30th December 2020
I have not written much about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, written many hundreds of years ago.
In it, Dante describes the outcasts, who took no side in the rebellion of angels. They live in the vestibule. Not in heaven, not in hell, forever unclassified. They reside on the shores of the Acheron. Naked and futile, they race around through a hellish mist in eternal pursuit of an elusive, wavering banner, symbolic of their pursuit of ever-shifting self-interest.
I find this description of the desperate pursuit of an elusive wavering banner rings rather true. This, it seems, is pretty much the place we have arrived at. Which banner have you decided to follow?
The ‘COVID19 s the most terrible infection ever, and we must do everything in our power to stop it, whatever the cost’ banner.
Or the ‘What on earth are we doing? This is no worse than a bad flu, and we are destroying the world economy, stripping away basic human rights and killing more people than we are saving’ banner.
There may be others.
Between these two, main, completely incompatible positions, lies the truth. It is in pretty poor shape. It has been crushed, and bent out of shape, smashed, and left as a broken heap in the corner. I search where I can, to find the fragments, in an attempt to bring together a picture that makes some kind of sense.
But what to believe? Who to believe?
I feel somewhat like Rene Descartes. In order to find the ineluctable truth he scraped everything away until he was left with ‘Cogito, ergo sum’. ‘I think, therefore I am.’
I have stripped away at the accuracy of PCR COVID19 testing. I found myself left with nothing I could make any sense of. I hacked down to establish the way that COVID19 deaths are recorded. All I found were assumptions and difficulties.
Did someone die with COVID19, of COVID19 – or did it have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with COVID19? Who knows? I certainly don’t, and I wrote some of the death certificates myself.
Have we overestimated deaths, or underestimated deaths? I do not know … and so it goes on.
So, what do I know? I know that COVID19 exists – or I am as certain of this as I can be. Was it a natural mutation from a bat, or was it created in a laboratory? Well, I suppose it doesn’t really matter. It’s here, and there is no chance that any Government, anywhere, would ever admit responsibility for creating the damned thing. So, we will never know. If you asked me to bet, I would say it was created in a lab, then escaped by accident.
Is it deadlier than influenza? Well, it is certainly deadlier than some strains of influenza. Indeed, most strains. However, Spanish flu was estimated to have killed fifty million, when the world’s population was about a fifth of what it is now. So, COVID19 is definitely less deadly than that one. About as deadly as the influenzas of 1957 and 1967. Probably.
Will it mutate into something worse? Who knows.
Will the current vaccines work on mutated strains? Who knows.
Can it be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers? Who knows.
How effective are the current vaccines going to be? Who knows.
What are we left with?
At the beginning, I kept relatively quiet on how deadly COVID19 would prove to be. Because I didn’t know. The figures raged up and down. The infection fatality rate become a battle scene, with warriors lined up on either side to defend their positions.
I even got attacked by factcheckers, the self-appointed know-it-alls who are, it seems, capable of judging on all matters of scientific dispute. Truly, the Gods have descended to live amongst us. Those who can determine what is true, and what is not. No need for any further clinical trials, or any more scientific studies of any sort, ever. We just need to ask the Fact Checkers for the answer, to any given question.
Anyway, it appeared that tens of thousands died in some countries, almost none in others. What I was waiting to see, was the impact on the one outcome that you cannot alter, or fudge. The outcome that is overall mortality i.e. the chances of dying, of anything.
I did this because, when it comes to recording deaths from a specific illness, things can go in and out of fashion. A couple of years ago I looked at deaths from sepsis. At one time this was a condition of far lower priority. Doctors didn’t routinely search for it, or routinely record it, on death certificates.
Sepsis is an infection that gets into the blood, toxins are released, and people die. Everyone knew it happened. Or at least I hope they did.
Then, all of a sudden, there was a gigantic push to look for it more diligently, diagnose it more, treat it better. I think this was generally a good thing. Sepsis is eminently treatable, if you think to look for it, and lives can be saved. We now have initiatives like ‘Sepsis six’ and warnings that pop up on computers. ‘Have you considered sepsis,’ and suchlike. I love it … not. Because I do not love being told how to think, and do my job, by a computer algorithm programmed with ‘zero risk’ as their touchstone. But, hey ho.
In 2013, in the UK, a report was published by the health ombudsman ‘Time to Act – severe sepsis, rapid diagnosis and treatment saves lives.’ As the report stated.
‘Sepsis is a more common reason for hospital admission than heart attack – and has a higher mortality.’ The UK Sepsis Trust 1
That last statement is somewhat disingenuous, as many people with sepsis are very elderly, often with multiple morbidities, and suchlike. They were probably going to die, shortly, from something else.
Anyway. With all this activity, with all this increased sepsis recognition and treatment, you would expect the rate of deaths from sepsis to fall. It did not. The rate has gone up, by around 30% since 2013. Does this mean there is far more sepsis going about? Or, that it is just more often written on death certificates? I suggest the latter. I use this example, simply to make it clear that even the cause of death written on a death certificate is far from rock solid evidence.
With COVID19, this is a massive problem. In the UK, and several other countries if you have had a COVID19 positive test (which may, or may not, be accurate) and you die within twenty-eight days of that positive test, you will be recorded as a COVID19 death. I do not know much for sure about COVID19, but I do know that is just complete nonsense.
There are so many cases where – even if the COVID19 test was accurate – COVID19 would have had nothing whatsoever to do with the death. Another thing known, or at least we probably know, is that the vast majority of people who die had many other things wrong with them.
In the US, the Centre of Disease Control (CDC) found that ninety-four per cent of people who died of COVID19 ‘related deaths’ had other significant diseases (co-morbidities) 2. This ninety-four per-cent figures would only be the co-morbidities that were known about – who knows what lurked beneath? Especially as people stopped doing post-mortems (i.e., autopsies in the US).
So yes, they had COVID19 (or at least they had a positive test – which may not be the same thing), but they were often very old, and already severely ill. Using an extreme example, someone with terminal cancer who is a week from death, catches COVID19 in hospital, and dies. What killed them? The statistics say COVID19. I say, bollocks.
When I started in medicine, ‘bronchopneumonia’ (a bad chest infection) used to be known as the ‘old man’s friend.’ For those who were very old, and frail, often demented, lying in care homes, often incontinent, a chest infection represented a reasonably painless way to die.
Very often we would not actively treat it, instead we allowed for a peaceful death. Indeed, this still happens. Less so now, as someone, somewhere, often a relative from a country far, far, away – who has not visited for years – is far more likely to sue you.
Did they really die of bronchopneumonia? You could argue yes, you could argue no. Yes, it was the thing that finally pushed them over the edge. No, they were already slowly dying as their body gave out. In the end, what does anyone actually die of? My Scottish grannie, who lived to one hundred and two, used to say ‘they die frae want of breath.’ Entirely accurate, but, alas, also completely useless.
So, what you need to do, is look beyond what is written on death certificates. You need to look at what is happening to the overall mortality. Whilst you can argue endlessly, pointlessly, about specific causes of death. What you cannot argue about is whether or not someone is alive, or dead. Even I usually get this one right. No pulse, no breathing, no reaction of the pupils to light, no response to pain… and suchlike. Yup, dead. Now… what they die of? Um… let me think.
Thus, I have tended to look to EuroMOMO. The European Mortality Monitoring project. As they say, of themselves:
‘The overall objective of the original European Mortality Monitoring Project was to design a routine public health mortality monitoring system aimed at detecting and measuring, on a real-time basis, excess number of deaths related to influenza and other possible public health threats across participating European Countries.
Mortality is a basic indicator of health. Therefore, understanding its epidemiology is fundamental for effective public health planning and action.
Mortality monitoring becomes pivotal during influenza or other pandemics for several reasons. In a severe pandemic, mortality monitoring can be a robust way to monitor the pandemics progression and its public health impact when other systems are failing, due to an overburdened health care sector. Decision makers will require data on the pandemics impact and on deaths by age and geographical area in various stages of the pandemic. Mortality monitoring can provide such estimates, which will be important to guide and prioritize health service response and decision-making, i.e. use of antivirals and vaccines.’ 3
Here are the data that you can therefore, pretty much, fully rely on. It is where I go to see what is really happening across Europe. Not all of Europe, as some countries do not participate. However, there are more than enough, to get a good picture. It encompasses key countries such as Spain, Italy, the UK (split into four separate countries), Sweden and suchlike.
Here is the graph of overall mortality for all ages, in all countries. The graph starts at the beginning of 2017 and carries on to almost the end of 2020.
As you can see, in each winter there is an increase in deaths. In 2020, nothing much happened at the start of the year, then we had – what must have been – the COVID19 spike. The tall pointy bit around week 15.
It started in late March and was pretty much finished by mid-May. Now, we are in winter, and the usual winter spike appears. It seems to be around the same size as winter 2017/18. It also seems to have passed the peak and is now falling. But it could jump up again. [The figures in the most recent weeks can always be a bit inaccurate, as it can take some time for all the data to arrive]
Two things stand out. First, there was an obvious ‘COVID19 spike’. Second, what we are seeing at present does not differ greatly from previous years. The normal winter spike in deaths.
If we split this down into individual countries, this reasonably clear pattern falls apart.
Here are the figures from England
Unlike the first graph, the scale on the left is not absolute numbers. It is a thing called the Z-score. Which means standard deviation from the mean. Sorry, maths. If the Z-score goes above five, this means something significant is happening. The red, upper, dotted line is Z > 5. As you can see, despite the howls of anguish from England about COVID19 overwhelming the country, we are really not seeing much at all.
What of Sweden, that pariah country? They did not fully lock-down, the irresponsible fools (all they did was follow WHO guidance – by the way), and we are now told they are suffering terribly, they should have enforced far more rigid lockdown, their ‘experiment’ failed etc. etc. COVID19 shall have its vengeance. Or to quote Arnie – I’ll be back.
As you can see, nothing much happening in Sweden either.
Then, if you look further, there are anomalies all over the place. Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and did exactly the same things as the rest of the UK with regard to lockdown, masks etc. At least it did in the earlier part of the year. However, it shows a completely different pattern to England. Or, to be fully accurate, it shows no pattern at all. No waves, and nobody drowning.
What of Slovenia?
As you can see absolutely nothing happened earlier in the year in Slovenia. Now, it has the biggest spike of all – apart from, maybe, Switzerland. Earlier in the year it was held up as a great example of how brilliantly effective masks were. Now… you don’t hear so much about masks. Maybe masks only work in months beginning with M. [Maybe, whisper it, they don’t work at all].
So, what have I learned from euroMOMO? First that it appears to have made absolutely no difference if a country locked down hard, and early, or did not. Everyone points at Norway and Finland as examples of great and early government action, and how wonderful everything would have been if we had done the same.
Well, look up at Northern Ireland. Then look at Finland
Spot the difference. There is none.
Of course, much of the most heated debate surrounded what happened during the so-called first wave. Who dealt with it well, or badly. Now, everyone in Europe is doing much the same things. Lockdown, restrictions on travel, restrictions on meeting other people, everyone wearing masks, etc. etc. Yet some countries are having a new wave, and others are not.
There is a special prize for anyone who can match up the severity of restrictions in various countries, to the Z-score. I say this, because no correlation exists.
So, again, what have I learned about COVID19? I learned that all Governments are floundering about, all claiming to have exerted some sort of control over this disease and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. In truth, they have achieved nothing. As restrictions and lockdowns have become more severe, in many cases the number of infections has simply risen and risen, completely unaffected by anything that has been done.
The official solution is, of course, more restrictions. ‘We just haven’t restricted people enough!’ Sigh. When something doesn’t work, the answer is not to keep doing it with even greater fervour. The real answer is to stop doing it and try something else instead.
I have also learned that, in most countries, COVID19 appears to be seasonal. It went away – everywhere – in the summer. It came back in the autumn/winter, as various viruses do.
On its return is has been, generally, far less deadly. Much you would expect. The most vulnerable died on first exposure, and far fewer people had any resistance to it, at all. Now, a number of people do have some immunity, and may of the vulnerable are already dead.
Which means that, in this so-called second wave COVID19 is of no greater an issue than a moderately bad flu season.
If I were to recommend actions. I would recommend that we stop testing – unless someone is admitted to hospital and is seriously ill. Mass testing is simply causing mass panic and achieves absolutely nothing. At great cost. We should also just get on with our lives as before. We should just vaccinate those at greatest risk of dying, the elderly and vulnerable, and put this rather embarrassing episode of mad banner waving behind us.
Hopefully, in time, we will learn something. Which is that we should not, ever, run about panicking, following the madly waved banners… ever again. However, I suspect that we will. This pandemic is going to be a model for all mass panicking stupidity in the future. Because to do otherwise, would be to admit that we made a pig’s ear of it this time. Far too many powerful reputations at stake to allow that.
1: https://www.ombudsman.org.uk/sites/default/files/Time_to_act_report.pdf
10 Points to Ponder as 2020 draws to a close ...
1. The dumbest thing I ever bought was a 2020 planner.
2. 2019: Stay away from negative people.
. 2020: Stay away from positive people.
3. The world has turned upside down.
Old folks are sneaking out of the house & their kids are yelling at them to stay indoors!
4. This morning I saw a neighbour talking to her cat. It was obvious she thought her cat understood her. I came to my house & told my dog…. We had a good laugh.
5. Every few days try your jeans on just to make sure they fit.
Pyjamas will have you believe all is well in the kingdom.
6. Does anyone know if we can take showers yet or should we just keep washing our hands?
7. I never thought the comment, “I wouldn’t touch him/her with a 6-foot pole” would become a national policy, but here we are!
8. I need to practice social-distancing ….from the refrigerator.
9. I hope the weather is good tomorrow for my trip out to the bins!
10. Never in a million years could I have imagined I would go into a bank with a mask on and ask for money.🤣🤣
Brilliant AHNotepad lol
Thank you for being a voice of reason in this current season of insanity and hysteria. Very much enjoyed this blog post, and it’s great to hear that level-headed medics do exist! (And I’m allowed to say that as a fellow medic).
No, probably not. You will be isolated and sent for mental reassignment.
An excellent article and written so that most folk can understand it; thank you for taking the time to write it. I think the elephant in the room will be the long-time costs and fallout from those who have been kept in isolation for months. Un-diagnosed and untreated conditions aside, I fear we will start to see an explosion of mental health issues across all age ranges (I write ‘explosion’ not for effect but more so out of anticipation). Will the Govt assume these premature deaths and conditions to be covid related? The Govt and official sources are unlikely to attribute any post covid rise to its policies but there must be a factor somewhere.
Interesting article. Noticed some of the same myself, but can you poost where your graphs come from? Can’t find that data.
Not so worried by the medicos as I am by those nihilistic kids in the garage with their CRISPR kits.
As for this blog post, bang on point. The folk dyeing are the ones most likely to die even in a year of no COVID-19. Extra deaths tell us something but the oldies dying doesn’t really tell us much at all.
Thanks for putting this up.
sorry im tech thick spelling no very great either…. this is pantomime season infact its been a pantomime since 2020 started WAKE UPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP
Some might argue that the big spike in week 15 of 2020 is in part due to the milder rise in the winter 2019 morbidities. Those folks ‘dodged the bullet’ in 2019 only to have their luck run out in 2020…but hey, what do I know, I’m not an epidemiologist – I only play one from the keyboard.
Agree – this is outstanding!
Love your analysis that speaks sanity – love the ponders and they lifted my spirits – my ponder for the year gone by is why o why did the government not shield the vulnerable
I don’t think that it is the job of the government to shield anyone, is it? Isn’t that the job of each one of us, in our unique position. The job of governments, if they have any, re illness, is to get their facts straight (as much as there are straight facts known) and let people act accordingly. Governments probably should close borders (inc airports) under some circumstances, or arrivals from specific places, where appropriate, but other than that I think they should keep out of the lives of HM’s subjects.
> I don’t think that it is the job of the government to shield anyone, is it?
Hold on, that’s the magical argument for disbanding the army, navy, air force, and police.
AhNotepad. Thankyou so much. We are splitting our sides open in our house. Fabulous!!!!.
Ah Notepad………you made my day. Funniest, wittiest thing I’ve read in god knows how long! Thank you! Hope you don’t mind me copying and sending to friends who could also do with a good laugh?!
Gery, not at all, that’s what I did 😂
Well done Notepad. You made me smile.
Oh, thank you! Sharp wit and so on target.
Just brilliant. So nice to realise I’m not truly mad. Agreed. 💯
AhNotepad – thank you. That’s a dose of perfection medicine for our locked down, buggered up woes. 🤣
Absolute, Pure GOLD !
“This is NOT a holdup!” 🙂
such a good laugh
AHN Thanks.
I took liberties & plagiarized.
Thanks for a great article to finish 2020 on. As Einstein said ‘Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.’ I suspect if he was alive then he would use 2020 would a shining example of the latter….
great write up. I agree that we pos can influence R by a small portion of its natural variance (fluctuation from 0.6 to 6). What I disagree with in looking at excess deaths is assuming no difference between saving 2 weeks of life and 20 years. Yes a person aged 60 with comorbidities will eventually die aged 80 when medicare provided. This person dies at age 60 only on the fact of contracting C19. I think the only way to look at this and be accurate is to look at lost “years of life” and not per each life lost. If we have arrived at data showing no significant years of life were lost above logic fully applies.
I agree. But my life contains only twenty four hours in each day.
Bartlomiej, Dr Sebastian Rushworth did some calculations on that here: https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/11/29/how-many-years-of-life-are-lost-to-covid/
If masks don’t work, what is the explanation for this? That we wear them incorrectly? Wear the wrong kinds? Or that no mask can stop a virus? Or this virus?
If masks made a difference then why have they not made a difference? In France mask warning become mandatory, both inside and out, from August 21st. After this rate rate of infections rose from 5000/day to 100,000/day. Yes, I know the immediate counter-argument. It would have been worse if they hadn’t. I don’t know this, nor does anyone else, all I know is what actually happened. Not, what might have happened.
What is the science of why they fail to prevent spread? Why don’t they work?
What is the science that they do?
Malcolm, that’s such a good answer compared to my wordy diatribe.
Rob Friedman,
Here is some science for you. Is it “settled science”? Hell, no, but it’s thought-provoking.
http://stan-heretic.blogspot.com/2020/11/not-wearing-surgical-masks-reduced.html
Here’s a testimonial from a veterinary surgeon.
https://high-fat-nutrition.blogspot.com/2020/12/igg-iga-and-sniffing-virus.html?showComment=1607843944844#c8279773654711416745
My own (layman) guess? Masks vs no masks is not really a binary condition. Too many factors to consider. Some of the ones I can think of (never mind the ones I can’t):
The nature, quality, and condition of the mask.
The transmissibility of the thing “masked” (will the virus penetrate the mask? Under what circumstances?)
The “skill” of the wearer (are they treating the mask correctly?)
The contagiousness / susceptibility of the wearer.
The environment the people are in (outdoors, indoors with good or poor ventilation)
Length of time exposed to infected air.
Lack of eye protection (yes, the eyes may be an entry point for Sars-CoV-2)
For all the studies which have been done, I think the “acid test” would be to mask up some demonstrably sick people and have them breathe at close range on demonstrably healthy people. See who gets sick. They did this in 1918 to more than a dozen people during the huge pandemic (except they weren’t wearing masks). No one got sick. Of course, this study would never be done today. We really don’t know much more than we did in 1918, however “modern and smart” we think we are now.
And, by the way, I don’t understand who would down-vote Dr Kendrick’s comments on masking. Masking is grossly unsettled science, virtually more religion than science.
Thanks for sending. It’s hard for a layman to know how to respond to the split between opinions. Logically, wear a mask: if it’s ineffective, there’s no harm in it.
It’s a branch of science called, politics.
Two possibilities come to mind. The first is that the virus is so very small, although it is transmitted in droplets of water so perhaps the size of the virus isn’t the be all and end all of the matter. The second factor seems to me to be the fact that people touch their masks. If they have already got the virus they will have possibly deposited it on the mask surface and touching that surface is now a means of spreading what they have. If they don’t have the virus then touching infected shop products (or another source of the virus) before touching their mask means that they have possibly now deposited viral particles a few millimetres from their nose… um… not a good idea.
Caroline, that applies if the virus conforms to germ theory. If Bechamp is correct ant it’s about the terrain, I think evidenced by Edgar Hope-Simpson, then masks are pointless, as are most other interventions.
Yes, indeed.
Here’s an explanation — there is a video presentation that goes with this but of course that has been removed from Youtube because it ‘violates our terms of service’
Epidemiologist: Coronavirus could be ‘exterminated’ if lockdowns were lifted
‘Going outdoors is what stops every respiratory disease’
A veteran scholar of epidemiology has warned that the ongoing lockdowns throughout the United States and the rest of the world are almost certainly just prolonging the coronavirus outbreak rather than doing anything to truly mitigate it.
Knut Wittkowski, previously the longtime head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at the Rockefeller University in New York City, said in an interview with the Press and the Public Project that the coronavirus could be “exterminated” if we permitted most people to lead normal lives and sheltered the most vulnerable parts of society until the danger had passed.
“What people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary,” he said.
“With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children.
So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated,” he added.
Wittkowski argued that the standard cycle of respiratory diseases is a two-week outbreak, including a peak, after which “it’s gone.” He pointed out that even in a regime of “social distancing,” the virus will still find ways to spread, just more slowly:
You cannot stop the spread of a respiratory disease within a family, and you cannot stop it from spreading with neighbors, with people who are delivering, who are physicians—anybody. People are social, and even in times of social distancing, they have contacts, and any of those contacts could spread the disease. It will go slowly, and so it will not build up herd immunity, but it will happen. And it will go on forever unless we let it go.
Asked about Anthony Fauci, the White House medical expert who for weeks has been predicting significant numbers of COVID-19 deaths in America as well as major ongoing disruptions to daily life possibly for years, Wittkowski replied: “Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science.”
https://ratical.org/PandemicParallaxView/PerspectivesOnPandemic-II.html
About the Author
Dr. Wittkowski received his PhD in computer science from the University of Stuttgart and his ScD (Habilitation) in Medical Biometry from the Eberhard-Karls-University Tuüingen, both Germany.
He worked for 15 years with Klaus Dietz, a leading epidemiologist who coined the term “reproduction number”, on the Epidemiology of HIV before heading for 20 years the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University, New York. Dr. Wittkowski is currently the CEO of ASDERA LLC, a company discovering novel treatments for complex diseases from data of genome-wide association studies.
Eddy, this may not be the video you referred to, https://brandnewtube.com/watch/dr-knut-wittkowski-amp-dr-dan-erickson-on-lockdowns-and-herd-immunity_ZLING2FWBp4w3gV.html as I haven’t watched all of it, but it is one with Knut.
Thanks – that’s not the banned video but still very good thanks – note that it features one of the docs who runs the California testing facility and was banned by YT.
Seems to me that if masks do work, then I by wearing one I am retaining the aerosol (or whatever form the virus takes) right there in front of my nose and mouth, held in by the mask, and am then inhaling it all back thus increasing my viral load. Is this suicidal???!! I am supposedly vulnerable due to my age although I am pretty healthy.
“In France mask warning become mandatory, both inside and out, from August 21st.”… That was only in certain hotspots, Paris, Toulouse and so on… not nationwide… in the department of Gers for example, it became mandatory in communes with populations of more than 1400 from December 8th… The highest daily increase of infections in France was 88790 on November 7th… however, that is presumably based on mass random testing, which makes it suspect due to false positive rates… none of that proves the efficacy or otherwise of masks… If we look at China as an example of a nation that wore masks and practiced extreme lockdown and has the pandemic under control… did the masks help or was it just that they wash their hands more often and are not very keen on kissing and hand shaking in general? If masks are useless or at least not proven to make a difference, why do medical professionals wear them in hospitals?
They don’t. Surgeons wear them, although they have never been demonstrated to do any good. They wear them, so tis claimed, to stop them dribbling into patient wounds and stop blood splattering into their mouth and nose. Some people believe they like wearing them to look more imposing and distant.
China claiming to have control over the virus is hilarious. Basically they just said look it’s not that bad but hey let’s say strict lockdowns and masks worked to wreck the West both economically and philosophically.
I often hear people say that medical professionals wear masks in hospitals, or that surgeons wear them when operating. This is not actually true, see: https://vimeo.com/483535178
What people should be asking is, “if they work, why don’t surgeons have to wear them?”
Dr Malcolm , I survived septic shock , which doctors never diagnosed . So I agree with you fully , they ever considered I went through septic shook . Over 15 years amd I’m still dealing with the after affects .
I worked in ICU for many years as a nurse, I was part of a team called critical care outreach and we rolled out the sepsis care bundle. We saw so many patients on the ward who deteriorated with sepsis or admitted with and not dealt with promptly. On the general wards and A&E was very poorly managed. I can tell you at that time, many doctors and many more nurses didn’t understand sepsis or how to manage it. I imagine it is still very mismanaged, and it shouldn’t have to be. But pressures in hospitals are high, staffing inadequate an training poor in many areas (such as nutrition, importance of gut microbiome etc). Sorry you are still suffering, Have you heard of redox signalling? If you are still struggling might be something to look at. I had mitochondrial damage 2ndy to ciprofloxacin. My healing only began when taking redox molecules. It might not just be the sepsis you have effects from, but the medication you took during that time.
Good advice, thank you.
Wilma and Jenny:- I went into septic shock during a boringly ordinary surgery…. over 90 hours in ICU, and I remember too many of them. The most horrific of experiences. But the worst was yet to come, when the chief of ICU informed me months later that he had no intention of following my “suggested” instructions re. Sepsis. – He felt they (Marik Protocol) was ‘too controversial’ for his taste ! So beg your indulgence when I react cynically to “experts” advising us on covid & masks and vaccination.
My own hypothesis is that even with the doubtful evidence behind the efficacy of mask wearing, the social psychologists advising the government have determined that they are an outward display of compliance with government restrictions. And therefore very useful.
It’s a way of creating peer pressure to comply with their various edicts.
As Sir Patrick V himself admitted, these are often not based on scientific evidence but “policy”
Rob, here is a free one for you https://www.greenmedinfo.com/anti-therapeutic-action/face-masks-lack-safety-and-ineffectiveness-research. Lots of information to see. For further information refer to a study done in 1981 at Severalls Hospital in Colchester, by Neil Orr, surgeon, about the use of masks in operating theatres. Then look up an article by Arthur Firstenberg on this and other studies. I think you will be surprised.
