How dangerous is COVID19?

26th October 2020

[What is the true Infection Fatality Rate]

This article appeared in Russia Today I have made a couple of small changes to it

Facebook fact checkers censured me, and informed me I was wrong, when I said COVID infection fatality rate was around 0.1%. But what do the latest studies say?

The world’s top scientists can’t yet be certain how deadly COVID-19 is, so why are Facebook’s censorial police consistently flagging stories saying this is ‘misinformation’ & claiming the rate is NINE times worse than my estimate?

COVID-19 has impacted the world with massive force, a pandemic beyond anything seen in living memory. There has been an unprecedented reaction – some would say an unprecedented over-reaction. But what are the real figures, what is the true risk from the virus?

It is very difficult to know. At the start of any pandemic, no-one can be sure how many people have been infected. As the World Health Organization states:

“Under-detection of cases may be exacerbated during an epidemic, when testing capacity may be limited and restricted to people with severe cases and priority risk groups (such as frontline healthcare workers, elderly people and people with comorbidities).”

As a general rule, the fatality rate starts by being significantly overestimated, and then falls, as more and more people are tested, and those with mild or asymptomatic infections are identified. With swine flu, the lowest estimated infection fatality rate – the total number of people who die after being infected, whether or not they suffered any symptoms – was one in a thousand, ten weeks into the pandemic. It ended up at 2 in 10,000. Five times lower.

A few weeks ago, I suggested the final infection rate from COVID-19 could be as low as 0.1%. By which I mean that out of every thousand people infected, one would die.

This created something of a storm and various self-appointed fact-checking ‘authorities’ decreed that this figure was completely wrong. Under the heading ‘What is the real death rate’ it was stated that:

“By looking at English data, it is clear that the death rate in this country must be much higher than 0.1%. The researchers who conducted the REACT-2 survey produced a more detailed analysis, which estimated an overall death rate that is nine times higher, at about 0.9%.

Of course, this is important to get right. If the infection fatality rate is 0.1%, then the total number of deaths in the UK will top out at around 67,000. If it is 0.9%, the final death toll could be over 500,000, which means we have (potentially) another 450,000 deaths to go. Indeed, it is the fear of the ‘450,000’ figure that is driving the renewed lockdowns.

So, where do we stand now? The figures are still all over the place, with some perhaps more reliable than others. Interestingly, the WHO (perhaps inadvertently) estimated the infection at far lower than 0.9%

Around two weeks ago, Dr Mike Ryan, the executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies programme, stated the WHO estimated that 750 million people have been infected worldwide:

‘An estimated 750 million, or 10 per cent of the world’s population, have been infected by COVID-19, World Health Organisation (WHO) official Dr Mike Ryan has said.’

At the time of his statement, there had been just over one million deaths recorded worldwide (1,034,068 to be fully accurate). Using these two figures, the IFR can be easily calculated. It is 1,034,068/750,000,000 = 0.138%. How accurate is this figure? Well, who knows for certain? It is probably as accurate as most other current estimates.

Yet even using these WHO-endorsed figures is apparently verboten in the eyes of the Facebook ‘fact checkers’. Another site that reported these numbers also found its story flagged as “misinformation” by Facebook, and has subsequently accused the social media giant of “selling falsehoods and re-writing history”.

One wide-ranging piece of work, a review of 61 studies of COVID deaths covering 51 countries, was done recently by John Ioannidis, a professor of epidemiology at Stanford University, and a man described as “a lion of medical science”. The article, peer-reviewed and published by the WHO, concluded that the infection fatality rate currently stands at 0.23%, and suggested it would fall further, warning: “The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic.”

Who would one rather believe on this matter? A Harvard-trained infectious disease specialist, author of some of the most cited articles in medical history, and a man who “The Atlantic” has called “one of the most influential scientists alive”? Or some ‘fact checkers’ who, I’m confidently guessing, don’t have quite such a track record or expertise?

It is true the fatality rates currently differ widely from country to country, influenced by other factors such as age and health. In Singapore, there have been nearly 60,000 ‘cases’ recorded, with twenty-eight deaths. This represents a case fatality rate of 0.02%.

As for Iceland, which was (proportionately) the most tested population in the world and used as a benchmark in the early days of the pandemic, things have moved on. As of late October, they have had just over 4,000 ‘cases’ of COVID19 and eleven deaths.

This represents a case fatality rate of 0.26%. You may have noticed my switch to case fatality rate. Case fatality rate means (or used to mean) those with symptoms of the disease, not just those infected. So, the case fatality rate will always be higher than the infection fatality rate, as the infection fatality rate includes those with no symptoms. Many of whom will be untested and undetected.

Another, more recent paper, by Prof. Ioannidis looking at the global Infection Fatality Rate came to the conclusion that it stood, as of October 7th, at 0.15‐0.20%.

Of course, this figure is for the entire population, including the elderly, and those at higher risk because they have other serious medical conditions. His latest estimate of the IFR in the population aged under 70 is 0.04%. Which is 4 in 10,000, and this figure includes people with serious underlying medical conditions.

What would it be for healthy people under 70? Almost certainly a lot less, but I have seen no good figures on this.

As is very clear, the figures have not yet settled down, and different countries have very different estimates. One constant thing though, as with previous pandemics, is the high fatality figures found at the start are steadily falling. The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine in Oxford have been looking at the declining case fatality rates over time, and says:

“Crude estimates of the CFR over time show that for people aged 80 and over the average CFR was 29% up to week 18, fell to 17% in weeks 19 to 27, and for mid-July onwards the CFR was 11% – a decrease of 61%.

“A larger decrease is seen in the ages 60-79 with average CFR ~ 9% in March/April falling to 2% in July August.”

Of course, it is up the individual to decide which figures they believe to be the most accurate. This is an area where the science is clearly not yet settled. Different authorities are claiming very different fatality rates. But – despite what Facebook’s ‘fact checkers’ maintain – very few researchers currently appear to believe the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 is anywhere near 0.9%.

What about those who believe that they can determine what the infection fatality rate for COVID19 really is, and will be, and also believe that they can act as judge and jury in determining who is right, and who is wrong, on this issue? Well, at the risk of being damned again, I politely suggest a bit of humility would be appropriate. Attempting to shut down debate in science used to be the role of the Spanish Inquisition. I thought we had moved on. Debate is the lifeblood of science.

483 thoughts on “How dangerous is COVID19?

  1. con

    Clearly we need a spotlight on the “fact checkers”. Who are they? Are they the leading experts in their fields? What seems most likely is they are the equivalent of call centre staff on minimum wage, working from a script. A top person in any field has better things to do.

    1. Steve Condie

      I think that the “fact checkers” are nothing more than people with a command of simple math. In the United States, .075% of the entire population of the nation has died from COVID-19. If the IFR of the disease was .1% that would require that 75% of the population has already contracted COVID-19. Serology tests suggest that, at most, 8 – 10% of the population has been infected. Given the recent huge increase in cases nationwide it is clear that “herd immunity” is not a factor, which presumably would be the case if 75% of the population had already had the disease. The Russia Today article is nothing but an extended exercise in ignoring hard, reliable data and spewing smoke – for what purpose, I have no idea.

  2. dougtallman

    You’re a doctor, so I hold you to a higher standard …

    . It ended up at 2 in 10,000. Five times lower.

    Something cannot be “times smaller.” It might have been one fifth, but not five times smaller. It’s commonly stated, but it’s still wrong, and someone with your education should know better.

    Doug Tallman

    Sent from my iPhone


      1. David Cockburn

        I know what you meant… amusing to think Doug or Douglas to be more correct thinks that doctors are infallible.. I see you as more of a rebel intellectual type scientist.. anyway getting back to CVD have you read Vladimir Subbotin’s paper on the pathogenesis of cvd… very plausible… would love to hear your view on his hypothesis… there is a precis video posted on youtube last year if you are too busy to go through the paper

    1. Joe Dopelle

      “times… Though the OED gives a 19C. example of the type ‘ten times less’ (‘Men who had ten or twenty times less to remember’ – Gladstone, 1876) and the type occurs from time to time in the 20C., it is better to assume that ‘times’ normally implies multiplication, and to restrict its use to contexts in which multiplication is plainly intended”.

      – “Fowler’s Modern English Usage”, Third Edition.

      I think it is reasonable for Dr Kendrick, writing about a medical topic, to employ an idiom used by a British Prime Minister nearly 150 years ago. His meaning was crystal clear, and your purpose in obtruding so rudely on this blog is unclear.

      If you, Mr Tallman, would be so kind as to show us a lengthy sample of your own prose, I expect that we shall be able to pick some holes in it too.

    2. Martin Back

      “It’s commonly stated, but it’s still wrong”

      The way language works, if it’s commonly stated enough times, it becomes right.

      “the lowest estimated infection fatality rate … Five times lower” seems to flow more easily than any other construction. I had no problem with it.

    3. Peter Walker

      Without getting into a prolonged dispute I would simply state that it is flying in the face of common sense to make such a statement.

    4. shirley3349

      Surely any native speaker of colloquial English knows that “five times smaller” refers to the fraction not the multiple? Whether it’s good written style is then a matter of taste.

      1. Patrick Healy

        Shirley you are surely right! Sorry about that awful old “Airoplane” pun.
        On a more serious note we should a be grateful to the good Doctor for constantly speaking common sense.
        I have 2 much more serious bones to lick with him though.
        He states ‘ the science is not yet settled’
        That really upsets me. Science is never “settled” ask Einstein (if he is still around)
        This lie is constantly used by the Global Warning cultists and is plainly untrue.
        My second point is the main trust of this great article which is censorship.
        Those who believe in and are using this Wuhan Virus to control the world’s population know exactly where they are going. All the Main Stream Media and all Silicon Valley conglomerates act in concert to create the news which most unfortunates are only too willing to consume without question.
        To witness the extent of the censorship our good Doctor talks about just try looking up The Biden Crime Family on the most widely used search engine. Zilch, nada, nothing.
        Then use either Duckduckgo or and compare the results.
        One does not need to be paranoid to realise they are out to get you!
        So never mind arguing about bits of grammar – congratulate Dr Kendrick for having the brass balls to question the narrative.

  3. John GW

    If this is all correct (and I’m sure it is) why was there such a panic about it when it all kicked off in Wuhan?

      1. susan mosson

        Thanks Dr. Kendrick for you blogs and I love this video by Robert F Kennedy Jnr. All in all I think this will go down as the greatest crime against humanity and so pleased that a lawyer Dr. Rainer Fuellmick is taking it to court! Keep up the good work Dr. Kendrick I always look forward to your blogs, you restore my faith in humanity xxxx

        1. Gery.

          Robert Kennedy – an absolutely inspirational heart centred truth speaker of great courage. I love him. That speech brought tears to my eyes; it was so powerful. Yes, and Reiner Fuellmich, Dr Heiko Schoning and the World Doctors Alliance, they all have my greatest respect for standing up to this tyrannical destruction. This will be the last and final greatest crime against humanity – this time we fully reclaim our power, emerging stronger, fully awakened, loving as humanity united forever. xxx

    1. Steve

      We really only know what happened in Wuhan from MSM reporting – was that, uncharacteristically, accurate this time ?
      Wuhan is in China !! Did that have an impact on the story ? Imagine it had started in the USA.
      The initial story had: a cross infection allegedly caused by eating bats; millions infected; bodies lying in the street; New hospitals built in only around five days. What is the reality ?
      The WHO didn’t think it was a big story, a pandemic, until external Western pressure was applied to it.
      Have we been duped ? Yes, I think so, and the clue, the smoking gun, is US/China relations.

      As they say: when America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold.
      Maybe, when China sneezes the US will ensure the rest of the world shuts down.

    2. David Cockburn

      I live in China mostly which is virtually covid19 free.. Wuhan could have turned China into a New York or a UK but everyone here cooperated and it was snuffed out. The system is not perfect here but there is a system and things work pretty well.
      UK citizens were probably correctly told to stay at home and possibly die because the NHS could not have coped with the alternative chaos and much larger numbers of deaths as would be the case in any country. Governments who try to protect their hospitals being overwhelmed resulting in chaos and civil disorder are doing the right thing and efforts to try to keep businesses going and protect economies and livelihoods are also correct and commendable. Balancing the problem is difficult and should criticised less…it is also playing out quite well worldwide.
      As Malcolm says we need some humility when looking at nature in action while the human race’s exesses are redressed.
      From a general health perspective in most cities China is light years ahead..doctors all work in hospitals here (no gp’s 👍) so you only see a specialist team and you can attend any hospital without an appointment… immediate affordable basic tests are undertaken and diagnosis with treatment options are usually offered within hours or the same day …most basic blood tests for example can be ordered immediately by any doctor and the results are online and accessible by doctors and patients alike within two hours ….the UK should abandon the outdated system where you see a doctor often less qualified than a nurse in terms of common sense who makes you wait for an appointment and then with no basic tests guesses at what you may have with the chances of seeing a specialist bleak…GPs are a waste of time and money and should all work from hospitals where they can operate as part of an effective specialist team helping people within an acceptably short time based on tests and results.
      Changing tack to non Covid matters if Malcolm reads this note I must thank him for his scientific approach and criticisms which are very brave and I look forward to hearing more about CVD .. and his enlightening views on this subject.
      If anyone is interested in the pathogenesis of CVD ..I would urge them to check out a paper written by Vladimir Subbotin in 2016 which I find very plausible.. it does reference some 280 other scientific papers which take some wading through but there is a youtube video he posted last year which is
      a quick precis of his please watch it before big pharma has it taken down

      1. Jerome Savage

        “doctor often less qualified than a nurse in terms of common sense ”
        Now theres a statement. Aren’t we led to believe that doctors have poorer diagnostic capabilities than some software programs meaning that the sensible nurse will take centre stage. Dr Kendrick look out!

        1. Ruth Baills

          Well, when I worked as a nurse (retired now 8 years), if a Doctor made a mistake and you carried out the order the nurse got into trouble. So the nurse had to always be on high alert to anything that did not look right and question the order. 🙂

      2. Eggs ‘n beer

        But, we can walk to our GP’s surgery. She knows the whole family’s history. We have a strong working relationship on health matters. We don’t have to explain everything to her anew every visit. She’ll drop off test results on her way home. We can select a medication, discuss it with her and, if she agrees, get the prescription. The current group of specialists (not referred through any suggestion of hers but from a retiring specialist) are turning out to be a bunch of money sucking, lying weasels who seem desperate to keep their expensive machinery more utilised during the COVID fiasco. Because she knows us, comments to her from a specialist that she needs “to help (the patient) make an informed decision” are laughed off as a total underestimation of our ability to research the data and arrive at a decision ourselves – especially when the details of the patient’s history in the rest of her letter make it clear that she hasn’t listened to a word we said at the con$ultation.

        Of course, that sort of self control over our lives is the last thing that the Communist Party want. Centralised health care as you describe is their goal. Long live the GP!

        1. Nigella P

          You are most fortunate Eggs’n beer – that has not been my experience of the various GP services I have used since leaving home some 30 years ago. I have battled to get even the most basic health assistance for myself and my children (one with a diagnosis of autism) and I can only thank god/ the universe / good fortune etc that I have private healthcare.

          I have heard that your experience may have been the case back in the day when GPs had more time to see patients, resident populations remained the same and the NHS hadn’t been underfunded for 30+ years and I heartily wish it were still so, but I don’t believe my experience is unique, as my friends and family say the same and I even have a family member who is a GP! They endlessly complain about the lack of time they have to spend with each patient and the lack of resources to refer for thorough testing because their CCG has such a stranglehold on what is permitted, not to mention the constant fear of being sued if they don’t follow the NICE guidelines to the letter.

      3. theasdgamer

        Here in the US a GP discovered the preeminent hydroxychloroquine treatment. Back in march. And said that early treatment was essential.

        Otoh, in my experience, a lot of gp’s are quacks who only follow authorized protocols.

        Heterogeneity thrives in the US. If you have some wisdom, you can sift the baby from the bathwater and get excellent health care.

        1. anna m

          Another doctor in Texas stumbled upon budesonide (pulmocort), an asthma medication, that also works extremely well. I was hoping it would get more traction. He said that he also discovered that this med is being studied for covid in 2 other countries. I have asked my GP if she would prescribe it, or hydroxy, and she said yes.

    3. Martin Back

      The West only started sitting up and taking notice when the Italian doctors swathed in plastic protective clothing posted videos of hospital corridors crammed with gurneys and telling us we had to take this very seriously, it was a disaster situation. We didn’t realise at the time it was in a limited region of Italy and involved mainly very old and sick people

      1. patrick healy

        Yes Martin plus (how many was it) 20,000 40000 Chinese workers who flew back to their Chinese owned fabric and leather factories in Italy from China. Another item which our censorious MSM ‘forget’ to tell us.
        Sorry, as stated above Chinese Communism is wonderful !!!!
        Can any one explain why this Wuhan Flu is the third major virus coming out of ‘wonderful’ China?
        Anyone on here old enough to remember Hong Kong Flu or Swine Flu?
        I am old enough to remember up to 80,000 fatalities during 1968/69.
        How many have died DIRECTLY as a result of this present flu?
        Has it anything to do with the great Global Reset, the New World Order or the upcoming US Presidential Election, after all they have thrown the kitchen sink at Trump and he is still standing.

        1. Steve-R

          Many moons ago I read that the explanation is that selenium is at very low soils concentration in that hotbed of viral diseases. Selenoproteins form a significant set of functions in our immune system so if the diet is low they are not made in sufficient quantities so viruses get a hold and then transmit through enough victims to evolve to virulence. HIV also takes up selenium denying adequate supplies to the immune system.
          That the statin assault on the mevalonate pathway also reduces selenoprotein production is surely no coincidence when looking at the vulnerability of the elderly consumers of statins to the current virus.
          Some countries, like Finland, do insist on fertilising soils with selenium – the UK doesn’t I think.

          1. Bev

            Australian soils are said to be low in selenium too. Which is why my daily food intake includes 1 Brazil nut.

          2. Binra (@onemindinmany)

            This is indeed one claim among many that I count under malnutrition – regardless the look or the calories of food. IE: There are critical deficiencies across the spectrum of sustenance.
            The other side of the same coin are toxins or imbalances to that effect.
            The interplay of the living body in sustaining the conditions for life go perhaps infinitely beyond our modelling of it. So it doesn’t follow that calcium supplements or more dairy will help bones. Or that taking in substances means that the body takes them up in the way we wanted.

            The genetic field wanted to discover the secret of life along with patents and applications. Oh – and still does! – but epigenetic opens a closed code system to a living response. And along with all of this is the uncovering of the ‘gut biome’ – which includes what we call viral expression – that operates the life support for our digestion, immune functions and cognitive faculties – and which also operates a genetic information exchange at frequency rates that make a fruit fly seem to live to a venerable old age.

            So while I also see nutrition as key to life beyond a mere survival, I see that we humans have reacted to our life and responded to our environment and each other in unique ways – resulting from our mind-modelling of reality as part of conscious choice or decision.
            We can get in our own way – and then blame everyone and everything else.

            I hold the body as being self-healing and adaptive – and some of our adaptations are mental or cultural, but supported by a largely invisible realm of biota operating symbiotically within the conditions of change and challenge. Biota that are in subtle but direct communication with the total environment – and not just the field of perception extended with instruments and aligned to models that can be wrong.

    1. Ken Garoo

      The WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System system shows that globally influenza almoost disappeared from around week 16 of 2020 (coincidentally the peak of the Covid cases/fatalities).

      Enter a ‘from’ year/week and a ‘to’ year/week and press ‘display report’

      It is worth looking at the data pre- and post-2009. The difference is absolutely remarkable. I don’t know if the differece is due to changes in reporting levels before and after as opposed to changes in disease incidence.

      1. john barr

        I would suggest that many of the normal seasonal flu cases were reported as Covid, rather than flu. I am a GP, not in UK, but was told by a UK GP friend that they were ordered, (not too strong a word), to report all deaths of people with Covid-type symptoms, as Covid deaths, even though they may have been flu, bacterial pneumonia, possibly congestive cardiac failure. This would skew the figures towards Covid being much more serious than it really is. Malcolm’s figures would suggest 0.1%.
        I would be interested to know the reason behind a desire to inflate the death rates. One would think that information stating that the illness is not too severe would be greeted with joy, not non-belief and censure.

        1. DaveL

          Could be. Another thing I thought of as all the medical and news institutions are now flogging the flu vaccine: since people are social distancing, etc. won’t that drastically reduce the incidence of the flu and other communicable diseases? I got suspicious of all that flu vaccine pushing, so thought that would be a good reason to forego it, because the risk is now probably a lot lower of catching it. I now stay out of indoor places with lots of people, especially if I suspect the ventilation is faulty or non-existent, for example.

  4. Anna

    > Dr Mike Yeadon The Delingpod: The James Delingpole Podcast>
    > Dr Mike Yeadon has a degree in biochemistry and toxicology, a research-based PhD in respiratory pharmacology, has spent over 30 years leading new medicines research in the pharmaceuticals industry, and founded his own biotech company which he sold to the world’s biggest drug company Novartis in 2017. He shared a lab with Patrick Vallance.
    > He talks to James about his devastating paper What SAGE has Got Wrong ( in which he says that the Covid pandemic is over, that there will be no Second Wave, that we have already achieved herd immunity and that Sir Patrick Vallance, Britain’s Chief Scientific Adviser, is a liar and that the vaccine is more or less a waste of time. He doesn’t pull his punches.

    1. Peter Swettenham

      An excellent article by Dr Mike Yeadon but I can’t find anything that states Sir Patrick Vallance is a liar?

    2. AhNotepad

      Thank you Anna. Mike Yeadon is the best source of the truth to date, and his explanation is so straightforward.

      1. Fiona

        Dear AhNotepad, I’m hoping you can help me with something. Sorry for hijacking the comments but couldn’t see how to contact you privately. Somewhere in the comments section of a recent blog there were references to an expectorant medication which actually works. I have trawled through thousands of comments trying to find the name of said medication (for a friend) and no joy. I picked you as someone who I suspect reads everything and might remember what I’m talking about. It was after the Terminology Blog I think. Thanks for any help you can give.

        1. AhNotepad

          Fiona, that was flattering, but I’m afraid I read lots of things, but by no means everything, and I remember some of the bits I agree with.

          To find what you are looking for it might work if you open the blogs one by one, and use the find function to look for “expectorant”. I was going to look until I saw how many blogs there were.

          1. Jean Humphreys

            Some vague memory of a cough medicine (over the counter) which cause the body to produce mucus that was more liquid an so easier to clear from the airways. There was quite a canter for a while : some couples having difficulty conceiving maintained that it helped, by liquifying the cervical mucus which was causing a barrier. Of course the medical tribes said Rubbish. Tosh and so forth but – rhere is a certain logic there and plenty of people were willing to be called twits for what they belived to be true (HCQ anybody). Can’t remember the ingredient that was supposed to be the one, but perhaps there is somebody as ancient as me who remembers.

          1. Fiona Ferris

            Thanks for the suggestion but it wasn’t that. It was contained within a run of comments about having supplies of medications just in case and what to take for prophylaxis. It was a medical sounding name and I seem to remember a discussion about whether it was actually an expectorant or a mucolytic. I may not have that last word spelled correctly.

          2. Binra (@onemindinmany)

            I just posted a short response to that thread, but to the desire for possible help in THIS focus of attention the last para was:
            Nebuliser-type devices can be used to bring dilute H2O2 (I added a drop of Lugols iodine) to the lungs and offers immediate relief for irritant coughs. Your mileage may vary.
            Dr Bernstein was one of the sources for this protocol for active respiratory conditions.
            Any remedy applied without understanding can be unhelpful. Throwing ‘answers’ at a problem is a way to consolidate the problem – as we are seeing globally now.

        2. JDPatten

          Guaifenesin. Available over the counter.
          Or xylitol. This has a reputation for stripping bacterial biofilm clinging to mucus membranes.
          Don’t take my word for this. Look these up before deciding.

          1. Fiona Ferris

            No, not these either. But thank you. It was an old medication that’s been on the go for decades.

          2. Binra (@onemindinmany)

            Xylitol (birch tree sugar) is also taken up by the bacteria that contribute to tooth decay (as are all sugars) – but prevents the bacteria from reproducing. Hint hint! This is well known by the makers of expensive chewing gum, but a study found a hals teaspoon of the relatively cheap raw material no less effective.
            If the idea of mouthwashing with ‘sugar’ before bedtimes challenges your mindset, go and read your toothpaste ingredients. For most toothpaste, fluoride is not the only toxin. Bicarbonate of soda is my alternative tooth ‘paste’. I don’t need it as a paste. I just want the function.
            I don’t find xylitol works for things like baking (yuk) and it can burble the tummy, but its fine in coffee ( I enjoy a bitter-sweet-creamy coffee). Its simple and cheap and hasn’t been banned!

