Here is a Coronavirus puzzle for you to ponder – A guest article

9th July 2020

A guest article

I was sent this piece on Vitamin D and COVID by a reader of this blog. I thought it was very good and asked them if they minded me posting it. They said fine, but they wish to remain anonymous. Not everyone likes the glare of publicity – with all the attending Trolling and insults that inevitably follow [you should read my in-box sometime].

Season, Latitude, and COVID-19 Severity

Here is a coronavirus puzzle for you to ponder.  For context, let’s look at how many people have died of COVID-19 in the USA (as of mid-June).  Websites give different totals, but it’s around 120,000, or about 360 per million of population.  So how many died in Australia?  102.  How many died in New Zealand?  22.  In both countries, the death rate is 4 per million.  That is an extraordinary contrast!

Wouldn’t public health officials like to know the cause of this difference?  Are the Antipodeans that much better at hand-washing and social distancing than the people of New York, Italy or Great Britain?  Do they share a highly-effective cure kept secret from the rest of the world?  Or is there another reason for the disparity?

Unlike the USA and other countries where the disease has taken a huge toll, the coronavirus arrived in Australia and New Zealand in mid-summer.  Most of the inhabitants of these two countries are descendants of pale-skinned British settlers (and convicts in the case of Australia).  Yet at the same time the death rate in Great Britain, the homeland of their ancestors, is over 600 per million.

This suggests that sunshine, and, specifically, the sunshine vitamin, are responsible for the difference.  If you look at the death rates throughout the world, it becomes apparent that countries in the southern hemisphere fared much better than countries north of the equator.

Actually, the division between countries with high death rates and low death rates is about the 37th parallel north.  According to Wikipedia, the 37th parallel is the dividing line between greater than average and less than average sun exposure.

So it appears that people living south of the equator, and south of the 37th parallel north, experienced, in general, higher levels of sun exposure and lower death rates from the coronavirus than those in the northern hemisphere north of the of the 37th parallel.

This explains the very low death rates observed in Africa. Many experts have forecast that the coronavirus would take a heavy toll in Africa because of poor healthcare infrastructure in much of the continent.  Yet this has not happened.  For example, death rates in Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Ivory Coast, Togo, South Sudan, Niger and Burkina Faso are between 2 and 3 per million.

Virtually all of the continent is south of the 37th parallel north and sub-Saharan Africa is close to the Equator.  It could be argued that the low death rate is an artifact of poor record keeping, but reasonably good data about another virus, Ebola, reached world attention, so high death rates from coronavirus would likely be evident.

The same is true in the Far East.  Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Sri Lanka are near the equator and have coronavirus death rates per million of 8, 4, 4, and 0.5.  But this pattern breaks down when one looks at that most equatorial of nations, Ecuador.

Here the reported coronavirus death rate is about 223 per million.  Other major countries of the South American continent, Brazil, Peru, Chile and Bolivia, have per million death rates of 208, 208, 176, and 54, which is quite a contrast to those seen in Africa and Southeast Asia.  The disparity may arise from a greater susceptibility to the coronavirus among people with indigenous ancestry.

Support for this idea comes from the death rates in Argentina and Uruguay, which are 19 and 7, per million, respectively.  Unlike the rest of South America, the populations of these two countries are very largely of European ancestry, mostly Spanish and Italian.  Remember that while it was summer in Argentina and Uruguay, at the same time it was winter in Spain and Italy, where COVID-19 death tolls per million were 580 and 571, respectively.

This analysis supports the idea that the virulence of the coronavirus, as measured by death rate, varies inversely with sun exposure.  Where the coronavirus struck during the summertime, in the southern hemisphere, death rates were very low, in very marked contrast to countries in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where the coronavirus struck in mid-winter.  The cause proposed to explain this disparity is Vitamin D levels in the respective populations.   How does that work?

Vitamin D3 is created in the skin by the ultraviolet light in sunlight.  Before the advent of dietary supplements, sunlight was the only significant source of Vitamin D3.  Fatty fish is a natural dietary source. Vitamin D3 is transformed inside the body to calcidiol, 25(OH)D3, which is not a vitamin, but a hormone.

Calcidiol has a half-life in the body of 2 to 3 weeks, so serum levels decline if they are not continually replenished by sun exposure or dietary supplements.   Winters in the higher latitudes diminish sun exposure due to shorter days, lower sun angle (if the sun is lower than 45 degrees in the sky, little UV light makes it through the atmosphere), and the need to bundle up or stay indoors in cold weather.

About 15 years ago it was discovered that Vitamin D is critical to the proper function of the innate immune system.  Broadly, there are two kinds of immunity – innate and acquired.  The body acquires immunity when it creates antibodies in response to infection by a specific pathogen.  This is the principal behind vaccines – to trigger the creation of antibodies.

However, the body also has an innate immune system that responds to the wide range of pathogens to which it is exposed every day.  Recently it has been demonstrated that the innate immune system is the body’s principal defense against another viral disease – influenza.  The annual wintertime outbreaks of influenza are triggered by declining levels of serum vitamin D in the host population.  That is why influenza doesn’t occur in the summer and is very uncommon in the tropics.

For in-depth discussion of innate immunity, Vitamin D3 and influenza, read the paper in Virology Journal titled “On the Epidemiology of Influenza” by John Cannell, et. al., and his earlier paper “Epidemic Influenza and Vitamin D” published in the journal Epidemiology and Infection.  Open access full text of both articles can be found on the internet on PubMed.

However, the COVID-19 coronavirus is not influenza, so the role of innate immunity and Vitamin D in the incidence and virulence of this disease must be established.  Given the very recent emergence of COVID-19, it is understandable that not very much research on the role of Vitamin D has been published.

However, one key paper has come out, which has been summarized in the website  The data are observational and the population of patients was 212, but the results are statistically significant.  People with adequate levels of serum Vitamin D in their blood experienced mild bouts of COVID-19, while those with inadequate levels suffered ordinary, severe or critical cases.  The chart in the article illustrates these data.

The results of this study are exactly consistent with the idea that sun exposure is inversely correlated with the virulence of COVID-19.  When serum levels of Vitamin D are high, the disease is mild.  When they are low, the disease is severe.   Which then leads one to ask what are the specific effects of Vitamin D that reduce the severity of COVID-19 infection?

There are at least two.  Severe cases can be complicated by what is called a “cytokine storm.”  This is a severe over-reaction of the immune system that can be fatal.  Vitamin D is known to prevent this condition (see the above-referenced articles by John Cannell).  A second effect is related to the recent discovery that COVID-19 attacks blood vessels, in particular, the endothelium, which is the internal lining of vessels, causing widespread clotting1.

Research published in 2015 showed that Vitamin D3,  in the form that is created in the skin by UV light or taken as a dietary supplement, has a direct, protective effect on the endothelium 2 Because Vitamin D3 lasts in the body only a day or so before it is processed into calcidiol, one needs a daily dose of sunshine or supplement to maintain the protective effect on blood vessels.  It should be underscored that sunscreen blocks UV rays from reaching the skin and therefore diminishes the formation of Vitamin D.  The skin pigment melanin is a natural sun screen and has a similar effect.

What does this mean for people who want to protect themselves from the malign effects of COVID-19?  Vitamin D3 is not some untested off-label prescription drug or sketchy supplement: it is an essential hormone naturally produced in the human body by sunlight on the skin.

With enough sun, one’s body makes all that is necessary to counteract the virus.  But modern lifestyles can make it impossible for many people to get sufficient daily sun exposure in the summer, and during Minnesota winters it is physically impossible because the sun is too low in the sky, not to mention that it is too cold to take off your clothes.

Therefore, one needs a program of supplementation with Vitamin D3, which is readily available over the counter.  The question, of course, is how much.  Grassrootshealth has devoted considerable study to finding the answer, a good discussion of which can be found here 3 The coronavirus statistics I used are from the site Worldometers 4





324 thoughts on “Here is a Coronavirus puzzle for you to ponder – A guest article

  1. kiwistonewall (Ross Jackson)

    And now that winter has arrived, covid19 is peaking strongly in Australia, esp. in Victoria, the most southern, least Vit D3, of the major states. I’m in NZ, and we were able to mostly quarantine our country. Hopefully we can control it here.

  2. H Gebels

    Hi, Sally, som good room reading for you.

    On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 at 6:47 pm Dr. Malcolm Kendrick wrote:

    > Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: “9th July 2020 A guest article I was sent > this piece on Vitamin D and COVID by a reader of this blog. I thought it > was very good and asked them if they minded me posting it. They said fine, > but they wish to remain anonymous. Not everyone likes the gl” >

  3. Jeremy may

    Article numbers 2 and 3 seem to be duplicated. I’ve seen 1000iu as a suitable dose of d3. Does that still stand.
    Anyhow, an interesting article, thank you.

    1. elliesandiego

      Dr Cannell (articles referenced in the post) recommends 10,000 daily is safe and I personally take 10,000 almost every day (Oregon). At almost 76 I am without pathology and uri’s, I test and levels are between about 70 and 80 with a little seasonal variation.

      1. Máire Lenagh

        I am 68 and am currently taking 8,000 IU daily throughout the year (UK). I have been taking D3 in the range of 5,000-8,000 daily for 10 years + with no ill effects. If I thought I was incubating a virus I would employ the short-term ‘D3 Hammer’ protocol. (A One-time dosage of 50,000 IU or 10,000 IU of vitamin D three times a day for 2 to 3 days.)

      2. Carol Crevier, RN MPH

        I have been following the work of Cicero Coimbra, MD; PhD; an American educated neurologist for a few years. He has been treating MS and many other AI disorders with therapeutic doses of vitamin D (very high in some cases) to break through the vitamin D resistance by titrating the PTH down to the lowest end of normal. He’s been doing this for about 15 years and training a lot of other docs, mostly in SA, but some now also in Portugal, Germany, etc. Only a handful in NA. He reassures the general public that 10,000 IU daily is very safe. If you have any level of curiosity about the benefits of Vitamin D, please look up his work. also the North American Facebook Coimbra Protocol group. Just today, a middle aged woman who two years ago was blinded by MS, reported she is back to her difficult outside 12 hour job.
        I appreciate that Bob was allowed to post here.

    2. Tom Welsh

      (I have no medical or scientific qualifications). Nowadays I mostly see doses of about 8,000 iu per day recommended – liquid capsules of D3.

      As I understand it, that still leaves a large margin of safety – poisonous doses seem to be up in the 100,000s of iu, maintained for some time. (Vitamin A, I believe, may be more dangerous and have a somewhat lower tolerance).

      Of course if a person has been severely deficient, even a sub-optimum dose will improve health slightly.

      We take 8,000 iu daily based on the recommendations of several doctors and scientists – such as the jaminets in their book “Perfect Health Diet”.

      I also believe that D3 should be taken in conjunction with K2, magnesium and A. Instead of Vitamin A supplements, I prefer the Jaminets’ suggestion of 1/4 lb of beef or lamb liver once a week (not more) or the equivalent in dark chocolate and other foods.

      I repeat that I have no qualifications to make dietary recommendations; I am merely passing on what I have spent some time gleaning for myself.

      1. Don

        Upvote for Perfect Health Diet! I found that book right around the time I found The Cholesterol Con by Dr. Kendrick. I’ve been eating that way for almost a year. I feel great and have lost weight without trying. In fact, I eat like a king! I’ve begun to view meat and fat as food and plants as medicine. I recommend the Jaminets’ book and website to any here who haven’t read it. Well worth your time.

  4. Anna

    So if care home residents were supplemented with vitamin D3 (and C and zinc) the high death rate from COVID-19 could have been prevented. Why is this not done routinely instead of ‘flu vaccination which causes immunity interference and leads to more severe cases of COVID-19, higher costs to the NHS, and adverse health consequences for people who are unable to access diagnosis and treatment for other diseases during a pandemic?

    1. anglosvizzera

      Maybe it was decided that the savings made by not having to pay for people in care homes who can’t afford to pay themselves, plus reducing the old age pension burden outweighed the other costs? A deliberate act? I wouldn’t put it past our government to think that way 😦

        1. Don

          Perhaps, but not impossible. “When you’ve eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, is the truth.” Sherlock Holmes.

    2. Tom Welsh

      The correct doses are just as important as the choice of supplements. Linus Pauling once participated in a radio programme to debate his ideas about large doses of Vitamin C, only for his opponent to state on the air that he had tried Pauling’s regime and found it useless. When leaving the studio, the other doctor told Pauling that, of course, he had not taken the “ridiculous” amounts that Pauling recommended!

      And recently we have seen the opposite technique of overdosing used to make hydroxycholoquine look harmful.

      “The dose makes the poison”.

      1. Janet Love

        There is / was four big RCTs going on now, to ‘disprove’ the effectiveness of HCQ.
        Yes, the doses are massive – not far from dangerous – and being given at the wrong time,,,, when in ICU / ventilated ! Suitable time is at symptom-onset, where the normal, Safe dose is appropriate. Around 200mg / day/ One tablet
        I pay $25 for 100 HCQ tabs, doe 5 to 10 days treatment of one per day (plus zinc) Remdisivir is selling for $US15,000 for a 5 day treatment.
        – Follow the money !

        1. Gary Ogden

          Janet Love: As Dr. Kendrick has stated, zinc is absolutely essential along with HCQ. It is zinc which does the work of inhibiting viral replication. HCQ merely helps it more easily enter cells.

  5. Craig E

    I do believe that vitamin D prevents Coronavirus but I think Australia and New Zealand’s low rates were less about vitamin D and more about luck. Both countries vitually shut borders and enforced lockdowns (to varying degrees) before there was substantial community transmission. Being islands certainly helped

    New Zealand has ostensibly eliminated the virus and Australia got locally aquired cases down to very low levels…

    However now, in winter, we have seen a large spike in cases and community transmission in Victoria. Maybe that is vit D related?

    I am anti lockdown. I would prefer protecting the vulnerable and letting the rest of the population keep the economy ticking along. Australia doesn’t seem to have an exit strategy. Mebourne now in strict lockdown for 6 weeks. This implies every time there’s a spike there’ll be a lockdown, further crippling the economy. Not to mention the borders will be (virtually) shut for a very long time with expensive state funded mandatory 14 days quarantine in hotels for those that make it here.

    1. Tom Welsh

      Although we in Britain think of Australia as being sun-drenched (which it usually is), many of the inhabitants have gone to great lengths to avoid getting the benefits in terms of Vitamin D. Such has been the scare about skin cancer that almost everyone wears enveloping clothes, slathers on sunscreen, and even dons broad hats to make sure not a single quantum of sunshine hits their precious white skin.

      1. Jeffrey Dun

        “….and even dons broad hats to make sure not a single quantum of sunshine hits their precious white skin.”

        I must confess that I get a little sick of Brits on this site waxing lyrical about the joys of sun bathing and sneering at those of us from hot climates who avoid the sun.

        I am a fair skinned fair-haired person who was born and raised in tropical North Queensland. I moved south in later life, but still experience very hot summers – last summer we had days of up to 45 degrees centigrade. After an active outdoor life of swimming, cross country running, tennis, etc, my skin now no longer tolerates the sun.

        I visit my dermatologist semi-annually to have things burnt off and cut out of my skin. He told me once that he had a European dermatologist visit his practice to observe a typical day. He said that he had his normal clientele that day: “a succession of old blokes with bad skin”. At the end of the day the visiting dermatologist shook her head and said “why didn’t they just cover up ?”

        That’s a good question. Why didn’t we “just cover up” ? I certainly wish I had covered up decades ago.

        1. Tom Welsh

          I apologize, Jeffrey, for exhibiting my ignorance. And I am very sorry about your own sun-induced ailments. I suppose white-skinned people are at even more of a natural disadvantage in Australia than black mpeople in Britain or other northerly places. No political implications at all from me – just that one should consider one’s constitution and what risks it creates in a given environment.

          It’s so easy, when commenting, to leave out important qualifications. I didn’t mean that people should expose themselves to the sun without limit. Just that they shouldn’t leap to the opposite extreme and treat it like sulphuric acid.