Thanks for sending this info. I look forward to digging in.
Happy New Year’s,
Rob
AhNotepad and Rob: Here is more information about masks:
https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy
Gary, thanks for that reference, there’s a lot to read there.
I have seen these studies previously too. There seems to be a whole host of evidence based studies over the past 50 years that fail to show material benefit from masks in all sorts of scenarios.
Odd that all of this got overturned in 2020. Clear that it is part of the general politicization and religion associated with Covid. A very large top professional services firm this year even made a video as its Christmas greeting for clients that mentions as part of the text how we are all showing we care by wearing masks. You see people on Linked In now even posting virtue signaling comments that laud them. Evidence, facts and trade offs around dehumanization are just not considered relevant.
If masks were beneficial then I strongly believe that evolution would have created at least one animal with a natural mask over its mouth and nose. I cannot think of a single mammal that has that. Guess that the need to exhale CO and expel it away from the face, as well as being able to breath oxygen in without encumbrance matters in evolutionary terms. I prefer not to tangle with our natural design that God plus evolution created for us. Masks are clearly counter to it.
The big issue right now is that we are not dealing with rationality when it comes to anything connected with Covid. Masks are just one manifestation of that. Cialdini’s “The Psychology of Persuasion” and Rosling’s “Factfulness” are very helpful analytical frameworks to understand the biases that are at work right now. Almost any history of the First World War then provides the empirical evidence of the ability of humans en masse to keep doing the same stupid things over and over. Doing those things was also popular at the time in pretty much every combatant country. So were the technocratic military leaders who took the decisions. It was only later that the stupidity was recognized.
One can extend the list to include Salem, the McCarthy era and the rise of Totalitarian philosophies in the last century. They were all started by populations that got afraid, with the fear then whipped up by politicians who used it to control the people. Normal rationality was then suspended and the cycle of fear followed by crazy policies that no one could question became self-perpetuating. We are living through a similar situation now. I am not sure how it will end. Am doubtful that the vaccines will be the end game, independently of whether they “work” or not,
Stephen, good comment. I don’t get this “wearing a mask shows you care”. I am not very people oriented, (you might have noticed), but I see the mask wearing as following policies put out by The Hancock, or fear of “catching” something if you don’t wear one, and justifying it by convincing yourself you “care”. Being a bigot, I think I care more by trying to get people to see that they do not have to wear these things, and if they will listen, what the studies over the years show. Maybe I care about me because if this mask thing doesn’t stop it will cause further social breakdown, not only between wearers and non-wearers, but between young and old. We have already seen this, mostly from oldies who say the virus is spreading because of irresponsible young people who won’t stick to The Hancock’s rules. As far as I know the young ones are just getting on with things in general without the veiled hatred/disapproval. Apparently there are some university students who are so scared they won’t let their house mates go out incase they bring something back, so living the one life you get is not universal. Next we have the criminal suggestion the government will get The Hancock or The Johnson, or perhaps The Gove, to announce secondary school children will have to wear masks all day. WTF? I have a friend whose son is somewhat deaf. He relies far more on lip reading than most of us. He has other problems too, but he is intelligent, is able to play the acoustic guitar, and sight reads the music. What is this ?hitty policy going to do to him?
I won’t wear a muzzle, and as yet have not come across anyone who wants to make an issue of it. If they do I must try and stay rational and ask for their name. If they ask why do I want their name, I will need that to put on the Notice of Claim that they will be able to discuss in court. I will have to point out they they are committing an offence for which they are personally liable, and not the organisation who employs them.
I have written to the CEO of Tesco, attaching a video of an incident of assault and battery against a customer, by “security” staff, in one of their Hereford stores. I got a reply.
Stephen,
Good post on a great article by our sensible Doctor, and of course the brilliant satire by Ah Notepad.
A couple of points. I presume you meant Co2 and not CO. You know that 40,000 ppm “planet destroying pollution” (according to the greenies) every human exhales, of which a large proportion would get trapped by a muzzle and rebreathed thus causing irreparable brain damage.
Your point about McCarthy is rather poignant right now as the Communists he ranted about are on the point of assuming power in the fraudulent American election – without firing a shot as they promised.
Patrick Healy: How right you are. They certainly know an invasion would be completely foolhardy as >40% of the civilian population are armed, but the theft of government/media has proven surprisingly effortless. We shall see what happens on Wednesday.
That viruses are incredibly small.
3 minute demo by an anesthesiologist using vaping to show what happens when we exhale using various kinds of masks.
Wow great utube clip to watch (anesthesiologist using vaping) truly masks don’t work
Thank you for making me laugh in these miserable days!
AhNotepad,
you are one of the few who can make me laugh.
God save you.
Love it, well done
very punny
May I forward?
yep, this one’s been doing the rounds a while but well worth sharing around again, he he
AhNotepad – re Point 7, I always thought the expression referred to a barge pole 🤔
AhNotepad, Nail on the head. If you had post that in Jan20 you would be sectioned. Now its classed as normal, Unbelievable.
michael, there are still some round here who would like to see me sectioned.
Hopefully this message will reach those of us with the ability to realise what’s really going on Mick C . (Hooe, Sussex)
This is very interesting stuff, but I think it surely all depends upon the extent to which there’s a second wave. The four year graph showing the winter death pattern with the April/May Covid spike as an exception hints that we may be over the worst of it, but we need the crucial Jan/Feb data to be sure of this. In previous years you can see that the sharp uptick in deaths starts in the weeks immediately before Christmas and carries on into spring. In 2020 however that uptick started before November, and then seems to have been suppressed by the November lockdown. This does, unfortunately, leave open the possibility that we will see a larger winter spike in deaths over the Jan/Feb period than in previous years.
However, even if it’s, say, twice the usual winter deaths number, the shuttering of the economy as a response to the danger presented is still a huge overreaction. Yes, I’m persuaded by the Great Barrington Declaration and that focused protection of the vulnerable was always the right approach. It is worth recalling that we do know, at this stage, that reinfection with Covid19 is so rare as to be a freak occurrence; that means that herd immunity is and always was possible and viable. (And no, Sweden hasn’t shown that this doesn’t work, because Sweden did not adopt the GBD recommendations, which wasn’t even written until autumn 2020).
Objections to the focused protection strategy hinge upon the idea being impractical, at which point surely we must ask: are you seriously saying that closing the economy and placing 65million people into family isolation is what a practical alternative looks like? It costs close to £60billion per month to run a locked-down economy. We’re really saying we couldn’t have left hygeine/distanced shops, pubs and restaurants open while expanding healthcare to protect the vulnerable and done it for, say, half that number? Of course we could have done.
John,
Great post, but I no longer believe the data on 2nd wave. The PCR test is at least somewhat fraudulent and they run it with far too many cycles.
Re ‘herd immunity’…
I’m wondering about this… Is it really feasible to expect ‘herd immunity’?
I’m speaking as a layperson here, just off the top of my head. Presumably there are many viruses? Flu viruses for example? But is there ‘herd immunity’ for these viruses?
Perhaps these viruses don’t even impact on most people? People don’t necessarily have antibodies or whatever to all and sundry viruses?
Why are some viruses named…and others aren’t even identified? How many viruses are there?
Just rambling thoughts…but wondering about this…?
elizabethhart: Good to wonder! Why is it that some are susceptible to colds and flu and others not? I have not been sick, except for two brief, trifling occasions which affected the nasal passages, in fifteen years. What did I do fifteen years ago? I stopped eating all ready-made food and began eating only home-made food made from scratch. Except for when traveling I have continued this. I’ve never been prone to getting sick much anyway, and can’t recall ever having the flu, but in my fifties I had several bouts of serious bronchitis during stressful periods in winter. Doesn’t happen any more. With the carnivore diet cold no longer bothers me nor my bronchii. I’m hiking weekly in snow with temperatures in the mid-30’s with no problem at all. I think good metabolic health is key. And the foods (and unnecessary medical treatments) we avoid are crucial to that. Proper breathing, too.
Read the Compatibility Gene, it postulates the reason why some people are immune to some diseases and others aren’t.
Also there’s a series of presentations on YouTube by Vincent Racianello entitled Virology 2020 which explains the prevalence of viruses.
One example, if all of the viruses in the ocean were laid end to end it is estimated that they would stretch over 100,000,000 LIGHT YEARS, with a total mass equivalent to approximately 1000 times the weight of all the elephants in the world.
Thanks John C.
Speaking of Vincent Racaniello, interesting to revisit this post on his Virology Blog, published in 2012, re the controversial US sponsored research into trying to make H5N1 more transmissable… (Subsequently described as ‘gain of function’ research):
Origin of the H5N1 storm: https://www.virology.ws/2012/07/10/origin-of-the-h5n1-storm/
Just think, if you went into a bank a year ago wearing a mask, you would be arrested. Now if you go into a bank without a mask, you would be arrested.
Yes, I have a good laugh at AH Notepad’s 10 things.
When I first read this my heart literally dropped – someone else misreading data and pronouncing on it, misleading the desperate into ignoring restrictions which can only lead to more deaths. I didn’t respond though because I assumed, rightly or wrongly, it had been written in good faith. A week later though I see no reflection or retraction, no reconsideration, despite all the evidence in front of us. Sweden was a failure, our lockdowns have been too little too late and test and trace pathetic, but all you can say is “stop testing”. If I can, I’ll follow this through to the bitter end, even if it means trying to have you removed form your profession.
Baz in Kent, so good to hear you can accept and allow people to have views that differ from yours. You obviously cannot be 77th brigade, are you a fact checker?
I don’t even know what you’re talking about, I’m just someone who’s worked with data analysis and research all his life and knows bullshit when he sees it. The question is “what’s the motive”, I assume in this case it’s notoriety to build a follower base, having seen this stuff repeated by Yeadon. Everything leads down the path of consequential curves – tests > cases > hospitalisations > deaths. It makes me both sad and angry that desperate people can’t see this and are being told what they want to hear, leading to more infections and down the path we go. This is preying on people’s hope and fear, it’s dangerous and despicable.
I can show evidence at every level of the web of deceit, be it PCR, NHS, ONS, whatever but I know from other challenges I’ve made that I won’t get an honest debate.
Baz in Kent, you have made veiled accusations.
Who is building a follower base by using notoriety? and why?
Who are the desperate people causing more infections?
Who is CAUSING the hope and fear?
Please show the deceit you refer to, and the players involved.
Coming here with statements like doing your best to ruin someone’s professional career because you don’t agree with what they say, yet it’s not worth you saying anything as you won’t get an honest debate. It seems as you are saying that it’s not honest if you don’t get agreement. If you want a debate, make some points without threats or disparaging remarks and be prepared for the reaction. If you get disagreement, there’s a chance of the discussion moving forward. If you get only agreement, what have you achieved?
Here are some stats for you:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/uec-sitrep/urgent-and-emergency-care-daily-situation-reports-2020-21/
Pull the latest one down UEC Daily SitRep – Acute Web File 28 December – 03 January 2021 (XLS, 147KB)
What’s to debate?
Tell me what you deduce and I’ll be happy to tell you what’s to debate, there’s a lot of data here.
1. MSM and you claim ICUs in the UK are overwhelmed and out of space.
The NHS website data indicates that is not so.
2. The MSM claim’s Sweden’s failure to lockdown and mandate masks has been a disaster.
In terms of death per capita Sweden has gone from 5th to 28th since adopting Focused Protection (recommended by the Great Barrington Declaration) in July. Surely this would be interpreted as a huge success.
And because there are so many countries in the top 20 that are in very restrictive lockdowns (martial law lite), the conclusion must be that lockdowns are totally ineffective.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
Over to you bud.
” … but I know from other challenges I’ve made that I won’t… ”
– Sums it succinctly, It’s all about you.
Feel free to re-direct your (un-appreciated…) efforts on a perhaps instantly satisfying media such as Twitter, a favourite of a certain narcissist who deemed it a way to run his country. – limitless audience.
Whatever I am I can’t get my posts past the moderator. I wonder why?
Because there is one moderator. Me. And I have a life outside of reading all comments. So it sometimes takes a little time. You may cease to wonder
You seem to be getting quite a few posts past the moderator. I know this as I have replied to some, but not all. My posts may not get past the moderator, but I am not so vain as to go looking to see everything I post gets put up. Some of what I say may not be acceptable, that’s ok, I have no wish to control the world.
In July Sweden was 5th on the covid deaths per capita hit list.
It’s not even in the Top 20 now (I believe they are 28th)
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
I think you have the words failure and success mixed up.
In reply to Fast Eddy, any cursory study of commentary on Sweden shows their backtracking.
My first post referred to misreading data to mislead and anyone intelligent and open-minded will know full well that comparing Sweden to the UK and not, say, Norway is misleading at best and more like deceitful. Sweden has ten times Norway’s deaths and if we’d followed their path we would have had a similar experience – ten times the death rate. This is why Whitty, who studied with Tegnell, decided against so-called “herd immunity”.
Interestingly although months late, the mainstream media and commentators finally have their lens turned on antilock and self-titled “sceptics” (makes it sound thoughtful) so I won’t be a lone voice for too much longer, having been a challenger of Yeadon et al for months.
Baz in Kent, Norway and Finland had a higher death rate than Sweden, so there were fewer people who would be likely to die this year.
It indicates a weak position when name calling is used, “antilock” and “self styled “sceptics”. Try getting rid of these tell tale signs and put forward your case
Baz in Kent, I meant to say Norway and Finland had a higher death rate in previous years, than Sweden.
AhNotepad: Yes, Dr. Rushworth has addressed this issue in regard to comparing Norway and Sweden.
If I sound aggressive it’s only to counter the obsequiousness of most other posts here.
As to prior year death rates in Scandinavian countries affecting 2020 mortality, unless you have access to evidence I don’t this is just not true, Noway’s death rate (around 8) in particular has been lower than Sweden’s (around 9) for many years. If I followed your argument (which I don’t) maybe you’d expect Norway to suddenly catch up with a lot of deaths in 2020? In any event there’s no evidence that death rate in one or more years has any impact on subsequent death rate other than through policy response.
I have written nothing about Norway. How can a death rate in a country be below another country. The death rate is always 1. Everyone who is born, then dies. Or perhaps you mean something else?
Re: Norway I’m replying to AH Notepad above. The death rate is widely as deaths per 1k population.
The death rate used, in almost all population studies is per one hundred thousand.
Indeed, my fat thumb. The point remains.
Baz – if I wanted to read the disinformation that you are posting here, I’d just go to the BBC.
I think that most of us are here because we can see that the MSM is lying on Covid (and just about every other topic under the sun)
Do you think you are capable of presenting the Big Lie better than the trained liars at the BBC and other MSM outlets?
If those liars cannot convince us then to be quite blunt, you have not got a chance in hell.
I know this is futile because I have shown this to various people who are also infected with CDS but let’s do it anyway:
Sweden adopted Focused Protection in July — they were 5th and now they are 28th on the per capita death list
I know they were fifth because I look at this site multiple times per week as I have been monitoring the impact of the policies of various countries https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Have a look at the countries that are near the top of that list — UK Spain Peru Belgium Italy etc… all locking down. I believe that all countries on that list have some level of restrictions in place.
Given they have never locked down then surely Sweden’s death totals should be by #1?
Feel free to explain why they are not #1 on that list.
Better still, feel free to explain why there not on the list at all.
If you can’t provide a valid answer then I suggest you stop wasting our time and find a site with like minded people and drop your posts there.
Because on this site we are after facts logic and evidence. This is the antidote to CDS.
I’ve already talked about Sweden at some length but in view of your aggressive position I’ll go over it again and add some more layers for you.
1. Sweden has legislation against lockdown.
2. They have a high rate of trust in government and scientists
3. As one of your mates has demonstrated, the Oxford stringency index places them higher than Norway, Denmark and Fikand and about the same as USA and UK.
4. Despite this they have a much higher death rate per capita than the other Scandinavian countries
5. As recommended by WHO, making comparisons with bigger countries is misleading.
6. They’ve now legislated to allow them to impose restrictions, against a backdrop of an alarming increase in deaths which is above the EU average.
These are all facts which we can interpret as we like but for me, the main point is that the most (possible only) valid comparison is with other Scandinavian countries where Sweden has ten times Norway’s death rate, if you really still want to compare us to Sweden then I’ll compare us to New Zealand.
You cannot pick and choose any countries to compare with. If you are a believer in science you review all the data from all countries. For example, I choose to compare Northern Ireland with England. Then what, you choose Peru with South Africa, or Belarus. I choose Japan – which did not lock down, with Belgium, which did. What then. What arguments can be made? None.
Risk impact assessment of Malcolm Kendrick’s 30 Dec 20 Covid-19 blog post
Firstly let me explain why I take Dr Kendrick’s blog posts so seriously.
Lockdowns necessarily restrict people’s freedoms and cause damage to the economy and the nation’s health, for some people they’re too great a burden for a number of reasons, some more compelling than others. For instance:
• Low paid key workers who rely on SSP if they have to self-isolate
• People with illnesses that make them extremely vulnerable
• Elderly people who are therefore at risk
• Relatives of elderly people in nursing homes
• Owners of small businesses receiving no Government support (the “excluded”)
• Many people from ethnic minorities
This is by no means an exhaustive list.
Some people are less affected but nonetheless have to accept restrictions on their freedoms:
• Wealthy individuals, especially those receiving a pension aged 60-65
• People on furlough
• Younger people who feel “invulnerable”
Again by no means exhaustive but I would ask you to consider in which bracket you fit.
Lockdowns are therefore by definition unpopular and can be considered a “bad thing”.
Why then have they been so widely enforced? The obvious reason is that they are designed to save lives. There are few estimates of lives lost if we hadn’t had lockdowns but one put before the select committee in April 2020 was Prof Thomas of Bristol University’s j-value model which estimates 990,000 lives lost. This is before we knew about the new variant’s increased transmissibility. I should add that Prof Thomas was against lockdowns because he uses j-value to calculate a GDP value of life and demonstrated that average life expectancy could be reduced by an average of 3 months, leading to a calculation that this loss would be “worth” more than the value of the mainly elderly lives saved. You can form your own conclusion about this but UK Gov discarded this method and no doubt decided that almost 1 million deaths was too many to contemplate. Personally I find the concept unethical, distasteful and inhumane. You can read his paper in my online depository, along with other pieces of evidence and useful information:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1–_wcsVr6CNT7lyMIIkawTqpVG9Wc6Bj
The point then is that although lockdowns are damaging for some, potentially life threatening for a minority, inconvenient for many and widely unpopular, compared to the c.80k lives lost in 2020 they may well have saved over 900k.
What this got to do with Dr Kendrick’s blog? The fundamental issue is that he’s using his influence to encourage his supporters and others to ignore lockdowns and, from reading posts in response, you could argue avoid getting vaccinated against Covid. Why is this a problem? Well, his blog has been quoted on the Twitter feed of Michael Yeadon, a well-known lockdown sceptic with 90k followers, and of course he has his own followers reading the blog. Simple mathematics demonstrates that if only 90 of these followers were to ignore lockdown and ended up spreading Covid, with an R of 2 (not unreasonable based on current rates) a generation time of 3.5 days (median from studies) and a fatality rate of 1% (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207273/covid-19-deaths-infection-fatality-ratio-about/) we would see 15k deaths within a matter of weeks. This is serious.
So how does Dr Kendrick actually influence people? The answer is by misleading them by deliberately misrepresenting data and scientific information, using a well-trodden path among so-called lockdown “sceptics” (a word designed to convey thoughtfulness) of:
• Testing – question PCR test accuracy and therefore…
• Cases – “why mass testing” etc leading to
• Hospitalisations – (“they’re not full” “ICU beds are empty”)
• Deaths – (“it’s just like a normal winter” “they’re not Covid” “non-Covid deaths are higher”)
In my depository I include information on each of these topics showing their falsehood. I’m open to challenge on any or all of these from anyone.
One particular area mentioned by Dr K is mass testing, this is 2 different topics.
Firstly PCR tests in the UK are only for symptomatic people so basically people need to get tested if they have symptoms, this is why tests go up when infections increase – not the other way round as you’re being led to believe. We haven’t ever used PCR for mass testing and although a small minority will have been tested without symptoms this will be statistically insignificant.
Secondly there is now mass testing using Lateral Flow Tests which are for people without symptoms and will provide useful information about infection spread, but anyone testing positive will have a confirmatory PCR test at some point. There has never been any questioning of LFT in terms of driving UK Gov policy, as far as I’m aware.
I’ve included a recent UK paper on asymptomatic transmission as this is often used as a red herring. I would say that Matt Hancock’s terminology of “1 in 3” isn’t helpful as this isn’t the case but it is true that people with Covid don’t show symptoms straight away so may well be asymptomatic (more accurately presymptomatic) for around a third of the time they’re infectious. This is important.
So if you refer back to Dr Kendrick’s blog post (and previous posts) you’ll see each of these and, with an open mind, will be able to understand my concerns. You can also examine other antilock people and resources, particularly but not limited to Michael Yeadon, Carl Henighan, Ivor Cummins and Toby Young who all use the same and similar tactics. If you spend enough time on Twitter you’ll also see a few people like me who are debunking them.
You should be asking “why would they do this?”. If you have any intelligence and are capable of analytical reasoning at even a basic level you’ll identify money as an obvious reason. Building up a follower base isn’t easy but once you have one, selling books for example becomes easier. It isn’t easy building a supporter base at the best of times but it’s definitely harder if you’re not differentiated, by which I mean if you don’t say anything different. Antilock is saying something different and has an attraction to a growing base as not having lockdowns has a seductive appeal.
Another reason may be some kind of fear of socialism, on the basis that any restriction is “bad for business”. I think this applies to some but not Dr K.
There are other potential reasons, one more sinister one I’ll throw in is to do with racism. It’s a fact that ethnic minorities suffer more from Covid. I’m not accusing Dr Kendrick of racism but it’s also a fact that some well-known antilock people are also anti-immigrant ie Farage, Tice, Claire Fox, Hartley-Brewer, Pearson, Young, Brady etc.
It could be argued that presenting an alternative view, as Dr K does, is “healthy debate” but I believe I’ve shown this to be false. It’s dangerous debate and could even be likened to 1930’s Germany if you consider the groups most exposed to Covid – ethnic minorities, vulnerable, sick and elderly.
I’m strongly against this 6th form Tory government and Boris Johnson in particular, one theme I commonly hear is “lockdown is hurting me financially”. This is a fair point to which I would answer it’s not lockdown it’s the virus, your battle ground should be the lack of proper financial support from UK Gov.
I also hear “look at all the missed cancer appointments” and “what about mental health?”. A couple of points:
• Tory austerity stripped the NHS of resources.
• UK Gov has been woefully inadequate in providing proper support and communication.
• Just look at the situation in hospitals now even with restrictions, mainly because lockdown has been too little, too late – but it would have been much worse without them.
Now ask yourself “what’s in it for Baz in Kent?”. If you can think of anything beyond saving lives let me know.
This pernicious misinformation has to stop.
B
11.1.20
So, you have accused me to trying to make money from my writing. Implied that I am a racist and that I am killing people. You have strongly claimed that no-one should question anything. Good job. You really did see 1984 as an instruction manual, rather than a warning.
Malcolm — you really should give the Koch Brothers a call — I understand (read it on CNN?) that they are funding Great Barrington so surely they’d send some cash your way. It is in their interests to fund covid sceptical authors because … uh… because… uh…
Amusingly, I passed the GBD link to a few people when it came out — they immediately responded with ‘Koch Brothers funded it’… and refused to read it. Amazing how just mentioning those two fellows – without any evidence — can immediately discredit something.
Hats off to PR people – they are so powerful that they can make a circle a square – or an intelligent person act very stupidly.
They can also convince people to beg for lockdowns, sign of with Stay Safe, and ignore facts and logic – all because of a bad flu.
Baz,
The concept of “misinformation” depends on your perspective.
In 1914-8 everyone supported offensives across No Mans Land in France. The “science” and the Generals said that it was the only way to win the war. Wearing down the enemy. The enemy were seen as an existential threat. Nobody thought of General Haig as General Melchett. He was a hero and the fund for veterans was named after him.
Most of the population agreed and herd conformity clicked in. Anyone who thought this was stupid was vilified and even imprisoned.
We now know how stupid this all was. But sentiment only changed from the late 20s onwards. Historians now recognise that this was a disaster. Most other disastrous episodes in human history have been the same. Think Salem, think Nazi Germany, and whatever. Popular sentiment and the voice of the establishment all agreed. A handful of brave people resisted but were metaphorically crucified. Sophie Scholl was guillotined by popular consent. No one lifted a finger.
A fallacy does not become the truth because it is a fashion.
I hope you see the parallels. Censorship is never smart.
Best,
Stephen
No idea what is in it for you Baz in Kent. Your mind is obviously one of the closed ones, and as I said in my post some people on here are incredibly spiteful. I hope you feel better after your massively long post with your accusations and unpleasant way of putting things. No, actually I don’t.
”Now ask yourself “what’s in it for Baz in Kent?”. If you can think of anything beyond saving lives let me know.”
Notoriety
”This pernicious misinformation has to stop.”
Then please stop it. and Watch ukcolumn on youtube at 13:00 Monday, Wednesday and Friday. There you will find an analysis of the current government misinformation.
You fail to apply logic or acknowledge facts in your shorter posts so forgive me if I don’t bother to read that rather long essay.
When credibility is lost, it’s lost. It’s similar to crying wolf over and over – then trying to tell a 30 minute story about how a wolf is about to attack.
@Baz in Kent
Your argument boils down to “Lockdowns work, therefore it is wrong not to apply them.”
Unfortunately, there is no undisputed evidence that lockdowns do, in fact, work. If you look at any one country, you should see kinks in the Cases and Deaths curves as lockowns are instigated or removed. You won’t find any. Also, if you compare countries with differing levels of lockdown, for every country doing well, there’s another country doing badly at the same level.
Common sense tells you that lockdowns should make a difference. But the data says lockdowns make no difference. To the spread of Covid, that is. Maybe small isolated areas get spared for a while if travellers are kept away, but ultimately Covid will get us all.
Our best defense is personal behavior, as in boosting general health, avoiding crowded areas etc. Maybe get vaccinated if you get the opportunity. Leaving it to the government to save you is fruitless. Look what they’ve done to the NHS. Do you think they care any more about you?
You also argue that lockdown deniers are only interested in business. Well, business creates jobs and pays the wages and taxes, and many people have sunk their life savings into small businesses. Business failures are devastating both financially and psychologically to many people. The downside to lockdowns is massive, and I believe very under-estimated.