  5. superquag

    If debate is the lifeblood of ‘Science’ then these “fact-checking” critics are seriously anemic, metsphorically speaking.
    And that’s a fact.

  6. Mr Chris

    I get all of that. What I don’t get is the current panic, new semi lockdowns etc.
    Are they justified?

    1. KJE

      I think a lot of politicians are just having too much fun doing what they like and ordering people around without being answerable to anyone. They don’t care if the plebs lose their jobs or can’t get cancer treatment, or can’t buy light bulbs or candle and have to go round in the dark. It doesn’t affect the rich politicians’ lives and makes it look as though they are concerned about public health. Lockdowns don’t appear to have any affect on virus transmission, but they do damage lives.

      1. AhNotpad

        KJE, some of the UK MPs will start caring now they have received notices that legal action is being taken against each of them personally for fraud.

      2. Patrick Healy

        Come on man, you far too hard on our overworked/unappreciated politicians. Why only last Friday they shut down their (free?) Pub in the house of Commoners.

    2. robertL

      Mr Chris,
      IMO it is political and probably has something to do with the “Davos” The Great Reset.
      google this.


    3. anna m

      Mt. Chris,

      Of course they are not justified.How can you even ask?
      And I say that just based on covid risk, not based on the horrifying facts of the damage that lockdowns do, killing more than the virus.

    4. Binra (@onemindinmany)

      If maintaining a global control system across a spectrum of social, economic and legal frameworks is paramount, then clearly yes, or it would not be promoted, supported and executed by such interests. Ivor Cummings is very clear and has the capacity to remain calm under duress … so far. The condition in play is emotional psychological and therefore social-political. In my view the lie is so big that most minds fold to unreason rather than see it for what it is.
      IE- “They would never do that!”. Billionaire’s ‘wealth’ increased by almost 30% during this facade.
      Insiders run scams that periodically are ‘Crashed’ as a consolidation of possession and control. (in the context of becoming such a ‘house of cards’ as to become uncontrollable).
      War and sickness are therefore a means to an end for …

      Full post at #11

  7. Jeff

    Facebook and other internet companies have seen big rises in their share price since the pandemic scare began, due to increased use of online services, I think.
    So they will facilitate attacks on anyone questioning the exaggeration and sensationalism of the scare.

  8. Arthur Meursault

    What about the long term damage to those that catch covid and don’t die. Have those numbers been calculated? Death isn’t the only endpoint.

    1. Joe Dopelle

      Perhaps if there were any certain way to determine whether a person “has Covid” or not (there isn’t) and if there were any way of quantifying and recording “long term damage” (I know of none).

      We all suffer “long term damage” as a result of the laws of thermodynamics. As time goes by, entropy increases and complex biological systems tend to become less organised and coherent.

      How can you decide whether any of that is due to “Covid” – and if so how much?

      1. JDPatten

        Yes, entropy will get you in the end. Actuarial tables tell us that if you’re now, say, seventy-five years old, you should expect another eleven and a half years.
        Ah, but they don’t consider an infection that could disorganize your biological systems in a matter of weeks.
        It depends on:
        • How you interact with your fellows, some of whom could be invisible infection vectors.
        • How your biological system might or might not be prepared for this novel virus. ??
        • What particular strain your fellow vector might be carrying.
        • Luck
        You could say the same thing about luck in negotiating the highways in your car, but, on the highway, you can see what’s happening and respond accordingly. Control. Most of the time.

        (That’s my three comments for today.)

    2. Jerome Savage

      What aboutery can go on for ever, bit like lockdowns. If a cost benefit analysis were to be carried out, would the actions taken by governments be seen to be counterproductive I.e. – cure worse than the disease ? IMHO – yes, without a doubt.

    3. KJE

      I suspect it’s much the same as the fallout from any viral illness, except the media is taking more notice instead of implying that sufferers of CFS/ME/etc are malingerers with mental health problems as they usually do – will these people be subjected to CBT and GET or will they get better treatment, I wonder

  9. JohnC

    I would argue that your statement “ COVID-19 has impacted the world with massive force, a pandemic beyond anything seen in living memory” is a slight exaggeration, if you consider the flu pandemics in 1958 and 1968, and HIV/AIDS in terms of fatality rates. (The latter 2 are in my living memory whereas the first on is in my lifetime but as I was 2 I wasn’t aware of it)

    1. Joe Dopelle

      As I have frequently observed, I lived through the flu epidemics of 1958 and 1968 (also 1952, which as I recall was the worst). The notable feature of all three was that no one mentioned a “pandemic”, the NHS continued operating as usual (i.e. not very well), and the government kept well out of it. People got ill and some of them died, and life went on.

      A glance at Worldometer shows that over 48 million people have died this year so far worldwide. By the end of the year the death toll will be just about equal to the total population of the UK – 66 million. As I write, the death toll for today alone is approaching 100,000.

      According to Worldometer there have also been:

      1,379,787 Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year
      6,741,021 Deaths caused by cancer this year
      805,091 Deaths caused by malaria this year
      4,103,121 Deaths caused by smoking this year
      2,052,855 Deaths caused by alcohol this year
      880,165 Suicides this year
      1,107,972 Road traffic accident fatalities this year

        1. Joe Dopelle

          Indeed, Jillm, although arguably such campaigns have gone on continuously since the 1960s.

          More startling examples might include trousers, baths, stairs and, of course motor vehicles. Not to mention all fuels without exception and most building materials. Electricity, of course. All substances that can be poisonous in the wrong doses – such as water. Etc, etc.

    2. Martin Back

      By analogy wit the difference between a recession and a depression, an epidemic is when your neighbour gets it; a pandemic is when you get it.

    3. theasdgamer

      Pandemic Derangement Syndrome has certainly impacted the world powerfully and produced many deaths from increased suicides, deferred health care, drug OD’s, etc.

  10. Mark

    “COVID-19 has impacted the world with massive force, a pandemic beyond anything seen in living memory. There has been an unprecedented reaction – some would say an unprecedented over-reaction.”

    Clearly the disease itself is nothing even close to “a pandemic beyond anything seen in living memory”, though the impact of the disease, solely because of the dramatic over-reaction to it, is.

    So far we have a bit over a million deaths, in a population of nearly 8 billion, when estimates for the 1957 and 1968 pandemics seem to be “1-4 million”, in populations of 2.9b and 3.6b respectively.

    Those are very much in living memory, and perhaps if we’d had pcr testing and social media back then we’d have panicked every bit as hard as we currently are doing? Though granted, perhaps we were collectively a bit more hard headed and sensible back then. And we didn’t have the option to get paid to sit at home for months.

    Here’s a question. If we were to judge this current pandemic by the standards and methods available in 1968 (no pcr, less social media hysteria), how many deaths would we actually have attributed to it, and how many to other respiratories? And when would we have said it was over, as an epidemic in this country, and gone back to work? Would any of us even have stopped?

    1. ShirleyKate

      I was around for both those epidemics Mark. I had the 1957 ‘Asian Flu’ myself as a child. In those days the public were not given much information as a matter of policy. We were treated like mushrooms – kept in the dark and fed on you-know-what.

    2. JohnC

      Work continued, schools stayed open. President Johnson had the flu, and I don’t think the 25th amendment was invoked. It even went into moon orbit with an Apollo 8 astronaut.

  11. Irene Dalziel

    I have a friend who’s had a stroke: she’s terrified and alone. Her very loving family are not allowed to see her; it’s affecting their wellbeing too. The misery everyone’s in is terrible to witness. All humanity has disappeared. I’m sickened by these people and their figures. There has to be a balance. The world has gone to hell in a handcart

      1. AhNotepad

        I agree. A friend had to kidnap (that was what the police said it was) his wife from hospital, as the treatment she was given was making her worse, so he took her home and nursed her back to a more healthy state.

  12. Antony Sanderson

    Great review . . . swinging between anger at the seeming arbitrariness of the censorship and optimism at the lowering IFR’s estimates.

  13. JDPatten

    You address death.
    You ignore survivors of severe COVID illness in this posting. The ones who spent weeks in ICU, some ventilated, appropriately or not, and then were sent home with their jobs gone (many because they were no longer able to perform them) are worthy of consideration as well. Some have lungs and other vital organs damaged and scarred and will never again function as before – whatever age they may have been.
    These people are out there. How many? 5% of cases or of infections? .5%, .005? . . . Any idea? These people are still living, however much in pain, and might well be considered the more appropriate business of a general practitioner than what would be appropriate for a coroner. (Ouch!?)
    I’m suggesting, respectfully, that one’s ability to lead one’s remaining span of life with the capacity to function in this society in a reasonably fulfilling way is essential to the society as well as to the individuals concerned and is worthy of as much consideration and caring now, as is the plight of the dead – whatever the numbers.

    The rate of death.
    Early on, when little was known about any aspect of this disease, the elderly died in their numbers. Susceptible in care homes or out in the world, they were without any defense. Now, with more known and with a healthy respect for what the virus can do once the human vector has brought it home, elderly are wary and they are self-protecting and, in the case of care homes, are generally being more carefully and effectively protected.
    Surely this would effect a difference in death rate over these last many months?

    1. David Bailey


      Surely if you want to make a useful point about these people, you have to provide an estimate of the number of COVID damaged people – I suspect this data hasn’t been collected, but is smaller than is often suggested. We know a number of well known people who have presumably recovered completely from COVID – Prince Charles, President Trump, etc, but I am unaware of anyone who has recovered but been left impaired. That is a very crude way of estimating this number, but without offering us any better estimate, your contribution doesn’t sound very useful.

      1. JDPatten

        Long-term complications in the recovery from COVID-19 are well documented by the patients themselves and even taken for granted by front-line care-givers.
        A smattering of info for ya:

        I know. It’s hard. But if you study this, you see that the question has been given some long and hard thought. But it ain’t over yet!

  14. johnplatinumgoss

    “This is an area where the science is clearly not yet settled.” To me the case fatality rate can be what it is, because there are so many illnesses, all potential killers it does not do me any good to concern myself about what the CFR for Covid-19 is, or any of the other potential killers, unless I get one of them. Then I would be concerned.

    However, I have no intention of losing any sleep based on what Matt Hancock and the like say.

    I study aspects of this planned viral destruction of the fabric of society because I cannot write authoritatively against it without doing so. In other words I’ve had to study something in which I have no real interest other than to debunk the nonsense we are being asked to believe.

  15. Jeremy May

    Not sure if my previous little post which said ‘idiot’ has been modded out. If it does appear it referred to Doug and his grammar nitpick, not Dr Kendrick. However it is typical of diversionary comment apparently intended to switch emphasis from the main point. The national news is awash with free meals, teddy bears, redundancies etc. instead of a discussion that really matters. People see tabloid headlines, listen to the BBC and it’s gospel. I put up links for people to read, this link being one, Dr Mike Yeadon’s ‘What SAGE has got wrong’ another. I ask that if there was no testing, would the country be in blind panic over death rates and hospital admissions. Of course not. But I’m called a covidiot and a conspiracy theorist by my friends. How do we make people take time to look at real alternatives?
    In the supermarket today I overheard a man ask another why he wasn’t wearing a mask. The reply. ‘I don’t speak English.’ Which just about summed it all up.

      1. Jeremy May

        Quite right too. Apologies.
        Due to one of the symptoms of covid – frustration.

        Does anyone know where we can find a proper breakdown of recorded deaths?
        ‘Within 28 days of a positive test’ is a touch vague. Age range, comorbidities etc. would help.

        1. robertL

          Jeremy May,
          Does anyone know where we can find a proper breakdown of recorded deaths?

          Try researching Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor


        2. Fiona Ferris

          On the travelling tabby website – in the Scottish section, the daily deaths are divided into age groups. Nothing about comorbidities but it’s still helpful. For example today there are 24 reported deaths. Five are in 85+, Nine are in 75-85, Seven are 65-75, and Three are 45-65. Only the Scottish figures are broken down like this. I highly recommend the site as a huge source of accurate statistics and it is updated daily. It’s run by an individual as a project.

    1. Ken Garoo

      “In the supermarket today I overheard a man ask another why he wasn’t wearing a mask.”

      The man who asked, and the shop in which it happened have opened themselves up to civil action (as covered by the Equality Act 2010) with fines up to £5000 or £9000.

      Law or Fiction is your friend.

  16. David j Winter

    Thank you for your usual lucid comments. Rather scary that like a lot of things in society generally, other opinions apart from “establishment in all its forms” resents
    opposing representations. You are always open minded and confirm your theories with facts and figures gleaned from authoritative sources. Rock on.
    What is most/more disturbing about this disease (apart from the huge loss of life) is the “long Covid” manifestation. I am not aware of the figures but my guess would be for every death there are thousands struck down with the debilitating long haul of fatigue and a general feeling of malaise with their lungs struggling to support the oxygen requirements of their bodies. In turn I would imagine their cardiovascular system becomes compromised with the work load.
    The forgotten aftermath.

    1. Anthony Oliver

      ” I am not aware of the figures but my guess…” That’s the problem in a nutshell, guessing and imagining what might be rather than establishing what is. Neil Fergusson’s model is pure guesswork and it’s led us to where we are today.

    2. JustSaying

      For every road accident death there are dozens of long-term injuries (and we don’t ban cars). Some people have long-term symptoms after flu. Obsessive, selective media coverage is giving people a very distorted idea of risk with their focus on “long COVID”, while “long car accident” or “long flu”, which can be just as nasty, don’t feature at all.

      1. Jean Humphreys

        I have a daughter who had the bad luck to get glandular fever towards the start of her degree course. She took time off, but when she went back, was not coping, and eventually had to abandon the course, due to fatigue and brain fog. She has negotiated herself into a satisfactory job that suits her well and keeps her, but to a mother’s eye, she is still not quite the bouncy person she once was, and I suspect this will not change now. So Long Covid is nothing new, and many infections carry a long tail of effects which can be life changing.

    3. Jerome Savage

      “Long statin”- side effects can last for some time after shaking off that dangerous habit – and you pay for the privilege.
      And we might add “long prescription”. The Harvard study from 2014 comes to mind but I suppose that study primarily deals with deaths caused by prescriptions, hundreds of thousands and not long term side effects. Just sayin.

  17. Jerome Savage

    Apologies in advance & slightly off topic, but are there noticeably fewer men wearing paranoia masks outdoors than women ? I suggest the ratio is about 3 to 1 and in itself is interesting.

    1. janetgrovesart

      Jerome – I regret to have to say this but I fear that among younger women the mask has become something of a fashion statement – a different one for every outfit. A bit sad really.

        1. KJE

          But if they are young, they are not at risk anyway (more so from flu), so if they want to discriminate against the hearing impaired (as all mask wearers do). let them, until someone calls them out under the Equalities Act

          1. AhNotepad

            They are more at risk from the contaminants that accumulate on the mask. I know hospital staff who have oral thrush and mouth ulcers.

          2. KJE

            If they want to risk facial staph infections, that’s their call too, if they want to make a fashion statement

        2. Joe Dopelle

          “The Year of Disguises” by Roger W. Koops

          Don’t be put off by the apparently superficial photo and title. This is probably the best analysis of the pros and cons of mask wearing I have yet seen – and I have read a lot. The author has a PhD in organic chemistry – something I would have put up front, were I the author or editor – and has very serious personal experience with masks. Namely:

          “The photo below was taken about 30 years ago, and yes, that is me. I was being fit tested for my own respirator. In my first position after the Ph.D., I was given charge of developing a molecule that was so lethal (yes, it is used medicinally but in very dilute solutions and under strict controls) that even the tiniest of amount contacting my skin, nose, eyes, etc., could knock me out and kill without my ever knowing it; the risks I faced were far greater than any coronavirus. I had to undergo serious Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) training as a result. When your life hangs in the balance, you learn all that you can. I was also a member of an isolator design team to develop a manufacturing unit to contain the production process”.

          1. Peter Swettenham

            Is there anyone on this thread that is able to commend this excellent article to SAGE and Hancock?

    2. KJE

      Must be area specific then, as I see more older women without masks than men of any age. About equal numbers with masks below nose, though. More men with comedy masks

  18. KJE

    I very much doubt that is it is easily possible to tell sars-cov-2 from other flu-like illnesses, so we don’t really know if the deaths are from cv19 or other types of flu and pneumonia – esp not at this time of year.

      1. KJE

        Suggests that everyone with flu is told they have CV19 or no one is going to the doctor – which I can well believe in the UK as many surgeries aren’t open or are only doing phone appts. No idea how it works in the USA. Of course many colds and flu-like illnesses are caught on public transport and at work – we are told not to use public transport and many people are now out of work, so fewer places to catch things. No benefit for most people in getting a sick note either so I suspect they aren’t telling anyone if they can disguise it or work from home

  19. Ken Garoo

    This reminds me of political events following the 911 incident.

    Journalist Ron Suskind repeorted on a conversation with an aide to GW Bush:

    “The aide said that guys like me were ‘in what we call the reality-based community,’ which he defined as people who ‘believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality. … That’s not the way the world really works anymore. We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors … and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do’.”

    It also ties in with the so-called post-truth era we supposedly live in, where ‘facts’ are deemed into existence.

  20. Mike Smith

    Even though the actual “Death” figure itself is over inflated and highly ambiguous anyway from death certificates showing that the 89 year old Stage 4 cancer patient died “with” covid as a covid death. Or perhaps the upcoming 10,000+ flu deaths over this winter which are now being classified as covid deaths.

    When good science and good data is thrown out of the window and our MPs labelling any of the sane people as crackpots and conspiracy theorists then just about anything goes now.

    Wasn’t Noah a conspiracy theorist up until the rains came ?

      1. Frango Asado

        God gave us brains with which to think. Perhaps the statement that God actually warned Noah is metaphorical, like so much of the Bible. Couldn’t he have worked it out for himself?

  21. vforv

    For an accurate estimate of the IFR – even its actual value – we would need real-time and accurate data. Which is hardly present in almost all the statistics that most countries provide. Sure, there are some clever ways to extrapolate those statistics, but they would never be bang-on.
    On an aside note, for reasons that I can’t explain – call them ”gut feelings”, nothing scientific about them – I am more convinced than ever that the great MI and otherwise CVD ”epidemics” of the past were all caused by a virus, most probably a coronavirus.
    I mention that because I recently had this „new” SARS, one of the easiest forms, and I think what got me past it was either the relative ”immunity” obtained as a result of my previous MI (December 2009), or Clopidogrel – which I still take one per day.

  22. peter downey

    Excellent as always, Doc. Professor John Ioannidis is indeed a man to be listened to. But I do think he has a blind spot regarding hydroxychloroquine.

        1. Harry de Boer

          Someone who doesn’t believe in credentials and authority arguments, nor in exposing himself to on- and then off-line bullying?

          1. Peter Downey

            Hi, Harry. Do you ever wish you had never asked a question? Gosh and here I am again, asking one.

  23. Alan Tillotson

    So, the United States has 212,000 deaths – if we drop that to 150,000 and use the 1 in a thousand idea, that would mean 150 million people in the US have been infected, a bit less than half the population? How do you explain the high US death toll?

  24. Martin Back

    This is one graph out of a thread with many different ways of looking at the same data. Note that Sweden has done comparatively badly as regards Covid mortality. It turns out, our present pandemic is hardly a blip in a trend of declining death rates, and if you remove the effect of having an older population there’s not even a blip (see further down).

    I think it says something about humanity as it is now that we cannot accept what generations past had to accept, namely that sometimes bad things happen, and you have to soldier on without running around screaming that the sky is falling.

    1. anna m


      Why do you say Sweden has done badly? When I looked at it recently their deaths were no higher than most countries. it was higher than Norway and Finland, but perhaps they should not only be compared to those geographically closest? It seems like a tactic for the media to not lose face over the fact that the lockdowns appear to have been of no real use. There are various factors that contribute to death rates.

  25. Lucy

    The Spanish Inquisition ruled on the law, they didn’t make laws. They never shut down any debate because that wasn’t their job. The Inquisition was run by lawyers, they looked for evidence, mostly of sedition against the government, but also they looked for witchcraft. They found no evidence for witch craft. Spain had no witch hunts. The Spanish Inquisition court was better than the regular court of it’s day. Spain is still going through all the records in Spain on the inquisition.The current history on the Spanish Inquisition is largely a fabrication/propaganda put out by the English. BBC series from 1994 on the Spanish Inquisition. I am a little mistified that Dr. Kendrick has done so much to look at heart disease as a disease of the endothelium, but covid 19 is also a disease of the endothelium. Death rates aren’t the only thing to be considered. John Iaonnaides is not an infectious disease specialist. So never go to a doctor for history, go to a historian. Don’t go to a statistician/scientist for infectious disease advice. Dr. Iaonnaides has valuable input, but it’s just that input. The Dunning Kruger effect never rests.

  26. Dr No

    Quis custodiet ipsos custodes – who fact checks the fact checkers? Dr No came across some of these loons making claims about what Mullis (developer of the infamous RT-PCR test) did and didn’t say about using RT-PCR for diagnosis and sure enough the fact checkers got the wrong end of the stick. Full post here:

    Many fact checkers are just another branch of the thought police, and are just as dangerous. Uncertainty, inquiry, debate are the drivers and engines of scientific progress; shutting down ‘heretic’ views is anathema to good science. We need to hear the different views, and weigh them by the evidence, not preconceived notions of settled science. Just as importantly, as you commendably do in this post, we need to be quite clear eyed about saying we don’t know when we don’t.

    1. Jerome Savage

      A response made to the Karry Mullis assertion that the test was not suitable implied that testing had moved on since then and also that there may be a different type of test in the game. I am not in any position to comment on that response but my doubts arise from the fact that initially and throughout Google, the fact (FACT) that he said that is denied repeatedly, which calls in to doubt the motivations of the fact feckers – sorry fact checkers.

      1. Joe Dopelle

        “A response made to the Karry Mullis assertion that the test was not suitable implied that testing had moved on since then and also that there may be a different type of test in the game”.

        Inasmuch as the test being used is still PCR, that response was incorrect. PCR is, in principle, immensely simple. First, if necessary, you copy RNA to the corresponding DNA. Then you induce the DNA to duplicate itself over and over: the amount increases by 1,024 times every 10 doublings. Then you compare the resulting relatively large amount of DNA to whatever fragments you have chosen to represent the “target” (in this case the SARS-COV-2 virus).

        The pitfalls are:

        1. Copying RNA to DNA is intrinsically unreliable – far less reliable than the DNA duplication on which all life is based.

        2. If you employ more than 30 or so cycles of duplication, you may unintentionally “magnify” tiny traces of all kinds of impurities that were present in the sample. (Such as different viral fragments, or even RNA naturally created by the human cell itself).

        3. Even if everything has gone perfectly so far – which there is no way of knowing – the final stage is a crusher. How can we be certain that a match with the particular RNA fragments chosen by the testers proves that the sample actually contains SARS-COV-2 virus? The fragments are relatively tiny, and may overlap substantially with other virus material or human RNA.

        These would be among the reasons why Kary Mullis, the inventor of PCR, warned that it was completely unsuitable (useless, in fact) for diagnostic purposes.

        1. Jerome Savage

          Joe – truly appreciate your response. Feel I am getting closer to an understanding. It gives me more to chew on, trouble is, chewing on this, as my late mother might say- “means I wouldn’t get a thing done about the house nor a child washed” Sorry I digress but its fascinating & a good rabbit hole.

        2. Eggs’n beer

          Nice analysis. I’m reminded of an H L Mencken quote:

          “To every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.”

    1. Rosie

      Isn’t it the case now that if something is censored / deleted on social media you can be sure that’s because it’s the truth!! Paradoxically ‘these ‘fact chuckers’ are confirming truth in their own upside down way!!!

      1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

        Can you?
        Associations with 5g are censored but is that because 5g is considered so vital to the next step in the control agenda that nothing – bar nothing can be allowed to impede it – regardless any possible effect that may or may not contribute to a degradation of health in some or many.

        But if something is censored it may point to some sort of hidden bias or agenda, and operate a negative conditioning. However, this can also be used to generate and ‘opposition’ that can be nurtured and brought out later as another narrative leverage.

        Rachael Carson’s book, Silent Spring came out of Rockefeller backed institution and avoided the direct effect of pesticides and herbicides on human beings (and there is such a history to this day), this was considered a seminal work in growing an environmental movement that nowadays (generally) considered Nature a weak and bankable victim, and humans a virus on the planet.

        Those with the ‘most to lose’ and the means to protect it look into the future and hedge all bets.
        Everything has to be carefully considered in it context – and if that context is an emotionally invested or establishment protected narrative, then ‘truth’ includes the use of story and emotional investment as leveraging by stealth and guile.

        The ability to maintain control by force depends on community support. I don’t support the narrative for lockdowns and biosecurity states, enslavement and retrogression of human beings as ‘stock’, data or resources for genetic experimentation. Yet I see that under fear, these ends are being established by consent.