          I have seen video of some Australian scenes where everyone was covered up entirely, and wondered when (if ever) they allow themselves to get a little UV.

          If I had ever lived in Australia, or visited it, I would have a more balanced view.

          1. Miatadon

            I am fair-skinned, for years was cavalier about summer sunlight in northern California where I live. I have had several skin cancers now, and I know I overdid it. For the last few years I have been more careful in the sun, but now, I’m out sans shirt jogging in midday sun. I don’t overdo it, don’t do it every day, but at age 71, would rather err on the side having sufficient Vitamin D as opposed to having a few more skin cancers. Also, there are ointment treatments for basil and squamous that do work in lieu of surgery.

          2. Jeffrey Dun

            “It’s so easy, when commenting, to leave out important qualifications.”

            Thanks for the reply Tom. Yes, you are right about important qualifications. These days people talk about “sensible” or “healthy” sun exposure. I discovered too late that what constitutes “sensible” will depend on one’s skin type and where one lives.

        2. Craig E

          @Tom and @Jeffrey you both have valid points. I live in the ACT and have had my fair share of BCCs removed, but they were probably from the over exposure to sun in my teens (ie burn). That said I don’t eschew the sun (but don’t go to burning point). I think there’s a balance. Having schools mandating hat wearing in August (winter) is absolutely crazy. The kids are only outside for 30-40 minutes! In summer, when it’s nearly 40 degrees….most of us stay in the shade

          1. elizabethhart

            I’m of Irish descent, very fair skin and originally a red-head (alas rather faded now…) Living in Adelaide, Australia, which often has hot dry summers. I religiously cover up while outside regularly for walking and golf.

            Respiratory illnesses are my bete noire, have have had a few cases of pneumonia…I wonder if vitamin D deficiency could have been implicated? I take vitamin D and C supplements daily now, but also wonder if catching some natural sun would be beneficial, but have avoided this in the past as my skin actually burns, had some nasty sunburns as a kid in the 1970s. Nevertheless, I do roll up my sleeves outside occasionally, just for a few minutes, to catch some rays.

            In regards to lack of sun exposure, I remember this being possibly linked to multiple sclerosis. See this article for example, which also includes reference to vitamin D: Past exposure to sun, skin phenotype, and risk of multiple sclerosis: case control study:

            In regards to lockdown in Australia, when this happened originally Australia-wide, imposed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, there were quite draconian rules about distancing and limiting contact with people (i.e. only two people together outside if I recall correctly). I was appalled at this from a political perspective, in particular the inhibiting of freedom of association, and I wrote to State politicians complaining about this. Given my admitted bias and suspicion from investigating vaccination policy and coercive laws, I was highly alarmed that this was the start of setting us up for compulsory vaccination for this newly emerged virus with mysterious origins.

            I also suspected the lockdown was being imposed to cover-up the fact there were so few deaths that could be attributed to the disease here, i.e. to infer that the lockdown would be responsible for the resulting lack of deaths. I also felt there was desperation to scrabble around and look for deaths to add to the low tally to indicate there was any risk here.

            It doesn’t seem like we had a first wave, let alone a second, but I wonder what it means that they have deliberately hindered the progression of the virus? I have absolutely no confidence in the politicians or ‘medical experts’ here. Vaccination policy is mired in conflicts of interest, it seems to me there is definitely an agenda to inhibit the spread of the virus to facilitate implementation of a fast-tracked experimental vaccine.

          2. AhNotepad

            The origin is no longer a mystery, if there wasn’t so much stuff to trawl through, we may have seen it when it was published, in 2010.

            Lockdown appears to have been part of the plan from the start, to isolate people and put them in a state of fear. Then halleluia! The great protectors supply a vaccine to save us all, some people believe this. There are others who believe masks confer benefits. Since they reduce oxygen breathed in by 4 to 5%, (I have measured it) it will increase heart rate, I suppose this is counted as a benefit. Fortunately Gove in the UK says people can use their own common sense about mask wearing. Unfortunately I suspect this is doublespeak for “If you don’t wear them voluntarily, we’ll impose it to keep you scared, sorry to protect you.

            Fauci was, maybe still is, concerned we might get herd immunity, (oh calamity), before the vaccine can be jabbed into victims.

          3. elizabethhart

            AhNotepad, a little while ago, I came across the explanation for where we are now with the sinister imposition of more and more vaccine products. This is the ‘missing link’ that has been a revelation to me in understanding the current oppressive status quo of a rampant vaccine industry supported by academia, doctors, ‘regulators’, politicians, lobby groups, the journal industry and a biased mainstream/corporate media which refuses to critically analyse vaccination policy.

            A presentation by Dr Suzanne Humphries alerted me to the Children’s Vaccine Initiative (CVI), particularly The CVI Strategic Plan – Managing Opportunity and Change: A Vision of Vaccination for the 21st Century, published in 1998 by the CVI’s co-sponsoring agencies i.e. the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Rockefeller Foundation. You can access the pdf of this report via this link:

            The CVI Strategic Plan is essential reading for anyone trying to understand the current hostile situation relevant to vaccination policy, with citizens who dare to question ever-increasing vaccine schedules and vaccine safety and effectiveness being reflexively labelled ‘anti-vaxxers’ and marginalised and shut down.

            The CVI Strategic Plan is the blueprint for the manipulation of the entire international community by a coalition of organisations from the public, non-government and private sectors, apparently working in the best interests of the vaccine industry.

            This is a massive international political scandal, with more and more governments moving towards mandating lucrative vaccine products, e.g. Australia, the United States, Italy, and others, and actively denying citizens the right to question burgeoning vaccine schedules and coercive vaccination policy.

            The current ‘race’ for lucrative coronavirus vaccine products to be pressed upon the entire global population is part of this story…

          4. Gary Ogden

            Thank you, Elizabeth. It is a horror show long in the planning, the greatest evil the world has ever faced. We must fight it with all the legal resources we have. With refusal. With educating the larger public. Not possible to fight it the way wars are normally fought. These fascists have vast numbers of very sophisticated weapons. From one of our founding documents, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or abolish it.” Our government, like the UK government, the Australian government, and surely others, have lost their legitimacy. It is time for we citizens to withdraw our consent to be governed by them. To those with TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome), the problem ain’t Trump. The cabal which has targeted Trump from the beginning is the same cabal which is selling the world population to the medical industry, and it includes both Republicans and Democrats. The war against Trump is a sideshow intended to distract. Rebel we must. Not with arms, but with the only weapon we have: Refusal.

        3. Don

          Try eating more beef tallow and lard, coconut oil, palm oil, avocado oil, olive oil and fish oil, and avoid vegetable oils. I stopped burning when I started eating like this. Also there is a product that is stabilized DHAA, the reduced form of Vitamin C, that works wonders for skin lesions.

        4. barovsky

          I don’t think exposure to the Sun every day means getting roasted! Apparently, 10-15 minutes a day exposure, is sufficient to convert cholesterol in the skin into Vitamin D. And don’t do it at High Noon!

          1. Frederica Huxley

            Actually, you do need to go out around high noon, as UVB rays only penetrate the atmosphere when the sun is over the azimuth – when your shadow is shorter than you are!

          2. Steve B

            I’ve heard that the sun has to be at least at 50 degrees altitude for UVB rays to reach the ground. I’ve only seen this on mercola’s site, i’ve found no other site to confirm this. I the UK, at this time of year the sun is at least 50 degrees between 11 am to 3 pm.To find the angle of the sun at any time in any part of the world try

          3. anglosvizzera

            The ‘rule of thumb’ about the sun’s height for vitamin D production is 45 degrees or more, so “When your shadow is shorter than your height”. Then you don’t need to look it up.

          4. Gary Ogden

            Steve B: I’ve always considered that the height of the sun above the horizon to ensure UVB availability to be 50 degrees, from Dr. Mercola’s article, but one of the references recently linked to here said 45 degrees, so I’m uncertain.

      2. Jennifer

        Tom, I am 72. At 16 I was studying Public Health and Hygiene in Newcastle. ( excellent city for Research in Health Studies). My brilliant biology teacher taught us about the association of vitamin D deficiency and rickets. She used as an example the increase in the disease with young girls coming to our northern climes from the far east, and how their mode of dress (covering most exposed skin) interfered with their need for sun exposure. In their country of origin they had only needed small amounts of exposed skin because they enjoyed far longer hours of sun shine than we experienced. In fact with the short day light hours of our autumn and winter months, supplementation even for us fair skinned beings seems a good idea. I take 5,000iu daily.
        We now understand that people of Asian heritage living in the UK are at particular risk from Covid. It seems a no brainer to me to link that any associated poor endothelial health ( as is the case with covid) with an imperative urgency to provide such people with Vitamin D supplementation. it should be studied, and pretty darned quick….I mean I have had an inkling for at least 56 years!!!

    2. robertL

      The problem with Lockdowns is that it delays the date for when HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) is reached. Delaying the inevitable should provide opportunity to increase the population Immune System – as far as I can tell this very important factor was and still is completely ignored = Evil

  6. benjab4aolcom

    Interesting that elderly people in care homes don’t get much (if any regular sunlight)
    Are they given Vit D3 supplements?

    1. anglosvizzera

      In my experience of people I’ve known who were in care homes, they certainly aren’t given any supplements, vitamin D included, not are they encouraged to go out in the gardens that many of these places have, when it’s a lovely sunny day!!

      1. Tom Welsh

        As most “care” homes are run for profit, residents are probably fed a diet that is heavy on refined carbohydrates, with inadequate protein and almost no animal fat. Not only is it a great deal cheaper – it corresponds to government and medical establishment advice.

        1. robertL

          Tom Welsh,
          So, the “care” homes have a built in excuse for their inexcusable nutritional neglect of their inmates. = Evil!

          1. Tom Welsh

            I can’t help wondering if the support of so many governments for the gospel of “healthy whole grains” has anything to do with the fact that there are now too many people to be fed healthily (with red meat, fish, eggs, dairy and nourishing vegetables).

            It’s far cheaper to produce vast amounts of wheat, rice, oats, etc.

          2. Terry Wright

            I think it would be really kind; if folks who are critical of staff in care homes; could volunteer to do some shifts there and help out; just go visit and see the limitations that the residents have; from previous strokes; or dementia; or whatever; could I suggest that for staff to have half the residents indoors; and others outside; that if an elderly person were to stumble or fall; the staff would be terrified of criticism or retribution; I feel sad that folks can be so easily critical; please go and volunteer in your local home and help out; your contribution would be appreciated; even just be a visitor, and talk to someone who has no visitors.

          3. robertL

            Terry Wright,
            It’s not the staff, they do their best in difficult circumstances with limited resources provided. It is the owners and funders and decision makers who determine the diet of the patients. Clearly there is a need for more money. Who limits the funds available? (government perhaps?) So that the staff are effectively hogtied in what they can achieve = poor diet = chronic non-communicable disease meaning low vit D3 as an example.
            Follow the money or rather the lack of it. The elderly are abandoned by the funders in the twilight of their years.

        2. Lynn Wood

          SPOT ON Tom! Any care home I have visited both in the UK & OZ the food has been, as you say, heavy on the refined carbohydrates with little of anything else including fresh air or exercise for the “inmates”. Any supplements are, frowned upon, especially if they are not “on prescription”. A major effort in the homes is to avoid falls at all cost (more Gold Stars/KPI’s on the charts showing how few falls there have been) by ensuring that the “inmates” do not move around hardly at all and thus very rapidly loose all their mobility and end up falling anyway. This is not to say that I advocate falls for the elderly but would like to see more effort in assisting exercise & mobility. Calcium, Vitamin D3 AND Vitamin K2 are essential to protect bones and prevent ingested calcium ending up in soft tissue and the inside of arteries contributing to heart disease and stroke.

          1. Susanna Psalios

            I find your words offensive. Iwork in aged care and this is certainly not true in the facilities in which I have worked in Melbourne Australia. I am a physiotherapist and have a PhD in Public Health. The residents (if mobile) move around and exercise daily. They are taken out for walks and their diet is superb. Meat, eggs, some vegies and quite a lot of ethnic cuisine too. We have a café and hairdressers and the facilities are clean and aesthetically very pleasing. I am not saying that all are like this but many are. Please do not generalise as I am tired of hearing about ‘old folks locked in rooms’. Nothing could be further from the truth. Vitamin D status is assessed on admission and most are on supplements. In addition, we assess and prevent falls and do not restrict mobility to avoid falls; maybe you don’t know that restraints, including chemical, is against the law in Australia.

          2. AhNotepad

            Suzanna, don’t be offended, that is the risk you have to take if you want free speech. Lynn made a statement about the places she had visited, you even accept in your reply that some are like this. I don’t see Lynn generalised any more than you did. From my understanding, restraints of all sorts are used in the UK, and lack of feeding, since the food is left with the somewhat incapacitated patient, and if they haven’t fed themselves (because they can’t) the food is taken away. This also applies to water. It doesn’t happen in all places.

    2. Anna

      Apparently not, plus if they venture out of doors a care assistant appears and smothers them in sunblock!

  7. AhNotepad

    An interesting article. I am surprised some authorities try to ridicule the benefits of vitamin D, from a medical position, it’s understandable from their “oh so altruistic” commercial interests. Even so, the figures for deaths from the US and UK are notorious for their lack of credibility, and certainly in the US the same cases are counted twice, what they do for the deaths heaven knows.

  8. JohnC

    From my perspective this explains several observations in the Northern Hemisphere:
    1) The ethnicities affected most by the current virus are those with darker skin, many of the patients I see with southern Asian ethnicity have a vitamin D deficiency. The sun, even in summer, is insufficient to create vitamin D.
    2) older white people need longer exposure to sunlight to produce the vitamin D.
    3) people unable to get out or have difficulty mobilising are unlikely to have sufficient exposure to generate vitamin D.
    4) self isolating and shielding has exacerbated this
    5) the virus season is in our winter, when pretty much everyone needs supplements.
    6) here in the U.K. we are fortunate that we can get a vitamin D blood test on the NHS whereas in the USA that has to be bought and thus is unavailable for the poor of all ethnicities.
    7) People from Southern Europe are less likely to go out in the sun
    8) In Sweden the people most affected were Somalian immigrants not affected by any lockdown.

    1. Göran Sjöberg

      “In Sweden the people most affected were Somalian immigrants ”

      How true!

      To see these darks skinned people being cover up more or less completely (for religious reasons) in our beautiful Swedish summer is in my eyes a shame not least for our authorities who embraces “real science”. What a stiff price these poor peoples are now paying for their “ignorance”!

      Myself I am as often as possible working in my garden with a bare chest in the sunshine.

  9. Christine Herbert

    I’ve thought this for a while….vitamin d3 is an important factor in covid mortality and severity. It also explains why so many darker skinned people have suffered more, as they don’t absorb so much D3 naturally and I assume they therefore need a higher supplemental dose.
    Thank you for your blog, it’s the only sensible writing I have seen on the subject.

    1. Terry Wright

      Ruth: absolutely; checking your Brisbane forecast for the next week: I see 22C and full sun each day! Folks should get some midday sun with no sunblocker; don’t burn; just let the cholesterol in your skin be converted to Vit D: (oh, and eat good fats to provide Vit D).

      1. JohnQPublic

        Absolutely correct Terry. McGill University researchers in 2007 outlined the chemistry the human body uses to make functional vitamin D from sunshine and it uses cholesterol made by the body. This makes one wonder if cholesterol lowering statins inhibit the body’s ability to make the functional vitamin D. Also I have read that the supplement vitamin D, cholecalciferol, is fat soluble and so some good fats need to be consumed with the supplement to get properly absorbed into the body.

    1. Tom Welsh

      As far as I can make out, most obesity in the West is due to people complying with government nutritional guidelines. As those amount to “Avoid red meat, eggs, dairy and animal fats, eat lots of ‘healthy whole grains’, and use vegetable oils”, it is easy to see how they could lead to obesity.