Hi Baz in Kent,
So, if you really want to accuse people of having “blood on their hands”, why don’t we take a closer look, and include absolutely everybody who might fall into that category, shall we? Here we go:
1) Around the time that the pandemic was first beginning to spread globally, the WHO stated that there was no evidence of human-to-human contact. (Even though they had been warned by Taiwan, they chose to ignore that). So they must have massive blood on their hands.
2) When countries around the world wanted to ban flights to and from China, they were accused (by Tedros) of being “racist”, and were strongly encouraged not to do so.
3) At the height of the pandemic in New York City, at least one doctor and several nurses came out on YouTube and said that the treatments they were being told to use- (which came form “the top”, somewhere; I’m not sure which authority ordered this)- was actually killing people instead of saving them. This doctor gave a very technical analysis (meant for his fellow doctors). His video was, unfortunately, banned from YouTube. Eventually it resurfaced again, after that wave had passed. So I guess YouTube has massive blood on their hands as well.
4) Countless lawmakers, politicians, and other elites (including Neil Ferguson) have disregarded their own Lockdown orders. In some cases, there were parties of 200 people, with no social distancing, no masks. So we must accuse them of massive blood on their hands as well. Not only from the all those “deaths” they must have caused, but the fact that they weren’t very concerned about following their own restrictions might give some of the rest of us pause…..
5) Here in Germany, where I live, approximately 5000 doctors signed a petition to the government, urging them not to enforce more Lockdowns, because their claim was that Lockdowns cause far more damage than benefit. If the government had listened to them (which of course they didn’t), I guess these 5000 doctors would also have “blood on their hands”? I guess we should all be suspicious of doctors now, since it appears they want to kill us?
6) Also here in Germany, they have removed about 20 hospitals- (I’m not sure of the exact number), and around 2000 beds. They did this between the summer and the Fall of 2020. At the height of a “so-called pandemic”, one might ask….why???……
7) Many doctors are frustrated by the fact that they are not allowed to talk to their patients about vitamin D, and optimizing metabolic health. Although there is much scientific proof of these, “optimizing your immune system” and trying to prevent bad effects from COVID have been deemed “misinformation” by the WHO, Facebook, et al. (And according to WHO now, natural immunity “no longer exists”).
I could go on and on. But right from the beginning, I had the feeling that the people who were creating the policies were either totally incompetent….or something more sinister than that. By the way, I am not easily “influenced” by people. I ask my own questions, do the research and come to my own conclusions. Dr. Kendrick (and people like him) have only confirmed my suspicions.
Baz in Kent,
The single most problematic (I would say, “egregious”, but that would be wrong, of course) line in your comment is, “deliberately misrepresenting data and scientific information”. “[D]eliberately misleading”, you say? So, Dr Malcolm Kendrick is just a sniveling, demagogic, venal, self-aggrandizing, insensitive (or murderous) fabricator in search of a “following”? In your own words, “this is serious”.
I’ve read Dr Kendrick for a few years now. Maybe I’m just too daft and dense to see the unvarnished evil of this man. I suppose I’m too simple-minded to consider other sources of information, some confirmatory, some contradictory, of Dr Kendrick’s views. I suppose I don’t “have any intelligence and [am not] capable of analytical reasoning at even a basic level”.
Of course, we might have skipped the ad hominem and suggested Dr Kendrick is simply wrong. That might still be serious, but it would be an entirely different matter. We didn’t do that, did we, Baz in Kent?
I have taken a look at your Google drive. There’s a lot to go through. But I do note that “False positives.jpeg” (a screen shot?) is not sourced. Undoubtedly an oversight.
Still, Baz in Kent, thank you from the bottom of my heart for this treasure chest of wisdom you offer!
The fact I can’t get my posts past the moderator won’t stop me pursuing you people who’ve caused more deaths.
What do you intend to due once you have puseud them?
I recommend reading the attached before you do whatever it is you plan to do.
John Ioannidis of Stanford is a co-author. It’s not my field but I believe he is the most pre-eminent epidemiologist in the world. It’s also peer reviewed and looks at real cross country case data systematically rather than the counter factual of comparing model predictions with outcomes and then saying how great the policies were. Most Imperial College type papers do the latter and are therefore by definition non falsifiable empirically. Whatever the clever analytics, regressions and statistics that they deploy. The answer is still embedded in the framing of the paper.
Their conclusion: “we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020. We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated communications about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay-at-home orders and business closures. The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some benefits. However, even if they exist, these benefits may not match the numerous harms of these aggressive measures. More targeted public health interventions that more effectively reduce transmissions may be important for future epidemic control without the harms of highly restrictive measures.”
It’s about as strong as academics who focus on an evidence based approach and a rigorous approach to hypotheses and logic are likely to get in my experience.
Probably right to focus on “case” numbers (despite the data being noisy) but my guess is that death statistics would send a similar message more clearly – the countries that focused on lock downs of entire populations failed to protect the vulnerable populations who are likely to become severe and fatal “cases”.
Link here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/eci.13484
Just released I believe.
Thank you for this
Thanks for finally allowing my posts and I hope they prompt some honest debate.
As to what I intend to do about people who use misinformation to mislead the desperate, there’s growing unrest in our country as the issue at last becomes mainstream and I have a long list to contribute. I can understand why there are some who are pulled in by the seductive appeal of ignoring lockdowns and other restrictions, especially those that have been let down by our 6th form government’s pathetic financial and other support, but I don’t understand and will always condemn anyone who takes advantage of this, whatever their motive. What’s your motive? What are the key planks of your pandemic strategy? You must know that a good deal of what you wrote is at best questionable so why write it? You know full well that just one person ignoring restrictions exponentially risks the lives of others, no matter whether they’re themselves less vulnerable.
I saw your post quoted by Yeadon, that’s at the root of my issue with you. I believe he – and by inference you – has blood on his hands.
B
You are a most aggressive fellow who has yet to provide a single fact about anything. Stating that people have blood on their hands is to suggest that somehow, or another, I have killed many people through my actions. If so, you perhaps have some facts upon which to base this statement. You state that my facts are questionable. In my last post I used data from EuroMOMO. To the best of my knowledge, no-one has questioned their data. However, you must believe that their data are wrong. If so, could you provide some facts to support your position on this.
And please refrain from making deliberately aggressive remarks. I did not ‘finally’ allow you posts. I approved them when I read them. I work full time, I am writing a book, I have a whole other life that has nothing to do with this blog. My entire philosophy is to allow debate, to encourage opinions that do not agree with mine. I may have to change this policy as a number of people have told me that they find the comments to have become too aggressive and they have been frightened off. Yes, that means you.
Baz, after your so open minded post, full of honesty and constructive debate, I won’t bother trying to compete with your eminent views, as they are, in summary, rubbish. Happy New Year.
Firstly regarding your moderating my posts, they hadn’t appeared in your blog and were no longer showing as pending so I assumed you’d deleted them. My apologies.
Am I a “most aggressive fellow”? That’s a matter of opinion but I’d say I’m frustrated, worried and a little annoyed. You’ll have seen that I delayed making any comment until more time had elapsed and the ramifications of relaxing restrictions, coupled with an increase in ignoring them, became evident in the hospitalisations and deaths statistics, to the point where the NHS is in crisis. Who do I blame? The government for sure, for failing to protect the people with adequate and early lockdowns but also anyone encouraging people to ignore them or avoid getting vaccinated.
Turning to the Euromomo data you’ll see that I don’t question the facts but your presentation of them, including your timing. Standard deviation is a good way to make comparisons but compressing charts is also a good way of hiding comparative significant trends. It’s clear (to me) that the current “all ages” charts for almost all European countries are showing well above trend deaths this winter, despite lockdowns and increased vaccine take up suppressing flu.
I have little doubt you’re also aware of other datasets like excess mortality which mitigate against your theories and I’ve posted elsewhere a reply about UK Covid and non-Covid deaths.
You’ll also know that medical advances have improved survival rates and that the key issue today isn’t necessarily deaths but hospitals at crisis point. Put these facts together and you should have second thoughts two weeks after your original piece of polemic.
I will reply separately to your supporters who seem so keen to point at my “aggression” rather than intellectually challenge me. My accusations aren’t “veiled”. The evidence shows that breaching restrictions will cause more deaths than not, therefore anyone in a position of influence using it to encourage or induce people to risk other people’s lives does, indeed, have blood on their hands.
B
You have still failed to provide a single fact.
Baz, please provide your evidence that inadequate lockdowns are causing increased deaths. I present https://bradshawadvisory.com/data-insights/lockdown-severity-vs-covid-19-deaths which shows no correlation. How is this wrong? A detailed analysis will be adequate.
CNN BBC and the NYT say lockdowns work. That’s good enough for 99.99999% of people.
Facts, research, data, evidence…. bah…. https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-coronavirus-the-evidence/
It’s hardly surprising this ultra-right organisation is anti-lockdown as, along with the climate change denying Koch, they were behind the Great Barrington bullshit. First rule of research analysis, check your source’s motive. In my opinion you’re making yourself look a bit desperate and aggressive.
Baz wrote ”In my opinion you’re making yourself look a bit desperate and aggressive.”
Hmmm, pot? 🤔 kettle? 🤔
Baz – FYI: Sunita is a co-author of GBD.
Rather odd that she is being attacked relentlessly… she’s only trying to convince nearly 8 billion idiots not to commit suicide by economic collapse over a bad flu.
Here’s the thing. I have stated a number of times that I believe the PTB have a master plan that involves ending us in a humane way because we are running out of oil.
I actually have no issue with the Covid Scam. Like Trudeau said in the leak ‘We were told it was in the individuals best interest to participate.’
So when you are locked in your house under martial law, and you are down to your last can of beans, and begging for the lockdowns to be extended, and ratting out your neighbour who dares to venture out and try to kill some rats to eat…. think of me. Because I will be laughing my ass off as I think about you and all those billions of others who gleefully marched over the cliff like so many human lemmings.
Now that is seriously funny. But I won’t laugh for very long, because knowing what is behind that curtain does not provide immunity from the end game (nor does any vaccine).
Feel free to print this post out, frame it and reread it come doomsday. Because I am sure when you are at death’s door you will not recall that I told you so.
Anyway it does not matter what any of us is thinking – also from the leak ‘In the end it was implied by the PMO that the whole agenda will move forward no matter who agrees with it or not.’
We have seen what happens if The Rules are violated and someone has a coffee … or is it a picnic… in the park… If anyone decides enough is enough and pulls out a gun – they’d be dead in an hour. Cuz the neighbours will help the cops find and kill them because they want to Stay Safe!
A contagion of hatred and hysteria: Oxford epidemiologist PROFESSOR SUNETRA GUPTA tells how she has been intimidated and shamed for backing shielding instead of lockdown
According to Wikipedia, for instance, the Great Barrington Declaration was funded by a Right-wing think-tank with links to climate-change deniers.
It should be obvious to anyone that writing a short proposal and posting it on a website requires no great financing. But let me spell it out, since, apparently, I have to: I did not accept payment to co-author the Great Barrington Declaration.
Money has never been the motivation in my career. It hurts me profoundly that anyone who knows me, or has even a passing professional acquaintance, could believe for a minute that I would accept a clandestine payment for anything.
I am very fortunate to have a house and garden I love, and I couldn’t ask for more material wealth than that. Far more important to me are my family and my work. Yet the abuse continues to flood in, increasingly of a personal nature.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8899277/Professor-Sunetra-Gupta-reveals-crisis-ruthlessly-weaponised.html
I am going to apply my (too many posts rule here). Can we restrict the posts please.
I’d already read it and you’ll know as well as me that it’s an analysis comparing countries against Sweden and South Korea, not an absolute impact assessment. It’s been widely questioned on the not unreasonable basis that you can’t realistically compare Sweden with Germany or South Korea with the UK.
Thanks anyway.
What exactly is the reason one cannot compare them? I would really love to know.
The other comparison is North Dakota versus South Dakota. That’s a hard one to dispute.
We can all agree that Covid is a bad disease. I do not see anyone claiming otherwise.
But the discussion is about whether the government mandated restrictions make much difference and whether they create more misery than they alleviate. Then, a relative comparison of efficacy clearly makes analytical and ethical sense.
Feel free to dispute the methodology of the man (Dr Ioannidis) who is possibly the most eminent person in the field but to just state that countries cannot be compared a priori is not analytical.
By the way, this is not aggressive. It’s discussing the facts.
I intervened only because you seem to be making threats and accusing people of murder who disagree with you. I do not like that. If I have misunderstood your meaning then it would be really good if you could clarify.
Can you explain what’s the absolute impact assessment and how it’s done?
thanks
Perhaps you’ll read again the various replies I’ve posted and you’ll see that I have provided a number of facts and pointed to sources of evidence. I don’t know how to include images or links but that shouldn’t matter, the evidence is all there on ONS, Euromomo, Our World in Data etc. If you’d like to ask me any specific question I’ll answer it, which is more than I can say for you at the moment.
Making me out to be unreasonable is classic gaslighting.
Baz, thank you for your posts, they lend an almost hilarious interlude to the otherwise hum-drum proceedings.
Replying to multiple posts on mobile platform isn’t easy, nonetheless:
1. Sweden in particular is a good example of how you can’t easily compare one country with another, it has legislation against lockdowns and a strong culture of trusting scientists and government. There’s an excellent thread by @jboylan on Twitter, he lives in Sweden. I was there for 6 weeks in 2019 and have friends there, I can tell you they’d rather be like Norway but i expect yips won’t be over me. They’ve now passed emergency legislation to allow,them to implement restrictions.
2. Economic, geographic and social demographics have too big an influence on virus spread to just compare cases and deaths. Eg population density, proportion of service industries, population age.
3. The Dakotas are indeed interesting and there are many contrary opinions about them.
4. An absolute impact assessment would be without making comparisons ie an assessment of the absolute impact of various measures. There are a number of these readily available.
5. As to AH notepad, your response proves my point. Thanks.
I still haven’t heard anything from any of you with any evidence challenging my points.
Sorry if I’ve missed anything.
Baz in Kent: What points have you made? List them, please, and be specific. All I can recall are dire accusations (blood on the hands), and threats to pursue those who disagree with you and drum them out of the profession. I also suggest giving factual, verifiable evidence, as Dr. Kendrick has done in all of his published written work, but which you seem hesitant to do. What happens on this blog, and almost uniquely so, is an example of a lively discourse leading to deeper knowledge and insight. Certainly has for me, anyway.
If you take the time to search “Baz” on this page you’ll see I’ve provided a number of pieces of evidence and valid challenges. Given time I intend to address a number of points made by your good Doctor but I’m confident that so far I’ve shown him to have been misleading about the deaths data as a minimum. I’ve made an online depository for some relevant information which I’m sharing here and I’ll add more responses later.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1–_wcsVr6CNT7lyMIIkawTqpVG9Wc6Bj
Please provide one example of my being misleading. Absolute facts, and figures please. Not the complete generalisations that you seem to equate with data.
Surely the Swedes must be happy about their falling from 5th on this list?
They don’t even make the list now https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
But then like the rest of the world, Swedes would not be aware of this because the MSM pounds the drum telling them they have failed and should lock down like all those countries that are near the top of that list 🙂
Well, that doesn’t explain much in regards to absolute impact assessment. How is it done? Can you explain the methodology? How do you compare Sweden that didn’t enter a lockdown to hypothetical Sweden that would have entered a lockdown?
So now AH Notepad finds humour in this deadly serious situation.
Read Prof Thomas (Bristol) evidence to the select committee – he’s another sceptic but for a different and completely open reason – 990k deaths if we hadn’t locked down.
I’m familiar with the stringency index which of course shows Sweden high on stringency. As I’ve previously said, many comparisons are meaningless, where’s your modelling for deaths without lockdowns?
Look at the consequential curves (as I’ve mentioned) and the curves showing UK lockdowns.
I’ve asked for your pandemic response plan but all I’ve seen is “stop testing”.
If you people were really serious and well-informed you be doing better than this.
Sorry, but what can you possibly mean here? If you cannot get your posts past the moderator, how is that I have just read them? Are you just making some kind of point, hoping people won’t have noticed that your posts do get past the moderator? Are you mad? To be honest, if I were the moderator I wouldn’t give your posts the time of day, but then I am not Dr Kendrick. In my opinion, not that you will care, you seem to be a very nasty little man.
When I read comments from Baz and others with CDS, I am reminded of Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged.
There are also parallels in what is happening in the USA right now.
The conversations on Covid and politics are almost completely one-sided, populist and deranged. All dissent is eliminated.
Where is John Galt?
At least they aren’t eliminated on Dr K’s blog. I think he has amazing patience with the people who attack him. I sincerely hope we never need a John Galt. Who knows? The world is not looking good.
Malcolm,
I think sometimes a moderator has to simply pull the plug on people who will not be reasonable. I can think of one person in particular who has already done enough to justify that treatment a long time back!
100% agree. I am here because it is an oasis of logic and fact.
In fact I avoid the MSM because it is filled with lie and all that Baz is doing is regurgitating the lies he reads on the BBC.
Baz adds ZERO value to these discussions.
And trying to argue with him is like trying to argue with a 4 year old or a …..
If your heart literally dropped, you’d be dead.
Baz, you are not a critical thinker. I am sorry for you. The numbers show this Plandemic is mostly a Hoax because it is comparable to the common flu, and the response has been incommensurate. You are just being told by someone that early lockdowns would have made a difference, but where is your evidence? Again, you are just guessing.
Thank you for helping me retain my sanity. The world IS bonkers… sadly this includes most of my family and friends. I depend on your wise words to reassure me. It is gratifying to know that someone out there speaks with a voce of reason and clarity..
Same for me LOL
Would comparing the ratio of deaths following a positive Covid-19 test result with the ratio of deaths following a negative Covid-19 test result give us an indication of how many people actually die of Covid-19? I’m sure such a compartson has been made but can’t find one.
If you want to know how many people died of Covid look at the ONS weekly deaths which shows the number with Covid “as underlying cause of death”. These are registered deaths certified by doctors.
I have a very good mate who has been working for Big Pharma for 25+ years. He has entertained me over pints on numerous occasions with stories of how he bribes doctors.
It works like this — the sales people push their drugs on doctors by enticing them with all expenses paid junkets to thrilling destinations. Of course they are technically ‘conferences’ but in reality they are fun in the sun holidays.
And he told me, the more of the drug you prescribe the better your package. If you push a lot of the dope you get first class and a suite….
Apparently the doctors at these junkets are prone to comparing how much dope they pushed with what they received in exchange. That seems to be a hot topic of conversation at the ‘conference’ table.
Anyway — in the US — there are USD38,000 enticements given to medical facilities who list Covid as cause of death. Medical facilities are operated by the same doctors who push drugs in exchange for paid junkets…. Think about that.
I do have another mate who’s father was a surgeon and chief of staff at a massive Australian hospital and he refused to accept the junkets. He would probably refused to list cause of death as Covid when someone died of a heart attack but had tested positive for Covid.
But he’d be the exception.
If you paid me 38K to sign off on Covid as cause of death for just about anything you better have some ink refills ready!!!!
A friend told me that one of his customers went to a major hospital when his father died of something unrelated to COVID, and the doctor actually asked him if he would mind if his father was recorded as dying of COVID because the hospital got more money from the government for such patients.
Not in the UK
To clarify, my comment was in response to Fast Eddy. Last time I checked, there were fairly strict rules on how far Big Pharma could go to get doctors to prescribe their products in the UK.
I bet there are all sorts of dodgy goings on with vaccinations though.
Database shines light on pharma payments to UK doctors
https://www.ft.com/content/b3e42806-3ec7-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0
Big pharma cash and hospitality to doctors rises
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/30/big-pharma-cash-hospitality-doctors-rises-one-three-refuses/
Loved it it has lift my spirit up!!
Good to know there are people who can think
There is also the fact that we almost certainly have an increase in deaths due to inability to get treatment for the likes of CVD and cancer. This means the excess death figures for this time of year are pushed up a little by these as not all of them will be recorded as Covid. This means the deaths at the moment are further within the band of statistical variance
That is exactly what I thought when I saw that spike. In Hospice land all the cancer and dementia patients (which make up the vast majority of our patients) suddenly disappeared – we were getting COVID referrals almost exclusively. But the COVID tsunami lasted only through the months of March and early April. Come June we started getting patients whose treatable illnesses progressed rapidly because they were not able to see their doctor for months, despite the fact that they were starting to have problems. By the time they got to see their doctor (by video) it was too late and they ended up being referred to Hospice. It wasn’t just cancer treatment that stopped – nobody was seeing their doctor. How many treatable illnesses that are far less serious and deadly than cancer went undiagnosed and untreated because people were terrified to leave their homes, or they couldn’t get an appointment with their doctor because their doctor wasn’t seeing patients? The total mortality numbers could be telling a different story from the official narrative even in that respect.
By the way, Dr. M – I love your writing style.
If you take the time to analyse ONS deaths data you’ll see that 2020 deaths were around 73k above the 5-year average with Covid deaths 78k, non-Covid deaths in 2020 were therefore c 5k down. Some of these would have moved to the Covid column and lockdown will have reduced deaths from flu etc.
Without minimising any death and finding it hard to make comparisons and, indeed, accepting that some people will have died because of lockdowns, the evidence is that without lockdowns we would have a far higher death toll from Covid and though this would have reduced deaths from other diseases this number would have been far lower.
Then there’s there impact on mental health of those hundreds of thousands of Covid deaths and the impact on other treatments of overrun hospitals – as we’re now seeing even with restrictions.
Well,…you made me smile (z<10)…sounded like something from Hancock’s half hour !! Most of all makes sense. I’m off to another galaxy with some COVID to make a million or three.😂😂
My god you are the voice of sanity Dr K and summed up exactly what we as an older couple have said from the start.Dont be flippant and treat it just like any other other flu or virus,you wouldn’t go in to a room shaking the hands of people full of snotty flu of course it’d spread if you did, use common sense.We have had such a hard time from our grown up children about us breaking the rules because we chose to not shut ourselves away we chose life,we don’t have a great load left but what we do have we will safeguard,treasure and enjoy to the full and sod their rules.Your spot on with the stop the testing too,every time I get a sore muscle or a cough or headache im told go get a covid test,not a chance I see it for exactly what it is at this time of year.We do have underlying health issues but none that are”on the list” but still capable of shortening our lives if we let them.we eat well.we exercise,we keep a check via blood tests on our vitamin and mineral levels esp in our cases.We cant eat out,we can’t go to the pictures,we can’t shop till we drop,we can’t cuddle our grandchildren who are terrified of us.Some would say well whats the point your old and have nothing much going on,wrong! Life is precious and we fully intend to enjoy it as best we can and they can shove their vaccine.well done Dr K.
Well said, those sinister bastards are desperate to push their rushed experimental vaccines on as many people as possible, their intentions are clearly malicious.
No. Pfizer’s motivation is benign and is as it has always been: to make money. They may be distributing their vaccine ‘at cost’ but their name will be on everyone’s lips for many years to come – which is priceless marketing. It would be a disaster for them if their vaccine was found on balance to do harm. I don’t believe the vaccine is necessary apart from the need to justify the climb down from where the panic has driven us. From what I have read, their vaccine is likely to need further development as the bug evolves which is a perfect outcome for the business. Disclosure: Some of my pension is tied to their commercial success.
I don’t doubt the same is true for other pharmaceutical companies too.
Will I take the vaccine? Yeah, probably. Why not? When I worked for one of the other pharma companies they absorbed (back when God was a lad) I used to take part in phase II clinical trials – bought myself a (very cheap) motorcycle on the proceeds. Not that I’m expecting to get paid this time!
Buggrit! Phase I, not phase II. Dose/response/tolerability trials. Most such trials required frequent blood samples and a week or more off alcohol and sometimes only eating provided food. The ‘compensation’ and money saved from participating in a few such trials soon added up.
Never did me any harm! Baaah! (Col Melchet voice).
Note – we still dont have a SARS coronavirus vaccine – not for want of trying:
https://www.wired.com/2003/05/feds-race-to-make-sars-vaccine/
There was the AIDS/HIV global hysteria 40 odd years ago – and today, still no HIV vaccine.
(Probably because the ‘target audience’ was too small to justify the cost return, althought scientists say HIV is a tricky little bugger.)
Yet, for Covid1984, they have a vaccine in 10 months. The briefest Net search will tell you the typical trial time for a vaccine is between 10 -15 years:
https://www.reference.com/science/how-long-to-develop-vaccine
‘It’s not unusual for a vaccine to take 10 to 15 years to complete all the phases under normal circumstances.’
https://off-guardian.org/2021/01/03/what-vaccine-trials/
‘The most important, meaningful phase of CV-19 vaccine trials has barely begun, let alone been completed.’
Jeannie,
It is sad to teach kids to be afraid. They may never get over it. They could be afraid FOR you, but not OF you.
Anna when I have a 4 year old say to me don’t want to cuddle you youll give me covid theres no doubt in my mind that its not something I would ever teach or pass onto any of my grandchildren.
People don’t realize how much pain this causes us its not funny its not something we relish and yes its very sad but not of our doing.
Oh, Jeannie, I could tell from your writing that it had not come from you!
The world has gone mad,the overreaction to this virus is frankly unbelievable.I put this down to fear generated by amongst other the British Government.The behavioural insight team based in the Cabinet Office see the document MINDSPACE,the 77th Brigade who push out psyco information to scare and “nudge” the public to do as they are told,backed up by the press.A couple of comments in the Telegraph from ambulance paramedics, that most people they pick up haven’t got covid,all they have got is a flu virus a, Lemsip would sort out.We the Great British public are being played,for what end I don’t know, only time will tell.If people used common sense and just treated this virus like flu,it would go away,like all the rest do every previous year. The unreliable PCR test is inflated the “cases” and thus maintaining the fear factor.The ONS figures don’t lie,but most people don’t look at those,relying on the main stream media.
The World Health Organisation have defined a case of CoViD19 as a positive test for the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
They have redefined herd/community immunity as being as a result of vaccination only, they’ve removed the infection path.
They have said that the RT-PCR should have no more than 30 steps.
As Kary Mullis said seek and you shall find.
I despair at the complete lack of scientific evidence for the decisions made.
My clinician colleagues do not question anything, wearing masks and visors when there’s no evidence for their efficacy or that asymptomatic people are infectious.
Yes, I noticed the same! Worrying. What is behind this mad push?? One must wonder..