        I don’t engage in relationship with open and obvious deceits – such as fact checking sites, and other controlled assets or hapless proxies to deceit.

        1. anna m


          This has been the biggest source of sorrow to me throughout all this, as I watch it unfold I see that this new control state can succeed only because large numbers of people buy into it and in fact like it. That means that our American experiment in elevating the principle of freedom is lost on many people as it doesn’t particularly suit them.

          1. Binra (@onemindinmany)


            While it may sound trite, the fact I see is that we each carry deeply set expectations, wishes or desires for our life, that are not obvious until they are disappointed, lost or ‘broken’, as a broken life.

            I often refer to these as patterns arising from (personal and collective) separation trauma, and by any number of other ways of looking, but in the illusion of them, we ‘sleep’ in an illusion of freedom. Not unlike a seed in its husk or a embryo in the egg or womb.
            The breaking an illusion or masking persona of the self and world is built into the human experience simply because illusion is a temporary bias that cannot be forever maintained.

            My first response was to say that our world is predicated on an illusion of freedom, but I paused to offer some context. The term illusion can be used merely to invalidate or deny, and the claim of the right to invalidate or deny another’s illusion, is the basis of our own as ‘closer to truth’ in a realm of judgement that can also be called ‘self-will’ set in conflict as a bias upon a true and total state of communication (or life)…
            for the full post:


            …What can replace recognition of truth but illusion passing off as true – in the mind that (so) chooses by focusing in its currently accepted desire?

  27. Texas Reader

    I have several friends who coach at a major college here in Texas. They tell me they are seeing cases of athletes with CV19 having myocarditis, which makes the college force them to rest for 6 months and stop all athletics/training ou of an abundance of caution. The athletes feel fine, and may have no or very mild cv19 symptoms, but have myocarditis. Haven’t seen this spoken about much, but the little I have seen online indicates it is probably a very common side effect of cv19.

    So not just a cse of worrying about fatalities. It’s also important to track and treat more subtle damage that could hurt people for years to come.

    1. AhNotepad

      The test for rona virus is notoriously unreliable, and a large number of test results give a positive result for healthy persons, or even for no person at all, where the swabs in a home test kit have been returned as having been used, and give a positive result, when they haven’t been used at all. Athletes often seem to have issues with damage to their bodies caused by excessive exercising, so a lot more data are needed before drawing a conclusion.

    2. robertL

      Texas Reader,
      I have seen another comment on another site that many infected people have very low Vit C (as it is busy protecting the lungs from a cytokine storm). We know from Linus Pauling and our very own good dr. 😀. that Vit C is critical for the integrity of the endothelium (tight junctions). I can only assume that these 2 aspects are related. And perhaps related to your athletes.

  28. JDPatten

    Yes, David,
    ‘Rather scary that like a lot of things in society generally, other opinions apart from “establishment in all its forms” resents
    opposing representations.’

    There seems to be a very tight “establishment” right here in this comment community.

    1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

      Perhaps the sense of being betrayed and lied to generates a hasty refusal of others beating the same drum or on the same sore points.

      There are those who for their own reasons actively WANT the fear agenda to be justified.
      There are others who do not WANT it – unless such alarm can be demonstrated genuine AND the call to action be sane, proportionate and deeply and widely considered.

      If you give priority to any potential threat and assign it funding and attention over all else, we can ‘discover’ ever more strands to its story. If doing so is a reinforcement of our own masking identity, social status, funding, career or sense of self-worth, then we have a conflict of interest that may be running beneath our own conscious attention yet clearly visible to others or to any study of our behaviours.

      While a few get emotional in reaction here at times, I’d say this is a very tolerant comment forum.

      The medical fact as to what is or is not going on may be in question, but no one denies clinical conditions are occurring, and that any incidence of disease can have ongoing effects or represent a chronic lack of health for a variety of reasons. But the reaction to the last – and this coming season of respiratory disease under the umbrella of Covid-19, is far far more definitely threatening to life and liberty than any medical condition in living history outside world war. This point doesn’t register with those who come across to me as covid fanatics. For they have found the purpose and the meaning of their life in its ‘war’. But who exactly is being flattened and controlled?

      I see a sense of certainty being given more priority that anything to do with truth. Such that if it feeds such a sense of certainty it is woven into ‘officially asserted and enforced truth’.
      How dangerous is covid-19? This depends on whether we see it as part of the way people die every year, or whether we see it as a leverage to gain and maintain control over the living, under pretext of ‘making us safe’.

      The urgent need I see is to withdraw support for the lockdowning ‘virus controlling’ reaction that runs like an inflammation in the body politic. Apologists may concede it could have been proportionate back at the beginning. I do not. But it is either a suicidal reaction now – or delivering those seeking protection to the ‘Morlocks’.
      (Referring the H.G Wells anticipation of a predator class).

        1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

          I discern a difference between a fear driven reaction (or a fear masking action), and the peace of a calm and clear relational appreciation. A doctor may tell you that you are going to die, but what you then choose to do is your human decision and not a medical dictate. Now that ‘Doctor WHO’ tells us we are going to kill others – regardless our clinical condition, we are being guilted and bullied to effectively kill our Economy – or life support system.
          So while I hold the view that lockdowns are unhelpful and destructive (apart from as a means to condition new normals of surveillance, compliance and enforcement), I am by no means certain that those who WANT such a world will accept freedom or responsibility for themselves or extend it to others.

          ‘Certainty’ as I see it is a truly or wholly aligned decision – and not an imposition of one over another. Unified purpose is ‘healing’ for it releases the inflammatory cycle.
          I am certain that the willing or conscious leveraging of fear, for the purpose of gaining or consolidating control, has brought up or exposed the nature OF fear and control.

          This means I stand back from engaging in polarised ‘certainties’ or identities, and look at what is being revealed …

          …This post continues on:

          see #4 at the bottom of the page.

    1. AhNotepad

      mike valance, at least explain what is meant by your question. On its own it is meaningless, and it would be helpful if you wrote your own words as to what you were after, rather than just quoting a lump, including a reference link, that means people have to go and a load of work before being able to answer.

  29. Paul Arnold

    I have come to value your observations and frequently pass them along to friends. Stay the course, please. ~pfa

    On Mon, Oct 26, 2020 at 8:43 AM Dr. Malcolm Kendrick wrote:

    > Dr. Malcolm Kendrick posted: “26th October 2020 [What is the true > Infection Fatality Rate] This article appeared in Russia Today > I have > made a couple of small changes to it Facebook fact checkers censured me, ” >

  30. Darko Mulej (@DarkoMulej)

    Very good, as per usual.
    But the elephant in the room right now is the second wave in Europe. Is it real or is it blown out of proportions?
    One possibility is that total mortality remains in normal range – for last available week 42 (12.10.2020 – 18.10.2020) shows meduim to high excess for Spain and low excess for Belgium: all other countries are in normal range (euromomo does not follow all European countries).
    What is very disturbing at this stage is that so many countries has mandated lockdowns without any real discussion, for example about cost benefit analysis (could be cure = lockdown worse than disease) and exit strategy (shall we live in this dystopian world indefenitely?).
    The irony is it will be ease for politicans in any case to claim that lockdown works: sooner or later infections will begin to decline, lockdown or not.

    1. Harry de Boer

      We know that RNA remnants from a destroyed SARS-CoV-2 virus can remain for months in the body and can trigger a positive on the PCR test, especially with the insanely high Ct values used.
      We also see that there are almost no more cases of flu reported.
      My take is that people dying from (another) flu are tested for covid-19, get a false positive and are reported as having died FROM covid, not ‘after’.

    1. AhNotepad

      Well, well, well. Now why exclude data from the Diamond Princess? Probably one of the most important sources for information, as it was a relatively closed community of people who would be classed as vulnerable.

  31. Janice Willoughby

    This is very helpful for all of us who are old enough to have been designated higher risk; and also – the double whammy:- categorized as ” comorbidity-present”.

    You have done much to address the fears (that many others have encouraged), by your posting on the quality research and observations that have been done, most of which typically tend to reassure rather than frighten.

    Thank you very much, Dr. Kendrick.

    P.S. This is my first comment here; I trust you to keep my email secure.

  32. cdandre2010

    Whose checking the fact checkers at Facebook? Are they comprised of qualified virologists? Do they understand the difference between CFR and IFR?

    I wonder if they bothered to fact check deaths as being “with covid” or “because of covid”?

    Perhaps they should start fact checking at the morgue!

    1. Joe Dopelle

      “Whose checking the fact checkers at Facebook?”

      Presumably those who pay them.

      Remember the Golden Rule? “Them that has the gold makes the rules”.

  33. Andy

    This is interesting as the fact checkers are often not only potentially people but also AI based algorithms. The way Facebook has allowed various nonsensical non scientific and often dangerous ideas not only to be published on the platform but actually targeted and focussed toward people who read and believe them is one of the biggest factors in some of the most worrying aspects of our current world. So on the one hand fact checking that can stop propagating nonsense like “Hillary Clinton feeds on the blood of children”or that “Covid doesn’t actually exist” is something that needs to happen. But what you describe seems to be a problem where a balanced view of the available data based on review, some discussion and challenge is censored in the same way as the patently bonkers stuff. I read your blog and I would never put you in the camp that should be censored by Facebook or refused access to the BBC. I just see somebody trying to make sense of our current problem ( COVID) with some level of expertise and a challenging mind. The problem seems to be that in publishing on RT you allow the familiar criticisms of using a foreign backed propaganda machine and in using Facebook you are facing a fact checking process that can censor patently sensible debate and facts ( or estimates). How do we get some sort of adult rational discussion going where all sides of a debate can be discussed. I really don’t know where to go for true balance and as a result I just tune out and try and keep sane by trying to avoid the 24 hour COVID panic. The Sunday times deep dive in to what actually happened to older patients and nursing home residents due to deliberate policy did get some attention over the weekend but it was basically pretty much what you have been saying and obviously witnessing for months. Why can’t we have the truth or at least the ability to ask the right questions as we go through the crisis rather than in retrospect. Why is our mainstream media letting us down so badly?

    1. Norman

      I wish I knew where Dr Kendrick could go to get published. I definitely don’t think RT is a good idea for obvious reasons stated in the past.

      The Spectator? They’ve had some good articles.

      The Atlantic? Prospect? Clutching at straws maybe but they sometimes excel in what appears in their pages.

      I subscribe to Private Eye but I think the coverage written by MD, i.e. Dr Phil Hammond has been only moderately good. Far better of course than R4 ‘news bulletins’ from the Biased Broadcasting Corpn.

      Prof. Bhattacharya of Stanford had a recent 25 min interview on YT. If I got it right, he thinks that the IFR is likely to be lower than flu for the under-60s, considerably worse for over-70s let alone over-80s and for my age group of 60-70 somewhere in between. If it’s lower than flu for the people of ‘working age’ who run the country, doesn’t it make a risk segmentation approach easier?

      1. Steve

        Norman. I’m not a Russian troll, (you’ll have to take my word for that), but I don’t understand why people consider publishing on RT as an issue. ‘If’ you believe in free speech then you’d support various news feeds where ever they are from, ‘if’ you wish to get a balanced view of the news. Whether RT has links with the Russian Government isn’t an issue, IMO, as most MSM sources have either explicit or implicit links with their governments and their sponsors.
        In my opinion Private Eye is a bit of an establishment organ, although they pretend not to be …
        We need to support the free and unadulterated publication of all views and all news sources, regardless of how distasteful some might be. At the moment RT is publishing more news than the MSM rags, so good on it.

        1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

          Currently I am working on the basis that a: I suggest what article I want to write b: Russia Today has accepted all of my suggestions c: There has been no editing of the message.

          To be fully accurate a couple of topics were suggested to me, which I turned down. They were not things I had enough knowledge about to write anything useful.

          So far, therefore, they just seem to be happy to publish what I write.

          1. Frango Asado

            “So far, therefore, they just seem to be happy to publish what I write”.

            As well they might be.

            One thing the world desperately needs is more such writing by people who talk about what they know, avoid topics they don’t understand so well, and explain complicated matters clearly and dispassionately.

      2. Frango Asado

        I completely agree with Steve. To most Westerners who still believe what the mainstream media tell them, RT seems like a Russian government operation if only because it so often flatly contradicts what the Western MSM say.

        But that’s mostly because the Western MSM tell so many lies, and distort issues in more subtle ways.

        Thus when RT tells the truth, people tend to think it must be Russian propaganda.

        I suspect that, if Mr Putin were to say “Two plus two equals four”, many Westerners would cease to believe in basic arithmetic.

    2. Martin Back

      I would imagine fact-checking on Facebook works much like they check for abusive or offensive content.

      Hired personnel get shown items chosen by algorithm or reported by Facebook users. They get thirty seconds to skim the content and make a judgement according to a checklist, then the next screen pops up and the process repeats.

      It’s most certainly not the considered opinion of an experienced professional.

    3. KJE

      I don’t see why anything that is not illegal needs to be censored. {perhaps Clinton is a vampire – can’t say I care one way or the other). I don’t see why things, however barking they may seem, can’t be debated. You can always choose not to take part. Just like scary stories round the camp fire or Mary Whitehouse trying to stop nudity on TV – there’s an off button

    4. DaveL

      What’s the difference between a foreign backed propaganda machine and a domestic propaganda machine? Russia has plenty of flaws, but it’s portrayed in the West as the bogeyman. You may have a point in that people tend to invoke the fallacy of not believing a thing solely because of its source. Most in the West, especially in the US and UK, have been conditioned to suspect anything Russian from when they were little. I had the luck of getting to live there for almost 5 years, which was long enough to realize it’s not populated by little Khrushchev clones. Anyway, glad to still have RT Today available, and glad Dr Kendrick publishes on it, although I am afraid the censorship people will probably block it off one of these days.

  34. Eric

    I think we are still missing a piece of the puzzle:

    If the CFR is 0.1%, the IFR is going to be smaller yet. Let’s be conservative and assume 0.05%.

    The UK has sadly recorded 45,088 deaths so far (I know, some of these will have been run over by a bus on the way back from testing or were terminal cancer patients). So dividing this number by the assumed CFR of 0.05%, we have 90 million infected, way more than the population.

    So the UK should already be way beyond herd immunity. What is driving the current rise in infections, hospitalizations and deaths?

    Three answers come to mind:
    – the CFR and IFR are higher
    – reinfections with severe illness are possible and rather common
    – the initial wave got to the vulnerable preferentially–> this is why we need to know who is getting very sick today!

    Apparently, this is not so easy:

    1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

      We are definitely missing things. I have never seen such incomprehensible data before. The rates in various countries make no obvious sense. Overall mortality rates bound all over the place. We do not know if having Covid-19 written on a death certificate means anything at all – with regard to what the person actually died of. There are enormous political games being played with the data, from all directions. Clearly there are powerful people, and very powerful players in the game, with very clear agendas to talk up this ‘pandemic’ as much as possible. Many of these players have disturbing levels of control over the media, and the entire medical research establishment, and can censor alternative views. it is all very worrying.

      1. Joe Dopelle

        “I have never seen such incomprehensible data before”.

        Well, of course.

        Start with an alleged “new” virus which many qualified experts do not believe necessarily exists at all. Add a standard test (PCR) which certainly has a significant false positive rate under the best of conditions, which is usually carried out in very imperfect conditions by untrained people, and whose inventor clearly stated that it was unsuitable for use as a diagnostic test. Continue with the lack of unique signs and symptoms by which the alleged disease could be differentiated from other respiratory infections. Consider that immunity may be conferred by having had a cold. And on and on and on…

        To my mind, the chaos we are living through is what can be expected when politicians and business entrepreneurs arrogate to themselves the right to make medical diagnoses and prescriptions.

        Just imagine a world in which a qualified and experienced medical doctor is legally forbidden to prescribe the medicines and treatments which he deems best for his own patients, and instead to do as the government bids him or her. (Obviously Dr Kendrick himself doesn’t need to imagine that, as he has been living it for most of this year).

        1. Eric

          Which test are you talking about and who is the inventor?

          To my knowledge, the original version of the current PCR test for Covid 19 was invented by Prof. Drosten, and he’s certainly not saying it shouldn’t be used as a diagnostic test. There are several validated versions of the test in Europe, all of which test for at least two targets (either immediately or in a second essay after the first target was positive). The false positive rate of dual target tests is << 0.1%.

          1. Joe Dopelle

            Eric, I was referring to PCR and the inventor was Kary Mullis (who won the Nobel Prize in 1993 for that invention).

            I had never heard of Professor Drosten until you mentioned his name just now. I gather he tweaked PCR to detect SARS-COV-2 (if such a distinct virus exists).

            Think of Mullis as analogous to Alan Turing, who invented the electronic computer; and Drosten as more like the people at Apple who dress up computers in shiny cases to help people socialise at a distance.

          2. Harry de Boer

            @Jerome Savage I can recommend you this podcast in which Michael Mina speaks out his mind about testing:
            What I can make of it is that if you want to test if someone has just been infected and is already detectable but not yet infectious, which would be the ideal combination of factors to catch if you want to stop people from infecting others, then that window lasts for merely a few hours.
            So it’s sheer impossible, or has a very low probability, to catch such a person in time.
            When they are sick their Ct varies from 8 to about 23, but by then they’ll probably know it themselves already. High Ct values, allegedly to catch someone ‘before he is infectious’, both detect people who are sick, and people who are not sick anymore.
            Of course, at a later time in the epidemic many people have had it and therefore their share is getting bigger and bigger: rising ‘cases’.

            To be complete, what he suggests is a test with a lower Ct, or sensitivity, which costs $1 (it can be printed on paper, like a pregnancy test) and can be done every morning. If positive people can stay home.

            And regarding those ‘confirmed cases’. I don’t understand why they are not confirmed by IgG/IgM tests.

          3. AhNotepad

            Harry, that’s a bit odd for you. Why shoukld a test which indicates an infection be assumed to be a precursor of symptoms developing? If the person has innate immunity, that’s just yet another dead end for the virus.

          4. Bev

            As I remember it, PCR is not actually a ‘test’ for COVID. It’s a method of amplifying a small amount of DNA or RNA up to a sufficiently large quantity so that there’s enough to do an actual test on. It’s invention/development by Kary Mullis is documented in the book, ‘Neanderthal Man’ by Svante Paabo, which I read a couple of years ago. Small amounts of Neanderthal DNA in ancient bones were not large enough to work with and the PCR was developed to increase the amount available. I’ve seen it quoted that he actually said it wasn’t a definitive test for COVID, yet he died in August 2019, before COVID appeared.

          5. JohnC

            This may be of interest
            Briefly it appears to show that if a person tests positive after 32 or less cycles then they are likely infectious. Any positive result needing more than 32 cycles is not infectious.
            Personally I would take the view of 34 or more cycles as being not infectious. With the current 40+ cycles there’s an awful lot of people who are being considered infectious when they aren’t and being told to self isolate.
            I would be concerned about quality control and calibration in these testing laboratories.

          6. Binra (@onemindinmany)

            I would love to see biological human studies proving infection rather than tracing epidemiological tracks.
            Not the possibility of believed infection but the kind of tests carried out in the USA in 1918.
            That failed to infect any healthy volunteers with matters and proximity from the very sick.

            I also note that this virus cant be cultured in human cells, but if you take some and starve and poison them, adding the covid-19 culture (?) shows marked degradation of the cells – ie ‘call it infection’.
            (I expect that current human thinking is misguided, and self-serving a limiting sense of self and life).

            I read recently that for vax testing purposes a company needed volunteers to be infected with covid-19.
            What they did not say was how that would be effected.
            I very strongly suspect it would be injected.
            Does anyone know?

            Sperm cells can be said to hijack an egg to replicate, but while some people get pregnant at the drop of a hat or trousers or whatever, many don’t seem to be susceptible. Males are immune – but generally highly infectious…
            We of course know that pregnancy – for all its challenging symptoms and experience – is a procreative and positive process in support of life – even if not everyone survives it. I think we could know that a disease process can also be seen as a health condition in need of conditions of support. But everything comes down to assertive fear and control vs relational acceptance and responsibility at the level of trusting our being. My sense of ‘spiritual’ has nothing to do with ‘added identity beliefs’ but transparency of mind to our being or indeed the heart of honesty.

          7. AhNotepad

            It seems Drosten has credibility problems outlined on ukcolumn 28/10/20 broadcast. He apparently invented the test on New Year’s Day, before any material was available to test. A bit of an Edward Jenner perhaps.

          8. JohnC

            The following article describes the setting up of a new test facility

            The article refers to two machines that will be used.
            Looking on the manufacturer’s website the document describing on of the machines is clearly marked for “research use only. Not to be used for diagnostic purposes”
            I also looked at this document
   which also states it’s a qualitative test.
            This document also gives the number of cycles at each temperature, with instructions to do the fluorescence assay in the last of the highest temperature band. The number of cycles in this higher temperature is 45.
            The tiering system is based on the output from these machines and no one bats an eyelid.

          9. Jerome Savage

            That’s something to look forward to. In the meantime, what is of interest is whether or not the type of test now being used, that is the test that is putting the world in reverse is up to it. In accounting terms, does it present a true & fair view of the subjects condition vv corona Virus ?
            It appears not.

          10. Eric

            @ Joe: Did you actually read the Heise article or just skim the google translation? He published his thesis in English in three peer reviewed articles and defended it. He voluntarily provided a German printed version to the University of Frankfurt. Since he had already fulfilled the publication requirements with the journal articles, the university library did not catalogue the hardcopies and stored them in a basement where they became waterlogged. Due to popular demand, they scanned the least damaged copy, printed four copies, two of which went to their shelves and two others to the national library.

            Frankly, in those days before PDF online versions, that was the normal thing. I had to provide 20 hardcopies to my university library who was supposed to pass copies to other libraries. Never checked if that happened.

            @ah: The test was developed based on an existing SARs test and the genome of the novel virus that the Chinese had already published in late December. That was enough for them to define test target sequences:

          11. AhNotepad.

            Eric, those are your words. What I said was ukcolumn outlined Drosten’s credibility problem. You will have to listen to the 28th Oct broadcast.

          12. Eric

            @ah: Are you trying to say I said that Drosten invented the Covid19 test on Dec 31st? I didn’t say that! I have also been unable to find the podcast dated Oct 28th you are referring to. Would you kindly provide a link?

            Just to make the factual basis clear: these days, one can design a test as soon as partial genomes are available. One will still need to validate a test on actual samples. I think it is deplorable that some are trying to construct a credibility problem based on purposeful misstating of facts. That is not necessarily you but maybe some of the sources you are referring to.

          13. AhNotepad

            I said what I said. Sometimes I get things wrong, but I write something, read through it, and make sure it is what I intended, and I wrote about Drosten’s credibility. Here is a link,; Make up your own mind, that saves second guessing.

          14. Harry de Boer

            @AhNotepad “If the person has innate immunity…”
            Yes, true, but the innate immunity can be overwhelmed and you *can get infected and sick.
            His point (I hope you listened to the podcast) is that in case you’re infected by a viral load that was too high for you innate immune system to get rid of, you’re in the phase where the virus load increases by the hour and you are an asymptomatic ‘spreader’.
            A test which is not so sensitive that it will detect all past cases (Ct>33 or so) and that can be done each morning by yourself for US$1, could keep the infective people at home. In isolation or in a well ventilated room.
            Then they won’t unknowingly spread the virus at work or during their trip to work with public transport and this will bring down R0 significantly, is his point.
            If I misunderstood your reply please let me know.

          15. AhNotepad

            If your innate immunity is overwhelmed, you haven’t got innate immunity. The population has carried many viruses, flu? for example, for millennia, most don’t get sick, a few do. How is isolating anyone who feels well, going to do anything to the overall outcome of virus transmission? Labelling them as asymptomatic spreader is unsound, after all, when people get flu jabs, they are likely to shed the virus, they may even feel unwell, but they don’t quarintine themselves for two weeks, at least in most cases. This rona jobbie has amazing attributes which means it is treated differently and almost exclusively, neglecting most other ailments, and it’s not much different from other FLIs..

        2. Jerome Savage

          Joe – Thanks for the extended video. Mullis puts it or put it, that the test can “infer” something but makes it clear that it does not prove anything and does not indicate that you might be sick (paraphrasing)
          Some are suggesting that the PCR test is not now or not always used for diagnostics. If not, what other test might there be ?
          It was certainly admitted at one government sub committee meeting in Dublin that the test involving cycles (of magnification – my words to try & grasp the concept) is being used but the health official could not confirm how many) Apparently the answer is / was 45.

          1. Joe Dopelle

            Good questions, Jerome!

            1. ‘Mullis puts it or put it, that the test can “infer” something but makes it clear that it does not prove anything and does not indicate that you might be sick (paraphrasing)’.

            That is true of almost everything done in virology. Those little beggars really are very, very, VERY small and scientists can’t grab one and take it apart. All their work is done with solutions of chemicals from which they filter out various bits that they think are important. And as any practising virologist will readily admit, it’s impossible to confine virus without the occasional leak.