    2. James DownUnder

      More than a double whammy,,,, For the US, add the staggering % who are metabolically compromised.
      60% of the U.S. population has chronic disease, nearly 70% are overweight or obese and 90% of Americans are metabolically unhealthy, which means virtually everyone is at risk for Type 2 diabetes and all the chronic diseases associated with insulin resistance.
      Plus eating “vegetable” oils in preference to saturated FATs, = unbalanced Omega 3 to 6 ratios = a ton of inflammation.,

      1. andy

        Hi James; Americans are unhealthy, a covid vaccine would be best solution for everyone. Dietary guidelines and food manufacturing need not change, everything can get back to normal. No need to worry about vitamin D levels.

        1. robertL

          Sorry, somewhat disagree.
          Vaccine would be second best option.
          Best option is to generate a population change to dietary habits, improve immune system, get Healthy!!! I believe we all know how.
          This would make a huge improvement in population health while a vaccine is being developed for those who chose to abdicate their health to the pharma quacks. Of course the money must come out of their own pockets; no free vaccines.

          1. Frederica Huxley

            A vaccine isn’t going to be a panacea – look at the efficacy rates for flu vaccines and the fact that there has yet to be a successful coronavirus vaccine. There still isn’t a vaccine for the common cold, even after decades of research.

          2. andy

            Hi Frederica: my point is that a covid vaccine would be a panacea for protecting the dietary, medical, political, and pharmaceutical status quo.

    1. John

      It was the end of winter, going into spring, when C-19 hit Spain, the time in the year when vitamin D levels are at their lowest if people aren’t supplementing. See the contrast drawn in the article between Europe, and the Argentinian population of largely Spanish/Italian origins, in terms of deaths per million.

    2. JohnC

      Spain, ironically, has a widespread vitamin D deficiency as does Northern Italy. It may be because Spaniards, unlike mad dogs and Englishmen, don’t go out in the midday sun.

      1. andy

        Hi John: I doubt that a Spaniard or any other person with kidney disease and BMI over 30 will get any benefit from exposure to sunlight or from supplements. Obesity (liver connection) and hypertension (kidney problems) are two of the biggest risk factors for death by covid. Both conditions affect vitamin D availability and are independent of latitude.

        Click to access 3325.pdf

        Factors Influencing Vitamin D Status
        “The enzyme 25(OH)D-1α-hydroxylase is responsible for production of the majority of circulating 1,25(OH)2D within the proximal tubules of the kidney. As a result, renal pathology can significantly affect vitamin D status. Chronic kidney disease, defined as structural or functional abnormalities of the kidney that last for at least three months, affects approximately 20 million adults within the U.S. (71). In chronic kidney disease, creatinine clearance is positively correlated with serum 1,25(OH)2D levels (72, 73). With disease progression, declining glomerular filtration rates are associated with a corresponding decrease in 1,25(OH)2D levels, such that levels of 1,25(OH)2D are usually undetectable in end-stage renal disease (74). “

    3. Sue Madden

      Spain and Italy have notoriously low vitamin D levels well into spring – especially in the elderly of course but not only
      I got trapped in Italy on March 7th but was actually pleased as I could see that the UK was not taking any advantage at all of the warning Italy provided them with. We now have the worst mortality rates in europe!!! In Italy masks are obligatory in shops and supermarkets and friends tell me not so in England!!!! Now the UK authorities have opined that vitamin D is useless in the context of Covid !!!but they generously say we should continue to take 10 mcg a day for our bones and muscles!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You really couldn`t make it up!
      I`ve now read many many papers on vit D and the immune system and it horrifies me that in the light of its vital role in innate immunity, in immune modulation (cytokine storm dampening) and endothelial integrity, our authorities put out a statement reeking with bad faith, not only putting people off taking vitamin D but implying it is more potentially toxic than many of our prescription medecines! Their trick is to say there is no evidence that taking vitamin D will prevent infection by Sars CoV2 and that it will cure Covid. So just because no-one has yet designed a massive RCT on the subject we shouldn`t use our brains to see that, on the evidence of the role of vitamin D in immunity, we should not face a pandemic of a nasty respiratory virus with inadequate D levels.
      Prevention is not the point anyway, what we need to do is stop this infection making anyone critically ill. This involves doing all we can to support robust innate immune response and a healthy epithelium – hence aim for OPTIMUM D levels for the WHOLE poulation
      So, let`s go ahead and take the tiny dose that was set because it just prevented rickets nearly a century ago…… please go and read their dishonest comunique`….. it`s beyond belief.
      What can this mean about who is in charge of our health, our public health…..

      1. AhNotepad

        Sue Madden, unfortunately almost all the government advice is contrary to available facts. Masks are not effective and The tests are unreliable as well as being conducted in what amounts to haphazard methods. Hand sanitisers can contain methanol, which can cause many problems, including kidney damage. Social isolation is disastrous for peoples mental well being. The cruise ship which had a large number of elderly passengers showed few suffered from Rona virus, but this seems conveniently forgotten.

        However, I do agree with your comments about vitamin D.

      2. Hilary Wallace

        Well said. It’s not as if Vitamin D were some new drug that hadn’t undergone any testing (oh wait, maybe that is a problem as it would have hit the headlines if it had been). We know through years of research the multi-factorial benefits of Vitamin D – maybe that’s why the body makes its own. Being a freckled redhead, I have always avoided the sun as I am find it extremely uncomfortable in direct sun, but have supplemented with high dose vitamin D for many years now.

        I had wondered if the increased deaths among our BAME population had a link with low Vitamin D and was excited when I read a few articles about it, but has anything come of this theory? It’s almost as if it’s too simple to merit any consideration. If only we had some sensible, intelligent, ‘think-outside-of-the- box’ medical professionals in charge of our healthcare. We need a paradigm shift in thinking!

  10. helenehowes

    I had surgery for a spine repair last week. I had to isolate for two weeks beforehand (this was fine) and got lots of warnings about the possible bad effects of Covid on post-operative patients. I was also told, very firmly, not to take any “supplements” for two weeks before the operation. This means my D levels would have been at their lowest for several years just before going into a risky environment.. As D3 does not appear to have blood-thinning or other properties which might have caused problems, I kept taking these. I take 4000iu* every day and have done for a long time – recommended a while ago by a rheumatologist, the only good advice he had for me..
    It seems that too much of modern medicine is both reactive and not-joined-up..
    *4x the RDA maximum…

    1. Janet Love

      Helen, we’re happy to see you didn’t expire, despite naughtiness in taking Vit D, – and such a Dangerous Dose !

    2. Terry Wright

      well done Helen; doing the opposite of what PHE (public dis-health) recommends; seems the best action. We all hope your surgery went well.

  11. Jeff Cable

    Thank you Malcolm. Thanks also to your anonymous writer. The difficulty in finding sensible debate anywhere appears to be inversely proportionate to the ease of publication these days. I am obliged to your good self for providing a place to go that can be relied upon for disseminating useful information. I can be sure that it has not been put through some government mincing machine and neither is it funded by the pharmaceutical industry nor some other agenda pushing organisation.

    1. robertL

      Hear-hear to this comment – absolutely.
      My favourite site for rational reasonable even-handed medical info and many erudite contributors.

      Thanks Jeff

  12. John Stone

    ‘Why everyone was wrong’ by Beda Stadler (Emeritus Professor of Immunology Bern). This explanation is highly compatible with Vitamin D hypothesis:

    View at

    See also Peter Cobbold (Emeritus Professor of Cell Biology, Liverpool) ‘Twin epidemics or just one?’

    One could conclude that very high levels of incompetence or malice are involved in the way this story had played out, and it could all have easily been averted.

    1. robertL

      Exactly, Precisely

      One could conclude that very high levels of incompetence or malice are involved in the way this story had played out, and it could all have easily been averted.

    2. Janet Love

      “… very high levels of incompetence or malice are involved in the way…”

      Never under-estimate the ingenuity of stupidity. !

    3. Tom Welsh

      “One could conclude that very high levels of incompetence or malice are involved in the way this story had played out…”

      Or both.

      One of the most important (and frightening) implications of the Covid-19 debacle has been the light it casts on the competence of our rulers and leaders. I knew they were mostly innumerate and very ignorant about science. But they also seem utterly deficient in plain ordinary common sense.

  13. Irene Ramsden

    I was tested for covid yesterday. So far, my symptoms have been manageable….not pleasant, but bearable. I take high doses of vit d all year round. I hope I’m going to be okay. I self-isolated for months yet here I am….
    Take very good care everyone.

    1. David Bailey


      I know everyone here wishes you a speedy recovery.

      It would be nice if you stayed in touch to let us know how you progress.

      By ‘tested’ I assume you mean that the test came out positive.

      It would be interesting to know how old you are – a tricky question, I know!

      My advice (as a layman) would be to go on taking the Vitamin D – maybe adding Vitamin C – and to persuade yourself that you are going to be OK – because the placebo effect is so important. One way to do that is to bear in mind that a lot of people here thing these tests may throw up false positives – so you may not even have the dreaded disease!

      1. Brian Williams

        I read recently that Vit C is used up faster by the immune system when fighting disease, and it’s a good idea to take a gram several times a day. Can’t hurt.

      2. Terry Wright

        “a lot of people here thing these tests may throw up false positives – so you may not even have the dreaded disease!”

        indeed David; very good short piece from Dr K in last thread on ratio of false:true positives:

        could be 60 false for every 1 true test that says positive: but it’s the science, you know!! ??

        It is possible to catch respiratory diseases other than this one: particularly if you haven’t been out for a while …… so Irene could well have caught a standard bug; and had a false positive to Rona.

        this article I discovered talks of the BILLIONS of viruses you can trap in 24hrs on a 1 metre square trap; set in the mountains of Spain!!

    2. ellifeld

      Vitamin D is not a cure all, you can still get this virus or the flu. But it will cut down on it’s severity. The key is to keep you level above 50ng/ml (conventional medicine thinks 30 is ok). This is accomplished by most people by taking roughly 7-8K units/ day. The medical world has set an upper limit of 4K but that was a somewhat ridiculous interpretation what is a safe dose.10K was found to be perfectly safe but in the wisdom of medicine they decided to be utterly safe and bring that dose down to 4K. By the way, if you stand in the midday sun where the UVB light is strong enough (sometimes only in the summer in many places), with some clothes off for 20 minutes or so, you’d get roughly 20K units of D. So there’s no reason to think 10K is harmful.

    3. Tom Welsh

      Good luck, Irene! If you possibly can (despite the restrictions) I would suggest getting all the sunshine that’s going. Not much at present, admittedly – if you’re in the UK – but if you keep a lookout, you can zip outdoors when the sun shines near midday. Another slightly edgy piece of advice is to expose as much skin to the noonday sun as possible. (Without being arrested!)

      Until I read the current article, I had not realised how quickly Vitamin D is used up by the body. It seems that it’s important to keep it topped up from day to day if you can.

      Failing that, I take 8,000 iu of D3 as liquid capsules (2 capsules) daily, with K2, magnesium and Vitamin C and some fatty food (a small piece of cheese, for instance). (I take about 10 grams of C daily in two well-spaced drinks of water – too much too suddenly and you should stay near a loo!)

    4. Peggy Sue

      Many good wishes for a speedy recovery Irene. I always swear by regular doses of Vitamin C with zinc, and echinacea when I have a virus. Probably useless but can’t hurt and if I feel it’s doing me good then maybe it is. I’m convinced it helps me recover more quickly.
      I can’t imagine how it must feel to be suffering after all the months of being so careful.
      Could it be that all these months of avoidance could make us more susceptible when we do start exposing ourselves a little more?

  14. lorrainecleaver7

    I’m completely convinced Vitamin D levels are crucial to how severe the virus is. I’m sure I had Covid in February, caught from a friend with confirmed Covid and with the same symptoms but I wasn’t tested. It felt like a severe cold, was very tired and had strange lung pain in one side. My lack of parathyroids mean I take Alfacalcidol daily and D3/K2. My levels of D are usually as high as I can safely keep them without tipping into hypercalcaemia. I’d also been taking Quercetin and Zinc since January after seeing the Wuhan madness.

    On the other hand, my grandmother, 98, refuses to take anything other than B12 but is a massive sun worshipper so she decided to ignore the lockdown and walked the beach every day. Must get her some supplements for the winter of course.

  15. brainunwashed

    In Dwight D. Eisenhower’s Farewell Address delivered 17 January 1961 he said the following:-

    “Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers. The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present — and is gravely to be regarded.

    Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”

    I think in Jon Rappoport’s blog’s (below) he questions whether COVID 19(84) is even a thing but given that PCR and serological testing is massively unreliable and both Dr K and many many other Dr’s have evidenced the widespread inflating of COVID numbers (Globally) then it is not beyond questioning I believe.

    Remember that the “powers that should not be” tried to tank the world economy with the “green new deal” and the climate change scam that more and more people were wising up to, so what better way to achieve the same things but by using a scary invisible new enemy.
    FEAR = CONTROL as YOU now know from personal everyday experience.

    1. Anthony P

      Brainunwashed, you obviously have an agenda that lies outside the scope of this thread – OK, so it MAY have some relevance but you never present any EVIDENCE to back up your viewpoint.
      Could I suggest you leave it out entirely or if you insist, give some proper scientific backup to your stance. Take your example from the excellent Dr K!

      1. Terry Wright

        Hi Anthony: tell us what distresses you about folks posting interesting suggestions to review; (I find Eisenhower’s comments extraordinarily insightful )

        … as I re-read the post, was it the phrase

        “the climate change scam that more and more people were wising up to,” that caused you such distress?

  16. Richard Smith

    Thanks for your excellent blog and books. I really enjoy reading your stuff.

    I supplement 10,000 iu of cholecalciferol daily but advise anyone doing this to strongly supplement vitamin K too. Largely menaquinone 4 with an important but much smaller amount of menaquinone 7. See Dr. Kate Rheume-Bleue Vitamin K2 and the Calcium Paradox. Also Dr Soram Khalsa The Vitamin D Revolution.

    Please correct the links. There are two copies of #2 and #3 is missing.

    1. Holly Champaign

      Agreed, Rich. That is an excellent book on the subject. Was wondering when someone would mention the need for K2. Of course, if your diet is high in red meat, especially grass-fed red-meat you may not have to worry so much about supplementing with K2.

      Wonder how many people who supplement with D3 but not K2 find they have a high number cardiac calcium score?

      1. Frederica Huxley

        It would be wise to add magnesium when taking vitamin D supplements, along with K2, as it also contributes to the movement of calcium from soft tissue.

  17. alexadobree

    Dr John Campbell has been posting daily on You tube and has been alerting people to the link between severity of Coronavirus symptoms and Vitamin D levels – especially BAME communities in the Northern hemisphere, whose levels are often extremely low, especially if they work indoors – since very early on in the pandemic and can’t understand why this hasn’t been taken up, neither can we who follow his excellent seminars, videos and talks. He and Dr Kendrick are the most trustworthy sources of information I know at the moment as there is so much misinformation and confusion out there!

  18. redsnapperimagesgmailcom

    I am a 66 year old male in reasonably robust health. I have read about D3 possibly being beneficial in reducing severity of CV19 and have been taking a daily supplement of D3 @ 1000IU.
    Your article was very interesting if a little too technical for easy reading and I was unable to ascertain any information as to recommendation or suggestions for D3 supplement dosage levels. Is that because I missed it or is it buried somewhere in the text of one of the papers?

    1. robertL

      Please have your D3 tested and if it’s very low get a doc’s prescription soonest.
      Don’t have doubts and wonderings and if onlys – get tested.
      Depending upon where you live (latitude) you can probably take more than 1000mg

      1. Tom Welsh

        Dosage is very important, so I would not say “1000 mg”. That means 1000 milligrams – equivalent to 40,000 iu.

        I suppose you meant micrograms, usually symbolized by the Greek letter “mu” followed by “g”. It’s perhaps best to write “micrograms” in full, or use iu.

        1. JohnC

          For prescriptions and drug charts micrograms should be written out in full, even though there’s a tendency to write mcg.
          In electronics for capacitors that are measured in microFarads, it is usual to write as uF, using the lower case “u” instead of “mu”.