Jon Rappoport might be a conspiracy theorist, but he predicted that once the vaccine was released they would cut down on the permitted number of PCR cycles, which would cut the number of positive tests and “prove” the vaccine was working.
“Jon Rappoport might be a conspiracy theorist…”
… and he might also be correct.
Well, are you a conspiracy denier then?
Harry, I am challenging the idea put about by the authorities that anyone who believes in a conspiracy is necessarily gaga.
Obviously the world is full of conspiracies. As a student of history I am aware of this.
One can easily discern:
1. A conspiracy to make vast amounts of money.
2. A conspiracy to gain and keep power over ordinary citizens.
3. A conspiracy to blame certain nations, and thus gain certain political ends.
4. A conspiracy by some scientists and others to enhance their reputations as experts and gurus.
5. A conspiracy not to tell the truth, and not to have honest open debates.
There are, of course, many more.
And, incidentally, I have found Jon Rappoport’s articles to be very credible, in the main.
Joe Dopelle: I agree. John Rappaport is a truth-teller.
Curiously I said the same thing myself recently, after reading “dissolving illusions” where the authors suggested that polio got “disappeared” by relabelling it as something else just as the vaccine came out.
I muttered to myself “I bet they alter the number of cycles on the pcr test just as the vaccine comes out, alter the required symptoms, and start renaming it flu.”
LOVED dissolving illusions!!! SO MANY parallels between previous outbreaks and vaccines “that saved the day” AFTER the disease had mostly run its course…sigh.
I think that’s probably the plan.
yes, it’s interesting now that they have a vaccine that the news is finally getting out that about 27-30 cycles is plenty. it does seem to fit. but i’m quite cynical about this.
One Kary Mullis is worth several million Fergusons, Vallances and Whittys. (Or, as LockdownSceptics calls them, Unbalanced and Witless).
Someone asked him if he didn’t think it was irresponsible to air his opinions about AIDS and HIV. To which he replied that he was a scientist, not a lifeguard.
https://youtu.be/xTYDzcC-n1k This might be the one, but in one of Gundry’s videos he talks about vitamin D, and if he starts noticing symptoms he takes up to 150,000 IU a day in three 50,000 doses for a few days. He says he has never seen a toxicity problem. Please don’t bother shooting the messenger.
We also have Vitamin D as a treatment for Covid-19 in phase lll clinical trials … how many people in the UK are aware of this fact?!
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04579640
This is welcome but the amounts given are probably not enough. For many people with a vit D deficiency 800 iu a day will be totally inadequate to correct this over a 6 month period. A better way of doing this would be to correct to a given level – say 100nmol/l and then give as much as was necessary. Given the wide variation in vit D absorption any trial that uses fixed amounts is unlikely to provide a proper result. Bolus dosing as is used regularly here in France should also also be evaluated . As should use of Calcifediol on those who have covid .
My husband and me started taking VitD back in the summer. We’ve both never been so well – not a sniffle, cough or sneeze. Also we didn’t have the ‘flu jab this year (always ill after it; I finally added up the evidence and thought – nah). Hubby says it could also be down to everything in sight at work being sanitised, but even so as someone who got through 2 bottles of Domestos a week before I still think the VitD has made a massive difference.
Jayne, those sanitizing products are toxic, it is the VitD3 and be sure to take it with K2
We take Vits C, D3 and zinc. These have all, both anecdotally and in trials, been successful at lessening the risk of a bad case of covid.
Cheap and effective and what is there to lose in being cautious?
Sounds like a made-to-fail trial, or they’re just ignorant? A single bolus of cholecalciferol can take up to 2 weeks to be converted to calcidiol (the so-called inactive form – gotta laugh), before that will be slowly converted into calcitriol (the so-called active form), not much use waiting for this to happen if you’re ill. A trial recently in Cordoba gave calcidiol directly, by-passing the long slooww conversion. But of course we’re British and really stupid of course or something to that effect.
This trial is set up to fail? A large dose of cholecalcifiol can take up to 2 weeks to be converted to calcidiol ( the so-called inactive form) and then it has to be converted to calcitriol (the so-called active form). A recent trial in Cordoba competently administered calcidiol directly, but we’re British and stupid of course.
Hi .. I am not a doctor just an ordinary Mum/Granny and it has been a breath of fresh and honest air to read all your articles this year, thank you… I was hoping this madness may stop in 2021 but like you say they cannot admit to being wrong so guess it will be another trying year for us all! Happy New Year to you!
This morning I was pondering mortality numbers and how they are used to frighten people. How many people are aware of how other health impairments cause death? How many people are aware of how many people die in any given year for any cause? It seems as if logic and reason have divorced from our collective response, and much of the fear generated is rooted in a collective ignorance about death and numbers. For instance, in any given year in the US 450,000 deaths are attributed to tobacco. If one were to extrapolate responses to COVID to cigarettes, we would surely be burning down tobacco fields and arresting merchants for selling a drug that kills so many, right? 250,000 people die every year from obesity. Surely we should be destroying factories that produce junk food and again arresting those evil merchants of delicious junk? In fact, in the US we subsidize corn growers for producing high fructose corn syrup, which makes producing junk food attractive economically.
Yet here we are, obliterating society for similar death counts due to COVID. I feel frustrated as someone whose economic health only took a minor hit in the months following the first lockdown. Since that time, I literally could not be any busier, due to the wreckage caused by closed schools and a lack of social interactions between children. (I wish I weren’t so busy, in case that’s not clear.) I can’t imagine how it must feel to be someone whose livelihood has been obliterated by lockdowns and restrictions. I don’t know that there is any easy answer to COVID, but I am grateful for the work of Dr. Kendrick and his orientation toward logic and reason in a time of such rampant fear-mongering.
Thanks for another moment of sanity
Many many thanks. You deserve a nice whisky for all your efforts on this blog. I appreciate your explanations, and the great responses from all contributors. I wish you a peaceful and healthy 2021.
To those who do believe, no explanation is necessary.
To those who do not believe, no explanation is possible
Just had a thought….for those of us in UK, maybe we ought to rename us The Silly Isles.
Thank you, Ah I needed a laugh 😆
Great post and clear minded thinking.
Is there anything like the EuroMOMO data for the USA? That would be very interesting to see.
Sorry, don’t know
Somewhat similar information can be found here for the USA. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
A researcher at Johns Hopkins looked at this and published her findings — the university removed the findings because ???? You can find a link to the research on this article (someone fortunately got it onto PDF before it was killed) https://wbckfm.com/johns-hopkins-university-researcher-finds-death-rate-before-and-after-covid-the-same/
Your sense is invaluable.
Possibly check the (US) CDC data? I haven’t checked it myself recently, but I do remember that I read somewhere that the CDC data for COVID deaths was far lower than “expected”. I think they might have all cause mortality as well.
I posted some info on a Github site that includes some CDC data on excess deaths:
Click to access Experimental%20page.pdf
Have to scroll down thru the various graphs.
One of the reasons why the USA appears to have suffered more from Covid-19 than any other country might be that the only national authorities collecting data are those like the CDC – which seem to be corrupt and hence unreliable.
Don’t discount metabolic health. As has been reported, only 12% of adult Americans qualify as metabolically healthy. We’re a staggeringly unfit country and will therefore be prone to excess death even in times of fewer invasive viruses. Even in a standard year, 250,000 Americans die from obesity related causes. We need to become fitter as a long term health strategy. Forgive me for being cynical, but I will not hold my breath on national policies driving us in that direction.
“…Great post and clear minded thinking….”
NOoooo, – we can’t have that ! It’s agin th’ narrative…
The CDC does publish data, which can be downloaded (to a program using ‘wget’) form these websites:
https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/muzy-jte6/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD
https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/3yf8-kanr/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD
The first will get weekly deaths data for 2019 and 2020 thru the current week. The second will get the weekly deaths from 2014 thru 2018. The data is in csv (comma separated data columns) suitable for importing into Excel, I think. I read the files with my own code. There is a lot of data on each line in these files, but I just look at the deaths by ‘natural causes’ column.
Try the Human Mortality Database (https://mortality.org/). Their visualisations are not as good but you can get the data and roll your own.
Thank you, your second last paragraph captures it.
I saw a stat yesterday, in the UK only about 388 under 60 have died of covid during the whole pandemic (epidemic). Whether that is ‘of’ or ‘with’ or whatever I’m not sure, but it is a TINY number.
I have a friend who runs the local branch of a men’s mental health group called Andy’s Man’s Club. There are so many men of working age, in their prime for goodness sake, who are having the life crushed out of them. Frankly it’s criminal.
No. That was 388 under 60 in England only with no previously diagnosed ‘condition’. It’s still a very small number when compared to the damage to the economy. You can find the NHS spreadsheet here: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/12/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-24-December-2020-weekly-file.xlsx (it’s a shame they don’t use Open Document Format like the government recommends- they must have money to burn).
Mike C: “(it’s a shame they don’t use Open Document Format like the government recommends- they must have money to burn)”
Wow ! Where can one go with that line eh ? !!
You may remember that in October there was a data crash and loss because NHS/ONS (Whoever it is who runs the thing this week) relied on Excel for what’s surely becoming quite a large data pool. As opposed to something more akin to an actual data table. Sorry, but I’ve had this for much of my (working) life, especially when working in larger organisations (one can forgive small businesses), few seem to plan for ‘big data’, start out using an Excel sheet and then wonder why, sometime later, with several thousand ‘records’, the thing’s turned into a slow, unstable mess. I once asked an Engineer if he’d considered using Powerpoint to do finite element analysis. Baffled face. (Use right tool for the job ?)
(Actually I have personally found .ods files to be somewhat unstable too. Though. .csv seems to be okay if well structured. Mind you I’m the kinda person who still uses DOS for some things……)
I think the point is that at the start of a data collection exercise someone grabs for the first tool available – just to ‘get the thing going’ – and in this world of (blind ?) cosy conventionalism that’s Excel. I can’t see a UK Government department standardising on Open Office somehow……
It’s an interesting aside to consider the data sources and ‘quality’ of the data input, in this context. And Malcolm’s explanation of what’s ‘recorded’ as Covid could make drawing any substantive conclusions from it tentative at best.
Worked for a Russian oil company for a few years a while back, and their IT people were pulling their hair out over the proliferation of Excel spreadsheets by engineers and others. It was an unorganized mess, plus a security threat. I’ve seen it in other companies, but in that one the IT folks had actually identified it as an issue and were trying to do something about it. Open Office would have the same problem.
Veracity of data is a huge problem, anywhere!
Venezuela, under Chavez, mandated Open Office for their gov. agencies. I’m not saying it’s a correlation but look at where they are now.
Mike, when I talk to my friends about the chances of dying from COVID, they are worried about getting long Covid more than dying.
As someone with Long Covid for10 months I would agree !
Well worth reading, especially for Colin and Dan !
Love Di. x
Sent from my iPad
>
I cant help but think that the main driver of policy is hospital admissions rather that deaths. The former is harder to deal with than the latter, politically speaking. Also hospital management is now much better compared to the first wave, so less deaths. There remain millions of vulnerable people yet to come across the virus, most of them eager for vaccination which will stamp on the tail of the pandemic and provide a template for managing the next one.
Comment on the ‘world having gone mad’ surely miss the madness of the pre covid world. Species loss, climate change and ecosystem destruction, behind the emergence of Sars-Cov2 cannot be ignored for much longer, if it not too late already.
I saw today or yesterday that many so-called hospital “admissions” for Covid-19 are in fact people admitted for other reasons who caught the virus in hospital – and were then registered as “Covid-19 admissions”.
Or maybe they didn’t catch it at all but just tested positive on a Qt>35 PCR test?
Exactly, Harry. I regret not having added that stipulation – but there are so many such that it would be tedious to keep adding them.
There was a young doctor on Five Live this morning who said exactly that. People are getting the virus IN HOSPITAL and that is put as the cause of death on the stats.
Thanks Dr K, great summary of the current situation that I read just as I found out we’re going into tier 4!
Hi Malcolm – thank you for the sanity in this madness. One thing raised an eyebrow though. Can you expand upon why you would bet on Laboratory cock up against the Sweet & Sour Bat with Bat Rice and a liberal drizzle of Bat Jus?
All the lab virus stuff is covered in a 2010 document on the Rockefeller Foundation website, and it is known that Fauci was driving it and illegally getting funding for gain of function viruses. When he was stopped, the whole lot was sent to China.
No bat persecution required.
Look up what you can find on lab research into viruses. For many years scientists, paid by government grants in the USA and other countries, have been trying to get animal viruses to attack human cells. Not satisfied with that, they have been trying to “add function” to viruses – in simple language, to make them much more virulent and deadly.
Combine that with the fact that no lab is (or can be) wholly virus-proof, and you can see that for decades now governments have been paying to put our lives at risk.
[The 1916 New York polio epidemic was thought to have caused 23,000 cases and 5,000 deaths through new England the Middle Atlantic states. The case fatality rate of 25% was far above the rate for “wild” polio of less than 1%.].
“Three miles from the epicentre of the outbreak, Simon Flexner and his associates at the Rockefeller Institute at 63rd Street and York Avenue… had been passaging spinal cord tissue containing poliovirus, from one Rhesus monkey spinal cord to another… It is a remarkable coincidence that a unique neurotropic strain of poliovirus was developed a few miles away from an epidemic caused by a uniquely pathogenic strain of the virus… almost anywhere in new York was within a few streets of a rail link to the Rockefeller Institute”.
[And it’s less than two miles walk to Grand Central Station!]
– “Dissolving Illusions: Disease, Vaccines, and the Forgotten History”
Suzanne Humphries and Roman Bystrianyk
ISBN13: 978-1480216891
Joe Dopelle: The Age of Autism has an excellent analysis by the late, great Dan Olmsted about the 1916 New York polio outbreak. Clickable button on the righthand side of the page. A fascinating read.
1whatsgoingon,
The labs were working with bats.
I pretty much wake up most mornings now with the notion that we are fucked!
I read countless articles showing that lockdowns do more harm than good, viruses such as Covid are seasonal due to low vitamin D status in the winter, why on earth do the Gates foundation refuse to fund anything related to vitamin D, why is this little hormone so toxic – Why for that matter are the gates foundations behind all of the organisations at the heart of covid? One research paper showed that ICU admissions could be reduced by 90% if only D levels were optimal (>50) and yet no one wants to even talk about it, if you post anything on social media it gets taken down. Covid has now gathered so much momentum that ANY death could be tagged as a Covid death, ergo no vaccines will work, they cant. A car fatality could flag as a Covid statistic which means there is no end to lockdowns or face masks. This is the new normal.
There’s already talk about Spring 2021 being an optimistic end to the madness but I fear that it wouldn’t take much to get to the end of summer and then here comes the Winter ’21 4th Wave – oh dear god. I fear the only solution to Covid is to take your vitamin D3 supplements, get rid of the face masks (as this does very little than show the government you are still scared and complying) and turn on our politicians.
The economy is tanking. Hospitality will take a long time to recover. Why didn’t the big rich breweries take legal action to question the science (or lack of it) behind the lock down, tiering etc? They all just sucked it up.
Off licenses remain open.
Note that Tim Martin of Wetherspoons tried to do his bit creating a 23 page pamphlet to be made available in all pubs. But shutting the pubs put the mockers on that. See:
https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/~/media/files/pdf-documents/events-2020/wetherspoon-news–do-lockdowns-work.pdf?la=en
Mike,
I so agree. The people simply must stand up. It has been obvious that it does not matter the science, the thousands of expert signatures, petitions, videos, lawsuits – the officials are uninterested. There is a sinister agenda that will not be swayed. And it only succeeds because so many citizens allow it.
Right on
Vit D is cheap as chips – no money in it for Pharma. Nuff said. I read a statistic somewhere ( don’t know if it is true) that an African living in sub Saharan Africa was 1000 times less likely to die of Covid than his brother who had migrated to UK. Now sub Saharan Africa is not exactly a rich place for the majority of the population . The brother in London would probably have a better standard of living and access to better medical care. What he does not have is access to enough sunshine to produce sufficient quantities of vit D in his melanin rich skin even in summer. In both Italy and Spain the vit D levels of the elderly population are abysmal despite sunny springs , summers and autumns because sun avoiding behaviours are practised. Grannies do not go go the beach and strip off – unlike the Germans and Scandinavians who on the whole seem to have had lower death rates. If there is any conspiracy it is the covering up of the importance of vit D sufficiency in modulating the immune system and thus protecting against the ravages of respiratory diseases in general ( well established science) and covid 19 in particular ( plenty of evidence but “fake news”). Df David Grimes’ blog has a lot of good stuff on vit D .
Same applies to countries like Mexico. One word: sombrero.
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION – PROPOSALS ONLY
======================================
Tier 5 – Everyone under house arrest, only one member of the household can leave once a week for shopping purposes.
Tier 6 – Weekly Covid tests at your house, infected people will be dragged into the street and despatched promptly, afterall we must protect the NHS!!
Tier 7 – Napalm all cities whose levels go above 2% Infection
Tier 5 shopping once a week will definitely harm me. I eat lots of blackberries, raspberries and strawberries. They may last a couple of days in the fridge, but after that they decompose. They then go on the compost heap, where we could add a few well known names in the UK
Well, as long as you’re picking them yourself and not relying on crops grown elsewhere and flown in that’s alright then.
I might suggest the Carnivore Diet – nothing but meat (you have to eat fatty cuts though, and perhaps some oily fish).
Meat and fish can be frozen and kept almost indefinitely.
Frango, you could indeed suggest a carnivore diet. However, I once would have suggested diets, but I am now more circumspect about doing so. https://youtu.be/mioR_WrkRaU Is one example of the complexity of the gut and it’s requirements. Stephen Gundry has quite a bit to say on the matter and explains some of the details of the benefits of particular foods. A diet may suit a person at one time, but it can’t be a one-size-fits-all. I’m not trying to have an argument against your suggestion, but just to point out it is not a simple matter.
One of the biggest problems seems to be leaky gut. Another rabbit hole to go down.
Ah, my suggestion was a little mischievous. If and when we get to a point where people actually have difficulty feeing themselves adequately, it would seem the obstacles in the lavatory pipe would just have to be removed by force.
More seriously, of course I wouldn’t recommend anyone to embark on a diet that might harm them – or even make them unhappy. But it’s useful to know that the Carnivore Diet might be a practical option, if only for a limited period.
I myself could get by, if necessary, on nothing but water for maybe 9-10 months. Yes, I am carrying that much adipose tissue.
Indeed ‘Yes’ AhNotepad – “… One of the biggest problems seems to be leaky gut. Another rabbit hole to go down.”
Back to Prof Ebringer, the ‘leaky gut’ was one of his research platforms. No one has yet taken his place on the arthritidis field.
Been re-reading Orwell’s ‘1984’ ?
Always!
Thank for the post (see also Ivor Cummings et al).
In assessing the severity (of the second wave) perhaps we should be looking at hospital admissions. This takes resources from other serious illnesses and we hear daily from the media how the NHS is at breaking point – not quite sure how a hospital breaks but….
Presumably the patients being treated for covid 19 are confirmed to have it, so numbers really are high. How do hospital admissions compare with other years?
Has anyone else noticed that the graph of the ‘second wave’ is so very different the the first one? Almost like it’s a different disease. Oh, wait… [headlines about new variant… evolution… easier to catch… mumble… mumble].
Love it. it all seems so logical to normal folks but the lockdown maniacs will always have the “imagine how many millions would have died if we did nothing” argument to fall back on. Trouble with all this is there is no penalty for causing carnage with lockdowns, only penalty for “not doing enough” – Prof Ferguson is a master of this. It also doesn’t help that the media want the doomsday scenario so they keep pushing this nonsense.
Be a good boy now, take the jabs, and toddle along.
In the fine article, Dr Kendrick showed several graphs of countries that did not lock down and had far fewer deaths than the UK.
I’m having to self isolate from stupidity. Got into a major row with friends yesterday. Them shouting people have died! Me saying we are having a normal respiratory death season. Them saying I am only listening to one side of the argument, me saying I am looking at the raw data and they are looking at media hysteria. No win, bad feelings all round. I went home and I’m staying home.
By the way an old lady friend said she heard the new strain was more infective but less dangerous. Is that how the polititians are going to slide out of this?
I sympathise. I know exactly how you feel. I think I will have no friends left soon!! Already feels like relationships with friends has changed.
I have found the same, but I don’t much care. People are who they are, and no amount of hand-wringing or worrying will change that.
Appreciate your friends and family for their better points, and if they are unable to reason just accept that. A cat can’t reason much either, but it can still be excellent company.
We will celebrate the new year tonight with a couple and a family, the only ones we know who are not insane. We will have hugs. And I am quite weak…but i don’t live in fear of this and there are so many ways to treat it. I had my two girls and 3 grandkids in October and it was the best time ever. Shortly after that I took a turn for the worse. One family had a cold. Maybe they were no longer contagious but no one else got it. They asked me if they should come. I said Yes. I want to see my grandchildren. Should I die without seeing them? When I think of the two littles fighting for my lap, it makes my heart happy.
Well done anna. Happy New Year. What’s the point of a long miserable lonely existence? Better t have a shorter happy one. You never know, you may get a long and happy one.
I bet someone will disagree, and length of life is their priority.
“By the way an old lady friend said she heard the new strain was more infective but less dangerous”.
That describes the common cold. Or am I missing something?
I (against my better judgment and under pressure from a family member) got tested recently whilst suffering from what at any other time would be labelled a common/head cold. Only reasoning for testing was several other people I have had v limited contact also going for tests who had exactly same symptoms. We all came back positive. So my take was ‘so what does being told I (might) have coronavirus change about the fact I ostensibly have a cold?’ – but of course in this new dystopian world of Covid it’s not about me any more and all about the harm I pose to others. And yet nobody else in my immediate family is ill so if it’s so contagious how does that work, esp if you buy the other gotcha bit about none of us having any immunity due to this being a ‘new’ virus. I wonder if eventually they will tie themselves up in knots with the ever changing conditions of this virus to the point where it make no sense to anyone. But sadly I think hysteria and fear may still win the day 😔
Liz,
In my opinion it is time for us to turn their arguments around on them and start calling them out for their selfishness. Why are they willing to hurt children and many young people to attempt to save their withered old a**es? Does anyone who has lost their job or business over lockdowns really argue in their favor? I bet that is rare. Ask those who favor lockdown if they would be willing to give up their paycheck or pension?
Is this class war?
Thought for the day
– if ending lockdowns saved just 1 life, then it would be worth it.
anna m, I think you will find that the elderly are not “attempt[ing] to save their withered old a**es?” On the contrary, they are if anything more powerless than the average citizen. The politicians and civil servants who bray about “protecting Nan” are just using the elderly as pretexts for their own purposes.
How many “withered old a**es” do you imagine were responsible for drawing up the coronavirus legislation and rules?
Hi Joe,
For the most part I agree with you. I happen to have a bunch of friends and acquaintances who seem to be totally onboard with all the propaganda. All financially secure. (For now.) They brook no discussion. Average age about 70.
I have noticed the same, anna m. (By the way, I am a healthy 72). One factor that may be relevant is that older people remember a time when authority was more generally respected, and ordinary people believed what they were told by doctors, scientists and government. (Rightly or wrongly – I suspect wrongly).
Speaking for myself, I think – and have done so since the first lockdown was announced – that the official policies are completely wrong. Had I been in charge, I would have inclined to let the epidemic run its course, taking advice if things looked like getting out of hand.
I am well aware that my pension depends on people who are still working, and I am astonished that anyone – let alone cabinet ministers – could imagine that stopping people from working wouldn’t ruin the economy and impoverish the great majority of us.
But of course those who dictate those policies are not in the same boat. They have their private steam yachts to take them away to their tropical islands.
Might I also point you to a previous comment?
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/12/30/what-is-left-to-say/#comment-202268
Dr Kendrick,
This is perhaps the best posts on the response to CoVID-19 I have read.
I am, we are, in your debt.
Thank you
Etienne Taylor
On Wed, Dec 30, 2020 at 7:39 AM Dr. Malcolm Kendrick wrote:
> Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: ” 30th December 2020 I have not written much > about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has > simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, > written many hundreds of years ago. In it, Dante describe” >
Dear Dr Kendrick
Do you have any information as to how many of those making up the original spike in deaths died because Doctors killed them by ventilating them when this was an entirely inappropriate treatment?
After the initial relentless political/media campaign insisting that ventilators were the be all and end all they suddenly went totally quiet over the issue of ventilators (after New York’s Dr Kyle Sidell released a social media statement saying he believied ventilation was killing covid patients).
Do you have any reliable data regarding this?
Nope, I would just be guessing. However, when things go strangely silent, you know something is being quietly covered up. ‘Ventilators, no, never used them here. Don’t know what you’re talking about.’
I read on Twitter that there is a bit of an oxygen shortage and that less oxygen is needed if a patient is ventilated that if not. So there is a tendency still to put them on a ventilator. Is that true?
I just looked up the map of ICU capacity per county in Germany.
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-infizierte-genesene-tote-alle-live-daten-a-242d71d5-554b-47b6-969a-cd920e8821f1
(scroll down to “Die Situation in den Krankenhäusern” and go to the “regional” tab)
There are 5639 Covid patients in ICU, and about half of them are being ventilated. With all the reports on staff shortages in ICUs and how ventilated Covid patients make for a much higher workload, I don’t think they would be putting them on ventilators if they didn’t believe there was a significant benefit. Interestingly, the percentage of ventilated Covid patients was only on the order of 10% in September. The difference might be that with the increased prevalence, it is now again getting to many elderly patients.
Still, it would be interesting to compare outcomes to other European countries, even if it might amount to comparing apples and oranges (different ICU capacity, different levels of immunity in the population).
Last April in New York.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/80-of-coronavirus-patients-on-ventilators-in-new-york-die-0btv3vbw8
Every time I read one of Dr Kendrick’s articles, I feel my sanity return.
Without wanting to indulge in flattery, I think I feel rather as Scorates’ friends did when they heard him talk. The world didn’t get any better, but they felt a lot better about it.
Alas and dammit, I meant “Socrates”. But I am sure everyone got my drift.
The Lawyer that successfully prosecuted VW over the emissions fraud and Deutsche bank over mortgage fraud says his team are now ready to start legal action against those responsible for orchestrating the covid19 fraud.
He is interviewed on bitchute –
Reiner Fuellmich | Full Length Interview in Berlin | Planet Lockdown
Bringing those that organised this massive fraud down is the only chance of preventing it from happening again.