            As I recall, one thing Dr Mullis said was that you can use PCR to find more or less whatever you want. To my mind, that is very much to the taste of politicians and NHS managers who desperately want to find lots of COV-SARS-2! (Even if it means abolishing flu for the time being).

            2. ‘Some are suggesting that the PCR test is not now or not always used for diagnostics. If not, what other test might there be?’

            Kary Mullis was the first person to state categorically that PCR was not, and could not become, a useful diagnostic test. Since then it has, nevertheless, been repeatedly used as a diagnostic test. The people who do so like to suggest that, since it is being used as a diagnostic test, it must produce correct results. That’s rather like saying that, if you drink some sulphuric acid as a cough medicine, it will cure your cough. (Well, to be fair, you won’t be troubled with a cough any more!)

            As for “what other test might there be?” that is the point. There isn’t one. There is simply no reliable test for whether a given person is sick because of infection with SARS-COV-2. Even if PCR were somewhat reliable, it would be wrong to use it without first calibrating it. To do that (in accordance with Koch’s postulates) you would have to run a lot of PCR tests and then compare their results with which patients were known to be sick with Covid-19 according to some other criterion. But there is no other criterion! So a person who shows no signs or symptoms can be diagnosed as “Covid positive” purely on the basis of a procedure that is not a diagnostic test – even if they are not ill!

            3. It was certainly admitted at one government sub committee meeting in Dublin that the test involving cycles (of magnification – my words to try & grasp the concept) is being used but the health official could not confirm how many) Apparently the answer is / was 45.

            Anything about 40 is hopeless, because pretty well anything can be found at such a level of magnification. Informed opinion tends to suggest 30 to, at most, 35. A sample that shows up negative at 30 or 35 may turn positive at 40. But you could probably get a positive for cyanide or lemonade if you looked for those. Perhaps that’s how the President of Tanzania’s people got positive results for a goat and a pawpaw fruit.

          2. Harry de Boer

            A Ct of 45 is simply insane. You will pick up all previous infections from which the test subject has already been cured months ago, or whose innate immune system has gotten rid of it without getting sick or noticing anything.
            No wonder so many people are ‘cases’ and ‘hospitalized covid patient’ as they only test for (past and current) covid but no other viruses.

        3. Jerome Savage

          Joe – thank you for your response today 4:11 pm.
          Listening to BBCR4 this evening to someone who marvelled at the brilliance of the human body & how everything interlinked including the immune system. He knew his stuff but decried the focus & theoretical numbness of certain specialists including virologists who cannot see outside their own little patch. He was filled with wonder at the human being and all it’s intricacies. His joy was tangible even over the radio. Your own response is readable & educational, maybe because you’r not a specialist or “expert”. For all of us, reaching out to our fellow man is invaluable especially at this time.
          (& of course I’m not being sexist)

      2. Steve

        “with very clear agendas to talk up”, apart from make more money, I wish I could comprehend what these clear agendas really are. Destruction of the economy and civil unrest, at the end of the day, is not going to help the rich – maybe just the opposite. The agendas seem to be suicidal for all.

        1. Dr. Malcolm Kendrick Post author

          Never underestimate the concept of ‘legacy’. Rich powerful men (almost always men) all seem to realise, at some point, that they will be forgotten blips in time. The richest man in the world, at one point, was Andrew Carnegie, who came from my home town of Dunfermline. In the end, he build libraries and concert halls and other such legacy buildings. He wanted to be remembered long after his death – and so he is. At one point Bill Gates was the richest man in the world, and it seems that he wishes to be remembered, long after his death, as the man who vaccinated the world. He appears as single-minded in the pursuit of this goal, as he was in the pursuit of money earlier in his life. Humans are motivated by far more powerful things than money.

          1. Jeremy May

            Today, according to the papers, is the 81st birthday of John Cleese of Monty Python fame.

            I parody one of M.P.s sketches, Flying Sheep, which features Harold, “that most dangerous of animals, a clever sheep. He’s the ring-leader. He has realized that a sheep’s life consists of standin’ around for a few months and then bein’ eaten. And that’s a depressing prospect for an ambitious sheep.”

            We, the flock, are being duped and led over a precipice by a few very ambitious sheep.

          2. Tish

            “Never underestimate the concept of ‘legacy’.”

            Perhaps it would help if our education systems included proper lessons on astronomy and cosmology. Then people would be properly aware of our relative insignificance, and egotism and megalomania might be discouraged.

          3. Binra (@onemindinmany)

            I choose to differ. And say that the corruption of our science by corporate-gov invested technologism, denies us our true significance, and masks over with banal and absurd teletubby cosmology. Science is being coerced FROM empirical research and incentivised into mathematical computer modelling.
            The problems I see in medicine are also in Cosmology.
            Our true significance is NOT a nothingness of self-lack seeking to mask over in diversionary stories. Mainstreamed science is no less ‘politicised’ and ‘settled’. Climatology is now vastly funded within the remit of AGW and specifically in the frame of CO2 driven GW or CC.
            To the same end goal as the covid mind reset.

            The megalomania of arrogance and ignorance properly belongs to …
            …continued at #8 on

      3. Eric

        The UK is now at 180 daily deaths, about 1/5 the rate of the peak in April. Is that much? Is that as high as it’s going to get? Who are they? And who are those that are severely ill but make it?

        It is already about 15% of typical daily deaths in the UK, so it is already much higher than the estimated prevalence of the virus in the general population, so it can’t be just those hit by a bus or terminally ill even without Covid.

        1. AhNotepad

          Eric, 180 deaths a day from what? The flu and covid figures are now combined, so we have no idea. Given the governments previous misleading by way of these figures, why hould anyone believe them now?

          1. Eric

            At least in spring they tested for flu and corona in Germany if someone had symptoms. I know serveral doctors and nurses whom I trust. I think we’d know if a flu wave was underway uncharacteristically early.

            Statistics broken down by age etc. are available from the RKI here. Some modelling was done, assuming fatalitiy rates per age taken from spring data, and sadly, the prediction matches the increase we were seeing earlier in October. I am waiting for an update from that group:

            Click to access 2010.05850.pdf

            By the way, I don’t know the lead author, but I used to know the research group at the MPI in Göttingen. They are mostly theoretical physicists, about as far removed from the usual medical and pharma circles as possible, so even if everyone else in this circus had an agenda, they probably don’t.

          2. Eric

            Note that they use age dependent CFRs and an overall CFR of close to 1%. Sadly, their predictions from end of September for the first two weeks of October were mostly correct, as was their prediction for the following two weeks as presented in this update.

            I don’t really see how you can get around drawing the conclusion that the CFR is on the order of 1%. Maybe you can argue that the IFR is lower because not all infections are detected. But this is exactly the opposite of what some here are saying about the PCR test, i.e. that it detects too many and falsely so.

          3. Joe Dopelle

            Especially since total deaths are running at almost exactly the average of previous years. If they are finding any “Covid” deaths they must be stealing them from elsewhere.

            It’s odd that if someone dies of “Covid”, that’ much much worse than if they died of cancer or a stroke or a heart attack or even flu.

            And, of course, if someone isn’t ill at all no one in their right mind would diagnose them with cancer or a stroke or a heart attack – or even flu.

            But, as someone put it, Covid is such a desperately horrible disease that you don’t know you have it until you get a positive test result.

          4. theasdgamer

            Let’s talk about increases in deaths from Coronavirus Derangement Syndrome, which resulted in lockdowns…

            increased suicides…
            increased drug OD’s…
            increased deaths from deferred medical tx…
            increased deaths from misdiagnosing everything (e.g., strep throat, flu) as covid

            …what am I missing?

            Subtract these from total deaths and numbers in 2020 aren’t that different than 2019.

      4. Eggs 'n beer

        I used to think that a rational debate would be possible with the health authorities about vaccination. After all, they are scientists, no? But after attending a public meeting ostensibly to discuss concerns of non-vaccinating parents it was clear that science played no part – discussion was not allowed, their’s was the knowledge and any other opinion was irrelevant. So, just because they are doctors, doesn’t mean that they are scientific. Science is a frame of mind, an attitude. There are farmers, semi-literate, who are more scientific than many doctors. Because of their approach to problems. But because they don’t have a bit of paper after their name, they are nobodies in the ‘scientific’ establishment.
        So yes, we are dealing with sociopathic narcissists who, by their very nature, percolate to the top of the authoritarian spectrum. They care about power and control. We don’t: we just want to be left alone.
        The answer? Apart from a bloody revolution, which would have to be organised outside of social media, I can’t see any alternative to hunkering down for a couple of generations until the corruption runs its course and societal collapse ensues. This might be closer than I think, judging by the way the US and UK are going, and the EU looking very shaky. Train your kids to accept this and prepare them through self-reliance to be survivors.

        1. Joe Dopelle

          “I used to think that a rational debate would be possible with the health authorities about vaccination. After all, they are scientists, no?”

          Mmmmm…. They are scientists, yes. But scientists who like large sums of money and bags of prestige. And professorships and lucrative book and TV contracts. And generally being celebs.

          There are still scientists who are wedded to truth and who only want to help people. Perhaps 99.99% of them. But nobody notices them, because they’re busy all week doing science.

      5. Martin Back

        “As the graphs clearly show, in the first half of 2020 excess mortality occurred only in a few European countries, mainly in Italy, Spain, Switherland, France, Belgium and England (recognizable by the “prongs” in the curves). These graphs provide the irrefutable evidence that this phenomenon cannot be linked to a new potentially deadly virus. For not only did the excess mortality occur only within a very short period of time, with a steep rise and equally steep fall in the mortality curve within two to three weeks in April – and thus also outside the usual flu season. No virus can produce such „prongs“”

        The authors posit that the use of drugs like HCQ in dangerous doses on very sick people in the early days of the pandemic was responsible for the large number of deaths in some countries.

        1. AhNotepad

          From an article on, it seems HCQ is a facilitator rather than the drug that does the work. It is zinc that gives increased resources for virus fighting, and HCQ is there to provide a way of getting the zinc into cells.

          1. theasdgamer

            It has been theorized that HC has two or three other antiviral modes of action as well as being a zinc ionophore. There is some dispute whether HC is actually a zinc ionophore or not. Inorganic biochemists don’t use HC for that purpose, I am told.

    2. Steve-R

      Over at Craig Murray’s blog he reminds us that on one cruise ship where everyone was tested, 84% of those who tested positive had no symptoms. So it is entirely likely that this is why so many ‘cases’ are coming out of the woodwork when huge numbers of ‘well’ people are being ‘tested’. Just what you would expect when, as Prof Openshaw said this morning, many of us have protective T-cell cross activity with sars from previous infection with common cold coronaviruses.

    3. LA_Bob

      Fortunately, the NYT editorial wasn’t paywalled. Makes a lot of good points. From the editorial,

      “Prior administrations, too, have tended to err on the side of releasing less data than more on public health problems.”

      Seems to be characteristic of anyone acquiring power. They campaign on transparency and govern with their cards held close. To be fair, rivals for power will jump on anything, innocent or not. But disclosure should be the rule.

      Congress should open an investigation after the election. FOIA requests should go forward. But I won’t hold my breath. Look how some of the leaders handle their masks (Pelosi, Schumer, Nadler, others). They don’t seem to take the pandemic seriously beyond theater.

  35. anonymous

    Is COVID worse than a full blown Fascist Dictatorship?

    On one hand, pulmonologists do not really care about mundane things such as avoiding a civil war. On the other hand, epidemiologists and virologists are trying their best effort to discover at least one difference between politicians and pathogens. They claim that “more research is needed”.

  36. David Bailey


    As someone pointed out above, your censorship almost certainly is performed automatically, or at least an automatic process is used to locate potentially ‘undesirable’ observations.

    With that in mind, I think you should try using some gentle obfuscation along the lines of Vernon Coleman. Thus rather than explicitly stating the CFR value you compute, on Facebook it may be better to write it thus:

    “The number of people infected by COVID is estimated to be 750 million, the number who have died is estimated to be 1 million. The CFR can be computed by dividing those two numbers”

    If that still gets censored, the software might be focussed on the acronym CFR, so spelling it out in full might do the trick.

    I think it is worth remembering that AI is probably best thought of as AS (Artificial Stupidity), and it is almost certainly easy to fool – particularly when it is used for mass screening purposes.

  37. Nigella P

    According to the ONS, w/c 16th October in England & Wales 684 people died with Covid and in total 10534 died overall.

    So, why are we not up in arms about what the other, just short of, 9000 people died from? Very substantially more people died of things other than those with Covid but I’m not seeing daily analysis and reporting of this, I’m not seeing people cordoning off the cigarette sections in shops (as I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that quite a few of those 9000 were smoking related deaths). Where is the panic about Alzheimer’s, which I imagine is also a significant cause of death? Why aren’t we shouting from the rooftops demanding companies create vaccines against Alzheimer’s (yes, I know it is not a virus!)? I know a few tireless souls are trying to raise the profile of cancer, which will also be up there as a significant killer but shouldn’t we be demanding the Government pours £12 billion into cures for cancer rather than a crappy track and trace scheme – after all nearly 50% of us will end up with some kind of cancer I believe?

    We (or the mainstream media) have become obsessed with Covid to the exclusion of everything else and yet everything else remains more likely to kill us!

    1. Eggs 'n beer

      And don’t forget – YOU are going to DIE! You will always have c. 10,000 people per week dying in the UK. Of something. Nobody dies of old age anymore, the last sickness to tip you over the edge is what gets on the certificate. One grandfather died of bronchitis, and I remember thinking what a weird thing to die of, with antibiotics and stuff. I was only ten at the time, but on reflection I realised that you eventually die of something, and at 89 it might as well be of bronchitis in an English January ….

    2. Norman

      Please would you make clear if you meant ‘with COVID’ or ‘of COVID’.

      There is a big difference and the first is potentially misleading, just as the BBC likes to be at the present time.

      Thank you.

      1. Nigella P

        They died having had a positive test for Covid in the previous 28 days. I don’t know if that means ‘with’ or ‘of’ and unless a post mortem is done, neither will anyone else!

        1. Joe Dopelle

          I have no medical or scientific qualifications, Nigella, but I can do simple logic and that tells me they died “with” Covid unless someone proves that they died “of” it.

          One could test everybody for E. coli – everyone would turn out positive, of course – and then, when they died, say “they died of E. coli”. That might be true of a relative handful, but not for the vast majority.

          It’s one thing to say that a tiny amount of something seems to be present in your body. It’s quite another to assert that that something is lethal.

  38. Peter Robins

    It seems you are not alone in censored. Rod Liddle wrote in the Sunday Times (I read this in The Week – no time in my life to read the ST) about something very similar “How big tech keeps your thoughts in line”. Interesting stuff and starting to make me paranoid!!

  39. JDPatten

    Ah Notepad,
    From Texas Reader:
    “So not just a cse of worrying about fatalities. It’s also important to track and treat more subtle damage that could hurt people for years to come.”

    It’s my conclusion that your conclusion is that nothing must be done. Not until more data comes in.
    Even more data. Enough data.
    The following data is probably not enough for any conclusions to be made. But don’t take only healthline’s word for the data. Use the links. Go to the sources. Study the data.
    How much data is enough? Take time to think and consider.

    1. David Bailey


      If you are like me, you are hopefully cautious about new COVID scares appearing. I think someone wants to keep this scare going at any cost.

      Ask yourself, unless you take a sample of otherwise healthy COVID survivors that were certified reasonably fit pre-COVID, how could anyone properly unscramble COVID problems from other medical problems?

      Also if you go trawling for new medical problems, aren’t you going to need to apply a Bonferroni correction to the statistics? Put more simply, if you trawl for problems you have a high chance of discovering some by chance.

      1. JDPatten

        Yes. And an even simpler way to put it is that you can come across incidentalomas while trolling for problems. By far, most incidentalomas are no worry and just an annoyance. Annoying because doctors insist they must be followed up via protocol.
        But, some are deadly.
        Worth that protocol?
        How do you deal with Deadly, small likelihood notwithstanding?
        Not as I do, I should think.

      1. Frango Asado

        Although drinking a moderate amount of alcohol every day turns out to be better for health than almost any drug on the books. (And a lot more fun).

      1. JDPatten

        Hm. Another conclusion. Even though the tallies of all the various sorts of cases are still rolling in, much less being defined and sorted . . .

        Few are those who consider iatrogenesis. How much of our citizenry is benefiting from not being harmed by standard medical attention?
        Put that in your considerations and collate it.

        Your link to Mr Woods seems rather shallow to me. Both links he includes simply refer back to himself.
        Opinion pieces are entertaining.

        1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

          You make a point I can more easily join with.
          Iatrogenic disease is the third leading cause of death officially in US and UK – and perhaps other developed countries. If I included death by chemo and radiation, it may top the charts.
          For all that there are some who die for lack or fear of treatment, there are others saved thereby.

          The core issue I see is responsibility for our own beliefs – that are revealed as beliefs by disillusion.

          There must be many who see their ‘healthcare service’ as either denied them, dangerous to engage with, and morphing into a PPP that feeds the public to the private sector as a captured revenue stream or useful statistic.

          This must either crush people or inspire them to re-educate as responsibility for health at a much more fundamental level than they knew existed until the floor disappeared.

          I see the belief in crushing denial as something we can choose NOT to use to boost or bolster beliefs that do not stand in truth, and live the opening of perspectives that break the fear and isolation to share in life as practical of helpful steps, as the re-cognition of a love that was discarded, masked over, and lost or broken.

          Without love we are nothing. I can use other qualities of Living – for the nature of ‘living’ is always beyond the words and cannot be patented or copyrighted. To those who mask in the form or wish of love, love’s honesty will seen stark, brutal and terrible – hence the urge to protect the mask. Dis-illusion must mean unmasking or revealing. The mind is ingenious in replacing one illusion with another – without any fundamental change. Conflict is inherent to invested illusion set against simple truth, and the persistence in such ‘self and world’ is the attempt to protect and mask it over by diversionary delay, so as to buy more time against the addressing of an underlying defended misidentification.
          It is apparent in our world that an error that could have been simply corrected in its moment can become a terrible burden of guilt by concealment in denials and lies.

          The attempt to further deny and protect a system of conflict control under masking parody of life, is running as if to control the ‘reset’. The arrogance is built into the ignorance.

  40. financialfundi

    week 35 to42 1st wk Sep to mid Oct ref ONS stats
    year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
    deaths 73,045 73,485 73,163 76,072 73,972 76,335 76,172
    excess deaths 3,275 2,846 1,990 3,987 801 2,394 1,571

    1. Jeremy May

      It copies well enough to see there doesn’t appear to be reason to panic.

      I have to say that when I see the underlying daily death figure jump up, it’s difficult not to feel somewhat alarmed. And it’s easy to see why many people panic.

      I think we still need to see a breakdown of those deaths properly explained.

    2. Peter Swettenham

      Not sure if this rearrangement will follow through onto the web but hopefully it is easier to read!

      Week 35 to 42 (1st wk Sep to mid Oct) – ref ONS stats
      year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
      deaths 73,045 73,485 73,163 76,072 73,972 76,335 76,172
      excess 3,275 2,846 1,990 3,987 801 2,394 1,571

    1. AhNotepad

      It’s a pity the idiot modellers in SAGE aren’t acting on this, instead of wringing their hands and whining the virus will only be controlled if we kill everybody by other means and inflict more POINTLESS LOCKDOWNS.

  41. Frango Asado

    Sorry if this is (slightly) off-topic. But it’s too good not to share…

    I have been reading “Dissolving Illusions” by Dr Suzanne Humphries and Roman Bystrianyk. It’s a fairly comprehensive (and quite horrifying) survey of the diseases that ran riot in the 18th, 19th and early 20th centuries linked to an investigation of the roles played by vaccination and antibiotics in greatly reducing and almost eliminating them.

    Apparently some politically incorrect opinions go back a long time – although the Victorians were able to express themselves much more felicitously.

    “Try re-vaccination – It never will hurt you,
    For re-vaccination hs this one great virtue:
    Should it injure or kill you whenever you receive it,
    We all stand prpepared to refuse to believe it”.

    – From a circular signed “The Doctors”, 1876

  42. Stuart Cairns

    I so wish the Scottish Government would speak to you. I wrote to Jeanne Freeman a few weeks ago but have heard nothing. I think the Scottish Government is not in listening mode.

    Thanks again and keep up the pressure.

    Stuart Cairns


  43. Nigella P

    If you want to understand the frightening constitutional steps our executive Government has taken to rule by decree and authoritarian rule, please, please have a look at Lord Sumption’s Freshfields lecture
    I hope the link works.

    This suggests that Covid 19 is very, very dangerous indeed for our political health!

    1. AhNotepad

      IMoz, to pick on just one cause of death, as I understand it, the UK has found a total cure for sepsis, and nobody dies from that now. There are others.

      1. IMoz

        That probably has more to do with hospitals being empty 😉 but I do know exactly what you mean. The most hilarious part from that table is that you can have intentional or unintentional poisoning as still be counted in COVID-19 fatalities…

    1. AhNotepad

      Jeff, it may have been just a use of stock video to pad out the words. However, it would have been a good idea to make that plain.

  44. Phil w

    I wonder how many in here work in a UK hospital? It’s just I often read these posts and comments and feel heartened that we’re making progress but then I go to work and wonder how these views can simultaneously be held when I see uk hospitals clearly gearing up for a plague. Someone on a previous post lamented that paucity of immunologists in SAGE. Well it won’t help if there were. The immunologists I work with are utterly wedded to the idea that this is a Coronavirus sent from hell by Satan himself.

    This was a conversation almost verbatim that I had with one.

    Me ‘modelling was wrong wasn’t it dr ****?’
    Dr ‘well even if it was a bit out we still needed to lockdown then test track trace vaccinate’
    Me ‘it was more than a bit out. Sir JM CE of rival local trust has told all his employees it was wrong and my mate who works for NHS Improvement told him this.’
    Sheepish silence

    Me’ it’s getting weird out there’
    Dr ‘this is as good it gets’
    Me ‘I beg your pardon?’
    Dr ‘this is permanent’
    Me ‘you’re kidding, you can’t leave people 2m apart with face masks on for ever’
    Dr ‘might have to’
    Me ‘so you’re proposing to live with a virus that we can’t live with we live a sort of living death’
    Dr ‘pretty much. Some people are mask ‘deniers’
    My hand shoots up ‘people like me. Do you mean like a Holocaust denier? Is that what you’re saying?’

    Awkward silence

    Dr ‘pandemic preparedness has been my thing for years’
    Me ‘ok, well having prepared for said pandemic can’t we get back to normal as lots of people seem to suggest we can?’
    Dr’ no, it’s a really nasty virus’

    Me ‘have you heard of Hope Simpson and the theory of seasonal viral reactivation?
    Dr ‘no’
    Me ‘ah’

    Me ‘lockdown will screw over the next generation won’t it? The cost, half a trillion and counting, loss of opportunities etc’
    Dr ‘pretty much, my kids futures are screwed’
    Me ‘so’s mine and I’m not particularly happy about it’

    Dr ‘and we’ll never get a vaccine that works either.’
    Me ‘well why are governments around the world spending billions of taxpayers money on developing a vaccine then?’

    I decide to leave after getting a bit fed up.
    Me’ I wonder what we’ll do if we ever have a real pandemic’.

    So that actually happened almost verbatim. What’s the point in john Ioannidis publishing a paper revising down the IFR if immunologists/infectious diseases doctors won’t change their minds. The disconnect is tremendous. I almost question whether we’re all wrong. Maybe this is the Coronavirus from hell that will kill and keep killing.

    Just doesn’t feel like it does it?

    1. AhNotepad

      Phil w, thank you. I suppose if we sectioned all the nutters with that outlook the mental wars would be overwhelmed. He obviously knows little about anuthing to do with health, nmedicine or disease. He should be first in line for the vaccine.

    2. AhNotepad

      PS would you like to send that to It would add o the knowledge of the available stupidity in the health services.

      1. Phil w

        Thanks. I’ve written to various people about this and similar issues. In particular the fact that the hospitals were empty during much of the first wave while thousands died in social care. I had thought this was a big secret but amnesty international have written about this in their report recently. There were tens of thousands of empty beds around the UK during the first wave. Awful times.

        1. AhNotepad

          The first wave? One could infer from that a second wave. For a particular corona virus there is only one wave, there will not be a second. SAGE is misinforming.

          1. Phil w

            😀 well I knew that. I should have put first wave in commas. Apparently multiple ‘waves’ were predicted at the start. It’s designed to be relentless I fear.

          2. Frango Asado

            That is also something UK Column have been talking about. By adjusting language you can control people’s thoughts. “First wave” is a perfect example: as you point out, it implies that there will be a second wave.