          1. Gary Ogden

            JohnC: This symbol is also commonly used to represent micrograms: µ. Since the difference between mg and µ is three orders of magnitude, it would certainly be wise to agree on a universal symbol to avoid overdosing! Since it gives nice round numbers, I would advocate using IU for vitamin D (and vitamin A). Selenium, vitamin K, Alpha carotene, Beta carotene, Beta cryptoxanthin, Lycopene, Lutein, and Zeaxanthin content in foods also are listed in micrograms, and Folate by the inscrutable DFE.

    2. Frederica Huxley (cited by Dr Kendrick) provide 6 monthly vitamin D testing. A decade ago I found it nigh impossible to get tested on the NHS and subscribed to this excellent organisation. By testing, your results become part of the cohort for their research.

  19. Dana

    Most of the cases in Australia were from returning passengers off airplanes or off cruise ships. Recently I think 11 new cases in Sydney, NSW, were from returning passengers from overseas. The community spread in Melbourne was blamed on one or two security guards at a quarantine hotel, being intimate with quarantined guests, then bringing the virus home to their families. Hence the lockdown of several social housing towers and certain postcode areas. This time the state premier has called in defence forces to provide security. I’m in sunny Queensland.

  20. James DownUnder

    The indigenous population of South America may be at risk for similar reasons as the Australian Aborigne, poor (Hi-carb/sugary) diet, social isolation, alcoholism etc resulting in high rates of T2Diabetes (which damages the endothelium…) and coronary heart disease that is the highest worldwide of an indigenous population, all wreak metabolic mayhem, depress the immune system and prime them for infections.

  21. James DownUnder

    Speaking of invading infected individuals, the Melbourne hi-rise Public Housing towers are currently incarcerating a similar number of people as a Certain Cruise Ship which brought many infections to our land.
    Everyone on board that ship was tested, so we have a pure gold set of numbers, notably the CMR
    When the …. dust settles, it will be interesting to see what % of that towers became infected, what % needed hospitalizaton and what % were serious enough for ventilation or similar.
    And the Case Mortality Rate.

    1. AhNotepad

      It’s always the visitors that are accused of bring the disease, and if the people from the visited country go to visit the country of the visitor, then it is they who will be accused of bringing the disease. Diseases have travelled the world for centuries, if not millennia. Since the tests are unreliable we have little idea what came from where, despite all the claims.

      1. Eggs ‘n beer

        You’re wrong. The numbers here have been so low that contact and origin tracing have a very high success rate, due to the resources available per case. That’s one reason I think for the successes in Oz and NZ.

        Whilst D definitely has an impact, especially on the death rate if you do get it, other factors particular to these countries are:

        Housing density is very low. One of the epicentres of latest outbreak in Vic are housing blocks, very common in most of the world, very rare downunder. None in Queensland or NT. The poor people here live on quarter acre blocks in the suburbs, the wealthy in apartments in the city, which are a much lower density than local authority blocks.

        Border closures occurred early on in Queensland (deaths 6, two from a cruise ship) and NT (deaths 0), and NZ, together with airport closures while Heathrow was still letting in 100,000 people per day. Virgin Blue (airline) went bust. But the lockdown in QLD was very loose. Restaurants, pubs, clubs, sporting venues and churches closed. WFH was encouraged, but schools remained open for essential workers who couldn’t work from home, as did all other businesses if they could. Essential businesses were defined as all businesses not on the non-essential list (see above). Nobody was house bound unless they tested positive; you could go to work, shop, exercise, travel within 30 miles of your house and have one visitor. Now everything is open again to a large extent, still some SD restrictions on large gatherings. Hopefully the idiots in Vic don’t spoil it for us, but borders are already closed, too late for NSW, for QLD we’ll have to wait and see.

        Population density seems to be a key. Cruise ships, battle ships, prisons, aged care facilities, high density tower blocks (also blamed in HK) and the fatuous WHO study released yesterday showing how three tables in a restaurant caught the virus ostensibly because the patrons were caught in a loop of recycling air from an air conditioner. The waiters didn’t get it. So there seems to be an element of rebreathing, continuous contact, with the virus to catch it.

        1. Tom Welsh

          “You’re wrong”.

          I really like the Australian style of communication. No beating about the bush, no fake courtesy… no PC nonsense. Just say what you think.

          It really does help any factual discussion.

          (And I’m not being sarcastic).

        2. AhNotepad

          Eggs ‘n beer, please explain why there were so few cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Mostly elderly, confined and high density, yet very few cases.

          “You’re wrong” is not a valid or constructive statement, even if you’re right.

          1. Eggs ‘n beer

            I think that 712 cases out of 3711 crew and passengers, 19.2%, isn’t exactly “very low”.

          2. AhNotepad

            Cases? Were the cases rona, or were they just assumed to be rona? Does getting the symptoms make it so much worse than any other virus? How many died? Does that make it much different from flu? Contrast that with the number of people murdered in the last six months by the ill conceived lockdown. Also consider the number of people who are going to die soon because the health services (disease businesses) have been almost closed down.

          3. Janet Love

            He’s right. 😉 – Just omitted the obvious explanation.
            In a nutshell,happy societies are well societies, and vice-versa.

            A ‘ship-load’ of happy, well-nourished, socially supportive & sun-exposed active Seniors is not as likely to have a down-regulated immune system, unlike hi-rise Public Housing “inmates.” A significant % in those Melbourne towers would be BAMEs


      2. Eggs ‘n beer

        You are wrong in your assertions that it’s always the visitors who are accused of bringing the disease. In Australia that assumption was never made. It is, of course, critical to determine if it was brought in by a visitor, otherwise you’ll waste resources on trying to trace back the origin. As 007 would say, “never say always ….” Or something.

        As far as the testing on the Diamond Princess, as James Downunder stated, everyone on board was tested, all 3,711. No assumptions. Even if there are false negatives or positives, it is still the best sample you could get. Deaths? We don’t know, or at least I can’t find any follow up after they were all repatriated. I know that one, maybe two of the six Qld deaths were people repatriated from cruise ships. Deaths at the date of repatriation were 13 for the DP.

        I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make. I’ve made it clear from the start that I’m opposed to lockdowns, I’m fully aware of the depression, loneliness and frustrations that can boil over into violence and suicide (we even saw some of that from videos from the DP) but it’s essential to focus on data. Locking people up is not only bad for psychological health, but seems to propagate the virus too, in certain circumstances.

        As far as deaths from lack of medical treatment, the data, from episodes like doctors’ strikes, shows that this is actually beneficial to the population as a whole.

        There was a similar strike in 1973. After 42 days the funeral directors were begging the doctors to go back to work as the death rate had fallen 50%.

        Followers of Dr. K. will probably be unsurprised by such data.

  22. James DownUnder

    I live in (almost as sunny) Western Australia, Lat. 31 degrees S. Sufficient UV-B for Vit D.
    Our rate of community transmission is very low, as are the “visitor” cases. (Near) Sealed borders works wonders !

    1. Terry Wright

      ” (Near) Sealed borders works wonders !”

      …. it may make people feel better James; but it is like Tiger Horns: if you blow your Tiger Horn in Perth, it will keep the tigers away …. but .. but … we have no tigers in Perth …. see: they work!!

      This Rona was all around the world from .. November last year at least … everyone has been exposed to it: the healthy brush it off: the unhealthy may not do so well. Rona will have been through WA last year; eg the first death in NZ with rona on the death certificate was March; Rona had been circulating in NZ from Nov: but it was summer; these respiratory viruses are seasonal: dark, winter days in northern Europe. The viral waves erupt in late winter.

  23. Paul Paszt

    The majority of residents in Nursing Homes do not get a lot of sun exposure, if any. This very low exposure, hence very low D3, might explain the rash of CV19 outbreaks in nursing homes?

    1. Steve B

      The high death rate in nursing homes was because the authorities dumped lots of (untested) old folk into them, to clear all the hospital beds in preperation for the deluge which never happened
      It would be good to know who ordered this action. I’ll sharpen my pitchfork.

      1. anna m

        Here in the US there were 5 governors who mandates sending covid pos people into nursing homes when there were plenty of hospital beds. They are being looked at. Will there be charges?

          1. Gary Ogden

            Anna M: Yes, there is a Congressional subcommittee investigating these five governors for elderly dumping. Will anything come of it? In this toxic political atmosphere, it surely will get sucked into the meat grinder which passes for political discourse today in the land of the free and home of the brave. For the Trump-haters, anything he does he does for diabolical reasons.

  24. Noreen

    Interesting article.
    I have Multiple Sclerosis and take 1600 IU of vitamin D per day. I used to be on an MS forum and many of us where taking vitamin D at different dosage levels. We also knew it could offer some protection from viruses.

    1. elliesandiego

      If I had MS my dosage would be much much higher. The scare tactics about how dangerous Vit D is are bull.

    2. anglosvizzera

      Noreen, just an aside – have you looked at Professor Chris Exley’s fairly recent research into the role of aluminium and MS? His research has also demonstrated improvement of other conditions related to adverse effects of aluminium in the body by means of drinking high-silicon mineral water (such as, in the UK, Volvic or Fiji water) and it appears there is some evidence that it’s helping some people with MS as well:

      “While it is too early to confirm a role for human exposure to aluminium in the aetiology of multiple sclerosis the significant observations of elevated urinary excretion of aluminium in individuals suffering the disease and excessive accumulation of aluminium in brain tissue post mortem suggest that it cannot be ignored. In addition, burgeoning anecdotal evidence of the benefits of silicon-rich mineral waters in individuals with multiple sclerosis may suggest a future non-invasive therapy.”

      1. Noreen

        I read the link you gave me. Very interesting and I’m now actually drinking the water that Chris Exley used in his research. Thank you again for the information.

        1. anglosvizzera

          I hope you find it beneficial – and I’m sure he would be interested to know any benefits you find from it…or not! He’s very happy to receive emails etc and always replies. 🙂

  25. Jeff

    I think the different COVID death tolls is mainly due to different amounts of spread in each country.
    For instance Australia and New Zealand have halted the spread at a very small number.
    And also to the different ways cause of deaths is attributed.
    I completely agree that vitamin D from sun exposure boosts the immune system though.
    I disagree strongly with the government policy here in Australia.
    Our economy has been decimated with halted international travel and paying millions to not work,
    And we are still hemorrhaging billions playing whack a mole with the virus where ever it pops up.
    It could be years before we have a vaccine, and in the end we may just have to let COVID spread, which will cause the same number of deaths plus all the deaths caused by the decimated economy.

    1. Eggs ‘n beer

      I too disagree with the Oz govt. response. In January my fear was always what the government response would be, rather than the virus itself. And thus it came to pass……

      Having said that, now that we’ve taken all the pain, I think they have to continue the whack-a-mole response otherwise all that pain will have been for naught. If there’s a resurgence the levels of fear most of the population have been indoctrinated with will see a second wave of lockdowns with even more social, fiscal and economic destruction. They have to stay the course, and we have to hope that the virus elsewhere mutates into a clearly less fatal form – depending on vaccines not being a strategy IMO – otherwise I can’t see their exit plan and we’re doomed to a bubble existence for the foreseeable future. Could be worse places to be isolated, though.

  26. Robert Dyson

    I don’t find it a puzzle. I was influenced by the work of the Garland brothers many years ago. For many years I have made sure that my vitamin D status is good through food, sun & supplement (I use 4,000 IU D3 plus K2 a day). I have found that I don’t even get a bad cold anymore. I note transient infections but they never take over, I just feel a bit unwell for a day. Just like the huge change to consumption of processed carbs & sugar that has destroyed people’s health, we have the move to indoor work and vehicle transport instead of outdoor work and walking that is also destroying people’s health.

  27. ellifeld

    Yes, I believe this article hits the nail on the head. And no, even with a vaccine, vitamin D will prove to be more effective with little or no downside, unlike a vaccine. Unfortunately there’s little profit in vitamin D, and since there are several pharmaceutical companies spending millions to get their vaccine on the market, that’s all we’re going to hear about. After all, the pharmaceutical industry has a great influence (money) on the media, Congress, med schools, physicians, and pretty much every person on the planet.

  28. Håkan

    I have also pondered why Africa managed so well. But so did Iceland, Norway and Finland, should we then assume those people have adjusted with fair skin?

    My own country, Sweden, did far worse than our nabours, perhaps also driven by a large number of immigrants with darker skin. But there is no chance an anslysis based on race will be published in this country, it would be deemed racist to even think such a thought. Has any other country, perhaps UK or France, input on Covid and race/immigrants?

    1. Tom Welsh

      “But there is no chance an anslysis based on race will be published in this country, it would be deemed racist to even think such a thought”.

      Sadly this is true in the UK also – probably why there was no move to prevent people entering the country.

      However such fixed dogmatic prejudices are incompatible with science. Facts are facts, whether we like them or not. As Philip K. Dick pointed out,

      “Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away.”

    2. Tina

      It is on the UK news almost daily that BAME (black, Asian, minority ethnic) people are at greater risk and have more severe problems from covid. Not one mentions vitamin D deficiency.

      1. Simon C

        The media or at least the powers that be have politicised the issue for some reason. You’d think they’d rather tout vitamin d deficiency than use the following terms….

        Socially deprived. Overcrowded living conditions. Low social status. Underprivileged. Low income households.

        How many of the innumerable bame health care professionals who’ve died of covid19 can be described as such?

        Last I heard 27 of 29 doctors who succumbed to covid in the UK were of ethnic minority backgrounds.

    3. Simon C

      I’ve heard that the countries you mention have amongst the highest levels of vitamin D supplementation in the world. Maybe its encouraged due to the relative lack of sunshine up there?

    4. Terry Wright

      hi Håkan: you talk of “Sweden” as though it were a single, homogeneous entity.

      If you look at the stats for Scania (ie the county around Malmo), the mortality there (without house-arrest), was lower than across the bridge in Copenhagen, Denmark: (under house-arrest).

      It was in Stockholm that the deaths occurred; and dark-skinned immigrants; (who often too remain heavily covered for religious reasons); seem to be very much at risk. Studies of Vit D levels for the Scandinavian countries, in general, show good levels.

      “did far worse than our nabours” .. that is what the media wish you to promulgate Håkan; your rates are very similar to Norway and Finland. I would suggest you are unfairly harsh on your country; many of us have greatly admired what Sweden has done. No-one in Sweden seems to have run around screeching; a sadly common trait in other countries.

      1. Håkan

        No, Terry Wright, Swedish Covid death rates are not similar to Norway and Finland:
        Sweden 540 Deaths per million
        Finland 60
        Norway 47
        Denmark 105
        Iceland 28
        So we did far worse than our nabours, indeed.

  29. anglosvizzera

    Good article – but before everyone rushes out to buy vitamin D supplements or wonders why their vitamin D status doesn’t seem to improve much despite lots of sun/supplementation, it’s important to consider that magnesium deficiency (apparently rife these days) can be a factor in poor vitamin D status as it is needed to ‘activate’ vitamin D in the body.

    As others have mentioned, vitamin K2 is also needed for other reasons in relation to vitamin D and their interaction with calcium – so it’s vital to realise all micronutrients work in concert and can’t really be considered discretely.

    Also take into account that, although you can get a vitamin D test of some accuracy, the usual blood serum test for magnesium that the NHS offers won’t tell you much. The amount of magnesium in the blood is maintained so long as the body’s stores (eg bones) can provide enough magnesium, so if a blood serum test shows a magnesium deficiency, you really have virtually NO detectable magnesium left in your body, by which time you’d probably be showing lots of symptoms of that!

    The body’s need for magnesium increases during times of stress (like now for many people?) as it gets ‘used up’ more, and a magnesium deficiency can itself lead to increased anxiety levels and inability to cope with ‘stress’ in general. A double whammy! Something which may currently be causing more of a magnesium and, by default vitamin D, deficiency…

    Magnesium can be obtained through supplementation (some forms being more or less bioavailable), from magnesium oil applied to the skin (which isn’t greasy, despite its name) or by soaking in baths with Epsom salts or magnesium flakes, both cheaply available. It is considered that magnesium levels in foods have dropped significantly over the past few decades with the advent of modern farming methods, and that the body is only able to absorb a certain amount from diet even if it’s actually present.