Tim Fallon- I am pinning my hopes on this guy! I pray that he succeeds. Also, were you (or anyone) aware of the fact that there was a huge scandal in Europe back in 2009-2010, involving the same “players”- (WHO, Dr. Drosten, members of the German government, and even Dr. Fauci?) That was the H1N1 Swine Flu. There was a push to sell vaccines to all of Europe (mainly by people who benefit from vaccine sales); the media and the public got wind of it, and people refused to take the vaccines. “How soon we forget!” I didn’t even know about it at the time, but I’ve been reading up on it now.
The PCR testing companies should get their fees reduced by the percentage of false positives they report. But how to test the percentage of false positives?
Martin Back,
As far as I know Florida is the only state in the US that now requires the PCR cycle count to be returned with a positive diagnosis. My own opinion is that a high cycle count is not so much a “false positive” as a “meaningless” one.
But that one change, adopted nationally (and internationally) would go a long way to putting the number of “positives” in perspective.
Give 55 negative samples to a PCR test and see 4 positive outcomes.
Test false positive rate = 3.6%.
This is what I got out of an Abbott Laboratory PCR-test Manual.
Now randomly test one million people with that test and see 36,000 positives.
The prevalence might be about 0.3% though, which is 3,000 real positives, so 3,000 of those 36,000 were real positive (simply put).
So you see 33,000 false positives in 36,000 positives which means a population level false positive rate of
100%*(33,000/36,000) = 92% (as our basic numbers have only 2 significant digits).
92% false positives from random large scale population testing.
That’s not very informative, is it?
Then there are people who were infected and recovered, but still have viral fragments inside them. They would return a positive test, and strictly speaking it would not be a false positive because the test detected real viral material. But the positive result would be worse than useless — it would be misleading.
Martin Back,
That would be my “meaningless positive”, but “misleading positive” might be a better description.
So how about this? You get COVID and recover, and you have naso-pharyngeal antibodies (IgA’s) that block reinfection (note the vaccine probably won’t do this). You get tested and you come out positive. The test is detecting whole virus, bound up by the antibodies, not fragments. Another “misleading positive”, because it implies, wrongly, catching COVID doesn’t confer immunity.
No end to the ways we can keep the pandemic going!
And a lot of the kids who got the SF vaccine now have narcolepsy. But you don’t hear the mainstream media worrying too much about that now do you????
Good news. All power to Fuellmich’s elbow.
Well, as the world can see, the US courts are largely corrupt. Hope they do better over there.
This is single best synopsis of the current response to the COVID-19 pandemic I have read. Dr. Kendrick has done us all a great service with this post.
Wonderful article just what I needed some common sense . Feel so sad what has become of this world will there be an end to this madness ???
Keep up your splendid work Dr Malcolm Kendrick shame more people are not listening to common sense instead of following the sheep
In South Africa we are in the midst of a second surge in summer which is double that of the first surge so bang go any theories on seasonality. Discovery a large medical aid group has said that 36% of its clients over 60 land up in hospital with serious complications. The hospitals and ICU’s throughout SA are full.
This cannot be just another influenza.
Is that across the whole country? Is it in parts of the country that had lower numbers back in March/April? Are these numbers based on tests or medical diagnoses? Also the profile in South Africa of the infection is different to that in higher latitudes, if you look at Hope-Simpson’s book on influenza he describes the different trajectories of infection at different latitudes. This phenomenon has been noted in the southern states of the USA.
Positive single-stranded ss(+)RNA viruses are (mostly) resistant to everyday UV (no summer burn-off in the wider environment). DNA, however, is not UVa resistant. Crucially moreover, DNA also has an in-built proofreading cell ‘editor’ to kill (…autophagy) genetic mistakes/errors, but some DNA viruses can sneakily hijack autophagy for their own direct benefit. Critically, such cell ‘editors’ do not kill RNA viruses; however, that is in part why RNA viruses are so highly dangerous, as they can wreak havoc by releasing millions of mutant copies of themselves. As such, that is what RNA viruses (…positive, or negative types) just happen to do. It is normal. It’s a thing. Changes evidenced (not Mutations, as has been incorrectly written-up by NERVTAG, UK), are not a pathogenic concern… Viral strains are, but coping out with hindsight ‘variants’ is cheap! You cocked up.
Examples of negative ss(-)RNA viruses are Influenza, Ebola, and Rabies. DNA viruses (for example Herpes simplex [Shingles]) can, however, but rarely, also mutate by random chance, but nowhere nearly as dramatically as RNA viruses can do so.
RNA viruses, moreover, are highly susceptible / unstable to exposure to alkaline environments (e.g. such as would be found with people who are in good physical health, and hence are not acidic). DNA viruses, on the other hand, are NOT (so susceptible) to an alkaline milieu but, as otherwise, that is why a decent diet / lifestyle / fitness regime is so critically important in giving some protection / immunity against RNA Coronaviruses (Winters Common Cold).
Folk who are unwell, with Metabolic Syndrome (Insulin resistance] / Diabetes, and pre-Diabetes), suffer terribly from acute acidosis as well as with high HbA1c (glycated [sugar] haemoglobin). These factors, and senescence, are ambrosia for the RNA virus that causes Covid-19 disease. It presents as something of a ‘targeted’ perfect storm.
One of my new year’s resolutions is to improve my metabolic health. The official start to the new year is when Waitrose runs out of cut-price mince pies.
When I was a child every school (I went to 11 schools due to being an Army ‘patch brat’), every school had a fat kid. Today, every school has a thin kid.
Charles,
Do you have good reason to believe that stuff? Are respiratory illnsses not seasonal in SA?
Very many thanks. I’ve followed you all the way through this scenario, always looking for affirmation of my take on it and your sensible, informed insights.. Thankfully I have found them, I’ve also appreciated the input of the respondents in the comments.
Please continue having something to say!
Kind regards
First, full points to AhNotepad 🙂 🙂
But I’d like to see an article about what seems to me to be the most important covid issue currently – are the hospitals being overwhelmed?
It doesn’t matter whether more people are dying of covid or not – hopefully fewer now than in March/April because we know more about how to treat it as well as the other points. What matters is how many people are admitted to hospital and how long they stay there whilst dying or recovering, and how those numbers compare with the available bed-weeks in our hospitals. And staff-weeks as well!
It seems to me that governments are trying to manage events against these criteria, so judging them solely against deaths is pointless.
“But I’d like to see an article about what seems to me to be the most important covid issue currently – are the hospitals being overwhelmed?”
Lockdown Sceptics deals with such matters almost every day. UK Column often does, too; and Dr No… and many others.
Spoiler: the answer is a big fat “NO!”
https://lockdownsceptics.org
https://ukcolumn.org
https://dr-no.co.uk
“The NHS, to its credit, has started releasing weekly reports of total and occupied general and critical bed numbers, with daily figures for each trust. This means we can compare occupancy over the most recent reported week, 14th to 20th December, and compare the figures to the nearest in dates week in recent years (week 3 in this file). It turns out that current occupancies, both for general acute and critical care beds are actually marginally lower than in recent years. Current general and acute bed occupancy is 89%, compared to 94% in 2019 and 91% in 2018, and this despite the facts that this year compared to last, we have several thousand less beds available. The pattern is repeated for critical care beds: 77% occupancy, compared to 84% in 2019 and 81% in 2018”.
– https://dr-no.co.uk/2020/12/26/situation-normal/
Indeed. People simply cannot believe that this is true. The main problems is that, with so much testing, many hospital staff are having to self isolate, so there is a significant staffing issue – rather than a bed capacity issue. We were not allowed to be tested in March April. Goodness knows what would have happened if there had been testing back then.
But,if there is a significant staffing issue, how can the Nightingales be readied? As stated in yesterday’s briefing. The Nightingales twitter accounts are silent as are thosewho worked on them and I’ve seen reports of them being dismantled.
Agree, of course, that beds are no good without staff (and that’s always been a problem too – think back to our time as junior hospital doctors…). But the thing is, the sit-reps show most trusts are at or below normal capacity (compared to recent years), yet the MSM reports the hospitals are overwhelmed, patients being treated in ambulances etc, ie the narrative is there are too many patients for the number of beds, rather than not enough staff, though of course there is an interaction. Perhaps there is yet another interpretation: the sit-reps are correct, occupancy is at or below normal, but the reason for that is not because of lack of demand, but because there are not enough staff. But that seems unlikely: if it were the case, then there would be, to put it bluntly, bodies on the streets… and that would definitely, and rightly, be on the front pages. Dr No suspects the most likely scenario (to use that now much tarnished word) is that trusts are managing capacity, perhaps in ways that will turn out to be far from ideal (as in dumping patients back into the community, as happened in the first wave).
The other things is the sit-reps, and so the occupancy rates calculated by Dr no, do not show steady state numbers for available beds, instead they fluctuate from day to day. This may (or may not) reflect staff shortages when there is a reduction in available beds, meaning the staff shortages are in effect taken into account, if that makes sense (if you have less overall beds because of staff shortages, but are still at or below normal occupancy rates, then nil desperandum).
According to Ivor Cummins and covidrecovery.ie, two rapid antigen tests taken 12 – 24 hours apart would pick up as many pre-symptomatic cases as PCR tests, without all the false positives, and as such could be used to ease staff shortages in hospitals and care homes.
I received a reply from my Hospital Trust a few days ago confirming that there were 20 Covid patients admitted at the time and that 130 had died with Covid mentioned on their certificate since last March to the end of Nov. This is in the SE comprising of 2 large Hospitals and one small one and it is a very elderly area. I was quite speechless especially because the very next day we were placed in tier 4. Even if this figure has now doubled over the last couple of days it does not demonstrate a crisis. So either non of these Hospitals have any staff because they are all self isolating or there really is something amiss. Perhaps a combination of both.
Today “ICU Occupancy Still Below Average” https://lockdownsceptics.org/2021/01/01/latest-news-241/#icu-occupancy-still-below-average
Sorry to come late to this. There’s a lot of nonsense being discussed about occupancy rates. The reasons occupancy rates are same/lower than previous years is (a) ~90% is the maximum average occupancy that can be achieved. An average means sometimes higher, sometimes lower, not constant at that level. Any hospital that ran closer to 100% average occupancy in acute & general, never mind critical care, would be under constant pressure, with patients not just on trolleys in the corridors, but littering the waiting rooms and lining up in the car park. That means (b) many patients who would normally be treated, are not being treated; (c) as Dr Kendrick observes, staffing levels are down, as a result of a combination of genuinely ill staff and staff isolating. None of this is inconsistent with hospitals being under enormous pressure – quite the opposite.
It’s a schoolboy error, made repeatedly in these comments, to assume that you can discern the truth from a simple, one-dimensional dataset. Data is vital (and arguably under-reported throughout this period) but it is open to multiple interpretations, and unless you look at all the relevant inputs, including the direct experience of people working in hospitals, like Dr Kendrick and me, you cannot reach accurate conclusions.
Excellent, Doc.
Weariness with the whole thing comes through. And your ending is spot on. Anyone who thinks those responsible will get their comeuppance are sadly wrong.
That Professor Ferguson is still listened to points to that.
One thing I have noted, is how many scientists are unscientific.
I have watched many of Jim Al-Khalili’s brilliant documentary and been enchanted. I have read his book ‘Life on the Edge’ twice – still trying to grapple with biology on the quantum scale. And yet two days ago he wrote in the Guardian – a paper I once was proud to say started life in my city but has now become ‘gutter press’ for would be intellectuals.
And his point was that this debate was between science and disinformation. There was no recognition that those in the medical profession and science were actually divided on the subject.
I find that his non-acceptance of difference of opinion unscientific and downright dishonest. Also, considering I’ve read his book twice, it’s offensive that he should point the accusation at me and many others like me.
On a wider note, I’m actually shocked at the number of scientists that do allow themselves to be ruled by emotion once they’re outside their comfort zone.
In recent years Professor Brian Cox, Sir Paul Nurse and the Science Historian Naomi Oreskes come to mind.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/28/scientists-fought-coronavirus-now-they-face-the-battle-against-disinformation
After I read Al-Khalili’s article, my feelings were much the same as yours. Used to admire him; now I just feel sad.
Exactly, Thunkit. My first reaction was disappointment – real disappointment. It makes watching or reading his stuff quite difficult. Though I would recommend ‘Life on the Edge’.
Oh, I should mention also Johnjoe McFadden. As it was a co-authorship.
I am, alas, a life member of Humanism UK. I have taken many non-religious funeral ceremonies. Jim Al-Khalili has been president of it and is Vice-President and a patron. I am now ashamed to be part of an organisation that prides itself on the matter of human rights but fails to consider alternative explanations for what is going on in the world. We have the association mentioned in our wills but I think that may well change. I feel so let down by them.
Likewise, the French have made a mockery of their Liberty, Equality and Fraternity.
Thank you again, for yet another excellent summary. What would we do without these voices of sanity, popping up in the inbox periodically? l would like to share one faint hope for 2021.
For all his many faults, well covered elsewhere, Boris Johnson has an excellent brain, when he cares to employ it. Now that he’s achieved Brexit, perhaps he could put it to good use by paying real attention, personally, to the whole business of Covid. If he could only be persuaded to set aside the advice from official government advisers, and spend a few days properly engaging (ie not just a token, cosmetic meeting) with the likes of Heneghan, Gupta, Lee, Cummins, yourself and the numerous other experts out there currently being ignored, because their views contradict the prevailing orthodoxy, it is difficult to believe he wouldn’t see sense. Surely?
And surely Boris owes into the British public to not just rely on the lazy concept of ‘the science’, but to research it himself? He needs to realise that there is a completely different interpretation that can be put on all the various facts and figures, one that accords far better with his own libertarian instincts. And that Rishi Sunak would probably support! Allowing for the fact that his attention has been elsewhere during 2020, and that too much has had to be delegated to the likes of Matt Hancock, perhaps Boris should now get his own head around the situation. Probably alone among our rather pathetic politicians, he has the intellectual grasp, if he cares to use it, the position and the personality to reframe and refocus our whole approach to Covid in 2021.
Can but hope…
Unfortunately, FW, the time when a political leader like the PM could simply make up his own mind and impose the policy that seemed best to him is long gone.
Nowadays, probably in almost every country, it’s all done by groupthink. Which is VERY BAD NEWS INDEED for citizens, as the collective intelligence of a committee seems to be something like the square root of the sum of its members’ individual IQs.
About the last British PM to take full responsibility for executive decisions was the Duke of Wellington. There is a story that, asked after his first cabinet meeting how it had gone, he replied that it was damned odd: he had given the ministers their orders, but instead of going off to carry them out, they seemed disposed to stay and argue about them.
Perhaps you might share some evidence for your assertion that Boris has an excellent brain. So far I cannot see much . Plenty evidence of him being a bone idle lying chancer though. Even if he did have an excellent brain his laziness would get in the way of any real turn around in his approach to covid.
I have read one or two of his books about the ancient world that were competent and showed a good knowledge of the subject. Mind you, one of the things public schools are best at is teaching pupils to be fluent and persuasive, both in speech and on paper.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute®ion=World
Thank you Malcolm. As ever, brilliant. Am also delighted to see both you and Rajendra Sharma are part of UKMFA
No doubt in my mind that what you day is right. What about the “filling of hospitals” and that the NHS can’t cope?
Interesting that many people will be vaccinated just when the virus will naturally be decreasing in the Spring. No doubt the vaccine will get the credit.
Just as with smallpox, polio and most of the other infectious diseases, for which vaccines were produced after they had peaked and were on the way out. “Dissolving Illusions” (referred to frequently in this thread) has many details.
A thought on how people don’t understand risk (or refuse to). As well as just how bad the press are on this:
[The August Sturgis rally] attracted about 460,000 people from across the United States over 10 days
In its own study, the Associated Press found that at least 290 people in 12 states tested positive for the virus after attending the rally.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/80-covid-19-cases-minnesota-traced-sturgis-rally/story?id=74336914 [Nov 21]
At an infection rate of 0.06%, the Sturgis rally was probably the safest place to be in the USA.
If only the average citizen could distinguish clearly between 0.06% and 60%…
Joe, that’s easy, 0.06% is absolute risk, 60% is relative risk.
If only the average citizen could distinguish clearly between absolute risk and relative risk…
Easily fixed, make “Doctoring Data” mandatory reading, with exam, while waiting for Rona jab.
Sorry, thumbed down in error.
Easily fixed. Just thumb up and wait a few seconds. It should change.
Interesting re lack of excess deaths since the earlier peak etc. BUT, I note your article has made no mention of a couple of other interesting issues…..
Q1. What about the documented cases of younger people with no other obvious conditions or co-morbidities who have died quickly (apparently) due to Covid 19. I added “apparently” as you may of course say the cause of death may have been incorrectly registered on the death certificates. But my point is, has flu been known to similarly kill otherwise young/healthy people to the same extent?
Q2: What about “long Covid” as it is known? I have seen features in the news about young previously healthy people who have suffered terribly for many weeks with extreme fatigue or lack of energy since testing positive for Covid, and indeed I personally know two people suffering this (one an ambulance driver and the other a nurse) who have been off work for several weeks with these symptoms and still are showing no signs of improvement. Even if it wont kill most of us then surely we need to know more about the other symptoms or long-term effects, and such effects should be considered in any strategies for dealing with this.
Otherwise thanks heaps for your insight.
Flu kills more younger people. The average age of death in the Spanish flu was 28. (Not the current 82). There are many, many people who have suffered ‘long flu’ and ‘long all sorts of other viral illnesses.’ It is simply that no-one paid much heed to them, and the medical profession tended to write them off as neurotic malingerers. Perhaps long Covid will be worse, but there is no evidence for this, yet. It is just another thing that has been thrown into the mix to ‘prove’ that all the stupid actions taken are worthwhile.
Yes, I have been one of the statistics suffering ‘long flu’ – had a really bad dose many years ago leading to 6 weeks bed-ridden, developed ‘walking pneumonia’, and fatigue lasted months. Even now, 20 + years later, if I get run down I start to get wheezy – which never happened pre-flu.
“Spanish Flu” was something of an outlier among influenza types in being more harmful to young people – people of the age carried off by Covid, 80-year-olds and so on, tended to survive “Spanish Flu”.
Waldorf, was it the flu? Or was it the inappropriate treatments that caused the deaths? I wonder if in 100 years from now the questions will be similar over the millions killed by Sars CoV2, when really it was the lack of HCQ, Ivermection, and the excessive use of some vaccine or other.
Flu vs. COVID-19: the numbers, graphed, easy to read.
Interesting graph. Without going in depth, is it fair to say the difference is constant but fairly minuscule- except at around 10 years of age where the risk is less with covid ?
That’ll wind him/her up! Note that the vertical scale is logarithmic. As I see it, they’re saying that Covid is many more times fatal than ‘flu, but this old graph has been doing the rounds. It pays no attention to current practice of writing in Covid as cause of death by default. The poster hasn’t answered any of the points in the article.
I believe lots of people get “long glandular fever”. I certainly did, as did many of my friends and so did my daughter some 30 years later. I can still remember how unwell I felt for months after glandular fever and would very suddenly become absolutely bone-crushingly tired, where I would feel really nauseous if I didn’t go to bed very quickly. It was a good 6 months before I was fully back to normal.
My daughter was diagnosed with it at the end of 2019. After three months she went back to the GP, as she was still absolutely wiped out and was just told to get lots of rest!!!! One wonders what amazing therapies the long-covid clinics will come up with.
Hopefully not GET and CBT. However, its the only tool they currently have.
In regards to Q1, I can account for one of the 380 under 60 deaths as a friend of mine got involved in an Car accident which killed him, he had previously tested positive although this clearly wasnt the cause of death it was noted on the death certificate. Perhaps the other 379 were similar circumstances ? ?
There’s no way to win with Covid. What it comes down to is a balance of tragedies, in making government policy.
It is tragic to see young people die or be debilitated for life with long Covid, and somewhat less tragic to see older people die. But it’s also tragic to see businesses destroyed which were built up with hope and financial sacrifice, jobs lost, education disrupted, a few getting ultra-rich while many get poorer, etc etc.
Personally, I think most governments have elected to save granny and stuff the economy because they don’t have the courage to make the right decision. They know they will get slaughtered by the media who will play up the excess deaths angle, and they will do anything to avoid the experience.
Martin, what are they saving granny from? If we took any notice of the arbitrary, fact-free based, dictates, granny would not get to see and play with grandchildren. That would be good for what? Certainly not mental well being, or having some enjoyment in life. This is what they want, no more family, no more social contact, nothing that people could enjoy. All blamed on a virus so dangerous and lethal that only a tiny percentage of the population gets infected and go on to have anything more than a mild reaction. And what about the mental well being of the grandchildren who cannot understand why they cannot get near their grandparents?
They have no interest in granny, they just have interest in throwing their power about driven by people who do know better, but tell lies in order to change behaviour.
Martin,
I find such ideas, plausible as they may seem, hopelessly naive. Until enough people are willing to admit to themselves that we are caught up in a sinister agenda, call it fascism, we are doomed. The agenda is destruction and those participating in this coordinated effort are our enemies.
So true
Thank you. This is a dose of sanity.
I recall my own father when he was in his mid to late 80s. He had many things wrong with him. Age related. If I thought that I had even so much as a suggestion of a cold then I stayed away from him. So did everyone else and he policed that himself. It was kind of obvious that a cold could potentially kill him. Let alone flu. Society was not shut down though in some sort of attempt to prevent my father getting a cold.
He passed away five years ago at 89. At Christmas. One of the final causes was a respiratory illness. Despite all the precautions. Sepsis was also present. But he had also had a heart attack, had kidney problems and all sorts of other issues including diabetes. When I discussed the cause of death with the Doctor he explained some of the complexity. I agreed that we call it Old Age. Which was the reality. He told me that many people dislike that on the Death Certificate though. My guess is that in December 2019 my father would have been included as a Covid related death.
Can fully see the complexities of diagnosis that you write about, Dr Kendrick. These things really are not as simple as we want them to be.
I agree very much with your suggested way out of this too. My fear is the same as yours though: having done this once, nobody in power will want to admit it was not the right thing to do. Given that so many people generally have also strongly supported what we have done too, then they do not want to consider the possibility that it may not have helped. Anyone who has diligently worn a tight fitting mask everywhere really does not want to hear that it did not help. They want to feel that it does.
Both government and governed are just in too deep and this cycle may well perpetuate itself. This is why the only answer that seems acceptable right now is to keep doubling down on the same misguided policies. The vaccine is then the only exit route that provides a way out without having to admit this was all stupid. But, I share your questions on the vaccine. I have not seen any true evidence either that tells me whether it will achieve anything. We are living in very difficult times, where politics, health and general science have all morphed into one. This is not beneficial for any of these professions. The concept of weighing up evidence and making decisions based on it seems to be a lost skill.
So many things are a syndrome these days. In a case such as your father’s where there are many factors contributing to his death, I think they should call it GAFS — General Organ Failure Syndrome.
Maybe the spike in April was partly caused by the lockdown? I say this because Covid was already around before Christmas 2019 (I reckon I caught it on Dec 20 2019 from a coughing removal man from London) but we carried on as normal. When the lockdown came, many elderly were discharged from hospital and sent to care homes and GP visits were withdrawn. The other thought is that accepting it has been badly handled is one thing but as well as ‘cock up’ it might be useful to keep it going as it serves a purpose. The motivation might be for eg it is useful cover for introducing changes, policies and protecting embarrassing NHS waiting lists/failings. It is also making a lot of money from some such as those who sell drugs, IT etc. In the long run, putting everyone on a database would be welcomed by the security services. Our freedom is slipping out the back door as we look out the front.
As I think I’ve probably said before, in the urgent care centre where I work there was a not insignificant number of patients reporting persistent cough lasting 1 or 2 weeks, occasionally longer with mild fever (37.6-37.8) in October 2019 this increased slightly over November 2019; both my wife and I had a persistent cough that lasted 4-6 weeks. I know that I remarked to patients that there were some nasty viruses going round.
If this was SARS-CoV-2 then there must be a significant number of people who have some immunity, which makes the current decisions even more inappropriate. I did obtain the number of admissions of people with respiratory disorders into my local acute trust for the period September 2019 to January 2020, and as far as I am aware this year has been no different, I’ll put in another FOI request in the new year.
Amazing and thoughtful analysis, thanks. Why doesn’t the SAGE experts know this or are they more interested in what’s really in it for themselves and not for the greater good?
I read today that Spain is keeping a database of people who refuse Covid-19 vaccines and that this will be shared across the EU and that it may prevent travelling – if this is true, then anyone travelling should also be tested for other contagious diseases like TB, hepatitis and HIV to name but a few before being allowed entry to any country, but somehow I doubt that this will come to pass as it will be an infringement of ones human rights!
Andrew, some of the SAGE experts do know this, but they are into behavioural change, not looking after peoples’ health.
And then in the distant future they realised that the PCR testing was so unreliable that it was that alone that was the reason behind the whole thing.
Spot on. A pseudo-epidemic from testing with an over-sensiitive test alone.
In China they simply stopped testing, and there the ‘epidemic’ is completely over.
Dr. Kendrick thank you so much for your balanced insightful blogs throughout 2020. They have helped keep me calm while global Governments have lost all sense of proportion and abandoned rational thought. You deserve the very best for 2021. Lang may yer lum reek!
Thank you for another great post, honest and clear for the non-experts among us. I’m of the whole world’s gone mad banner. I bought into it initially and thought that at least our beautiful planet was getting a much deserved break from our excesses, but as Summer approached and I watched as things played out among our political and scientific classes, something just began to feel wrong. I noticed the absence of debate on/in media, I noticed the absence of evidence and how ugly the narrative creators, policy makers were becoming in their ‘you’re either with us or against us’ communications, at least they were here in Ireland. Professionals who spoke up were being told their positions were untenable. The only evidence of any human decency was among the minority informed dissenters. Those pushing the narrative, professionals and lay people alike were like rabid dogs baying for more blood. It was, is ugly to watch and listen to it all. Truth has always been scarce among our politicians, but Scientists, we now realise are their bed fellows, or at least a dogmatic strand of Science which has destroyed the integrity of the profession. And as for journalism, where are the truth seekers gone? My, former, trusted sources for balanced reporting, BBC, RTE One, Guardian, Times, all dead to me now and I will never support them again. RTE even had the audacity to create a questionnaire about people, of a certain age (mature) (me) seeking their information from suspect sources, and they wondered about us. I’ve also heard comedians, of a certain age 20/30s, sneering at mature family members who are choosing to search for other points of view around covid on social media. When did questioning and critical thinking become something to rubbish. If we can no longer depend on mainstream media, we have to reach out, despite the labeling, diminishing tags. Vaccinations are currently being rolled out among our old in the nursing homes, and I think it’s tantamount to our vulnerable being used as Guinea pigs for a monstrous strand of Science and the medical profession seems to be willing to stand by and even carry out orders. To find ourselves in a world where Science, medicine, politics and media are all singing from the same hymn sheet on a questionable narrative beggars belief, and is absolutely overwhelming at times, and the answers to how we got ourselves here require an analysis too detailed for here. I’m glad I found your blog Dr. Kendrick. I share your posts where I can, though I know very few people who are actually interested, sadly.
