score stands at 75,000 positives and 5,500 deceased.
        – How healthy is the Swedish economy? Financial and Social stress levels ? National morale?

        But Michigan is a dangerous place with 75,685 ‘cases’ and 6,285 lost….

        Reply
  89. Gary Ogden

    Sasha: I should add that, except for the entrance station (the public face or a politically correct gesture of the Park Service), not one Park Ranger wears one of those stupid things. It is just such an astonishingly ridiculous thing to do. I’ve been tramping about the woods from a small boy, around 65 years, and I’ve never seen or heard of anything so Kafka-esque.

    Reply
  90. IMoz

    So, riddle me this: masks on the public transport (“to protect you”) where people hardly talk are mandatory, yet in pubs or bars, where people actually do talk and the air gets stale rather quickly and doesn’t change, and people remain in that air longer than the average public transport journey, masks are not mandated…

    Reply
    1. AhNotepad

      Indeed, the idea that a virus is a non-living particle is not the case with Coroni, he is a clever little blighter and knows how to make churches and beaches infection hotspots, while keeping Marks and Spencer stores, and political demonstrations totally disease free.

      Reply
    2. James DownUnder

      IMoz, Talking obviously spreads the virus through and despite whatever measures used to safeguard… such as diligent wearing of (multi-layer surgical) Masks. Here we have a group of protected folk getting a nasty surprise, – Mask TO Mask transmission.
      Forget the pubs and public transport, Houses of Legislature are greater risks.

      https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article244033087.html?fbclid=IwAR2N1E9D2GUgtN-wNVGP5E8GvoyyshVAT6JAuv8iAkTrPwVOElU04SYY4gs

      Reply
      1. AhNotepad

        JDU, no one can know where they picked up a virus, or even if they did, given the unreliability of the tests. The witch hunt continues unabated for someone to blame for spreading by whatever method the imaginative witch-finders-general dream up, then isolating them, causing unknown anguish.

        Reply
      2. KJE

        Even crazier regarding masks on buses: We’ve taken to counting people on buses that pass us when walking (a new version of pub cricket?). Usually it’s 0 or 1, but I won with a score of 5 the other day! So why a mask if you are the only person on a bus (without a card saying you don’t have to wear one)?

        Reply
  91. Steve-R

    Has anyone here found out what section of the SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA the rt-PCR test amplifies? Is it the novel ‘spike’ sequence or a less novel sequence that was easier to detect after reverse transcription?

    And, how does the current test – if there is just one – produce false results? Is it a case of contamination producing false positives and if so how does that occur?

    And how can a false negative occur? Does DNA amplification not occur or does the reverse transcriptase fail to convert ‘real’ viral RNA to DNA or does the amplified DNA fail to ‘bind’?

    I have searched but not yet found anything.

    Reply
      1. AhNotepad

        I’m glad my job is not running PCR tests, looks like a nightmare. One thing I note is the apparent bias that a positive result is acceptable, whatever, but a negative result shouldn’t be taken to mean there is no infection. Sounds a bit dodgy to me.

        Reply
        1. Terry Wright

          “looks like a nightmare.” … oh no, that’s only if you’re trying to be diligent AhNotepad: if you just want to fudge along and go home in the evening, anything goes .. make it all up as you go along ..

          Reply
          1. James DownUnder

            TW, Not ‘fudging’, – The correct term is.. (Scientific) .’Phase-Locking’

      2. Janet Love

        So, not only do we have the same, virulent, deadly virus spreading all over the globe, we use several different markers to ‘test’ for it.
        I’m confounded, – Someone please tell me that the results are the SAME …. Positive patient in the US will test equally positive in every country… Or not.

        Reply
    1. KJE

      AFAIK, different tests look for different “parts” or sequences of the virus. I think there’s a chart somewhere which might say which test looks for what and what its accuracy is.

      Reply
  92. Gary Ogden

    This morning I need chickens to make the cat food, so I went to what has become my favorite store. They had the obligatory “By State Ordinance Face Covering Required for Entry” sign (although our moron-in-cheif has no statutory authority to make such a requirement). I sailed in and was greeted by, “Good morning, welcome to [redacted].” I pranced around getting my stuff and went to the cashier. We had a pleasant, brief chat, and I left. Nobody said a word about the stupid masks. Hooray for the U.S.A! Defiance is alive and well on the day after our birthday.