    3. Steve

      An unfortunate side effect of the virus is that it resonates at a frequency of 666KHz, this interacts with the frequency of screen refreshes on smart devices, this causes excessive social media users to have their IQ lowered by around 50 points. FACT, the voices told me…

    4. Martin Back

      From a video interview with Prof Michael Levitt (my transcript):
      “the fact is that viral cases and deaths follow a time trajectory. I think that physicists and theoretical chemists who understand trajectories are way better qualified. The epidemiologists made their normal error. They see their job, not as getting things correct, but preventing an epidemic. So therefore, if they say it’s a hundred times worse than it’s going to be, it’s okay. [Our] mistake was that we listened to them. They said the same thing for Ebola, they said the same thing for bird flu — no one shut down for them. We should never have listened to the epidemiologists. They have caused hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of suffering and damage, mainly on the younger generation. This is going to be a tragedy of– it’s going to make 9/11 look like a baby story. This is much, much worse. I am not against lockdown, I am against stupid lockdown without considering the full picture, i.e. not just combatting a virus that is exactly as dangerous as flu, but also avoiding the economic damage that every country has caused itself, except Sweden. We have really, really failed as a group. “

      1. Christopher harvey

        I think he is referring to you in this piece. In future I will always defer to your knowledge.( unlikely and bad for you)

        Sent from my diPad, excuse les tipos, fautes d’orthographe etc etc.


    5. Eggs ‘n beer

      You could also ask them about Langerhans cells. If they don’t know their function, they (literally) do not know the first thing about immunology. And thus why all this hand hygiene compromises your immune response.

      Langerhans cells are essentially a type of white blood cell that penetrate to the surface of your skin. Contact with a virus, bacteria or chemical enables an immune response through T cell creation, meaning you can obtain immunity without actually getting the disease. So you will have no antibodies. Interestingly Langerhans cells are particularly dense around your eyes, so transferring virus particles by touching a door knob and then rubbing your eyes can give you even more of a boost! They’re also in mucous membranes – two more reasons why vaccines do not mimic nature in their immune activation mechanism.

    6. Jerome Savage

      Phil –
      Re the Hope Simpson hypothesis. It does not seem to sit well with our good doctor Kendrick’s recognition of an illness sweeping thro care homes with devastating effect that is /was associated with incoming infected hospital patients. I admit I hav not delved too deeply in to the H.S. work, well not at all, just basing my opinion on pieces by contributors on these pages.
      Is it simply that a very weak population that becomes infected, will succumb & suffer disproportionately, regardless of the season ?

      1. Phil w

        Thanks Jerome.

        I don’t know if hope Simpson’s new concept fully applies to all seasonal viruses, deadly or otherwise. But I read somewhere that around two fifths of care home deaths weren’t attributable to covid. What did the others all die from? Old age? Delayed, denied or incomplete health care? Either way with hospitals empty in April it shouldn’t have happened like that. I’m sorry I can’t recall the source of that but I think it was the BMJ.

        1. Jerome Savage

          “around two fifths of care home deaths weren’t attributable to covid”
          Might it be possible that early diagnoses were more accurate than later. At the onset, the new phenomenon hastened deaths but the primary cause was one or other or more than a serious underlying condition.
          Later everything was stamped covid – it appears.

      2. KJE

        AFAIK Hope Simpson tried ot infect only healthy people. In a care home, most are unhealthy with low vit D, little fresh air and exercise, lots of prescription drugs, and poor diet, so I’d be surprised if that didn’t make a difference

      1. Phil W

        Hi Tish. It is isn’t it? What I didn’t mention is that we talked about how the performing arts industry, from the great concert halls of the world to seeing my 8 yr old son in a Christmas play, would be gone. He just shrugged his shoulders in an ‘oh well’ sort of way with a comment about how we need to have a conversation about how many lives society is prepared let go with the virus. Unfortunately it seems to not be a conversation our leaders are having. He also said he knew that life would be weird after this pandemic. How could he know and bearing in mind the content of this original blog post how can that view still be held? It’s all so strange.

        I asked my epidemiologist friend who works for NHS improvement what he thought when those images flashed round the world from China. It’s his job as a Strategic Planner to monitor such things. Not much apparently he told me. There are other more serious diseases that if they broke out could be much worse, Even then the CFR he would calculate at less than one tenth of one percent for a 52 year old like me, effectively zero for a child.

  45. Penny

    This dratted virus is very divisive; my husband accuses me of getting information from ‘fringe’ sites, such as this, which contradicts the ‘official’ figures – therefore I, Dr Kendrick, Ivor Cummins and Dr Yeadon, et al, are all wrong about the pandemic, the projected deaths in this country and the benefits of lockdown. I have pointed him to ONS figures as referenced on these sites but he won’t believe anything which is not verified by government figures as shown in the media; he is an intelligent man but still thinks that I’m a bit odd-ball in all this. What hope?

    To be fair there is so much contradictory information out there it is difficult for the average person to understand: the hospitals are overwhelmed; they are not overwhelmed; the influenza vaccine protects against Covid-19; the influenza vaccine makes one more susceptible to Covid-19; there are hundreds of excess deaths; there are not hundreds of excess deaths. I’m boggled.

    1. David Bailey


      I sympathise!

      Maybe you can soften him up a bit, by asking him how he imagined a pandemic? How many people does he know who have had the infection?

      Perhaps the main thing is to persuade him to take Vitamin D, because the ‘health authorities’ aren’t going to pass that information on.

      1. Penny

        Hello David, I have been giving him 4,000iu of vitamin D (plus magnesium and vitamin K2-MK4/7) for some time.

        I keep asking about age profiles of deaths and how many excess deaths but don’t get an answer. This morning’s headlines don’t help my case; in fact most headlines don’t help but then they are not necessarily based on fact.

    2. Carole

      I am in exactly the same situation. We rarely watch the news, have no newspapers, work from home so little human debate and yet my intelligent husband who is reading nothing except possibly the economist for information thinks I am completely deluded and ‘ needs a more balanced view’ because we cannot be in a situation where politicians and intelligent people In positions of influence would inflict this situation on us unnecessarily! If he is in this mindset so are so many more people. Complete blind acceptance of what is being said.
      My question is how can we effect change? It’s nice to read and discuss with you all that things are not right but how do we break out of this stranglehold we are in? I am not normally a banner waver or known for radical views but if I knew how to make a difference I would. I’m not prepared for 2 generations to hunker down as someone else suggested. My children and grandchildren deserve better than that.

      1. Eggs ‘n beer

        If you find a way, let us know. I wish you luck in your quest. I’ve been looking for 25 years re the vaccine debate, 30 years for fats and cholesterol, and 50 years against the Euro and the EEC. At least Brexit finally happened. Two generations …….

        With respect, for vaccines and COVID, we don’t stand a chance. The fear that has been imbued to the sheep is firmly entrenched. Experts rule the roost, and must not be questioned. In fact, questions won’t even be allowed. Wasting experts time will probably be a criminal offence soon – I see that in Scotland even discussing, in the privacy of your own home, that lockdowns should be ended for the benefit of society as a whole although it would increase the risk to older people may shortly be regarded as a hate crime punishable by up to seven years in jail;

        I don’t think that you can change society to that which we all deserve. Society doesn’t want to be changed. It wants to be led by the nose into the ‘safety’ of mandatory lockdowns, face masks, and vaccines. As you can observe from your husband’s attitude the vast majority is aggressively uninterested in contemplating how dangerous COVID is. But you can at least educate the next generations about the dangers of these things so that they will resist them as much as possible. They certainly deserve that, and you’re the one to do it. We’re now into the third generation of no antibiotics, paracetamol/aspirin/ibuprofen, sunscreen, vaccines (although my wife had some) and home births. Even converting our son-in-law, who has been researching vaccines in great detail (I think he was hoping to catch us out!) and has agreed to no vaccines for their kids – yet. And no, we’re not pot smoking alternative lifestyle preppers, but accountants, engineers, teachers living in the suburbs. In society, in fact. And rather healthily. Plus we’re saving a packet too!

        1. Steve-R

          ‘At least Brexit finally happened’

          Well, not yet if you are referring to the ‘unintended’ consequences of a decision based on the bling acceptance of lies and deceit.

          So, as with the faux Pandemic, ‘plus as change, toujours le meme chose’ (forgive my French).

        2. Joe Dopelle

          The brainwashing is deep, wide and very thorough (though, paradoxically, very superficial).

          I have just read the latest Jack Reacher thriller by Lee Child (now with his younger brother Andrew).

          Although I know they are terrible rubbish, those books have been a weakness of mine for 20 years. But the latest one has brought me to a tipping point. Because the villains are all Russians! Not just Russians, though. They are sent by Moscow, and have a few things in common: they are ferocious, bloodthirsty, and sadistic; they are cunning, but incompetent. Naturally Reacher bowls them all over like a bunch of skittles. (None of what I just wrote is a spoiler – it’s all up front in the book except for Reacher winning, which of course is like the law of gravity).

          I was very sad to see Child becoming part of the propaganda apparatus. Did he do so knowlingly and cynically – because it would help his book sell in the USA? Or has he too been conned?

        1. Penny

          The OH was getting quite exercised this afternoon that the graphs I showed him of excess mortality and virus trajectory were falsehoods; he was angry that I’m looking at ‘whacko’ sites written by people without qualifications in this field. I pointed out that many scientists and medics disagree with the government line. I can do no more to explain but we shall see what we shall see.

      2. Martingale

        Probably the only current way is popular discontent, with large scale demonstrations which, if they ever materialise, I would hope are peaceful. I’m not holding my breath though, given that the majority seem to be in favour of all these restrictions. But maybe next year the penny will drop among more people, and hopefully popular disapproval will begin to have an effect on politicians wishing to keep their seats…

    3. theasdgamer

      It’s helpful to know what’s uncertain and what’s certain in order to make better decisions. It’s also helpful to know what’s probable based on past experience.

      40% asymptomatic infections is certain…40% mild infections is certain

      effectiveness of mask wearing is uncertain

      viral clearance by 8 days post symptom onset in most people is certain

      Dr. Brian Tyson treating over 2,000 people at his clinic in El Centro with 1 hospitalization and zero deaths is a probable because his clinic is high profile and people check his numbers.

      The safety of outdoor events is probable.

      The high risk of covid from crowded indoor events is probable.

      The instability of results of PCR tests is certain for _some_ tests.

      Elevated d-dimer is probable for clotting problems.

      The value of HC and ivermectin in early treatment of covid is probable. (They won’t benefit 100% of patients because of factors like aged immune systems, vitamin D deficiency, zinc deficiency, etc.)

      The risk of HC for most people is low–certain.

      Natural herd resistance being attainable for covid is probable.

  46. Tish

    As more people will be working from home, governments could take this opportunity of restricting households to one vehicle, except in special circumstances. Vested interest would no doubt loom here too though. The “mighty” are unlikely to go without.

    Restricting traffic would cut down daily stress levels. It’s hard to go on a journey in England without some hold-up or other. We recently travelled 5 miles in 4 hours. But we are retired and have a small motorhome (our sole vehicle) where we can sit in a lay-by, make a cuppa or meal, visit our loo, have a nap, read, and be quite at home. What of all those unfortunate people trying to make a living? Many roads seem currently full of parked cars. They are obstacles and eye-sores yet it never seems to be an issue on anyone’s agenda.

    1. Jeremy May

      Ha! One vehicle. I’ve been saying this for years Tish. Many of the roads round here (former industrial Lancs) were designed for horse and cart. Now they are jammed solid. I get roundly abused by multi-car households who are not keen on getting walking at all and certainly refuse to get wet walking the school ‘run’.

      There are kids near here going hungry, relying on charity, because breadwinners have lost their jobs, ultimately due to restrctions and lockdowns. That is appalling and heartbreaking. But when I suggest the science, on which decisions are being made, may be flawed and offer alternative ideas, which would include easing restrictions, I get abused. I’m a reckless loony who would see us all succumb.
      There’s not even any logic to the panic.

    2. KJE

      Traffic isn’t like that round here. Yes, there’s slow traffic in lunchtime and evening rush hours, but nothing horrendous. Perhaps we should just go back to using public transport – that would solve traffic hold ups, but I reckon if you are going to catch something it’s probably going to happen at work or on public transport

      1. Jeremy May

        It’s half term now so plenty of space. But, public transport? Last week (while I was smugly zooming past a traffic jam on my e-bike) I passed a stationary bus which was a ‘train replacement service’!

        And I do practice what I preach, we only have one car, and not a very good one at that. If it fails it’s MOT in December (which is a distinct possibility) it will be worth scrap value. My e-bike will be worth 10 times my car! My car works for me, I tell people, not the other way round.

  47. Eric

    One of the main reasons given for the new mini-lockdown in Germany that will supposedly last Nov 2nd – 30th was that at the current growth rates, ICUs would be overloaded by early December if nothing changed. Given that Belgium, France, the Netherland, and the UK are several weeks ahead, what is the situation there? One reads precious little. Today’s official numbers for France show more than 3,000 in ICU, which is about a third of capacity if memory serves right. Are they coping all right because the treatment regime is better than it was in spring?

    1. Martingale

      Currently in France, there’s the same ICU capacity as at the beginning of the Covid epidemic: only a little more than is needed for average needs. There has been no move to boost capacity. President Macron even said as much in his speech, saying that wasn’t the solution. So any epidemic, Covid or other, is likely to move ICU capacity rapidly into saturation — not because it’s so dangerous, but because there’s so little extra capacity to begin with. At the hospital where my wife works (in Alsace) it’s still quite calm, with a few extra cases (cases = hospitalisation, not PCR +ve) but nothing like in March so far. The crisis (if it actually is one: the all-cause mortality figures aren’t taking off, which is surprising, given President Macron said there were 525 Covid deaths in the last 24 hours) seems to be only local, more in the South of France. Perhaps because the epidemic didn’t hit them as hard down there as up here between February and April.

      1. Eric

        Martin, thanks for the report from Alsatia. Can you confirm, if the gouvernment numbers say “patients en réanimation”, that is intensive care, not necessarily ventilation?

        I think the numbers in intensive care are still pretty low in France, at 3377 as of yesterday, considering the infections rates have been high and increasing rapidly for a long time now.

        In Germany, there were 1839 patients in ICU yesterday, but we are several weeks behind on the curve (scroll to “Die Lage in den Krankenhäusern”):

        Is the definition different? Or are we admitting more liberally because we can? Anyway, that curve was one of the main reasons given for the new “lockdown”. It is true, at that growth rate, they would have been full to the brim by December, but I am not sure the extrapolation is valid. What we are currently seeing is that the harder hit counties have stabilized or see slightly receding numbers, and the numbers are exploding in those counties that had low numbers.

        1. Steve-R

          Surely the critical information, that is everywhere lacking/concealed, is the age and co-morbidities of those being hospitalised and admitted to ICU.
          As the good doctor has noted those who have died of this unspecific respiratory disease (virus as yet not properly isolated and properly sequenced) have largely been those in God’s waiting room, averaging 82 years of age and with two or more co-morbidities. The US CDC considers that only 6% of those who died had no ‘known’ co-morbidities (although it is well understood the most of us are deficient in vitamin D and other essential vitamins and trace elements).

  48. Martin Back

    I read all about these second waves and lockdowns in Europe and think, the policy didn’t work the first time, what makes you think it’s going to work now? You’re creating an uninfected reservoir for a third, fourth, fifth wave.

    Let’s face it, Europe has lost the fight against SARS-CoV-2. It’s now endemic and can’t be eradicated. You have to learn to live with it.

    The first thing I’d do is stop testing. It’s a massive money-maker for those with juicy government contracts, but seems to do no good except to alarm the population and frighten politicians into imposing harmful policies.

    If you feel sick, stay in bed. If you feel really sick, see a doctor. If you’ve got the virus, get whisked away to a specialist facility where you get treated by a dedicated team. Keep normal hospitals open for the usual medical problems. No Covid cases.

    The only testing I’d do is sampling to predict the likely Covid load on hospitals. And inform the public what the prediction is, so they can take extra precautions if it looks like facilities will get overloaded. Trust their common sense.

    Allow crowds at football matches and the like. There must be thousands by now who have had Covid so don’t have to worry about getting infected. Maybe set some socially-distanced areas aside where worried people can sit for higher prices.

    Meantime boost people’s immune systems. Encourage vitamin D consumption. Subsidize the pills so they are really cheap, or even give them away. Same with vitamin C. If it’s good enough for Fauci, it’s good enough for everyone. Encourage getting out into fresh air and sunshine.

    Masks optional. No screaming, shouting, coughing or sneezing in crowded conditions.

    1. Martin Back

      Forgot to mention. Anyone feeling sick, possibly with Covid, give them a Covid kit with safe medication they can take at home for themselves — a pack containing HCQ, zinc, antibiotic, vit C, vit D, or whatever the currently established regimen is. Have various pack grades with dosages adjusted to the weight of the recipients, i.e. pack for small child, big child, 50 kg adult, 70 kg adult etc.

  49. R Whitcombe

    I totally despair !! I thought that this site would offer a balanced view, but the quality of some of the responses leaves a bit to desire. I was devastated by one of the first comments on this thread that questioned Malcolm’s grasp of correct English, obviously an attempt to discredit his medical expertise?

    Can we firstly stop the fixation of the political affiliations to this disease. What has Brexit to do with a pathogen – any pathogen? And all this complete ‘Balls’ about Right, Left, Centre, Liberal, Trump, Macron, Merkel, Socialist, Marxists, etc etc plus all the combinations thereof ??

    Secondly can we please try not to use rash stereotypes to define the various risk groups. For example that over 70’s may have an ifr (- NOT csr OK – ) of 10% and above ! Please note that many of our so called Experts and Leaders fall into this group, eg:
    Donald Trump – 74
    Joe Biden – 77
    Anthony Fauci – 80
    Lord Sumption – 72
    Hell, either Trump or Biden are set to be the President of the USA, which has a nuclear arsenal sufficient to render the planet Earth into a Martian landscape at the touch of a button! And yet they may drop dead from a bad cold in 28 days?? Can Malcolm please give us an opinion of the difference between a healthy and physically or mentally active 70 year old and a frail and dependant person in a Hospital or Care / Nursing home, or indeed in their own home?

    Thirdly, on the topic of healthy living and immune function can some Medical / Health professional please, please, give some useful advice other than “Stay Home” & “Wash Your Hands” etc, Perhaps on the absolutely vital Vitamin D’s contribution to the immune system and the little known advantages of Nose breathing over Mouth breathing – This was always recommended to me in my childhood, and in fact in early March this year I decided that, as the scare stories that had began to circulate, I would try and concentrate to Nose breath as much as possible, Subsequently I learnt this was a good policy, whilst researching the pros & cons of Masks! The nose evidently trumps any mask in filtering and neutralising pathogens, plus it injects a small dose of Nitric Oxide into the lungs which helps to improve the blood flow & prevent coagulation – just what the Doctor ordered!

    Last, but not least. The function of T cells. Recently the importance of these cells to the immune function seems to have been severely deprecated by both the Media and – more worryingly – by the Scientific Experts. eg:
    What are T-cells and why have they become a political football …
    Why indeed does a scientific subject become Political ?????????????????
    Seems vitamin D is also in that category.
    I have always been under the impression that the immune system should be subjected to regular training to maintain its efficiency, something I refer to as “Training with live ammunition”. This appears to fly in the face of the “Stay at Home, Stay Safe” edict. Cocooning can only lead to a severely weakened immune response, if any at all. Just ask yourself how does an athlete maintain their ‘Edge’, answer regular training.

    About myself:
    Retired Electronics Engineer.
    Very active, Physically, ( OK just car mechanics, home maintenance & gardening.)

    Mentally active with various hobbies and historical / family research. Interest in current affairs and technology / science.

    Aged similarly to Joe Biden, younger than Fauci.

    Not on any “Medication” except vitamins. ( Never have been, and once informed Doctor, who appeared to agree!!! )

    Rabid pro European and Remainer. Have strong links to Europe by family and friends.
    Believe that UK should have fought to become a leading nation in EU, like Germany did.

    Life long Socialist leanings, had respect for Corbyn. Now politically agnostic / anti.

    Anti Lockdown & Fear-mongering. A few examples of FEAR I’ve personally heard since March:-

    1 A positive Covid test is like a diagnosis of Cancer to some people ……. WHAT !!!!!

    2 Covid is like that, err, Russian err, couple err, was it a London Hotel err, or Salisbury err?? So Covid’s risk ranks with Polonium 210 or Novichok,,OH WOW, I AM SCARED!!

    3 A new virus we never have seen before, we are all 100% vulnerable. Rather gives the impression that it WAS created as a Bio Weapon, or just consider this, quoting Wikipedia:-

    Hoyle and Wickramasinghe have advanced the argument that various outbreaks of illnesses on Earth are of extraterrestrial origins, including the 1918 flu pandemic and certain outbreaks of polio and mad cow disease. For the 1918 flu pandemic they hypothesised that cometary dust brought the virus to Earth simultaneously at multiple locations.

    Well an Alien invasion is certainly scary, although the Hoyle and Wickramasinghe hypothesis does state that Panspermia does not imply Alien as we all are derived from the same source.

    Did Imperial college read John Wyndham’s The Day of the Triffids, or that BBC TV classic The Quatermass Experiment ??? Now Im really scared, OH dear!!!!! Better call Prof’ Bernard Quatermass !!!

    1. Joe Dopelle

      “Did Imperial college read John Wyndham’s The Day of the Triffids, or that BBC TV classic The Quatermass Experiment ???”

      Or “The Andromeda Strain”. Now there’s a proper plague for you!

      Hoyle and Wickramasinghe did mention the odd way in which virus outbreaks just happen, with no apparent nearby physical source – just as if the fell from the sky. (Which doesn’t have to mean from space).

      “An outbreak of common colds at an Antarctic base after seventeen weeks of complete isolation”

      Click to access jhyg00082-0026.pdf

    2. AhNotepad

      R Whitcombe, life is full of disappointments, usually the result of unfulfilled expectations. I have fewer disappointments nowadays as I expect less. A balanced view is a bit like a balanced diet, different things to different people. It’s possible to get some pointers from this blog, but then more research is needed to fill in the spaces. I hope you get the answers you are looking for.

      1. R Whitcombe

        OK AhNotepad. I have indeed done the research in many places this last year and have found what I believe to be a balanced view. My only remaining disappointment is that the message that properly debated science is producing is being side lined by the media and politics. I hoped that sites like this could portray real health information and guidance, but I suppose that may cause problems for professional / career reasons! The Swedish site linked to this one is fairly good in this respect, Sweden appears to be a more open society ?

        1. AhNotepad

          There’s lots of real information either on this blog, or the reference links. It’s just not like buying a reference book though.

    3. Eggs ‘n beer

      “Can we firstly stop the fixation of the political affiliations to this disease.” No, we can’t. Because it is a political disease. The easy answer to the question of the thread “ How dangerous is COVID19?” is: nowhere near as dangerous as the government’s reaction to it. It is a political, bureaucratic disease, all the decisions about its (mis)management have been taken from a political viewpoint by bureaucrats. That is what we’re fighting against, not the virus, which as you point out is unlikely to affect you as an active, healthy person (although a brisk five mile walk every day probably wouldn’t come amiss). Instead you’ve been severely affected by the bureaucratic bungling which has ruined society probably for the rest of your life and you have no way of doing anything about it – which of itself will cause you stress and may lead to an earlier grave than you would hope.

      Brexit? That’s relevant for all the same reasons. Fifty years ago to be anti EEC was to be pro WWIII, just as today to be anti face-mask is to be pro-killing old people. Hopefully it won’t take fifty years for people to realise that COVID is a scam that’s been perpetrated on them in the name of safety or long term benefits, just like the EEC was. But I wouldn’t bet on it. There are still plenty of brainwashed doctors around stubbornly refusing to let go of the great cholesterol con which could be said to have started in 1969 with the AHA call for medical treatment of cholesterol levels.

      Thank you for the details of your political affiliations ……

      1. David Bailey


        I agree 100% – I can only think of two broad possibilities:

        1) The gradual process whereby science came to claim far more expertise than it has, and covers over its mistakes, has reached a point when those who worship “The Science” are being lead by utter fools.

        2) A totally malevolent group in society has studied our worship of science and found a way to destroy us.

        Yes I like your comparison with the EU and Brexit (sadly still to be finalised). I used to feel that if the EEC/EU suppressed war, it was worth it almost whatever it cost. Then the EU started meddling in The Ukraine and actually started a war. That is the number one reason why I campaigned for us to leave.

        Every human organisation evolves over time, be it the EU, or institutional science. At some point they can turn utterly rogue.

    4. Binra (@onemindinmany)

      What you give attention to is your freedom. The noise and the signal are BOTH information, but of different orders and the art of discernment is current, active and present – and not a systemic habit that serves only what you think you want to find (that way lies danger).