We are the keepers of the flame of truth. It is getting a bit of a battering at present. Luckily it never goes out completely, but people are having a bloody good go, at present.
Thank you Dr. Kendrick you are so right in saying that we are keepers of the flame of truth – long may it burn! In the midst of this insanity we have to tend our flame for future generations. xxxx
That’s a wonderful post Doreen. Your final sentence is telling. I too share this blog on our local internet ‘discussion’ group. People, including friends, think I’m a crank. Most of them are more bothered about where to get their hair done or dog groomed. Then they’re up in arms when the doggy parlour is deemed non-essential.
‘Don’t yell at me,’ I tell them. One woman told me that it was people like me, pedalling conspriacy theories, that are the reason we’re in such a mess.
This is not a loony, this is an otherwise rational person who holds down a decent job and has successfully raised a family. One of the majority who just read the headlines and take it all in.
I am now going to don my coat and woolly hat and walk the (ungroomed) dog. Just me and him with the fox and the deer and nobody to spoil it.
I’ll come back after my magic hour to tier 4. Utter insanity.
My husband thinks I am nuts also.
My wife knows I’m nuts.
I share your feelings. I’m also in Ireland. I cannot get my head around the whole thing. I never imagined that so many people – particularly my 3rd-level educated colleagues and friends – could be so lamentably and hopelessly lacking in the desire to at the very least question the narrative and seek to inform themselves at probably the most momentous time in their lives.
Like you, after initially being convinced, I very soon began to notice (how could one not?) the complete lack of balance and the incessant fear-mongering in the media. It was simply incredible.
And yet, just today a poll on Journal.ie (yes, yes I know) shows 75% of respondents in favour of going back into the severest lockdown. It is truly bewildering stuff. The comment section alone would drive you to the madhouse.
We are now in the middle of one of the greatest, most expensive cases of ass-covering in history. The double down will continue until the vaccine saves us all.
Or kills us all.
This is the only pandemic where the fearmongering and prevention measures are more deadly than the virus.
Why are there no lock downs and masks worn in China?
Because they already have a totalitarian Marxist state that has complete control of all people.
And because the CCP is not interested in destroying their economy.
I’m glad you’re back. I was getting worried. I agree with you except when it comes to vaccinating the elderly. Technically I fall into that category and do not give informed consent to be guinea pig for a hugely profitable vaccine that was rushed to market. Who knows at this point what the effect will be of this mass human experiment?
Well, I just think it is the only way out of this current mess. I fully support anyone who doesn’t want a vaccine. This is an individual choice.
Is the covid vaccine as effective as we are told?
https://thehighwire.com/videos/how-effective-is-the-covid-19-vaccine/
Are vaccines a way out of this mess or a bigger mess?
https://thehighwire.com/videos/the-biggest-experiment-ever-done/
It’s only a choice if you are given informed consent. PLEASE watch the Highwire video on the efficacy of the vaccine vs placebo. You might want to add a chapter to “Doctoring Data.”
And of course the so-called “placebo” isn’t a placebo at all. It contains some of the most dangerous ingredients of the vaccine.
“Well, I just think it is the only way out of this current mess”.
But surely that is a political mess, not a medical one? That is to say, if everyone takes the vaccine the government will be able to declare victory and restore normality.
However I doubt if the vaccine will improve matters medically. As far as I can see young people do not suffer from Covid-19, so would not benefit from a vaccine (where “young” means more or less “under 65”). Old sick people are too weak to take the vaccine, as it might kill them. That doesn’t leave many people at all.
It sounds like a cure for which there is no (or hardly any) disease.
I’d be very wary of any vaccine after reading this https://www.wired.com/2003/05/feds-race-to-make-sars-vaccine/
Without at all trying to create fright, I’m utterly convinced that a large number of people are now quietly giving up and dying. Of loneliness, isolation, lack of contact and lack of care..oh, and not forgetting depression and economic ruination. Yes, The people are dying now.
I’ve not commented before on any of your posts but I have followed you avidly and read them all and want to thank you so very much for sharing your great wisdom. You have kept me sane and reinforced many of my own views when the majority of my friends have disagreed with me which has made me feel very isolated, not because of the Covid situation but because of our such differing views. I would never have thought I would be seen as a conspiracy theorist but I do now also firmly believe that there is something more sinister going on behind the scenes that makes it favourable to keep everyone scared.. I believe world vaccination is on the agenda which will of course make £ millions for Pharmaceutical companies, and the Govts will have the power over us that they want. I have done a lot of reading on the ‘Great Reset’ and for me it explains the reasons for a lot of the ridiculous measures being taken by the world Govts etc. Once again, many thanks for sharing your views and wisdom. You have many followers.
Thank you for your posts and comments, Dr Kendrick. May I wish you and yours a healthy and happy 2021. I look forward to further reason and sanity from you; both in short supply at the moment IMHO.
If you were low on petrol, would you not only make essential trips?
Might the plan be to power down the global economy and conserve what is left? Of course that only delays the inevitable – so might the plan also involving conditioning humans to accept very strict lockdowns? Better than an uncontrolled collapse involving epic violence…..
The Biggest Oil & Gas Discoveries Of 2019
But what’s most striking is that new discoveries aren’t even close to keeping pace with the loss of conventional resources.
According to Rystad, the current resource replacement ratio for conventional resources is only 16 percent. In other words, only one barrel out of every six consumed is being replaced with new resources.
So not only has our pace of discovery declined, but discoveries are also in much more challenging geological venues and typically offshore, which means it could take many years just to bring new resources online.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Biggest-Oil-Gas-Discoveries-Of-2019.html
This visual drives home the message – and note – even when oil was priced over $100 per barrel — very little new oil was being found:
And applying logic, if there was so much conventional oil left to discover/burn…. then why have we been steaming oil out of sand in Alberta, drilling miles beneath the sea for oil, and blasting rock and sucking up the dregs in shale?
And losing massive amounts of money in the process https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Has-Lost-300-Billion-In-15-Years.html
This smacks of total desperation — and with shale peaking in 2019 — as the saying goes ‘desperate times call for desperate measures’
https://www.ft.com/content/320d09cb-8f51-4103-87d7-0dd164e1fd25
Awesome info as ever, Sir Malcolm Kendrick. “ far too many powerful reputations at stake to allow that “. ….. and far too much money to be made for the 0.1%. Probably about the same % that will die from Covid. Run chicken licken, let Henny Penny know that the sky is falling in.
Spot on as usual. The government’s projections are just that and the number of cases is not that, but is the number of positive tests which is not the same. If you bother to look at the number of positives as a percentage of the total tests done(and bother to adjust so the date tested is used, not the date reported) you find that until yesterday it barely changed. That’s without worrying about the statistical effect of false positives, repeat tests being double counted, Lighthouse lab standards being rubbish. It’s a busy winter as usual. Heaven help us if we had gone through this in every winter crisis. That said, I don’t want this virus so will be heading off to get my vaccination as soon as it’s on offer
But Andrew, any of the vaccines being worked on did not have an endpoint of stopping infection. Just to lower “medium” symptoms.
Surely Vitamin D is a far cheaper and more effective method ?
Why would you take a vaccine that has never been tried before? This is a new type of vaccine, never widely used before now. Are you a guinea pig?
Earendil: None of the trials for the three vaccines being given (Pfizer, Moderna, and Astra-Zenca) have been completed. All are ongoing, with the general public being the phase III group. None have been trialled in the elderly or frail, who typically have a weak immune response to vaccines. Yet these are among the first targeted group according to the media. Guinea pigs we are. Madness.
The more you test the more false positives you will get. Then the MSM can take those numbers and create even scarier headlines. Governments can then use those scary headlines to get people to embrace strict lockdowns.
https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-coronavirus-the-evidence/
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality (locked down countries are in the top 20 – Sweden is NOT in the top 20)
So why lock down?
Keep in mind many countries locking are dictatorships – their leaders have no problem admitting they got it wrong – the first time.
There is nearly complete consensus on lock downs. There is overwhelming rejection of Great Barrington. Anyone who challenges the narrative is mocked or deleted.
How do you get nearly all leaders on board for economy destroying lockdowns?
What do they fear more than a destroyed economy? Could it be the lockdowns delay the destruction of the economy?
Rene Descartes was the a……e who claimed that animals don’t feel pain thus creating hell on earth for them so who gives a sh..t what he said about anything
I am glad you picked up on the important points of the post.
Don’t be so sarcastic Doctor
Some things i care deeply about you obviously don’t
Now i’m waiting for lots of nasty reactions from your groupies
I have no groupies, but if you wish to drag the discussion completely off line to support your own deeply held views, do not expect people to be entirely sympathetic.
I want to join this particular thread but give me a second whilst I make myself a bacon buttie.
Dr Kendrick, being sarcastic is not like you? Many other commentators have wandered off-point but you don’t slap their wrists. The infliction of suffering on animals is objectionable, I’m sure you think so too. (Please don’t slap me, I’m old, and lonely and scared!)
Jordan Peterson is a brilliant man. But he is deeply religious. Should I trash Jordan Peterson?
There are many similar examples.
FE I like your posts. However, as the number of replies is reaching a crescendo I am afraid I am restricting to two or three long ones a day, of five or six shorter ones. Just so that things do not get out of hand. So, could I ask you to reduce the output slightly. Thanks.
Mike, everyone is wrong about some things. Most of us are probably wrong about very important things. If you condemn everyone whom you believe to be wrong about something, there won’t be anyone left except those who never say anything at all.
And Descartes was not “the” man who thought that animals don’t feel pain. Until the 20th century, almost everyone thought that – except for farmers and people who actually lived with animals.
Two other very clever men had something to say on the subject.
“One has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe things like that: no ordinary man could be such a fool” – George Orwell.
“This is one of those views which are so absurd that only very learned men could possibly adopt them”. – Bertrand Russell.
I recall he claimed animals did not possess a Soul.
This is akin to seeing animals as ‘Skinner’s rats’
Which has become the basis for the systemic manipulation of human animals by f*cking with our minds as a way to f*ck with our biome. (Look up Carrie Madej for more on biological access to behavioural controls).
Descartes thought is part of the world we perceive – in fact the Cartesian split is in his name.
Regardless your feelings, history is active. You can cancel your version of your world to make a nicer corrected version, but you only put your demons out of view – not really out of mind, and this is why our whack-a-mole approach feeds the problem by driving it to ever more insidious forms of expression and limitation. Indeed as hell on Earth.
Your freedom to disregard Descartes is within your freedom to think as you are truly moved. That you were moved to react as you did indicates a sense of pain without a voice that is represented by much human blindness and indifference to animals.
My sense of Soul is that of extending recognition and meaning to a world of relation. You don’t have a Soul; you are Soul. The ‘materialist’ view is an object model. Within this framework Life is a cannibalistic murder or machine of death. I recommend not using that way of thinking as it opens a way to deeply hurt ourselves, while suffering it as the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune.
I agree about Descartes. He personally tortured dogs. If someone can be so wrong on a matter that a person of normal intuitive abilities can understand, it shows a serious flaw in his ability to philosophize about reality. Which, of course, does not mean he got everything wrong. But I do not respect him.
Oh but it’s ok to test a covid vaccine on animals before you get the jab right?
Well actually it seems we have skipped that phase so you should be more than happy to take on the role of the monkey. Walk the walk as they say.
So good of you to let Frankenstein experiment on you instead of a poor moneky 🙂
I know it’s not exactly the same … but do we need to split hairs?
FE,
I don’t understand what you’re trying to say. Did you think that because I think torturing animals is wrong that I am an animal rights activist?
What I am saying is that vaccines are tested on animals.
The reason we do that is because we don’t care if animals suffer and die after we inject them with experiments.
Better them that us right?
We torture animals all the time. Check out industrial farming….
Remember who make-up was once tested on animals. They pry open their eyelids and rub products on eyes to see how they reacted.
If you been vaccinated or you have ever eaten meat then you are complicit in the torture.
Does that nullify all of you other life accomplishments? Should you be pariah-fied?
Let’s bury the hypocrisy shall we.
Yes, and Thomas Jefferson, who memorably wrote, “…all men are created equal”, was also a slaveholder.
And Barack Obama, the first black US president, famously described his grandmother as “a typical white person.”
So, nobody’s perfect. Get over it.
Even better – guess who said these this:
“Any potential relief efforts sent to India would accomplish little to nothing, as Indians “bred like rabbits”.
I guessed Churchill and Google agreed.
I have a black friend who grew up in the civil rights era and served in Vietnam in the late 60’s. Wonderful guy, but it turns out he doesn’t care for Asians.
Lots of prejudice in the world, sometimes in the strangest places.
Descartes lived in the seventeenth century.
At that time, people killed each other for heresy, generally supported the death penalty applied in all sorts of nasty ways and believed all sorts of things that we now hold to be false. Nobody in Christendom was vegan either.
I like animals too but your logic would imply that we should not care about anything that anyone in the past wrote about anything. No one from the past would survive our moral test.
I am not a groupie, by the way. I just like history and prefer that we judge history by its standards, not ours.
It is true that the Euromomo statistics are the only credible resource in our daily bombardment by scaremongering vague numbers of uncertain meaning and validity.
This EU dataset is quite interesting as, apart from the data per country, it offers data per age group too. If you compare the graphs per age, you will see the impressive predominance of mortality among old-age population rather than among the younger ones.
An interesting observation in those visuals is that the vertical scale in the age graphs is not fixed but differs in each age group. As a result, they give the false impression that all ages over 40-50 have about the same spike of excess mortality during 2020. If however you use the same scale for all, then it becomes clear that Covid mortality is a direct function of age and it is not the same for all.
By presenting the danger as equal for all ages, perhaps you have an excuse to confine everybody in the pen, young and old, and not only those in real danger. I wonder if that distortion of the graph scale is accidental, or in order to emphasize the danger. This observation is related to the fact that you cannot find statistics on the age distribution as easily and extensively as on other data types.
I am not sure. If you look at the scale, it is very obvious that deaths are almost entirely in the elderly.
The 3 age groups 45-64, 65-74, 75-84 seem to have about the same spike in 2020 in Euromomo graphs.
However, the 3 spikes refer to totally different numbers of victims, as the graph vertical scales differ substantially, with 9,000, 14,000, 25,000 maximum values respectively.
Dr. Kendrick, would you comment on what the numbers mean that are published by PHE at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/notifiable-diseases-weekly-reports-for-2020 in England and Wales???
Covid-19 was only added in week 11. Total for Covid-19 to end of December 2020 was 13901. Are these deaths of Covid-19 or registered cases?
How should these government figures be interpreted in view of what MSM is reporting?
Yes. It seemed to me early on that although this sars-2 was deadly for some, for most, it was not, and it was following the path of other respiratory viruses. I told people – who did not believe me. I said to make sure D3/K2/Mg was OK as doing that myself has correlated with zero bad colds for several years. I was dismayed when I saw on the news that police were telling people sun bathing over the summer to move on. I gave up after a while. Some of my medic friends would have disowned me, and they are dear to me. I just keep quiet lest the thought police come to my door. The vaccines seem OK and hopefully will allow the panic to subside and give governments and some experts a chance to drop the position they have felt unable to retract. There will be a history written at some point but most will think the vaccine saved us.
Many thanks for the voice of sanity, but my email ended at the Euromomo quote “ at detecting a “
Wouldn’t like to have anything stand in the way of attracting more converts to the cause, for instance: ‘ F.F.S Look at the numbers before you believe anything they tell you’.
Best Wishes,
Malcolm Hunt ‘
>
Dr McKendrick,
I simply want to say ‘thank you’. Thank you so much for interrupting the Downing Street briefing which is broadcasting at the moment which I gladly chose to put on silent whilst I read your latest post. Your statement ‘…..the world has simply gone bonkers’ was enough to make me smile and continue reading to the end!
So grateful for your continuing efforts to try and get the true perspective out there. It’s a tragedy it’s falling on deaf ears (with regard to those in control) but I am sure you must have an army of fans/followers who think you are just brilliant and we just wish you could be given a vocal platform to at least be able to offer your thoughts to the public too.
Thank you Claire
PS. I had the pleasure of hearing you speak at a seminar in Birmingham once. Around 2013. Zoe Harcombe hosted it. I bought your book The Great Cholesterol Con as a result and think it’s time you rushed into print The Great Covid Mishandling Con too 😊
> > >
From European data it looks like COVID19 follows the usual seasonal influenza pattern –worse in winter, better in summer. But here in South Africa, where influenza is virtually unknown from November to April, we are currently experiencing a second wave of COVID19 that has a death rate as bad as the first wave, and is still climbing.
Clearly some of it is the virus breaking out in new, previously-untouched areas, and some due to deaths with, not of, the virus. Is there really a second wave? There is a huge increase in positive test results, but as we know they are not to be trusted. And now they say we have a super-infective virus mutation. Frankly, I don’t know the real story of what’s going on.
In addition to my earlier observation on the variable scale in Euromomo age-related graphs, I have one more, related to geography. It was posted in my blog under the title “The Line of Death in the Balkans” three weeks ago [https://tatatnsosos.blogspot.com/2020/12/the-line-of-death-in-balkans.html], from where I copy:
“Recently there is a rapid surge of Covid-19 cases in Greece, especially in the north part of the country. At the same time there is a dramatic rise in the pandemic victims in Northern Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Both countries have reached Italy and Spain in the number of deaths per 1m of population, with Montenegro following suit. The impressive increases in those countries are not seen in the neighbouring Albania or Bulgaria.
An interesting observation is shown on the map: If you connect Sarajevo and Thessaloniki, the line passes through the heavily afflicted countries and only them. It looks like a plane had been flying along that line spreading death.”
At that time, Slovenia’s ranking was rather low, but very rapidly bypassed all the other ex-Yugoslavia countries and now stands at the 3rd place in the world in terms of deaths per capita.
Interestingly, the “Line of Death” connecting Sarajevo and Thessaloniki passes also from Ljubljana if extended to the north.
The definition of Health comes to mind. It is the physical psychological and social well being not just the absence of illness.
Thankyou Malcolm and a happy New year
Neil
Thanks Malcolm for your insightful and uplifting covid coverage this year.
btw, WHO is just now discovering that ivermectin is increasing covid survival rate by 83%:
Finally, I was wading through the reponses looking for one in which ivermectin would be mentioned!
And there is https://www.c19ivermectin.com and if you want to hear Dr. Pierre Kory’s take on it, here he is in the US senate:
And here on a zoom meeting with Dutch ‘virus truthers’: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0mvhGaHuCs&t=70s
Or Dr. Andrew Hill with a 11 study meta-analysis of trials in over 1400 covid patients.
Ivermectin really is the wonder drug that can completely blow covid-19 out of the water.
It’s both a pre- and post exposure profylactic, as well as a early, medium and late cure, or ‘primary component’ in a combination therapy.
Kory: “If you take a monthly dose of Ivermectin, you won’t get covid.”
Oops, Dr. Andrew Hill, that was your link. 🙂
I wonder if Twitter and faceBook are going through their immense backlog of censored posts in order to publish (belatedly) those they deleted for disagreeing with WHO’s position that week.
That should keep them busy.
Very good post, again.
I have one question. Obviously, feel free not to answer it. Or simply to say you do not know.
But, flu seems to have disappeared this year. Do we know why?
I have read in various places that every year we see different dominant strains of respiratory illness in the winter. So, I guess it could be that Covid somehow replaced flu this year. Or, I guess, that our awesome lock downs have eradicated flu. Am sure that the Lockdown banner supporters will argue the latter.
It does seem to be a conundrum though.
I wonder whether anyone has the figures on dying of sepsis this year.
If the sepsis was targeted for 7 or 8 years and the figures went up. What happened this year?
As I understand it:
The figures for flu and CoViD19 are being combined, from a diagnostic point of view what are the differences in terms of signs and symptoms?
Secondly, if a person tests positive, irrespective of whether their illness is caused by the influenza virus or the SARS-CoV-2 virus it will be a CoViD19 case.
Thirdly, if a person tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 it is reported to PHE directly circumventing the NOID reporting pathway.
Could it be (at least in the USA) that hospitals get paid to list Covid as a cause of death – but dont get paid to list flu?
Thanks for the sanity, doctor. Feeling much better now.
Why has the US not shown a seasonality? There actually was a spike in all cause mortality in July?
Anyone know of a sane GP in Powys, N Hfds or S Shrops, i.e. interested in prevention via healthy diet, exercise, vit D autumn to spring? I’m in fairly good health (age >65) and just want to keep it that way. I read that catchment areas are being expanded, which might allow more choice in a rural area with many practices 10-20 km apart.
Consulting a medical herbalist would be a good option. You can find one by searching the National Institute of Medical Herbalists ‘Find a Herbalist’ page.
Dr Deborah Myhill (private GP nowadays) near Knighton offers more holistic treatment which might be what you are looking for
Thank you. A great post as usual. I have been looking at the Office of National Statistics figures of total deaths for the last 6 years and comparing the figures for this year with the average of the previous 5 years and have come to the same conclusion as you have. Total deaths really is the only real figure we can rely on.
They started a stampede and now….they don’t know how to stop it! Good to listen to a your logic, think you need to talk to the “ones in charge” maybe we would get back to normal life then
While I do believe excess deaths is a very useful measure, does anyone know if these days were adjusted for the effects of lockdown, such as greatly reduced traffic deaths and homicides and increased suicides and ODs. Seems these would confound comparisons to years where no sick lockdown occurred…
Thank you Dr K. Take care. Let’s rise up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDfAdHBtK_Q&fbclid=IwAR3dcyC8XX0Nw1jDcr6Ywm_DkE7N6pQhYKu3C8OJavyWqB6McB0llRDSc-A
ke 30.12.2020 klo 16.36 Dr. Malcolm Kendrick kirjoitti:
> Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: ” 30th December 2020 I have not written much > about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has > simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, > written many hundreds of years ago. In it, Dante describe” >
Finland are very heavy on vitamin-D fortification. They have very little deficiency, kind of like Japan. Fish eating Norway are probably also up there.
this is so sad to read. I have read you for years and I’ve respected you but you have now officially become part of the problem. Compare what happened in the Scandinavian countries. Now give a thorough look at New Zealand. Yes, there is a lot that we do know About what to do, what not do, what works, what does not. This post is a feeble attempt to justify how wrong you were about so many COVID things. I guess it would take too much guts and honor to admit your errors . You’ve been right about so many things in the past, but on this issue you’ve been mostly wrong.
Scott Sedam via mobile 248.390.0773 scott@truen.com ________________________________
scotttruencom, if you look at the data from any country, and try to say at what point they implemented any of the silly lockdown, mask, distance mandates, you can’t tell where it was done.
Sweden – no lockdowns no masks – if that country was a band they’d be broke cuz they can’t crack the top twenty in deaths per capita https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Thank you for once again providing the antidote to massive scaremongering enough to daunt all but the strongest minds.
Re the apparent South African anomaly of a summer surge: can this not be explained like much else as an artefact of statistics collection? During the first surge South Africa was not doing anywhere near as much testing. Now it is doing exponentially more testing with in consequence exponentially increased false positives and misdiagnosis. Anyone want to prove otherwise let them produce the mortality statistics as you have done for other countries.
The really scary thing is that as long as we make everything hinge on the flawed PCR test even the vaccines will not get the numbers down much. Even as the vaccines appear to work (with luck) at the level of individuals the number of false positives will hardly flicker on the gauge. Summer may come to the rescue until we start the whole pantomime over again next Autumn. Could this be why the government appear to be shuffling sideways towards reliance on the lateral flow test, which delivers only a fraction of the false positives generated by the PCR and consequently far lower incidence? The government’s dogged support for both types of test, producing as they do radically different pictures, would be comical if the matter were not so serious.
Peter, I strongly suspect ‘governments’ are trying to move to lateral flow for the best two reasons ever…. Numbers produced will suit THEIR political purposes, and, way say cheaper to buy AND operate.. But wait! – There’s more ! – by doing so they’ll score a march on the Great Unwashed, who are becoming educated to PCR’s flaws, and again, by moving over… will appear to gain credibility and ‘Leadership.’
As many readers have already said – Thank you Dr Kendrick for pointing me to EuroMOMO in the first instance and the invaluable insights you have provided over the last few months.
The only thing that is important (as Malcolm has pointed out many times, is mortality). In South Africa deaths appear to be spiking now but can we really be confident of the classification of deaths in South Africa or the timing of reporting?
pandata.org have this to say:
“South Africa experienced two waves. A COVID-19 wave which passed through South Africa with delays between provinces possibly exceeding six weeks. This wave, and the pace of the wave is clear by looking at the hospital surveillance data across provinces, looking at case positivity rates across provinces (and positive numbers themselves) and most importantly looking at reported deaths across provinces.
The second wave of deaths had nothing directly to do with COVID-19, and was rather a wave set in motion by the hardest lockdown months in April and May 2020. This wave hit the country and its people in a more uniform manner, given the uniform timing of the lockdown, thereby resulting in excess deaths happening across the country in a consistent pattern measured by time.
Lockdown disrupted the actual reporting of deaths. While there is a requirement to report deaths to Home Affairs or to Law Enforcement, these avenues were closed to most by the requirements of Lockdown. Although it is claimed that deaths are recorded by date of occurrence rather than date of reporting, it is reasonable to speculate that accuracy has been found wanting.
A better explanation for the two waves that are reflected in the excess death numbers is that the first wave represents COVID-19 deaths and the second wave represents lockdown deaths. One wave was unavoidable. The second is completely self-inflicted.”
It is even more tragic in South Africa that lockdown related mortality will bear so much more heavily on the impoverished and those without jobs – things were bad enough before CoV-2
“If you asked me to bet, I would say it was created in a lab, then escaped by accident.”