    Reply
    1. Steve B

      Gary, i admire your defiance but here in the UK i always wear a mask when i go into a shop.
      I hate to see the fear in people’s faces when i approach them maskless
      Maybe its because of my ugly mug, i dunno

      Reply
          1. AhNotepad

            How do you know it’s not some other emotion? It might be hate, aggression, they recognise you so they are pleased to see you etc. I doubt you have any basis for your claim of seeing fear. Are you sure you are not just using it as an excuse to wear a mask, while pretending to be of independent mind?

  93. Bart Lakeman

    A research shows that EU countries with a high flu vaccine uptake are those with a high covid19 mortality: with a clear difference between east and west, both in vaccine uptake and Covid-19 deaths. Which has a statistically significant correlation of 0.7. Of course, correlation is not causation.

    Reply
    1. Bart Lakeman

      EU countries with the highest vaccination uptake rates are those with the highest covid19 mortality. The table below shows a clear difference between east and west Europe, both in vaccine uptake and Covid-19 deaths. Which has a statistically significant correlation of 0.7 (the maximum is 1). Of course, correlation is not causation. Possible reasons for the stark variation in covid19 death-toll are: ecological (high population density and urbanisation), demographic (ageing and multicultural societies), clinical (obesity and chronic disease such as diabetes mellitus), differences in diagnostic practice and recording, and to be considered in broader post-mortem investigation is the flu vaccine
      Country Flu vaccination 65+ per % Covid19 mortality per million
      U. Kingdom 72.6 % 489
      Netherlands 64.0 % 325
      Portugal 64.0% 325
      Ireland 57.6% 301
      Spain 55.6 % 580
      Malta 55.5% 14
      Italy 52.0 % 514
      France 49.7% 414
      Belgium 49.6% 763
      Sweden 49.5% 343
      Luxembourg 37.6% 165
      Finland 47.6% 51
      Denmark 40.8% 92
      Germany 34.8 % 93
      Hungary 26.8% 45
      Croatia 23.0% 23
      Czechia 20.3% 27
      Romania 16.1% 52
      Lithuania 13.4% 20
      Slovakia 13.0% 5
      Slovenia 11.8% 50

      Reply
      1. Steve B

        If you looked at the numbers for, say, UK and Belgium, you would see no link between vaccination and Covid19

        Reply
  94. Janet Love

    Remember back then – before we distracted him – when Dr Kendrick was talking about social disruption as being a cause of the stress / strain which leads to heart attacks ? – He posted some graphs tracking things like Berlin Wall falling, fragmentation of Soviet Russia etc.
    Well, found this gem. The corona virus is terrifying some people to death…
    – Or is it the government propaganda, lockdowns, economic ruin, and deadly “treatment” of the afflicted ?
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87487?xid=nl_mpt_DHE_2020-07-10&eun=g965730d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Headlines%20Top%20Cat%20HeC%20%202020-07-10&utm_term=NL_Daily_DHE_dual-gmail-definition

    Reply
  95. elizabethhart

    Someone sent me this article link: More than one in two COVID-19 patients have damaged hearts: https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2020/07/19/covid-patients-with-damaged-hearts/?

    I’ve also seen comments like this turning up regularly on forums: “…you might want to do some reading on the long term damage Covid is doing to the lungs and heart (among other organs). Yes the mortality rate is low but permanent reduction in Lung function, and Cardiac problems are a worry.”

    Any thoughts on this? Are these problems widespread? Do they mainly affect the elderly and people with existing problems? Were any caused by treatments? Is this a major issue across age groups?

    Reply
    1. elizabethhart

      Here’s another article discussing long-term damage after COVID-19: What are the long-term health risks following COVID-19?: https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/what-are-the-long-term-health-risks-post-covid-19

      Malcolm, I presume this is an area of interest to you?

      Now that death numbers appear to be going down in countries such as England/Wales, I suppose long-term effects are likely to be talked up. I’d be interested to see evidence about this, particularly how many people are affected, ages, comorbidities etc.

      Also, the article linked to includes comments from Professor Louis Irving, Director of Respiratory and Sleep Medicine at the Royal Melbourne Hospital. Professor Irving is a member of the Immunisation Coalition in Australia, which is sponsored by vaccine manufacturers Seqirus/CSL, GlaxoSmithKline, MSD (aka Merck), Pfizer and Sanofi. This wasn’t disclosed in the article. Just thought I’d share for interest…

      Reply

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