      The idea of Panspermia still posits Life as organisms rather than as self-organising energy patterns that underlie and support what we regard as ‘separate wholes’ or lives – as expression of an Indivisible Whole – like D Bohm’s ideas.
      But the idea of viral expression as an adaptive and survival response to toxins would correlate with space dust – which arrives on earth consistently and persistently as a matter of course and which contains organic molecules and toxic compounds – as this dust is also within the domain of ionised or charged plasma it is also affected by Solar electrical conditions that have a capacitance or inductive correlation with our earth’s electro-magnetic boundary. I also correlate such fluctuations with volcanic and seismic activity – the former of which can also spew toxins to our atmosphere.
      The idea that viruses operate a warning and possible adaptive response for new environmental challenge would be very similar to what has been discovered operating through the roots and bacterial-fungal medium that connects trees. The Idea of the Bacterial and fungal Biome as part of an adaptive communication and response system or indeed ‘immune response’ as a biosphere.
      This links in principle with another poster’s recent comment on …
      … continued on

    5. Joe Dopelle

      “I totally despair !! I thought that this site would offer a balanced view, but the quality of some of the responses leaves a bit to desire”.

      That is one of the limitations of open discussion on the Web. It seems that there are quite a few people who (for various reasons) “troll” comment sections like this one. Dr Kendrick’s blog has got off very lightly so far – I think perhaps because the overall quality of comments is quite high and the commenters seem fairly well informed or at least intelligent and open-minded.

      Occasionally one comes across a comment that seems potentially malicious. But one doesn’t like to label anyone a troll without very strong evidence. So I think the best thing to do is to ignore such comments and focus on the better ones. (The rating buttons help – if a comment gets no plus votes and 30 minus ones, it’s a helpful guide).

  50. Fergus Glencross

    So at 0.1 % fatality rate, with 67,000 UK fatalities? We are already at 45,000 deaths with a maximum of 67,000 deaths. Which would imply 45/ 67 = 67% of the uk population has already been infected. Nearly heard immunity levels. Why the recent increase in infections and deaths?

  51. R Whitcombe

    I think we are overestimating the function of the typical immune response. Every year we have the flu and common cold season and many of the population suffer from some ill effects, however in most cases the immune system acts as an efficient gate keeper and manages to eject the “Trouble Maker” with little co-lateral damage. The immune system does not in general, or ever, totally prevent the attacker from contemplating an assault. So if you tested, say for a common cold virus, you would find many positives cases as is happening now with the novel version. Most of those cases are of little consequence being virtually symptom free. A herd immunity in the 60% region has been suggested by various researchers. We appear to be over testing and just measuring the obvious.

    1. JohnC

      Our immune system is exposed to extremely large numbers of pathogens on a daily basis. Most viral infections are asymptomatic and we don’t even realise that we’ve had an infection.

    2. Joe Dopelle

      “So if you tested, say for a common cold virus, you would find many positives cases as is happening now with the novel version. Most of those cases are of little consequence being virtually symptom free”.

      Exactly! Which might help to explain why flu seems to have vanished altogether.

      (Please note that this is another article published by RT, written by an Irish science journalist, whose facts and figures are unimpeachable).

  52. elizabethhart

    I’m no expert, but I suspect things are very, very odd in Australia…
    Consider for example that over the past nine months 907 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19, that’s in a country of 25.5 million people. 819 of those deaths have been in Victoria, population 6.6 million. So only 88 deaths in the rest of the country attributed to COVID-19.
    The majority of deaths have been in people aged over 80 years. Many of these people are likely to have been in aged care facilities and with co-morbidities.
    I’m very suspicious about these deaths being attributed to COVID-19, particularly those in Victoria, because these very low numbers, which were announced in breathless terms every day by the media, have been used to justify restrictions, particularly draconian restrictions in the police state of Victoria.
    Also consider that since 22 January 2020, 27,566 ‘COVID-19 cases’ have been reported in Australia, population 25.5 million, the majority of these ‘cases’ being reported in Victoria, population 6.6 million.
    There is no official definition of a ‘case’ that I have seen – it could be a sniffle ranging to hospitalisation and death? Why won’t ‘the authorities’ clarify the definition of a ‘case’?
    There are currently 2,047 ‘COVID-19 cases’ in aged care facilities in Australia, 1,986 cases in Victoria and 61 cases in New South Wales. Again, I’m suspicious about these numbers.
    8,700,911 tests have been conducted in Australia, with 0.3% positive tests. 3,130,788 of these tests have been conducted in Victoria, with 0.6% positive.
    Extraordinary amounts of money and resources are being expended on these tests, this seems like a gross waste to me.
    Again, I’m no expert, but I feel there’s something not adding up with these statistics, and it would be interesting to have an objective, independent and properly qualified expert consider them…

    Statistics as at 30 October 2020, see Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers. Australian Government Department of Health (this website is continuously updated):

    1. Eggs 'n beer

      Consider the latest series of positive tests reported in Queensland, starting with a 77 y/o woman working in administration at a youth detention centre. They never traced her contact. She lives a fairly solitary life 15km west of her workplace in Ipswich (where they had a fake COVID death earlier this year which caused chaos until the PM results came through) and only had a mild headache – which at the time was NOT on the list of COVID symptoms on the Qld Health, but she still went for a test. Subsequently they tested who knows how many others and found another seven or eight positive results, closed some cafés and restaurants for a few days and locked down hospitals and local retirement/nursing homes. Nobody was sick. If they did have the virus they were asymptomatic, and the WHO have said that only 3% of asymptomatic cases are infectious.

      But every time there’s another case we’ll have lockdown again in some form. It will be never ending while the current lunatics are allowed to run rampant. There is no objectivity, only reactivity in a Pavlovian fashion.

    2. Joe Dopelle

      “There is no official definition of a ‘case’ that I have seen – it could be a sniffle ranging to hospitalisation and death? Why won’t ‘the authorities’ clarify the definition of a ‘case’?”

      Elizabeth, it needn’t be even a sniffle. There is absolutely no requirement for any signs or symptoms – just a positive test. You can be absolutely healthy, get a positive test, and bang! Suddenly you’re a “case”.

      I believe the authorities avoid defining what they mean by a “case” because they have decided to exaggerate the seriousness of the “pandemic” in order to increase their power and control as much as possible while the opportunity lasts.

      1. elizabethhart

        What do you think about this case definition?

        Case definition for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), as of 29 May 2020
        Clinical criteria
        Any person with at least one of the following symptoms [1]:
        * cough
        * fever
        * shortness of breath
        * sudden onset of anosmia, ageusia or dysgeusia
        Diagnostic imaging criteria
        Radiological evidence showing lesions compatible with COVID-19
        Laboratory criteria
        Detection of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid in a clinical specimen [2]
        Epidemiological criteria
        At least one of the following two epidemiological links:
        * close contact [3] with a confirmed COVID-19 case in the 14 days prior to onset of symptoms
        * having been a resident or a staff member, in the 14 days prior to onset of symptoms, in a residential institution for vulnerable people where ongoing COVID-19 transmission has been confirmed
        Case classification
        1. Possible case:
        2. Any person meeting the clinical criteria
        3. Probable case:
        4. Any person meeting the clinical criteria with an epidemiological link
        5. OR
        6. Any person meeting the diagnostic criteria  
        7. Confirmed case:
        8. Any person meeting the laboratory criteria

          1. AhNotepad

            LA_Bob, who cares about rona? For most people it is not a problem, as with other diseases, and certainly a lot less than tuberculosis, about which almost nothing is being done.

  53. Dr Alan Hearsum

    Not unusual to have high death rates in the world. Quite s few from ordinary folk dropping bombs on ordinary folk in Europe. We’re we as concerned then about the deaths rate, or could influence the outcome eh! So what has changed why has this virus suddenly come out of China? We seem to be running around in the whole world like hens are when their heads are cut off so to articulate are real scientific happening. Why do we want to save and economic society that is doing its best to end the world in any case. Let’s just do pug best to support the health service manage this and introduce better methods of fighting fires around the world. Why save economies around the world on car and more and more aircraft production so people can get from a to b
    faster and faster? Let’s close the economic world down now and get rid of this virus this coming year and agree to play a kind of ecomic world like one of those famous board games where can all live a life by agreeing to put the lid on the box for a while. That does not mean we should not go to work. The work that replaces economic work would make sure it if value based like cleaning the streets, more health work with few delivery vans and more people slowing down this fast world
    We live in.

    1. AhNotepad

      Dr Alan Hearsum, excellent idea. First would you let us know in which field you have your qualification of Dr? Would you provide a list of permitted works to which people can go, or do? I for one would like to do something value based. It would be useful if you can provide an example of where shutting down the economy has resulted in the disappearance of a virus. This is such exciting stuff.

    2. KJE

      I actually quite liked my life before all this and If I didn’t have a car I couldn’t go to work. OK, let’s ban planes and go back to eating only dried and pickled food in Winter as it won’t be possible to get fresh food fast enough by boat. Definitely let’s ban all wifi as it is so damaging to insect and plant life (and probably humans), and so that means satellite TV is also out, but most of it isn’t worth watching anyway. It’s important for people to have jobs even if those jobs are intrinsically worthless (like most in the Local Authority which are only there as their own regulations mean paper has to be pushed) as it fulfills a social function and need for self-worth. I’ve saved money to see em through retirement as I resent people like you suggesting that it gets taken away from me by changing the “economic world”. I don’t think serfdom to the elite is a better prospect. We can already treat this and most other illnesses quite adequately, so let’s just stop scaremongering, stop lockdowns and over reaction, and get on with our lives without being bombed back to the middle ages

    3. Frango Asado

      “Quite [a] few [deaths] from ordinary folk dropping bombs on ordinary folk in Europe”.

      Surely “Western armed forces dropping bombs on ordinary folk in Asia and Africa”? Violent deaths in Europe (and the UK and the USA) are insignificant – noise level – compared to the (literally) millions who have been killed by “liberal interventions” in mainly Muslim countries.

        1. Joe Dopelle

          Unfortunately, David, the US government’s behaviour has nothing at all to do with the current president’s preferences or even wishes.

          Wars – far away abroad, of course, where only insignificant foreigners get killed, maimed and bereaved – are profitable for the people who own the US government (and have done ever since before it was founded).

          The president, Congress and most of apparatus of democratic government are merely decorative. They enable plausible deniability of the “Deep State”.

          As Mr Putin has repeatedly said, in his calm realistic way, presidents come and presidents go but US policies remain exactly the same.

          1. Steve B

            Tsars and tyrants have come and gone but Russian foreign policy stays the same

            Don’t ask me for proof of this. Just take a trip to any neighbouring country and ask the locals.

    4. David Bailey

      I think of this dreadful situation as rather like a primitive society that encounters a period of drought, so their religious experts recommend a small number of child sacrifices to appease the gods and flatten the curves.

      Anyone who dissents to this plan is also killed, lest the gods get angry.

      After a while, the rains have still not come, so the experts specify a larger scale culling of children and animals to appease the gods.

      Just as they are about to kill the few remaining children, someone asks, “Are we sure that our religious experts know what they are doing? Maybe vengeful gods aren’t really responsible, or they hate us for murdering children?

      Is our society going to have than moment of doubt?

      1. Janet Love

        Not very likely – love to be rong on this one – the flouride in the water has done it’s job…
        (lowered IQ)

  54. Tish

    Is this not the case?

    The world has been preparing for a pandemic for some years.
    The world has got its groups together that have thought of some advantages to them that the reaction to a pandemic could bring.
    The pandemic is nowhere near as bad as was hoped.
    The solution has been to exaggerate it.

    1. Steve

      The UK undertook an emergency role play exercise in 2016 (?) involving the emergency services, Government and the Military to investigate a pandemic scenario.
      One of the outcomes was a recommendation to fund the health services appropriately. This was ignored by the Government. One must also wonder what other outcomes were discussed.

      1. Phil W

        I can recommend a book called The Pandemic Perhaps by Carlo Caduff. It describes how we ended up with the idea of ‘pandemic preparedness’ as a way of dealing with a pandemic It seems to be based on mass hysteria and misunderstanding of how seasonal viruses behave. It covers the swine flu pandemic but also describes how governments went into blind panic at just the thought of a virus leaking from a lab despite reassurances from virus researchers saying it would be unlikely we would ever end up with another Spanish Flu type scenario. It’s freely available on most online book sellers.

        1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

          The drills and regulatory structures and lockstepping of services to cope with ongoing ‘pandemics’ have been extremely effective in setting up a command and control system by the back door that shows no capacity to humanly respond to actual needs or even recognise what they are. But is very much aligned with global social and economic programming and restructuring and carries all the hallmark signature of masking deceits or Orwellian doublespeak.

          One could write books to flesh out how it all happens – but then we have just fleshed it as our experience. We have lived how it happens even if the fact hasn’t altogether hit home.

          Reaction always seeks to get back to what was interrupted or to get away from the interruption or get rid of it. I feel the call is to feel for where to live from rather than react to. Spiritual resource is not really to boost or bolster our agenda, but to support and align a true basis for living. Rather than masking in false virtues set as social currency.

    1. AhNotepad

      I can’t say about HCQ, but quercitin is available. According to, the function of both is to get zinc into cells. It seems zinc does the work and you just need a way of getting it in.

        1. jamesDownUnder

          Quercetin also in apples, specifically the skin. Zinc abundant in oysters.. so eat plenty, plus apples to keep the NHS away washed down with a nice red… which also has pleiotropic cardiac benefits according to Dr K. 😉

      1. Frango Asado

        That account worries me on purely logical grounds. If the immune system – which of course evolved naturally – needs zinc to be in cells, surely the body has a natural way of getting the zinc into cells.

        1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

          Bear in mind that the age of average ‘with covid’ fatality is generally higher than the average lifespan.
          Cellular functions degrade for a number of reasons.

          All you need is ‘unnatural blocking factors’ resulting from toxins or a condition that depletes quicker than normal uptake. Modern industrial processes have unleashed a vast cocktail of toxins many of which are new to our biology. I have read that arsenic depletes zinc in the body. There may be others. As adequate Vit D levels seem to be much less susceptible to this there are other immune functions that are either weak, blocked or cross reacting (dysfunctional).
          That zinc deficiency is part of the hypoxia disease condition assigned to covid 19 seems likely in terms of the effectiveness of making zinc supplementation and aids to cellular absorption.

          Evolution apparently turned OFF our vit C production that most mammals have built in.
          Is that logical? Are you making a god of evolution?

          Logic is premised on assumptions and has no other way to proceed, I don’t see that empirical conditions need fit our current logical assumptions but rather we pay attention to clinical observations, test theories and apply logic to trying to prove them wrong.

          Malnutrition and toxic burdens including psychic-emotional stress are logical conditions for disease pathology – some of which is the body’s functional detoxification – or sacrifice of peripheral function to maintain ‘core services’.

          Science generally follows the money and there is not a lot of money in researching health but lots in finding ways to intervene or block and suppress symptoms, at a cost to health, while apparently making us safe. All logical to the predicate in private profits, captured revenue streams and the political and economic means to defend them.

          What percentage of the total population do you estimate to experience the hypoxia as a severe clinical condition?

          1. JDPatten

            “Bear in mind that the age of average ‘with covid’ fatality is generally higher than the average lifespan.”
            Did you really mean to say that? Your commentary is generally too densely verbose to make easy sense of, so it’s hard to tell if you mean that those who live beyond that expiry date should have cashed in our chips back then; should not be the drain they (we) are on societal support; don’t really matter; should leave room for the next generation(s). Or not. ??
            I suggest that you read some Hemingway; take some writing style pointers. Simplify. Clarify.

          2. ShirleyKate

            I agree with you JD. As an 80 year-old with no ‘morbidities’ (luckily) I’m fed up with the attitude that we’re cluttering up the planet and should ‘cash in our chips’. Thanks to the attentions, several times, of the NHS I have survived this long. Maybe I/we should apologise for that?

          3. Jerome Savage

            Unable to respond to JDP directly. My mother entered a nursing home at around 90 years of age in good health but obviously weakening but not in any distress. A prolific walker right up to when she entered care. Presented with a do-not-resuscitate order (DNR) order, it was signed – half reluctantly. There is little doubt that my mother could have been kept alive for some while longer, were it not signed – by me. Was I wrong to sign it ? The attempts to prolong life in the teeth of this new Virus suggests things may have changed and that DNR should not hav been signed.

          4. JDPatten

            You make the best decisions you can in the circumstances you’re in at the time. Don’t try to second guess yourself now.

            My mother lived her life happily on her own for twenty years. At 86, with worsening COPD and a AAA (abdominal aortic aneurysm) that I ! authorized surgery for, she lived a mixed reasonably happy/ occasionally depressed six more years. Near the end I !! authorizes a DNR. She ended reasonably undistressed, reasonably resigned.
            It makes a great difference if your aged parent retains reasonable mental acuity in such circumstances.

            Have I second guessed my original authorization? The DNR? You betcha. But I live with them comfortably now, after a few years.
            It’s not fun playing God, but somebody’s got to do it sometimes.

          5. Jerome Savage

            JDP thanks for your response. You may hav missed my point. DNR appears to conflict with a new argument, that we now must protect the old vulnerable. “Dont kill your granny – wear a mask” & suffer lockdowns, that we know are causing other deaths (eg the BHF report identifying 26,000 excess cardiac related deaths up to Sept 10 in the UK). DNR is replaced by
            ” cause untold damage, eg health related, social, economic to protect those who are dying”.
            Ok slightly facetious to drive home my point.

          6. Binra (@onemindinmany)

            You responded to my point?
            I was writing to the feasibility of zinc being a factor in covid associated hypoxia to one who thought it illogical. (And then to JDP who somehow thought I was advocating mandatory euthanasia).

            But in terms of politics by deceit, from the very outset I saw the Orwellian doublespeak and recognised a masked attack on civilisation such as we have/had, and a targeting of the vulnerable under cover of using them as leverage. The medical masking – like any masking – doesn’t truly invalidate the virtue or truth of what is being masked in or as – but our social acceptance of fraud does undermine, devalue and corrupt trust in science, reason and life, so as to feed a false view of health, body and life, as sickness and weakness. It is the mask that is sick and weak and always in need of boosting, funding, and regular sacrificial rites. In this sense I am using ‘mask’ for a corrupted or mistaken model. If you step outside the mask, you may be socially debited or excluded.

            ‘Questions that cannot be asked’ – (or criticisms that cannot be made) – provide cover (masking protection) for loveless, or hateful and coercive agenda. Fear of exposure of such agenda then armours the mask further. It’s a death spiral masking as ‘control’ perceived as conspiracy to run masked or evasive agenda. Perhaps this is the natural course of a dying civilisation looked at in the large. However I also associate death with ripening to seed or harvest and an apparent death to pupation is not what it seems. While I am alive and have consciousness, I have and live perspective. The mind is ‘locked down’ by its own predicated self-definitions. As if a masking persona of wishful thinking can become stuck on, physically inescapable and locked in deadly fears as our human conditioning – not least by masking in distraction and diversion as a way to buy time for self-illusion set against reconciliation with truth.

          7. elizabethhart

            ShirleyKate, re your comment: “As an 80 year-old with no ‘morbidities’ (luckily) I’m fed up with the attitude that we’re cluttering up the planet and should ‘cash in our chips’. Thanks to the attentions, several times, of the NHS I have survived this long. Maybe I/we should apologise for that?”

            I’m wondering, what do you think should be done in response to this virus which apparently isn’t a threat to most people?

            Do you support lockdowns, social distancing, masks etc? If so, how long do you think these should be imposed on society?

            What do you think about vaccination for coronavirus? Who should have it?

            JDPatten, I’m also interested in your views.

        2. Steve-R

          You would like to think so, but I guess that it needs researching to see what exactly acts in the body to ensure that zinc, which I understand is readily excreted and is not kept anywhere against a ‘rainy day’, can be utilised as an anti-viral when needed.
          Maybe it is a sort of back-up that confers an advantage, considering that quercetin is likely part of a palaeo diet anyway and zinc the same for those eating the right things.

          I rather suspect that we haven’t evolved with that as our main defence against pathogens, and that Vitamin D is far mor important. On which note the Grauniad is reporting ‘doctors?’ Asking HMG to fortify milk and bread with D3 as the advice to take it as a supplement is a failure – doubt that 10,000iu per diem will be the result.

  55. AhNotepad

    Sweden is often mentioned in lockdown discussions, some thinking they have taken a fr more sensible route than most of the authoritarian, almost if not actually tyrannical governments elsewhere. Here is an article by Sebastian Rushworth Despite what appears to be a far better response to rona, there are plenty of zealots in Sweden itself who would have the population locked down and quaking in its boots, just like the rest of Europe and many other countries. Luckily, the Swedish response was handled by an epidemiologist instead of the UK’s political government of occupation, the MPs of which have been served with legal notices, and may end up under indefinite house arrest.


    NOTE This may take an age to load, but it does eventually.

  56. Sasha

    This is off Covid topic but I wanted to ask because it’s related to CVD. As I understand it, there are no studies that show morbidity/mortality benefits with PSK9 inhibitors. Is my understanding correct? I would appreciate any information or links anyone could provide.

    Thank you.

  57. David Bailey

    Here is a very curious article in The Guardian:

    It makes me wonder what is going on. Are some scientists getting scared that they will be blamed for not warning people to keep topped up with Vitamin D, and thus making the plandemic worse?

    Or is it an effort to change the messaging covertly – rather like switching from specific ratios of saturated /unsaturated fats, to talking about a Mediterranean diet?

    Or is it a belated effort to actually give some more useful advice? If so, simply telling people to take 2000 units of Vitamin D might take effect much quicker.

    1. Steve

      Thin end of the wedge. Vitamins today, vaccines tomorrow, you may want to chew a bit on that thalidomide addititive.
      Personally, I do not want ‘the government’ to be adding anything to my food and drink. I’m happy to take into account their advice but please don’t force it down my throat …

    2. KJE

      More likely yet another way to get more “industrialised” food into the shops and put small suppliers of natural/artisan products out of business – USA adds A & D to skimmed milk, so I’d be looking at trade deals, not health, for an explanation

    3. David Bailey

      To be clear, I am not in favour of putting vitamins in food either. For one thing, I would worry that there might be some unwanted chemical reactions happening in the process.

      My point is that many months ago the public would have jumped at the chance to buy their own vitamin D tablets, but this was not included in the messaging – hence Malcolm’s blog on that subject.

    4. Joe Dopelle

      The message is very much in line with corporate and government interests. Namely, “you need Vitamin D but you can only get it by eating Brand X foodlike substance from dear kind MegaCorp, which cares sincerely about your health and wellbeing”.

      Not by any means by getting natural sunshine, eating natural foods or even by taking more or less generic supplements according to your own taste and judgment.

      1. Steve-R

        Not if you live in the UK between Autumn and Spring, not if you wear factor 50 and not if you don’t expose enough bare skin for a sufficient time.
        5000IU In summer and 10000IU in winter is best considering how important D is in so many processes critical to good health.
        Managed to get a couple of comments on the Guardian on D today but there isn’t any hope for some people who think a 10,000IU per day dose is gonna kill ya.

          1. janetgrovesart

            I use “BetterYou.” It’s an oral spray. Also, through this company one can get a VitD test done by an NHS hospital in Birmingham. I’ve just had my second result – 127.8nmol/L – well chuffed. My first test in early May was 83.9nmol/L. My sunbathing has paid off.

          2. jeanirvin

            In the UK I go to They sell Healthy Origins vitamin D which contains cholecalciferol in cold pressed olive oil and a capsule of gelatin, glycerine and water.
            In the US are a good one.

          3. KJE

            I also use Bigvits for many things but I get my vit D from Revital as drops (Bio D mulsion forte 2000iu in a drop). Hideously expensive but has worked well for me (you might need a practitioner referral for Revital). The Better You spray vit D 3500iu or 1000iu works well for many people and is available from many online retailers

          4. Joe Dopelle

            I have no qualifications and am in no way an expert. But just in case it helps to get you started, here is what I and my family take:

            Vitamin D 4000 IU, 365 Softgel Capsules NOT Tablets, Full Year Supply, Easy to Swallow Quadruple Strength Vitamin D3 Supplement
            Brand: Nu U Nutrition

            We take two of those capsules daily, with some food (or cream) containing animal fat. Also, to be safe, we take one Vitamin K2 tablet and two magnesium capsules. Vitamin A is also important, but can best be obtained from food – e.g. a small helping of liver once a week, or plenty of dark chocolate.

      1. AhNotepad

        The video has been reviewed, and I have watched it. It catalogues the FOI request to the UK Health and Social Care department asking for information about the documents they hold to demonstrate the existence of the rona virus They have no such documents, therefore there is no evidence for existence of the virus. All UK MPs have received notice of legal action for fraud.