Well Doc – I’m not too sure about the escaping by accident – It’s a very ‘Strange Coincidence’ indeed that the 7th Military World Games took place in who nows where in mid/end of October 2019 just before the virus outbreak.
Well slap-a my thigh it was in a region in China, in a city not previously too well known for much, called-now where was it ~ ah that’s it ~ Wuhan!!!
Three separate places in the city where it is said to have spontaneously erupted is more than likely to have been a deliberate act.
Which Military Power probably unleashed it upon an unsuspecting world is one for the conspiracy theorists.
Heck it could even have been a double act by Vlad & Don!!
“Which Military Power probably unleashed it upon an unsuspecting world is one for the conspiracy theorists”.
No. If (and it’s a big “if”) any government released the virus, the matter is a question for political and military analysts.
There’s no doubt at all that such a thing is perfectly feasible. (Anyone read Tom Clancy’s “Rainbow Six”?)
Then the questions that arise are: who would would release the virus? How would they hope to gain? And so on.
One valid objection usually raised is that a virus is too unselective. It spreads everywhere and hits everyone. Another objection is that Covid-19 has not been deadly enough for a biological weapon.
Well, governments are devious and they lie a lot. Remember “Novichok”, the world’s deadliest nerve poison which, however, somehow fails to kill most of its victims? Maybe anyone planning to use a viral weapon would want to fire a few trial shots first, to see how it spreads and what the reaction is.
Hmmmm….
FT.com “The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression.
Google Luc Montagnier a virologist who won the Nobel prize for discovering the HIV – Aids link.
Ignore the ‘conspiracy theory stuff’ and find where he insists Covid could not possibly occur without the hand of man.
Even Maradona could not have pulled this off
Lies, damn lies and statistics and then more lies. The government and their scientific advisors have made a decision to scare the living daylights out of everyone, however it didn’t work on everybody. I guess most people reading this report are at least sceptical to the Whitty Vallance horror show. Keep pushing the sense, the message, the truth that this pandemic came, it tried to come again, but bumped into a bit of herd immunity, it will come one more time and will be even less effective. The truth is we have caused untold damage to mental health, the economy, education and general health care. Our generation will be held accountable and the soft compliant population won’t like it when the pidgeons come home with their wealth tax, their child’s future ruined and angry homeless people at their doors. Happy new year.
At last the vaccines are being rolled out around the world. Ive had the Pfizer vaccine.. 2nd shot on 16th Jan. Soo pleased. Side effects were a slight sore arm that night if I rolled onto it. Since then feeling fine. We might get back to normality later this year with luck.
They stopped the animal experiments with a similar technology vaccine because, when the vaccinated animals were challenged with the virus, they were much more likely to die from organ failure. Whoops.
Are you just trying to scare him or can you back that up?
As you may well imagine, this is not a topic that has been given wide or emphatic publication. Because it is so embarrassing to the vaccine advocates, social media can be expected to do their level best to conceal it. This is about the best starting point I have been able to find so far:
“Pfizer COVID vaccine trial shows alarming evidence of pathogenic priming in older adults.
Some of the world’s top vaccine-promoters are warning about unique and frightening dangers inherent in developing a coronavirus vaccine”.
https://www.lifesitenews.com/opinion/pfizer-covid-vaccine-trial-shows-alarming-evidence-of-pathogenic-priming-in-older-adults
Robert Kennedy, Jr. gives an accessible explanation here:
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/the-truth-about-vaccines-2020-vaccine-roundtable-part-2-video-and-transcript/
And before anyone brings it up, the presence of Dr Andrew Wakefield as a panel member has no bearing on what Mr Kennedy says.
I could, but you can look it up. It would be a good mental exercise for these restricted times.
AhNotepad: Yes, indeed. Two of our top vaccine promoters and developers, Dr. Paul Offit and Dr. Peter Hotez gave public warnings in interviews last spring about the possibility of immune-enhancement from mRNA vaccines. They remembered previous efforts which ended in failure based upon the initial animal safety studies. With these vaccines they skipped the animal safety studies altogether! Now both of these gentlemen are completely on board with both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Somebody got to them. But they were right. Covid is a disease of poor metabolic health. And there are at least three effective treatments: 1. HCQ+zinc+antibiotic (the Zelenko protocol); 2. ivermectin (an old repurposed drug); and 3. budenoside (an asthma drug) delivered through a nebulizer. There is no need whatsoever for a vaccine, and as far as I know, none of the trials have been published. This is a very dangerous development, the promotion by governments of these vaccines.
Here we are Eric, and all the other doubters, in case you didn’t bother to look I found this in less than 20 seconds. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0035421
Get your vaccine and you recieve a free histopathlogy if challenged.
“These SARS-CoV vaccines all induced antibody and protection against infection with SARS-CoV. However, challenge of mice given any of the vaccines led to occurrence of Th2-type immunopathology suggesting hypersensitivity to SARS-CoV components was induced. Caution in proceeding to application of a SARS-CoV vaccine in humans is indicated.”
Just as well you’re not a mouse.
I remember that paper, too, Ah. Unfortunately I can’t find a reference to it right now – a search for likely terms just produces an immense pile of references to the current vaccine trials.
Not being able to trust Google causes considerable mental heartburn. Come back Altavista!
I suspect Dr Kendrick is familiar with the report. The experimenters were extremely pleased with the preliminary results, as all the animals showed strong antibody responses.
Unfortunately, when exposed to the actual pathogen, they all died quite suddenly.
That’s what can happen when you mess around with unbelievably complex biochemical systems that you hardly understand.
Try using the date filter on google – in particular your end date should be pre Covid. That will filter out the propaganda.
Fergus, I’m happy for you that you are happy and at present, seemingly safe. Please don’t be disappointed if / when you are diagnosed with covid, that vaccine is only successful in ameliorating symptoms, not in preventing you from becoming infected & unwell.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😂😂😂😂🤣😂😂😂
The purpose of the restriction of “normality” is to prevent asymptomatic transmission.
Covid vaccines are not known to prevent asymptomatic transmission.
Please explain how use of vaccines can justify the removal of such restrictions.
Mr Fisher, asymptomatic transmission is covered in a Chinese study of 9,899,828 people. They apparently did not find one instance.
You are right Mr. Fisher. Lockdown forever is the only answer.
I hate to rain on you parade…but…. Fauci is quoted in here as are many other scientists who insist the fastest they could ever come up with a vaccine is 3 years. And even that is a huge long shot.
It’s not for want of money.
Don’t worry too much – you’ve probably just been injected with the standard flu vaccine. I am sure it’s relatively harmless.
https://www.wired.com/2003/05/feds-race-to-make-sars-vaccine/
The ‘virus’ is the government the carrier’s the media.
Thank you so much Dr K for a balanced level headed article. Ive sent it to my MP with my latest letter. I’m giving him my attention on a weekly basis at the moment and he does seem to be taking a bit more of a proactive approach at last. Draconian tier systems are killing businesses, causing serious mental health issues, even suicides sadly. Families are parted for months. Older people live in fear like my 89 year old Mum who had zero Xmas and how many does she have left?
Ive forwarded your article many times. To believers and sleepers. Personally I think there IS a deeper agenda but I like that you can put forward a well reasoned response without it! Thank you!
Seems one needs to be an economist with 70+ years of experience to know what to say. Listen to the end then decide?
Coherent but concerning view from economisthttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1-0XKYAZII
Almost everything Catherine Austin Fitts says makes sense of a kind. But… the part that overlaps my area of expertise fails the test utterly.
Namely: injecting nanoparticles into our bodies that will communicate with the Cloud.
That is utter nonsense. A nanoparticle is defined as something well under 1 micron in any dimension – one thousandth of a millimetre.
“The Smallest Computer in the World Fits On a Grain of Rice”
https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/a22007431/smallest-computer-world-smaller-than-grain-rice/
Maybe someone can go a bit further. As the article goes on to report, IBM has made a computer that’s about 1 millimetre cubed in size. (One billion times larger in volume than a nanoparticle). But… it loses all its programs and data when powered down. And it certainly couldn’t begin to perform any of the operations necessary to affect physiology or body chemistry, far less modify thinking or emotions. Not to mention the equipment necessary to communicate by radio with the Internet (from inside a human body). And how would it be powered? Mitochondria consume glucose, proteins and fats to power the body’s cells. How would you make a tiny computer emulate that feat?
Yet another example of what Michael Crichton dubbed the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect:
“You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them. In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know”.
– Michael Crichton, “Why Speculate?”
Smartdust might provide the answer you’re looking for: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/09/16/smart-dust-is-coming-are-you-ready/
Thanks for the pointer, Roan. I read it with some scepticism, having some experience myself of the field of high-tech “evangelism”. The author is credited as (inter alia) a “popular keynote speaker [and] futurist”; no mention of his having any actual experience of building such devices.
The size which he gives for a “smart dust” device is about that of a grain of salt – coincidentally, exactly the size of the IBM device in the “Popular Mechanics” article I cited. A billion times bigger than the biggest nanoparticle.
I cannot believe that anything that size could either contain a self-contained power supply or transmit and receive through human tissue, walls, etc. to the Internet. (Unless it were using cold fusion or something yielding similar power density).
Nor would I want anything artificial the size of a grain of salt implanted in my body – either coursing through my blood stream or embedded in a bone or muscle. It certainly wouldn’t fit through a hypodermic needle, anyway.
Unless what’s injected as a “vaccine” is an intelligent, self-organizing swarm of true nanoparticles, which assembles itself into a networked computer only after being injected.
In which case I give up. “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”.
It would fit through a needle. I remember the size of the needles to implant caponising pellets.
Hmmmm, Ah…. “Caponising pellets”, eh? What a marvellous analogy for the current vaccination frenzy.
Although one might feel that the population has already been mentally and emotionally caponised.
If anything can change this, I feel it will be politics. There is one only one political party that can change this – The BREXIT party, soon to be called Reform UK.
They sent the following magnificent letter to Matt Hancock:
https://www.thebrexitparty.org/letter-to-secretary-of-state-for-health/
This must have been written by someone deeply in the know, because it points a whole series of sharp sticks at the PCR tests, and the ‘contribution’ these may be having to the panic in the country.
Whatever you think about Brexit, hardly matters, since this outlandish destructive nonsense dwarfs any other action short of war itself. Nigel Farage scared the Tories into voting to permit the referendum, and perhaps he can work his magic again.
Meanwhile, I will try to attend the next anti-lockdown protest in Manchester at 1.00 in Piccadilly. It is about the most constructive thing I can think of.
Superb – as are many of the comments. Thank you Dr Kendrick – voice of sanity in this wilderness, this lack of moral rectitude – may its feral inhabitants fall silent. To you : Stay well, stay safe – slàinte mhath (slangevar) to 2021
A fair bit of conspiracy crap in the comments. Being one who is extremely vulnerable and old I understand the issue of health or economics and that the hospitals have been starved of good management ,beds and nurses . That nurses are falling sick with stress now as overworked and many leaving or thinking about leaving the job. Even so do we want bodies in the streets because there are not enough beds or staff? Lockdown is necessary to enable the NHS to cope if for nothing else.
Steve cook, the alternative could be “a fair bit of lockdown crap in the comments”. Why do you think it is helpful to a discussion to say those who think differently from you are posting “crap”? Is your case weak? As for hospitals being overwhelmed, have you been inside one lately, because Gloucester isn’t https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=%23ycampaign&prefetchtimestamp=1609404910407
This Twitter thread is over a month out of date. The situation at Gloucester is now very serious. So yes, there is a fair bit of lockdown crap here.
The question to ask though is whether lock downs and so forth are helping.
The data does not suggest that they do. As the original post says.
Hospitals may be overwhelmed. But that does not mean that the interventions make sense.
I am getting tired of the selfishness of pro-lockdown people who expect that it is perfectly alright to demand that the young of a society sacrifice themselves for a bunch of 70 and 80 year olds.
Can’t the pro-lockdown people comprehend that poverty and despair kill and that many, or most, of the fatalities will be elderly?? The looming depression could make the Great Depression seem like a picnic.
Join David Icke and be happy
Feel free to lock yourself down indefinitely then.
But do NOT impose your lockdowns on me.
And BTW – lockdowns do nothing but smash us out of jobs https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-coronavirus-the-evidence/
As a fully qualified armchair warrior with no relative qualification I would hesitate to point out that excess deaths is 71000 up to 15 December and with numbers climbing rapidly in the past 2 weeks I expect this to climb as well to nearer 80000. Does this qualify as over-running the NHS when you consider there is not much normal bed occupancy occurring ?
Thank you Dr Kendrick, and thanks to ahnotepad too, for a very welcome chuckle.
I’m very tired.of the human stupidity and of the human dependency on money.
But I can only praise your texts,on any matter and, in the case, about the «pest».
Your «What is left to say?» is full of wisdom. Full of real notions, since your grandma. God bless you, believer or not.
oliveira
Thank you for being a voice of sanity in these mad times. As a child every common cold made me seriously ill. My parents did their best to protect me. We did not expect or desire the country to be shut down. What has happened to common sense and civil liberties? Almost everything that makes life worth living has been taken away in the name of “protecting us”.
I always enjoy it when a well informed, intelligent, reflective professional – i.e. you, doc – finds himself in perfect agreement with me. It implies you’re on to something.
The most striking thing is indeed how little we know securely. Our best guide is indeed the figure for total deaths.
By the by, who can resist “Mortality is a basic indicator of health.” Snort.
This is the most sensible and honest piece of writing I’ve seen in a while. Thank you.
Thank you, Dr. Kendrick. The graphs tell the story. One great tragedy is that so many of the deaths, at least in New York and the UK, and likely other places in Europe, resulted from neglect and abuse in for-profit nursing homes, combined with the end of any semblance of oversight and the political decision to shove hospital patients into them. I crunched the numbers for the period up to August for Sweden, the UK, and the U.S. The mortality rate per hundred thousand divided by the number of nursing home beds per hundred thousand, then multiplied by one hundred to move the decimal point two places to the left, to arrive at a ratio. Sweden: 4.15. The UK: 7.79. The U.S.: 7.57. Mass murder it was.
Normally, as GPs we worry about how ill a virus makes the patient, not what it is called, and we ride the storm. We tell people with suspected flu to stay at home to avoid infecting others, and deal with the ones that get ill, as best we can. The last 10 months has reduced our face to face consultations by about 2/3, and, while I don’t miss the pointless cholesterol and mild hypertension consultations, I worry about all the missed cancers.
Absolutely refreshing. Thank you for your article.
Enjoyed your writing. Happy New Year.
Linda
Thank you, Malcolm. A voice of reason in a gale of foolishness. On Wed, 30 Dec 2020 at 15:38, Dr. Malcolm Kendrick wrote:
> Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: ” 30th December 2020 I have not written much > about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has > simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, > written many hundreds of years ago. In it, Dante describe” >
Once again the voice of sanity in an insane world. It seems that whatever people have been told by their government, most people believe it rigidly because they have been frightened by the information they are being fed. It is blindingly obvious that the Lockdowns and mask wearing haven’t worked. If they had, we would all be getting on with our lives as normal. Simple fact, yet everyone seems to have missed it. I live on the Isle of Man, where there is no covid at all in the community. We are in a giant bubble, 33 miles long, 13 miles wide. No restrictions, except we are imprisoned by our borders. Yet the other day I saw a young man in running gear apparently in training, and wearing a mask. What possible reason could he have for wearing one? Where could he possibly pick up covid in a covid free island? People are being literally frightened to death by Those in Charge who are, are you so rightly say Dr K making an absolute pig’s ear of it all. How can they sleep at night?
“How can they sleep at night?” You ask…. so I’ll let you into a little secret …. it is simply a thing called “The Noble Lie”; “They”, the controllers of this place believe what they are doing is for “the greater good”.
Now, what ‘ends’ they might define as “good” and to whom they see as those who should benefit from those ‘ends’, or whom they mean by “greater”, may not be who or what you or I would want to see benefit. In fact it may be to our cost or detriment.
I can empathise if you can not believe this to be true; the majority of the public cannot believe it either, simply because this is not something they would ever do themselves and thus cannot believe it of others, especially those in positions of authority or government who they have been conditioned to trust and who’s motives they dare not deign to question.
Perhaps a worthwhile place to begin to understand the Noble Lie is here https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YbCKLr_vHhY&feature=youtu.be
Well said again. Thank you for your thoughts on COVID-19. Such commonsense, just wish our governments thought the same. So many now talk about the new “normal” scary thought. They also believe what the main stream media says as gospel and health professionals i.e. wearing masks will protect you, etc, etc.
Aye Aye Sir, well said, and thank you for the good laugh!
Riveting that tests over-estimate cases, there are no excess deaths, countermeasures are ineffective and most deaths are not actually due to COVID.
However, here Los Angeles County deaths are exploding and some have waited 18 hours to even get out of the ambulance at the ER ‘cos there are no ICU beds left.
My question is: do you actually have any advice for folk who want to survive this thing? Seriously, what should we be doing?
Jonathan, to survive, try to do all the things most normal people do, have loads of vitamin C and D and zinc and K2. In practice you will have to work a lot harder to die from it than you would to survive it.
Get out and enjoy fresh air and plenty of exercise. Go home, have a good solid nourishing meal, take your supplements, have a drink if you like, and then get a good night’s sleep. Avoid stress that upsets you, but try to get the amount of stress that keeps you happy and healthy.
Another supplement reportedly to be very beneficial, both as a preventative and treatment, is quercetin. Take 1000 mg a day as a preventative, and if you get the virus, then double that to 2000 mg twice a day. Or even greater, if necessary.
What is left to say? Maybe just to remind people that some of the main sponsors of the (relatively few) large global media (ie ‘bad news sells’) companies are the (relatively few) large pharmaceutical (ie ‘vaccine’ fast-tracker) companies. I’m not saying it’s a conspiracy or anything, but maybe these companies saw the media reporting on ‘drug cartels’ and thought “… now there’s an idea!”
Truly one of the precious few voices of reason. I have just one question if someone can answer. Just musing why set the ‘Z’ threshold at 5 ? My rusty statistics would set it well below that for statistical significance (closer to 2 st. Dev from the mean). If threshold is at 2 , might it show a different picture in comparing countries ?
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-weltweit-infizierte-tote-tests-alle-live-daten-a-7365ef99-2aa6-4ee1-b429-14c4edf3b0b2
Second last graph Übersterblichkeit = excess mortality for some European and international countries. I don’t like their new data rendering in various shades of pinkish brown instead of a proper graph, but it paints a similar picture to what Malcolm is saying. The UK is not experiencing much of a second peak in deaths when you look at the color scale. You can hover over each field and get the numbers, +20% for the first week of November. Is that a lot? Sounds to me but maybe not.
Worst hit is Belgium with +79% for the last week of October (Slovenia is not part of this graph). It is also an outlier in that it breaks the pattern of countries that have had a bad first peak not experiencing so many deaths in fall / winter.
If you look at the colors for Germany, you really wonder what all that clamoring we are subjected to is about. The worst peak was mid-August at +21%, and that was attributed to a heat wave. So how does this squre with the 300 daily deaths we had in late November that prompted the hard lockdown? Well, +14% for the last week of November the last week of data availale. We are currently at 650, so that might translate into +35% overall mortality. At the same time, nearly 6000 people are in intensive care for Covid, and many hospitals have reached capacity. So the clamoring seem justified, at least until you start looking elsewhere or into previous years. Not sure what to think yet, but thank you Malcolm for pointing this out.
https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-12/statistisches-bundesamt-sterbefallzahlen-november-2020-anstieg
There are two proper graphs, mortality for all of Germany and for Saxony only. Saxony is currently seen as the problem child. They had not much of a first wave, they were touted as careless throughout the summer and into fall (I travelled there in July, and found compliance with mask rules to be markedly poorer than elsewhere), they have a particularly strong AfD party (our equivalent of UKIP or whatever they are called now) and had plenty of protests against restrictions, made up from a strong local contingent but also from activists who travelled there to protest.
The jury is still out whether they are having a very strong second wave because they missed out, because of behavior or both.
Translation by Deepl:
Significantly more deaths in November than in previous years
In November 2020, 8,186 more people died than on average in the years 2016 to 2019. Excess mortality was particularly high in Saxony.
30 December 2020, 17:09Source: ZEIT ONLINE, dpa, khe47 comments.
Listen to article
Federal Statistical Office: an empty hospital bed stands in a treatment room at a hospital.
An empty hospital bed stands in a treatment room in a hospital. © Jens Büttner/dpa
According to preliminary findings of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the number of deaths in Germany increased significantly in November 2020. According to the report, 8,186 people died, 11 per cent more than the November average from 2016 to 2019. The total number of deaths was at least 84,480 people. The last time there were more than 80,000 deaths in a November was in 1974 – when 81,006 deaths were recorded.
The number of deaths related to the coronavirus was thus 7,335. For the last week of November, the 48th calendar week, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported a total of 2,579 deaths related to Covid-19 – 639 more than in the previous week.
The statisticians registered a significant increase in deaths, especially among those over 80 years of age. There were 8,192 more cases, or 19 per cent, than the average from 2016 to 2019. “In contrast, deaths among those under 80 years of age are at the same level as in previous years,” they said.
“In addition to the direct and indirect consequences of the Covid 19 pandemic, shifts in the age structure of the population may also contribute to above-average case fatality rates,” the experts informed. For example, they said, the number of people aged 80 and over had risen from 4.7 million to 5.7 million between 2015 and 2019.
According to the statisticians, excess mortality was particularly high in Saxony. In the state, which has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, 39 per cent more people died compared to November in previous years.
Both nationwide and in Saxony, the difference increased week by week. In the last week of November, it was 55 percent higher in Saxony than the previous year’s average. Nationwide, it was 14 per cent. At the same time, the number of people who died from or with Corona also increased from week to week in November.
Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Note that Saxony was 39% higher for all of November when deaths really only took off in the last week of November and into December, so December data will look even worse. Even if Saxony is a bit of an outlier because of its very mild first wave, I suppose it is a reminder to politicians what will happen if they let things run their course. This does not necessarily apply to other countries that had more infections earlier. Belgium and to some degree Spain seem to show though that previous hard times do not count that much.
Hi thanks as usual for clarity and outside- of-the box thinking. I think you are right about so many things, sadly enough. The most salient points that stick out for me is that, while Covid-19 is worse than the typical flu, it is probably no worse than the extremely bad flus of ’57 and ’67. They were very bad, but at the time (at least in France) they went practically unnoticed by the medias and the politicians. And have been almost completely forgotten. There were other, more concerning things going on at the time, for one, and second, bad flus were considered normal and expected. Today, this would have been politically unacceptable, but times have changed. Different from the COVID-19, they did burn out quickly. The second, depressing point, is that nothing has really worked in terms of mitigation. This virus has done what this viruses do very well, and that is spreading until stopped by a vaccine or the formidable human immune system. All the face-saving mitigation efforts by the governments of the world have been (almost) for naught, and we have destroyed the economy for nothing. Or so it seems.
I do note that in the US the excess mortality does show a very big, long bump (+10%-20% more deaths than expected) over all of 2020, available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm That does seem like a lot, and the hospitals are overwhelmed. Maybe Americans are in particularly bad health, or maybe this is just a repeat of 1957 and 1967 and will be soon forgotten.
“Truly, the Gods have descended to live amongst us. Those who can determine what is true, and what is not. ”
That jumped out for me.
The wonderful interpretation of creation that those in power,(and they were always in conflict), were just as capricious and ignorant as those below the cloud.
Thanks, Dr K. insightful as usual. We need an election to get rid of the idiot politicians that keep dragging us down, but I fear that their followers vastly outnumber those of us who’d rather think for ourselves. With elections in May, the PR machines will whir into action and claim that the natural reduction in cases is due to their wonderful management and thus prove they were right instead of simply coincidental timing. It makes me want to weep.
Been following your blog for quite awhile Dr Kendrick and you are so the voice of sanity.
I am just rereading your book “Doctoring Data” and have a question – nothing to do with covid.
Have you ever done any work on Bisphosphonates to treat osteoporosis? The side effects are horrific and may make fractures more likely. Do you think that data was doctored here?
Yup
Noted for future reference – thank you
Results of a random search on bisphosphonates threw up this – (issue is of interest). http://www.versusarthritis.org/about-arthritis/treatments/drugs/bisphosphonates/https://www.versusarthritis.org/about-arthritis/treatments/drugs/bisphosphonates/
Bisphosphonates are generally well tolerated. The risk of digestive problems with oral preparations is very much reduced if you carefully follow the instructions that come with your medicine. Less common side-effects include: itchy rashes or photosensitivity (rash on exposure to sunlight)
Malcolm,
I think we all depend on you in this incredibly bleak time. You are a rock of common sense, and I was starting to worry that your absence for a few days (not even moderating our posts) meant that you had finally been nobbled one way or another – I am really glad to know that you are still with us into 2021.
Thank you. Reached a state of ennui for a bit.
You deserved a rest! Do you know anything about this supposed new strain of COVID – such as how they test for it – a different PCR test, I presume.
David Bailey: I had hoped he was having a skiing holiday, which he surely deserves! Or s skiing now prohibited?
@DrK,
what’s the current lab panel for RTI, is SARS-CoV-2 the first test and if that returns positive, do the tests stop, or do ‘flu & pneumonia get run anyway (as in “first hit” or “exhaustive search”)?
Yet another great post Dr Kendrick. Please keep up the good work. Its reassuring to know that common sense + proper data analysis can still be presented through the madness.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55479018 This sort of rhetoric from a hospital consultant does significantly more harm than any virus. In fact I would go so far as to say that the comments and their context needs to be looked at, after all if a consultant or senior nurse in an NHS hospital said anything that went against the official line the GMC and definitely the NMC would become involved.
Just read that that Prof. Hugh Montgomery, head of an ICU dept., said that anybody who does not wear a mask has blood on their hands. Wow! The lunatic has taken over the lunatic asylum. He needs certifying. But quick!
I didn’t listen to the Hugh Montgomery video clip (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-55496640) but I read the subtitles – if they were not accurate then someone owes Prof Montgomery an apology.
Quote: “We’re seeing whole families coming in now
and I’m watching one parent then another parent
or a parent and a child die, you know I’m watching
whole families getting wiped out here, and it’s got to stop.”