    Some links here – I’m no expert, but I do think this mineral needs to be taken into account when discussing levels of vitamin D:

  30. andy

    Other risk factors for severity of covid symptoms are diabetes, obesity, and chronic inflammation. There is a connection to D.
    Obesity Decreases Hepatic 25‐Hydroxylase Activity Causing Low Serum 25‐Hydroxyvitamin D
    “Vitamin D insufficiency is most commonly due to inadequate cutaneous synthesis of cholecalciferol and/or insufficient intake of vitamin D, but can also arise as a consequence of pathological states such as obesity.”
    “In conclusion, obese mice had significantly lower serum levels of 25(OH)D3 than lean mice overall, and at all time points. Our studies confirm the work of others showing that vitamin D supplementation is less effective in obese subjects than in lean subjects, and now provides a biological mechanism to explain these observations. Thus, we suggest that it may be more effective to treat vitamin D insufficiency in the obese with calcidiol than with calciferols.”

  31. Mike S

    Thank you again Dr Kendrick. I used to get bad colds a couple of times every year. I also found that cuts and scrapes got infected more easily as I got older. I stopped eating sugar & processed foods a few years ago and started taking Vit C and D ( I learned that right here). I haven’t had a cold or infected cut since.

    1. Göran Sjöberg


      This is also my own experience!

      Earlier I caught “every” cold but none today.

      Though I stopped these bad “habits” about ten years ago.

  32. Lisa Wright

    It makes sense that Vitamin D would be a factor, but please don’t underestimate the influence of Trump and his followers on the American pandemic. I am from the NYC area, When hospitals first became overwhelmed, Trump refused to offer federal assistance in procuring desperately needed equipment. He told the democratic governor & mayor it was on them to deal with it. He also consistently downplayed the virus. His Surgeon General told people not to wear masks, etc. Even now, Trump never appears in a mask, and his followers go on twitter and scream about their rights being violated by mask orders.

    If Trump had not disbanded the US’s international pandemic-preparedness team, if he had listened to early warnings in his briefings, if he had responded rationally once the virus hit, if even now he would stop politicizing the virus, we’d be in a different place. Just yesterday he threatened to cut funding from schools that refused to open in the fall, even though his own health experts advise against this. He is still opposed to widespread testing and has said multiple times that this is because the statistics hurt him politically. Etc. Etc.

    1. anna m


      Fauci also said not to wear masks, that they were of emotional benefit only and presented problems.
      Children are at near zero risk and now the WHO has (sort of) admitted that they are not likely carriers. How many months and years should they be quarantined?

    2. Terry Wright

      Lisa; please spare us the politics: NY is a Democratic region; in the US, each State has a substantial degree of independence; Cuomo does not seem a person to listen or consult with anyone else; please don’t blame POTUS for what your fine Democratic leaders do; I sense you believe in masks; I would say they are rubbish. all best wishes to you;

    3. Gary Ogden

      Lisa Wright: Bashing Trump sheds no light on our understanding of what has taken place over the recent months. It is clear that, at least in some hospitals in New York, such as Elmhurst, medical treatment was horribly botched, and Cuomo’s order to send ill hospitalized seniors to nursing homes increased the number of deaths. It is disgusting how politicized this has become. One of the most promising treatment protocols for covid: HCQ+zinc+an antibiotic, was developed by an upstate New York doctor, Vladimir Zelenko. Like Dr. Kendrick, he is a real doctor, and makes his medical decisions upon what is best for the patient, not politics. He sent a letter to Trump about his remarkable success with this treatment, and received a phone call from the White House Chief of Staff. This letter may very well be the reason Trump began the protocol. Yet the press attacked him for using HCQ! For political reasons, this being an election year. Both the Democratic and Republican parties are owned by pharma, and Trump has made some terrible appointments in the health bureaucracy, but let’s keep partisan politics out of human health. The response, both in the U.S. and UK was a terrible, deadly mistake. You can watch an interview with Dr. Zelenko on the Highwire episode I linked to above. A truly fine physician and human being.

    4. Jerome Savage

      From this side of the pond I do recall Cuomo whining about Trump not providing ventilators, thousands & thousands, to NYC at expense of US taxpayer. Turns out they were proven to be no lifesaver, was it 80% fatality rate ?

  33. Binra (@onemindinmany)

    The cause is not the diminished immune function, but that is a critical factor.
    The cause is not proven to be a virus or even a clinical disease associated with unreliable tests for fragments of the proposed virus.
    The cause can be considered as the total terrain- which includes toxic exposures that the immune response operates to cear unless lacking the means to do so, or being suppressed or overburdened with treatments – notwithstanding the biological effect of great and persistent fear.

    The true nature of viruses is like the true nature of climate, in that only those facets that can be used to leverage reaction under fear for funding and compliance or allegiance and support are given funding and incentivised for allegiance and support.

    The use of narrative devices to effectively control the mind is a way of repackaging fear and toxic debt in complex instruments that seem to be assets or protections. If we do this within our own mind, why should we be surprised to find that it operates ‘consensus’ reality – as anything but a willingness to bring our unique perspectives to a richness of creative potentials.

    The pretext for a global ‘reset’ is the incrementally unfolding plan for the consolidation of ‘control’ to a contraction of rights, freedoms and creative participation, which may render life un-liveable in any sense of the meaning of our wholeness of being.

    The distortions and lies that operation covid-19 depends upon are of such a nature as to make discussing its details a reinforcement of its core deceit.
    The response or reaction to the shout of persistent terror threat, across a lockstepped media and an almost totally compliant political and institutional allegiance, is the ‘disease’ that chokes the life to feed the cancer or parasitic imposition that has largely captured the regulatory systems under which all things are increasing bound, directed or mandated.

    My sense is that genetic matter that has served purpose is deconstructed to finer parts or constituents that are thus available for reconstitution or reuse as the building blocs of life. As the whole thing is a living field of creative interconnections it completely exceeds our liner concept of cause and effect. While one can get lost or hide in complexity one can also recognise that life is innately self-organising and fundamentally symbiotic – within which are also inherent imbalances and dissonances that are also opportunities for growth in terms of expanded networks of communication that has many levels – such that any function can serve as a vehicle for higher functions. IE: membranes once thought to be containers are revealed to serve an instant communication state between all parts of the body.

    I note the precautionary principle being espoused for lockdown – but this is a reversal of common sense. The precautionary principle is to refrain from introducing changes where lack of harm has not been established. Profit seeking corporations hate this as a regulatory block.

    The 4th industrial ‘revolution’ or Reich is biotech controls over a lab rat gene pool (human beings). It seeks to manufacture the replacement of virology by genetics, perhaps using a catastrophic ‘failure’ of virology to inaugurate a ‘saviour’ – along with bio-phood for a starved world. The parasitic nature of systemic corruption may as well be ‘reptilians’ – but is more akin to a back end of fear as control – with a front end of an increasingly normalised blind compliance.
    Corruption in the literature, the theories used as facts, and the protection of invested models from the evidence operate a reversal of the Natural Order in the framing of our thought – but the Natural Order will run regardless our insane reactions to or attempt to exploit it for private agenda.

  34. bunnyjean

    Interesting, I actually had my Vitamin d tested in France and it was 20. I now take 3 x 5000mcg per week to keep it up to around 100, which is optimal.
    Always take with the fattest meal of the day, plus K2 this help direct the calcium into the bones
    and teeth instead of the soft tissues which is bad.
    I suffered from sinus problems for over 60 years plus two operations, since taking this vitamin
    I have never had anymore sinus issue, perhaps it’s just a fluke but I don’t think so.

  35. Peggy Sue

    The general consensus seems to be that one needs to balance Vitamin D with magnesium and K2 in order to maintain calcium balance?
    Is there an accepted protocol for such things? Should a small, post-menopausal female take the same as a 6ft male for example? All sounds too important to just guess.

      1. Tom Welsh

        It’s widely believed that keeping intake of A and D balanced helps prevent an excess of either. In other words, an apparent excess of D could be partly caused by lack of A, and vice versa.

        Unlike D, there seem to be adequate dietary sources of A – but you do have to consume them. I personally have some difficulty persuading my nearest and dearest to consume liver as often as I would like (weekly). Dark chocolate and some other foods often have to serve.

        More generally, if a micronutrient is not known to be harmful in any reasonable dose, I prefer to risk taking more than I need and get “expensive urine” as the critics often warn. With Vitamin C, for example, costing about £15 a kilo, my 10 grams a day – if all of it were excreted – would be costing me about £0.15 (15 p) a day. I can live with that – especially if it helps me to avoid crippling or deadly disease, or the need for hugely expensive proprietary drugs. In fact, it’s worth it if it reduces the chance of my needing to have anything to do with the NHS!

  36. johnplatinumgoss

    It makes sense. All I would add really is that I am not convinced that the figures being released in many western countries (in particular UK and US) are a true reflection of COVID-19 cases and deaths. There have been many reports of hospitals having been offered funding incentives to record a death as being COVID-19 if the symptoms seem to fit.

    Someone this morning who I played golf with told me his wife went into hospital a few weeks back with very high temperature (40 degrees plus) and was immediately labelled as COVID-19 suspected (not sure of the actual terminology). This remained on her bed up to her being released. When they tried to find out what had caused it it turned out to be a a bacteriological infection and not a virus at all. The report still went out about being admitted with Covid-type symptoms.

    1. AhNotepad

      johnplatinumgoss, without meaning to sound melodramatic, that “error” could have cost her dearly. Correct treatment may have effected a relatively quick recovery, treating a suspected but non-existent virus may have been terminal, in my medically unqualified opinion

      1. johnplatinumgoss

        I’m sure you’re right. There is so much wrong with what his happening. According to this Surrey consultant hospital staff will lose their jobs if they talk to the press.

        “Released 08/07/20.
        I am a consultant at a major, regional hospital in Surrey. By major you can take that to indicate that we have an A&E department. I had agreed to give an interview to an anti lockdown activist in which I would have revealed my identity. I have since changed my mind and only feel able to give an anonymous statement. I have changed my mind simply because that all staff , no matter what grade, at all hospitals have been warned that if they give any media interviews at all or make any statements to either the Main Stream Press or smaller, independent press /social media we may, immediately be suspended without pay. I have a family, dependents and I simply cant do it to them. I therefore can not reveal my identity at this time but wish to state as follows:

        In my opinion, and that of many of my colleagues, there has been no Covid Pandemic, certainly not in the Surrey region and I have heard from other colleagues this picture is the same throughout the country. Our hospital would normally expect to see around 350,000 out patients a year. Around 95,000 patients are admitted to hospital in a normal year and we would expect to see around a similar figure, perhaps 100,000 patients pass through our A&E department. In the months from March to June (inclusive) we would normally expect to see 100,000 out patients, around 30,000 patients admitted to hospital and perhaps 30,000 pass through A&E. This year (and these figures are almost impossible to get hold of) we are over 95% down on all those numbers. In effect, the hospital has been pretty much empty for that entire period.

        At the start, staff that questioned this were told that we were being used as ‘redundant’ capacity, kept back for the ‘deluge’ we were told would come. It never did come, and when staff began to question this, comments like, ‘for the greater good’ and to ‘protect the NHS’ came down from above. Now its just along the lines of, ‘Shut up or you don’t get paid’. The few Covid cases that we have had, get repeatedly tested, and every single test counted as a new case. Meaning the figures reported back to ONS / PHE (Office for National Statistics & Public Health England) were almost exponentially inflated. It could be that Covid cases reported by hospitals are between 5 to 10x higher than the real number of cases. There has been no pandemic and this goes a long way to explain why figures for the UK are so much higher than anywhere else in Europe.

        The trust has been running empty ambulances during lockdown and is still doing it now. By this I mean ambulances are driving around, with their emergency alert systems active (sirens & / or lights) with no job to go to. This I believe has been to give the impression to the public that there is more demand for ambulances than there actually is. Staff only wear face coverings/ masks & social distance when public facing, as soon as they are out of public view, the masks come off and social distancing is not observed. Indeed jokes are made about the measures, and I have heard staff express amazement that despite warnings on packets and at point of sales, telling people masks are totally ineffective and dangerous, the public still buy them, because a politician has told them too.

        We have cancelled the vast majority of operations and of these ALL elective surgery has been cancelled. That’s surgery that has been pre planned / waiting list. Non elective Surgery, this tends to be emergency surgery or that which is deemed urgent has been severely curtailed. The outcome of this is simple. People are at best being denied basic medical care and at worst, being left to die, in some cases, in much distress and pain.

        Regarding death certification. All staff that are responsible for this have been encouraged where possible to put Covid-19 complications as reason for death, even though the patient may have been asymptomatic and also not even tested for covid. I feel this simply amounts to fraudulently completed death certificates and has been responsible to grossly inflating the number of Covid deaths. The fact is that regardless of what you actually die of in hospital, it is likely that Covid-19 will feature on your death certificate. I have included with my statement the detailed published guidance from Government on Death Certification which shows how Covid-19, as a factor is encouraged to at least feature on a death certificate. Remember Covid-19 itself can not kill. What kills is complications from the virus, typically pneumonia like symptoms. These complications are in reality incredibly rare but have featured and a large amount of death certificates issued in recent months. As long as Covid-19 appears on a death certificate, that death is counted as Covid-19 in the figures released by the ONS and PHE. I genuinely believe that many death certificates, especially amongst the older 65+ demographic have been fraudulently completed so as to be counted as Covid-19 deaths when in reality Covid-19 complications did not cause the death.

        There have been Thursday nights when I stood, alone in my office and cried as I heard people cheering and clapping outside. It sickens me to see all the ‘Thank You NHS’ signs up everywhere and the stolen rainbow that for me now says one word and word only ; Fear.

        There are many good people in the NHS and whilst I do not plead forgiveness for myself, I do plead for them. Most are on low pay, they joined for the right reasons and I did and have been bullied and threatened that if they don’t ‘stay on message’ they don’t eat. I know that if a way could be found to assure staff within the NHS of safety against reprisals, there would be a tsunami of whistleblowers which I have no doubt would help end this complete and brutal insanity. I am finding it increasingly hard to live with what I have been involved in and I am sorry this has happened. To end, I would simply say this. Politicians haven’t changed, the country has just made a fatal mistake and started trusting them without question.”

        1. AhNotepad

          That consultant (and probably many others) deserves a medal. They and their colleagues are having to see the results of the criminals in government every day. It must be torture for them.

        2. Nick Turner

          Did you find this at (delete * in following links):


          or (their source):


          or (their source)

          If it is the last one, are you a member?

          The problem with these accounts is that individuals will have to put their names to them in order for the ‘good guys’ to be able to do anything. It would be ideal material for Simon Dolan’s team if only there were a name.

  37. Charles Gale

    “…so serum levels decline if they are not continually replenished…”

    Thanks both to Anon for writing the excellent article and also Dr. K for allowing the guest blog.

    I thought the quote above a timely reminder – after weeks of sunshine in England, we now have cloudy weather and my thoughts had been turning towards supplementation again.

    1. Tom Welsh

      We always supplement. 8,000 iu each per day, with K2, magnesium, and C. (Also B12, kelp for iodine, and some zinc and chromium once a week).

  38. Charles Gale

    Spiked online

    I’ve just visited Dr Mike Eades’ Twitter where he’s provided a link to a Coronavirus interview with Dr Kendrick.

    It’s a brief, written interview in Q&A format on “Spiked online” – I’m not sure who or what they are.

  39. Gary Ogden

    Thank you very much, Guest Contributor. Very good analysis. I’m happy, too, because I live at latitude 36.746841 N, and thus am immune to the ‘Rona! At altitude the vitamin D window is longer, so I’m getting plenty from hiking 6-10,000’ as well.

  40. rkdibben

    Is there a contradiction in proposing that sun exposure explains lower mortality in Africa but that the indigenous population in Ecuador has a “greater susceptibility to the coronavirus”?