        1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

          While I follow anything on the questionable foundations – or lack of verified and reproducible fact – for what is being done against the living in the name of our protection, the fact that the UK Health and Social Care department have no record or documentation of the proven existence of the virus is probably because its genetic profile is registered in the place where such info is held, and no one questions that this genetic version is what is is said to be, because its the basis for genetic science (and perhaps a global biosecurity state).
          No one has any viral culture of this virus as an isolate available for research. Though I’m sure ‘matters’ can be taken from the sick – whatever they may actually consist of.

          Andrew Kaufman offers calm and clear rundown of the studies that make all sorts of claims in headings or conclusions that are not born out by the study data – and reveals what the described methodology means when stripped of its obfuscation. He bases his currently non consensual views on a study of the science. But calls for the proofs that are not demonstrated as rebuttals to his analysis. The response is of course to close ranks, wall out and ignore – and smear.

          In line with science, we need to honour empirical evidences, without committing to narrative explanations that rest only on fear, belief or wishful thinking. The Bernican is a feisty fighter – and looks to take the fight to those dishing it out. But I feel it unwise to state it as proof of non existence of Sars-Cov2. Better to state that the evidences offered do not demonstrate the claim and leave the onus on proof to the claimants. Otherwise the counter claim can be subject to a show trial in which ‘Big Guns’ ridicule and vilify those who dare to speak above their station, and ‘history and science is settled’, to consolidate the unproven claim.

          Likewise identity set in non existence of covid19 can sound flat earth if merely asserted as if the opinion makes any difference to anything. Much better to offer perspectives in which others may be prompted to question of to hold the seed of a question that grows.

          The best answer to the covid mess I know of is of recognising fundamental errors in our model of life, the world and everything. But while it worked for us – we lived the world it gave us for better and for worse. I do not see life in the covid world order and is associated systems of human control. There’s no love, joy or freedom to learn by living our choices. It is not security, but death.

          When only our high priest can read the goat’s entrails, we are abnegating our responsibility to idols.

          1. Eggs 'n beer

            Binra, your last comment is the most pertinent IMO. “When only our high priest can read the goat’s entrails, we are abnegating our responsibility to idols.” “Can read” as in “is the only person who is allowed to declare what the entrails say”. In Australia the politicians have delegated (abnegated, abdicated) the whole response to the high priests of medicine, which in many respects hasn’t progressed beyond such druidical practices. The politicians take no responsibility (but, of course, all the credit for any perceived good) for their own actions. They have no concept of the potential to do any research themselves, or risk seeing or hearing an alternative view: the science of the entrails is absolute and should be worshipped unquestioningly. If Getafix declares that the Gods must be appeased by certain actions (mask wearing, isolation, destroying your innate immune system) then Vitalstatistix will enforce it. We need a few Asterix’s to unravel the scam and with a draught of Vitamin D knock the perpetrators into the middle of next week ……

            And now that in Queensland the village have re-elected the idiot, she is firmly grasped with a sense of destiny that her Getafix is infallible and no lockdown is too strong when another positive test happens. No amount of suicides, domestic violence and depression is too great a price to pay. No questions can be asked ….. the entrails have spoken.

          2. Binra (@onemindinmany)

            The closing paragraph was a summary of the rest of the post.
            There are various protections against anyone else reading the ‘signs’.
            But its great ‘mysteries’ only conceal the wizard of Oz.

        2. Jerome Savage

          AHN – Can I refresh memories here please ? We cannot say covid is a hoax. On 11th May Dr. Kendrick wrote “All of a sudden, in early April, the elderly patients I was looking after started to die. One day, there were no cases, then, 24-hours later, we had many. The deaths were strange, quick. One nurse watched four patients develop exactly the same symptoms. A fall, then strange absences (short-term loss of consciousness), then their breathing rate going up and their oxygen levels falling. The patients were remarkably calm, not distressed. Then they died”
          On 2nd June Dr K noted “”COVID-19 does nothing unique – it just does more of it. The idea of a virus causing and inflammatory response, followed by DIC is not new. Influenza A has also been shown to do this. As highlighted in the article ‘Aberrant coagulation causes a hyper-inflammatory response in severe influenza pneumonia.’
          ‘Influenza A virus (IAV) infects the respiratory tract in humans and causes significant morbidity and mortality worldwide each year. Aggressive inflammation, known as a cytokine storm, is thought to cause most of the damage in the lungs during IAV infection. Dysfunctional coagulation is a common complication in pathogenic influenza, manifested by lung endothelial activation, vascular leak, disseminated intravascular coagulation and pulmonary microembolism.”
          So it’s clear that Covid is or was not a hoax. It had affects and a spike in deaths in April. The problem lies in the world’s continued overreaction to it, especially now that it’s no longer of relative consequence. What is contended is that the reaction is counter productive & is now in itself, the cause of deaths & major social & economic dysfunction with a legacy of distress to come. Eg. the legal profession is now saying that the justice system is quickly losing credibility, one reason being the length of remand times prompting guilty pleas, just to get a charge & get it over & done with. (Ref BBCR4 Sunday 1st Nov. late afternoon)

          1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

            Where’s you due vigilance Jerome?
            The assignment of a focus upon hypoxia as a complication to respiratory disease again assigned to covid on very shaky grounds but UNPRECEDENTED hysteria, does not mean we have had or are having an epidemic that meets or matches the propaganda, or has ANY justifications for the restructuring of the NHS, of viable jobs, businesses and LIVES, of state funded wages, under state directed plunder and destruction of what remains of our way of life – with NO voice or part in the decisions, and no opening to any voice of reason or entreaty.

            The amazing fact is that the mind controlled WANT this, support it, and protect it against disclosure as fraud.
            The disease condition you point to was a LOT more dangerous because of the panic driven TREATMENT.
            Underlying lack of D2 is a major factor in the severity of the disease conditions. The ability to ignore this is the addiction to fear porn, and a glee taken in destruction from behind the master’s power. So who is the ‘master’ that deals in helicopter money and global reconstruction right down to locally funded and bolstered enforcement? For it works deceit – even to those its seems to favour.

  58. jmcakismet

    Here is an interesting video presentation that demonstrates that COVID-19 is not quite as dangerous as we in the west appear to think it is. The President of Tanzania is addressing the people after sending fake samples for testing for COVID-19. The surprise was that some fo the fake samples came back positive for COVID-19. The samples that were positive included, sheep, goats, pawpaw fruit and durian fruit. We need more politicians like this honest man.

    1. Frango Asado

      Reminds me of this (in Lockdown Sceptics today):

      ‘I get about a dozen emails like this every day. Something has gone very wrong at NHS Test and Trace.

      ‘Just heard an amusing anecdote from my taxi driver today. He explained that he and three members of his family went for a test (as he’d been in contact with someone infected). When they got to the centre they were told there was a four-hour wait, he said “f**k that!” and they all left without being swabbed… Thirty-six hours later all four of them received a text that they had all tested positive and had to isolate by law for 14 days! And that system cost us 12 billion pounds???’

  59. Stuart Cairns

    Dear Dr Kendrick

    Thanks again for your work on this. It’s very much appreciated. Can I please check my understanding of calculating CFR? I assumed it to be the number of deaths / number of (positive)cases, but I don’t come up with the same CFRs as you for Iceland and Singapore.

    For Iceland = 4000 cases & 11 deaths = CFR of 0.26% but 11/4000=0.28%

    For Singapore = 60000 cases & 28 deaths = CFR of 0.02% but 28/60000=0.05%

    Am I doing something wrong here?

    Also, if rates are increasing in the northern hemisphere because of the onset of winter, should they be and are they decreasing in the southern hemisphere as they go into summer?

    Thanks again

    Stuart Cairns


  60. AhNoteapd

    Ok all you people with brains (I rule myself out on that one), “How dangerous is COVID-19? Or even “Is there COVID 19?

    Listen to all of this, but note at around 25 to 30 mins there is a reference to Sars Cov-3 (yes, you read that correctly, Sars Cov-3) in a paper published in 2007. Not that anyone has cultured even a COV-2 virus invivo. This is 45 mins which raise substantial questions

  61. Irene Wood

    Thanks Dr K – great site and info. dispensed with much needed humor! Also, thanks to excellent fellow blogger discussions and some invaluable links.
    I would be very interested if anyone can provide factual references to answer these questions:
    Specifically :
    Has the Sars-CoV2 virus been isolated? (When, by whom)
    If so, has Sars-CoV2 genome been fully mapped?
    If either of the above is “No” then:
    From where do they get the genetic “sequences” that are the target of amplification in the RT-PCR test?
    What evidence exists that such genetic “sequence(s)” are unique to Sars Cov2 (as distinct from other coronaviruses), or as distinct from genomes of any other organism, bacterium, virus, grasshopper etc out there?
    Furthermore, how could this “genetic sequence” selection in early 2020 possibly accommodate:
    1) changing viral genetic code from constant mutation as the virus passed through tissues of multiple hosts over time?
    2) different strains of the virus geographically (several strains were reported early 2020 so what would strain variation be like now after several months)?
    3) matching various commercial versions of the RT-PCR rest (or more accurately their “genetic sequence”) appropriately to different strains?
    As a lay-person I have no idea how different strains or ongoing mutation might vary genetically or if this would be significant, (can’t understand how it would not be). However, in the absence of virus isolation and/or complete genome mapping what is the fundamental premise of the test?

    (Thanks for blogger link of Kary Mullis stating clearly that PCR is a manufacturing process and useless as a diagnostic tool).

    Blogger “Eric” on Oct 29th provided this link in attempt to answer virus isolation question:

    However, first paragraph states:
    “The ongoing outbreak of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) poses a challenge for public health laboratories as virus isolates are unavailable …….”

    So RT-PCR “test” questions remain…. fundamentals fuzzy ……

      1. Irene Wood

        Dear Ah – thanks! That link certainly answered a number of my questions. Now I have a slew of new ones which I will post shortly! Cheers.

    1. Eric

      Irene, the linked journal article appeared January 23rd 2020. Virus isolates were not available when tests were divised and the article written in early January.

      1. Irene Wood

        Thanks Eric. That is true – the article was early 2020. However it appears that there has been zero success in purifying and isolating the virus up to the present time, (according to Ah..’s informative link by Dr Tom Cowan who cites more recent studies by CDC. Buried in all of them is an admission that the purified and isolated virus is “unavailable”.) I would welcome any intelligence or studies you may have come across to the contrary.

        As a thought – we cannot know at this time whether “unavailable” is a smoke screen for data protected under National Security and that opens up the whole can of worms of origin!.

    1. Carole Simpson

      What an unbelievable interview. I understand that perhaps the scientists are not responsible for looking at the costs but SAGE is full of other professionals -economists, mathematicians etc. and surely ‘the costs’ have been debated somewhere. What a narrow view of the situation to only look at covid death predictions…..Also, the joke that a month of lockdown will give the track and trace team time to get better organised…… long do they need? Perhaps if we were seeing actual illness and symptoms as the threat rather than the possibility of asymptomatic spreading it would be easier for them. Common sense and feeling unwell generally mean people stay at home with symptoms! I’m sure Ive read somewhere probably on here that the chance of an asymptomatic person spreading a virus is so small as to be insignificant. Of course significance apparently no longer means anything in science?

      1. Jerome Savage

        Based on an interview with Jay Bhattacharya Professor of Medicine at Stanford University, a very warm and intelligent human being, there are no records of children infecting adults.

        1. Eric

          Which is not the story that played out in Israel, as documented by the age / infection rate charts by Eran Segal. There, especially in Orthodox communities, it was the schools that drove infections into the older population.

          1. Jerome Savage

            Methinks ProfessorJay Bhattacharya,, who is actually pro mask to an extent, might be better qualified ?!

          2. KJE

            I also wonder what makes Israel different form everywhere else, as it seems that it is very rare for children to spread the infection. Is it genetic? Or is it related to the high degree of skin covering (though not so much for children) stopping vit D production – always long sleeves and long skirts and wig for women, and jacket and trousers with brimmed hat for men. This could be important as I live in one of the largest (perhaps the largest) orthodox community in Europe. Does it mean that it will work differently in that community from the rest of the population?

          3. Eric

            Methinks not 🙂 You quoted Prof. Bhattacharya as saying that there are no records, and the twitter thread by Eran Segal dated Oct. 7th (“What went wrong”) provides compelling data that the outbreak in the Orthodox community was triggered by the reopening of Orthodox boys’ schools.

            On a side note, I think you are trying to work from personal observation and impressions. This can be very misleading when you try to draw conclusions.

          4. Jerome Savage

            “compelling data” peer reviewed I presume. Unless we can see infections moving between different social groups its difficult to prove cause rather than co- incidence.
            Re “work from personal observation and impressions” – I’m not WORKING from personal observation and impressions, I’m making personal observation and impressions which I do not apologise for. It’s also a fact that no CV19 reported deaths have been reported in this region other than in care homes. Statistical analysis is difficult with zero outcomes. Nationally, there is no excess deaths and anecdotal evidence of missed appointments etc is not supported by any official investigations. We do know that an Ulster TV investigation highlighted 6,000 missed cancer appointments in Northern Ireland up to end of June.

  62. Eric

    Interesting article about Israel, where the situation was very much out of control by mid September, and where the circuit breaker was unexpectedly successful in bringing down infections even if it devastated small businesses because of insufficient government support:

    Some links from the article:

    The article seems a little ahead of the twitter threads. Apparently, the 2nd lockdown was not as strict as the first and not stricly followed but wildly successful even in the orthodox population (I have not figured out how, the twitter thread dated Oct 7th still has rising rates in the orthodox population).

    It was certainly stricter than what Spain and France introduced a few weeks ago and Germany introduced now, but not as strict as the new French restrictions. I wonder why the effect of the increasingly tighter restrictions in Spain and France was rather unimpressive so far.

    The report from Isreal makes me feel more optimistic.

    There is an apparently similar article hidden behind a paywall:

    I do wonder about the caption. Strict mask laws were in place in Germany since spring and didn’t keep the rates from surging this autumn. France tightened mask laws in late summer, making them mandatory even outside in more and more cities, and it didn’t keep the situation from spiralling out of control. Actually, a steep rise was what I exected after seeing diners flocking in crowded restaurants in Germany after the first cold spells in September. Even if there were few reports about clustes from restaurants, it was evident that this was not a good idea.

    The Zeit article in German and the paywalled WSJ article are the only hits reporting the success in three pages of google results other than scattered reports of a relaxation in lockdown rules from mid October but without the results. So much for a supposedly pro-lockdown bias in the press.

    1. KJE

      I wonder if it did actually decrease “infections” or if it was just used as a way of giving the govt a way out. After all, you can change testing and ignore what’s really happening (as they are doing in the UK now) and make it prove whatever you like. I hope our govt will say it worked and let use go back to living our lives (apart from those whose jobs and businesses have been destroyed), or will they continue until everyone is either on the dole or an employee of a big multi-national with no more small or independent businesses left.

        1. KJE

          I’ve got to the stage where I don’t believe anything any politician says. But you could increase testing but run 25 cycles instead of 45 and get fewer positives. We don’t that they did, but we also don’t know that they didn’t, but the degree of drop seems too great to be believable without some change to testing – or does a lockdown just delay infections/”cases” so they’ll still happen but just a few months later in susceptible people, in which case you destroy your economy for no benefit?

          1. Eric

            Ok, this sounds like a reasonable objection. I think it is unlikely that they did but don’t know how to confirm this.

            The idea is to slow infections so that those badly ill can get adequate treatment, until an effective and safe vaccine is available or until a majority of the popuation are immune after a low dose exposure that triggers a symptomless or mild infection. The latter may be wishful thinking, now that ICUs all over Europe are filling up rapidly. We have no way to compare this to the situation in spring because there was so little testing back then, so we don’t really know if fewer infected end up in ICU compared to earlier this year.

            It is also pretty evident that those countried that did not control their infection rate well are suffering as much economically as those who did.

          2. KJE

            Haven’t seen any signs here that ICUs are filling up any more than usual for the time of year. Every year we’re told that hospitals are unable to cope and the same shots of patients on trolleys in corridors are shown. Nothing to see here.

          3. Binra (@onemindinmany)

            From our point of view no benefit and only degradation and destruction.
            But there is a point of view that actively grips and enacts this agenda regardless any extension of reason or relationship as fellow human beings.
            Whether that view is rational to its own priorities and predicates is not to say it it Sane.
            It’s fundamental means is fear and deceit, and so I suggest it is an effect of fear and deceit.
            But my point is that many keep thinking that there is no perceived or desired benefit in this whole mess. R Kennedy Jr made a very short video for the need to call on and align in science as the defence against fear, and manipulative deceits in which the net gain in wealth for a number of key players during the ‘pandemic’ is shown on screen. But it’s far more than wealth. It is leverage over the indebted, the fearful, the ambitious and the needy.
            A corrupted science, a corrupted media and a corrupted political system, all seem to bring science, journalism or politics into disrepute – towards ditching them completely for a technocracy of a corporately driven State. We have perhaps arrived at such a state.

            Much of what we thought was true has been used to deceive us, but we also for the most part wanted to sleepwalk along managed tramlines into systems in which we are not required to think – in the connected and sane sense of the meaning of taking thought and making decisions.
            The perceived benefit of a population of tooled compliance to those who see us as assets, tools or threat and burden is a no-brainer. It is also heartless or dissociated as a financial and corporate entity set in laws that make human outcomes impossible. Systemic evils are heavily defended as too big to fail and so the evil is protected from any real threat by change that distributes pain to the people. Protection became a racket under which we pay by compliance to mitigate our exposure to a top-down pain – largely masked in complex manipulations that serve vested interests and SEEM to mask or mitigate our fears.

            Redemption is the trading in of the false for the true. Nothing true is threatened by a process of true re-evaluation, but fears rising from invested identity will block the willingness to transparency and truth at every turn. So bringing our fears INTO our curriculum is the honesty to our current willingness, and a capacity to grow in willingness. I see an urgency to connect with such a willingness in place of being run by fear unseen. But within our willingness is the need to bring our full attention present and feel our way as a restoring of the basis from which to think, speak and act sanely.
            I have read that on arrival at a triage situation, arriving paramedics have learned (the hard way), to take a time first to calm and centre – so as to act from a capacity to discern and prioritise who can in fact most likely be saved and who cannot – but would take away from helping those who can. Fools rush in because we ‘see’ and react to what we ‘think’ we see, until we can check the thinking with what is actually here. Then having invested in such identifications and actions (and consequences), we are liable to seek justification and cover story at cost of a true learning experience. A fundamental error, given cover story becomes a systemic evil. We know this, but the hate of evil outcome set in rage and vengeance, works against uncovering anything but blame driven narratives. And so it has come to this.

      1. Eric

        Jerome, out of control for me means that the majority of infections can no longer be tracked and hence contained. Or empirically, you get exponentional growth (i.e. an exponent significantly greater than 1) for a stretch of time.

        1. KJE

          And when were they ever really tracked? Using your defintion, the common cold is oput of control as no one ever tracks it, also athlete’s foot and other common infections. Most people have no CV19 symptoms or so mild that no one even knows they were “infected” by SARS-COV-2. What’s out of control is the scaremongering mathematical numpties with no clue about immunology. It doesn’t really matter how many people are infected as so few have bad symptoms and, if the NHS actually tried, it could cure most of them.

          1. Eric

            KJE, maybe they were never properly tracked in the UK, but other countries managed until recently or still manage (mostly Asian countries). I was carefully optimistic well into August that because of mask wearing and acquired immunity through low dose exposure, things had gotten better and we wouldn’t see another wave of severly sick people. Seems now I was wrong.

            Let me add that I don’t appreciate the hostility apparent from some of your posts. This blog didn’t use to be like that.

        2. Jerome Savage

          Hopefully I dont come across as hostile here but, it’s infections that are out of control you imply. And we know that for most (maybe 80%) infections are of little or no consequence. Outside of that if got quickly enough it can be treated. Those who are dying will b in trouble.
          The fact that there is still a focus on something that is invisible to me in my region, to my family & friends & neighbours, makes me so completely unafraid. I am afraid of heart disease & falling off my bicycle as the weather gets cooled.
          (Note to self – must put on my winter tyres)

          1. Eric

            Jerome, you don’t come across as hostile, thanks for the consideration. May I ask where you live? If anywhere in the UK, it would be hard to understand how it can be invisible.

            Strangely, I know only one person personally who has tested positive, but one step further, as in friends of friends or colleagues of my wife, there are plenty of stories of “mild” cases turning out not so pretty.

            Myself, I probably had in in early March but was never tested. If that was it, it was ok but really the strangest cold I ever had.

        3. Jerome Savage

          Re.comment 2020 8:53 am.
          Personally know 2 infected. 55 & 33 year old. Mild 4 day symptoms for former, flu like for latter. Am aware of a care home with 12 fatalities in April & another care home with zero fatalities associated with covid. Am aware of collateral deaths & a missed treatment that is likely to be fatal. Lots of other bereavements from the usual suspects. I live & work in an area that has been designated high covid incidence !!!. with a town of approx 20,000 in RoI. Pandemic of anxiety, suspicion, closed minds, uncertainty, faceless humans and never ending breathlessly bleak busybodies commenting on bad bad bad Corona Virus. Bit depressing really, our inability to realise that life can still be lived and the value of a smile.

          1. Eric

            Not really the situation here in Southern Germany in a medium sized town of 60,000 with an incidence of 120 cases / (week and 100,000 people). Restaurants and bars are closed, farmer’s market held almost as usual, just that most everyone is masked and the stalls have been pulled apart as much as this old inner city allows. People still stop for chats etc., no feeling of panic or depression, just the crowds in front of cafés or inside bars are gone.

          2. Carole

            Interesting points Jerome
            We bumped into an acquaintance in the pub last night having a meal and celebrating his upcoming 85th birthday on Sunday.
            He understands the rising figures but asked why we all needed to discuss the situation at length, sharing figures and views. His reaction was we’ve lived through worse times, there will be better times and please stop treating me like a child or someone who doesn’t understand the situation just because I’m old. I’m neither deaf blind or lacking in mental acuity and I will take precautions as I see fit. I’m here enjoying a meal and a drink with friends and this is more important to me than anything else.

        4. Jerome Savage

          Again, definition of cases ? Are there 120 infections some with symptoms. Assuming some have symptoms, how serious are those symptoms? As we know symptoms will range from mild to life threatening. Life threatening for those with serious underlying conditions, typically in care homes but not exclusively. Pure speculation but the latter might possibly be 10% = 12 per week. Summarising earlier comments on various pages, early diagnosis & treatment should result in good outcomes except of course those who already are severely compromised by ill health. Again, this all raises concerns about the cost & the implications of policy. Knock on effects do not appear to have been considered in any evaluations anywhere but they are now increasingly being realized.

          1. Eric

            Well, the French PM Jean Castex said today that by now a quarter of all deaths in France are due to Covid19. This is after they kept implementing ever stricter rules, culminating in a full lockdown (similar to spring) on Oct 17. Their new cases are beginning to slow but most fatalities got infected earlier than that.

            I can only hope that other countries will skid by because they stepped on the brakes earlier.

          2. AhNotepad

            None of the mitigation actions have worked. Governments increase testing, they get more positive test results, they do more lockdowns, mask wearing, any other pseudo science measures, they keep repeating them, and they make no difference. Insanity is keeping on doing the same things and expecting different results.

            Of course it’s all the fault of the people who go out, or go to work, or don’t wear masks or don’t stand far enough from the people around them. This is all total rubbish in the larger picture, otherwise how did our ancestors survive previous disease outbreaks?

          3. Binra (@onemindinmany)

            The idea is to steer INTO the skid so as to regain traction.
            Cognitive dissonance is where overcontrol is literally out of control – but CANNOT stop trying to regain it.
            If you have ever experienced ANY kind of negative self reinforcing loop or vicious circle – and then received the grace of noticing, you have that release of the ‘fear-mind’ to a restored and felt sense of presence, connection, and direction – that opens this step now as an expression of a practical and integrated response – or even release of a presumed need to ‘respond’.

            Those who initially become aware of such dissonance find it intolerable and have to shut it down – or lid back over, so as to get back to ‘normal’. You never shall and the attempt will only seem to work by denying consciousness under systemic ‘protections.
            But to stop fighting it is to allow a true order to rise from chaos – rather than a thought disorder to mask as domination overt it.
            A fundamental quality of intelligence is the arising or pattern recognition, such as to …

            continued on

  63. elizabethhart

    For information, see below my recent rapid response published on The BMJ. (The referenced version is available via this link: )

    Five years imprisonment and/or a $66,600 fine for refusing coronavirus vaccination?

    Dear Editor

    From Australia, I’m watching the fast-tracked development of coronavirus vaccines with mounting concern.