Hmm… NHS England have also just published their latest weekly spreadsheet on Covid deaths (https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/12/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-31-December-2020-weekly-file.xlsx). No change among 0-19 year olds in the past week – 27 total since the beginning. Maybe this ‘parent and a child’ death occurred since records closed at 4pm yesterday, but I would have thought it would make headlines. I think Prof Montgomery is exaggerating for effect.
Or getting bribed or blackmailed to lie?
Wow. No.
I have no reason to think Prof Montgomery is not sincere. ‘Exaggerating for effect’ is as far as I’m willing to go. *I think* he’s wrong based on my own investigation of the published data.
I have a great deal of respect for him and what he does. I could never do his job but I’m fairly sure he could never have done mine.
Doctor Kendrick, I would count Boulderite’s remark as a personal insult to Professor Montgomery. Wouldn’t you? And you only allow personal insults if they’re directed at yourself I think. So why have you allowed this to pass scrutiny? Please do the honourable thing Doctor and remove it.
I thought about it. But when someone accuses others of, effectively, murder, then I feel that the perspective alters. If you cannot take it, you should not give it out. You may disagree with this, and I would respect that opinion. I mainly mean, personal insults against other commenting on this blog. It prevents any further discussion of any value.
Did you actually read the article or just the headline? Is it only you allowed to have an opinion?
If he didn’t keep his face covered, life may become unpleasant after such an example of misinformation. Then again it is being aired by the Brainwashing B’stards Company
Misinformation?? Professor Montgomery is actually there, on the wards, at the coalface!
“It is making me actually very angry now that people are laying the blame on the virus, and it is not the virus, it is people, people are not washing their hands, they are not wearing their masks,” he said.”
If there were any justice Montgomery would be removed from his position for making such an unfounded remark.
It’s not the virus, it’s not the people, it’s the politicians led by their SAGE behaviour manipulators. Most of what we see is not real, it is deliberately induced fear.
How do you explain someone like the 41-year-old American congressman dying this week who had no chronic diseases? Was it just a “little flu,” as the Brazil nut-president likes to call covid. The Spanish Flu was obviously much more deadly, but it was also a completely different era with no vaccines and a lot less medical tools. And perhaps the covid statistics are not as bad because countries did do lockdowns? What’s clear to me is that certainly this novel virus affects some people much more than others. The most frequent common denominator is said to be old-age and underlying issues likes diabetes and heart disease but I suspect it is also that some people just have weaker immune systems than others (for a variety of reasons: age in some cases, diet and others, more..) or have bad luck with the level of infection.
Yes, the gravity of the pandemic lies somewhere between, but closer to very serious than not.
Not absolutely sure but I read he had a heart attack. People like him might have partly occluded arteries and the Covid-19 is the last straw.
According to The Washington Post he died of a heart attack after an operation.
Yes, his heart did stop, and it was due to complications from covid, not because he had heart disease.
Read the Washington Post article here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/12/29/luke-letlow-covid-louisiana-congress/
Excerpts:
– “Letlow announced that he had tested positive for the novel coronavirus on Dec. 18, the Monroe News-Star reported, and isolated at his home in Richland Parish in northeastern Louisiana. By the next day, he was admitted to the hospital.”
– “..on Tuesday (Dec. 29), he suffered a “cardiac event” and died, Ghali (his doctor) said. Asked whether any underlying conditions might have contributed to his death, Ghali said, “None. All covid related”..
– “..he had an inconsistent record of wearing masks while campaigning, sometimes covering his face at meet-and-greets but also speaking indoors without a mask on to rooms of mask-free residents.”
I think one incident can not be representative of anything.
If you follow the statistics and daily obits, you will find there have been literally tens of thousands of incidents around the world just like this one. In America, covid is taking more than 3000 people per day right now and it is on the rise. This particular case though is especially illustrative given Letlow’s age and lack of underlying disease; it undeniably shows that covid is indeed a real, deadly disease and, most important, not only for the elderly. Stop buying conspiracy garbage.
Dear brian, I have now cancelled my ongoing order for conspiracy garbage, can you please provide a quote for the official statistics/deadly disease (for which most people need a test to tell them they are in danger of dying at some point) garbage?
Isn’t the point that flu is not always a mild disease, and it can kill, but we have learned to live with it, not destroy our economies in a frenzy of panic to try to eliminate every last flu virus.
That is what we should be doing – protect the vulnerable, and let the rest continue as normal?
Besides, after these lockdowns finish, there will be no money for anything – including health care – we are burning our house down to get rid of a wasp’s nest!
Brain, in this new age of enlightenment we all need to question the information we are fed by the media. An American congressman … my immediate thought would be overweight person who doesn’t exercise or eat responsibly, I may be wrong, but there again are perfectly healthy people really dying from Covid ?
Do the covidians really think that the vast majority of people who died ‘from’ Covid weren’t going to die this year anyway ? Unfortunately, or not, death is inevitable for all of us and more so for those who are older or sick.
The NHS/PHE seem to be a bit cagey wrt the PCR threshold Ct cycle rate used in PCR testing. Some suggest that values as high as 45 are being used. Many sources suggest that a value of >40 cycles is useless for virus detection, or even >35 cycles. It will be useful to see what happens over the next few months.
FYI – “A typical RT-PCR assay will have a maximum of 40 thermal cycles”, taken from: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cycle-threshold-ct-in-sars-cov-2-rt-pcr
I guess you are only quoting, but it simply does not make sense to combine the words ‘typical’ and ‘maximum’ in one sentence!
There is also the oxymoronic question, properly asked, “…..but there again are perfectly healthy people really dying from Covid ?” Perfectly healthy people do not die of diseases. Something in their system is not working properly.
Brian, a starting point would be
“Distrust the government,
Avoid the mass media,
Fight the lies”.
Governments have been shown to be almost universal deceivers over this virus, and their paid stooges in the media just do as they are told. What you get told is unlikely to be the facts.
I’m not aware of the details so I can only speculate:
England’s NHS reports that up to 30 Dec 2020 342 people aged 40-59 with no previously diagnosed underlying medical condition died with Covid in NHS hospitals in England. Leaving aside freak accidents like being killed as a result of a car crash shortly after a positive test I think we can reasonably say that Covid killed at least some of them.
Our ONS publishes data using different agegroups to the NHS so it’s difficult to directly compare numbers but this should be close enough: On average in the years 2010-2019 62,400 people aged 45-64 in England and Wales die each year. 342 people is 0.5% of this number.
I am not aware of a source of historical data with which we could compare how many people with no underlying health conditions died of ‘flu (for example) each year. (Yes, I know Inflenza is not a Coronavirus – comparing their effects does not make me a bad person).
I know some such people exist – but nobody I know would claim that nobody has died of *just* this damned bug. It may well be that Luke Letlow was just unlucky.
Brian
Oh dear oh dear – I suppose it had to happen sometime and Brian went for it , like a dog after a bone.
Maybe the US is different but for the life of me, around here the crisis is and has been in the media. Folk dying of all sorts of things, the relatively young usually suicide otherwise, all the usual suspects continue to take their toll. I should be worried at 60 with coronary issues and × but am not.
Is there something wrong with me ?
How do you explain the death of 188 children from the flu?
2019-20 Season’s Pediatric Flu Deaths Tie High Mark Set During 2017-18 Season. August 21, 2020 – CDC today reported one new seasonal flu-related death in a child that occurred during the 2019-2020 season, bringing the total number of flu deaths in children reported to CDC for last season to 188.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2019-2020/2019-20-pediatric-flu-deaths
And btw :
About 900 persons die annually from diseases associated with or related to constipation. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02554713
I am reminded of Mr Creosote!!!
Why can’t the government see this common sense. I’m a lay woman and it’s perfectly logical. Although I am a litter worried other factors or people are manipulating the virus for other agendas.
Always good to hear read your Blog, some sanity in a Mad world, unfortunately I had to have a test today for work otherwise I won’t get paid!! After reading your views at least I know there is at least one Doctor out there who agrees they probably are causing more panic than needed!! Thank you and Happy New year let’s hope 2021is a bit sane!! 😊😊
Wonderful wonderful wonderful.
But we have to try to prevent such panics spreading in the future if we can.
To me Ian there were two main catalysts:
1. The horrific images portrayed in the media of Wuhan and Italy – both localized outbreaks.
2. The number 500,000
After that it became a self-perpetuating shambles.
Just applauding here
Is anyone experiencing this and can anyone explain it?
After I’ve clicked onto this blog on my tablet, the web address very often stays in my ‘history’ section and I have to shut everything down to get rid of it. It doesn’t happen with any other site. It’s making me suspicious. Should it?
I get the odd post from this Blog. Mostly it is spasmodic, but sometimes posts do come in splurges – like now. Historically, I recall that many folk have had odd issues with posts and the like, and that Dr K himself has puzzled over this from time to time. Odd things do happen. Maybe it’s just a WordPress software issue/quirk, but then… maybe not.
Shaun, I have found that some of the subscriptions on the WordPress Follow-me page have dropped into “Pending”. All was well when I corrected it.
I notice websites built on WordPress have very persistent cookies. I view this blog in a browser on my PC, so no idea what happens on a phone (my aging eyes can’t read long-form pieces on such a small screen). No option but to clear your cache, which may well cancel any active logins on other sites.
Good point Thunkit, but I do both (Mob & Laptop) as my Bank are forever getting me to clear the bloody cache, and so something else is going on. I can go for weeks with no news from Dr K’s Blog, and then bam! Flooded. I don’t give other WordPress a/c’s the same attention I that do with this blog (…from time-to-time when my interest is pricked), and have no bother with some other like-minded souls as Dr K, but then maybe its ‘cos they are not… blogs? Dunno.
Thank you re. caches.
This is excellent and well balanced. Do you not think the question of asymptomatic transmission (or lack thereof) is important enough for a review of what’s out there? I would certainly welcome any analysis you had on this.
WOW, sense at last, but to be expected seeing your many balanced and well researched previous posts. As a well couple in their late 70’s – is this really an oxymoron? – My Wife and I feel especially vulnerable to all the panic measures being constantly rolled out by our ‘Gilbert & Sullivan’ government and their fake so called scientific puppet masters. According to the BBC et al. I have ‘Blood on my Hands’ and am a Criminal for having the audacity of attempting to live a normal life with family & friends. Since March this year we have tried our utmost to carry on regardless, often in ignorance of the latest panic measures and ‘Scares’ as depicted by the MSM and other gutter media. Sorry BBC, but after a long relationship we have finally parted company! This Xmas we have been especially busy in our Crime Spree. Grandchildren from 4 to 13 Years old, sleepovers (adults) Xmas lunch with Sister in Law, the usual cursed supermarket shop, opening the mail without sanitising it first …………………where to stop? Happily some of our previously nervous family members have ‘thrown in the towel’ and agreed to comply with our Criminality, and a great PLUS is that our grandkids have not been indoctrinated not to touch Granny and mask up etc. Additionally in opposition to the ‘elf & safety lobby for the elderly. We / I still enjoy Smoked Salmon ( our immune systems are not considered to be up to its possible bugs! ) climb ladders, heavy gardening in the cold, I service the car – MOT due when silencer blew out so onto ebay and next warmer day under said car with spanners jacks + stands – NB did risk assessment first !!!!!
It seems that good health is the answer, and that age alone is not a good enough indicator of frailty or morbidity. Obviously, and even more so in the case of the Wuhan Flu which appears to be relatively benign in the absence of underlying medical conditions, age will show an increased probability of a bad outcome by virtue of most serious diseases progressing to their final outcome as years accumulate. Add to that the isolation which often descends on retirees who’s lives have revolved around their work place. Advice to the young – develop as many pastimes and interests as possible both physical and even more so mental, then when you retire you will feel instead a release from routine into a sane and productive phase of your life. In my case I retired very late and the freedom to make decisions free from imposed restrictions from ‘elf & Safety, accounts, spread sheets, micro management regimes, etc, felt as an escape from prison island!
On the question of Lockdowns and the ‘Stay at Home’ mantra surely this strategy is counter productive if not dangerous to our health? I was of the opinion that our body’s defence or immune response would be dependant on the particular enemy in the vicinity. Historically, a good example of this is the tragic fate of the Inca civilisation when confronted with pathogens imported by the Conquistadores. Whatever the latest claims of organisations such as the WHO say on this I still believe this is a fact. So when we are told to ‘Stay Home’ aren’t we really harming our defences not only to the currently circulating virus but all the other ‘Bad Boys’ out there as well? Perhaps going to the Super Market is a free vaccination thats been developed over millennia and way in advance of anything developed in a lab – especially in the current rush.
Thanks, well done again!
I do not think there will be any change in “official” response until a majority of health care professionals reject them. Why are most medical doctors and nurses unable to recognize and accept the exceptional clarity of evidence that shotgun PCR testing and lockdown mania are the oppose good healthcare? Are they not exposed to this information? Or, even with reasonable intelligence are they just sheep with hive mind thinking?
Oh my goodness! So well articulated. True to the state of affairs. Thank goodness for sound reasoning. 🙂 thank you sir
An excellent read, thank you so much for talking sense.
You mention the 1967 (I assume you mean the 1968 ‘Hong Kong’ ‘flu) pandemic as being comparably deadly. I was 16 and studying for A-levels at the time – I can remember several of my A-level questions, but nothing about the ‘flu, probably because there was nothing to remember. The UK experienced around 80,000 excess deaths (equivalent to 100,000, scaling for today’s population), but we didn’t get daily news bulletins of the number of deaths or stories about the NHS being overwhelmed, and we certainly didn’t close down our economy. Of course, most adults at the time would have fought in a World War or been subject to the Blitz – they knew what real risk was; we seem to have forgotten.
In the USA, the Woodstock Music Festival took place in the midst of the Hong Kong flu pandemic, yet life went on as normal.
I was 21 at the time and was a student at a university in the U,S. I didn’t know there was a pandemic.
Excellent article
Thank you
Dr. Malcolm – Thanks again for an in-depth analysis of what the data says. For a lot of this, I’d come to about the same conclusions, but you added a bit more to that. Maybe more importantly, you’re coming at this from a professional direction and really know what you’re talking about, where I’m looking as an amateur.
A problem with the Government response has been “follow the science!” since there is a tradition of scientists always telling the truth that no longer actually applies, if it ever actually did. People get stuck in beliefs whether they are scientists in their day-job or not. Where the authorities say “there are no medicines that work for a virus” and “vaccines are the only way out”, and that vitamin supplements are unnecessary with a modern diet, that will tend to be accepted as a basis for the government response. With social media, and the burgeoning of fact-checking sites and the flagging-up of “false data” when someone tries to post something against the official consensus, it’s pretty difficult to even tell other people that the official position is faulty.
This doesn’t seem to be a conspiracy to make this pandemic worse, just a lot of people believing the official position is correct and thus treating any objections as dangerous misinformation. True Free Speech will obviously contain a lot of carp, but it’s up to the listener to distinguish the carp from the truth in it, but it is nowadays considered that most people can’t discriminate between good and bad information, and so only the officially-sanctioned information can be allowed. Heaven help you if what you say falls into the fuzzy definition of “hate speech” or “denier”, when you could lose your job. (Note for Dr. K – you probably run this risk every time you post.) Bit of a bummer when modern technology makes it so much easier to publish information around the world.
I suspect that the “flattening of the curve” involved in lockdowns has just given the virus more time to mutate. There’s talk of 2nd and 3rd waves, but in truth this is still the first wave since the virus never went away, it’s just that the transmission was depressed for a while but not stopped.
Fairly early on, it was known that HCQ reduced the severity of the disease (and hospitalisations) if given early enough with Zinc and an antibiotic. A bit later on, Ivermectin was found to be even better. The authorities however didn’t accept that, and over here in France pr. Raoult has had some problems in defending his treatment régime and HCQ is actually illegal to prescribe except for lupus, RA, malaria, and the other accepted uses. This official objection doesn’t make sense, given the long safety record, even if it didn’t help in the way pr. Raoult showed. It is after all safer than Aspirin, officially.
Predicting the future course of this pandemic looks uncertain. We know it will mutate further, and maybe the next mutation will not be stopped by the vaccines (though it looks like HCQ and IVM will still do the job if you get symptoms, and that vitamin D will still improve the response of the immune system). NZ and Oz may currently have stopped infections, but it only takes one failure in the border or quarantine to start it off again. It does seem somewhat odd that the people saying that the natural immunity conferred by having recovered from the disease will be short-lived also say that the vaccine will convey a longer-term immunity, though. It does seem to me that the two versions of immunity will be pretty comparable.
I hope 2021 turns out somewhat better than 2020 has been. Happy New Year!
Thank you for this excellent post. I appreciate how your graphs help disentangle the daily fear we get on the news.
Some news articles indicate that many people have gained weight during COVID, possibly from less physical activity from staying home. Excess weight apparently contributes to chronic diseases and makes COVID more lethal. Could this be another way in which lockdowns might contribute to excess mortality?
I feel like we live in a world where people seek orthodoxy instead of reasoned debate. It was already there with topics like climate change, transgender activism, poverty and exploitation and more. There seems to be one politically acceptable view and everyone else is a climate skeptic, a corona denier or a trans- (or whatever else) phobe. And with COVID so many people can not countenance ambiguity, not knowing something, experts being wrong, changing solutions….they want one truth and no one else dare question it. It’s insanity. But I hope people will see through this in the coming year when they get sick of restrictions and the virus recedes with the end of winter.
Great article again. We need some sanity amidst the current madness.
It seems that the overall level of death, respiratory illness and pressure on hospitals in the last month of this year is in line with a normal UK / northern hemisphere winter. Despite what media, government and certain “scientists” want us to believe.
But illnesses labeled as flu seem to be close to zero. Most of the respiratory infection seems to be Covid.
Is there any view on why flu is seemingly so low? Lockdown supporters would say it proves the efficacy of doing that. I would guess there are other explanations though?
I see they’ve now extended the 2nd booster vaccine gap to 12 weeks.They really do just bumble on and on don’t they.
Dr Kendrick I feel you are being much to nice about this. The response to Covid is being determined by just about anyone based on Wikipedia, what I read on Twitter or some similar knowledge substitute.
On Quora I read an answer written by a lawyer in reply to some public comment of a politician on whether the first vaccine should be prioritised as 1 dose for everyone or 2 doses for at risk groups. When I pointed out to the idiot that there is no reason for thinking that the politician or the lawyer actually knows the correct answer to a very complex question of pharmacy and immunology he responded with BNBR. As a professional he knows what ethics is and yet he still injects his ignorance and stupidity in to public realm.
And this just keeps happening.
So far we have had
It is ventilators
A 3 week period of imprisonment were no one sees anyone else. (So everyone who needs help can just die).
It is (or isn’t) HCQ
PPE we must have PPE
Social distancing, (incels as leaders of society).
Demands to be obeyed (accompanied by threats and shroud waving)
This reminds me of the Iraq war were everyone who thought he was someone decided that Iraq need to be invaded. Then 6 years later everyone discovered they had known better all along, (apart from a few people who’s colours were to firmly nailed to the mast).
What will we be saying by 2027?
PS perhaps we should quote Magnus Pyke from She blinded me with Science, he least that was fun.
Thank you so much for this beacon of sense. You have saved my sanity, Doctor.
> WordPress.com
Sir. The best reading to date on this matter. I’m at a complete loss to understand how Sage enall ignore basic facts and head for worst possible imaginable scenarios. Something has to give soon. Crazy times.
An excellent post, and Dr No agrees wholeheartedly with the points made. One very minor point is how useful Z scores are – there was some debate a while back (Dr No can’t seem to find it…) about the EuroMOMO methodology (from https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score):
“Z-score are computed on the de-trended and de-seasonalized series, after a 2/3 powers transformation according to the method described in Farrington et al.1996”
as in by the time you have de-trended and de-seasonalized and done a 2/3 transformation, what exactly are you left with? A sausage that has been flattened and refashioned into Heaven knows what! Farrington et al’s 1996 paper is not for the fainthearted….
Another way of comparing overall mortality between countries is to look not at the amplitude, but at the shape of the overall mortality curves. For instance, the shape of Sweden’s spring spike is remarkably similar to that of the UK’s, despite very different lockdown policies. Yet another way is to look at weekly all cause deaths per million, as in this Dr No post https://dr-no.co.uk/2020/12/16/the-covid-delusion/ which not only shows no correlation between lockdown measures and mortality, but also shows that most European countries didn’t have a spring spike (or if they did, it is lost in the background noise).
That post also considered the covid ‘have hammer everything is a nail’ problem (“When all you ever hear about is covid, everything starts to look like covid.”) which is related to the if everyone seriously ill in hospital gets a covid test, then if you are not very careful, just about every death starts looking like a covid death. But the real point of the post is the covid delusion – the madness of the crowd, including the mainstream media, just buying into the Establishment narrative, without a moment’s critical thought. This is perhaps the most extraordinary feature of the pandemic, and the hardest one to explain. Maybe it’s just part of being human. As the psychiatrist Alfred Hoche once said (Dr No opens the post with this quote) “There is no delusional idea held by the mentally ill which cannot be exceeded in its absurdity by the conviction of fanatics, either individually or en masse”.
What an excellent article. No hysteria, just unarguable facts. Thank you
An excellent article and easy to follow too. Thanks!
Awesome simple summary of data that makes a lot of sense, unlike the fact free mass hysteria on TV and social media. I saw an update today from the WHO, Dr Soumya Swaminathan, who says even after taking one of the vaccines (and who wants one of those rushed jabs, especially when other options seem to have very high efficacy with years to data to show safety) public health measures like social distancing will still need to be maintained. Makes you wonder what the real agenda is, and when will this madness stop.
Martin Back, https://youtu.be/2mf60U7wHHw do you have any more information on this apparent corrupt move?
“There is no confirmatory data on Ivermectin available as yet for its use in the management of Covd-19 infections. In terms of safety and efficacy,there is no evidence to support the use of ivermectin and we do not have any clinical trial evidence to justify its use.
The use of such a drug could potentially lead to harmful effects or even death and SAHPRA [South African Health Products Regulatory Authority] is firm on the stance that this medicine is unproven in the management of COVID-19 infections. Any attempt to import this drug will be dealt with by SAHPRA’s Regulatory Compliance unit in conjunction with law enforcement agencies such as SAPS [South African Police Service] and the SIU [Special Investigating Unit].”
https://www.sahpra.org.za/news-and-updates/ivermectin-is-not-indicated-nor-approved-by-sahpra-for-use-in-humans/
I have no idea why they got their knickers in a twist over Ivermectin.
“Originally introduced as a veterinary drug, it kills a wide range of internal and external parasites in commercial livestock and companion animals. It was quickly discovered to be ideal in combating two of the world’s most devastating and disfiguring diseases which have plagued the world’s poor throughout the tropics for centuries… It has also been used to successfully overcome several other human diseases and new uses for it are continually being found.
Ivermectin has continually proved to be astonishingly safe for human use. Indeed, it is such a safe drug, with minimal side effects, that it can be administered by non-medical staff and even illiterate individuals in remote rural communities, provided that they have had some very basic, appropriate training.”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3043740/
https://ivmmeta.com/
I have no idea if Ivermectin is effective. As the authors of this meta-study caution, there is a positive publishing bias. In other words, if someone tried it and found it to be ineffective, they would not bother to report that. So you can understand authorities not rushing to prescribe it for fear of being accused of fruitless expenditure.
That said, there are no indications that it is toxic if used correctly. I believe it is fairly cheap, so I don’t understand why authorities don’t run their own trials. It would cost very little, and the potential benefit is great.
If I were the health czar, I would run parallel tests of IVM, HCQ, and any other promising ameliorating drug that is safe and cheap. Ask around at the various hospitals and clinics. I’m sure some doctors favour one treatment, some another, and some don’t want to get involved. Let each hospital and clinic run their own preferred treatment, and compare results. With all the thousands of cases, you’ll very soon have a good idea of what works and what not, with your own population. Once the results are in, you can make the most effective treatment the standard.
Martin, they are not bothering about the ineffectiveness of the vaccines. They are rushing to inflict that on people, and nothing is known about the long term effects. I smell rats
AhNotepad: I think we should all be alarmed about the rapid and widespread rollout of the experimental “vaccines.” Prophylaxis using mRNA technology has never before been used on human subjects. It may take a few months or a year or two to show how dangerous this is. The trials using ferrets or monkeys for earlier versions of SARS vaccines showed neither safety nor efficacy. Those currently given EUA’s in the U.S., and licensing in the UK have only about four months of trial data, which has yet to be published (we’ve seen only press releases). Foolhardy, I say, to even consider becoming a guinea pig for a disease of little consequence to 99.5% of the population.
Carvallo’s study in Argentina is the most striking.
I’m already using Ivermectin as a preventative.
Scotland, Northern Ireland and Eire have disappeared from Euromomo.I fear the worse, that this is some form of censorship by withholding data, I hope not and its a glitch. Does anyone have any info? Nothing surprises me these days, but……
fun with statistics!
us population, 12/30/2018 : 327,533,037
us population, 12/30/2020 : 330,765,573
2018 us deaths, all causes : 2,839,205
2020 us deaths, all causes : 2,913,144 (as of 12/30/2020)
percentage of population died in 2018 : 0.87%
percentage of population died in 2020 : 0.88%
sources:
cdc 2018 mortality info link:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
2020 mortality info:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
census.gov population clock:
https://www.census.gov/popclock/
CT,
It’s a bit confusing, but the CDC data starts on the “week ending 2/1/2020” which means it begins on 1/26/20. Last time I ran the figures, I got about 300k excess deaths over 2019.
You’ve missed the point. This is not about COVID, it’s about money. We are in the middle of a silent global economic war.
It’s all a bit medieval, apply 12 leeches for the pustules infecting the body, mmmmm that didn’t work, OK let’s go for 24 leeches, and keep repeating until it does, end result patient dead..
Reblogged this on Citizens.
Dear Malcolm. I have been following your good self with admiration for many years -hence my utter amazement that you have completely missed the point re mortality rates and covid lockdowns etc. The key is not deaths but the overwhelming of Hospitals and ICUs with sick patients who need treatment. Without such treatment many will suffer seriously and die. The various restrictions in limiting suffering and mortality are therefore fulfilling their purpose. The mortality rates are not a measure of failure but of success. I am hoping you will restore my faith in your credibility by thinking again on such matters. Yours in anticipation. Regards Dick Spicer
Virus-free. http://www.avg.com
On Wed, Dec 30, 2020 at 3:36 PM Dr. Malcolm Kendrick wrote:
> Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: ” 30th December 2020 I have not written much > about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has > simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, > written many hundreds of years ago. In it, Dante describe” >