    1. rkdibben

      My question is based on the idea that melanin in the skin should have the same affect in both places, no? An additional consideration in my question is that the (sunnier) southern states in the USA are currently seeing increases in coronovirus cases.

      1. Lisa Wright

        Rkdibben I had the same question about why indigenous people in Ecuador are vulnerable but Africans are not – though I have read about research in the US suggesting that the vulnerability of African Americans is due to social factors … Re: case increases in southern US states, even the power of the sun can’t counteract the willful foolishness of people who believe covid-19 is no big deal and that social distancing/lockdowns/mask orders, etc. violate their rights.

      2. Simon C

        Uneducated guess but I’m going to suggest that black people in Africa get more sun exposure and fresh air than those in America, and are generally in better physical condition ie much lower levels of obesity.

        1. Tom Welsh

          Africans have also been shown to have far more healthy gut biomes. (Although that may be changing fast as the continent becomes urbanised).

        1. Tom Welsh

          RNA and DNA are easy to find in the human body. What gets tested is never a full bacterial or viral genome; usually it is some small fragment that scientists have decided characterizes a particular pathogen. Then the PCR process – which, remember, was said NOT to be suitable for diagnosis by its inventor – consists merely of doubling the amount of DNA over and over to see how much there is after 37, 38, 39 or 40 doublings. As that amplifies by about a trillion times, imagine the scope for error and impurities. Many test kits have been shown to contaminated so that they always return a positive result.

          There is even some doubt in the most respectable scientific circles as to whether there exists such a virus as SARS-COV-2. If it does exist, there is a lot of doubt as to how harmful it is. The testing approach makes the huge (and unwarranted) assumption that if a person tests positive for that specific virus, and becomes sick, the virus is the causative agent. But no one has ever tried the Koch tsts to prove that a given pathogen causes a given disease. That would be very hard (or impossible), as the alleged symptoms of Covid-19 overlap so much with those of other respiratory diseases such as TB, pneumonia and flu. When people are tested for SARS-COV-2, are they also tested for those pathogens? I think not.

          What Covid-19 has proved to be is a devastatingly destructive attack on our belief that our medical system works. It has systematically shown up every unsafe assumption, every untested claim, and every organizational failure.

          One’s attitude to it constitutes an advanced practical intelligence test.

      3. Gary Ogden

        rkdibben: Many factors involved with health in the South: higher levels of poverty, poor nutritional status, and high levels of obesity being three of the major ones.

    2. Brian Williams

      I assume he means South American Indians having a genetic susceptibility, whereas Argentinians are mostly European.

      1. Tom Welsh

        Although I was born in Argentina and spent some early years there, I found this surprising. But it’s quite true:

        “A 2010 study conducted on 218 individuals by the Argentine geneticist Daniel Corach established that the genetic map of Argentina is composed of 79% from different European ethnicities (mainly Italian and Spanish), 18% of different indigenous ethnicities, and 4.3% of African ethnic groups; 63.6% of the tested group had at least one ancestor who was Indigenous”.

    3. Terry Wright

      Hi rkdibben;

      “the indigenous population in Ecuador has a “greater susceptibility to the coronavirus”?”

      You can find papers if you google rkdibben; on very low Vit D levels in Guayaquil; I did bookmark them somewhere; so go check: I think it is a mixture of atmospheric pollution and food there:

      you can similarly find papers on the elderly in Kalamata in Greece; independently living elderly had good Vit D levels; residents of care homes there had very low levels; you need to expose yourself to the sun: women in many sunny countries hide away, valuing pale skin.

      1. Tom Welsh

        It’s interesting to reflect that evolution takes tens or hundreds of thousands of years to shape organisms like ourselves; and maybe thousands of years or at least centuries to turn black skin pink(ish) or vice versa.

        Yet human culture can completely counteract all that within a single year or two. People can decide to swathe themselves in all-covering clothes that exclude every chink of sunshine. (As I recall, Adam and Eve wore very little). They can adopt dietary customs that cause severe malnutrition and deficiencies. They can even practice clever new technologies like intensive farming, which produce bigger yields and profits, but after a few years squeeze most of the valuable micronutrients out so that people might as well eat cardboard.

        Indeed, I have seen it remarked that more nutrition can be got from the cardboard boxes in which cereal is sold than from the cereal. Tom Naughton actually priced soil at garden centres to establish that typical foods packed with refined carbs are literally cheaper than dirt.

      2. Tom Welsh

        “women in many sunny countries hide away, valuing pale skin”.

        Or they are compelled to cover up, like many Muslim women. Or choose to, like modern Western youngsters.

        Incidentally, all women (except slaves and prostitutes) in classical Athens, that home of Western civilisation, were forced to cover up just as much as modern Afghan or Saudi women. (If not more). The social attitude – which unfortunately persists in many cultures today – was that any woman who displayed any part of her body or hair was advertising her availability.

        Apologies to anyone who finds that offensive; I can only plead that it is the truth.

    4. Tom Welsh

      Just a stray thought – but remember the classic cartoon depiction of the Central American person enveloped in blankets and wearing a broad sombrero (literally “sun hat”)?

  41. Mike

    A very good and sensible article. I take D3 x 3000iu along with K2 x 100ug every day and cant honestly remember the last time I was ill. I also follow a Keto lifestyle.

  42. Nissen Bron

    I take vitamin C 1000 mg twice a day. I take D3 2000 iu twice a day. I am 73 and my antibodies are 93.6. I live 45 miles north west of New York and Coronavirus has never given me a sneez.

  43. Paul Arnold

    This chap, Kendrick, is a Scottish doc whose thinking is independent and not always in line with the AMA…he downplays the importance of cholesterol in heart health, for instance.

    Carol and I have been seeing more and more about the importance of vitamin D3 regarding COVID. We (and daughter Anne) try to keep our levels at about 90. Yesterday, I found that in my last week’s blood tests, my D3 level is 89. Close enough. Carol, I, and Anne take D3 supplements regularly.

    This article supports our hope that we are on the right track, and I thought you might be interested in reading it…knowing that you are assiduous in resisting the evils of COVID. Vitamin D3 supps are dirt cheap


    On Thu, Jul 9, 2020 at 4:47 AM Dr. Malcolm Kendrick wrote:

    > Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: “9th July 2020 A guest article I was sent > this piece on Vitamin D and COVID by a reader of this blog. I thought it > was very good and asked them if they minded me posting it. They said fine, > but they wish to remain anonymous. Not everyone likes the gl” >

  44. Jack Williamsen

    The possible role of vitamin D as it relates to the severity of of COVID-19 (and upper respiratory infections generally) has been discussed at some length in the U.S. in the blogs of Christ Masterjohn, Grassroots Health, and others. The discussion began some weeks ago (after the article with the chart you feature appeared) and is now somewhat “stale news” here in the States. YouTube here has numerous videos (of varying quality, of course) on the health effects of various Vitamin D levels. This is not secret stuff, just information that is usually ignored (likely not much financial profit in it).

  45. Jenny

    All I can ad is that I live in Tucson, Arizona. Sunshine is my middle name 🙂 I had a level of 25 before I moved here 5 years ago now I am at a 60-70 number . I was in the Bay Area before…. Fog Central and gray!
    Thanks so much for sharing this article. Have never commented but follow you on all media outlets. Always patiently waiting for the next newsletter.
    Thanks Doctor~

  46. mohammed ali

    Not disputing potential benefit of vit d but seemed to have glossed over the bit about rates in South America… “The disparity may arise from a greater susceptibility to the coronavirus among people with indigenous ancestry” why is that so in SA but not elsewhere? People in Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka etc are not “indigenous”?

    1. Terry Wright

      Hi mohammed; “a greater susceptibility to the coronavirus ” …….rates of T2 diabetes are several times higher in many indigenous populations; eg this paper cited earlier .. quoting South Asian populations:

      “have a type 2 diabetes prevalence at least twice as high as Caucasians and develop the condition five to ten years earlier at lower levels of adiposity.(2)

      Two thirds of type 2 diabetes deaths are due to thrombotic complications and amongst Asian Indians in India 52% of cardiovascular death occurs prematurely, in those under the age of 70. ”

      So add Vit D deficiency; T2 diabetes and risks increase; all best wishes

  47. JDPatten

    Sunshine in the Southern United States… Florida, Georgia, Texas, … etc, etc…. in July!
    But, that’s where the big surge in cases is happening now.
    So, why would that be?
    They hadn’t had the virus at all yet so this is their “spike”? But it’s a smaller population putting US cases far higher than ever.
    There would have been far more cases without this sunshine? No no! “Would have been” is never part of a rational hypothesis.
    I would very much like someone to cobble together an explanation.

    (Don’t look at me like that. I’ve been taking 5,000 IU daily for many years now. I just want an explanation I can feel comfortable using myself.)
    ( I should say here that everyone is different, with a different response to supplements. Get a 25(OH)D test after you’ve been on it some weeks. One person’s not-enough dose can be another person’s too-much.)

    1. Terry Wright

      Hi JD; “big surge in cases”

      I think you are believing what the media tell you JD: always a bad move.

      It is an explosion of testing; folks with no complaints are tested; sometimes repeatedly it seems;

      Dr K did a very good short comment in the previous blog about false positive/true positive.

      There is no gold standard in testing: you are actually believing that finding probably dead viral fragments in the snot of someone’s nose; means their body is over-run and infected with replicating virus? Our mucosa keeps bugs out; that’s why we have it.

      Our intestines keep bacteria out of our blood-stream; we carry around vast amounts of bacteria in our guts; we are literally “full of s*it”; but we don’t succumb; our innate system in the gut works as well as the innate system in our nose and lower respiratory tract.

      1. JDPatten

        Am I to believe you . . . instead?
        Belief is a funny thing with me. I gotta have reasons.
        You should have a chat – when there’s time – with any of the carers in ERs and ICUs in those southern and western states.

        Oh, and, to the point, why are those ICUs so burdened in the Sunshine States?
        D? Puzzle??

    2. Gary Ogden

      JDPatten: The (Johns Hopkins) data show that it is finished (as a threat) in you state, in New York, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and others, but on the rise in several. I think you are correct that those states had not yet reached their HIT. But “cases” is an unreliable indicator of anything. Excess deaths gives a much clearer picture. In this regard North Carolina is worrisome, with a dramatic increase.

      1. JDPatten

        Yes, Gary, but WHY is NC worrisome when it’s getting mid-July sun?
        That’s the question here.

        Notice how so many here are so eager to repeat whatever notions they’ve heard/read elsewhere, whatever rock-solid conviction they can espouse, whatever mind impulse that sweeps them up so that they can validate their sense of themselves at that level in the responses they get – – – without truly pondering the question at hand?

        1. Gary Ogden

          JDPatten: One factor which may play a role in NC is that “eastern North Carolina is covered in shit.” That is, the eastern part of the state has many industrial hog farms. Despite the way we vilify swine as disgustingly unclean, they are no more so than other domestic animals, and in confinement put their waste in a far corner, away from where they hang out. But they do produce a lot of crap, I suspect because of their plant-based diet. Where to put these vast amount of urine and feces? Why in massive, reeking ponds, of course. It was in such a pond in Mexico that the crack team of CDC sleuths claimed to have found the “swine flu” during the Ford administration. That produced one death, of a service member, and many cases of Guillain Barrè syndrome from the vaccine (60 Minutes broadcast a story about one of them).

  48. Paul Bunning

    The current explosion of coronavirus in Arizona, USA. — which now has higher per capita rates than Europe despite a much later start — would seem to argue against D3 (or more precisely UV rays) being much help. Few places on earth get as much sunlight as Arizona this time of year.

    A confounding variable, however, is the widespread use of air conditioning during daytime temperatures of 112 degrees (F) or more. People go from air conditioned homes to air conditioned cars to air conditioned workplaces or restaurants, to air conditioned churches and gyms. Few will eat dinner outside on the patio… Arizonans love to hike and golf, but in summer must limit those activities.

    Vitamin D may help people fight Covid-19, but I can’t help think air conditioning may prove to be a more important factor, at least in places with very hot summers.

    1. Terry Wright

      Hi Paul “current explosion of coronavirus”

      …… you mean explosion of testing, Paul?

      a good figure to show is ratio of positives/total number of tests done; that is usually a very flat line, down at about 0.3% ……

      ALSO: Dr K pointed out in the previous blog that you can have 50 or 60 times as many FALSE positives; as true positives ………

      If one looks at folks who are unwell; who are in hospital; death rates; they are not changing we understand, although the media does not publish such things; better just to promote scares.

      1. Paul

        In Arizona the positives are 11% of those tested. The number of cases today 18 times the May 1 total. High temps this week may reach 119. Even going from car to workplace or restaurant, people get lots of UV rays…

    2. Dr No

      Dr No calls a ‘you do more tests, you get more cases’ epidemic a Trumpdemic, see recent posts on There is also a strong likelihood that the recent UK Leicester spike was a Trumpdemic. He has also written about the problem of false positives and negatives, especially when prevalence is low (as it is for covid-19).

      Dr No

  49. Anne

    Excellent article. I have seen similar on a popular website devoted to complimentary therapies. This website suggests that Vitamin K2 should be included with the Vitamin D supplementation.

  50. Simon C

    About 2000iu will keep you out of the deficient zone, but increasing intake initially to get to that level would be advisable.

    Lower risk of all cause mortality has been observed at around 30ng/ml, which is out of the deficient zone but much lower than many recommend. Levels higher than that don’t seem to confer additional benefit, at least on all cause mortality.

    This level seems to tally with the study mentioned in the article. Maybe 30ng/ml is the sweet spot?

  51. David Bailey

    Malcolm’s guest wrote:

    “Research published in 2015 showed that Vitamin D3, in the form that is created in the skin by UV light or taken as a dietary supplement, has a direct, protective effect on the endothelium ”

    Might this suggest that Vitamin D might also protect people from Cardio Vascular Diseases?

  52. huskytomatodiomedes4238

    As a fellow medical blogger (and retired doctor) who holds many views in common with Dr Kendrick, notably on statination (and the all too often malign influence of Big Pharma), screening harms and the general rise of coercive healthism (from the title of a book by Petr Skrabanek), and one who I might add takes daily Vit C and D (and zinc), and not wishing in any way to poop on the party, it is perhaps right to mention that most, if not all, the material in the guest post is based on observed associations, and we should always remember that association does not prove causation (or for that matter disprove it). Or, to put it another way, we should apply the same rigour to looking at the potential benefits (and potential harms) of Vit D as we should to the benefits and harms of say statins and screening.

    That important caveat underlined, the observations are interesting and mostly plausible, but without proper experiments we don’t know. Nonetheless, Dr No will continue to take his supplements (an important point here is a vitamin/mineral is part of a normal diet, so the threshold for taking it can be much much lower than say for a medical intervention like taking a drug).

    Dr No’s current Bad Medicine blog is at All recent posts have been on covid-19 except one on twitter censorship. His older blog is at

    Dr No

    1. David

      Vitamin D is, as far as I know. cheap and safe. There is, therefore, no need to be quite as rigorous as people should have been with statins.

    2. ellifeld

      By the time ‘proper’ experiments are set up and tried, we will lose the opportunity. Besides with vitamin D, unlike prescription meds, there is very little downside. There is no need to be so cautious. Medicine seems to to have no trouble throwing all kinds of prescriptions at this virus, but vitamin D? Heaven forbid! Plus a lot seems to be known about vitamin D, even if conventional medicine seems to ignore it. And if that’s not enough, no one is going to put money into a not profitable chemical like vitamin D. Only chemicals that can be patented are looked at by the pharmaceutical industry.

      1. Lance Droy

        I read “The Optimal Dose” by Judson Somerville. This is another MD who is going outside the medical wisdom, to come up with radical treatments. He treats his patients, and himself, with a massive,. 36,000 IU, dose of D3, and claims remarkable results, including painless weight loss. While 36,000 is wildly over the recommended dosage, the lowest amount associated with any toxic results is 40,000. I have investigated Dr Somerville online, and his credentials are impressive. I have not, so far, found any major criticism of him, or his theories. The benefits claimed in the appear, as does Dr Somerville, to be amazing.