    Under the Australian Biosecurity Act 2015, refusers of coronavirus vaccination[1] in Australia could be at risk of five years imprisonment and/or a $66,600 fine.[2] [3]

    This emergency power has been active since March 2020, and has been extended to December 2020 [4], with the potential for unlimited extensions.[5]

    It’s possible this emergency power could be extended until a coronavirus vaccine is available, and that people in Australia could be under duress to have coronavirus vaccination, i.e. at risk of imprisonment and/or a huge fine, for a virus which is not a threat to most people under 70.[6]

    We need to talk about this…

  64. elizabethhart

    Here’s an article published three years ago in October 2017, titled: NHS ‘straining at the seams’ and struggling to cope, damning review finds

    People are living longer, but many of these elderly people are not in good health and creating increasing demands on health services.

    These health services are not keeping up with demand, that’s the problem.

    It’s ludicrous and immoral to prevent the free movement of people in society, with the idea of limiting this coronavirus which isn’t a serious problem for most people.

    Other viruses are out there, and other health issues, deal with it, because they’re not going away, they’re increasing.

    The problem is how society is going to deal with an increasing ageing population and its demands on healthcare.

  65. Steve

    I really fail to understand why the government continues to take it’s ‘scientific’ advice from the incompetent Sage group and always wrong fools like Neil Ferguson. There’s no comeback on these idiots when they continually make incorrect claims that do untold harm and destroy the economy. By rights they should be sacked or imprisoned.

  66. Tish

    Some pertinent words of Jiddu Krishnamurti (1895-1986):

    From ‘The First and Last Freedom’ first published in 1954
    On Individual and Society
    ‘Are you and I as individuals to be used, directed, educated, controlled, shaped to a certain pattern by society and government; or does society, the State, exist for the individual? …. That is the problem of the world; whether the individual is a mere instrument of society, a plaything of influences to be moulded; or whether society exists for the individual.’

    He drew attention to all the crippling conditioning – our conditioned reactions – that we express.

    On Simplicity
    ‘We seem to think that simplicity is merely an outward expression, a withdrawal: having few possessions….Inwardly we are prisoners, though outwardly we seem to be very simple. Inwardly we are prisoners to our desires, to our wants, to our ideals, to innumerable motivations….Simplicity cannot be found unless one is free inwardly. Therefore it must begin inwardly….A mind is made dull by the weight of knowledge. A mind is made dull by the past, by the future. Only a mind that is capable of adjusting to the present, continually, from moment to moment, can meet the powerful influences and pressures constantly put upon us by our environment.’

    1. Jerome Savage

      It’s now religion.
      I can post graphs here showing the lower than normal death rates in Sweden compared with other pro lockdown Euro countries, but that just feels like tit for tat. Its about zero covid at any cost as far as I can see.

      1. Eric

        Jerome, I don’t fully understand your post. My point was that for allegedly attained herd immunity in Stockholm, there are too many new positives and new cases in ICU. Deaths are still middle of the road, but we know from elsewhere they pick up a few weeks after the ICU cases.

        1. Jerome Savage

          In 10 days up to 3rd Nov, Sweden recorded 44 covid related deaths (no information on how close to death’s door these poor unfortunates might have been) of which, the latter 2 days recorded 5 and 1 CV19 related deaths in that order – out of a total of about 4,900 deaths for 2 days. (90,000/365 X 2 = 4,931)
          Pandemic ?? Nobody can convince me that things are out of control in bonny Sweden.

        2. Eric

          Thanks for explaining. I can now understand where you are coming from. Sweden has had its numbers go up again only recently. We will not see the deaths resulting from that for another four weeks.

          In Germany, there was a small but distinct spike in April, which was concentrated on the three states that had significant numbers at the time. It is barely visible when shown on the same scale as other countries, but it was there, and this is what may happen again on a larger scale if numbers are allowed to proliferate again. Interestingly, there were 9,500 corona deaths in Germany so far but at an excess mortality of only 7,500, and that in spite of a minor secondary spike in August that was blamed on the hot weather. So the lockdown, distancing, masks seem to be saving other lives that would have been lost to flu, traffic accidents, drinking in bars.

          We are already at > 100 daily deaths in a 7 day average again in Germany.

          graph “Übersterblichkeit” = excess mortality:

          1. Jerome Savage

            Can you quantify or elaborate on your comment “numbers go up again only recently” please ? What numbers ? tests, Infections, cases or deaths ?
            What evidence do you have that “We will not see the deaths resulting from that for another four weeks” ? Four ? Why four ?
            “excess mortality of only 7,500” – my very rough calculation indicates just over 1% excess. Is this a comparison with 2019 when flu casualties were lower than previous years.?
            Incidentally if we compare German death rates up to july for 2019 against 2020 for the same period we note a small reduction of around 850 or 0.14%. Again not exactly indicative of a major health crisis.
            “a minor secondary spike in August that was blamed on the hot weather” but virus Infection is usually associated with cold weather.
            “So the lockdown, distancing, masks seem to be saving other lives that would have been lost to flu, traffic accidents, drinking in bars” – an assumption ? or did death rates accelerate in April slowing subsequently ?
            “100 daily deaths in a 7 day average again in Germany” – rough calculation suggests that is about 0.14% (100 against German September deaths total of 73,010.)
            Interestingly German deaths for 8 mths of 2020 are 629,450 (cannot find August but includes Sept. at 79,010) extrapolated (/8×12,) calculate to 944,175, that’s 0.495% ahead of 2019 but -1.12% below 2018 figure of 954,874.
            Of course built in our mickey mouse model is an assumption that deaths wont exponentially increase over next few months. If it does, it might be as bad as 2018.
            But given that treatment has improved and with that knowledge & German excess ICU capacity, surely a 2nd wave will not be dramatic or as dramatic as in April.

  67. AhNotepad

    The problem with all of this is not knowing what political manoeuvrings are made by those who want lockdowns. Why would I think that? Because the WHO has very recently said that lockdowns are a bad idea. So why the hell do people want lockdowns? To Control a virus? That might be supported in the germ theory of disease transmission, but looking from the terrain perspective there’s not a chance of it having any effect. There is plenty of information critical of the lockdown approach, and it seems to be wanted by politicians fed by mathematical modellers. If you want to know about the herd immunity you have to establish why people are showing the symptoms. Testings, lockdowns, other pointless societal destructive measures have not been done on anything like the present scale, and there were similar numbers of deaths, yet we’re not all dead. You complain about KJE appearing hostile, I don’t see anything other than expressing a view, despite the continuous goading from some. As you say, the blog didn’t used to be like that.

    1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

      We think of WHO as homogenous but it isnt. I think of control as being effective at the critical moments. Once the objective is achieved the narratives are often pulled back, leaving the ongoing situation as the momentum of reaction across institutions and people – in such a way as the people end up carrying the blame.
      While many who want lockdowns are the fearful, there are others who are sympathetic or on board. The ‘Left’ is almost silent on the many violations of rights, the vast shift of wealth and power to billionaires and Corporately captured state. There is no opposition.
      There is of course a gathering of consciousness in the background with a few courageous voices from early on, that questions different levels of the ‘covid’ which SAYS its about controlling a virus – but that makes NO sense whatsoever – unless the ‘virus’ is the internal codeword for us (all).

      As for polls and so forth – I give them no attention.
      There is a case that many were deeply shocked and trained by the blitz of propaganda who are already manage corporate entities to a degree they (we) do not want to admit.
      The politicians are bought, not just with money but with arguments as to the only way forward in a corrupt system that is too big to fail. And so the system is ‘failing’ under controlled demolition, butwith absolutely no sense of ant recognition and repentance for corruption. Rather the consolidation of such controls as the 4th Industrial revolution of a bi-tech globalism.

      If disinfo agents come into online discussions the tenor noticeably changes. I don’t see any point in allowing ‘suspicion’ to work the same effect without any such agent operating! So persist in addressing the issues and not the ‘person’. And ignore noise, or use false claim to offer a clear restatement of fact. The blog used to largely concern itself with the various contributing factors to heart disease! We have more of those now! But perhaps also even more impetus to engage responsibility for health – having been abandoned from ‘above’.

  68. JDPatten

    On the dangers of mask-wearing, an article on Medscape.
    If you don’t have access to Medscape, well . . . get it.
    If you won’t get access, well . . . you won’t have the breadth of knowledge needed for a fully reasoned conversation here.
    (There are mavericks on Medscape too – really.)

    1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

      Medscape’s – top recommendation:

      “Dangers Behind Anti-maskers and Anti-vaxxers: How to Combat Both”

      Are you seeking to follow their instructions JDP?
      I do not support those who seek to promote ‘anti-immune function’, under the masking presentation of protection and ‘making us safe’.

      But I recognise they have a large following who may not be able to wean from their dependencies even though it kills them.

      1. JDPatten

        I do not seek to follow any entity.
        Who you support is not a concern of mine.
        Who you think might have dependencies is not a concern of mine.

  69. Gery

    I hope this will be of interest to many of you here:
    A new and powerful open letter co-signed by 42 UK health professionals.
    PLEASE do also sign if you feel able to do so – it can be signed as a professional or a concerned citizen.
    Malcolm – we would be delighted if you would please consider adding your name.
    This was launched only yesterday and there are already almost 3,000 signatories.
    All instigated by very concerned Clinical Psychologist – Dr Harrie Bunker-Smith.

  70. JDPatten

    You asked for my views.
    Have you noticed how often a softening of political “advice/rules/directives” and attempts to get back to business-as-usual/life-as-usual has been followed by an upswing in infections, cases and then deaths?
    Sure, gathering this kind of info, reporting on it, and acting on it has been full of wrong-headedness and stumbling, but I think Reality is showing through.

    Predict who would get no symptoms, who would get serious illness, who would die in ICU!
    No. I wouldn’t care to do that on an individual basis either.
    The pathogen’s interaction with humanity is still too variable and complex for any smug pretension to prescience.
    Seems to be true:
    Younger people are more likely to be symptom free or have mild cases – and, perhaps, pass it along, IF they get infected.
    There are far too many tragic exceptions to ignore, however.
    Older people are more likely to get seriously ill and to die, IF they get infected.
    Again, there are happy exceptions. Too many to ignore.
    (Load up with C and D? Show me the RCT numbers showing that they’re any sort of barrier against C-19!)
    People with “underlying conditions” of whatever age are in more danger, IF they get infected.

    To ignore or to deny what’s before you – in the world – is like standing in the trench and lighting a cigarette for your buddy. Then lighting one for yourself.

    Human beings are the vector for this virus.
    It cannot do any infecting on its own.
    It can only infect the person it has gained entrance to.
    It is the Interaction of People With Each Other that creates the complex of infective bridges for this pathogen to cross.
    Look at Sturgis, SD! Look at the church in Fitchburg, MA!

    So, as a 76 year-old with a couple of “conditions”, I’m behaving in as prudent a fashion as is workable for me, placing fresh air, distance, and masks between me and any virus. I’m fortunate to have chosen a place to live decades ago that has plenty of space and plenty of fresh air, but even I must occasionally interact.
    (Oh, and I take my C and my D as well.)
    Vaccine? As I’ve said before, It’s got to pass a nominally functional FDA first in any case.
    Then it must get through successful post-approval clinical use.
    Then it has to pass my own excellent conservative doctor’s close scrutiny. (How often can you actually say that you trust your doctor?)
    Then I must consider it myself.

  71. Roger A

    According to stats mined from ONS UK data during the period of the Covid pandemic 2020, 4099 fewer persons died from respiratory disease than during the same period last year.

  72. elizabethhart

    What do you think about what’s happening in Sweden?
    There’s a variety of articles around about coronavirus infections rising in Sweden…
    For instance, here’s an article in the Daily Mail titled Lockdown-free Sweden ramps up coronavirus restrictions in its three biggest cities after seeing infections double in two weeks:
    Prime Minister Stefan Loven says “We have a very serious situation…More and more intensive care beds are now being used to treat COVID patients. The respite we got this summer is over.”
    The article also says:
    Anders Tegnell, the architect of Sweden’s liberal approach to the outbreak, said the transmission of an infectious disease could not be fully halted by herd immunity without a vaccine.
    The scientist went on to describe how the European nation, which last week took its first step towards regional after seeing a rise in cases over the summer, was now at a ‘critical juncture’ after the number of daily cases rose by 70 per cent in a week.
    Mr Tegnell told the German newspaper Die Zeit: ‘There has up to now been no infectious disease whose transmission was fully halted by herd immunity without a vaccine.’
    Despite a rise in the number of cases over the summer, Dr Tegnell said the curve was rising ‘less steeply’ and had not resulted in more people needing to be admitted to hospitals.
    Dr Tegnell continued: ‘We do have more new infections than we did in the summer and we’re taking it very seriously.
    ‘But the curve is rising less steeply than elsewhere. So far the increase has not resulted in more people needing to be admitted to hospitals. All in all, we’re fairly satisfied.’

    Does anyone else see confusing messages there? For instance PM Stefan Loven says “More and more intensive care beds are now being used to treat COVID patients” but Anders Tegnell says “So far the increase has not resulted in more people needing to be admitted to hospitals”.
    Isn’t it interesting how countries in Europe are talking up coronavirus infections again, including Sweden? What is really going on?

    1. AhNotpad

      Terminology is important here, positive test results might be rising, but since more tests are being carried out, there is no way of telling if “infections” are rising.

      1. Steve-R

        Or if the alleged use of 35-45 cycles is picking up old infection of any betacoronavirus sharing the same sequences as the alleged SARS-CoV-2 (a.k.a. RaTG13 a.k.a. btCoV-4991 Or whatever)
        And where has all the influenza virus gone?

        1. AhNotepad

          I was speaking to someone this morning whose daughter is doing some PCR testing. She says a lot of swabs have to be thrown out because of contamination.

  73. Irene Wood

    Dear Dr K,
    RT-PCR Testing Again –
    I have just read this article originally written in French by Dr. Pascal Sacré and translated to English, unfortunately with ALL footnotes omitted from the translation!

    Pretty good article. Of particular interest are statements that the SARS-Cov2 virus HAS been isolated AND not only genetically mapped, but that this is ongoing by various “scientific teams”
    When, where, whom?
    The existence or not of a virus designated SarsCoV2 is a matter of much controversy. I am convinced by your testimony as well as that of other physicians that there is indeed a new, lethal illness.

    Have you (or anyone) come across evidence that validates the following stated in the article?
    “Under Heading RT-PCR does not reveal any virus, but only parts, specific gene sequences of the virus” ……

    (1) “In the case of COVID-19, the element sought by RT-PCR is SARS-CoV-2, an RNA virus”[8]
    (2) “At the beginning of the year, the SARS-CoV-2 genome was sequenced. It consists of about 30,000 base pairs. The nucleic acid (DNA-RNA), the component of the genes, is a sequence of bases. ….. Teams are continuously monitoring the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 viral genome as it evolves [9-10-11], through the mutations it undergoes.
    (3) Today, there are many variants [12]
    All the above infer that the virus has been purified/isolated and fully genetically mapped.

  74. Eggs ‘n beer

    Not dangerous at all – in Taiwan. Seven deaths, population 24m same as Australia but much higher pop’n density. No lockdown, no testing, no masks (any more than usually used for pollution), complete transparency of COVID information (not that there seemed to be much to be transparent about with only 573 cases ….)

    “ According to the lockdown narrative, Taiwan did almost everything “wrong” but generated what might in fact be the best results in terms of public health of any country in the world.”

    1. Carole

      Could it’s high infection rate from SARS have anything to do with potential immunity? Could normal exposure to viruses actually be the way forward??! Obviously with vulnerable people taking more care….!

      1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

        Is there a high infection rate?

        As I understand there are immeasurably trillions of such viruses or cellular debris soup pretty much everywhere, million in any square millimetre and perhaps ‘immunity’ is simply an artefact of the way we look at our relationship with nature. But the concept of a self-healing system might be one that is clear, balanced and functional in regard to assimilation of needs, and elimination of waste or toxins. Periodic flushing may be needed if ongoing maintenance cannot keep up.
        The body finds pathways around blocks to function or it would not have any resilience as a system of adaptive response to challenge and change.

        Regardless our frameworks of meaning, the natural fact is exposure to and adaptation to our environment, which includes seasonality, toxicity and communication within the body as between bodies and perhaps between species. Nothing in statistics for covid suggests to me that lockdown or masks or distancing had any effect on the course of respiratory disease.
        I don’t consider PCR as a sound basis to say anything about infection.

        We get updates for our computing operating systems as a result of bugs, fixes and security concerns. Sometimes these cause a great deal of trouble for some people’s systems. As Gates and co want to hack all of this – for the ‘Benefit of all Mankind’, it might be worth considering virus and bacteria (which can also carry virus) as a communication system, rather than a hijacker.

        Taking more sunshine, fresh air and engaging in the act of caring for almost anything and anyone would certainly increase resilience to disease. Vit D levels are clearly a very major factor in whether symptoms show or are mild or not.

        The idea that we are weak, and must be protected and ‘protected’ is insidiously undermining of natural resilience and resourcefulness. Ideas given acceptance and priority in our mind have consequences and fear can and does operate a self-fulfilling prophecy. Of course we have become weak and open to every kind of further investment in powers that promise protection – under which we become more like domesticated cattle and less like any natural herd.

        If not for the panic of over reaction, covid may have shown as a small bump in the graphs. Ivor Cummings indicated that about 95% of those in the death stats were deemed too frail or end of life to move to an ICU. If those were removed you see a little bump.

        A mountain out of a molehill?
        I’d say so.
        But the regulations HAVE been passed to an effective martial law under global health directives and the narrative is being kept going by every and any minds no matter how foolish or costly, because it is serving a purpose for those who can not only use the global media to propagate and protect it, but redirect unimaginable funding to support it.

      2. AhNotepad

        Carole, what high infection rate? This is a result of looking for a virus fragment, possibly common to more than one virus, using an test method with an unspecified error rate, in questionable circumstances. this is Mike Yeadon, who knows a bit.

      3. Eggs 'n beer

        I think binra is on the money. Exposure to lots of viruses and bacteria, of which SARS is only one. We could make a good start by not bubble wrapping kids. The old term was ‘gutter immunisation’, the building of the innate immune system through kids playing in the street, field, hen house, stream rather than being disinfected every time they touch the front door handle. Some of the adverts for household disinfectants with Mum running round wiping everything make me cringe!

        Next would be allowing infections to run their course for a while. Not rushing to the surgery at the first hint of a sniffle but seeing how it develops before clogging up the NHS and increasing your antibiotic resistance for no reason. I know several families (with kids now in their 20’s) where no antibiotics have ever been used. But most people have been conditioned to expecting them automatically. I know one GP who, fresh from finally qualifying and full of knowledge, felt like making a tape to play for patients; “you have a viral infection. As such, prescribing antibiotics will have no effect on your condition and can only contribute to your building resistance to them, meaning that they might not work when they are actually needed.” Needless to say, after a few years the system ground her down and she’s now going with the flow, happy patients, and building the time bomb.

        All this in conjunction with good diet, exercise and good mental attitude (caring, as binra mentions). Which should go without saying, but as I had to explain to my F-i-l his low D levels are because he won’t make much vitamin D regardless of walking 5 miles a day in the sunshine as he has spent his whole life suppressing his cholesterol levels, and without cholesterol you can’t make D. Not that I can be too critical as he’s nearly 90 and fit as a fiddle, never having taken antibiotics (although he got conned into taking the ‘flu shot a few years ago which nearly landed him in hospital).

  75. elizabethhart

    In regards to the coronavirus situation, are UK Members of Parliament abiding by the House of Commons Code of Conduct and The Guide to the Rules relating to the Conduct of Members?

    Click to access 1882.pdf

    For example:
    Accountability: Holders of public office are accountable for their decisions and actions to the public and must submit themselves to whatever scrutiny is appropriate to their office.
    Openness: Holders of public office should be as open as possible about all the decisions and actions that they take. They should give reasons for their decisions and restrict information only when the wider public interest clearly demands.

  76. elizabethhart

    FYI, see below my recent BMJ rapid response seeking transparency and accountability… The referenced version is accessible via this link:

    Who are the members of SAGE? There must be transparency and accountability for coronavirus policy.

    Dear Editor

    In regards to transparency for the UK Government’s handling of the coronavirus situation, Chris Whitty says “I’m very much in favour of transparency in all areas. I was really pleased that, for example, the SAGE minutes were published – I think that’s exactly as it should be. I can see no disadvantage to openness”.[1]

    But who are the members of SAGE, these people who are influencing coronavirus policy , not just in the UK, but around the world?[2]

    SAGE members are unelected individuals who are wielding great power over policy, which is impacting on the free movement and association of people. This is a very serious matter in our liberal democracies and there must be accountability.

    Currently there is scant information about SAGE members on the GOV.UK website.[3]

    There must be transparency and openness in regards to the members of SAGE:
    – Who are these people, what is their background/history?
    – What are their qualifications and affiliations?
    – Who funds them?
    – Do they have any conflicts of interest?
    – Etc…

    There must be full transparency and accountability for SAGE members, the GOV.UK website must be updated as a matter of urgency.

    1. Binra (@onemindinmany)

      I appreciate your willingness to engage in communication with authorities – or those entrusted with authority, as an expression of caring.

      When I read – I generally go to what speaks to me as the underlying issues – which are not really isolatable to another or to a pathogen – but to a breakdown of communication. So when I write it is not necessarily engaging in the personal or even specific points raised, so much as themes that to my view lack awareness, acceptance and articulation, such as to leave us defined within a mask of conflict – that feeds on conflict that can paralyse as well as inflame – ie ‘lockdown’ and ‘pushback’.

      I felt to put my response on:

  77. Fergus Glencross

    American deaths are almost at 0.1% of the population and rising fast. This says to me that an IRF of 0.1% is way too optimistic. It would have required all Americans to have been infected and a sudden decrease in deaths which isnt happening.

  78. Henry Barth

    Guesstimated deaths

    286,000 COVID-19-related deaths have been reported since January of 2020, or 53 cases for every death. (15.2 million cases divided by 286,000 deaths = 53)

    According to the Centers for Disease Control, only 6% of the reported 286,000 deaths are solely attributed to COVID-19 with the rest attributed to advanced age and co-existent weakened immune systems and co-morbid conditions such as diabetes and heart disease.

    Therefore, the corrected number of deaths attributed solely to COVID-19 is 6% of 286,000 = 17,160 COVID-only deaths, which is a ratio of ~885 cases for every death without an effective vaccine. (17,160 COVID-19-only related deaths in a population of 325 million would be a 0.000053% death rate or 5.3 in 100,000).

    That would mean the number of subjects needed to treat (NNT) to prevent 1 death would be 885. That is the reason why COVID-19 death numbers need to be skewed higher in order to justify vaccination. Hence, older people who have comorbidities + a positive PCR COVID-19 test are considered to have died of COVID-19, not with COVID-19.

    1. Steve Condie

      Some version of this gob-smackingly moronic thesis has been circulating for months.The “corrected number” of deaths “due to” COVID-9 is not 6% of (currently) ~320,000 Americans. It’s ~100% of ~320,000 Americans. A finite number of about-to-be-dead people coincidentally contract COVID-19 in the two weeks before they die (anyway) and a finite number of people die of COVID-19 but were never diagnosed with the disease. At this point the number of each is small in comparison to the hundreds of thousands of deaths. And the net error is almost certainly one of under-inclusion rather than over-inclusion, based on “excess death” analysis.

      Here’s the reality: 60% of all living American adults have at least one condition considered a “co-morbidity.” 40% have two or more.

      But 60% of all adult Americans don’t die every year. Less than 1% do.


      Because they don’t get COVID-19.

      For adult Americans who have co-morbidities, and many of those who don’t, the difference between living and dying is not getting COVID-19. If you don’t get COVID-19, you probably won’t die this year. If you do, you may die due to conditions triggered by the virus – pneumonia, heart failure, kidney failure, etc. COVID-19 isn’t like a tiger which kills you by biting your head off – it’s a virus which causes a variety of biological events in your body which can be fatal. Yes – those reactions are more likely to be fatal if you’re old or have high blood pressure, are overweight, etc. – but if you don’t get COVID-19 those things probably won’t kill you. Not this year, anyway.

      Is that clear enough to cut through the BS?

  79. elizabethhart

    What exactly is your point Steve?

    What do you think should be done about generally elderly people with COVID-19, and dying with COVID-19 and comorbidities?

    And what do you think about this?

    Here’s the reality: 60% of all living American adults have at least one condition considered a “co-morbidity.” 40% have two or more.

  80. Jim Georgiou

    Your analysis is premature of course when you base your figure of 0.1% on the figure of 67,000 deaths. The rate to date at 3rd Feb 2021 is around 106,000. I suggest the scare mongering wait a little longer until you have a more definite death rate. Of course you can just carry on making your predictions based on your bias as a skeptic then look less believable if you are wrong. I for one am neither a believer nor a skeptic but simply protecting myself from what might be. What have I got to lose. However, while I’m 72yo I won’t be taking the vaccination until I assess the noise. I will keep myself safe though, just in case. Better safe than dead I say. Your apology if wrong won’t help me if I’m dead.


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