        1. Sasha

          I am now reading “Fat and Cholesterol Don’t Cause Heart Attacks and Statins Are Not the Solution”. It’s a compilation of articles by researchers, including one by Dr Kendrick. One of the articles is by Dr Seneff, a senior research scientist at MIT. I’ve also listened to her lectures before.

          The reason I mention Dr Seneff is because in her article she says: “… despite the fact that Vit D deficiency is associated with CVD risk, placebo-controlled trials have failed to show any benefit from vit D3 supplementation”. As a reference she gives this paper: “Vitamin D3 supplementation has no effect on conventional cardiovascular risk factors: A parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled RCT.” J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2012;97 (10):3557-68.

          Since many on here posted about D3 supplementation, I wonder if people are familiar with the paper and what your thoughts are. I think Dr Seneff is a serious researcher and her work is well-referenced.

          1. andy

            Hi Sasha: re association of vitamin D3 and CVD
            Study shows negligible association. The biggest effect of D3 supplementation is on immune system and tight junctions. If CVD doesn’t get you, something else might.

          2. Martin Back

            I haven’t read the paper, but the phrase “has no effect on conventional cardiovascular risk factors” does not mean the same as “does not lead to fewer heart attacks”. If the so-called “risk factor” has no relation to cardiac health (e.g. cholesterol level), the fact that there is no change in the risk factor tells us nothing about the effect on cardiovascular health..

          3. Sasha

            Martin: I noticed the wording as well but because Dr Seneff is a serious and ethical (in my opinion) researcher and because it’s a book dedicated to investigating CVD causes, I assumed what she meant: RCTs failed to show improvement in outcomes with Vit D supplementation. I might be wrong, I will look further into it.

    3. Dr No

      By the bye – no idea why Dr No got named as huskytomatodiomedes4238 last time he posted. Probably some gravatar spook.

      David and ellifield: Dr No agrees with your comments, and said as much in his comment. For example:

      (1) he takes a vitamin D supplement (surely that should mean something!)

      (2) he pointed out that it is a dietary supplement and not a prescription drug and so “so the threshold for taking it can be much much lower”

      All that said, and agreed, there is still plenty of reason to do the science and find out. That’s the whole point of science!

      The problem of lack of research into non-profit generating supplements and/or treatments (or worse, stifling any such research) is a serious one, even if the economic mechanics behind the problem are obvious.

      1. David Bailey

        Dr No,

        I think the evidence that Vitamin D is useful against COVID-19 is wider that this one study, and since darker skinned people need more sunlight to obtain the same amount of Vitamin D I can’t see that Dr K’s guest is making much of a leap of inference, and as others have said, in a crisis situation it is better do things that may well help if they are otherwise harmless.

        My own statin experience with statins, described here:
        has lead me to be extremely cautious about consuming drugs on a long term basis. My only reluctant exception is drugs for hypertension.

        1. Mr Chris

          There are non pharma things for hypertension, L Citrulline for a start, and also are you sure you need to treat it?

        2. Dr No

          Agreed, but with a note of caution about ‘otherwise harmless’. It is a truism that anything that has potential beneficial effects is almost always also capable of having harmful effects. Only the truly inert will have no effects, either way.

          Worth noting that those in favour of taking statins tend to use the why not take something that might help prevent heart attacks and strokes given that it is ‘otherwise harmless’ argument….

          Dr No has written about statins in the past, on his old blog ( – search for statins). The first post in the results list – Most Drugs Don’t Work – covers the general case, and is a reminder that NNTs also tell us the number of people for whom the drug makes no difference (eg NNT of 10 means people have to take the drug for x amount of time for one of the 10 to benefit, but that also means that for 9 people the drug made no difference, or strictly speaking no positive difference, it may nonetheless have had some harmful effect).

          For the record, Dr No (male in his sixties) does not take a statin, but does take an anti-hypertensive. He also happens to believe that blood pressure is affected far more by weight than is generally taken to be the case. Indeed, losing (excess) weight may be a more potent anti-hypertensive than most drugs. But no one in Big Pharma is going to encourage published research showing weight loss works (unless that Big Pharma person also markets a weight loss pill that is ‘otherwise harmless’).

          Dr No

          1. Dr No

            Correction: search for ‘statin’ not ‘statins’ – you (unsurprisingly) get a different but overlapping set of search results from the latter.

  53. Janusz Bieńkowski

    So Ecuator, Brazil and Peru does not fit the hypothesis. “The disparity may arise from a greater susceptibility to the coronavirus among people with indigenous ancestry.” May be. May be there is something else that we are missing.

    1. Dana

      The BBC Inquiry programme had an episode re the coronavirus in Quayaquil, Ecuador, just south of the equator, reporting approx. 600 deaths a day, corpses left in streets, homes, etc. March and April 2020. I believe they said a worker from Spain brought the virus back with them.

        1. andy

          Hi Terry; re low D in Ecuador
          Does low D cause obesity or is it the other way around? Maybe D is a measure of metabolic syndrome or insulin resistance.

          Overweight, obesity, and food consumption in Galapagos, Ecuador: a window on the world
          “Galapagos has the highest rate of overweight and obesity in all age groups, including 12.7% among children under 5 and 75.9% among adults from 20 to 60. In comparision, the national average for adults is 65% and Latin American countries with the highest rates of adult overweight and obesity are Argentina (68%), Chile (65%), and Mexico (70%) [9, 10].”

          1. Terry Wright

            thanks Andy “Maybe D is a measure of metabolic syndrome or insulin resistance.”

            I was trying to suggest I thought folks in the Guayaquil had low Vit D levels; and T2 diabetes; both are seemingly not good for a healthy life; one may well use up Vit D if metabolically unwell, but lack of sunlight also keeps levels very low.

          2. andy

            Hi Terry: appears that vitamin D deficiency is pandemic even in sunny places. Placing the blame on genes or sombreros might be only a partial explanation. Sunlight D has to be converted to a useful form by the liver and kidneys, if they are dysfunctional then benefit of sun exposure is lost. Another theory for low D blames adipocytes for sucking up vitamin D. The question is how effective is vit D supplementation for an obese person with hypertension in reducing risk of dying from covid?

          3. anglosvizzera

            Might a magnesium deficiency be responsible? I keep reading that most of the developed world is magnesium-deficient and it’s essential to ‘activate’ vitamin D. Magnesium deficiency might be rife everywhere these days…

          4. andy

            Hi anglovizzera: did a quick search on magnesium and D, need more than just sunshine

            Magnesium status and supplementation influence vitamin D status and metabolism: results from a randomized trial
            “Our findings suggest that optimal magnesium status may be important for optimizing 25(OH)D status.”

    2. James DownUnder

      “… May be. May be there is something else that we are missing….”

      Poor and Westernized diet ? – Fast food/burgers/fries/chicken/etc – concocted with inflammatory Vegetable oils…. High carbs from excess grain and convenience “foods” ?
      All lead towards T2Diabetes / heart disease.

    3. Terry Wright

      Hi Janusz: “So Ecuator, Brazil and Peru does not fit the hypothesis.”

      …… oh yes it does ….. no it doesn’t … yes it does …. please see Guayaquil paper.

      1. andy

        Hi Terry: the latitude/vitamin D hypothesis is valid for skinny people but invalid for fat people
        “Our study found a positive association between low vitamin D status (25(OH)D ≤ 30 ng/mL) and PBF (Percent Body Fat), which is also concordant with the literature [17, 25, 34, 44].”
        The Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome Among Older Adults in Ecuador: Results of the SABE Survey
        “Results: Of 2298 participants with a mean age of 71.6 (SD 8.1) years, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 66.0% (95% CI, 62.6%, 69.3%) in women and 47.1% (95% CI, 43.2%, 50.9) in men.”
        “Overall, abdominal obesity followed by elevated blood pressure were the metabolic syndrome components more prevalent and associated with insulin resistance among older Ecuadorians.”
        “Background: although it is well established that body fat mass is inversely associated with vitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations, little is known whether obesity increases the risk of 25(OH)D insufficiency among older adults in Ecuador.”
        “Conclusion: obesity is associated with increased risk of 25(OH)D insufficiency in Ecuador.”

  54. Martin Back

    Here in sunny South Africa, latitude similar to Argentina or the southern half of Australia, population 59 million of whom 9% are white, we are not yet at the peak and so far 3602 deaths i.e. 61 per million

    But given we are not yet at the peak, the final tally, assuming no 2nd wave, I estimate will be around 150 per million.

    1. Martin Back

      Note there is a high incidence of diabetes, possibly due to the traditional diet of maize meal, or the modern diet of KFC.

  55. TNS

    I think that data does not quite support the latitude-based explanation, or the ethnicity-related.
    For instance, according to data of 9.7.2020, Saudi Arabia and Finland have the same number of deaths per million [59 vs. 60]. Norway has even less [46]. Next door is Sweden with 545 casualties. And the corner of Europe with the least sunshine, Iceland, has just 29 deaths per million. Between Norway and Iceland with their low death toll, there is the country with a staggering 657 deaths: UK.
    Such numbers appear contradicting the theory about the effects of solar irradiation.

    1. Simon C

      Except many of those countries with less sun exposure either fortify their foods or strongly recommend supplementation. They are conscious of the consequences of deficiency, unlike the powers that be in the UK.

  56. Doug from Canada

    Canada is at 236 per million.

    Same population make up, education, health care, political system and lockdown uptake by its population as Australia & NZ

    Difference being we were at the end of our winter? We did have a high death rate in our long term care facilities, became a nationwide shame on how we failed them, and I’m sure they were extremely D deficient as well.

    Middle of a heat wave right now +36 C. Got my Vit. D today

  57. Craig E

    When this all over….at a time we can all hug again, perhaps we should have a conference for followers of your blog Dr Kendrick. I don’t comment that often but have been reading every last post and comment since 2013. My favourite blog by far.

    There are so many great contributors I wonder what it would be like to meet and reminisce about blogs past.

    We could hold the conference in Australia in summer…to maximise our Vit D while we’re at it. Though the way this is going, Australia might be isolated for a few years yet.

  58. comlabs2019

    Thank you for posting this Malcolm.

    If your readers want a review of the evidence and thinking behind the Grassrootshealth call for higher levels of vitamin D supplementation, they will find this video presentation excellent. It’s a co-production between Grassrootshealth and the University of Calif. San Diego. Although it is from 6 years ago, all the major themes it covers have been further confirmed by subsequent research. It is given by Robert Heaney from Creighton University:

    If you want a less technical series of insights from a UK consultant who deals with Vitamin D deficiency in the North West of England, then this presentation from Dr David Grimes is really interesting:

    That presentation was from 9 years ago. This underlines the utter stupidity of the present situation. We have known all we need to know for a long time. Vitamin D is not some untested thalidomide-type drug waiting in the wings to bring death and disfigurement. The research literature linking it to a wide variety of diseases and increased metabolic dysfunction grows by the month!

    A couple of weeks ago, NICE published its ‘review of the evidence’ for the protective benefits of Vitamin D – why does reading this feel like a cut-and-paste-job from previous ‘reviews’? We’ve been here before (dietary fat recommendations, cholesterol-lowering recommendations etc).

    It strikes me that David Grimes and Malcolm Kendrick are kindred spirits!

    Grimes’ scathing review of NICE and vitamin D is worth reading:

    Thanks again Malcolm.

    Nick Hall – Comlabs UK

  59. Thomas J Morgan

    Ivor Cummins’ video ‘D is for Debacle’ has a lot of info on Vitamin D, with references – well worth the time (about 1 hour).

  60. Ann

    Great article. I always knew sunlight was good for everyone, that’s why it always made me mad when I saw TV news showing police moving people off the beaches and parks. In the old days, our grandmother’s used to be a clean rugs etc by hanging them in the sun. You hang washing in the sun, not just to dry it but to sterilise it and get that lovely fresh washing smell. And strange how this same rule, to keep people off beaches, is a world wide thing. Even a lone fisherman or paddle boarder could be arrested, when there’s no one else in sight. Cheers.

  61. jbarnesbaker

    But doesn’t the fact that Africa and other equatorial countries where most people have darker skin that would absorb less vitamin D from the sun, refute the vitamin A theory for covid?

    1. Tom Welsh

      I take it you mean the Vitamin D theory, jbarnesbaker. It seems reasonable that human beings evolved in Africa where the sun is mostly quite hot and UV plentiful. While one cannot be sure, it seems likely that prehistoric humans in Africa had dark or black skins, and that it was only when a few of them emigrated to northern regions where the sun was much less hot that they had to evolve white skin.

      I have not done the sums, but I think you would find that the strength of the tropical sun and the length of time when it is sufficient to generate Vitamin D outweighs – or perhaps just balances – the darkness of people’s skins.

      Together with other factors such as more time spent outdoors and scantier clothing. I am astonished during the current few weeks of decent sunshine (often interespersed by cloud) in England to see so many people covered from head to toe as if it were mid-winter. Every moment of strong sunshine is precious, but it does you no good if it can’t reach your skin.

      For years now I have made it a habit to wear shorts and a short-cleeved shirt from April to September. Even that is barely sufficient to get up a decent tan.

      1. Madge Hirsch

        It would be interesting to compare the death rates in Africa of countries which have largely Muslim populations where skin is covered extensively by both men and women and those whose populations are mainly non Muslim . The research done on the Masai who still lead a fairly traditional lifestyle ie lots of time spent outside in the sun wearing minimal clothing shows them to have an average vit D level of between 45 and 50ng/ l
        This is considerably higher than the pitiful 20ng/ l deemed sufficient in the UK. Here in France it is 30ng/l. Vit D deficiency is taken more seriously here than in the UK but mainly for older women as part of osteoporosis prevention. Men died in large numbers here of covid. Vit D deficiency is a problem in countries where there is a lot of sunshine if sun and heat avoiding behaviour is practised. This is the case for the elderly in Spain and Italy. Also old skin does not make vit D as readily as young skin and taking statins would reduce it’s capability even further. Supplementation is essential.

  62. Dana

    GrassrootsHealth (dot) net publishes info re vit. d dosage and has written about Covid-19 severity and Vit. D status.

  63. Wilson Timothy

    Hi Dr. Kendrick –

    I so enjoy your clear thinking and rational approach to the COVID. I loved your book “The Great Cholesterol Con” and am reading it a second time through. There is so much good information in that book!

    Here is an interesting take on a treatment that evidently works quite well for COVID:

    I have requested Dr. Bartlett’s research paper from the commentator, Debbie Georgatos and her e-mail is

    I’d be interested to know your response to Dr. Bartlett’s work.

    With Kind Regards,

    Dr. Timothy Wilson San Diego, CA

  64. jeanirvin

    Making vitamin D through sun exposure needs cholesterol. Could cholesterol lowering medication explain some of the anomalies where areas with high sunshine levels are still not showing lower deaths.



    On Thu, Jul 9, 2020 at 4:44 AM Dr. Malcolm Kendrick wrote:

    > Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: “9th July 2020 A guest article I was sent > this piece on Vitamin D and COVID by a reader of this blog. I thought it > was very good and asked them if they minded me posting it. They said fine, > but they wish to remain anonymous. Not everyone likes the gl” >

  66. JH

    Footnotes 2 & 3 on the email version are exactly the same & for 3 Is not the correct reference. Has been sorted in online version.

  67. Dr. John H

    Very Interesting:

    “You can’t see them or feel them, but millions of airborne viruses are wafting around you each day, and billions more microbial travelers are descending everywhere on Earth, after riding air currents around the world.”

    “For the first time, scientists have analyzed the vast quantities of viruses that are swept up and swirling about in the atmosphere, sometimes traveling thousands of miles from their point of origin before seeing the planet’s surface again.”

    “The scientists discovered a deluge of airborne microbes, finding that a single square meter of the planet’s surface could be showered with hundreds of millions of viruses — and tens of millions of bacteria — in a single day.”

    “It’s quite conceivable to have a virus swept up into the atmosphere on one continent and deposited on another,” he said.”

    1. AhNotepad

      Dr. John H, That is a very interesting article, and is supported by knowledge about flu outbreaks centuries ago, when travel was far less than today. If that article is accurate, then it makes several of the other articles on Livescience redundant, since there is little benefit in knowing how far droplets travel, or discussions about whether the virus is airborne.

    2. David Bailey

      Thanks Dr John H, for that article.

      I am trying to understand what it means to have such a constant swarm around us. Does it mean that when someone catches ordinary flu (say), it is more useful to think that they have encountered an unusually high concentration of flu virus particles, rather than to think that they have encountered one virus particle – or even a few. Indeed, is it better to think of viruses as comprising a gas that infects people if they breath in more than a certain number of particles in a day (say).

      Looked at that way, a test that is sensitive enough to detect a single viral particle is essentially useless for practical purposes. That makes the lockdown look pretty idiotic, doesn’t it?

    3. Gary Ogden

      Dr. John H: Thanks. Viruses are ubiquitous and cannot be stopped except by wearing one of those biohazard suits. Best argument yet that masks are ridiculous except to bank robbers.

  68. David Bailey


    Can I suggest that next time you hand your blog over to an anonymous contributor, you give him a name of some sort – Fred, or Popeye would do – just so people can refer to him by name – it would save quite a bit of confusion!

  69. Chris Williams


    Can you help me figure out the correct daily intake of D3. I could not see it easily in the ref article which was quite heavy research speak. I have been taking 4 drops (10ug) of D3 which the label says is 200% of daily intake but I’m wondering if this is enough – the Gradsrootshealth calculator suggest 40ug as daily intake?

    Sorry to bother you with this and appreciate your advice.

    I recently had a heart attack and 2 stents fitted in the anterior corona artery as a result and with Covid around I have found your recent Posts on D3 engaging.

    Many thanks Chris

    On Thu, 9 Jul 2020 at 09:45, Dr. Malcolm Kendrick wrote:

    > Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: “9th July 2020 A guest article I was sent > this piece on Vitamin D and COVID by a reader of this blog. I thought it > was very good and asked them if they minded me posting it. They said fine, > but they wish to remain anonymous. Not everyone likes the gl” >

    1. Simon C

      I’m not Malcolm but I’ll chime in anyway.

      The rda for vitamin d is way too low. A dose of at least 2000iu daily is more like it. This is still a relatively low dose but will slowly get you out of the deficient zone. 10000iu daily for a short spell would obviously boost levels quicker.

      Not medical advice……

      1. JDPatten

        There cannot be a Recommended Daily Allowance for D3 supplement intake. There are way too many variables.
        Where’s the sun in your part of the world?
        How much clothing do you wear?
        How well does your skin function at synthesis?
        Supplements – above & beyond the sun:
        How available is the D3 in your chosen brand?
        How well does your system absorb it?
        Are you dealing with the possible effects of high blood calcium levels due to high D levels? Consider K2 supplementation.

        Each person’s D level is theirs alone. What is it??
        Go and get a 25(OH)D blood test after dosing yourself for a few weeks. Adjust that dose according to the test results.
        That’s your RDA and only yours.

        1. Simon C

          You are correct. However, most people don’t know any of this and go along with government set rda which in America is 600iu a day.

    1. AhNotepad

      benjab4aolcom, it depends if it is so bad in Arizona, or if, as it seems in many other places, they are Doctoring Data. I can recommend the book. Since this plandemic was declared I don’t trust any official figures

    2. Simon C

      People probably avoid spending too much time outside if it’s too hot. Or they whack sun screen on.

      You might assume Spain and Italy would have higher vitamin d levels than Finland and sundry Scandinavian countries but you’d be wrong.

    3. Gary Ogden

      benjab4aolcom: I suspect three things about Arizona: 1. The increased number of cases is at least in part an artifact of the increased number of tests. 2. Arizona (like Florida) has a higher percentage of elderly than the U.S. average, and the elderly are the only ones at significant risk. 3. Arizona, and the other states which appear to be in worse shape than others, have yet to reach their HIT (herd immunity threshold). I think, once we have good data and analysis of that data, we will see that there has been no pandemic, except one of fear. It will likely be 2021 before we have the proper analysis and correct figures on excess deaths. Meanwhile taxpayers will be out many $billions given to the pharmaceutical industry for worthless treatments, or unnecessary and potentially dangerous vaccines, with future generations on the hook for paying for this absolutely colossal stupidity by our political leaders.

  70. bigfella2007

    Excellent article.
    I know, from personal experience, the health advantages of high vitamin D levels.
    I’m 51 and about 7yrs ago I started to feel generally unwell. Aching joints, restless legs, not sleeping etc. After countless visits to the doctors, and being prescribed Pregabalin, cocodamol, tramadol (36 tablets a day at one point), I was diagnosed with Fibromyalgia. I still managed to work full time but was like a zombie. I was having acupuncture too. The pain wasn’t going away.
    It was when the doctor offered me morphine that I thought this can’t be right.
    I went home and did some reading on vitamin D diffeciency then arranged my doctor to test me for my Vitamin D level. She tried to persuade me not to have it done saying it wouldn’t show anything out of the ordinary. I insisted. My result came back showing I had 7nmol/L. I read that a good level was about 75. The doctor gave me 20,000iu Vit D tablets a day for 2 weeks.
    during this time I read a book on boosting Vitamin D3 called “The Miraculous Results of Extremely High Doses of Vitamin D3” by Jeff T. Bowles. After the 2 weeks I felt a little better. Not as much pain.
    I then decided to follow what the book was saying and started taking 50,000iu a day along with Vitamin K2. I did this for 1 month then dropped back to 10,000iu a day. I gradually started to ween myself off my other painkillers. That was hard work. Some very dark days.
    Within 2 months I was off ALL medication and feeling amazing compared to what I felt like. My mind was clearer and started enjoying life.
    I still take 10,000iu a day and the vitamin K2. I had a hip replacement a couple of years ago and the specialist noted that I had “excellent” vitamin D levels.
    Once a year I super boost for one month, going up to 50,000iu a day and the equivalent K2.
    More research needs doing on how vitamin D3 can affect our health. When I went back to see my doc and told her what I had done she said “you know more about it than I ever would do”.
    My issue was that she was very quick to put me on all kinds of opiods and painkillers, when all it could have taken was a simple vitamin D test.

    1. Simon C

      Are you from the UK?

      Doctors rarely look at vitamin or mineral deficiencies over here. My sister has been vegetarian for over twenty years and in the same time frame has suffered terrible depression and other psychological conditions. To the extent she’s had ECT.

      Nobody bothered to delve very deep into her dietary habits. A few years ago I got her on a good b complex capsule, separate magnesium capsules and vitamin d and lo and behold her symptoms improved dramatically. Obviously, not cured but much much better.

      Begs the question : how many millions of peoples lives would be improved by simple supplementation?

      1. bigfella2007

        Yes I’m from the UK. Totally agree with you on this.
        The older generation and the immune compromised could have been better prepared for coronavirus if education in supplements was better. Not just for doctors but for school children to prepare them, and give them a better understanding of supplements. unfortunately GMO of crops, fast food and ready meals has ruined the average persons ability to maintain a good level of health

        1. AhNotepad

          Repeated programmes on the BBC haven’t helped either. A presenter like Sian Williams hosting an exercise where oldish people were persuaded to give up their supplements. After all, they don’t do anything, they just make expensive pee. After some time, I think was around six weeks, they wee asked if they felt any worse, and none did. There you are, you don’t need supplements. Well what about five years down the line deficient in vitamin C and D? What damage could have been prevented? Keep on with the statins (Bet they weren’t asked to give them up).

  71. jonny thrombosis

    Malcolm, Firstly thanks for helping to keep me ‘sane’ amidst this covid madness, I read all you blogs & share them as much as I can. Also just finished reading your fantastic book, ‘Doctoring Data’ which U thoroughly enjoyed & which I’ll revisit often I’m sure. Re read the section on vaccines yesterday & the section on ME/CFS & found both sections greatly interesting. Coincidentally I just obtained, ‘Plague of Corruption’ by that other pariah if medical science Dr Judy Mikovits & in the opening pages am reading an account by J F K Jr about her work relating to ME/CFS, its fascinating stuff, if you haven’t read it I highly recommend it, In think it is right up your street.

    Keep up the good work, I’m off to buy some D3 tablets now, friendly regards, John Thornborrow

  72. Don

    I was bedridden for over two years; long story. But I began researching health and what I could do for myself because the doctors offered me nothing. It’s how I stumbled on Dr. Kendrick, among others. Thank God, and of course, thank you Dr. Kendrick! I changed my diet, began taking many supplements, donate blood to reduce iron, and get some exercise. I am healthier now at 56 than I have been in decades. I used to suffer seasonal depression, allergies, many colds etc. All gone since I got my D levels up and take 15-20 grams Vitamin C. As I write this, I’m on vacation, hiking in Red River Gorge, KY.
    Anecdotal, I know, and I’m sure I’m preaching to the choir here, but to any wondering about taking Vitamin D and other supplements, you have very little to lose (vitamins are cheap!) and good health to gain.

  73. elizabethhart

    Re vitamin D and nursing homes…and Sweden, I’ve had a rapid response published on The BMJ, accessible via this link:

    Also posting here for information…

    Looking at Sweden, COVID-19 and vitamin D…

    Dear Editor

    Most of the reported COVID-19 deaths in Sweden are in the elderly – is there a problem with vitamin D deficiency in this age group?

    Latest reported deaths in Sweden are 5,526 (pop. 10.23 million), with 1,428 deaths in people over 90. 2,300 deaths are reported for people in the age group 80-90. So that’s 3,728 of the deaths. Then there are reportedly 1,194 deaths in the age group 70-79. That’s 4,922 deaths across the age group 70 to over 90. There are 379 deaths reported across the ages 60-69. And 156 deaths in the age group 50-59. With a total of 69 deaths across the ages of 0-49 years.[1]

    So most of the deaths are in the elderly age group 70 to 90, i.e. 4,922 deaths, people who are also likely to have comorbidities.

    Some previous studies have identified vitamin D deficiency in Swedish nursing homes, see for example “Vitamin D deficiency was common among nursing home residents and associated with dementia: a cross sectional study of 545 Swedish nursing home residents”[2], and “Vitamin D deficiency in elderly people in Swedish nursing homes is associated with increased mortality”[3].

    Considering Sweden as a whole, it seems most of the population remains alive and not adversely affected by SARS-CoV-2 in the prime of their lives. Perhaps Sweden has made the right decision not to grossly disrupt its society and the lives of millions of people with draconian lockdowns?

    Internationally, the focus now should be on finding effective treatments and strategies for the sick, i.e. generally elderly people. And recommending long-term practical preventive measures for the population generally, to reduce the prospect of the illnesses which exacerbate the effects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and enhance health, e.g. promoting optimum vitamin D levels.

    1. As at 10 July 2020 on the Statista webpage: Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths in Sweden in 2020, by age groups:
    2. Arnljots, R., Thorn, J., Elm, M. et al. Vitamin D deficiency was common among nursing home residents and associated with dementia: a cross sectional study of 545 Swedish nursing home residents. BMC Geriatr 17, 229 (2017).
    3. Maria Samefors et al. Vitamin D deficiency in elderly people in Swedish nursing homes is associated with increased mortality. European Journal of Endocrinology. May 2014. 170:5, 667-675.

      1. elizabethhart

        I’m trying to discover data on Covid-19 deaths in England and Wales by age group, but I’m having trouble understanding the statistics on the ONS website, it’s difficult to glean the figures I’m after:

        I found deaths in Sweden via this website, and the information is very straightforward: Number of coronavirus deaths in Sweden, by age groups (as at 13 July 2020):

        I’ve made an enquiry asking if ONS can provide data on death by age groups in a similar straightforward and transparent manner.

        Anyone else able to understand the ONS website?

        1. Jerome Savage

          Sorry, unable to help Elizabet, but a doc on BBCR4 this evening, one of many speaking on the ethics of ethnic profiling to determine risk, spoke of the best medical data base in the world, that of the NHS, referring to an individual number system.

  74. Charles Gale

    Hi Elizabeth

    Congratulations on getting your response published in the BMJ!

    I’ve followed your link and had a quick look and it’s reassuring that you are in such company. Here are a few contributors:

    – President of the British Soc for Ecological Medicine
    – UK editor Age of Autism
    – Director of NICE
    – A Professor of Cellular Biology.

    Now to settle down and read it all.

  75. Dr. Rob Pankratz

    Have you seen the literature on inhaled steroid treatments? Are aware of this physician who has had remarkable success with nebulized desonide?

    1. AhNotepad

      It’s important to understand anti-bodies only indicate an attack that got through. No anti-bodies may indicate no attack, or it could indicate innate immunity was functioning, so anti-bodies were never needed.

    2. AhNotepad

      While looking at the Lyons-Weller article I noted:

      2. Masks Don’t Really Work Outside of Healthcare Systems.

      A meta-analysis on masks concluded that masks should work in the healthcare setting, but the three studies that focused on the utility of masks to protect the wearer outside of the healthcare system? Two of three studies say “no effect” – and the one that is significant is only marginally significant, and oh, also (like all of the other studies) only focused on the ability of masks to protect the wearer.

      And, for good measure, N95 does NOT mean they stop 95% of droplets, as incorrectly reported by “Ask Ethan” on Forbes – it means they can block viruses no smaller than 5 microns. SARS-CoV-2 is 30 times smaller than N95.

      In a BSL3 laboratory, workers must wear much more effective equipment that an N95 mask, or a handkerchief, or a shirt collar, to block viruses the size of coronaviruses. Clearly we are being socially conditioned to submit to pressure to conform to an agenda to accept the spate of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines as the living Savior of society. Oh, if only that could even be theoretically true. Unfortuantely, CDC, Fauci and apparently FDA also forgot that

      There is a good reason why a huge number of scientists are calling upon Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences for retraction of a bullshit study that claimed to show that masks are critical for reducing community transmission. There is actually a ton of science that shows that they do not.

      It occurred to me that “utility of masks” was more appropriately termed “the futility of masks”.

  76. Bart Lakeman

    For the difference of ‘covid19 death’ in Latin America explained by their variety of geneitic origin in their ability of Vit D uptake (via light). To this there is another probabe cause: There highest uptake of the flu vaccine in those over 65 yrs. is in Mexico (82.3%) and Brazil (71%), and is lower in Argentinia who mostly foccus there vacination program on pergenant woman; a risk group for influenza mortality (with or without vaccination). Flu vacination appears to hinder the IGI imunity cross reaction. Yet this ability has also due to vit D uptake.

  77. Edmund Fordham

    For the technically-minded, this article marshals global data on sunlight, C19 death rates etc and compares causal and acausal models (mathematically novel) in a way that demonstrates a causal – not merely correlated – association between VitD and C19 severity. It also has hard things to say about the religion of Randomised Clinical Trials.

  78. elizabethhart

    The impact of host resistance on cumulative mortality and the threshold of herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2

    Click to access 2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf

    It is widely believed that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) required to prevent a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 is in excess of 50% for any epidemiological setting. Here, we demonstrate that HIT may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses. The drop in HIT is proportional to the fraction of the population resistant only when that fraction is effectively segregated from the general population; however, when mixing is random, the drop in HIT is more precipitous. Significant reductions in expected mortality can also be observed in settings where a fraction of the population is resistant to infection. These results help to explain the large degree of regional variation observed in seroprevalence and cumulative deaths and suggest that sufficient herd-immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave.

  79. Lance Droy

    I read “The Optimal Dose” by Judson Somerville. This is another MD who is going outside the medical wisdom, to come up with radical treatments. He treats his patients, and himself, with a massive,. 36,000 IU, dose of D3, and claims remarkable results, including painless weight loss. While 36,000 is wildly over the recommended dosage, the lowest amount associated with any toxic results is 40,000. I have investigated Dr Somerville online, and his credentials are impressive. I have not, so far, found any major criticism of him, or his theories. The benefits claimed in the appear, as does Dr Somerville, to be amazing.


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